Changing Nature of Rural Landscapes and Communities

John WilliamsNSW Commissioner for Natural Resources

The challenge for Australian agriculture…

• The era of cheap energy for Agriculture is over.....

• Fuels, Fertilizer, Pesticides, increasingly expensive

• The impact of Emission Trading Scheme is about to begin.....

• Increase costs of most inputs to agriculture

• The era of cheap food and fibre may be over....

• global food demand increasing-Food security.

BIODIVERSITY

LAND

AIR

WATER

Damage to Land, Water & Biodiversity

soil nutrient depletionsoil nutrient depletion

soil acidificationsoil acidification

soil structural declinesoil structural decline

soil biological declinesoil biological decline

dryland and irrigation salinizationdryland and irrigation salinization

wind and water erosionwind and water erosion

contamination with residues of contamination with residues of agricultural chemicalsagricultural chemicals

Damage to Land, Water & Biodiversity

loss of habitat and biodiversityloss of habitat and biodiversity

river processes and environmental flowsriver processes and environmental flows

nutrient, salts and pollutants to wetlands, nutrient, salts and pollutants to wetlands, rivers and water bodiesrivers and water bodies

contamination of groundwater with nutrients, contamination of groundwater with nutrients, salt and pollutantssalt and pollutants

riparian, remnant vegetation damage and rural riparian, remnant vegetation damage and rural tree declinetree decline

decline in native pastures and environmental decline in native pastures and environmental value of rangelandsvalue of rangelands

The challenge for Australian society

• To manage water, land, biodiversity which

underpin our life support systems by•Providing our ecosystems services and our ecological infrastructure

•Under Climate Change and Shift

Change in atmospheric CO2 over the last 1000 years

Based on ice core analysis, and since 1958 on direct measurements

Inset: Monthly average concentration at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.

Source: Australian Government, Bureau of Meteorology

Source: Rahmstorf et al (2007). Science 316:709.

Climate observations compared to projections

Australia is warming

Climate change is occurring and is due to human activities

atmospheric CO2

ocean

land

fossil fuel emissions

deforestation

6.3

1.6

3.2

2.22.5

2000-2005

Global Carbon Budget (1850-2005)

IPCC 2001; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS, in review; IPCC WGI 2007, unpublished comparison

CO

2 flu

x (P

g C

y-1)

Sink

Sour

ce

Time (y)

7.2

1.5

4.2

2.32.3

1980-1989

5.4

1.4

3.3

1.81.7

1990-1999

Summary of Projected Climate Changes

• Temperature to increase 3oC by 2050 and 5oC by 2070 over land areas

• Lower increases in temperature in maritime environments

• Precipitation increases in high latitudes (temperate) but a drying in mid-latitudes (sub-tropics) over Asia

• Equatorial tropical zone – uncertain but little mean change expected

• No increase in cyclone frequency but intensity could increase by 10-20%

• Accelerated melting of glaciers – 65% of China’s glaciers will not exist by 2050 with current and projected warming trends

• Sea level rise modest in IPCC projections (c. 50cm) but estimates don’t include significant ice melt over land

Suppiah et al (in prep)

Low CO2 emission scenario

Temperature change (°C)

High CO2 emission scenario

15-model average changes in temperature by 2030, relative

to 1990

April 18, 2023 16TYPE IN PRESENTATION NAME

Annual Flows In Lachlan River at Forbes

Rainfall trend (1910 to 2005)

Source: Richard Beecham, NSW Department of Natural Resources

Source: Barry Hanstrum, Bureau of Meteorology