Chapter 10 Population, Resources, and Sustainability.

Chapter 10Chapter 10

Population, Resources, and Population, Resources, and SustainabilitySustainability

Key QuestionsKey Questions

How is population size affected by the How is population size affected by the number of males and females at each age number of males and females at each age level?level?

How can population growth be slowed?How can population growth be slowed?What success have India and China had in What success have India and China had in

slowing population growth?slowing population growth?How can global population growth be How can global population growth be

reduced?reduced?

How is Population Size Affected by How is Population Size Affected by Birth and Death Rates?Birth and Death Rates?

Population size depends on: births, deaths, and Population size depends on: births, deaths, and migrationmigration

Population change = (births + immigration) – Population change = (births + immigration) – (deaths + emigration)(deaths + emigration)

When births and immigration are When births and immigration are more more than than deaths and emigration, population is deaths and emigration, population is growinggrowing

When deaths and emigration are When deaths and emigration are moremore than than births and immigration, population is decliningbirths and immigration, population is declining

How Do We Find Birth and Death How Do We Find Birth and Death Rates?Rates?

Crude birth rateCrude birth rate: number of live births : number of live births per 1,000 people in a population in a per 1,000 people in a population in a yearyear

Crude death rateCrude death rate: number of deaths : number of deaths per 1,000 people in a population in a per 1,000 people in a population in a yearyear

Average crude birth rate Average crude death rate

World

All developedcountries

All developingcountries

Developingcountries

(w/o China)

21

9

11

10

24

8

29

9

© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

Some FactsSome Facts

Every time your heart beats, 2.3 more Every time your heart beats, 2.3 more babies are added to the world’s populationbabies are added to the world’s population

More births are occurring than deathsMore births are occurring than deathsWe share the earth’s resources with We share the earth’s resources with

216,000 216,000 moremore people each day people each dayEquivalent of filling up a jumbo jet with 400 Equivalent of filling up a jumbo jet with 400

new passengers every 2.7 minutes!new passengers every 2.7 minutes!

Calculate the World’s Annual Calculate the World’s Annual Population ChangePopulation Change

Annual rate of population change (%) = Annual rate of population change (%) = birth rate – death ratebirth rate – death rate x 100 x 100

1,000 people1,000 people

= = birth rate – death ratebirth rate – death rate

1010

<1%

1-1.9%

2-2.9%

3+%

Data notavailable

Annual worldpopulation growth

MapMap

An exponential growth rate of 1.28% may An exponential growth rate of 1.28% may seem small, but it adds about 79 million seem small, but it adds about 79 million people per year to the world’s population!people per year to the world’s population!

Equivalent to adding a New York City Equivalent to adding a New York City every month!every month!

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.01950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0

2

4

6

8

10

Gro

wth

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Po

pu

lation

in b

illion

s

Year

Less developed countries

More developed countries

World’s 10 Most Populous World’s 10 Most Populous CountriesCountries

China and India together make up 37% of China and India together make up 37% of the world’s populationthe world’s population

The US has the 3The US has the 3rdrd largest population, but largest population, but only 4.6% of the world’s peopleonly 4.6% of the world’s people

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India

USA

Indonesia

Brazil

Pakistan

Russia

Bangladesh

Japan

Nigeria

2002 2025

1.28 billion1.5 billion

1 billion1.4 billion

288 million

346 million

217 million282 million

174 million

219 million

144 million

242 million


134 million

178 million

127 million

121 million


How have Global Fertility Rates How have Global Fertility Rates Changed?Changed?

1. 1. Replacement fertilityReplacement fertility: number of : number of children a couple must have to replace children a couple must have to replace themselvesthemselves

Slightly higher than 2 in Slightly higher than 2 in developed developed countries and 2.5 in most countries and 2.5 in most developing developing countries countries

Reason? Some female children die before Reason? Some female children die before reproductive yearsreproductive years

How have Global Fertility Rates How have Global Fertility Rates Changed?Changed?

2. 2. Total Fertility RateTotal Fertility Rate: estimate of the : estimate of the average number of children a female will average number of children a female will have during her childbearing yearshave during her childbearing years

TFRs have sharply dropped since 1950TFRs have sharply dropped since 1950

World

Developedcountries

Developingcountries

Africa

LatinAmerica

Asia

Oceania

NorthAmerica

Europe

5 children per women2.8

2.5

1.6

6.53.1

6.65.2

5.92.7

5.92.6

3.82.5

3.52.1

2.61.4

1950 2002

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0Bir

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1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Demographictransition

Depression

End of World War II

Baby boom Baby bust Echo baby boom

U.S. Birth Rates Fell Sharply U.S. Birth Rates Fell Sharply because…because…

Demographic transitionDemographic transition: :

Industrialization and urbanizationIndustrialization and urbanization

Educated women working outside homeEducated women working outside home

THEN,THEN,

Baby Boom PeriodBaby Boom Period: after WW1: after WW1

Echo Boom PeriodEcho Boom Period: people born during baby : people born during baby boom started having childrenboom started having children

What Factors Affect Birth Rates?What Factors Affect Birth Rates?

Importance of children as part of labor forceImportance of children as part of labor force UrbanizationUrbanization Cost of raising childrenCost of raising children Employment opportunities for womenEmployment opportunities for women Infant mortality rateInfant mortality rate Average age at marriageAverage age at marriage Availability of abortionsAvailability of abortions Availability of birth controlAvailability of birth control Religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural normsReligious beliefs, traditions, and cultural norms

What Factors Affect Death Rates?What Factors Affect Death Rates?

Food supply and distributionFood supply and distributionNutritionNutritionImprovements in medical technologyImprovements in medical technologyImprovements in sanitization and Improvements in sanitization and

personal hygienepersonal hygieneSafer water suppliesSafer water supplies

Life ExpectancyLife Expectancy

Average number of years a newborn infant Average number of years a newborn infant can be expected to livecan be expected to live

In the world’s poorest countries, life In the world’s poorest countries, life expectancy is 55 years or less.expectancy is 55 years or less.

High infant mortality rate = not enough High infant mortality rate = not enough food, malnutrition, or high infectious food, malnutrition, or high infectious diseasesdiseases

United States Mexico Canada

Population(2002)

Projected population(2025)

346 million

Infant mortality rate

Lifeexpectancy

Total fertilityrate (TFR)

% populationunder age 15

% populationover age 65

Per capitaGNI PPP


31 million


6.625

5.3

2.12.9

1.5

21%33%

19%

13%

13%5%

$8,790

77 years75 years

79 years

$34,110

$27,170


Infant Mortality and Birth RatesInfant Mortality and Birth Rates

U.S. has the highest teen pregnancy rate U.S. has the highest teen pregnancy rate of any developed country. of any developed country.

Each year, 872,000 teenage girls become Each year, 872,000 teenage girls become pregnant and 253,000 have abortionspregnant and 253,000 have abortions

Babies born to teenage mothers usually Babies born to teenage mothers usually have have low birth weightlow birth weight which causes infant which causes infant mortality.mortality.

What Are Age Structure Diagrams?What Are Age Structure Diagrams?

Age structureAge structure: the proportion of the : the proportion of the population at each age levelpopulation at each age level

Plot percentages of males and females Plot percentages of males and females in the population in each of in the population in each of 3 categories3 categories::

1.1. PrereproductivePrereproductive: ages 0-14: ages 0-14

2.2. ReproductiveReproductive: ages 15-44: ages 15-44

3.3. PostreproductivePostreproductive: ages 45 and up: ages 45 and up

Male Female

Rapid GrowthGuatemala

NigeriaSaudi Arabia

Slow GrowthUnited States

AustraliaCanada

Male Female

Ages 0-14 Ages 15-44 Ages 45-85+


Zero GrowthSpainAustriaGreece

Negative GrowthGermanyBulgariaSweden

Male Female Male Female

Ages 0-14 Ages 15-44 Ages 45-85+


300 200 100 0 100 200 300

85+

80-85

75-79

70-74

65-69

60-64

55-59

50-54

45-49

40-44

35-39

30-34

25-29

20-24

15-19

10-14

5-9

0-4

Male Female

Population (millions)

Ag

e

Developed Countries


300 200 100 0 100 200 300

85+

80-85

75-79

70-74

65-69

60-64

55-59

50-54

45-49

40-44

35-39

30-34

25-29

20-24

15-19

10-14

5-9

0-4

Male Female

Population (millions)

Ag

e

Developing Countries


Population(2002)

Populationprojected

(2025)

Infantmortality

rate

Lifeexpectancy

Fertilityrate (TFR)

%Populationunder

age 15

% Populationover

age 65

Per capitaGNI PPP

(2000)


130 million


205 million

6.833

75

77 years

69 years52 years

2.12.2

5.8

21%33%

44%

13%5%

3%

$34,100$7,300

$800

United States (highly developed)

Brazil (moderately developed)

Nigeria (less developed)


What Are Some Effects of What Are Some Effects of Population Decline from Reduced Population Decline from Reduced

Fertility?Fertility?

As the % of people over 60 increases, more As the % of people over 60 increases, more countries will experience population declinescountries will experience population declines

By 2020, 1 billion people will be 60 or older. By 2020, 1 billion people will be 60 or older. Rapid population decline can lead to serious Rapid population decline can lead to serious

economic and social problemseconomic and social problems

ExampleExample: older people consume a large part of : older people consume a large part of medical care, Social Security, and other services medical care, Social Security, and other services funded by taxpayersfunded by taxpayers

labor shortageslabor shortages

What Are Some Effects of What Are Some Effects of Population Decline from Rise in Population Decline from Rise in

Death Rates?Death Rates? Sharp drop in life expectancySharp drop in life expectancy Loss of most productive young adult workersLoss of most productive young adult workers Sharp rise in number of orphansSharp rise in number of orphans

We need to:We need to:

1.1. Reduce the spread of HIVReduce the spread of HIV

2.2. Provide debt relief and financial assistanceProvide debt relief and financial assistance

3.3. Send volunteer teachers and social workersSend volunteer teachers and social workers

Is the World Overpopulated?Is the World Overpopulated?

Is it Is it alreadyalready overpopulated? overpopulated?What should we do to stop population What should we do to stop population

growth?growth?What is the What is the optimum sustainable optimum sustainable

populationpopulation??No one knows!No one knows!

One ViewpointOne Viewpoint

The world can support billions more The world can support billions more peoplepeople

People are the world’s most valuable People are the world’s most valuable resource for solving problems and resource for solving problems and stimulating economic growth by being stimulating economic growth by being consumersconsumers

Population regulation is a violation of Population regulation is a violation of personal freedompersonal freedom

An Opposing ViewpointAn Opposing Viewpoint

We already fail to provide the basic We already fail to provide the basic necessities to 1 out of 5 people todaynecessities to 1 out of 5 people today

If we do not take measures to drop the If we do not take measures to drop the birth rate, we are increasing the death ratebirth rate, we are increasing the death rate

We greatly increase environmental harmWe greatly increase environmental harm

Stages of Development in Stages of Development in Countries Countries

PreindustrialPreindustrial: very little population growth : very little population growth due to harsh living conditionsdue to harsh living conditions

TransitionalTransitional: industrialization begins; food : industrialization begins; food production rises and health care improves; production rises and health care improves; population grows rapidlypopulation grows rapidly

IndustrialIndustrial: birth rate drops; population : birth rate drops; population growth slowsgrowth slows

PostindustrialPostindustrial: birth rate declines; zero : birth rate declines; zero population growthpopulation growth

How Do We Cut Global Population How Do We Cut Global Population Growth?Growth?

Family planningFamily planningEmpowering women: women have fewer Empowering women: women have fewer

and healthier children when they have and healthier children when they have access to education and paying jobs AND access to education and paying jobs AND when they live in societies with rightswhen they live in societies with rights

Reduce povertyReduce poverty

Chapter 10 Population, Resources, and Sustainability.

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Transcript of Chapter 10 Population, Resources, and Sustainability.