Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities · 2021. 8. 20. · Predicting the Markets Chapter 11...
Transcript of Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities · 2021. 8. 20. · Predicting the Markets Chapter 11...
Predicting the MarketsChapter 11 Charts:
Predicting CommoditiesYardeni Research, Inc.
September 10, 2021
Dr. Edward YardeniChief Investment Strategist
Mali QuintanaSenior Economist
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
September 10, 2021 / Chapter 11 Charts: Predicting Commodities www.yardeni.com
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Predicting Commodities 1-25
52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2670
170
270
370
470
570
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170
270
370
470
570
670
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100, ratio scale)
9/9
* Weekly from January 9, 1951 to May 26, 1981, then daily. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops,hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Commodity Research Bureau.
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Figure 1.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22200
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C
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100, daily)
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100, daily)
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100, daily)
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100, daily)
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100, daily)
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100, daily)
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100, daily)
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100, daily)
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100, daily)
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100, daily)
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100, daily)
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100, daily)
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100, daily)
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX*(1967=100, daily)
9/9
Note: C = China joined World Trade Organization on December 11, 2001.* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.
Source: Commodity Research Bureau.
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Figure 2.
Predicting Commodities
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202230
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90
120
150
180
210
240
270
300
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360
390
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510
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210
240
270
300
330
360
390
420
450
480
510
540
Jul
CHINA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION*(2005=100, sa)
* Value added basis.Source: China National Bureau of Statistics and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 3.
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-20
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Q2Jul
CHINA REAL GDP & INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION(yearly percent change)
Real GDPIndustrial Production*
* Value added basis.Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 4.
Predicting Commodities
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022200
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600
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-16
-12
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Jul
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CHINA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX
China Industrial Production*(yearly percent change)
CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index**(1967=100)
* Value added basis.** Includes hides, tallow, copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, zinc, tin, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, rosin, rubber, hogs, steers, lard, butter,
soybean oil, cocoa, corn, Kansas City wheat, Minneapolis wheat, and sugar.Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 5.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022100
200
300
400
500
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-12
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CHINA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION & COPPER PRICE
China Industrial Production*(yearly percent change)
Copper Futures Price**(cents per pound)
* Value added basis.** Nearby futures contract.
Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 6.
Predicting Commodities
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85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 245
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CHINA REQUIRED RESERVE RATIO(percent)
Required Reserve RatioLarge Depository InstitutionsSmall/Medium Depository Institutions
Source: People’s Bank of China.
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Figure 7.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20225
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15
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Aug
CHINA M2 & BANK LOANS(yearly percent change in yuan)
M2Bank Loans
Source: People’s Bank of China.
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Figure 8.
Predicting Commodities
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
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3500
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4500
5000
5500
12/24
BALTIC DRY INDEX(1/4/85=100, daily)
Source: The Baltic Exchange.
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Figure 9.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022100
150
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INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & COPPER PRICE(daily)
Copper Futures Price**(cents per pound)
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*(1967=100)
* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.** Nearby futures contract.
Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 10.
Predicting Commodities
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67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 255
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130
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BOOM-BUST BAROMETER* & BUSINESS CYCLE
(four-week average, ratio scale)9/4
* Weekly average of CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, showing four-week average.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 11.
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 252
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BOOM BUST BAROMETER*& BEAR MARKETS IN STOCKS(four-week average, ratio scale)
9/4
Note: Shaded red areas denote S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets.* Weekly average of CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week average, showing four-week average.
Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 12.
Predicting Commodities
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023600
800
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2000
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2400
2600
2800
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3200
3400
3600
3800
4000
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4400
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110
150
190
230
270
310
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9/10S&P 500 INDEX & BOOM-BUST BAROMETER
Boom-Bust Barometer*
S&P 500 Index
* CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims, showing four-week moving average.Source: Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Standard & Poor’s.
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Figure 13.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 202350
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9/2S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & BOOM-BUST BAROMETER(weekly)
S&P 500Forward Earnings*
Boom-Bust Barometer**
* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for the current year and next year.** CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims, showing four-week moving average.
Source: Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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eni.c
om
Figure 14.
Predicting Commodities
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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007-50
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250
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0
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100
150
200
250S&P 500 SECTORS PRICE INDEXES DURING BULL MARKET OF 2002-2007(percent change since October 9, 2002)
Energy (242.2)
Materials (162.3)
Industrials (125.9)
Consumer Staples (40.4)
Health Care (41.4)Financials (92.6)
Information Technology (145.4)
Telecommunications Services (117.8)
Consumer Discretionary (78.3)
Utilities (172.1)
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
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Figure 15.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007-20
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200
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240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
400MSCI SHARE PRICE INDEXES DURING BULL MARKET OF 2003-2007(percent change in US dollars since October 9, 2002)
UK (130.7)
EMU** (223.7)EM* (386.0)
Japan (113.6)
US (103.8)
* EM = Emerging Markets. ** EMU = European Monetary Union.Source: MSCI.
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Figure 16.
Predicting Commodities
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2210000
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EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX (in local currencies)& INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX(daily)
Emerging MarketsMSCI Stock Price Index(local currencies)
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*
* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: MSCI and Commodity Research Bureau.
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Figure 17.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023200
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EMERGING MARKETS MSCI CURRENCY INDEX &INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX (US$)(daily)
Emerging MarketsMSCI Currency Index*
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index**
* Includes Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines,Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, and United Arab Emirates.
** Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: MSCI and Commodity Research Bureau.
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Figure 18.
Predicting Commodities
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022300
350
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550
600
650
700
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.14
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.20
.22
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S&P 500 MATERIALS & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX(daily)
S&P 500 Materials Index(as a ratio of S&P 500 Index)
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*(1967=100)
* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: Standard & Poor’s and Commodity Research Bureau.
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Figure 19.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
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S&P 500 ENERGY & BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE(daily)
S&P 500 Energy Index(as a ratio of S&P 500 Index)
Brent Crude Oil Futures Price*(dollars per barrel)
* Nearby futures price.Source: Standard & Poor’s and the Financial Times.
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Figure 20.
Predicting Commodities
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73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2350
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CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: WORLD(million barrels per day, ratio scale)
Aug
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Energy Information Administration.
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Figure 21.
74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-15
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CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: WORLD(yearly percent change)
Aug
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Energy Information Administration.
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Figure 22.
Predicting Commodities
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70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-40
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WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE OIL PRICE(dollars per barrel)*
* Monthly from 1946 to 1984, then daily.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 23.
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2425
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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: GASOLINE(1982-84 = 100, ratio scale)
Jul
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Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 24.
Predicting Commodities
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79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 242
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CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: SAUDI ARABIA(million barrels a day)
Source: Energy Information Administration.
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Figure 25.
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24.0
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CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: IRAN & IRAQ(million barrels per day)
IranIraq
Source: Energy Information Administration.
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Figure 26.
Predicting Commodities
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79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2410
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CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: OPEC & NON-OPEC(million barrels per day, ratio scale)
Non-OPECOPEC
Source: Energy Information Administration.
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Figure 27.
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2426
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CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: OPEC(as a percent of total world)
Source: Energy Information Administration.
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Figure 28.
Predicting Commodities
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73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 253.5
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CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: UNITED STATES(million barrels per day)
Source: Energy Information Administration.
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Figure 29.
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 252
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CRUDE OIL: ACTIVE US RIG COUNT & FIELD PRODUCTION(weekly)
Rig Count(units)
Production(million barrels per day, nsa)
Source: Baker Hughes Inc. and US Department of Energy.
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Figure 30.
Predicting Commodities
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91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 257.0
7.5
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Jun
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US GASOLINE DEMAND & VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED
Gasoline Usage(million barrels per day, 52-wa)
Vehicle Miles Traveled(trillion miles, 12-month sum)
Source: US Department of Energy.
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Figure 31.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2418.5
19.0
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GASOLINE FUEL EFFICIENCY IN THE US*(average miles per gallon)
* Vehicle miles traveled (billion miles, 12-month sum) divided by Gasoline usage (billion barrels per day, 52-wa)Source: US Department of Energy.
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Figure 32.
Predicting Commodities
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
20
40
60
80
100
120
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200
300
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500
600
700
9/9
9/9
BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*
Brent Crude OilFutures Price**(dollars per barrel)
* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.** Nearby futures price.
Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 33.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022100
200
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9/9
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FUTURES PRICES*
Brent Crude Futures Price(dollars per barrel)
Copper Futures Price(cents per pound)
* Nearby futures price.Source: Haver Analytics.
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Figure 34.
Predicting Commodities
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75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24.2
.8
1.4
2.0
2.6
3.2
3.8
4.4
.2
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1.4
2.0
2.6
3.2
3.8
4.4
Aug
WORLD CRUDE OIL REVENUES & OUTLAYS*(trillion dollars, annual rate, ratio scale)
Crude Oil Revenues & Outlays*
Note: West Texas Intermediate Spot Price from 1975 TO 1984, Brent Crude oil price thereafter.* Monthly crude oil production (in mbd) times 365 days times dollar price of a barrel of Brent crude oil.
Source: Energy Intelligence Administration.
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Figure 35.
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2425
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US CRUDE OIL REVENUES & OUTLAYS(billion dollars, annualized, ratio scale)
United StatesCrude Oil Outlays*Petroleum Refineries Shipments(saar)
* Monthly crude oil production (in mbd) multiplied by 365 days and the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil.Source: Energy Intelligence Administration.
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Figure 36.
Predicting Commodities
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70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24100
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S&P GSCI SOYBEANS INDEX(December 31, 1969=100)
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
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Figure 37.
47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 2520
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100
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20
60
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140
180
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300JulUS CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: FOOD
(1982-84 = 100, ratio scale)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 38.
Predicting Commodities
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50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 002
4
6
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12
2
4
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12WORLD: POPULATION & PROJECTIONS(billions)
Estimates (through 2019)
Projections (2020 through 2099)
Source: United Nations.
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Figure 39.
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00.0
.5
1.0
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2.0
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.0
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1.5
2.0
2.5WORLD: POPULATION & PROJECTIONS(yearly percent change)
Estimates (through 2019)
Projections (2020 through 2099)
Source: United Nations.
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Figure 40.
Predicting Commodities
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1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 20951.0
1.5
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5.5WORLD: FERTILITY RATE(children per woman)
Estimates (through 2019)
Projections (2020 through 2095)
Source: United Nations.
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Figure 41.
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 5025
30
35
40
45
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55
60
65
70
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70WORLD: URBAN POPULATION & PROJECTIONS(as a percent of total population)
Estimates (through 2019)
Projections (2020 through 2050)
Source: United Nations.
yard
eni.c
om
Figure 42.
Predicting Commodities
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68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2430
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930
1230
15301830213024302730
30
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1230
15301830213024302730
Nixon Ford Carter Reagan Bush I Clinton Bush II Obama Trump
GOLD PRICE*(dollars per ounce, ratio scale)
9/9
Source: The Wall Street Journal and Haver Analytics.* Cash price, London gold bullion, PM Fix. Monthly from 1968 through 1974, then daily.
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Figure 43.
75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25100
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Jul
GOLD PRICE* / CPI
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Wall Street Journal, and Haver Analytics.* Cash price. London gold bullion, PM Fix.
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Figure 44.
Predicting Commodities
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75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 250
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9/3
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GOLD PRICE & FED’S MAJOR TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX
Nominal FRB AdvancedForeign Economies Trade-WeightedDollar Index**(January 2006=100)
Gold Price*(dollars per ounce)
* Cash price, London gold bullion, PM Fix.** Countries included in the Advanced Foreign Economies (AFE) index: Australia, Canada, Euro Area, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, and the
United Kingdom.Source: Federal Reserve Board, The Wall Street Journal, and Haver Analytics.
yardeni.com
Figure 45.
75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25140
180
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9/7
GOLD PRICE & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX(weekly)
Gold Price*(dollars per ounce)
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index**(1967=100)
Source: Commodity Research Bureau, The Wall Street Journal, and Haver Analytics..
* Cash price London gold bullion, PM Fix.** Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.
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Figure 46.
Predicting Commodities
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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023225
400
575
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925
1100
1275
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2150
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1975
2150
D A
9/9
GOLD CASH PRICE(dollars per troy ounce, daily)
200-day moving averageNote: D = On July 26, 2012, ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to defend the euro. A = On April 4, 2013, Bank of Japanimplemented "Abenomics" monetary policy.Source: The Wall Street Journal and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 47.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20223.5
3.0
2.5
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GOLD PRICE & 10-YEAR TIPS YIELD(daily)
10-Year TIPS Yield(percent, inverted scale)
Gold Price*(dollars per ounce)
Source: Federal Reserve Board, The Wall Street Journal, and Haver Analytics.* Cash price. London gold bullion, PM Fix.
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Figure 48.
Predicting Commodities
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70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24100
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S&P GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX(nearby futures price, daily)
Source: Standard & Poor’s and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 49.
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-50
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S&P GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX & OIL PRICE(daily)
Goldman Sachs Commodity Index(nearby futures price)
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Index(dollars per barrel)
Source: Standard & Poor’s and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 50.
Predicting Commodities
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