The world’s population is predicted to hit 9Bn by 2050, up from today’s total of nearly 6.8Bn, and

with it food demand is predicted to increase substantially.

GLOBAL FOOD ISSUES

The food price spike of 2008 was a warning of what is to come. Staple food prices rocketed – wheat up 130%; sorghum rose by 87% and rice 74% – and caused riots in 36 countries. The government of Haiti was toppled as people took to the streets. 2008 saw civil unrest due to the price of food and fertilizer.

More people die each year from hunger and malnutrition than from AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria combined, and the World Bank estimates that cereal production needs to increase by 50% and meat production by 85% between 2000 and 2030 to meet demand.

In early 2009, food crises persisted in 32 countries from the 36 affected in 2008. And all at a time global food reserves are at their lowest levels for 30 years.

Put simply, the world needs to grow more food now.

There are many factors that affect food production. The post-war ‘second agricultural revolution’ in developed countries, and the ‘green revolution’ in developing nations in the mid-1960s transformed agricultural practices and raised crop yields dramatically, but the effect is leveling off and will not meet projected demand. Per capita increases in food production have stalled.

PROBLEMS

At the same time, many other factors are having severe impacts on food production: water stress and desertification is reducing the amount of arable land; many pests are becoming resistant to insecticides, but many of the most effective chemical agents are now banned under environmental regulations; underdeveloped infrastructure means that losses increase further during transport and storage; consumption patterns are changing and developing nations such as India and China have an increased appetite for meat, and climate change is bringing new microbial diseases to food-growing regions along with more extreme and unpredictable weather patterns

Estimates vary, but around 25% of crops can be lost to pests and diseases, such as insects, fungi and other plant pathogens.New pest outbreaks: In early 2009, a state of emergency was declared in Liberia after it was invaded by a new species of caterpillar. The caterpillars in Liberia struck 65 towns, and the Ministry of Agriculture reported that up to 20,000 people left their homes, the fields empty and markets devoid of food that had more than doubled cost in surrounding areas. The pest was later identified as Achaea catocaloides.

PESTILENCE

Another was the African Armyworm. Armyworms are a serious pest in Kenya, Tanzania and surrounding countries in most years. In particularly bad years, such as 2005, larval densities exceeded 1000 per square meter and crops were destroyed in a matter of hours.

Pests may consume large quantities of crops once they are grown, or prevent them growing at all, but in the

developing world up to 37% of food harvested can be lost before it is consumed owing to insufficient processing,

storage and transport. Estimates vary, but figures for rice losses include 5-23% in China and 10-25% in Vietnam. And when 20% of food is lost it’s not just the food that is wasted

– it’s 20% of the land, water, labor, seed, pesticide and fertilizer – so a financial and environmental loss too.

Similar losses are echoed in the UK. Every day 4.4M apples, 5.1M potatoes, 2.8M tomatoes and 1.6M bananas

are binned.

WASTE

Countries are keen to divert water to irrigate land on large scales, for example by building large hydroelectric dams and mega-canal projects, because relying on rainfall can adversely affect an entire continent. In South America, the 2008 wheat production was halved by drought in Argentina, and persistent dry weather is adversely affecting prospects for the 2009 coarse grains in the sub-region. Irrigation has drained the Aral Sea.

WATER

In the Middle East, Turkey and Syria have both dammed the Euphrates, which puts water stress on downstream Iraq. Furthermore, the River Jordan, which supplies water to Israel, Syria, Jordan and the Palestinian territories, could shrink by up to 80% by the end of the century, sparking tensions in an already volatile region.

Climate change associated with agriculture is also a global issue. Agriculture is a significant contributor to greenhouse gases and is estimated to account for 10-

12% of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Climate change is predicted to increase desertification.

It should be noted that climate change will benefit agriculture in some ways: extra CO2 in the

atmosphere will lead to plants fixing more carbon, and global warming will also lead to huge swathes of land, particularly in Siberia and Canada, becoming suitable

for industrial-scale farming.

CLIMATE CHANGE

However, a warming world will increase the amount of desert in the world, increase localized drought in areas such as North America, Africa and Australia, and may exacerbate problems such as flooding in Indonesia and South America. The increased temperature will also increase activity in insects – the principal pests of food – which may mitigate any yield benefits.

Climate change will be good and bad for food production, but it’s the pace of change that makes it a problem. If the world can’t establish new agricultural zones as fast as others are lost – as is predicted – the net result will be negative.

The modern agricultural practices argue that the improvements are not sustainable because the increased yields are tied to intensive application of oil-based fertilizers the cost of which is closely tied to the price of oil (and natural gas) which also peaked in 2008. The application of agrochemicals and irrigation systems also require large inputs of energyTotal fertilizer use has risen five-fold since 1960. Putting aside the issues of soil erosion, loss of fertility and reduced biodiversity associated with modern farming, they say the real problem is that meeting the food security agenda using current techniques cannot be achieved without serious degradation to the environment and will act as a catalyst to human-induced climate change.

SUSTAINABILITY

As National Farmers Union (NFU) President Peter Kendall remarked at their 2009 conference: “We are in an era when we must produce more, and at the same time impact on the environment less.”Many of the issues highlighted are global problems. Meeting the world’s food security challenge will require a multi-national, collaborative effort to integrate the best research from science, engineering and socioeconomics so that technological advances can bring benefits where they are most needed.

CONCLUSION