CHANGING STRUCTURES IN THE NORTH AMERICAN PLASTICS INDUSTRY - FROM LOCAL TO GLOBAL INFLUENCES -...
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Transcript of CHANGING STRUCTURES IN THE NORTH AMERICAN PLASTICS INDUSTRY - FROM LOCAL TO GLOBAL INFLUENCES -...
CHANGING STRUCTURES IN THE NORTH
AMERICAN PLASTICS INDUSTRY - FROM LOCAL TO GLOBAL INFLUENCES -
Applied Market Information Ltd.45-47 Stokes CroftBristol, BS1 3QP, UKTel: +44 (0)117 9249442Fax: +44 (0)117 9892128Email: [email protected]
Applied Market Information LLC1210 Broadcasting Road, Suite 103
Wyomissing, PA 19610, USATel: +1 (610) 478 0800
Fax: +1 (610) 478 0900Email: [email protected]
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Western Plastics Association Slide 2
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Western Plastics Association
The programme
About Applied Market Information Where North America fits in the world The position of North American demand Downstream industries and changing structures Global Flexible Packaging markets – the PE example Consumer trends impacting plastics Retailer trends impacting plastics Conclusions
Slide 3Slide 3
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
About AMI Consulting
4
Market Analysis– In-depth multi-client reports
The NAFTA market for Thermoplastic Concentrates (March, 2012)
The Global Market for BOPP films The Global Market for Grass Yarns Studies by application e.g. Pipes,
membranes, cables Studies by polymer e.g. PP, PE
– Single client projects and reports
Market & Database products– Plastics in India– The Thermoplastic Compouding
Industry Report (NAFTA, Europe, Asia, Latin America)
– Processor & compounder databases
Conferences– Compounding World Forum – AMI Plastics Industry Seminar – Shrink and Stretch film– Thermoplastic Concentrates – Polyethylene Films – Fire Retardants in Plastics– Polymers in Cables
Other Digital magazines
– Compounding World, Injection World, Film & Sheet, Pipe & Profile
E-publishing contract services Technical publications
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
AMI has over 25 years experience in providing insight and information to the global plastics industry.
AMI has databases on over 30,000 plastic processors globally
AMI has unrivalled knowledge on down stream plastics markets
AMI Consulting
5Applied Market Information LLC
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
AMI Future Events
6Applied Market Information LLC
The international marketing, business and technical conference for the
polyethylene film industry
11-13 February 2014The Shores Resort & Spa, Daytona Beach, FL, USA
Organized by Applied Market Information LLC
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
AMI’s Digital magazines
www.filmandsheet.com www.pipeandprofile.com www.injectionworld.com
7Applied Market Information LLC
WHERE NORTH AMERICA FITS IN THE WORLD
Evolving patterns of demand
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Western Plastics Association
The trends that shape the world
Global population growth to 9.2 billion by 2050– With an increasing share living longer and requiring greater services
Urbanization as more of the population moves to cities– By 2050 65% of the world population will be city dwellers
Transport needs will mean over 2.5 billion cars are needed by 2050 The fight to access resources:
– Raw materials to drive industrial development
– The basics of life water and food– Energy and power needs will have grown by 50% from the levels of 2012
Energy efficiency and resource optimisation will be essential drivers in the globally successful economies
Slide 9Slide 9
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Western Plastics Association Slide 10
Total polymer demand by type 1983-2017
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
1983 1998 2012 2013 2017
mil
lio
n lb
sPolyethylene Polypropylene
PVC Polystyrene
Expanded Polystyrene ABS
PET Engineering polymer
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
The World 1983 and 2012
98.8 million lbs 496.9 million lbs
Slide 11Slide 11Western Plastics Association
1983 2012
Europe20%
NAFTA17%
Latin America5%Greater China
29%
Asia15%
Indian Sub Continent
5%
Africa and the Middle East
9%
Europe38%
NAFTA30%
Latin America4%
Greater China6%
Asia17%
Indian Sub Continent
1%
Africa and the Middle East
4%
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Total world demand 1983-2017
Slide 12Western Plastics Association
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
1983 1998 2012 2013 2017
mil
lio
n lb
s
Europe NAFTA
Latin America Greater China
Asia Indian Sub Continent
Africa and the Middle East
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Global polymer demand 2012
Slide 13Western Plastics Association
Polyethylene34.6%
Polypropylene24.2%
PVC16.9%
Polystyrene6.1%
Expanded Polystyrene
2.2%
ABS3.5%
PET8.7%
Engineering polymer
3.8%
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Western Plastics Association
End use applications for all polymers 2012
Slide 14Slide 14
Flexible Packaging Industrial
7%
Flexible Packaging Consumer
17%
Rigid Packaging Industrial
6%
Rigid Packaging Consumer
22%
Building20%
Agriculture2%
Automotive3%
Electrical Appliances
5%
Medical1%
Housewares3%
Toys1%
Sport and Leisure1% Furniture
1%Others
11%
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Total NAFTA demand 1983-2017
Slide 15Western Plastics Association
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1983 1998 2012 2013 2017
Mil
lio
n lb
sPolyethylenePolypropylenePVCPolystyreneExpanded PolystyreneABSPETEngineering Polymer
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Total NAFTA demand 1983-2017
Slide 16Western Plastics Association Slide 16
Units: million lbs 1983 1998 2012 2013 2017
Polyethylene 13,272 30,640 34,673 35,467 40,075
Polypropylene 3,526 13,444 15,626 16,067 18,232
PVC 6,094 13,962 13,427 13,619 14,399
Polystyrene 3,758 6,083 4,728 4,761 4,904
Expanded Polystyrene 496 937 1,358 1,395 1,492
ABS 904 1,631 1,713 1,770 1,940
PET 551 4,188 10,238 10,612 12,100
Engineering Polymer 886 2,513 4,033 4,232 4,963
Total 29,487 73,398 85,795 87,922 98,105
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Western Plastics Association
Dynamics of the NAFTA market
Highly evolved market dominated by USA economy– Mexico the faster growing area
2012 characterised by:– Acceleration of domestic demand– Profitability maintained
Evidence of renewed acquisition activity in processing industry Renewed confidence in domestic manufacturing of both resin and
plastics processing; shale gas driven Global investments continuing, driven by the desire to serve brands on a
global basis– Importance of retailers in encouraging low cost goods from around the world– Continued global investments by US companies
North American resin and additive companies continue to be at the forefront of global development
Slide 17Slide 17
Downstream industries and their changing structures
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Western Plastics Association Slide 19
The plastics industry in 2013
Plastics processing is successfully established in every region and country of the world
The impact of plastics products and goods is felt in every economy and society on the planet
The average consumer relies on and uses numerous distinct plastics products every day
Plastics drive the global economy– Building and infrastructure– Communications– Transport – Packaging of all consumer goods (rigid and flexible)– Leisure and social activities
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Western Plastics Association Slide 20
Development of the processing industry
Local production
National and regional processors
Interregional processors
Global dimension
Pre 1970’s
1970’s-1980’s
1980’s- 1990’s
2000’s-2010
In same time resin
producers exit
processing and
financial
groups
take larger
holdings
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Western Plastics Association Slide 21
Global distribution of processors 2013
Total number 196,255
Europe13.2%
NAFTA7.1%
Latin America5.9%
Greater China34.2%
Asia18.6%
Indian Sub Continent
15.4%
Africa and Middle East
5.6%
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Western Plastics Association Slide 22
Global processors by activity 2013
Total Number 196,255
Injection Moulding
61.5%Blow Moulding7.9%
Rotational Moulding
0.9%
Film14.6%
Pipe 2.6%
Profile4.7%
Cable0.9%
Sheet2.3%
Compounders2.5%
Other2.1%
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Western Plastics Association Slide 23
Processor industry structure 2013
% of polymer demand % of processor numbers
Europe13.2%
NAFTA7.1%
Latin America5.9%
Greater China34.2%
Asia18.6%
Indian Sub Continent
15.4%
Africa and Middle East
5.6%Europe20.5%
NAFTA17.3%
Latin America5.0%
Greater China28.8%
Asia14.8%
Indian Sub Continent
5.2%
Africa and the Middle
East8.5%
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Global distribution of plastic processors 2013
Slide 24Western Plastics Association
Injection Blow Rotational Polyolefin Pipe Profile Cable Sheet Thermoplastic Other Grand %
Moulding Moulding Moulding Film Extrusion Extrusion Producers Extruders Compounders Processors Total Share
Europe 16,525 1,735 321 2,099 778 1,394 477 1,046 762 690 25,827 13.2%
NAFTA 9,000 905 220 1,080 230 855 205 505 580 300 13,880 7.1%
Latin America 6,294 817 38 2,463 151 659 76 463 271 294 11,527 5.9%
Greater China 45,500 4,890 180 10,935 645 2,185 310 625 1,075 745 67,090 34.2%
Asia 17,460 4,055 355 6,705 1,165 3,190 530 1,055 995 1,080 36,590 18.6%
Indian Sub Continent 20,100 1,975 310 4,015 1,750 145 110 425 962 505 30,297 15.4%
Africa and Middle East 5,850 1,185 343 1,323 300 702 156 349 295 541 11,044 5.6%
Total 120,729 15,562 1,767 28,620 5,019 9,130 1,864 4,468 4,940 4,155 196,255 100.0%
% share of total 61.5% 7.9% 0.9% 14.6% 2.6% 4.7% 0.9% 2.3% 2.5% 2.1% 100.0%
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Industry dispersed in all countries– Strong structure in United States– Developed industry in Canada– Rapidly evolving industry in Mexico
Many companies but limited resources– The average company have limited management skills and resources
Consolidation in the last ten years – Takeovers and mergers driven by specialisation– Consolidation of the customer base– Movement of business to Asia and developing world– Future of equity owned assets uncertain
Specialization increasing Number of truly National players
– Few with truly global ties
Western Plastics Association Slide 25
The plastics industry in NAFTA
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Distribution of processors NAFTA 2013
Slide 26Western Plastics Association Slide 26
Injection Blow Rotational Polyolefin Pipe Profile Cable Sheet Plastic Other Grand %
Moulding Moulding Moulding Film Extrusion Extrusion Producers Extruders Compound Processors Total Share
United States 7,150 570 160 545 140 545 145 380 495 200 10,330 74.4
Canada 525 165 30 110 60 160 35 60 50 70 1,265 9.1
Mexico 1,325 170 30 425 30 150 25 65 35 30 2,285 16.5
GRAND TOTAL 9,000 905 220 1,080 230 855 205 505 580 300 13,880 100.0
% share of total 64.8% 6.5% 1.6% 7.8% 1.7% 6.2% 1.5% 3.6% 4.2% 2.2% 100.0%
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
The structure of the North American industry
Slide 27Western Plastics Association
Injection Molding66%Blow Molding
6%
Polyolefin Film6%
Rotational Moulding
2%
Pipe and Profile8%
Cable1%
Sheet4%
Compounders5%
Others2%
Global flexible packaging markets-the Polyethylene example-
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Western Plastics Association Slide 29
Preservation and
protection
Product Information
Consumer appeal
Supply chain efficiency
Sustainability
• Freshness and food value maintained
• Pack integrity in supply chain
• Clear brand identity• Range of colours & effects
• Stored safely with minimal space
• Identity and impact on the shelf• Differentiation on the shelf• Easy to carry and transport• Strong and Robust
• Light weight• Easy to open & reclose/seal• Easy to carry• Easy to identify for recycling• Meets packaging waste requirements
Range of retailer formats
Packer, Retailer, Consumer – meeting many needs
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Global size of market
Europe23%
NAFTA19%
Latin America7%
Greater China23%
Asia15%
Indian Sub Continent
5%
Africa & Middle East
8%
Western Plastics Association Slide 30
Total market 115 billion lbs
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Western Plastics Association Slide 31
Global distribution of PE extruders 2013
Total number of
companies 28,620
Europe7% NAFTA
4%Latin America
9%
Greater China38%
Asia23%
Indian Sub Continent
14%
Africa and Middle East
5%
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Average film producer throughput 2012
Slide 32Western Plastics Association
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00
Indian Sub Continent
Asia
Greater China
Latin America
Africa & The Middle East
Europe
NAFTA
Million lbs
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Base substrate demand – trends and comments
Western Plastics Association
PE Film market is a 84 billion lbs. market globally accounting for over half of world PE demand, future growth globally 4.5% per annum
PP Film market is a 19 billion lbs. market global market growing at over 6% per annum
Other films and plastic substrates account for over 11 billion lbs. and are growing at over 7% per annum
Strong regional focus to most markets, but with trade increasingly influencing markets
Polyethylene73%
BOPP14%
PP film3%
PET6%
Others4%
Slide 33
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Increased specialisation and focus
Materials - wide range of polymers and copolymers
Innovation in additives and modification
Extrusion - more sophisticated processing (co-extrusion)
Conversion – Improved printing (more colours
greater print definition)– Pack making (specialized shapes
and structures)– Lamination
Need to understand new materials - training and investment
Investments in co-extrusion often necessary to fully exploit palette of materials
Co-extrusion often the route to achieve downgauging and superior performance
Development of new products essential to justify investment
Western Plastics Association Slide 34
Technology Advances Impact on Extruders
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Western Plastics Association Slide 35
Key drivers of packaging growth
Environmental– Recycling
– Minimisation
Cost savings– line speed/filling speed improvement often related to sealing time
– Greater pack integrity
– Down gauging
Others– Reclosability
– Tamper evidence
– Excitement!
– Barrier properties
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Case study of the opportunity: Labels
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Pressure Sensative Glue Applied IML Sleeves and Others
Plastic Paper
Western Plastics Association Slide 36
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Case study of the opportunity: Sacks
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Europe NAFTA Asia Latin America Japan Rest of theWorld
Polyethylene Polypropylene Paper
Western Plastics Association Slide 37
Consumer trends impacting the plastics industry
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Western Plastics Association Slide 39
Profits from forecasting and understanding
Future behaviour and attitudes
Future needs
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Western Plastics Association Slide 40
How are our lives changing?
Time is money “instant
convenience”
Individual as a market
Communications age
Appealing to the young at
heart
The natural world
Healthy lifestyle choices
How are our lives changing?
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Western Plastics Association Slide 41
True value propositions
Can I offer elements of uniqueness?
Do my products contribute to the uniqueness of the brand?
Retailers and brands and their influence on market development
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Retailer brand issues/challenges
Slide 43Western Plastics Association
Shorter product life cycles
– More product variants
Environmental challenge
Rise of private label
– Walmart private label $135 billion
– Nestle is a $98 billion company
Need for brand protection
How to sell in an interactive world
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Retailers & Consumers
Slide 44Western Plastics Association
What is a brand?
Promise How does it lookAesthetic appealEnvironmental impact
Experience How does it workFunctionality
Memory What brings you back
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Western Plastics Association Slide 45
What drives innovation
Innovation
What’s Needed?
Consumer
Competition
Stakeholders
What’s Possible?
Technology
Chemistry
Materials
Processes
Business Model
Supply Chain
Summary and conclusions
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Western Plastics Association Slide 47
Observations – Market overview
The footprint and influence of plastics products are now global in scope and contribute to all areas of industry and the economy
Although we are slowly seeing a global industry emerge in many markets the extent of globalisation is limited:
– Few global standards exist
– Resin availability and its pricing remains regional
The activities of global brands, combined with modern technology, are the major factors reshaping the structure of the upper levels of the processing industry. A limited number of players are adapting to this circumstance
The demand for plastics are also developing under the influence of economic, environmental and an increasingly political/legal frameworks.
Stronger growth is occurring in the more populous developing economies of India and China. Other countries joining this group are Russia, Brazil and Indonesia.
All around the world the opportunity to replace traditional material is strong
©Applied Market Information Ltd 2013
Western Plastics Association Slide 48
Observations – industry structure
The processing industry continues to be extremely fragmented with the faster growing regions of the world seeing the number of processors advance while the more developed world is seeing a decrease in processor numbers.
Within each major region and also on a global scale the larger processors are gaining an increasing share of the overall market. This process is most advanced in the NAFTA region where a single market has existed for many years, but similar trends are observable in the other regions.
Thus in the future the industry shape will be characterised by:
– The big will get bigger, the small entrepreneurial and focused supplier will remain– The medium size processor will be challenged
“Disruption” will be the characteristic of markets to an increasing extent As larger groups improve their profitability, access to capital and strong
balance sheets, this will drive a further process of company acquisition and restructuring
Energy costs are emerging as a longer term driver of processing location
THE ENDwww.amiplastics.com
Applied Market Information Ltd.45-47 Stokes CroftBristol, BS1 3QP, UKTel: +44 (0)117 9249442Fax: +44 (0)117 9892128Email: [email protected]
Applied Market Information LLC1210 Broadcasting Road, Suite 103
Wyomissing, PA 19610, USATel: +1 (610) 478 0800
Fax: +1 (610) 478 0900Email: [email protected]
Attendees to this seminar are reminded that the contents are copyrighted and that the copyright belongs to Applied Market Information Ltd. and/or its subsidiaries. Unless otherwise agreed and confirmed by Applied Market Information Ltd. in writing, it is
forbidden to distribute the contents to any third parties or transmit it via any electronic medium forum.
Andrew Reynolds: [email protected]
Applied Market Information Ltd.AMI House, 45-47 Stokes Croft
Bristol BS1 3QP, UKTel: +44(117) 924 9442 Fax: +44(117) 989 2128
Applied Market Information LLC1210 Broadcasting Road, Suite 103
Wyomissing, PA 19610 USATel: +1(610) 478 0800 Fax: +1(610) 478 0900