Changing Tides

1Changing Tides: hOW sea-LeveL Rise haRms WiLdLife and ReCReaTiOn eCOnOmies aLOng The U.s. easTeRn seabOaRd

CHANGING TIDESHow Sea-level RiSe HaRmS wildlife and RecReation economieS alonG tHe U.S. eaSteRn SeaBoaRd

2 Changing Tides: hOW sea-LeveL Rise haRms WiLdLife and ReCReaTiOn eCOnOmies aLOng The U.s. easTeRn seabOaRd

CHANGING TIDES

hOW sea-LeveL Rise haRms WiLdLife and ReCReaTiOn eCOnOmies aLOng The U.s. easTeRn seabOaRd

Copyright © 2016 National Wildlife Federation

Lead Authors: Lauren Anderson, Patty Glick, Shannon Heyck-Williams, and Jim Murphy.

We appreciate the work and dedication to conservation of all National Wildlife Federation staff and our 50 affiliate partners, which help make efforts like this possible. In particular, we wish to thank the following contributors to this report:

Catherine Bowes, Zach Cockrum, Hilary Falk, Manley Fuller, Melissa Gaydos, Tim Gestwicki, Steve Gilbert, Brenna Goggin, Ben Gregg, Amber Hewett, Christopher Hilke, Nicole Holstein, Tara Losoff, Jim Lyon, Todd Martin, Jen Mihills, Eric Orff, Vanessa Peña, Ed Perry, Joshua Saks, Taj Schottland, Bruce Stein, and Ron Warnken.

This report was made possible by the many donors and supporters of the National Wildlife Federation.

Suggested citation: Anderson, L., P. Glick, S. Heyck-Williams, and J. Murphy. 2016. Changing Tides: How Sea-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and Recreation Economies along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard. National Wildlife Federation: Washington, DC.

Cover image: Loggerhead sea turtle. Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission.

national wildlife federation1990 K Street nwwashington, dc 20006www.nwf.org

Changing Tides: hOW sea-LeveL Rise haRms WiLdLife and ReCReaTiOn eCOnOmies aLOng The U.s. easTeRn seabOaRd ii

taBle of contentS

execUtive SUmmaRy.................................................................... 1

intRodUction............................................................................. 4

EffEcts of sEa-lEvEl RisE on amERica’s East coast .................. 5

State impactS: tHe coSt of RiSinG SeaS in tHe SoUtHeaSt, mid-atlantic, and noRtHeaSt...................................................... 7

Southeast Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Florida: The Everglades and Florida Keys . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Georgia: Sapelo Island and Blackbeard National Wildlife Refuge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

South Carolina: Santee Delta and Santee Coastal Reserve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

North Carolina: Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge and the Outer Banks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Mid-Atlantic Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Virginia: Chesapeake Bay and the Back Bay Island National Wildlife Refuge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Maryland: Assateague Island and Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Delaware: Prime Hook National Wildlife Refuge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Pennsylvania: John Heinz National Wildlife Refuge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

New Jersey: Delaware Bay and Egg Island Wildlife Management Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

New York: Gateway National Recreation Area and Jamaica Bay . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Northeast Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Connecticut: Long Island Sound and Barn Island Wildlife Management Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Rhode Island: Ninigret Pond and Ninigret National Wildlife Refuge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

Massachusetts: Plum Island and the Great Marsh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

New Hampshire: Hampton-Seabrook Estuary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

Maine: Acadia National Park . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

taKinG action............................................................................. 25Policy Recommendations: Two Pillars for Climate Action . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

endnoteS................................................................................... 29

Changing Tides: hOW sea-LeveL Rise haRms WiLdLife and ReCReaTiOn eCOnOmies aLOng The U.s. easTeRn seabOaRd1

tates along the Eastern Seaboard are already feeling the impacts of climate change. Climate change, which is caused by the atmospheric build-up of heat-trapping greenhouse gases (GHGs) from fossil fuel combustion and other human activities, contributes to higher ocean temperatures (which in turn have been linked to increased intensity and frequency of hurricanes) and sea-level rise. As such, our coasts and communities, even ones inland, are facing growing challenges from erosion, saltwater intrusion, and floods. These impacts have far reaching consequences for both natural and human communities along the coast from Miami to Maine.

Coasts are critical to wildlife and people. Communities across the region depend on coastal beaches, bays, and islands for a wide array of benefits. These unique ecosystems provide crucial habitat for wildlife such

as fish and waterfowl and support robust tourism and recreation economies. They also serve as natural buffers against potentially damaging storms and, increasingly, against rising sea levels.

As GHG emissions have increased over the last century, warming seawater has expanded, glaciers have melted, and the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have begun to weaken and break off into the ocean. This has led to an 8 inch rise in global average sea level over the past century. As global temperatures continue to increase, further sea-level rise is inevitable. Exactly how much and how fast sea-level rise will occur in the decades to come is difficult to determine, as it depends on how much global GHG emissions will increase and how glaciers and ice sheets will react to rising temperatures. What is clear, however, is that the more GHG emissions continue to increase, the higher sea level will climb.

execUtive SUmmaRy

SRoyal terns. Photo: Rachel Kramer.

Changing Tides: hOW sea-LeveL Rise haRms WiLdLife and ReCReaTiOn eCOnOmies aLOng The U.s. easTeRn seabOaRd 2

the near future, by taking actions to resist impacts and improve coastal resilience—a strategy referred to as adaptation. In the wake of increasingly dire projections for sea-level rise, however, it is equally essential that we prevent the worst outcomes by significantly reducing the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions—a strategy known as mitigation.

To protect our communities and natural resources, we should swiftly implement a two-pronged strategy of mitigation and adaptation: 1) dramatically reduce our GHG emissions to slow and eventually stop the impacts of climate change, and 2) proactively prepare for impacts that cannot be avoided.

Americans are eager for answers. At the start of 2016, 70% of Americans believed that climate change was occurring.8 As people increasingly experience the negative consequences of carbon pollution, the need for action becomes clearer.

Projections for sea-level rise give reasons for concern. According to the 2014 U.S. National Climate Assessment, global average sea level is estimated to rise another one to four feet by the end of this century, with some areas seeing even greater increases due to localized factors such as land subsidence.1

Even at the lower end of sea-level rise projections, the impacts on wildlife habitats and human communities could be devastating. And yet, recent science suggests that the higher-range scenario underestimates the amount of sea-level rise we could experience. In this scenario, sea levels are projected to rise by 6.6 feet by 2100 if drastic emission cuts are not made soon.2 Totals could reach well over that amount within a few centuries if the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets melt significantly. Recent evidence suggests this scenario is increasingly likely if GHG emissions continue to rise.3,4 Consider that under a 6.6 foot sea-level rise scenario alone, large areas of coastal cities, including parts of Boston, Atlantic City, Charleston, Virginia Beach, and Miami, would be under water.

In addition to sea-level rise, climate change presents another risk to our coasts: more intense and damaging storms. An increase in the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes since the early 1980s has been linked, in part, to warmer surface water temperatures.5 While projections for the future are somewhat uncertain, studies suggest that in the coming decades the number of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) storms will increase and that the amount of rainfall associated with hurricanes will be greater. Sea-level rise is exacerbating the impacts of storm surges— by allowing the incoming domes of water to reach farther inland—a trend that is expected to continue.6 By mid-century, certain areas could experience “100-year” flooding events (i.e., that have a 1% annual chance of occurring) more frequently—even annually—because higher sea levels make them more likely to occur. 7

As the risks from sea-level rise continue to grow, so, too, has the impetus for states and communities to prepare for changes that are occurring, or will occur in Cormorant. Photo: Candy Childrey.


This report demonstrates the risks to wildlife, recreation, and local economies of sea-level rise by illustrating key impacts in 15 eastern U.S. states: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. It then lays out policy solutions to both mitigate the threat of, and adapt to, a changing climate. Specifically the report recommends:

Policymakers on the federal, state and local levels can and should reduce carbon emissions by enacting policies that speed the transition from carbon-intensive fossil fuel extraction, development and combustion to clean renewable energy sources, and by incorporating carbon storage incentives and requirements into forestry and land use decisions. In light of the growing evidence that human-induced climate change is already altering our landscape and natural resources, America must become far more diligent in its effort to craft meaningful and efficient solutions.

mitigation

• Set a carbon price to achieve economy-wide emission reductions• implement the clean power plan to transition to a clean energy economy• expand wildlife-friendly renewable energy such as responsibly developed wind and solar• limit methane waste from oil and gas development • Reduce and better account for carbon impacts of fossil fuel development• Support clean transportation such as low-emission vehicles and public transit• enhance ecosystem carbon storage and sequestration

adaptation

• assess coastal climate risks and craft plans to reduce those risks• curb development that degrades the resilience of coastal ecosystems• improve opportunities for habitat migration• Reform coastal permitting policies to encourage natural infrastructure• Reform the national flood insurance program to stop encouraging development in risky areas• Ensure adaptation policies benefit all members of society, including those most vulnerable

Horned grebe pair. Photo: Ken Conger.


Even under the low-end sea level projections, which assumes, optimistically, that the world will achieve significant near-term reductions in GHG emissions, coastal communities will face significant impacts. Yet there is compelling evidence that even the high-end projections, which assume a continued increase in global emissions, likely underestimate potential sea-level rise.12 For example, research shows that, under a 4°C (7.2°F) increase in global average temperature, accelerating ice loss on Greenland and Antarctica would contribute to possibly hundreds of feet of sea-level rise within a matter of just a few centuries.13,14

What’s more, sea-level rise is not uniform along the nation’s coastlines. A number of factors, including variability in ocean currents and vertical land movement, can affect relative sea level changes at regional and local scales. In many places along the East Coast, for example, land subsidence due to soil compaction and activities such as groundwater extraction mean that actual sea-level rise will be greater than the global average and, thus, will have more significant impacts.

he East Coast is fortunate to have a tremendous diversity of tidal waterways, wetlands, barrier islands, and other coastal habitats, which support a wide variety of fish and wildlife species and enhance the economies and quality of life of nearby communities. Each year, beach visitation, recreational fishing, and wildlife viewing activities alone contribute tens of billions of dollars to East Coast states.9

These ecosystems also have natural abilities to adapt to the dynamic conditions along eastern shorelines. Barrier islands naturally shift and reform after storms, and tidal marshland has an extraordinary ability to adapt to changes in inundation and salinity from saltwater intrusion. However, these remarkable capacities are being overwhelmed by sea-level rise, particularly where such habitats have already been damaged by development, coastal armoring (developing physical barriers such as sea walls), and other activities.

The extraction, development, and combustion of fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, and natural gas are the primary forces driving human-caused climate change. For America’s coastal communities, accelerating sea-level rise due to the expansion of warming ocean water and melting glaciers and ice sheets is among the most direct and certain consequences of climate change. The average global sea level rose about 8 inches over the past century, and since the early 1990s the rate of sea-level rise has been accelerating.10 As global temperatures continue to increase, further sea-level rise is inevitable.

Recent scenarios developed for the 2014 U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA) suggest that sea-level rise will range from an additional 8 inches (over 1992 levels) to 6.6 feet by the end of the century, with a mid-range estimate of 1-4 feet.11

intRodUction

T

this graph depicts annual absolute sea level change averaged over the entire Earth’s ocean surface. the tidal gauges measure relative sea level along the coast and satellite images examine absolute sea level change over the entire ocean. Source: epa, climate change indicators in the United States.

Global Average Absolute Sea Level Change: 1880 - 2014


stands to lose the most in financial assets of any coastal city—$3.5 trillion. New York City is ranked third, after the coastal city of Guangzhou in China.15 While “mega cities” like New York and Miami have the most economic assets at risk, poorer areas along the coast have less ability to adapt to or escape the impacts of sea-level rise and extreme weather events. This means they, too, are highly vulnerable to impacts of climate change, which threatens important values such as social and cultural cohesion. The populations of coastal communities are also expected to increase in the future, placing more people in danger and adding risk to socio-economic systems.

2) Saltwater intrusion into the freshwater that supplies communities and wildlife: Sea-level rise will impact the fresh water table along the coast as salt water seeps into freshwater aquifers.

here are numerous impacts from sea-level rise along the East Coast. In this report, we focus on nine ways in which sea-level rise is predicted to affect key East Coast natural systems that are vital for wildlife, recreation economies, and local communities.

nine impactS of Sea-level RiSe on natURal SyStemS and commUnitieS:

1) Increased coastal flooding: Many cities along the Eastern Seaboard of the United States face increasing risk of coastal flooding. Based on a global analysis that ranks cities for exposure of vulnerable assets to coastal flooding in 2070 (due to both climate change and other socio-economic factors), Miami

effectS of Sea-level RiSe on amERica’s East coast

NINE IMPACTS OF SEA-LEVEL RISE

INCREASEDCOASTAL FLOODING

SALTWATERINTRUSION

BEACHEROSION

LOSS OFWETLAND BUFFER ZONES

GREATERDAMAGE

FROM WEATHEREVENTS

LOSS OFPROPERTY

VALUES

LOSS OFHUNTING AND

FISHINGOPPORTUNITY

LOSS OFOUTDOOR

RECREATIONINCOME

CULTURALIMPACTS

T


6) Loss of property values: Local governments rely on property tax revenue that comes from seaside homes and businesses. As sea levels continue to rise, both property values and business opportunities in many areas are likely to decline. At least $1.4 trillion worth of property in the United States is within one eighth of a mile from the coast,25 and storm surge from hurricanes can travel miles inland.26 In some parts of low-lying Florida, every foot of sea-level rise will result in the shoreline moving inland 500 to 2,000 feet.27

7) Loss of hunting and fishing opportunities: As the seas warm from rising global temperatures, some marine species are moving north toward cooler ocean waters. This shift in distribution leads to disruption in coastal ecosystems as prey and predator species become separated.28 This effect will be compounded by sea-level rise as it alters coastal ecosystems. Juvenile species that depend on coastal tidal marshes for their development will lose habitat from inundation. The multi-billion dollar fishing industry will be impacted, disturbing the coastal communities that depend on reliable fishing as a food source or economic engine. Hunting opportunities—such as for waterfowl—may also be impacted by habitat changes to coastal wetlands and disruption of food sources.29

8) Loss of wildlife, natural places, and outdoor recreation income: Other species like shore birds and sea turtles, a tourist draw in many areas, could face altered ecosystems and habitat loss as the oceans warm and sea level increases. The economic value of coastal recreation in the United States is between $20 billion and $60 billion annually for beach-going, angling, birdwatching, and snorkeling/diving.30

9) Cultural impacts: In the case of local communities that depend on coastal ecosystems for subsistence fishing and farming, sea-level rise could dramatically change their way of life. For example, the Seminole Tribe of South Florida depends on a healthy Everglades ecosystem to preserve their cultural heritage.31

Contaminated aquifers can pollute the freshwater needed for agriculture and drinking water. This change in salinity will also harm, and result in the loss of, coastal habitats such as tidal freshwater marsh.16 In addition, saltwater intrusion can damage infrastructure such as irrigation, wastewater and drinking water treatment facilities, and septic tanks.

3) Beach erosion: Beaches provide tourist attractions and critical barriers between the ocean and coastal property. Nearly half of Florida’s beaches are designated as critically eroding, which has forced the state to replenish the beaches with millions of cubic yards of sand. According to a 2013 review, Florida has spent $393 million over the last decade on sand replacement.17 Erosion also affects many species, such as shorebirds and turtles, which rely on healthy beaches for nesting and migration.

4) Loss of wetland buffer zones: Coastal wetlands provide vital habitat for birds and fish, and also offer coastal communities flood storage (absorbing and storing flood water), storm surge buffers, erosion control, and water quality improvements.18 Land use changes, hurricanes, and sea-level rise are increasing the rate of coastal wetland loss in the U.S.19 Increased inundation from sea-level rise is overwhelming the ability of tidal marshes to adapt, resulting in damage to these ecosystems. In the Delaware region, one acre of tidal wetlands are collectively being lost every day.20

5) Greater damage from more frequent and severe extreme weather events: As the climate continues to change, extreme weather events are expected to occur more often, resulting in greater damage in areas already experiencing effects of sea-level rise. Costs associated with these weather events have increased significantly over the past decades, exacerbated by sea-level rise and other factors.21 Already, average losses caused by recent hurricane winds, land subsidence, and sea-level rise are estimated to be $14 billion per year.22 In 2005, Hurricane Katrina alone caused an estimated $134 billion in damages.23 Hurricane Sandy in 2012 caused an estimated $50 billion in damages.24


SoUtHeaSt

Florida

Out of all U.S. states, Florida is most vulnerable to sea-level rise, in large part because much of the state is at or near sea level. The Miami region has the largest amount of exposed assets and the fourth-largest population susceptible to sea-level rise in the world.32 Other areas of coastal Florida, such as Tampa Bay, also are highly vulnerable to sea-level rise. With a $60 billion beach tourism industry,33 the impacts of sea-level rise have the potential to severely harm Florida’s economy.

Coastal erosion is becoming a growing problem, with increasing demands to replace sand on eroding beaches. A recent study by the Army Corps of Engineers found that Miami-Dade County will need roughly 20 million cubic yards of sand (or the equivalent of over 10,000 football fields covered in 1 foot of sand) over the next 50 years to maintain its beaches.34 The county has used up nearly all of its offshore sand sources, and will need to find acceptable alternative sources for future projects. According to estimates in Miami-Dade County’s FY 2013-2014 Proposed Budget and Multi-Year Capital Plan, the county will need to spend more than $32 million on beach erosion and sand replacement between 2013 and 2017. Miami-Dade’s estimated beachfront property is valued at more than $14.7 billion, not including infrastructure;35 overall, $69 billion worth of property is at risk of flooding in less than 15 years in Florida.36

State impactS: tHe coSt of RiSinG SeaS in tHe SoUtHeaSt, mid-atlantic, and noRtHeaSt

FL

GA

SC

NC

VA

PA

NY

ME

NH

MA

MD DE

NJ

CTRI

Eastern seaboard states affected by rising seas


the cumulative impacts to coastal ecosystems that are already deprived of historic freshwater inflow from the Everglades. Today, efforts to restore the Everglades are among the largest restoration programs in history.

This vast watershed’s ecological communities are home to many unique plants and animals, of which 67 species are listed as threatened or endangered. As the coastal biological communities shift inland with the rising seas, the Everglades are beginning to change. Sawgrass habitat, which is intolerant of salt water, is being replaced with mangrove habitat. On average, the Everglades slope upwards from the southern Florida coast by two inches per mile, so for every two inches of sea-level rise we can expect to see a mile of the Everglades altered.39 Depending on how fast sea-level rises, even mangroves may not be able to keep pace with the shifting habitat.40

As parts of the Everglades’ wetlands become flooded with rising seas, fish nursery habitat and other sheltered wildlife areas will be lost. Some species will be able to migrate northward with shifting habitat, but if seawalls are installed to protect property, these migration barriers will harm species and habitat,41 including sea turtle nesting beaches. Salt water is also beginning to seep into the freshwater aquifers that supply the Everglades, polluting the water source for seven million Floridians.

Fish and wildlife that depend on coastal habitats also are at risk. Florida, along with other states on the East Coast, is part of the Atlantic Flyway. As sea level rises, bird species could lose the habitats they rely on to rest and forage for food on their long migration. According to National Audubon Society, the horned grebe, brown-headed nuthatch, and wood stork are expected to be seriously impacted by climate change.38

The Everglades and Florida Keys

Some of Florida’s top tourist attractions, including the Everglades and Florida Keys, are threatened by sea-level rise. In the Everglades, freshwater historically flowed down from the north to meet the influx of tidal water in the unique subtropical climate of South Florida. This expansive wetland was reduced by half in the 20th century by massive ditching, diking, and wetland filling projects. Sea-level rise will exacerbate

Sea-level rise and other climate stressors have raised concerns among florida’s citizens. a June 2015 poll of florida’s 27th congressional District, including miami, found 81 percent of respondents believe climate change is a problem and 82 percent want congress to support economical ways to mitigate it.37

Bonefish. Photo: Luyen Chou.


Tidal freshwater systems are also threatened by sea-level rise. These delicate wildlife rich ecosystems depend on freshwater flow into Georgia’s estuaries and are threatened by the encroachment of salt water from sea-level rise.52 The Savannah National Wildlife Refuge, located along the Savannah River, and the mouth of the Altamaha River, are two areas where changes in salinity are altering freshwater habitats, exacerbated by dredging projects.53 Vegetation is dying at an accelerated pace as salt water intrudes, increasing the likelihood that underlying sediment will degrade and dissolve, further speeding the influx of salt water into freshwater habitat.54

Florida is also known as the fishing capitol of the world, and many prized fish species rely on the habitats provided by the Florida Keys. Florida is the number one destination in the U.S. for saltwater anglers (with 2.4 million state visits annually). Saltwater recreational fishing brought in $7.6 billion and supported 109,341 jobs as of 2014.42 As the climate continues to change, this Florida tradition will be impacted. The bonefish, tarpon, and permits that support recreational fishing in the Florida Keys generate an estimated $427 million annually,43 but the subtropical and tropical flats upon which these fish species depend are threatened by sea-level rise.44 Seagrass beds and mangroves are essential habitat for juveniles of several grouper species (including gags), which take a relatively long time to mature. As sea-level rise damages these delicate ecosystems, fish stock could fall and anglers may not be able to share the same fishing experiences with their children and grandchildren.

Georgia

Since 1935, the sea-level gauge in Savannah has measured a 9-inch

average increase.45 Approximately 675 square miles along the Georgia coast are located below 4.9 feet in elevation46—much

of which is within the National Climate Assessment’s range of projected sea-level rise by 2100. Chatham County alone, which contains the city of Savannah, lies mostly below the 3-foot sea-level rise projected. The county has approximately 6,100 homes and $2.1-billion worth of property at risk.47

Georgia’s economy is heavily dependent on tourism, real estate, and the fishing industry. According to a 1997 review by the Georgia Department of Industry, tourism in coastal counties generated $1.9 billion in revenue.48 Georgia contains nearly one third of the existing tidal saltmarshes along the East Coast of the U.S.—nearly 400,000 acres.49 Many species that the fishing industry depends on, including shrimp, blue crab, and oysters, rely on the coastal salt marshes that are threatened by sea-level rise.50 Unfortunately, the state’s salt marshes are projected to decline by up to 45% by 2100.51

American oystercatcher. Photo: Hal and Kirsten Snyder.


In 2008, South Carolina’s natural resources contributed nearly $30 billion in revenue and 230,000 jobs to the state’s economy. The state’s beaches alone generate approximately $3.5 billion annually and support 81,000 jobs.62 Outdoor activities, including fishing, hunting and wildlife viewing, contribute $2.2 billion annually to South Carolina’s economy and support nearly 59,000 jobs. Many of these valuable sources of revenue are threatened by sea-level rise and its associated impacts.63

Santee Delta and Santee Coastal Reserve

Santee Delta has more than 20 square miles of interconnected rivers, streams, and marshes. This web of waterways makes up the largest delta on the state’s eastern coast.64 The nearly 24,000 acres of the Santee Coastal Reserves offer important habitat for migrating birds and other wildlife. The reserve supports many outdoor activities, including hiking, birding, fishing, and hunting. Changing salinity from sea-level rise has resulted in altered vegetation, which in turn impacts duck populations and local duck hunting.

Sapelo Island and Blackbeard Island National Wildlife Refuge

Sapelo Island—considered by some to be the birthplace of coastal ecology—is a low lying barrier island located approximately 50 miles south of Savannah in the Duplin River estuary. Sapelo Island and Blackbeard Refuge form Georgia’s characteristic coastline—low lying barrier islands with an eastern facing beach, dunes with some elevated forested land, and salt marshes on the western side of the island. These systems create a critical storm buffer for the mainland.55

Sapelo is part of the National Estuarine Research Reserve System, which includes 27 reserves in 22 coastal states. The northern half of Sapelo Island is comprised of the 5,618-acre Blackbeard National Wildlife Refuge, which provides wildlife habitat, including maritime forest, salt marsh, freshwater marsh, and beach habitat. The island offers nesting habitat for the loggerhead sea turtle and a variety of shorebirds, including the American oystercatcher and piping plover.56 Sea-level rise worsens coastal erosion and flooding57 in these areas.

Sapelo Island, only accessible by boat and plane, is also home to the Hog Hammock community, a Gullah-Geechee settlement retaining West African traditions and speaking a creole dialect. The community has a long history with the land, including agriculture and oyster harvesting.58 According to current sea-level rise projections, this community will be almost entirely inundated by the end of the century.59,60

South Carolina

In South Carolina, nearly 700,000 people live in the Charleston area alone. It is a busy seaport ranked eighth in the nation for value of cargo handled and it is a popular tourist destination known for its beautiful beaches. However, nearly $150 billion of property is threatened61 by sea-level rise in this picturesque coastal community.

Blue crab. Photo: Sally Wyatt.


North Carolina

North Carolina is severely threatened by sea-level rise and storm surge, with projected regional s rising approximately twice the global average due to a host of factors, including groundwater depletion, sediment compaction, and regional variations in ocean currents.

There are between 3.1 and 3.9 million acres of wetlands in coastal North Carolina66 and approximately 2.5 million acres of estuarine waters. North Carolina’s network of coastal waterways is the largest lagoon on the East Coast and the second largest tract of estuarine habitat in the U.S.67 As sea levels rise, changing water levels and salinity will impact these coastal ecosystems. These areas are needed to shelter juvenile species of game fish and provide habitat for migrating bird species.

The value of property at risk to sea-level rise in just four of North Carolina’s counties over the next 75 years is $6.9 billion. The lost recreation value of climate change-induced sea-level rise to local beach goers is projected to be $93 million a year by 2030 and $223 million a year by 2080 for the southern North Carolina beaches.68 Sea-level rise will also affect coastal infrastructure. According to the National

Sand dunes, beaches, and small barrier islands, like those found in Santee Delta, provide critical habitat for migrating sea birds and the endangered loggerhead sea turtle. Many of these small islands and coastal habitats are bordered and protected by tidal marshes.

The tidal marshes in Santee Delta provide vital habitat to juvenile species that replenish fishery stock, including shrimp, blue crab, and flounder. In addition to this, the marshes shelter the smaller prey species that large game fish depend on. As seas rise and more extreme weather events occur, these critical ecosystems will continue to be damaged and marine species will suffer as a consequence.

Wintering waterfowl depend on habitat in South Carolina’s tidal wetlands, as does the state’s hunting industry. Rising sea level and changes in salinity could damage this critical habitat, and as ecosystems shift inland to adapt to these changes, they could encounter development barriers (coastal communities) in many cases.65

Similar impacts are occurring in other critically important coastal habitat conservation areas up and down the coast of South Carolina, including ACE Basin, North Inlet/Winya Bay System, and Waccamaw River National Wildlife Refuge.

Red wolf. Photo: Christine Majul.


and eroded by rising seas, residents will pay the price.72 In 2014, the Outer Banks contributed $21.3 billion from visitor spending to North Carolina’s economy. In addition to this, the island chain contributed 200,000 jobs, $1.5 billion in federal tax revenue, $1 billion in state tax revenue, and $636 million in local tax revenue.73 The islands are also important stopover areas for nesting and migratory birds (including the eastern painted bunting), and iconic endangered species like loggerhead sea turtles, which spend considerable time in shallow coastal estuaries.

mid-atlantic ReGion

Virginia

Many of Virginia’s coastal communities are highly vulnerable to sea-level rise. The Hampton Roads area, for instance, home to a number of military facilities, is one of the most at-risk population centers in the United States. Measurements of sea level at Sewells Point, Norfolk, show that water levels over the past 80 years have risen 14.5 inches, significantly higher than the global average.74 This dramatic difference is in part due to gradual subsidence of coastal land in Virginia, which exacerbates localized sea-level rise.

Sea-level rise has also worsened the impacts of coastal storms. Hurricane Isabel in 2003 caused $925 million in damages to insured properties75 in Virginia; an increase in extreme weather events will likely lead to even greater losses. Virginia Beach is the largest city in Virginia, with a population of 450,000.76 The receding shorelines threaten the resorts, hotels, and restaurants tourists flock to, and there is potential for significant economic impacts if the area continues to

Climate Assessment, “the North Carolina Department of Transportation is raising the roadbed of U.S. Highway 64 across the Albemarle-Pamlico Peninsula by four feet, which includes 18 inches to allow for higher future sea level.” This project alone is expected to cost $244 million, yet considering sea-level rise in project design is likely to reduce risks of more costly damages to the road over the long term.69

North Carolina is also ranked as one of the top recreational saltwater sportfishing states in the U.S., with $95.6 million in state and local tax revenues generated in 2013.70 Rising seas will damage the coastal habitats juvenile game fish need to mature, and the fishing industry may suffer as a consequence.

Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge and the Outer Banks

North Carolina’s Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge is home to the only remaining wild population of North American red wolves, a species once declared extinct in the wild. Unfortunately, the refuge is extremely vulnerable to sea-level rise and may be lost entirely, with the majority of the land lying only a foot above sea level.71 Not only is sea-level rise threatening the refuge, but in the event of a hurricane the chances of parts of it washing away are high. As salt water continues to creep inland, pine forest will die off to be replaced with low-lying shrubs, which in turn will be replaced with saltwater marshes, which may then be washed away into open water. This loss of habitat poses a serious threat to the red wolf population and other wildlife that call the refuge home.

Coastal ecosystems like this may be able to retreat inland from the rising tides, but human development such as roads or seawalls may hinder this ability. Removing these barriers and building natural buffers, like oyster beds, may help reduce impacts on these vulnerable ecosystems.

In view of the refuge are North Carolina’s Outer Banks. The people who live on these islands depend on revenue from tourism, and as the beaches, estuaries, and lagoons that these islands protect are inundated

From a poll conducted by the University of Virginia, 86 percent of Virginia Beach residents said that sea-level rise is a very important issue.


Oysters, blue crab, and striped bass are among the Bay’s most important resources.79 A 2008 study of sea-level rise impacts on coastal habitats in the Chesapeake Bay suggests that under a 27-inch rise in sea level, a scenario that is in the mid-range of what is projected to occur before the end of the century, much of Virginia’s Chesapeake Bay wetland habitat would decline.80,81

At the south end of the Bay, the 9,120-acre Back Bay Island National Wildlife Refuge provides outdoor recreation opportunities for the city of Virginia Beach, one of the biggest resort cities on the East Coast.

The Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain Bird Conservation Plan identifies the American black duck, king rail, least bittern, and seaside sparrow as high priority species in the refuge. Because of the refuge’s position along the East Coast, both southern and northern species overlap to result in high biodiversity, and over 350 species of birds have been observed in the refuge.82 In addition to this, the refuge has over five miles of beach that loggerhead sea turtles use as nesting habitat at the northernmost limit of their range.

experience sea-level rise. From a poll conducted by the University of Virginia, 86 percent of Virginia Beach residents said that sea-level rise is a very important issue.77

Chesapeake Bay and the Back Bay Island National Wildlife Refuge

The Chesapeake Bay has already experienced rising seas, warmer water temperatures, and longer periods of extreme weather.78 Over the last 100 years water level in the bay has risen by nearly a foot, which is greater than the global average due to the relatively high rate of land subsidence in the region. Much of the Chesapeake Bay region will continue to face higher-than average sea-level rise in the coming decades.

Many of the bay’s coastal habitats are at risk from the impacts of sea-level rise, as is the region’s natural resource-based economy. Over 500 million pounds of seafood come from the Bay every year. In Maryland and Virginia this drives $3.39 billion in sales, $890 million in income, and almost 34,000 jobs in the local economy.

Piping plover and chicks. Photo: Kaiti Titherington/USFWS.


the greatest density of breeding bald eagles north of Florida. In addition to this, the Delmarva fox squirrel, which was recently removed from the endangered species list, has a substantial population in the forested regions of the refuge.87

According to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Blackwater already has lost nearly 5,000 acres of wetland to rising seas. The refuge’s marshland provides critical spawning habitat for migratory fish and commercial shellfish.88 Situated along the Atlantic Flyway, Blackwater provides an important resting ground for migrating birds. In addition to this, marsh species like the saltmarsh sparrow, seaside sparrow, clapper rail, and black rail depend on Blackwater. The economic value of Blackwater, based on ecosystem services, is nearly

Maryland

Maryland is known for its 3,100 miles of tidally-influenced shoreline along the Atlantic coast and Chesapeake Bay. Taking localized factors such as land subsidence into consideration, the rate of sea-level rise in the region is expected to be greater than the global average.83 Under a scenario of three feet of sea-level rise, which is consistent with mid-range projections for the middle to the end of the century, most of Maryland’s tidal wetlands could be lost and over 200 square miles of the state’s land could be inundated with seawater.84

Maryland’s coastal bays and the surrounding communities support a population of 40,000 residents and attract millions of visitors every year. The waterfront property value around Maryland’s bays is valued at $360 million. In addition, wildlife viewing is valued at $45 million annually at non-market values and fishing and shellfishing are valued at $3.3 million.85

Assateague Island and Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge

Along the Chesapeake Bay, the 27,000-acre Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge protects more than one third of Maryland’s tidal wetlands. These wetlands provide a critical buffer for inland communities, including the town of Cambridge.86 Blackwater has been designated internationally as an Important Bird Area containing

Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge. (Dark gray/green represents water.) Credit: USFWS.

Bald eagle fishing in the Blackwater River. Photo: Joseph Glitter.


causes them to constantly shift, and in the case of Assateague, it means the island is moving slowly towards the coast and southward. Unlike other barrier islands in Florida and New Jersey, Assateague has little infrastructure and managers have chosen to work with the shifting sands instead of attempting to keep the island in its current place. As one of the first national park units to account for climate change and sea-level rise in its management plans, Assateague offers an example of how the natural processes of shifting barrier islands can be utilized to improve resilience.92

$390 million,89 making it an important component of Maryland’s economy. As sea-level rises, this wildlife refuge is placed at risk.

In addition to the Chesapeake Bay and Blackwater Refuge, Maryland also boasts Assateague Island, a island with over 37 miles of beaches.90 This island draws in 2 million tourists annually, which many local towns rely on as a source of revenue.91 The island is famous for its wild horses and “ghost forests,” stands of drowned pine trees. The nature of barrier islands

Seaside sparrow. Photo: Matt Tillett.


Prime Hook National Wildlife Refuge

Prime Hook National Wildlife Refuge, a part of Delaware’s extensive wetland habitat, is highly vulnerable to sea-level rise and more intense coastal storms. Prime Hook was severely damaged during Hurricane Sandy in 2012 when the storm widened a passage in the wildlife refuge’s protective dune system. Prior to restoration efforts, the 4,000-acre network of marshland had slowly been transformed into open water and the protective beach had receded by about 500 feet.100 When Hurricane Sandy hit the refuge the protective beach was breached in multiple places, flooding the marshes and communities around the refuge. Farm land was also flooded with salt water, damaging valuable agricultural land.101

To improve the resilience of Prime Hook National Wildlife Refuge, the Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013, through the Department of the Interior, awarded $39.8 million102 to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. This effort aims to restore beaches and dunes, improving coastal resilience along the Delaware Bay and providing critical habitat for federally listed species like the red knot and piping plover.

Delaware

Delaware has 381 miles of shoreline, much of it around Delaware Bay. As a state with the lowest mean elevation in the nation,93 Delaware’s shoreline and the associated beaches and coastal wetlands are particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise.94 Unfortunately, Delaware’s famous beaches are eroding at a rate of nearly 3.3 feet annually.95 A recent climate change vulnerability assessment for the state suggests that, under a potential sea-level rise scenario of 4.9 feet, the state could lose 11% of its current land area.96 Along the shore of the Delaware Bay, beaches are eroding at a staggering rate of nearly 33 feet per year.97 As coastal beaches and dunes are eroded, Delaware’s wetland habitat loses critical protection from rising water and storm surges.

According to a 2010 study by the University of Delaware, the Delaware Estuary contributes over $10 billion in annual revenue to surrounding states from economic activity related to recreation, water quality and supply, hunting and fishing, forests, agriculture, and parks. Within the state of Delaware, employment from the estuary, both direct and indirect, supports over 10,500 jobs.98

Credit: USFWS.

a 2015 poll showed that 79 percent of delaware residents say immediate action should be taken on climate and 72 percent say immediate action should be taken on sea-level rise.99

Beach between Prime Hook community and Slaughter Beach before Hurricane Sandy.

Beach between Prime Hook community and Slaughter Beach after Hurricane

Sandy on October 31, 2012.


Even Inland Ecosystems Can Be Affected by Sea-Level Rise: The Case of Pennsylvania

while pennsylvania is not a coastal state, it is still experiencing the impacts of sea-level rise. the Delaware Estuary flows into the southeast part of the state, and as sea level rises, cities and communities along delaware River tidal areas, including philadelphia, will be at risk. the U.S. national climate assessment reports that sea level in philadelphia has already risen by 1.2 feet in 100 years. one 2010 study estimates that 156,000 people in Philadelphia (or 10% of the city’s population) will be impacted by high tides within the next century as waters rise.103,104 pennsylvania will also see erosion and changes in salinity along its waterways. these changes will especially be felt in the state’s freshwater wetlands.105

John Heinz National Wildlife Refuge

as part of the Delaware River estuary, John Heinz national Wildlife Refuge offers a quiet natural area in the city of philadelphia. the 282 acres of the refuge protects the largest remaining fragment of freshwater tidal marsh in the state. while some tidal marshes may accumulate enough sediment or else shift inland to outpace rising water levels, John Heinz national wildlife Refuge is surrounded by the city of philadelphia and likely has limited ability to adapt. Salt water is also creeping closer to the refuge, jeopardizing plant, animal, and microbial communities that may not be able to adjust to changes in salinity.106

located along the atlantic flyway, the refuge provides critical resting ground for over 300 species of migratory birds. visitor recreation expenditures accounted for $1.4 million in 2011.107 State endangered species such as the least bittern and yellow-crowned night heron depend on marsh habitat in the refuge and are likely to be impacted by sea-level rise.108

Yellow-crowned night heron. Photo: James Diedrick


As sea-level rise contributes to changes in salinity, we can expect wildlife populations to decline and/or shift up river.114 These coastal environments provide critical nesting habitat for threatened and endangered bird species, and offer a much needed resting place for migrating birds. These unique birds, such as the endangered red knot, are a tourist attraction in and of themselves, and with damaged habitat, their populations will continue to decline. These ecosystems are also important for economically significant species of fish and crab; as these systems continue to degrade they will decrease the productivity of the sportfishing, shellfishing, and commercial fishing industries.

New Jersey

New Jersey’s beautiful coastal areas are responsible for approximately 70 percent of the state’s tourism revenue.109 The Jersey Shore is a tourist attraction for people from around the country and offers a huge economic benefit for the state. In 2014 New Jersey received $36.4 billion of its GDP from tourism, which also supports 508,000 jobs (10 percent of all jobs in the state). Half of this tourism spending happens at the Jersey Shore. When Hurricane Sandy hit the shore, its 127-mile stretch of beaches, boardwalks, and rental properties were badly damaged, contributing to the staggering $37 billion in total losses from the storm.110,111

Some of New Jersey’s best defenses against the impacts of severe weather come from its barrier islands, dunes, and beaches. The low-lying sandy areas create shelter from storm impacts. The islands have a natural ability to recover from storm surges as sand is pushed from the side of the island impacted by water and wind to the opposite side. This causes the islands to gradually shift, which in turn enables ecosystems to move with the islands. However, development, such as homes and roads, hampers this ability.

Delaware Bay and Egg Island Wildlife Management Area

Delaware Bay is known around the world for its oyster industry and the wildlife viewing opportunities created by horseshoe crab and migratory birds. The oyster harvest alone is projected to generate up to $80 million of annual economic benefit, while wildlife viewing contributes $25 million in benefits to the Delaware Bay area and $34 million regionally.112

In Delaware Bay, the 9,000 acre113 Egg Island Wildlife Management Area offers an extensive network of “water trails” through saltmarsh habitat filled with birds and other wildlife. Outdoor explorers can go bird watching, crabbing, and fishing in its network of tidal waterways.

Red knots and horseshoe crabs. Credit: Gregory Breese/USFWS.


Gateway National Recreation Area and Jamaica Bay

New York State has an extensive network of wetlands, including those that occur in Jamaica Bay, Staten Island, and Long Island Sound. In many cases, these wetlands have already been damaged from development and pollution, but they still provide critical ecological and economic benefits. New York’s wetlands support more biological diversity than other aquatic or terrestrial ecosystems in the state. These wetlands also buffer coastal areas from the impacts of floods and provide wildlife viewing opportunities.

The Gateway National Recreation Area includes land in New Jersey and New York—27,000 acres in total. In New York State, this land includes the Jamaica Bay National Wildlife Refuge, Staten Island, Fort Tilden, Riis Park, Floyd Bennett Field, and Canarsie Pier. Spanning 9,155 acres, Jamaica Bay National Wildlife Refuge is one of the most important bird sanctuaries in the Northeastern United States and one of the most popular places to view migrating bird species, including the endangered piping plover. Over 330 bird species and 60 butterfly species have been observed in the refuge in addition to many native reptiles and amphibians.118

New York City’s 520-mile coastline is protected in part by its surrounding wetland system, and as sea level rises, this barrier will become even more valuable.119 When Hurricane Sandy hit New York, the freshwater ponds in Jamaica Bay were breached and the refuge suffered extensive damage. Overall, Gateway suffered $180 million in damage from Hurricane Sandy. With extreme weather events occurring more frequently from climate change, and a higher storm surge expected from sea-level rise, the vulnerable marshes, recreation areas, and wildlife viewing locations in Jamaica Bay are likely to be at increased risk.

Any natural migration inland of these coastal wetland areas will be hampered by the state’s highly developed urban areas as well as the abundance of seawalls. Additional climate-driven stressors like more severe storm surge and higher tides also further impact marsh health, making coastal habitats less resilient.120

New York

New York State has over 1,850 miles of tidally-influenced shoreline. In addition to supporting human communities both small and large, New York’s coastal habitats host a diverse array of fish and wildlife species. Its wetlands and beaches offer breeding, nursery, migratory, and overwintering habitat for a range of bird species.115 In addition, New York is ranked second nationally in terms of recreational sportfishing, with $144.5 million generated in state and local tax revenue from saltwater fishing in 2013.116

Problems of sea-level rise are compounded by more intense coastal storms, posing a significant threat to the state’s people and wildlife alike. In New York State, Hurricane Sandy left 43 people dead, $19 billion in damages, and resulted in the loss of $11 billion in economic output following the destruction. Nearly a quarter of New York City was without power, while roads, tunnels, rail systems, and other transportation infrastructure required extensive repairs, some of which are still ongoing.117

Bluefish. Photo: Richard Ling.


Barn Island is popular with birders and with hunters during the fall season. The preserve has 290 acres of saltmarsh habitat, 540 acres of woodland, and open water. It supports nine state-listed species during the breeding season, including the saltmarsh sharp-tailed sparrow,128 which is declining due to sea-level rise.129 These small endangered birds nest only in salt marshes, many of which are expected to be flooded by rising sea levels.130 Barn Island was listed as a globally significant Important Bird Area in 2004. In addition to rare birds, Barn Island also shelters a sea-level fen, a rare saltmarsh habitat that is supplemented by upwelling fresh groundwater.131

The wooded areas of the island are expected to suffer from saltwater inundation, and there has already been evidence of black gum trees dying off. These forested areas are expected to be pushed inland as the low-lying saltmarshes on the island are also forced inland by rising sea levels.132

noRtHeaSt ReGion

Connecticut

Since 1960, sea level in Connecticut has risen by approximately six inches.121 In some areas along the Connecticut coast the average shoreline erosion rate is between one and three feet per year. With sea-level rise and the compounding effect of more frequent and severe storms, this rate is expected to increase.122 Hurricane Sandy caused more than 360,000 people to be evacuated from areas along the coast123 and recovery efforts cost $283 million in federal disaster assistance.124 Coastal wetlands provide a critical buffer against these impacts.

In Connecticut, coastal wetlands reduce storm damage costs by an estimated $13,000 per acre annually.125 These ecosystems are threatened by sea-level rise, but with proper management and restoration, marshes may be able to move inland. However, manmade barriers such as dykes, levies, and other storm barriers may impede this movement and result in the loss of marshland. Approximately 30 percent of Connecticut’s historic marshland has been lost to human development. Efforts to restore damaged wetlands began in the 1930’s, and today the Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection is recognized as a national leader in tidal wetland restoration. Over 1,700 acres have been restored, offering benefits for wildlife and communities up and down the coast.126

Long Island Sound and Barn Island Wildlife Management Area

At 1,320 square miles, the Long Island Sound is the region’s largest estuary, with a 600-mile coastline. Warming water temperatures, coastal erosion, and rising sea levels pose a threat to the sound’s wildlife and coastal habitat.127

The 1,013-acre Barn Island Wildlife Management Area is one of the largest and most ecologically diverse coastal wildlife management areas along the sound.

Juvenile saltmarsh sparrow. Photo: Michael Mulqueen.


Ninigret Pond and Ninigret National Wildlife Refuge

Ninigret Pond is part of a network of lagoons along Rhode Island’s southern coast. These lagoons are called salt ponds by locals, and provide fishing and other outdoor recreation opportunities. These salt ponds also support critical habitat for commercial species of fish and shellfish and offer sheltered resting places for birds migrating along the Atlantic Flyway. Salt ponds are protected by barrier beaches, but as sea level rises and storms become more frequent and severe, these beaches are being pushed inland.

The 872-acre Ninigret National Wildlife Refuge that backs up to the Ninigret salt pond is one of five refuges in Rhode Island. Ninigret Pond is the largest coastal salt pond in the state, and over 250 bird species have been recorded at the refuge, including the federally listed piping plover. The pond and adjacent wildlife refuge protect commercial species like the blue crab, bay scallop, and winter flounder.136 In addition to offering wildlife habitat, the salt marshes around the pond help filter pollutants and provide a critical buffer for coastal

Rhode Island

Rhode Island is known for its 400 miles of beautiful beaches, hiking trails, and abundant wildlife refuges. The state has nearly 2,700 homes less than 1 meter (about 3.3 feet) above current sea level, placing these properties well within the range of sea-level rise projections.133 Meanwhile, local sea gauges show that since 1929 water levels have already risen by nearly a foot, and impacts are already occurring in coastal towns like Providence. In addition, erosion rates in some areas have doubled from 1990 to 2006 and certain freshwater marshes along the coast have begun to transition to saltwater marsh.134

Meanwhile, Rhode Island has already lost 53 percent of its historic salt marshes over the last 200 years due to human alterations on the landscape. Nonetheless, by 2100, coastal habitats such as salt marshes and barrier beaches will provide natural protective benefits to $5 billion worth of Rhode Island property.135

Bay Scallop. Photo: Seascout.


level rise and increased erosion, many homes that are currently out of harm’s way will likely become prone to flooding in the future. Property taxes on the island generate $7 million annually in revenue for the towns of Newbury and Newburyport.141 As houses and property are impacted by ever increasing storms, the economies of these island communities will be strained.

Preventative measures to protect the island can be expensive. However, there are cost-effective natural solutions, such as planting dune vegetation, restoring salt marsh, and amending zoning regulations that may ultimately provide the best chance at reducing the vulnerability of this barrier island.

Plum Island is encompassed by the much larger Great Marsh of Massachusetts. It is the largest salt marsh in New England. It is made up of over 20,000 acres of salt marsh, tidal waterways, and beaches.142 The Great Marsh has been designated an Important Bird Area of international significance and provides habitat for a multitude of wildlife, including the piping plover and least tern.143 A 2015 project was awarded $2.9 million in funding to implement a suite of projects that work synergistically to increase the resiliency of the marsh ecosystem and Plum Island barrier beach and in turn reduce the vulnerability of the human communities.144 Protecting and enhancing the Great Marsh and the Plum Island barrier beach may be one of the most cost-effective tools to reducing community vulnerability.

communities and fisheries. Salt marshes provide an estimated $150 million in revenue from recreational fishing and $75 million in revenue from commercial fishing. Outdoor recreation accounts for $2.4 billion consumer spending and supports 24,000 jobs in Rhode Island.137

Massachusetts

Massachusetts has over 1,500 miles of coastline. Sea level around Boston has risen by 11 inches over that last 100 years, higher than most of the East Coast. This shift is due to both climate change and natural subsidence. Coastal land is being lost at varying rates in the state to erosion,138 with impacts being felt along much of the coastline as well as the islands of Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.

Massachusetts beaches are some of the most popular recreation resources in the state, and the coastal tourism and recreation economy supports 119,420 jobs with a total annual output of $8.7 billion.139 Activities associated with this sector include recreational boating, saltwater angling, wildlife watching, and beach visits.

Plum Island and the Great Marsh

Plum Island, along Massachusetts’ North Shore, is a barrier island known for its remarkable dune systems and beaches. At 11 miles long, Plum Island spans multiple towns. The northern third of the island consists of beaches, dunes, marsh, and some dense residential development. The southern two thirds of the island is devoted to the Parker River National Wildlife Refuge and contains a variety of coastal habitats that provide critical nesting habitat for rare and threatened species and refuge for migrating birds along the Atlantic Flyway. On Parker River National Wildlife Refuge alone over 300 species of birds have been recorded, including 75 rare species.140

Plum Island may be more stable than many of the barrier islands to the South, but winter storms can still wreak havoc on this island. A 2013 storm washed away several ocean-front homes. With anticipated sea-

Least terns. Photo: Lauri Griffin.


The estuary’s 5,000 acres of coastal marshes and tidal flats, in addition to providing the surrounding communities with a buffer for rising seas, also provide critical habitat for breeding and migratory birds.150 Designated an Important Bird Area, Hampton-Seabrook Estuary is home to endangered and threatened species such as the piping plover and common tern, and other important saltmarsh species like the willet.151 Under a potential sea-level rise scenario of 6.6 feet, only 300 acres of the current saltwater marsh in New Hampshire are expected to remain intact.152 If barriers are removed, much of the saltwater marsh will be able to move inland, but this migration may be blocked by towns and communities that line the coast.153

Fish species such as smelt, American shad, blueback herring, alewives, and winter flounder depend on New Hampshire’s estuarine waters for spawning and nursery habitat.154 In addition, shellfish species such as clams and scallops are hatched in estuaries. If sea level rises too quickly, these critical habitats will be vulnerable to flooding and erosion.

Maine

Maine’s iconic coast could see major impacts from sea-level rise. One study estimates that a 3.3-foot rise would submerge more than 20,000 acres of coastal real estate in Maine, destroying 53 miles of road.155 Sea-level rise has the potential to wash away $46.4 million of Commercial Street area properties in Portland, an estimate that could rise to $111 million by 2100.156 It would also result in damage to some of the state’s most important tourist destinations, severely impacting Maine’s $7.9 billion tourism economy.157

Ecological damage from sea-level rise could also be highly problematic for wildlife breeding habitat in sand dunes, tidal marshes, and coastal wetlands, which are used by hundreds of species. Maine’s most endangered birds like the piping plover, saltmarsh sparrow, and roseate tern are at particular risk as nesting grounds are inundated faster than new sites can be established.

New Hampshire

New Hampshire has only 131 miles of tidally-influenced coastline, the shortest of any state.145 Yet, the coast supports a diversity of habitats that are threatened by sea-level rise and the impacts of climate change. Sea-level rise, combined with coastal subsidence, has resulted in water level rising by an average 0.7 inches per year since 1990.146 These factors make the New Hampshire coastline even more vulnerable to storm surge from both Nor’easters and hurricanes. These storms can cause extensive coastal flooding, especially combined with the increased precipitation expected for the Northeast region in a changing climate. In 2012, Hurricane Sandy resulted in $55 million in private insurance claims in New Hampshire. The insured value of properties in coastal areas of New Hampshire totaled $64.0 billion in 2013.147 In 2011, Hurricane Irene caused 160,000 homes to lose power and shut down more than 250 roads.148

Hampton-Seabrook Estuary

The communities of Hampton and Seabrook are protected by beaches and coastal marsh systems. A 2012 study estimated the cost of sea-level rise for Hampton, Hampton Falls, and Seabrook to be between $1.9 and $2.8 billion.149

Common tern and chicks. Photo: USFWS.


Acadia National Park

Acadia National Park is made up of a 47,000-acre system of islands, bays, and sounds, containing ecosystems like tide pools and estuaries that support a wide variety of coastal wildlife. This unique park receives over 2 million visitors annually, making it one of the most popular parks in the United States. In 2011, the park generated $186 million for the Maine economy and supported over 3,000 jobs.158

Unfortunately, this beautiful park is at risk from sea-level rise, which will send salt water into freshwater ecosystems and change salinity, thereby damaging the habitat that wildlife depend on. Sea level at Bar Harbor has risen nearly nine inches since 1947.159 Flooding from storm surges and extreme weather events will further exacerbate all of these challenges, and the likelihood of these events will increase as the climate continues to change. With a foot of sea-level rise, a storm surge level that typically has only a ten

percent chance of occurring each year could happen every year.160 Sections of steep rocky coastline make it extremely difficult for low lying ecosystems to migrate inland with rising seas, which may means rising seas could result in a dramatic loss of habitat along the Acadia coast.

Acadia supports an amazing diversity of bird species, with 338 recorded in the park. One of the most popular families of birds, the colorful warblers, boast 22 species in the park. Visitors come from around the world to enjoy Acadia’s amazing bird diversity. However, projected changes in habitat resulting from sea-level rise and other climate change-related stressors could alter the avian community, reducing the abundance of some species and increasing the abundance of more southern species.161 Many small, bright warbler species are expected to experience population declines as a result of these disturbances. The Canada warbler, Nashville warbler, and magnolia warbler are three warbler species at greatest risk.162

Magnolia warbler. Photo: Silver Leapers.


However, aggressively moving to a low carbon future is not enough to protect vulnerable natural resources and coastal economies and communities from sea-level rise. Plus, by the time global emissions are successfully curtailed, some amount of sea-level rise will already be set in motion, threatening our shores. Meanwhile, degraded ecosystems will further limit our ability to withstand this and other climatic changes, as natural defenses are weakened or eliminated. As such, it is imperative for states and communities to pursue adaptation strategies that safeguard resources and improve coastal resilience.

What’s more, some measures can function as both climate mitigation and adaptation.163 For example, enhancing and protecting coastal habitats such as wetlands and mangroves can play an important role in reducing climate change by absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, while at the same time protecting coastal communities from sea-level rise and storm surge.

ortunately, we can protect wildlife, special places, and our communities from the worst consequences of sea-level rise. While there are numerous steps that can be taken by every household, municipality, state, or business, we recommend here a two-pronged strategy of federal policies to curb carbon pollution and enhance ecosystem and wildlife resilience to a changing climate.

First, it is critical that we put in place policies that greatly reduce the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere from industrial activities and land use changes, across every major sector of the economy. This approach—often referred to as climate mitigation—means rapidly transitioning our power, transportation, and other sectors away from reliance on carbon-intensive fossil fuels and towards cleaner, responsibly developed wind and solar energy, as well as deploying more efficient vehicles that guzzle dramatically less gasoline. It also means implementing land use, agricultural, and forestry practices that ensure our lands become storage reservoirs for, and not sources of, carbon. Many carbon-friendly approaches to land management are also good for the soil, crops, and habitat, as well as the atmosphere.

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Furthering their development necessitates, among other things, supporting tax credits to help level the playing field with subsidized fossil fuels, and improving transmission policies to ready the nation’s power grid to accommodate more renewable sources. Federal and state adoption of renewable energy portfolio standards also would drive demand. In particular, the United States has a great opportunity to develop a vast offshore wind resource that can provide clean, reliable power to coastal states when it is most needed. Efficient and environmentally responsible permitting processes and clear state offshore wind goals and policies will further create markets for this massive, underdeveloped carbon free power source. In addition, responsibly developed utility, rooftop, and community solar projects will also provide a stepping stone to a clean energy economy. When paired with energy storage technologies, distributed systems can offer communities resilience in the face of a changing climate.

• Regulate methane: Methane pollution (mostly leakage and flaring) from oil and gas production is a key source of greenhouse gas emissions, and a waste of a valuable energy resource. Methane is the second most prevalent greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide,

policy RecommendationS

1) Mitigation

• Set a carbon price: Economists and global institutions like the World Bank agree the most efficient way to speed the transition to a lower carbon economy, and to reflect the cost to communities, wildlife, and habitat of high-carbon economic activity, is through assigning a carbon price to fossil fuel-based processes and products.164 Two primary policies include a carbon tax, which would establish a specific fee—ideally at an increasing rate over time—to discourage high-carbon activities, and a cap-and-trade program, which would auction off a declining number of pollution permits over time, driving up the cost of available permits, thus incentivizing lower carbon activities. A carbon price could be constructed to drive pollution reductions throughout the economy.

• Implement the Clean Power Plan: One of the first major policies the United States established to reduce carbon emissions was the Clean Power Plan (CPP), the first-ever federal limits on carbon pollution from the power sector—until recently, our nation’s largest single source of GHG emissions. The CPP was finalized on August 3rd, 2015, and sets emission reduction requirements for individual states, giving them flexible pathways for achieving those reductions. On February 9th, 2016, the Supreme Court issued a stay of the CPP and placed a hold on federal implementation while a lower court considers a legal challenge to the rule. Meanwhile, as a result of market forces and state and regional policies, plus certain federal tax incentives, the United States is already rapidly transitioning away from coal to clean, renewable energy sources like wind and solar. The CPP will further this trend, and many states are rightfully taking steps now to implement the plan.

• Expand renewable energy: As the United States continues its transition away from harmful fossil fuels, we must responsibly develop wildlife friendly renewable energy. Wind power—both on- and offshore—and solar power provide increasingly affordable clean alternatives to fossil fuel combustion.

Saltmarsh sparrow. Photo: Matt Tillet.


until a reform process occurs. Such reforms should account for the real costs to the environment, communities, and wildlife.

• Support clean transportation: The transportation sector recently surpassed electricity generation to become the largest source of carbon pollution in the United States.166 Carbon dioxide emissions from this sector have been rising since 2013. Significant emissions benefits are possible through strengthening federal clean car standards that improve fuel efficiency and lower tailpipe carbon pollution, incentivizing public transit, and designing cities and towns to lower vehicle miles traveled. In addition to this, the United States must invest in zero-emissions vehicle technologies and batteries, and help build out needed electric vehicle infrastructure, such as charging stations.

• Enhance ecosystem carbon storage and sequestration: Today, U.S. forests, grasslands, and soils offset approximately 15 percent of all U.S. fossil fuel related emissions each year (equal to half of all transportation emissions). A significant opportunity exists to expand policy measures to increase this carbon storage capacity of our lands and forests. Measures can include: optimizing existing federal policies that could be tailored to promote

and has 80 times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide over a twenty year time period. The Environmental Protection Agency has finalized rules that will regulate methane emissions from new and modified oil and gas operations. Additionally, the Bureau of Land Management has proposed rules that will limit methane waste from new, modified, and existing sources on federal and tribal lands. These regulations are a critical step to achieving emission reductions. However, the EPA needs to regulate the thousands of existing sources throughout the oil and gas industry, a step that would have the impact of taking over 200 coal fired power plants off line.165

• Reduce and better account for carbon impacts of fossil fuel development: About 24 percent of energy-related GHG emissions can be traced to fossil fuel development on our public lands. By far, the largest sources of these emissions are coal extraction and resulting combustion. Currently, coal companies, many of which are in or facing bankruptcy due to collapsing markets, are able to get inexpensive leases through non-competitive bidding processes that fail to take into account costs, like mine reclamation and carbon pollution, that are currently being borne by the public. The Bureau of Land Management has put a halt on new coal leasing

Loggerhead sea turtle. Photo: USFWS.


processes make it cheaper and faster to install hard infrastructure, such as bulkheads, than to use softer and more natural approaches, despite the fact that hard armoring is more environmentally damaging and may eventually be overcome by rising seas. Natural and nature-based features have the capacity in some situations to keep pace with sea-level rise and to self-repair after damage from storms and floods. They also provide many co-benefits such as improved wildlife habitat, improved water quality, and recreational value that hard infrastructure does not, making these soft or hybrid “green-gray” options more cost efficient in many instances.

• Reform the National Flood Insurance Program: We should curb the use of taxpayer dollars to subsidize and promote the development and re-development of environmentally sensitive and risky places in coastal areas and floodplains. Instead, the program should move toward risk-based rates for all properties, with means-tested assistance for those who cannot afford actuarial rates.

• Ensure environmental justice: All policies should ensure that the benefits of resilience and adaptation efforts are justly distributed across society. Low income, minority, and other historically underserved populations tend to be on the front lines of the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise, and can be made even more vulnerable by poverty, linguistic isolation, and poor infrastructure.

land use for carbon storage; developing carbon-inclusive forest management principles; incentivizing forest regeneration and afforestation that is good for ecosystems and wildlife; and reducing risk of forest conversion to settlement.

2) Adaptation

• Assess climate risks and craft adaptation plans to reduce those risks: Assessing climate-related vulnerability of coastal communities and ecosystems provides a basis for developing adaptation strategies designed to reduce those risks and enhance community and ecosystem resilience. Proactive adaptation planning and hazard risk mitigation can significantly reduce the impact of hurricanes, coastal storms, and other climate-amplified weather extremes.

• Eliminate or minimize harmful development practices and other threats that fragment or degrade coastal ecosystems: Intact, healthy coastal ecosystems are our first lines of defense against rising seas. Reducing existing stressors can improve the overall health of coastal ecosystems, and improve their capacity to adapt to sea-level rise. Invasive species, nutrient runoff, stream channelization, and hard armoring of the shoreline are some of the threats that can compromise the health of coastal ecosystems.

• Improve opportunities for habitat migration: As sea levels rise, coastal ecosystems like marshes may have the natural capacity to migrate inland. Development can block this shift, creating what is known as “coastal squeeze”. This can lead to the eventual disappearance of the natural ecosystems that help protect communities and support local economies. By conserving open space and zoning appropriately, communities can manage their land in ways that can enhance the capacity for ecosystems to naturally adapt to rising seas.

• Reform coastal permitting policies: The use of natural and nature-based features, such as living shorelines, should be encouraged for coastal protection over hard infrastructure.167 Currently, permitting Razorbill. Photo: Stefan Berndtsson.


1 Melillo, J.M., T.C. Richmond, and G.W. Yohe, Eds. 2014. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program. doi:10.7930/J0Z31WJ2. http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report2 Parris, A., et al. 2012. Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the U.S. National Climate Assessment. NOAA Tech Memo OAR CPO-1. https://scenarios.globalchange.gov/sites/default/files/NOAA_SLR_r3_0.pdf 3 Rignot, E., et al. 2011. Acceleration of the contribution of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise. Geophysical Research Letters 38:5. 4 Pollard, D., and R. DeConto. 2016. Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise. Nature 531: 591-597. 5 Walsh, J., et al. 2014. Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate. In: Melillo et al. 2014: 19-67. doi:10.7930/J0KW5CXT. http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report6 Tebaldi, C., B.H. Strauss, and C.E. Zervas. 2012. Modeling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts. Environmental Research Letters 7:021001. 7 Moser, S.C., M.A. Davidson, P. Kirshen, P. Mulvaney, J.F. Murley, J.E. Neumann, L. Petes, and D. Reed. 2014. Ch. 25:Coastal Zone Development and Ecosystems. In: Melillo et al. 2014: 579-618.doi:10.7930/J0MS3QNW.8 Monmouth University. January 5, 2016. Poll: Public Says Climate Change is Real. http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/bbab2f4a-3eef-4772-9b82-8fbdd996452a.pdf 9 Pendleton, L.H. (ed.). 2010. The Economic and Market Value of Coasts and Estuaries: What’s at Stake? Restore America’s Estuaries, Arlington, VA.10 Church, J.A., and N.J. White. 2006. A 20th Century acceleration in global sea-level rise. Geophysical Research Letters 33: 1-4.11 Parris, A., et al. 2012.12 For example: Khan, S.A., et al. 2014. Sustained mass loss of the northeast Greenland ice sheet triggered by regional warming. Nature Climate Change 4: 292-299; Kopp, R.E., et al. 2016. Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1517056113. 13 Rignot, E., et al. 2011.14 Deconto, R.M., and D. Pollard. 2016. Contribution of Antarctica to past and future SLR. Nature 531: 591-597.15 Christian Aid. 2016, p. 7. Act Now or Pay Later: Protecting a billion people in climate-threatened coastal cities. http://www.christianaid.org.uk/Images/act-now-pay-later-climate-report-may-2016.pdf 16 U.S. Geological Survey. 2014. Coastal Groundwater Systems. http://wh.er.usgs.gov/slr/coastalgroundwater.html 17 Florida Families First: Governor Rick Scott’s 2013-14 State Budget. http://www.floridafirstbudget.com/content/2013-14/LoweringCostofLiving.htm 18 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service. What are coastal wetlands? http://www.habitat.noaa.gov/protection/wetlands/ 19 Dahl, E., and S.M. Stedman. 2013. Status and trends of wetlands in the coastal watersheds of the Conterminous United States 2004 to 2009. U.S. Department of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service. 46 pp.20 Partnership for the Delaware Estuary. 2012. Technical Report for the Delaware Estuary & Basin. https://s3.amazonaws.com/delawareestuary/pdf/TREB/PDE-Report-12-01_Technical%20Report%20for%20the%20Delaware%20Estuary%20and%20Basin.pdf21 Huber, D.G. and J. Gulledge, Ph.D. December 2011. Extreme Weather & Climate Change: Understanding the Link and Managing the Risk. Center for Climate and Energy Solutions: Arlington, VA. http://www.c2es.org/publications/extreme-weather-and-climate-change 22 Carter, L.M., et al. 2014: Ch. 17: Southeast and the Caribbean. In: Melillo el al. 2014: 396-417. doi:10.7930/J0N-P22CB. http://s3.amazonaws.com/nca2014/low/NCA3_Full_Report_17_Southeast_LowRes.pdf?download=1 23 Karl, T.R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson (eds.). 2009. Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. United States Global Change Research Program. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, USA. http://www.globalchange.gov/browse/reports/global-climate-change-impacts-united-states 24 Blake, E. Hurricane Sandy. 2013. National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/presentations/Sandy2012.pdf

endnoteS


25 McNeill, R., D.J. Nelson, and D. Wilson. September 4, 2014. As the seas rise, a slow-motion disaster gnaws at America’s shores. In: Water’s Edge: The crisis of rising sea levels, A Reuters Series. http://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/waters-edge-the-crisis-of-rising-sea-levels/ 26 The University of Rhode Island. Hurricanes: Science and Society. 2015. http://www.hurricanescience.org/society/impacts/stormsurge/ 27 Parker, L. February 2015. Treading Water: Florida’s bill is coming due, as the costs of climate change add up around the globe. Adaptations will buy time, but can they save Miami? National Geographic. http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2015/02/climate-change-economics/parker-text28 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Climate, Fisheries, and Protected Resources. http://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/stories/2014/03/climate_portal.html 29 Ducks Unlimited, Inc. 2007. Conserving Waterfowl and Wetlands amid Climate Change. http://www.ducks.org/media/Conservation/Climate%20Change/_documents/White%20Paper_Final%20Graphics.pdf 30 Pendleton, L.H. (ed.). 2010. 31 Seminole Tribe of Florida. http://www.semtribe.com/Culture/SeminolesandtheLand.aspx 32 Tompkins, F. and C. DeConcini. 2014. Fact Sheet: Sea-Level Rise and its Impact on Miami-Dade County. World Resources Institute. http://www.wri.org/sites/default/files/sealevelrise_miami_florida_factsheet_final.pdf33 Houston, J.R. 2013. The economic value of beaches – a 2013 update. U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center. http://www.colliergov.net/home/showdocument?id=5141934 Ousley, J.D., E. Kromhout, and M.H. Schrader. Southeast Florida Sediment Assessment and Needs Determination (SAND) Study. Army Corps of Engineers. http://www.saj.usace.army.mil/portals/44/docs/shorelinemgmt/sand_volumereport_final_stakeholder_review.pdf 35 Tompkins, F. and C. Deconcini. 2014. 36 Burleigh. N. January 28, 2016. South Florida is Sinking. Where is Marco Rubio? Newsweek. http://www.newsweek.com/2016/02/05/marco-rubio-climate-change-denier-south-florida-flood-crisis-420326.html 37 Ibid.38 National Audubon Society. 2014. The Climate Report: Florida. http://climate.audubon.org/geographical-search/florida 39 Davis, S. 2014. Everglades restoration and sea level rise. Everglades Foundation. http://www.evergladesfoundation.org/2014/06/09/everglades-restoration-and-sea-level-rise/ 40 Florida Atlantic University. 2013. Predicting Ecological Changes in the Florida Everglades under a Future Climate Scenario. http://www.ces.fau.edu/climate_change/ecology-february-2013/PECFEFCS_Report.pdf 41 Stanton, E. A., and F. Ackerman. 2007. Florida and Climate Change: The Cost of Inaction. Tufts University. http://www.broward.org/NaturalResources/ClimateChange/Documents/Florida_lr.pdf 42 Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation. 2016. The Economic Impact of Saltwater Fishing in Florida. http://myfwc.com/conservation/value/saltwater-fishing/ 43 Kryzinski, B. May 22, 2013. Florida Keys Flat Fishing: Worth More Than You Thought. Hatch Magazine. http://www.hatchmag.com/articles/florida-keys-flats-fishing-worth-more-you-thought/771667 44 Adams, A.J., and S.J. Cooke. 2015. Advancing the science and management of flats fisheries for bonefish, tarpon, and permit. Environ Biol Fish 98:2123–2131. DOI 10.1007/s10641-015-0446-9. https://appliedecology.cals.ncsu.edu/absci/wp-content/uploads/Adams-and-Cooke-2015.pdf45 Georgia Sea Grant, University of Georgia. Sea Level Rise in Georgia: Sea levels at Savannah’s Fort Pulaski have risen over nine inches since 1935. http://georgiaseagrant.uga.edu/article/sea_level_rise_in_georgia/ 46 Concannon, T., M. Hussain, D. Hudgens, and J.G. Titus. 2010. Georgia. In: Titus, J.G., Trescott, D.L., and D.E. Hudgens (editors). The Likelihood of Shore Protection along the Atlantic Coast of the United States. Volume 2: New England and the Southeast. Report to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Washington, D.C. http://risingsea.net/ERL/shore-protection-retreat-sea-level-rise-Georgia.pdf 47 Landers, M. April 20, 2016. Report: Georgia at risk from sea level rise. Savannah Morning News. http://savannahnow.com/news/2014-08-01/report-georgia-flood-risk-sea-level-rise 48 Georgia Department of Natural Resources. 2013. Living Shorelines along the Georgia Coast: A Summary Report of the First Living Shoreline projects in Georgia. Coastal Resources Division, Brunswick, GA. http://www.sapelonerr.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/LivingShorelinesAlongtheGeorgiaCoastweb.pdf 49 Sapelo Island National Estuarine Research Reserve and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Estuarine Research Reserve System. Sapelo Island National Estuarine Research Reserve Management Plan 2008-2013. http://www.sapelonerr.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/CompressedSINERR_RMP_2008.pdf


50 Georgia Sea Grant, University of Georgia. 51 Craft, C., J. Clough, J. Ehman, S. Joye, D. Park, S. Pennings, H. Guo, and M. Machmuller. 2009. Forecasting the effects of accelerated sea level rise on tidal marsh ecosystem services. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment; 7:73-78. 52 U.S. Department of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service, Southeast Region. September 2011. Savannah Coastal National Wildlife Refuges Complex Comprehensive Conservation Plan. USFWS: Atlanta, Georgia. https://www.fws.gov/southeast/planning/PDFdocuments/Savannah%20FINAL%20CCP/Savannah%20Final%20CCP.pdf 53 Seabrook, C. 2014. Tidal Marshes. New Georgia Encyclopedia. http://www.georgiaencyclopedia.org/articles/geography-environment/tidal-marshes 54 Akpan, N. September 18, 2015. Take a look inside a sea level rise time machine. PBS NewsHour. http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/coastal-ecologists-construct-time-machine-sea-level-rise/ 55 Sapelo Island National Estuarine Research Reserve and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Estuarine Research Reserve System. 56 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2015. Blackbeard Island National Wildlife Refuge, Georgia. https://www.fws.gov/refuge/Blackbeard_Island/wildlife_and_habitat.html 57 Strauss, B., C. Tebaldi, and S. Kulp. 2014. Georgia and the Surging Sea: A Vulnerability Assessment with Projections for Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Risk. Climate Central: Princeton, New Jersey. http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/uploads/ssrf/GA-Report.pdf 58 Sullivan, B. 2013. Sapelo Island Settlement and Land Ownership: An Historical Overview, 1865-1970. 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Smithsonian Magazine. http://www.smithsonianmag.com/40th-anniversary/rising-seas-endanger-wetland-wildlife-734892/?no-ist 72 McClelland, M. March-April, 2015. Slip Sliding Away: While locals on the Outer Banks tussle over whether global warming is real and causing oceans to rise, the islands themselves are gradually, inevitably going under. Audubon Magazine. https://www.audubon.org/magazine/march-april-2015/slip-sliding-away 73 North Carolina Department of Commerce. March 2016. Visit North Carolina Forecast. http://www.outerbankschamber.com/clientuploads/Economic%20Forecast%20Breakfast%20Presentations/NC%20Tourism%20Forecast%202016%20no%20video.pdf 74 Tompkins, F. and C. DeConcini. 2014. Fact Sheet: Sea-Level Rise and its Impact on Virginia. World Resources Institute. https://www.wri.org/sites/default/files/wri_factsheet_virginia_final.pdf.


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98 Kauffman, G., A. Homsey, S. Chatterson, E. McVey, and S. Mack. May 2011. Economic Value of the Delaware Estuary Watershed: The Delaware Estuary watershed is the economic engine of the Delaware Valley. Partnership for the Delaware Estuary, Inc. http://www.delawareestuary.org/pdf/NatCap/estuary_economic_value.pdf 99 University of Delaware. February 23, 2015. Climate change survey: Poll reveals 79 percent of Delawareans are convinced climate change is happening. UDaily. http://www1.udel.edu/udaily/2015/feb/climate-change-poll-022315.html 100 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. November 2012. Impacts to Prime Hook National Wildlife Refuge from Hurricane Sandy. https://www.fws.gov/uploadedFiles/HurricaneSandyImpacts_Nov_2012.pdf101 U.S. Senator Tom Carper. November 29, 2012. Hearing Statement: The Impacts of Hurricane Sandy: A Local Perspective. U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works. http://www.carper.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/mobile/otherstatements?ID=4287e545-7366-451f-b515-5b25ee389ea1 102 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2016. Prime Hook National Wildlife Refuge, Delaware. http://www.fws.gov/refuge/Prime_Hook/what_we_do/marshrestoration.html 103 Hurdle, J. October 12, 2015. Philadelphia has much to lose if drastic global carbon reductions aren’t made, study says. StateImpact: A reporting project of NPR member stations. https://stateimpact.npr.org/pennsylvania/2015/10/12/philadelphia-could-avoid-some-sea-level-rise-under-big-carbon-cuts-study-says/ 104 The Nature Conservancy, NOAA’s Office for Coastal Management, and Climate Central. The Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Web Tools Comparison Matrix. http://sealevel.climatecentral.org/matrix/PA.html?v=1105 Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission. June 2004. Sea Level Rise Impacts in the Delaware Estuary of Pennsylvania. http://www.dvrpc.org/reports/04037.pdf106 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2012. John Heinz National Wildlife Refuge at Tinicum Comprehensive Conservation Plan, Chapter 3. https://www.fws.gov/northeast/planning/John%20Heinz/pdf/FinalCCP/03w_Chapter_3_Existing_Environment(886KB).pdf107 Carver, E. and J. Caudill, Ph.D. October 2013. 108 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2015. John Heinz at Tinicum National Wildlife Refuge, Pennsylvania: Birds. https://www.fws.gov/refuge/John_Heinz/wildlife_and_habitat/birds.html 109 New Jersey Climate Adaptation Alliance (NJCAA). 2013. Stakeholder Engagement Report: Coastal Communities. Climate Change Preparedness in New Jersey. Auermuller, L. and T. MacDonald (eds.). New Brunswick, New Jersey: Rutgers University. http://njadapt.rutgers.edu/docman-lister/njcaa-meetings/85-coastal-community/file110 State of New Jersey, Governor Chris Christie. November 28, 2012. Press Release: Christie Administration Releases Total Hurricane Sandy Damage Assessment of $36.9 Billion. http://nj.gov/governor/news/news/552012/approved/20121128e.html 111 A Shore thing: A wave of people and spending is about to hit the Jersey Shore. May 30, 2015. The Economist. http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21652336-wave-people-and-spending-about-hit-jersey-shore-shore-thing 112 Delaware Riverkeeper Network. 2011. Economics of a Healthy Delaware River – Jobs and Revenue Jeopardized by Deepening. Bristol, PA. http://www.delawareriverkeeper.org/sites/default/files/resources/Factsheets/Economics%20of%20a%20healthy%20River%20put%20at%20risk%206%2011%2010.pdf113 Department of Environmental Protection, New Jersey Division of Fish and Wildlife. Egg Island Wildlife Management Area: Cumberland County - Downe Township (map). http://www.njfishandwildlife.com/pdf/wmamaps/egg_isl.pdf114 Cooper M., J.P., M.D. Beevers, and M. Oppenheimer. November 2005. Future Sea Level Rise and the New Jersey Coast: Assessing Potential Impacts and Opportunities. Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University. http://www.princeton.edu/step/people/faculty/michael-oppenheimer/recent-publications/Future-Sea-Level-Rise-and-the-New-Jersey-Coast-Assessing-Potential-Impacts-and-Opportunities.pdf 115 New York State Department of State. April 2010. Natural Resource Program. http://www.dos.ny.gov/opd/programs/pdfs/accomplishment_reports/NaturalResourcesReport_sflb.pdf 116 American Sportfishing Association. 2013.117 Cavalieri, J. and N. Wiktor. Staying Above the Waterline: The Cost and Impact of Climate Change in New York City. Fordham University. http://www.stjohns.edu/sites/default/files/documents/FaithService/staying_above_the_waterline.pdf 118 New York Harbor Parks. 2016. Jamaica Bay Wildlife Refuge: A sanctuary for birds and other species. http://www.nyharborparks.org/visit/jaba.html 119 The Nature Conservancy. August/September 2015. Joining Forces to Benefit an Urban National Wildlife Refuge. http://www.nature.org/ourinitiatives/regions/northamerica/unitedstates/newyork/new-york-newsletter-2015-augsept-115x80.pdf120 PlanNYC and the City of New York Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg. May 2012. New York City Wetlands Strategy. http://www.nyc.gov/html/planyc2030/downloads/pdf/nyc_wetlands_strategy.pdf121 Zervas, C. December 2009. Sea Level Variations of the United States, 1854-2006. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: Silver Spring, Maryland. http://www.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/Tech_rpt_53.pdf


122 State of Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection. March 13, 2009. Facing our Future: Natural Coastal Shoreline Environment Adapting to Connecticut’s Changing Climate. http://www.ct.gov/deep/lib/deep/air/climatechange/adaptation/090313_natural_coastal_environment.pdf 123 Preston, J., S. Patel, and M. Garcia. October 29, 2012. State-by-State Guide to Hurricane Sandy. The Lede (blog): The New York Times. http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/29/state-by-state-guide-to-hurricane-sandy/?_r=0#Connecticut 124 Federal Emergency Management Agency. May 6, 2013. Six Months after Sandy, Connecticut Continues to Rebuild.http://www.fema.gov/news-release/2013/05/06/six-months-after-sandy-connecticut-continues-rebuild 125 Adaptation Subcommittee to the Governor’s Steering Committee on Climate Change. 2010. The Impacts of Climate Change on Connecticut Agriculture, Infrastructure, Natural Resources and Public Health. http://www.ct.gov/deep/lib/deep/climatechange/impactsofclimatechange.pdf 126 Connecticut Conference of Municipalities. August 2014. Beach Erosion on the Connecticut Coastline: A CCM Research and Information Services Municipal Tool Kit. http://www.ccm-ct.org/sites/default/files/files/Beach_Erosion_on_CT_Coastline.pdf 127 State of Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection. March 13, 2009. 128 National Audubon Society. Connecticut, Important Bird Areas: Barn Island Wildlife Management Area. http://ct.audubon.org/conservation/barn-island-wildlife-management-area 129 Shriver, G., K.M. O’Brien, M.J. Ducey, and T.P. Hodgman. January 2016. Population abundance and trends of Saltmarsh (Ammodramus caudacutus) and Nelson’s (A. nelsoni) Sparrows: influence of sea levels and precipitation. Journal of Ornithology 157 (1): 189-200. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10336-015-1266-6 130 The Connecticut Audubon Society. December 1, 2015. Connecticut’s “Vulnerable 6” Wildlife Species at High Risk Because of Climate Change. http://www.ctaudubon.org/2015/12/connecticuts-vulnerable-6-wildlife-species-at-high-risk-because-of-climate-change/ 131 Long Island Sound Study. 2016. Barn Island. http://longislandsoundstudy.net/2012/07/barn-island/ 132 Dreyer, G., R. Rozsa, and C. Jones. March 20, 2015. Management Assessment Report Barn Island Wildlife Management Area Stonington, Connecticut. Connecticut College Arboretum. http://www.ct.gov/deep/lib/deep/wildlife/pdf_files/outreach/barnislandreport.pdf 133 University of Rhode Island Climate Change Collaborative. January 2013. Fact Sheet: Sea Level Rise in Rhode Island: Trends and Impacts. http://seagrant.gso.uri.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/climate_slr_trends.pdf 134 Goss, H. October 22, 2009. Rhode Island’s Rising Tide. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/features/rhode-islands-rising-tide 135 Sea Level Rise and the Conservation of Coastal Wetlands. Local Solutions: Northeast Climate Preparedness Conference. May 20, 2014. http://www.antiochne.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/T2Cc-Sea-Level-Rise-and-the-Conservation-of-Coastal-Wetlands.pdf 136 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2015. Ninigret National Wildlife Refuge, Rhode Island. https://www.fws.gov/refuge/Ninigret/about.html 137 Haas, M. May 6, 2016. Recreation and Climate in Coastal Salt Ponds. Rhode Island Sea Grant. http://seagrant.gso.uri.edu/recreation-climate-coastal-salt-ponds/ 138 Commonwealth of Massachusetts. 2013. State Hazard Mitigation Plan, Section 6: Coastal Erosion and Shoreline Change. http://www.mass.gov/eopss/docs/mema/resources/plans/state-hazard-mitigation-plan/section-06-coastal-erosion.pdf. 139 Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management. June 29, 2006. Report 1, An Assessment of the Coastal and Marine Economies of Massachusetts. RFR#: ENV 06 CZM 09. http://www.mass.gov/eemost pa/docs/czm/oceans/projects/econ-report1.pdf 140 Massachusetts Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs. 2016. Great Marsh. http://www.mass.gov/eea/agencies/dcr/conservation/ecology-acec/great-marsh.html141 Gurley, G. July 7, 2015. Plum Island at Risk: Storms and sea level rise pose difficult choices for North Shore community. Commonwealth Magazine. http://commonwealthmagazine.org/environment/plum-island-at-risk/ 142 The Great Marsh Coalition. The Great Marsh. http://www.greatmarsh.org/ 143 Mass Audubon. 2016. Massachusetts Important Bird Areas, Site Summary: Great Marsh. http://www.massaudubon.org/our-conservation-work/wildlife-research-conservation/statewide-bird-monitoring/massachusetts-important-bird-areas-iba/important-bird-area-sites/great-marsh144 See: Stewart, D. January 26, 2015. The Great Marsh: Nature’s Flood Insurance. How NWF and its partners are bolstering coastal Massachusetts’ best defense against natural disasters. National Wildlife Federation. https://www.nwf.org/News-and-Magazines/National-Wildlife/Animals/Archives/2015/Great-Marsh.aspx. 145 Huertas, A. July 16, 2015. How to Prepare for Sea Level Rise: Follow New Hampshire’s Lead. Union of Concerned Scientists. http://blog.ucsusa.org/aaron-huertas/how-to-prepare-for-sea-level-rise-follow-new-hampshire-806


146 New Hampshire Coastal Risks and Hazards Commission. 2014 Science and Technical Advisory Panel Report Summary. Sea-level Rise, Storm Surges, and Extreme Precipitation in Coastal New Hampshire: Analysis of Past and Projected Future Trends. http://nhblog.stormsmart.org/files/2015/05/STAP-Report-Summary-WEB.pdf 147 Insurance Information Institute. October 2015. New Hampshire Hurricane Insurance: Fact File. http://www.iii.org/article/new-hampshire-hurricane-insurance-fact-file 148 Armstrong, D. August 29, 2011. Hurricane Irene Wake: Deaths, Flooding, Blackouts State-by-State. Bloomberg. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-08-29/hurricane-irene-damage-deaths-flooding-losses-of-power-state-by-state 149 New England Environmental Finance Center, Edmund S. Muskie School of Public Service, University of Southern Maine. July 2012. Coast in Action: 2012 Projects from Maine and New Hampshire. http://efc.muskie.usm.maine.edu/docs/cre_coast_final_report.pdf 150 New Hampshire Audubon. Hampton-Seabrook Estuary. http://www.nhaudubon.org/hampton-seabrook-estuary/ 151 “NH Audubon. The Hampton-Seabrook Estuary Important Bird Area. http://nhbirdrecords.org/all-articles/Hampton-Seabrook%20Estuary%20IBA.pdf152 Rockingham Planning Commission. September 2015. From Tides to Storms: Preparing for New Hampshire’s Future Coast. Assessing Risk and Vulnerability of Coastal Communities to Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge. http://www.newcastlenh.org/Pages/NewCastleNH_Bcomm/Conservation/coast3.pdf. 153 New Hampshire Coastal Risk and Hazards Commission. March 18, 2016. Preparing New Hampshire for Projected Storm Surge, Sea-Level Rise, and Extreme Precipitation. Draft Report and Recommendations for Public Comment. http://nhcrhc.stormsmart.org/draft-for-comment/ 154 New Hampshire Fish and Game Department. http://www.wildlife.state.nh.us/fishing/species.html 155 Natural Resources Council of Maine. 2016. FAQs Regarding the Effect of Sea-Level Rise in Maine. http://www.nrcm.org/projects-hot-issues/clean-air-clean-energy/global-warming-air-pollution/effects-of-sea-level-rise-on-maine/faqs-regarding-the-effect-of-sea-level-rise-in-maine/ 156 Koenig, S. October 24, 2013. Sea-level rise will wash away $46.4 million worth of Portland’s Commercial Street properties by 2100, architects say. Bangor Daily News. http://bangordailynews.com/slideshow/sea-level-rise-will-wash-away-46-4-million-worth-of-portlands-commercial-street-properties-by-2100-architects-say/ 157 Maine Office of Tourism. 2014 Maine Tourism Highlights. http://visitmaine.com/assets/downloads/FactSheet2014.pdf 158 Cui, Y., et al. February. 2013. 159 Star, J., N. Fisichelli, A.M. Bryan, A. Babson, R. Cole-Will, and A. Miller-Rushing. October 5-6, 2015. Acadia National Park Climate Change Scenario Planning, Workshop Summary. National Park Service. https://www.nps.gov/subjects/climatechange/upload/ACAD_ScenarioPlanningWorshopSummaryFINAL_20160531.pdf 160 Ibid.161 Fiscichelli, N.A., W.B. Monahan, M.P. Peters, and S.N. Matthews. 2014. Climate Change and Birds of the Acadia National Park Region: Projected Changes in Habitat Suitability for 130 Breeding Bird Species. Natural Resources Report, National Park Service. NPS/ACAD/NRR – 2014/840. https://www.nps.gov/subjects/climatechange/upload/Fisichelli_etal_2014_Climate-change-birds-ACAD_20140912.pdf 162 Fisichelli, N.A., et al. 2014. 163 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Habitat Conservation: Coastal Blue Carbon. http://www.habitat.noaa.gov/coastalbluecarbon.html. 164 See, for example: World Bank and Ecofys. September 2015. State and Trends of Carbon Pricing. Washington, D.C. http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2015/09/21/090224b0830f0f31/2_0/Rendered/PDF/State0and0trends0of0carbon0pricing02015.pdf; and Kaufman, N., M. Obeiter, and E. Krause. January 2016. Issue Brief – Putting a Price on Carbon: Reducing Emissions. World Resources Institute: Washington, D.C. http://www.wri.org/sites/default/files/Putting_a_Price_on_Carbon_Emissions.pdf. 165 Environmental Defense Fund. 2016. Strong national policy to cut methane pollution: Solution must apply to all pollution sources, both current and future. https://www.edf.org/energy/strong-national-policy-cut-methane-pollution166 Plumer, B. June 13, 2016. Power plants are no longer America’s biggest climate problem. Transportation is. Vox Energy and Environment. http://www.vox.com/2016/6/13/11911798/emissions-electricity-versus-transportation 167 Small-Lorenz, S., B.A. Stein, K. Schrass, D.N. Holstein, and A.V. Mehta. 2016. Natural Defenses in Action: Harnessing Nature to Protect our Communities. National Wildlife Federation: Reston, Virginia. https://www.nwf.org/News-and-Magazines/Media-Center/Reports/Archive/2016/06-21-16-Natural-Defenses-in-Action.aspx

Great egret. Photo: Sandy Scott.

40 Changing Tides: hOW sea-LeveL Rise haRms WiLdLife and ReCReaTiOn eCOnOmies aLOng The U.s. easTeRn seabOaRd

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Changing Tides

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