Chapter 1

Managing Peace and Security: Regional and International Conflict

Chapter Overview

Chapter 1

Gulf War-Historical background-Causes and mediation attempts -Invasion-Responses to the invasion-Impact

Transnational Terrorism-What is terrorism?-9/11 attacks-Impact-How to manage transnational terrorism

Historical Background

• Where is the Middle East?

Historical Background

• What is the Middle East like?– Largest ethnic group are the Arabs, with Islam as the

main religion in the Middle East– Wide economic gap: those with oil reserves, such as

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, are the richest in the region

• Importance of the Middle East– Most important oil-producing regions

• Gulf States: Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE

– Controls the Suez Canal, an important trade route which links Europe to the Middle East and Asia

Historical Background(Iraq and Kuwait)

• Both share common history and culture as they were both under the Ottoman Empire and Britain

• Kuwait gained independence in 1961 but Iraq refused to acknowledge it– Iraq attempted to claim sovereignty over Kuwait and sent troops

to do so in 1961– Stopped claim over Kuwait after facing pressure from its Arab

neighbours and receiving large sum of money from Kuwait

• Evidence of cooperation between Iraq and Kuwait– Kuwait lent US$14 billion to Iraq in the Iran-Iraq War of 1960s,

though it was because Kuwait was worried about the threat posed by Iran, especially after the 1979 Islamic Revolution that might lead to the rise of fundamentalism in the region

Causes of Conflict

Oil ProductionOil Production Dispute over territory

Dispute over territory

Iraq’s economic problem

Iraq’s economic problem

Causes of conflict between

Iraq and Kuwait(a.k.a. Gulf War)

Causes of conflict between

Iraq and Kuwait(a.k.a. Gulf War)

Causes of Conflict

• Economic impact of Iran-Iraq War– Before the war of 1980-1988, Iraq was rich

with US$35 billion in reserves– After the war, Iraq lost many lives and owed

US$80 billion to countries, such as the US and France

– Reconstruction cost to rebuild the war-torn Iraq was US$320 million

Causes of Conflict

• Oil Production– Falling oil prices due to over-production by some

countries– OPEC put quotas on the amount of oil production by

its member countries, but Kuwait and the UAE ignored the quota

• Result: Oil prices fell from US$18 to US$7 per barrel at one point

– Iraq lost US$1 billion from oil sales each time oil price fell by US$1

– Iraq was severely disadvantaged by the actions of Kuwait&UAE because 90% of its income came from the sale of oil

Causes of Conflict• Dispute over territory

– Inherited borders from British but certain areas were vaguely demarcated

A. Rumaila oilfield– Iraq and Kuwait shared the profitable Rumaila oilfield– 1990: Iraq accused Kuwait of stealing oil by slant drilling method– Kuwait insisted that they only drilled from their side of the oilfield but

Iraq demanded that Kuwait stopped drilling from the Rumaila oilfield entirely and paid US$2.4 billion in compensation. Kuwait refused to comply

B. Bubiyan and Warbah Islands– Iraq’s only port is Umm Qasr, which is shallow and big ships cannot

dock. This port was heavily damaged after the Iran-Iraq War. The port is important for Iraq’s oil transportation

– Kuwait’s Bubiyan and Warbah were strategically located off Umm Qasr. This meant Kuwait could easily block off Iraq’s access to the Gulf, which would affect Iraq’s oil transportation

– Iraq had been claiming the two islands in the 1960s and 1970s but failed. From 1978, Iraq wanted to lease the islands from Kuwait but Kuwait refused, for fear of further territorial demands from Iraq

Causes of Conflict

Trivia Time

In 1990 Iraq accused Kuwait of stealing Iraq's oil through slant drilling. Such claims are doubted to have been serious enough to justify war or the occupation of Kuwait, since the limits of slant drilling (at the time) made it unlikely that any such well could have been drilled much more than a mile from the surface location. Even doing so would have involved drilling sites close to the border and the use of sophisticated and easily identifiable equipment and personnel for extreme distances. The United Nations redrew the border after the 1991 Gulf War that liberated Kuwait from a seven-month Iraqi occupation under former leader Saddam Hussein. It placed 11 oil wells, some farms and an old naval base that used to be in Iraq on the Kuwaiti side.

Mediation Attempts

• The Arab League

Mediation Attempts

• Mediation by the Arab League– Iraq’s complaints against Kuwait to the Arab League:

• Theft of oil from the Rumaila oilfield• Kuwait and the rest of the Arab countries should write off

Iraq’s debt because Iraq attacked Iran for the good of the entire Arab region

– Efforts by the Arab League:• Saudi Arabia wrote off Iraq’s war-time loans• Pressured Kuwait and UAE until they agreed to abide by the

OPEC oil quota, though Iraq claimed that it had information that Kuwait did not intend to adhere to the quota for long

• Organised dialogue between Iraq and Kuwait over the outstanding territorial dispute

Mediation Attempts

• Were the attempts successful?– Negotiations were going well as Iraq gained some

concessions from Kuwait and other Arab countries. OPEC ministers also agreed to raise oil prices to US$21 per barrel, up from US$18. Iraq would thus have more money to rebuild the country

– 1 August 1990: Kuwait agreed to write off Iraq’s wartime debt and loaned US$500 million to Iraq. However, Iraq walked out of the meeting when Kuwait refused Iraq’s territorial demands

– Kuwait was not alarmed and expected the talks to resume on 4 August 1990. However, on 2 August 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait. Kuwait was not prepared and fell to Iraq within 12 hours of the invasion

Why the invasion?

• Iraq’s official reason– The Iraqi government claimed that Kuwait’s

revolutionaries requested Iraq to liberate them from the ruling government.

– Iraq threatened to kill Kuwaitis if foreign powers intervene

Why the invasion?

• Saddam Hussein’s leadership– Saddam felt that Kuwait’s repeated refusals to give in

to Iraqi’s demands were a personal attack on him– Saddam, a Sunni Muslim, was worried that there

would be uprising in Iraq, especially from the majority Shi’a Muslims of Iraq. This was because of the devastating living conditions after the Iran-Iraq War. Also, the Iraqi government had built a large army, numbering 1 million personnel during the war. Saddam feared that the army would turn against him if the situation in Iraq did not improve

Why the invasion?

• Misreading the position of the US– Saddam believed that the Americans were

sympathetic to Iraq’s situation and would not aid Kuwait

Trivia Time

On Wednesday July 25, 1990, the American Ambassador in Iraq, April Glaspie, asked the Iraqi high command to explain the military preparations in progress, including the massing of Iraqi troops near the border. The American ambassador declared to her Iraqi interlocutor that Washington, “inspired by the friendship and not by confrontation, does not have an opinion” on the disagreement which opposes Kuwait to Iraq, stating "we have no opinion on the Arab-Arab conflicts". She also let Saddam Hussein know that the U.S. did not intend "to start an economic war against Iraq". These statements may have misled Saddam into believing he had received a diplomatic green light from the United States to invade Kuwait (New York Times, September 23, 1990).

Practice TimeWhat is the cartoonist trying to say in this cartoon?

Iraq’s Invasion on Kuwait• Date: August 2, 1990 – February 28, 1991 (officially ended

November 30, 1995)• Location: Persian Gulf (also known as GULF WAR)• Parties Involved: Iraq Vs. Coalition Forces (35 countries)• Result:

– Decisive Coalition victory – Liberation of Kuwait – Heavy casualties and destruction of Iraqi and Kuwaiti infrastructure – Internal rising against Saddam Hussein suppressed – Establishment of US military presence in Saudi Arabia – Saudi scorn of Osama Bin Laden – Imposition of UN Sanctions against Iraq – Palestinian Expulsion from Kuwait

Video Time

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsR262Zxjyk

Reactions to the Invasion

• Fear of Iraqi dominance– By invading Kuwait, Iraq controlled 20% of the

world’s oil production– Iraq easily invaded Kuwait and it might

encouraged Iraq to be bolder and make Saudi its next target. With such easy access to oil, Iraq could set a high price on oil and used the money to solve its financial problems

– Iraq’s armed forces were much stronger than Saudi’s

Reactions to the Invasion

• The ‘Arab Solution’– Arab countries did not wish to get the western powers’

help in solving the Iraq-Kuwait conflict, for fear of the return of western imperialism in Middle East

– The Arab League voted to condemn Iraqi actions as well as calling upon Iraq to withdraw from Kuwait. The vote was passed marginally. However, 8 of the Arab League members did not support the vote. As such, the League was divided on their responses to the invasion

Reactions to the Invasion

• American response– Due to the large number of Iraqi troops at the

Saudi border, Saudi Arabia officially invited for the US to help

– The US launched its Operation Desert Shield, backed by Britain, France and some members of the Arab League. This coalition to aid Kuwait consisted of more than 30 countries.

Reactions to the Invasion

• International response– The US led the international community in

condemning Iraq’s invasion and forming coalition to aid Kuwait

– The UN Security Council passed a resolution unanimously, demanding Iraq’s complete and immediate withdrawal from Kuwait and called for Iraq and Kuwait to begin immediate and intensive negotiations to resolve their differences

– Kuwaiti and Iraqi’s asset worldwide frozen to prevent Iraq from misusing funds

– Economic and military sanctions were used to force Iraq out of Kuwait

Reactions to the Invasion

• International response– Sanctions: coercive measures adopted usually by

several nations in unison to force a nation that has violated international law to stop or give in

– Economic sanction on Iraq: • No country was allowed to sell goods to Iraq, other than food

and medical supplies• Intended to cripple Iraq economically so that Iraq could not

earn money from its sale of oil. This was significant as Iraq imported more than 90% of its goods from overseas

Practice TimeWhat does the author think of the UN’s efficiency in solving conflict?Source A: A view by a political scientist on reason why the UN was able to act decisivelyIn comparison to its conduct in other conflicts, from the onset of the Kuwait crisis, the Security Council acted more speedily, decisively, and comprehensively. The reasons were many, including improved cooperation between its five permanent members, especially between the United States and the Soviet Union, the non-confrontational attitude of China, the split among the 70 odd non-aligned members and ability of the United States to assume a leadership position.

Was Force the Only Way Out?

• Iraq’s response to diplomatic attempt(Recall: Diplomacy and Deterrence)

– Right after the invasion, Iraq responded well to diplomatic attempts by the Arab leaders. Iraq agreed to withdraw from Kuwait but refused to restore the ruling government back in power

– The Arab League then voted to condemn Saddam’s action and this upset him. He was also unhappy with the presence of US troops in Saudi. As a result, he declared annexation of Kuwait and regarded Kuwait as part of Iraq

– As more countries join the coalition, Iraq took Westerners from Iraq and Kuwait to be human shields to deter coalition attacks and bombings. Hostages would only be released upon withdrawal of the coalition troops

Was Force the Only Way Out?

• Iraq’s response to diplomatic attempts (Recall: Diplomacy and Deterrence)

– Women and children hostages were later on released as international criticism against Iraq increased. Diplomatic efforts secured the release of the rest of the hostages a few months later

– With the increasing number of troops in Saudi Arabia, Iraq indicated that it was willing to discuss its withdrawal from Kuwait, with some conditions:

• Sanctions on Iraq put to an end• Full Iraqi control of the Rumaila oilfield• Guaranteed access to the Gulf

– The Americans refused to accept the conditions. The UN gave Iraq up to 15 Jan 1991 to withdraw

– In a final attempt to prevent war, the US arranged a meeting between the Iraqi and the US Secretary General of State in Geneva, Switzerland, a few days before 15 Jan 1991. No resolution was reached. The UN Secretary General and France attempted another diplomatic talk but it also failed

Was Force the Only Way Out?

• Impact of economic sanction– There was a debate in the US whether force was

really needed to get Iraq out of Kuwait or the sanctions alone would be sufficient

– The full impact of the sanction would only be felt by Iraq after a year or so and this was perceived by the US to be too long to get Iraq out of Kuwait

– Also, sanctions only worked if all UN members strictly adhere to them. Some countries might ignore the sanctions for economic gains.

– Therefore, the Security Council voted to use force to remove Iraq from Kuwait

Was Force the Only Way Out?

• Outbreak of War– Iraq did not comply to the 15 January 1991

deadline. Thus Operation Desert Storm began• Aim: to force Iraq out of Kuwait• Target: communication centres and Iraqi air force• Strategy: air campaign and bombing campaign• Ceasefire: when Kuwait City was regained. The

war officially ended soon after

Timeline of the Iraq-Kuwait Conflict• 24 July 1990: Iraq accused Kuwait of attempting to harm its economy

through over-production of oil. Thousands of troops and hundreds of Iraqi tanks gathered at Kuwait’s border

• 1 Aug 1990: Iraq pulled out of talks with Kuwait• 2 Aug 1990: Iraq invaded Kuwait. UN condemned the invasion and

demanded unconditional withdrawal of Iraqi troops from Kuwait• 8 Aug 1990: Operation Desert Shield began. US troops and

warplanes were deployed in Saudi in anticipation of an invasion by Iraq

• 29 Nov 1990: UN Security Council issued an ultimatum authorising military action if Iraq did not withdraw from Kuwait by 15 Jan 1991

• 30 Nov 1990: US President George Bush invited Saddam to participate in joint talks

• 15 Jan 1991: Iraq ignored UN’s ultimatum• 17 Jan 1991: Operation Desert Storm began with invasion of Iraq by

coalition forces• 27 Feb 1991: Coalition troops liberated Kuwait• 28 Feb 1991: War ended with Iraq accepting all UN resolutions

What Was the Impact of the Conflict?

1. Impact on Kuwait• More than 1,000 Kuwaiti civilians were killed

and thousands tortured• Museums, hospitals, shops and homes were

also looted by the Iraqi soldiers• Iraqi set fire on 600 out of the 950 oil wells in

Kuwait• Damages in Kuwait amounted to over

US$25 billion

What Was the Impact of the Conflict?

2. Impact on Iraq A. Iraq’s Army Destroyed

– One third of Iraq’s military power was destroyed and was no longer the army feared by many

– The coalition forces could destroy Iraq’s army because they used sophisticated weapons, such as the Tomahawk cruise missiles, F-14s and F-117 Stealth warplanes to destroy the Iraqi air force

– Thus, the air force was not able to cover the ground troops. With the coalition forces commanding the air space, they were able to carry out a sustained bombing campaign against the Iraqi ground troops

– Iraqi tanks, armoured vehicles, trucks and troops fleeing the coalition forces, formed a long queue on the main road north from Kuwait to the southern Iraqi city of Basra. They were eventually bombed by the coalition warplanes and this road was later known as the Highway of Death

What Was the Impact of the Conflict?

2. Impact on Iraq B. Political Stability in Iraq

– The Kurds, encouraged by the coalition leaders, rose up against Saddam Hussein. The Kurds were a group in Iraq dissatisfied with Saddam’s government. They had been fighting for a homeland of their own and had been put down by the Iraqi government a few times

– During the Gulf War, Saddam’s power was declining and the Kurds were led to believe that the coalition forces would back them up in going against the Iraqi leader. However, Saddam dealt harshly with the Kurds. Many Kurds were killed and almost one million Kurdish fled Iraq

– The coalition leaders were criticised for abandoning the Kurds. The UN passed a resolution that condemned Iraq’s handling of the Kurdish issue and allowed foreign intervention in Iraq’s internal affairs as Iraq’s actions were threatening the peace and security of the region. Peacekeepers were sent to northern Iraq to ensure the safety of the Kurds

What Was the Impact of the Conflict?

2. Impact on Iraq C. Suffering of the Iraqis

– The Operation Desert Storm resulted in the destruction of a large part of the Iraqi infrastructure, disrupted the supply of electricity, led to the spread of disease as the water supply was contaminated because the water purification and sewage treatment facilities could not

– As a result, the Iraqi’s daily activities were greatly affected

What Was the Impact of the Conflict?

3. Regional and International Impact A. Environmental Catastrophe– When Iraq was losing the

battle, Iraqi forces burnt Kuwait’s oil wells and dumped about 11 million barrels of oil into the Persian Gulf

– This resulted in marine life being threatened and much money spent to put out fires and clear the oil slick from the Persian Gulf

What Was the Impact of the Conflict?

3. Regional and International Impact A. Displacement of Foreign Workers– Nearly 2 million foreign

workers from Bangladesh, India, Egypt, the Philippines and Palestine fled the country when the war broke out

– These workers’ loss of job meant loss of income for their families back home, as they were the sole bread winners for their families back home

Was the UN Successful in Handling the Crisis?

• The UN was particularly successful in the Iraq-Kuwait crisis because the five permanent members of the Security Council supported the resolutions against Iraq

– Reason: the Cold War had ended and Russia and China did not vote against resolutions proposed by the US. Majority of the permanent members of the Security Council also had strong interest in the oil supply of the Middle East and wanted an end to the conflict

• UN involvement in the Gulf War gave the war legitimacy that the US might have had if it were to handle Iraq issues on its own

• The operation against Iraq required many troops and equipment, which were supplied by the Western countries. This support was largely due to the strategic interests of the US and other wealthy western countries on the oil prices

• Oil prices jumped 15% in the first few days of the Iraqi invasion. If the price continued to increase, this would have a harmful effect on their economies

Moral of the Story

• The Gulf War was resolved in a relatively short period of time because the aggressor is KNOWN

• Diplomatic attempts are always first priority

• Should diplomacy fail, then deterrence, such as that of the coalition forces, would come into the picture