Chapter 10 Solar Energy - Solar Energy - Australian ... · PDF fileChapter 10 Solar Energy...

AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RESOURCE ASSESSMENT

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Chapter 10Solar Energy

10.1Summary

K E y m E S S a g E S

• Solarenergyisavastandlargelyuntappedresource.Australiahasthehighestaveragesolarradiationpersquaremetreofanycontinentintheworld.

• Solarenergyisusedmainlyinsmalldirect-useapplicationssuchaswaterheating.Itaccountsforonly0.1percentoftotalprimaryenergyconsumption,inAustraliaaswellasglobally.

• SolarenergyuseinAustraliaisprojectedtoincreaseby5.9percentperyearto24PJin 2029–30.

• Theoutlookforelectricitygenerationfromsolarenergydependscriticallyonthecommercialisationoflarge-scalesolarenergytechnologiesthatwillreduceinvestmentcostsandrisks.

• Governmentpolicysettingswillcontinuetobeanimportantfactorinthesolarenergymarketoutlook.Research,developmentanddemonstrationbyboththepublicandprivatesectorswillbecrucialinacceleratingthedevelopmentandcommercialisationofsolarenergyinAustralia,especiallylarge-scalesolarpowerstations.

10.1.1 World solar energy resources and market • Theworld’soverallsolarenergyresourcepotential

isaround5.6gigajoules(GJ)(1.6megawatt-hours(MWh))persquaremetreperyear.ThehighestsolarresourcepotentialisintheRedSeaarea,includingEgyptandSaudiArabia.

• Solarenergyaccountedfor0.1percentofworldtotalprimaryenergyconsumptionin2007,althoughitsusehasincreasedsignificantlyinrecentyears.

• Governmentpoliciesandfallinginvestment costsandrisksareprojectedtobethemainfactorsunderpinningfuturegrowthinworld solar energy use.

• TheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)initsreferencecaseprojectstheshareofsolarenergyintotalelectricitygenerationwillincreaseto1.2percentin2030–1.7percentinOECDcountriesand0.9percentinnon-OECDcountries.

10.1.2Australia’ssolarenergyresources• TheannualsolarradiationfallingonAustralia

isapproximately58millionpetajoules(PJ),approximately10000timesAustralia’sannualenergyconsumption.

• SolarenergyresourcesaregreaterinthenorthwestandcentreofAustralia,inareasthatdonothaveaccesstothenationalelectricitygrid.Accessingsolarenergyresourcesintheseareas

islikelytorequireinvestmentintransmissioninfrastructure(figure10.1).

• Therearealsosignificantsolarenergyresourcesinareaswithaccesstotheelectricitygrid.Thesolarenergyresource(annualsolarradiation)inareasofflattopographywithin25kmofexistingtransmissionlines(excludingNationalParks),isnearly500timesgreaterthantheannualenergyconsumptionofAustralia.

10.1.3KeyfactorsinutilisingAustralia’s solar resources• Solarradiationisintermittentbecauseofdaily

andseasonalvariations.However,thecorrelationbetweensolarradiationanddaytimepeakelectricitydemandmeansthatsolarenergyhasthepotentialtoprovideelectricityduringpeakdemandtimes.

• Solarthermaltechnologiescanalsooperateinhybridsystemswithfossilfuelpowerplants,and,withappropriatestorage,havethepotentialtoprovidebaseloadelectricitygeneration.Solarthermaltechnologiescanalsopotentiallyprovideelectricitytoremotetownshipsandminingcentreswherethecostofalternativeelectricitysourcesishigh.

• Photovoltaicsystemsarewellsuitedtooff-gridelectricitygenerationapplications,andwherecostsofelectricitygenerationfromothersourcesarehigh(suchasinremotecommunities).


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AERA 10.1

Annual Average Solar Radiation

0 750 km

Existing solar power> 100 kW

1000 - 2000 kW

Transmission lines

100 - 300 kW300 - 600 kW

600 - 1000 kW

Megajoules/m² per day

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

24

Figure 10.1 Annualaveragesolarradiation(inMJ/m2)andcurrentlyinstalledsolarpowerstationswithacapacity ofmorethan10kW

Source: BureauofMeteorology2009;GeoscienceAustralia

• Relativelyhighcapitalcostsandrisksremaintheprimarylimitationtomorewidespreaduseofsolarenergy.Governmentclimatechangepolicies,andresearch,developmentanddemonstration(RD&D)byboththepublicandprivatesectorswillbecriticalinthefuturecommercialisationoflargescalesolarenergysystemsforelectricitygeneration.

• TheAustralianGovernmenthasestablishedaSolarFlagshipsProgramatacostof$1.5billionaspartofitsCleanEnergyInitiativetosupporttheconstructionanddemonstrationoflargescale(upto1000MW)solarpowerstationsinAustralia.

10.1.4Australia’ssolarenergymarket• In2007–08,Australia’ssolarenergyuse

represented0.1percentofAustralia’stotalprimaryenergyconsumption.Solarthermalwaterheatinghasbeenthepredominantformofsolarenergyusetodate,butelectricitygenerationis increasingthroughthedeploymentofphotovoltaic

andconcentratingsolarthermaltechnologies.

• InABARE’slatestlong-termenergyprojections,

whichincludetheRenewableEnergyTarget,a5

percentemissionsreductiontarget,andother

governmentpolicies,solarenergyuseinAustralia

isprojectedtoincreasefrom7PJin2007–08

to24PJin2029–30(figure10.2).Electricity

generationfromsolarenergyisprojectedto

increasefrom0.1TWhin2007–08to4TWhin

2029–30(figure10.3).

10.2Backgroundinformationandworldmarket

10.2.1DefinitionsSolarpowerisgeneratedwhenenergyfromthesun

(sunlight)isconvertedintoelectricityorusedtoheatair,

water,orotherfluids.Asillustratedinfigure10.4,there

aretwomaintypesofsolarenergytechnologies:


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CHAPTER 10: SOLAR ENERGY

• Solar thermalistheconversionofsolarradiationintothermalenergy(heat).Thermalenergycarriedbyair,water,orotherfluidiscommonlyuseddirectly,forspaceheating,ortogenerateelectricityusingsteamandturbines.Solarthermaliscommonlyusedforhotwatersystems.Solarthermalelectricity,alsoknownasconcentratingsolarpower,istypicallydesignedforlargescalepowergeneration.

• Solar photovoltaic (PV)convertssunlight directlyintoelectricityusingphotovoltaiccells.PVsystemscanbeinstalledonrooftops,integratedintobuildingdesigns andvehicles,orscaleduptomegawatt scalepowerplants.PVsystemscanalsobeusedinconjunctionwithconcentratingmirrorsorlensesforlargescalecentralisedpower.

24

20

16

12

8

4

0

0.30

0.25

0.20

PJ 0.15 %

0.10

0.05

0

Solar energy consumption (PJ)

Share of total (%)

1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2029-00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 30

YearAERA 10.2

Figure 10.2 ProjectedprimaryconsumptionofsolarenergyinAustralia

Source: ABARE2009a,2010

%

AERA 10.3

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

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0

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01999-

002000-

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022002-

032003-

042004-

052005-

062006-

072007-

08

TWh

2029-30

Solar electricity generation (TWh)

Share of total (%)

Year

Figure 10.3 ProjectedelectricitygenerationfromsolarenergyinAustralia


Electricity

Solar Radiation

Photovoltaics (PV) Solar ThermalSolar cells, photovoltaic arrays Heat exchange

Solar Hot WaterConcentrating Solar ThermalParabolic trough, power tower,parabolic dish, fresnel reflector

AERA 10.4

Process HeatSpace heating, food processing

and cooking, distillation,desalination, industrial

hot water

Figure 10.4 SolarenergyflowsSource: ABAREandGeoscienceAustralia


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SolarthermalandPVtechnologycanalsobecombinedintoasinglesystemthatgeneratesbothheatandelectricity.FurtherinformationonsolarthermalandPVtechnologiesisprovidedinboxes10.2and10.3insection10.4.

10.2.2SolarenergysupplychainArepresentationoftheAustraliansolarindustryisgiveninfigure10.5.Thepotentialforusingsolarenergyatagivenlocationdependslargelyonthesolarradiation,theproximitytoelectricityloadcentres,andtheavailabilityofsuitablesites.Largescalesolarpowerplantsrequireapproximately2hectaresoflandperMWofpower.Smallscaletechnologies(solarwaterheaters,PVmodulesandsmall-scalesolarconcentrators)canbeinstalledonexistingstructures,suchasrooftops.Onceasolarprojectisdeveloped,theenergyiscapturedbyheatingafluidorgasorbyusingphotovoltaiccells.Thisenergycanbeuseddirectlyashotwatersupply,convertedtoelectricity,usedasprocessheat,orstoredbyvariousmeans,suchasthermalstorage,batteries,pumpedhydroorsynthesisedfuels.

10.2.3WorldsolarenergymarketTheworldhaslargesolarenergyresourceswhichhavenotbeengreatlyutilisedtodate.Solarenergycurrentlyaccountsforaverysmallshareofworldprimaryenergyconsumption,butitsuseisprojectedtoincreasestronglyovertheoutlookperiodto2030.

ThehighestsolarresourcepotentialperunitlandareaisintheRedSeaarea.Australiaalsohashigherincidentsolarenergyperunitlandareathananyothercontinentintheworld.However,thedistributionofsolarenergyuseamongstcountriesreflectsgovernmentpolicysettingsthatencourageitsuse,ratherthanresourceavailability.

World solar resourcesTheamountofsolarenergyincidentontheworld’slandareafarexceedstotalworldenergydemand.Solarenergythushasthepotentialtomakeamajorcontributiontotheworld’senergyneeds.However,largescalesolarenergyproductioniscurrentlylimitedbyitshighcapitalcost.

Theannualsolarresourcevariesconsiderably aroundtheworld.Thesevariationsdependon severalfactors,includingproximitytotheequator,cloudcover,andotheratmosphericeffects. Figure10.6illustratesthevariationsinsolar energyavailability.

TheEarth’ssurface,onaverage,hasthepotentialtocapturearound5.4GJ(1.5MWh)ofsolarenergypersquaremetreayear(WEC2007).ThehighestresourcepotentialisintheRedSeaarea,includingEgyptandSaudiArabia(figure10.6).AustraliaandtheUnitedStatesalsohaveagreatersolarresourcepotentialthantheworldaverage.Muchofthispotentialcanbeexplainedbyproximitytotheequatorandaverageannualweatherpatterns.

Development and Processing, Transport,Resource Exploration End Use Market

Production Storage

Industry

Solar photovoltaic

Electricity

Solar collection Thermalstorage

CommercialPower plants

Resource potentialSolar thermal Electricity

Water heating Residential

AERA 10.5

Batterystorage

Developmentdecision

Figure 10.5 Australia’ssolarenergysupplychainSource: ABAREandGeoscienceAustralia


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Primary energy consumptionSincesolarenergycannotcurrentlybestoredformorethanseveralhours,nortradedinitsprimaryform,solarenergyconsumptionisequaltosolarenergyproduction.Longtermstorageofsolarenergyiscurrentlyundergoingresearchanddevelopment,buthasnotyetreachedcommercialstatus.

SolarenergycontributesonlyasmallproportiontoAustralia’sprimaryenergyneeds,althoughitsshareiscomparabletotheworldaverage.Whilesolar energyaccountsforonlyaround0.1percentofworldprimaryenergyconsumption,itsusehasbeen

increasingatanaveragerateof10percentperyearfrom2000to2007(table10.1).Increasedconcernwithenvironmentalissuessurroundingfossilfuels,coupledwithgovernmentpoliciesthatencouragesolarenergyuse,havedrivenincreaseduptakeofsolartechnologies,especiallyPV.

From1985to1989,worldsolarenergyconsumptionincreasedatanaveragerateof19percentperyear(figure10.7).From1990to1998,therateofgrowthinsolarenergyconsumptiondecreasedto5percentperyear,beforeincreasingstronglyagainfrom1999to2007(figure10.7).

AERA 10.6

Nil

1.0 - 1.9

2.0 - 2.9

3.0 - 3.9

4.0 - 4.9

5.0 - 5.90 5000 km6.0 - 6.9

120°W 60°W 0° 60°E 120°E

60°N

Hours ofsunlightper day 30°N

0°

30°S

Figure 10.6 Hoursofsunlightperday,duringtheworstmonthoftheyearonanoptimallytiltedsurfaceSource: SunwizeTechnologies2008

Table 10.1 Keystatisticsforthesolarenergymarket

unit australia OECD World 2007–08 2008 2007

Primary energy consumptiona PJ 6.9 189.4 401.8

Shareoftotal % 0.12 0.09 0.08

Averageannualgrowth,from2000 % 7.2 4.3 9.6

Electricity generation

Electricityoutput TWh 0.1 8.2 4.8

Shareoftotal % 0.04 0.08 0.02

Averageannualgrowth,from2000 % 26.1 36.3 30.8

Electricitycapacity GW 0.1 8.3 14.7

a Energyproductionandprimaryenergyconsumptionareidentical Source:IEA2009b;ABARE2009a;Watt2009;EPIA2009


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Themajorityofsolarenergyisproducedusing solarthermaltechnology;solarthermalcomprised 96percentoftotalsolarenergyproductionin 2007(figure10.7).Aroundhalfisusedforwaterheatingintheresidentialsector.Mostof

theremainderisusedforspaceheatingeitherresidentiallyorcommercially,andforheatingswimmingpools.Alloftheenergyusedfor thesepurposesiscollectedusingsolarthermaltechnology.

400

350

300

250

PJ

200

150

100

50

01985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006

Year

PJ

Solar thermal

AERA 10.7

450

Figure 10.7 Worldprimarysolarenergyconsumption, bytechnology

Source: IEA2009b

1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006

YearAERA 10.9

TWh

2.0

1.0

0

5.0

4.0

3.0

PV

Solar thermal

Figure 10.9 Worldelectricitygenerationfromsolarenergy,bytechnology

Source: IEA2009b

Australia

Japan

Brazil

China

Israel

Turkey

Germany

Greece

India

China

Israel

Japan

Turkey

Germany

Greece

Australia

India

Brazil

0

PJ50 100 150 200

%0

United States

United States

AERA 10.8

1 2 3 4

a) Solar thermal use

b) Share in primary energy consumption

Figure 10.8 Directuseofsolarthermalenergy, bycountry,2007

Source: IEA2009b

0 1 2 3 4

TWh

0%

a) Solar electricity generation

Germany

United States

Spain

ChinaRepublic of

KoreaItaly

Netherlands

Switzerland

Canada

Portugal

Australia

b) Share in total electricity generation

Germany

United States

Spain

ChinaRepublic of

KoreaItaly

Netherlands

Switzerland

Canada

Portugal

Australia AERA 10.10

0.2 0.4 0.6

Figure 10.10 Electricitygenerationfromsolarenergy,majorcountries,2007

Source: IEA2009b


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Solar thermal energy consumptionThelargestusersofsolarthermalenergyin2007wereChina(180PJ),theUnitedStates(62PJ),Israel(31PJ)andJapan(23PJ).However,Israelhasasignificantlylargershareofsolarthermalinitstotalprimaryenergyconsumptionthananyothercountry(figure10.8).Growthinsolarthermalenergyuseinthesecountrieshasbeenlargelydrivenbygovernmentpolicies.

Electricity generationElectricitygenerationaccountsforaround5percentofprimaryconsumptionofsolarenergy.Allsolarphotovoltaicenergyiselectricity,whilearound

3percentofsolarthermalenergyisconvertedtoelectricity.Until2003,moresolarthermalenergywasusedtogenerateelectricitythansolarphotovoltaicenergy(figure10.9).

Thelargestproducersofelectricityfromsolar energyin2007wereGermany(3.1TWh),theUnitedStates(0.7TWh)andSpain(0.5TWh),withallothercountrieseachproducing0.1TWhorless(figure10.10).Germanyhadthelargestshareofsolarenergyinelectricitygeneration,at0.5percent.Itisimportanttonotethattheseelectricitygenerationdatadonotincludeoff-gridPVinstallations,whichrepresentalargepartofPVuseinsomecountries.

Table 10.2 IEAreferencecaseprojectionsforworldsolarelectricitygeneration

unit 2007 2030

OECD TWh 4.60 220

Shareoftotal % 0.05 1.66

Averageannualgrowth,2007–2030 % - 18

Non-OECD TWh 0.18 182



World TWh 4.79 402



Source: IEA2009a

8000

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5000

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cap

acity

(MW

)

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2000

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7

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% s

hare

of s

olar

PV

mar

ket

2

1

001992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

AERA 10.11

2007Year

Other

Spain Japan

United States Germany

Australia’s share ofsolar PV market (%)

Figure 10.11 WorldPVCapacity,1992–2007,includingoff-gridinstallationsSource: IEA-PVPS2008


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Installed PV generation capacityTheIEA’sestimatesoftotalPVelectricitygenerationcapacity(includingoff-gridgeneration)showthatJapan(1.9GW)andtheUnitedStates(0.8GW)hadthesecondandthirdlargestPVcapacityin2007,followingGermanywith3.9GW(figure10.11).Over90percentofthiscapacitywasconnectedtogrids(WEC2009).

World market outlookGovernmentincentives,fallingproductioncostsandrisingelectricitygenerationpricesareprojectedtoresultinincreasesinsolarelectricitygeneration.Electricitygenerationfromsolarenergyisprojected toincreaseto402TWhby2030,growingatanaveragerateof21percentperyeartoaccountfor1.2percentoftotalgeneration(table10.2).Solarelectricityisprojectedtoincreasemoresignificantlyinnon-OECDcountriesthaninOECDcountries,albeitfromamuchsmallerbase.

PVsystemsinstalledinbuildingsareprojectedtobethemainsourceofgrowthinsolarelectricitygenerationto2030.PVelectricityisprojectedto

increasetoalmost280TWhin2030,while electricitygeneratedfromconcentratingsolar powersystemsisprojectedtoincreasetoalmost124TWhby2030(IEA2009a).

10.3Australia’ssolarenergyresources and market

10.3.1SolarresourcesAsalreadynoted,theAustraliancontinenthasthehighestsolarradiationpersquaremetreofanycontinent(IEA2003);however,theregionswiththehighestradiationaredesertsinthenorthwestandcentreofthecontinent(figure10.12).

Australiareceivesanaverageof58millionPJofsolarradiationperyear(BoM2009),approximately10000timeslargerthanitstotalenergyconsumptionof5772PJin2007–08(ABARE2009a).Theoretically,then,ifonly0.1percentoftheincomingradiationcouldbeconvertedintousableenergyatanefficiencyof10percent,allofAustralia’senergyneedscouldbesuppliedbysolarenergy.Similarly,theenergyfallingonasolar

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Annual Average Solar Radiation

0 750 km


3 Transmission lines

4 - 6

7 - 9

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13 - 15

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19 - 21

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25 - 27

28 - 30

31 - 33

Figure 10.12 AnnualaveragesolarradiationSource: BureauofMeteorology2009


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farmcovering50kmby50kmwouldbesufficienttomeetallofAustralia’selectricityneeds(Stein2009a).Giventhisvastandlargelyuntappedresource,thechallengeistofindeffectiveandacceptablewaysofexploitingit.

WhiletheareasofhighestsolarradiationinAustraliaaretypicallylocatedinland,therearesomegrid-connectedareasthathaverelativelyhighsolarradiation.WyldGroupandMMA(2008)identifiedanumberoflocationsthataresuitableforsolarthermalpowerplants,basedonhighsolarradiationlevels,proximitytolocalloads,andhighelectricitycostsfromalternativesources.WithintheNationalElectricityMarket(NEM)gridcatchmentarea,theyidentifiedthePortAugustaregioninSouthAustralia,north-westVictoria,andcentralandnorth-westNewSouthWalesasregionsofhighpotentialforsolarthermalpower.TheyalsonominatedKalbarri,nearGeraldton,WesternAustralia,ontheSouth-WestInterconnectedSystem,theDarwin-KatherineInterconnectedSystem,andAliceSprings-TennantCreekaslocationsofhighpotentialforsolar thermalpower.

Concentrating solar powerFigure10.12showstheradiationfallingonaflatplane.ThisistheappropriatemeasureofradiationforflatplatePVandsolarthermalheatingsystems,butnotforconcentratingsystems.Forconcentratingsolarpower,includingbothsolarthermalpowerandconcentratingPV,theDirectNormalIrradiance(DNI)isamorerelevantmeasureofthesolarresource.Thisisbecauseconcentratingsolartechnologiescanonlyfocussunlightcomingfromonedirection,andusetrackingmechanismstoaligntheircollectorswiththedirectionofthesun.TheonlydatasetcurrentlyavailableforDNIthatcoversallofAustraliaisfromtheSurfaceMeteorologyandSolarEnergydatasetfromtheNationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration(NASA).ThisdatasetprovidesDNIatacoarseresolutionof1degree,equatingtoagridlengthofapproximately100km.TheannualaverageDNIfromthisdatasetisshowninfigure10.13.

Sincethegridcellsizeisaround10000km2,thisdatasetprovidesonlyafirstorderindicationoftheDNIacrossbroadregionsofAustralia.However,itisadequatetodemonstratethatthespatialdistribution

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AERA 10.13

Direct Normal Irradiance0 750 km


3

4 - 6

7 - 9

10 - 12

13 - 15

16 - 18

19 - 21

22 - 24

25 - 27

28 - 30

31 - 33

Figure 10.13 DirectNormalSolarIrradianceSource: NASA2009


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ofDNIdiffersfromthatofthetotalradiationshowninfigure10.12.Inparticular,thereareareasofhighDNIincentralNewSouthWalesandcoastalregionsofWesternAustraliathatarelessevidentinthetotalradiation.MoredetailedmappingofDNIacrossAustraliaisneededtoassessthepotential forconcentratingsolarpoweratalocalscale.

Sometypesofsolarthermalpowerplants,includingparabolictroughsandFresnelreflectors,needto beconstructedonflatland.Itisestimatedthat about2hectaresoflandarerequiredperMWofpowerproduced(Stein2009a).Figure10.14showssolarradiation,wherelandwithaslopeofgreaterthan1percent,andlandfurtherthan25kmfromexistingtransmissionlineshasbeenexcluded. LandwithinNationalParkshasalsobeenexcluded.Theseexclusionthresholdsofslopeanddistancetogridarenotpreciselimitsbutintendedtobeindicativeonly.Evenwiththeselimits,theannualradiationfallingonthecolouredareasinfigure10.14is2.7millionPJ,whichamountstonearly500timestheannualenergydemandofAustralia.Moreover,

powertowers,dishesandPVsystemsarenotrestrictedtoflatland,whichrenderseventhisfigureaconservativeestimate.

Seasonal variations in resource availabilityTherearealsosignificantseasonalvariationsintheamountofsolarradiationreachingAustralia.WhilesummerradiationlevelsaregenerallyveryhighacrossallofinlandAustralia,winterradiationhasamuchstrongerdependenceonlatitude.Figures10.15and10.16showacomparisonoftheDecemberandJuneaveragedailysolarradiation.Thesamecolourschemehasbeenusedthroughoutfigures10.12to10.16toallowvisualcomparisonoftheamountofradiationineachfigure.

Insomestates,suchasVictoria,SouthAustralia andQueensland,theseasonalvariationinsolarradiationcorrelateswithaseasonalvariationinelectricitydemand.Thesesummerpeakdemandperiods–causedbyair-conditioningloads–coincidewiththehoursthatthesolarresourceisatitsmostabundant.However,thetotaldemandacrosstheNationalElectricityMarket(comprisingallofthe

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AERA 10.14

Annual Average Solar Radiation(Slope < 1%)

0 750 km


3

Transmission lines

4 - 6

7 - 9

10 - 12

13 - 15

16 - 18

19 - 21

22 - 24

25 - 27

28 - 30

31 - 33

Figure 10.14 Annualsolarradiation,excludinglandwithaslopeofgreaterthan1percentandareasfurther than25kmfromexistingtransmissionlines

Source: BureauofMeteorology2009;GeoscienceAustralia


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easternstates,SouthAustraliaandTasmania)isrelativelyconstantthroughouttheyear,andoccasionallypeaksinwinterduetoheatingloads(AER2009).

10.3.2SolarenergymarketAustralia’smodestproductionanduseofsolarenergyisfocussedonoff-gridandresidentialinstallations.Whilesolarthermalwaterheatinghasbeenthepredominantformofsolarenergyusetodate,productionofelectricityfromPVandconcentrating

solarthermaltechnologiesisincreasing.

Primary energy consumptionAustralia’sprimaryenergyconsumptionofsolarenergyaccountedfor2.4percentofallrenewableenergyuseandaround0.1percentofprimaryenergyconsumptionin2007–08(ABARE2009a).Productionandconsumptionofsolarenergyarethesame,becausesolarenergycanonlybestoredforseveralhoursatpresent.

Overtheperiodfrom1999–2000to2007–08,Australia’ssolarenergyuseincreasedatanaveragerateof7.2percentperyear.However,asillustrated

infigure10.17,thegrowthratewasnotconstant;therewasconsiderablevariationfromyeartoyear.Thebulkofgrowthoverthisperiodwasintheformofsolarthermalsystemsusedfordomesticwaterheating.PVisalsousedtoproduceasmallamountofelectricity.Intotal,Australia’ssolarenergyconsumptionin2007–08was6.9PJ(1.9TWh),ofwhich6.5PJ(1.8TWh)wereusedforwaterheating(ABARE2009a).

Consumption of solar thermal energy, by stateStatisticsonPVenergyconsumptionbystatearenotavailable.However,PVrepresentsonly5.8percentoftotalsolarenergyconsumption;onthatbasis,statisticsonsolarthermalconsumptionbystateprovideareasonableapproximationofthedistributionoftotalsolarenergyconsumption.

WesternAustraliahasthehighestsolarenergyconsumptioninAustralia,contributing40percentofAustralia’stotalsolarthermalusein2007–08(figure10.18).NewSouthWalesandQueenslandcontributedanother26percentand15percentrespectively.Therateofgrowthofsolarenergyuse

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December Average SolarRadiation

0 750 km


3

4 - 6

7 - 9

10 - 12

13 - 15

16 - 18

19 - 21

22 - 24

25 - 27

28 - 30

31 - 33

Figure 10.15 DecemberaveragesolarradiationSource: BureauofMeteorology2009


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AERA 10.16

June Average Solar Radiation

0 750 km


3

4 - 6

7 - 9

10 - 12

13 - 15

16 - 18

19 - 21

22 - 24

25 - 27

28 - 30

31 - 33

Figure 10.16 JuneaveragesolarradiationSource: BureauofMeteorology2009

7

6

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PJ

3

2

1

0

PV

Solar thermal

1974-75 1977-78 1980-81 1983-84 1986-87 1989-90 1992-93 1995-96 1998-99 2001-02 2004-05 2007-08

YearAERA 10.17

Figure 10.17 Australia’sprimaryconsumptionofsolarenergy,bytechnologySource: IEA2009b;ABARE2009a


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overthepastdecadehasbeensimilarinallstatesandterritories,rangingfromanaverageannualgrowthof7percentintheNorthernTerritoryandVictoria,toanaverageannualgrowthof11percentinNewSouthWales.

ArangeofgovernmentpolicysettingsfrombothAustralianandStategovernmentshaveresultedinasignificantincreaseintheuptakeofsmall-scalesolarhotwatersystemsinAustralia.Thecombinationofdrivers,includingthesolarhotwaterrebate,statebuildingcodes,theinclusionofsolarhotwaterundertheRenewableEnergyTargetandthemandatedphase-outofelectrichotwaterby2012,haveallcontributedtotheincreaseduptakeofsolarhotwatersystemsfrom7percentoftotalhotwatersysteminstallationsin2007to13percentin2008(BISShrapnel2008;ABARE2009a).

Electricity generationElectricitygenerationfromsolarenergyinAustraliaiscurrentlyalmostentirelysourcedfromPVinstallations,primarilyfromsmalloff-gridsystems.Electricitygenerationfromsolarthermalsystemsiscurrentlylimitedtosmallpilotprojects,althoughinterestinsolarthermalsystemsforlargescaleelectricitygenerationisincreasing.

Somecareinanalysisofgenerationdatainenergystatisticsiswarranted.Forenergyaccountingpurposes,thefuelinputstoasolarenergysystemareassumedtoequaltheenergygeneratedbythesolarsystem.Thus,thesolarelectricityfuelinputs inenergystatisticsrepresentthesolarenergycapturedbysolarenergysystems,ratherthanthesignificantlylargermeasureoftotalsolarradiationfallingonsolarenergysystems;howeverthisradiationisnotmeasuredinenergystatistics.Fossilfuelssuchasgasandcoalaremeasuredinterms

ofboththeirthermalfuelinput,andtheirelectricaloutput.Theresultofthisdifferencebetweenfuelinputsandenergyoutputforfossilfuelsisthatsolarrepresentsalargershareofelectricitygenerationoutputthanoffuelinputstoelectricitygeneration.

In2007–08,0.11TWh(0.4PJ)ofelectricityweregeneratedfromsolarenergy,representing0.04percentofAustralianelectricitygeneration(figure10.19).Despiteitssmallshare,solarelectricitygenerationhasincreasedrapidlyinrecentyears.

Installed electricity generation capacityAustralia’stotalPVcapacityhasincreasedsignificantlyoverthelastdecade(figure10.20),andinparticularoverthelasttwoyears.ThishasbeendrivenprimarilybytheSolarHomesandCommunitiesPlanforon-gridapplicationsandtheRemoteRenewablePowerGenerationProgramforoff-gridapplications.Overthelasttwoyears,therehasbeenadramaticincreaseinthetake-upofsmallscalePV,withmorethan40MWinstalledin2009(figures10.20,10.23).Thisisduetoacombinationoffactors:supportprovidedthroughtheSolarHomesandCommunitiesprogram,greaterpublicawarenessofsolarPV,adropinthepriceofPVsystems,attributablebothtogreaterinternationalcompetitionamonganincreasednumberofsuppliersandadecreaseinworldwidedemandasaresultoftheglobalfinancialcrisis,astrongAustraliandollar,andhighlyeffectivemarketingbyPVretailers.

MostAustralianstatesandterritorieshaveinplace,orareplanningtoimplement,feed-intariffs.Whilethereissomecorrelationoftheirintroductionwithincreasedconsumeruptake,itistooearlytosuggestthatthesetariffshavebeensignificantcontributorstoit.Thecombinationofgovernmentpolicies,associatedpublicandprivateinvestmentinRD&Dmeasuresandbroadermarketconditionsarelikelytobethemaininfluences.

WesternVictoriaAustralia

6%40%

Queensland15%

Tasmania2%

NorthernSouth Territory

Australia 3%8%

New SouthWales26%

AERA 10.18

Figure 10.18 Solarthermalenergyconsumption, bystate,2007–08

Source: ABARE2009a

0.0

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Figure 10.19 Australianelectricitygenerationfrom solar energy

Source: ABARE

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01992 1993 1994 1995 1996 2006200520042003200220012000

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Grid distributed

Diesel grids

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Off grid domestic

Figure 10.20 PVinstalledcapacityfrom1992–2008Note: TheseestimatesrepresentthepeakpoweroutputofPVsystems.Theydonotrepresenttheaveragepoweroutputoverayear,assolarradiationvariesaccordingtofactorssuchasthetimeofday,thenumberofdaylighthours,theangleofthesunandthecloudcover.ThesecapacityestimatesareconsistentwiththePVproductiondatapresentedinthisreport

Source: Watt2009

Thelargestcomponentofinstalledsolarelectricitycapacityisusedforoff-gridindustrialandagriculturalpurposes(41MW),withsignificantcontributionscomingfromoff-gridresidentialsystems(31MW),andgridconnecteddistributedsystems(30MW).Thislargeoff-gridusagereflectsthecapacityofPVsystemstobeusedasstand-alonegeneratingsystems,particularlyforsmallscaleapplications.Therehavealsobeenseveralcommercialsolarprojectsthatprovideelectricitytothegrid.

Recently completed solar projectsFivecommercial-scalesolarprojectswithacombinedcapacityofaround5MWhavebeencommissionedinAustraliasince1998(table10.3).AlloftheseprojectsarelocatedinNewSouthWales.Commissionedsolarprojectstodatehavehadsmallcapacitieswithfourofthefiveprojectscommissionedhavingacapacityoflessthanorequalto1MW.Theonlyprojecttohaveacapacityofmorethan1MW

isAusra’s2008solarthermalattachmenttoLiddellpowerplant,whichhasapeakelectricpowercapacityof2MW(Ausra2009).Whilesomewhatlargerthanthemorecommondomesticorcommercialinstallations,thesearemodestly-sizedplants.However,thereareplansforconstructionofseverallargescalesolarpowerplantsundertheAustralianGovernment’sSolarFlagshipsProgram,whichwill usebothsolarthermalandPVtechnologies.

10.4Outlookto2030forAustralia’sresourcesandmarketSolarenergyisarenewableresource:increaseduseoftheresourcedoesnotaffectresourceavailability.However,thequantityoftheresourcethatcanbeeconomicallycapturedchangesovertimethroughtechnologicaldevelopments.

TheoutlookfortheAustraliansolarmarket dependsonthecostofsolarenergyrelativetootherenergyresources.Atpresent,solarenergyismoreexpensiveforelectricitygenerationthanothercurrentlyusedrenewableenergysources,suchashydro,wind,biomassandbiogas.Therefore,theoutlookforincreasedsolarenergyuptakedependsonfactorsthatwillreduceitscostsrelativetootherrenewablefuels.Thecompetitivenessofsolarenergyandrenewableenergysourcesgenerallywillalsodependongovernmentpoliciesaimedatreducinggreenhousegasemissions.

Solarenergyislikelytobeaneconomicallyattractiveoptionforremoteoff-gridelectricitygeneration.Thelong-termcompetitivenessofsolarenergyinlarge-

Table 10.3 Recentlycompletedsolarprojects

Project Company State Start up Capacity

Singleton Energy NSW 1998 0.4MWAustralia

Newington Private NSW 2000 0.7MW

BrokenHill Australian NSW 2000 1MWInlandEnergy

Newcastle CSIRO NSW 2005 0.6MW

Liddell Ausra NSW Late 2MW2008

Source: GeoscienceAustralia2009


275


scalegrid-connectedapplicationsdependsinlargemeasureontechnologicaldevelopmentsthatenhancetheefficiencyofenergyconversionandreducethecapitalandoperatingcostofsolarenergysystems andcomponentry.TheAustralianGovernment’s$1.5billionSolarFlagshipsprogram,announcedaspartoftheCleanEnergyInitiative,willsupporttheconstructionanddemonstrationoflargescale (upto1000MW)solarpowerstationsinAustralia. Itwillacceleratedevelopmentsolartechnologyand helppositionAustraliaasaworldleaderinthatfield.

10.4.1KeyfactorsinfluencingthefuturedevelopmentofAustralia’ssolarenergyresourcesAustraliaisaworldleaderindevelopingsolartechnologies(LovegroveandDennis2006),butuptakeofthesetechnologieswithinAustraliahasbeenrelativelylow,principallybecauseoftheir highcost.Anumberoffactorsaffecttheeconomicviabilityofsolarinstallations.

Solar energy technologies and costsResearchintobothsolarPVandsolarthermaltechnologiesislargelyfocussedonreducingcostsandincreasingtheefficiencyofthesystems.

• Electricity generation–commercial-scalegenerationprojectshavebeendemonstratedtobepossiblebutthecostofthetechnologyisstillrelativelyhigh,makingsolarlessattractiveandhigherriskforinvestors.Small-scalesolarPVarraysarecurrentlybestsuitedtoremoteandoff-gridapplications,withotherapplicationslargelydependentonresearchorgovernmentfundingtomakethemviable.Informationonsolarenergytechnologiesforelectricitygenerationispresentedinbox10.1.

• Direct-use applications–solarthermalhotwatersystemsfordomesticuserepresentthemostwidelycommercialisedsolarenergytechnology.

Solarwaterheatersarecontinuingtobedevelopedfurther,andcanalsobeintegrated withPVarrays.Otherdirectusesincludepassivesolarheating,andsolarairconditioning.Informationonsolarenergytechnologiesfordirect-useapplicationsispresentedinbox10.2.

WithbothsolarPVandsolarthermalgeneration,themajorityofcostsareborneinthecapitalinstallationphase,irrespectiveofthescaleorsizeoftheproject(figure10.21).ThelargestcostcomponentsofPVinstallationsarethecellsorpanelsandtheassociatedcomponentsrequiredtoinstallandconnectthepanelsasapowersource.Inaddition,theinverterthatconvertsthedirectcurrenttoalternatingcurrentneedstobereplacedatleastonceevery10years(Borenstein2008).However,therearenofuelcosts–oncethesystemisinstalled,apartfromreplacingtheinverter,thereshouldbenocostsassociatedwithrunningthesystemuntiltheendofitsusefullife(20to25years).Themajorchallenge,therefore,isinitialoutlay,withsomewhatmoremodestperiodiccomponentreplacement, andpaybackperiodfortheinvestment.

Currently,thecostofsolarenergyishigherthan othertechnologiesinmostcountries.TheminimumcostforsolarPVinareaswithhighsolarradiation isaroundUS23centsperkWh(EIA2009).

SolarthermalsystemshaveasimilarprofiletoPV,dependingonthescaleandtypeofinstallation.Thecostofelectricityproductionfromsolarenergyisexpectedtodeclineasnewtechnologiesaredevelopedandeconomiesofscaleimproveintheproductionprocesses.

Thecostofinstallingsolarcapacityhasgenerallybeendecreasing.BothPVandsolarthermaltechnologiescurrentlyhavesubstantialresearch anddevelopmentfundsdirectedtowardthem,andnewproductionprocessesareexpectedtoresultinacontinuationofthistrend(figure10.22).IntheUnited

Cos

ts

Years = 25installation inverter replacement

AERA 10.21

Figure 10.21 IndicativesolarPVproductionprofile and costs

Source: ABARE

PV

Solar thermal1

0

6

5

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per

wat

t

4

3

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2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027

AERA 10.22

2029

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Figure 10.22 Projectedaveragecapitalcostsfor newelectricitygenerationplantsusingsolarenergy, 2011to2030

Source: EIA2009


276

States,thecapitalcostofnewPVplantsisprojectedtofallby37percent(inrealterms)from2009to2030(EIA2009).

TheElectricPowerResearchInstitute(EPRI)hasdevelopedestimatesofthelevelisedcostoftechnologya,includingarangeofsolartechnologies,toenablethecomparisonoftechnologiesatdifferentlevelsofmaturity(Chapter2,figures2.18,2.19).Thesolartechnologiesconsideredareparabolictroughs,centralreceiversystems,fixedPVsystemsandtrackingPVsystems.Centralreceiversolarsystemswithstorageareforecasttohavethelowestcostsoftechnologyin2015.AddingstoragetothecentralreceiversystemsortoparabolictroughsisestimatedtodecreasethecostperKWhproduced,asitallowsthesystemtoproduceahigherelectricityoutput.TrackingPVsystemsareforecasttohavethelowestcostoftheoptionsthatdonotincorporatestorage.TheEPRItechnologystatusdatainfigures2.18and2.19showthat,althoughsolartechnologiesremainrelativelyhighcostoptionsthroughouttheoutlookperiod,significantreductionsincostareanticipatedby2030.ThesubstantialglobalRD&D(bygovernmentsandtheprivatesector)intosolartechnologies,includingtheAustralianGovernment’s$1.5billionSolarFlagshipsProgramtosupporttheconstructionanddemonstrationoflargescalesolarpowerstationsinAustralia,isexpectedtoplayakeyroleinacceleratingthedevelopmentanddeploymentofsolarenergy.

Thetimetakentoinstallordevelopasolarsystem ishighlydependentonthesizeandscaleoftheproject.Solarhotwatersystemscanbeinstalledinaroundfourhours.Small-scalePVsystemscansimilarlybeinstalledquiterapidly.However,commercialscaledevelopmentstakeconsiderablylonger,dependingonthetypeofinstallationandotherfactors,includingbroaderlocationorenvironmentalconsiderations.

Location of the resourceInAustralia,thebestsolarresourcesarecommonlydistantfromthenationalelectricitymarket(NEM),especiallythemajorurbancentresontheeasternseaboard.Thisposesachallengefordevelopingnewsolarpowerplants,asthereneedstobeabalancebetweenmaximisingthesolarradiationandminimisingthecostsofconnectivitytotheelectricitygrid.However,thereispotentialforsolarthermalenergyapplicationtoprovidebaseandintermediateloadelectricitywithfossil-fuelplants(suchasgasturbinepowerstations)inareaswithisolatedgridsystemsandgoodinsolationresources.ThereportbytheWyldGroupandMMA(2008)identifiedMountIsa,AliceSprings,TennantCreekandthePilbararegionasareaswiththesecharacteristics.AccesstoAustralia’smajorsolarenergyresources–aswithotherremoterenewableenergysources–islikelytorequireinvestmenttoextendtheelectricitygrid.

Stand-alonePVsystemscanbelocatedclosetocustomers(forexampleonroofareasofresidentialbuildings),whichreducesthecostsofelectricitytransmissionanddistribution.However,concentratingsolarthermaltechnologiesrequiremorespecificconditionsandlargeareasofland(Lorenz,PinnerandSeitz2008)whichareoftenonlyavailablelongdistancesfromthecustomersneedingtheenergy. InAustralia,installingsmall-scaleresidentialormediumscalecommercialsystems(bothPVandthermal)canbehighlyattractiveoptionsforremoteareaswhereelectricityinfrastructureisdifficultorcostlytoaccess,andalternativelocalsourcesofelectricityareexpensive.

government policiesGovernmentpolicieshavebeenimplementedatseveralstagesofthesolarenergyproductionchaininAustralia.RebatesprovidedforsolarwaterheatingsystemsandresidentialPVinstallationsreducethecostofthesetechnologiesforconsumersandencouragetheiruptake.

TheSolarHomesandCommunitiesPlan(2000toJune2009)providedrebatesfortheinstallationofsolarPVsystems.ThecapacityofPVsystemsinstalledbyAustralianhouseholdsincreasedsignificantlyunderthisprogram(figure10.23). TheexpandedRETschemeincludestheSolar Creditsinitiative,whichprovidesamultipliedcreditforelectricitygeneratedbysmallsolarPVsystems. Solar Creditsprovidesanup-frontcapitalsubsidytowardstheinstallationofsmallsolarPVsystems.

TheAustralianGovernmenthasalsoannounced $1.5billionofnewfundingforitsSolarFlagshipsprogram.Thisprogramaimstoinstalluptofournewsolarpowerplants,withacombinedpoweroutputofupto1000MW,madeupofbothPVandsolarthermalpowerplants,withthelocationsandtechnologiestobedeterminedbyacompetitivetenderprocess.Theprogramaimstodemonstratenewsolartechnologiesatacommercialscale,therebyacceleratinguptakeofsolarenergyingeneralandprovidingtheopportunityforAustraliatodevelopleadershipinsolarenergytechnology(RET2009b).

TheAustralianGovernmenthasalsoallocatedfundingtoestablishtheAustralianSolarInstitute(ASI),whichwillbebasedinNewcastle.ItwillhavestrongcollaborativelinkswithCSIROandUniversitiesundertakingR&Dinsolartechnologies.TheinstitutewillaimtodrivedevelopmentofsolarthermalandPVtechnologiesinAustralia,includingtheareasofefficiencyandcosteffectiveness(RET2009a).

Othergovernmentpolicies,includingfeed-intariffs,whichareproposedoralreadyinplaceinmostAustralianstatesandterritories,mayalsoencouragetheuptakeofsolarenergy.

a ThisEPRItechnologystatusdataenablesthecomparisonoftechnologiesatdifferentlevelsofmaturity. Itshouldnotbeusedtoforecastmarketandinvestmentoutcomes.


277


50

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20

10

02000

Year2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

AERA 10.23

Figure 10.23 ResidentialPVcapacityinstalledundertheSolarHomesandCommunitiesPlan(asofOctober2009)

Source: DEWHA2009

Infrastructure issuesThelocationoflargescalesolarpowerplants inAustraliawillbeinfluencedbythecostofconnectiontotheelectricitygrid.Intheshortterm,developmentsarelikelytofocusonisolatedgridsystemsornodestotheexistingelectricitygrid, sincethisminimisesinfrastructurecosts.

Inthelongerterm,theextensionofthegridtoaccessremotesolarenergyresourcesindesertregionsmayrequirebuildinglongdistancetransmissionlines.Thetechnologyneededtoachievethisexists:highvoltagedirectcurrent(HVDC)transmissionlinesareabletotransferelectricityoverthousandsofkilometres,withminimallosses.SomeHVDClinesarealreadyinuseinAustralia,andarebeingusedtoforminterstategridconnections;thelongestexamplebeingtheHVDClinkbetweenTasmaniaandVictoria.However,buildingaHVDClinktoasolarpowerstationindesertareaswouldrequirealargeup-frontinvestment.

Theideaofgeneratinglargescalesolarenergyinremotedesertregionshasbeenproposedonamuchlargerscaleinternationally.InJune2009theDESERTECFoundationoutlinedaproposaltobuildlargescalesolarfarmsinthesun-richregionsoftheMiddleEastandNorthernAfrica,andexporttheirpowertoEuropeusinglongdistanceHVDClines. Morerecently,anAsiaPacificSunbeltDevelopmentProjecthasbeenestablishedwiththeaimofmovingsolarenergybywayoffuelratherthanelectricityfromregionssuchasAustraliatothoseAsiancountrieswhoimportenergy,suchasJapanandKorea.Theseprojectsillustratethegrowinginternationalinterestinutilisinglargescalesolarpowerfromremoteandinhospitableareas,despitetheinfrastructurechallengesintransmittingortransportingenergyoverlongdistances.

Environmental issuesAroof-mounted,grid-connectedsolarsysteminAustraliaisestimatedtoyieldmorethanseventimes

theenergyrequiredtoproduceitovera20yearsystemlifespan(MacKay2009).Inareaswithlesssolarradiation,suchasCentral-NorthernEurope,theenergyyieldratioisestimatedtobearoundfour.Thispositiveenergyyieldratioalsomeansthatgreenhousegasemissionsgeneratedfromtheproductionofsolarenergysystemsaremorethanoffsetoverthesystems’lifecycle,astherearenogreenhousegasemissionsgeneratedfromtheiroperation.

Mostsolarthermalelectricitygenerationsystemsrequirewaterforsteamproductionandthiswateruseaffectstheefficiencyofthesystem.Themajorityofthiswaterisconsumedin‘wetcooling’towers,whichuseevaporativecoolingtocondensethesteamafterithaspassedthroughtheturbine.Inaddition,solarthermalsystemsrequirewatertowashthemirrors,tomaintaintheirreflectivity(Jones2008).Itispossibletouse‘drycooling’towers,whicheliminatemostofthewaterconsumption,butthisreducestheefficiencyofthesteamcyclebyapproximately10percent(Stein2009b).

AfurtheroptionunderdevelopmentistheuseofhightemperatureBraytoncycles,whichdonotusesteamturbinesandthusdonotconsumewater.BraytoncyclesaremoreefficientthanconventionalRankine(steam)cycles,buttheycanonlybeachievedbypoint-focussingsolarthermaltechnologies(powertowersanddishes).

10.4.2OutlookforsolarenergymarketAlthoughsolarenergyismoreabundantinAustraliathanotherrenewableenergysources,plansforexpandingsolarenergyinAustraliagenerallyrelyonsubsidiestobeeconomicallyviable.Therearecurrentlyonlyasmallnumberofproposedcommercialsolarenergyprojects,mostlyofsmallscale.Solarenergyiscurrentlymoreexpensivetoproducethanotherformsofrenewableenergy,suchashydro,windandbiomass(WyldGroupandMMA2008).Intheshortterm,therefore,solarenergywillfinditdifficulttocompetecommerciallywithotherformsofcleanenergyforelectricitygenerationintheNEM.However,asglobaldeploymentofsolarenergytechnologiesincreases,thecostofthetechnologiesislikelytodecrease.Moreover,technologicaldevelopmentsandgreenhousegasemissionreductionpoliciesareexpectedtodriveincreaseduseofsolarenergyinthemediumandlongterm.

Key projections to 2029–30ABARE’slatest(2010)AustralianenergyprojectionsincludetheRET,a5percentemissionsreductiontarget,andothergovernmentpolicies.SolarenergyuseinAustraliaisprojectedtomorethantriple,from7PJin2007–08to24PJin2029–30,growingatanaveragerateof5.9percentayear(figure10.27,table10.4).Whilesolarwaterheatingisprojectedtoremainthepredominantuseforsolarenergy,theshareofPVintotalsolarenergyuseisprojectedtoincrease.


278

BOx 10.1SOLARENERGyTECHNOLOGIESFORELECTRICITyGENERATION

Sunlighthasbeenusedforheatingbygeneratingfireforhundredsofyears,butcommercialtechnologiesspecificallytousesolarenergytodirectlyheatwaterorgeneratepowerwerenotdevelopeduntilthe1800s.Solarwaterheatersdevelopedandinstalledbetween1910and1920werethefirstcommercialapplicationofsolarenergy.ThefirstPVcellscapableofconvertingenoughenergyintopowertorunelectricalequipmentwerenotdevelopeduntilthe1950sandthefirstsolarpowerstations(thermalandPV)withcapacityofatleast1megawattstartedoperatinginthe1980s.

Solar thermal electricitySolarthermalelectricityisproducedbyconvertingsunlightintoheat,andthenusingtheheattodrive agenerator.Thesunlightisconcentratedusingmirrors,andfocussedontoasolarreceiver.Thisreceivercontainsaworkingfluidthatabsorbstheconcentratedsunlight,andcanbeheateduptoveryhightemperatures.Heatistransferredfromtheworkingfluidtoasteamturbine,similartothoseusedinfossilfuelandnuclearpowerstations.Alternatively,theheatcanbestoredforlateruse(seebelow).

Therearefourmaintypesofconcentratingsolarreceivers,showninfigure10.24.Twoofthesetypesareline-focussing(parabolictroughandLinearFresnelreflector);theothertwoarepoint-focussing(paraboloidaldishandpowertower).Eachofthesetypesisdesignedtoconcentratealargeareaofsunlightontoasmallreceiver,whichenablesfluid tobeheatedtohightemperatures.Therearetrade-offsbetweenefficiency,landcoverage,andcosts ofeachtype.

Themostwidelyusedsolarconcentratoristheparabolictrough.Parabolictroughsfocuslightinoneaxisonly,whichmeansthattheyneedonlyasingleaxistrackingmechanismtofollowthedirectionofthesun.ThelinearFresnelreflectorachievesasimilarline-focus,butinsteadusesanarrayofalmostflatmirrors.LinearFresnelreflectorsachieveaweakerfocus(thereforelowertemperaturesandefficiencies)thanparabolictroughs.However,linearFresnelreflectorshavecost-savingfeaturesthatcompensateforlowerenergyefficiencies,includingagreateryieldperunitland,andsimplerconstructionrequirements.

Theparaboloidaldishisanalternatedesignwhichfocusessunlightontoasinglepoint.Thisdesignisabletoproduceamuchhighertemperatureatthe

a b

c d

Figure 10.24 Thefourtypesofsolarthermalconcentrators: (a)parabolictrough,(b)compactlinearFresnelreflector,(c)paraboloidaldish,and(d)powertower

Source: WikimediaCommons,photographbykjkolb;WikimediaCommons,originaluploaderwasLkruijswaten.wikipedia; AustralianNationalUniversity2009a;CSIRO


279


receiver,whichincreasestheefficiencyofenergyconversion.Theparaboloidaldishhasthegreatestpotentialtobeusedinmodularform,whichmaygivethisdesignanadvantageinoff-gridandremoteapplications.However,tofocusthesunlightontoasinglepoint,paraboloidaldishesneedtotrackthedirectionofsunlightontwoaxes.Thisrequiresamorecomplextrackingmechanism,andismoreexpensivetobuild.Theotherpointfocusingdesignisthe‘powertower’,whichusesaseriesofground-basedmirrorstofocusontoanelevatedcentralreceiver.Powertowermirrorsalsorequiretwo-axistrackingmechanisms;howevertheuseofsmaller,flatmirrorscanreducecosts.

Theparabolictroughhasthemostwidespreadcommercialuse.Anarrayofnineparabolictroughplantsproducingacombined354MWhaveoperatedinCaliforniasincethe1980s.SeveralnewoneshavebeenbuiltinSpainandNevadainthelastfewyearsatarounda50–60MWscale,andtherearemanyparabolictroughplantseitherintheconstructionorplanningphase.Whileparabolictroughshavethemajorityofthecurrentmarketshare,allfourdesignsaregainingrenewedcommercialinterest.Thereisan11MWsolarpowertowerplantoperatinginSpain, andasimilar20MWplanthasrecentlybegunoperatingatthesamelocation.ThelinearFresnelreflectorhasbeendemonstratedonasmallscale(5MW),anda177MWplantisplannedforconstructioninCalifornia.Theparaboloidaldishhasalsobeendemonstratedonasmallscale,andthereareplansforlargescaledishplants.

Methodsofpowerconversionandthermalstoragevaryfromtypetotype.Whilesolarthermalplantsaregenerallysuitedtolargescaleplants(greaterthan 50MW),theparaboloidaldishhasthepotentialto beusedinmodularform.Thismaygivedishsystemsanadvantageinremoteandoff-gridapplications.

Efficiency of solar thermalTheconversionefficiencyofsolarthermalpowerplantsdependsonthetypeofconcentratorused, andtheamountofsunlight.Ingeneral,thepoint-focusingconcentrators(paraboloidaldishandpowertower)canachievehigherefficienciesthanlinefocussingtechnologies(parabolictroughandFresnelreflector).Thisispossiblebecausethepoint-focussingtechnologiesachievehighertemperaturesforhigherthermodynamiclimits.

Thehighestvalueofsolar-to-electricefficiencyeverrecordedforasolarthermalsystemwas31.25percent,usingasolardishinpeaksunlightconditions(Sandia2009).Parabolictroughscanachieveapeaksolar-to-electricefficiencyofover20percent(SEGS2009).However,theconversionefficiencydropssignificantlywhentheradiationdropsinintensity,

sotheannualaverageefficienciesaresignificantlylower.AccordingtoBegay-Campbell(2008),theannualsolar-to-electricefficiencyisapproximately12–14percentforparabolictroughs,12percentforpowertowers(althoughemergingtechnologiescanachieve18–20percent),and22–25percentforparaboloidaldishes.LinearFresnelreflectorsachieveasimilarefficiencytoparabolictroughs,withanannualsolar-to-electricefficiencyofapproximately 12percent(Millsetal.2002).

Energy storageSolarthermalelectricitysystemshavethepotentialtostoreenergyoverseveralhours.Theworkingfluidusedinthesystemcanbeusedtotemporarilystoreheat,andcanbeconvertedintoelectricityafterthesunhasstoppedshining.Thismeansthatsolarthermalplantshavethepotentialtodispatchpoweratpeakdemandtimes.Itshouldbenoted,however,thatperiodsofsustainedcloudyweathercuttheproductivecapacityofsolarthermalpower. Theseasonalityofsunshinealsoreducespoweroutputinwinter.

Thermalstorageisoneofthekeyadvantagesofsolarthermalpower,andcreatesthepotentialforintermediateorbase-loadpowergeneration.Althoughthermalstoragetechnologyisrelativelynew,severalrecentlyconstructedsolarthermalpowerplantshaveincludedthermalstorageofapproximately7hours’powergeneration.Inaddition,therearenewpowertowerdesignsthatincorporateupto16hoursofthermalstorage,allowing24hourpowergenerationinappropriateconditions.Thedevelopmentofcosteffectivestoragetechnologiesmayenableamuchhigheruptakeofsolarthermalpowerinthefuture(WyldGroupandMMA2008).

Currentresearchisdevelopingalternativeenergystoragemethods,includingchemicalstorage,andphase-changematerials.Chemicalstorageoptionsincludedissociatedammoniaandsolar-enhancednaturalgas.Thesenewstoragemethodshavethepotentialtoprovideseasonalstorageofsolarenergy,ortoconvertsolarenergyintoportablefuels.Infuture,itmaybepossibleforsolarfuelstobeusedinthetransportsector,orevenforexportingsolarenergy.

Hybrid operation with fossil fuel plantsSolarthermalpowerplantscanmakeuseof existingturbinetechnologiesthathavebeendevelopedandrefinedovermanydecadesinfossilfueltechnologies.Usingthismaturetechnologycanreducemanufacturingcostsandincreasetheefficiencyofpowergeneration.Inaddition,solarthermalheatcollectorscanbeusedinhybridoperationwithfossilfuelburners.Anumberofexistingsolarthermalpowerplantsusegasburnerstoboostpowersupplyduringlowlevelsofsunlight.


280

Combiningsolarthermalpowerwithgascanprovideahedgeagainsttheintermittencyofsunlight.

Solarthermalheatcollectorscanbeattachedtoexistingcoalorgaspowerstationstopre-heatthewaterusedintheseplants.Thisispossiblesincesolarthermalheatcollectorsperformaverysimilarfunctiontofossilfuelburners.Inthisway,solarthermalpowercanmakeuseofexistinginfrastructure.Thisoptionisnotaffectedbyintermittencyofsunlight,sincethefossilfuelburnersprovidefirmcapacityofproduction.Internationally,thereareseveralnewintegratedsolarcombinedcycle(ISCC)plantsplannedforconstruction.ISCCplantsaresimilartocombinedcyclegasplants(usingbothagasturbine,andasteamturbine),butusesolarthermalheatcollectorstoboostthesteamturbineproduction.

Solar updraft towersAnalternativesolarthermalpowertechnologyisthesolarupdrafttower,alsoknownasasolarchimney.Theupdrafttowercapturessolarenergyusingalargegreenhouse,whichheatsairbeneathatransparentroof.Averytallchimneyisplacedatthecentreofthegreenhouse,andtheheatedaircreatespressuredifferencesthatdriveairflowupthechimney.Electricityisgeneratedfromtheairflowusingwindturbinesatthebaseofthechimney.

Solarupdrafttowershavebeentestedatarelativelysmallscale,witha50kWplantinSpainbeingtheonlyworkingprototypeatpresent.Thereareplanstoupscalethistechnology,includingaproposed200MWplantinBuronga,NSW.ThemaindisadvantageofsolarupdrafttowersisthattheydeliversignificantlylesspowerperunitareathanconcentratingsolarthermalandPVsystems(Enviromission2009).

Photovoltaic systemsThecostsofproducingPVcellshasdeclinedrapidlyinrecentyearsasuptakehasincreased(Fthenakis

etal.2009)andanumberofPVtechnologieshave

beendeveloped.Thecostofmodulescanbereduced

infourmainways:

• makingthinnerlayers–reducingmaterialand

processingcosts;

• integratingPVpanelswithbuildingelementssuch

asglassandroofs–reducingoverallsystem

costs;

• makingadhesiveonsite–reducingmaterials

costs;and

• improvingdecisionsaboutmakingorbuying

inputs,increasingeconomiesofscale,and

improvingthedesignofPVmodules.

TherearethreemaintypesofPVtechnology:

crystallinesilicon,thin-filmandconcentratingPV.

Crystallinesiliconistheoldestandmostwidespread

technology.Thesecellsarebecomingmoreefficient

overtime,andcostshavefallensteadily.

Thin-filmPVisanemerginggroupoftechnologies,

targetedatreducingcostsofPVcells.Thin-filmPV

isatanearlierstageofdevelopment,andcurrently

deliversalowerefficiencythancrystallinesilicon,

estimatedataround10percent,althoughmany

ofthenewervarietiesstilldeliverefficienciesof

lessthanthis(Prowse2009).However,thisis

compensatedbylowercosts,andtherearestrong

prospectsforefficiencyimprovementsinthefuture.

Thin-filmPVcanbeinstalledonmanydifferent

substrates,givingitgreatflexibilityinitsapplications.

ConcentratingPVsystemsuseeithermirrorsor

lensestofocusalargeareaofsunlightontoacentral

receiver(figure10.25).Thisincreasestheintensity

ofthelight,andallowsagreaterpercentageofits

energytobeconvertedintoelectricity.Thesesystems

aredesignedprimarilyforlargescalecentralised

Figure 10.25 (a)ExampleofarooftopPVsystem. (b)AschematicconcentratingPVsystem,wherealargenumberofmirrorsfocussunlightontocentralPVreceivers

Source: CERP,WikimediaCommons;EnergyInnovationsInc.underWikipedialicencecc-by-sa-2.5


281


power,duetothecomplexitiesofthereceivers.ConcentratingPVisthemostefficientformofPV,deliveringatypicalsystemefficiencyofaround 20percent,andhasachievedefficienciesofjustover40percentinideallaboratoryconditions(NREL2008).

AnadvantageofusingconcentratingPVisthatitreducestheareaofsolarcellsneededtocapture thesunlight.PVcellsareoftenexpensivetoproduce,andthemirrorsorlensesusedtoconcentratethelightaregenerallycheaperthanthecells.However,theuseofsolarconcentratorsgenerallyrequiresalargersystemthatcannotbescaleddownaseasilyasflat-platePVcells.

ArelativelyrecentareaofgrowthforPVapplicationsisinBuilding-integratedPV(BIPV)systems.BIPVsystemsincorporatePVtechnologyintomanydifferentcomponentsofanewbuilding.Thesecomponentsincluderooftops,wallsandwindows,

wherePVcellscaneitherreplace,orbeintegratedwithexistingmaterials.BIPVhasthepotentialtoreducecostsofPVsystems,andtoincreasethesurfaceareaavailableforcapturingsolarenergywithinabuilding(NREL2009b).

Efficiency of photovoltaic systemsCurrently,themaximumefficiencyofcommerciallyavailablePVmodulesisaround20to25percent,withefficienciesofaround40percentachievedinlaboratories.MostcommerciallyavailablePVsystemshaveanaverageconversionefficiencyofaround10percent.Newdevelopments(suchasmulti-junctiontandemcells)suggestsolarcellswithconversionefficienciesofgreaterthan40percentcouldbecomecommerciallyavailableinthefuture.Fthenakisetal.(2009)positthatincreasesinefficiencyofPVmoduleswillcomefromfurthertechnologyimprovements.

BOx 10.2SOLARENERGyTECHNOLOGIESFORDIRECT-USEAPPLICATIONS

Solar thermal heatingSolarthermalheatingusesdirectheatfromsunlight,withouttheneedtoconverttheenergyintoelectricity.Thesimplestformofsolarthermalheatingisachievedsimplybypumpingwaterthroughasystemoflight-absorbingtubes,usuallymountedonarooftop.Thetubesabsorbsunlight,andheatthewaterflowingwithinthem.Themostcommonuseforsolarthermalheatingishotwatersystems,buttheyarealsousedforswimmingpoolheatingorspaceheating.

Therearetwomaintypesofsolarwaterheaters:flat-plateandevacuatedtubesystems(figure10.26).Flat-platesystemsarethemostwidespreadandmaturetechnology.Theyuseanarrayofverysmalltubes,coveredbyatransparentglazingforinsulation.Evacuatedtubesconsistofasunlightabsorbingmetaltube,insidetwoconcentrictransparentglasstubes.Thespacebetweenthetwoglasstubesis

evacuatedtopreventlossesduetoconvection.Evacuatedtubeshavelowerheatlossesthanflatplatecollectors,givingthemanadvantageinwinterconditions.However,flat-platesystemsaregenerallycheaper,duetotheirrelativecommercialmaturity.

Solarthermalheatingisamaturetechnologyandrelativelyinexpensivecomparedtoothersolartechnologies.Thiscostadvantagehasmeantthatsolarthermalheatinghasthelargestenergyproductionofanysolartechnology.Insomecountrieswithfavourablesunlightconditions,solarwaterheatershavegainedasubstantialmarketshareofwaterheaters.Forexample,theproportionofhouseholdswithsolarwaterheatersintheNorthernTerritorywas54percentin2008(CEC2009)whereasinIsraelthisproportionisapproximately 90percent(CSIRO2010).

Figure 10.26 (a)Flat-platesolarwaterheater. (b)EvacuatedtubesolarwaterheaterSource: WesternAustralianSustainableEnergyDevelopmentOffice2009;HillsSolar(SolarSolutionsforLife)2009


282

Solar air conditioningSolarthermalenergycanalsobeusedtodriveair-conditioningsystems.Sorptioncoolingusesaheatsourcetodrivearefrigerationcycle,andcanbeintegratedwithsolarthermalheatcollectorstoprovidesolarair-conditioning.Sincesunlightisgenerallystrongwhenair-conditioningismostneeded,solarair-conditioningcanbeusedtobalancepeaksummerelectricityloads.However,anumberofdevelopmentsarerequiredbeforesolarair-conditioningbecomescostcompetitiveinAustralia(CSIRO2010).

Passive solar heatingSolarenergycanalsobeusedtoheatbuildingsdirectly,throughdesigningbuildingsthatcapturesunlightandstoreheatthatcanbeusedatnight.Thisprocessiscalledpassivesolarheating,andcansaveenergy(electricityandgas)thatwouldotherwisebeneededtoheatbuildingsduringcoldweather.Newbuildingscanbeconstructedwithpassivesolarheatingfeaturesatminimalextracost,providingareliablesourceofheatingthatcangreatlyreduceenergydemandsinwinter(AZSC2009).

Passivesolarheatingusuallyrequirestwo

basicelements:anorth-facing(intheSouthernHemisphere)windowoftransparentmaterialthatallowssunlighttoenterthebuilding;andathermalstoragematerialthatabsorbsandstoresheat.Passivesolarheatingmustalsobeintegratedwithinsulationtoprovideefficientstorageofheat,androofdesignsthatcanmaximiseexposureinwinter,andminimiseexposureinsummer.Althoughsomeofthesefeaturescanberetrofittedtoexistingbuildings,thebestprospectsforpassivesolarheatingareinthedesignofnewbuildings.

Combined heat and power systemsAtechnologyunderdevelopmentinAustraliaandoverseasisthecombinedheatandpowersystem,combiningsolarthermalheatingwithPVtechnology(ANU2009).Typicallythisconsistsofasmall-scaleconcentratingparabolictroughsystemwithacentralPVreceiver,wherethereceiveriscoupledtoacoolingfluid.WhilethePVproduceselectricity,heatisextractedfromthecoolingfluidandcanbeusedinthesamewayasaconventionalsolarthermalheater.Thesesystemscanachieveagreaterefficiencyofenergyconversion,byusingthesamesunlightfortwopurposes.Thesesystemsarebeingtargetedforsmall-scalerooftopapplications.

Electricitygenerationfromsolarenergyisprojectedtoincreasestrongly,fromonly0.1TWhin2007–08to4TWhin2029–30,representinganaverageannualgrowthrateof17.4percent(figure10.28).Theshareofsolarenergyinelectricitygenerationisalsoprojectedtoincrease,from0.04percentin2007–08to1percentin2029–30.

Whilehighinvestmentcostscurrentlyrepresentabarriertomorewidespreaduseofsolarenergy,thereisconsiderablescopeforthecostofsolartechnologiestodeclinesignificantlyovertime.Thecompetitivenessofsolarenergywillalsodependongovernmentpolicies.TheRET,theresultsofRD&D

programsandtheproposedemissionsreductiontargetareallexpectedtounderpinthegrowthofsolarenergyovertheoutlookperiod.

Proposed development projectsAsatOctober2009,therewerenosolarprojectsnearingcompletioninAustralia(table10.5).Therearecurrentlyfiveproposedsolarprojects,withacombinedcapacityof116MW.ThelargestoftheseprojectsisWizardPower’s$355millionWhyallaSolarOasis,whichwillbelocatedinSouthAustralia.Theprojectisexpectedtohaveacapacityof80MWandisscheduledtobecompletedby2012.

24

20

16

12

8

4

0

0.30

0.25

0.20

PJ 0.15 %

0.10

0.05

0

Solar energy consumption (PJ)

Share of total (%)

1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2029-00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 30

YearAERA 10.2

Figure 10.27 Projectedprimaryenergyconsumption ofsolarenergy


%

AERA 10.3

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

1.1

0.9

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.2

01999-

002000-

012001-

022002-

032003-

042004-

052005-

062006-

072007-

08

TWh

2029-30


Share of total (%)

Year

Figure 10.28 Projectedelectricitygenerationfrom solar energy



283


Table 10.4 OutlookforAustralia’ssolarmarketto2029–30

unit 2007–08 2029–30

Primary energy consumption

Shareoftotal

PJ

%

7

0.1

24

0.3

Averageannualgrowth,2007–08to20029–30

Electricity generation

Electricityoutput

Shareoftotal

%

TWh

%

0.1

0.04

5.9

4

1.0

Averageannualgrowth,2007–08to2029–30 % 17.4

a Energyproductionandprimaryenergyconsumptionareidentical Source: ABARE2009a,2010

Table 10.5 Proposedsolarenergyprojects

Project Company Location Status Start up Capacity Capital expenditure

SolarGasOne CSIROandQldGovernment

Qld Governmentgrantreceived

2012 1MW na

LakeCargelligosolarthermalproject

LloydEnergySystems

LakeCargelligo,NSW

Governmentgrantreceived

na 3MW na

Cloncurrysolarthermalpowerstation

LloydEnergySystems

Cloncurry,Qld Governmentgrantreceived

2010 10MW $31m

ACTsolarpowerplant

ACTGovernment Tobedetermined,ACT

Pre-feasibilitystudycompleted

2012 22MW $141m

WhyallaSolarOasis

WizardPower Whyalla,SA Feasibilitystudyunderway

2012 80MW $355m

Source: ABARE2009c;LloydEnergySystems2007

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