Changing Lifestyles – Changing Marketplace The UK...

Edward GarnerCommunications Director Worldpanel

Changing Lifestyles – Changing MarketplaceThe UK Experience Sydney - September 2005

Taylor Nelson Sofres plc

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AA, Abbey National, Allied Domecq, American Express, Anheuser Busch, Audi, Barclays, Bass Brewers, Bayer, Boots, British Airways, British Gas, Britvic, BUPA, Campbells, Carlsberg Tetley, Castrol, Clerical Medical ,Coca Cola, Comet, Coors Brewers, Daimler Chrysler, Dairy Crest, Danone, DTI, Direct Line, Duracell, Eli Lilly, Eurostar, Ferrero, Gillette, Glaxo SmithKline, Granada, GLA, Greene King, Guinness, Halfords, Halifax Bank Of Scotland, HJ Heinz, Home Office, HSBC, ICI, Interbrew, ITV, Jim Beam, Johnson & Johnson, JP Morgan, Kwik-Fit, Lloyds TSB, London Stock Exchange, London Underground, L’Oreal, Marks & Spencer, Mastercard, McDonalds, McVities. Mercedes Benz, MFI, Michelin, Motorola, Nationwide, Nestle, Nissan, Nokia, Orange, Pernod Ricard, Perrier, Procter & Gamble, Reckitt Benckiser, Renault, Royal Bank Of Scotland, Sainsbury’s, Scottish Executive, Shell, Sony Ericsson, Specsavers, Standard Life, Tesco, Texaco, Thames Water, Toshiba, Toyota, Unilever, Vauxhall Motors, Virgin, Vodafone, Volkswagen, Wella, Woolworth, Xerox…

Typical clients…

Looking…behind the numbers,

beyond the trends,between the lines

Superpanel Specification

15,000 households building to 25,000 by 2007

Demographically representative sample of mainland GB households

Using purpose-built hand-held barcode scanning equipment in home

Each family member scans all purchases brought into the home, enabling Individuals’ purchasing to be analysed on relevant markets (eg toiletries and healthcare)

Non-barcoded (fresh foods) items entered via a patented code book.

Silent data retrieval overnight via telephone line/modem.

Production and delivery of data following a 4-weekly cycle.

Data Collection

Data Currency within the trade All the Major Retailers now invest in and use TNS Superpanel

As do over 400 manufacturers

Giving Superpanel a 90% share of the GB Continuous Consumer Panel Market

Agenda

Lifestyles changes

Chilled v Frozen

Chilled

Frozen

Retailer Issues

Agenda

Lifestyles changes

Chilled v Frozen

Chilled

Frozen

Retailer Issues

Cash-rich – Time-poor

In 2004 there were 7.0 million people living alone in Great Britain, nearly four times as many as in 1961.

the UK population is changing… Single person households now account for 30% of the

Population - In 2004 there were nearly four times as many people living alone as in 1961.

[Office of National Statistics]

45% of Britons surveyed agreed with the statement ‘I am so tired in the evening, I don’t have the energy to do anything’ [The Henley Centre, 2002]

23% (4 million people) work 48 hours or more per week in Britain, compared to less than 10% in the rest of the EU

[Eurostat, 1999]

Women with dependent children have recorded the biggest increase in working hours [Economic & Social Research Council]

Between 1978 and 2004 household disposable income per head(adjusted for inflation) more than doubled[Office of National Statistics]

& this is affecting how we consume60% of UK residents agree with the statement ‘I never seem to have enough time to get things done’ [Euro PCC 2001, The Henley Centre]

50% of housewives aged 17 – 24 do not cook anything from scratch [TNS FFP Complete]

51% of meal occasions now take place alone, compared to 15% 20 years ago [TNS FFP Complete]

The average meal preparation time has fallen from 60 mins in the 1980s to 19 mins in 2004 [TNS FFP Complete]

Meals are becoming lighter. 39% of evening meals are now classed as ’light’ compared to 14% 12 years ago[TNS FFP Complete]

PricePeople are willing to pay more for convenience

Providing meal solutions?

Selling Food

Meal Solutions

home alone tonight

working late again

mum & dad coming for lunch

lunchbox for the old man

kids friends after school

enjoyable snack

healthy treats

traditional favourites

midweek quickie

a light alternative

Meal Solutions

..and lifestyle changes are favouring Chilled over Frozen

Eat now (Unplanned)

TodayTop-up/Impulse ShoppingFocus on PracticalityPay for convenienceSolutionsLunchtime fixtureHandipacks/portableShopping Missions

Eat later (Planned)

TomorrowMain ShopFocus on EnjoymentValue awareHome warehousingAll occasionsLarge packs/multibuysShopping Lists

Eat now (Unplanned)

TodayTop-up/Impulse ShoppingFocus on PracticalityPay for convenienceSolutionsLunchtime fixtureHandipacks/portableShopping Missions

Chilled

Eat later (Planned)

TomorrowMain ShopFocus on EnjoymentValue awareHome warehousingAll occasionsLarge packs/multibuysShopping Lists

Frozen

…..so Chilled is outgrowing Frozen

All meals are becoming lighter

Proportion of occasion defined by the consumer as a “light meal”

Light meals Snacking Solus eating De-skilling

Family meals

Formality

Preparation

Components

…so ‘serious’ food is losing out

Light meals Snacking Solus eating De-skilling

Family meals

Formality

Preparation

Components

…so ‘serious’ food is losing out

Convenience mega trends

1994Eating alone 34.4%

Time to prepare main meal 30 mins

Snacks 16.3%

Light meals 23.3%

Homemade Foods 17.8%

2004 51.1%

19 mins

We are changing from this……

To this……

“Foods should be eating more of…”

Source: FSA Consumer Attitudes to Food Standards conducted by TNS (3121, respondents 2003)

() = % change from 2002

80Vegetables/salad

Bread/Cereals/Pasta/Rice/Potatoes

Nuts/Beans/Lentils/Chick Peas

Milk/Dairy Products

Food or Drinks containing Sugar

Foods containing Fat

“Foods should be eating more of…”

Source: FSA Consumer Attitudes to Food Standards conducted by TNS (3121, respondents 2003)

() = % change from 2002

80Vegetables/salad

Bread/Cereals/Pasta/Rice/Potatoes

Nuts/Beans/Lentils/Chick Peas

Milk/Dairy Products

Food or Drinks containing Sugar

Foods containing Fat

Agenda

Lifestyles changes

Chilled v Frozen

Chilled

Frozen

Retailer Issues

Fish Definition

TNS Frozen Fish Definition

TNS Chilled Fish Definition

Chilled Vs Frozen Fish – Expenditure £mGrowth in chilled fish continues, however frozen fish had seen modest growth in recent years

MATs to July

Chilled Vs Frozen Fish – VolumeThe spend growth seen in chilled fish is also seen in volume. However, volume in frozen has stagnated.

MATs to July

Chilled Fish 5 year trend Penetration %

5 years ago 19 million households were buying chilled fish in a year

Chilled Fish 5 year trend Penetration %

Between 2000 and 2005, 1.2 million new households started buying Chilled Fish

5 years ago 19 million households were buying chilled fish in a year

Frozen Fish Vs Chilled Fish Value %Chilled fish continues to dominate the fish category and now represents over 61% of all fish sold

Share of Spend % MATs to July

Chilled Fish vs Frozen Fish Average price per Kg

52 w/e 17 July 2005

Demographics

Chilled Fish Lifestyle Indices

Sector Share indexed on Total Fish – 52 w/e July 17 2005

Chilled Fish Lifestyle Indices

Frozen Fish Lifestyle Indices

SCRATCH COOKING

COMPONENT COOKING

READY MEALS

TAKE-AWAYSSNACKING

‘ON THE HOOF’

DELIVERY QSR RESTAURANT

High skill base, time consuming, “food”

focusedConvenient

social

Tesco FinestCafé Culture

Be Good to Yourself Blue Parrot Café

ItalianOriental

e.g. primary products, traditional grocery

e.g. prepared vegetables, prepared meat/fish,

sauces, pizza

e.g. Sandwiches,

“Blurring of Boundaries”The Food Continuum

Canned Fish Lifestyle Indices

Fish Lifestyle Indices

Chilled Frozen Canned

“I regard myself as a connoisseur of food and wine”

131 68 79

“Price is the most important factor when buying a product” 91 111 104

Share indexed on Total Fish – 52 w/e July 17 2005

Chilled vs Frozen Key Points

Chilled Fish overtook Frozen Fish in 1997 in terms of Value

Chilled Fish outperforms Frozen Fish driven by new consumers entering this sector of the market

1.2 million more households have started buying Chilled Fish in 5 years

Chilled Fish is priced £2.78 more per Kg than Frozen Fish although both sectors have experienced growth in average price through premiumisation

Agenda

Lifestyles changes

Chilled v Frozen

Chilled

Frozen

Retailer Issues

Fresh Proteins – 10 year trendsChilled fish is the fastest growing fresh protein sector overtaking pork during 1997, now reaching similar levels to beef and poultry

MATs to July

Fresh Proteins – 10 year trendsChilled fish is the fastest growing fresh protein sector overtaking pork during 1997, now reaching similar levels to beef and poultry

MATs to July

Chilled Fish Sector Performance - Value Share %

All Other

Breaded / Battered declining – growth in Added Value & Shellfish

Chilled Fish Sector Performance - Value Share %

All Other

Breaded / Battered declining – growth in Added Value & Shellfish

Chilled Fish Sector Trends - Value YOY Change %

52 w/e 18 July 2004 vs. 52 w/e 17 July 2005

Shellfish, driven by growth in prawns, is the fastest growing sector followed by Smoked. The more traditional battered products experiencing sharp decline year on year.

Chilled Fish Sectors Penetration – 4 w/e Smoked products see an uplift in sales over Xmas with a fall seen across natural and breaded products.

Chilled Fish Sectors Sales £000s – 4 w/e Smoked products see an uplift in sales over Xmas with a fall seen across natural and breaded products.

Smoked Fish Weekly Sales £000s Smoked products see an uplift in sales over Xmas

Natural Salmon Weekly Sales £000s - TescoThe Effect of Promotions

Natural Salmon Weekly Sales £000s - SainsburyThe Effect of Promotions

Chilled Fish Species Performance - Value Share %

All Other

Salmon and Prawns are the key species driving growth

Chilled Fish Species Performance - Value Share %

All Other

Salmon and Prawns are the key species driving growth

Chilled Fish Species Performance - Value £m

All Other

Salmon and prawns are the key species driving growth

Chilled Fish Species Performance - Value £m

All Other

Salmon and prawns are the key species driving growth

Demographic Profiles of Chilled Fish Sectors

Age of Housewife vs. Social Class - Spend %Younger

More Affluent

OlderMore Affluent

OlderLess Affluent

YoungerLess Affluent

Added value products appeal to the more affluent consumer versus shellfish consumers who are more downmarket and younger.

Smoked

Shellfish

NaturalBreaded

Battered

Added Value Products

Total Chilled Fish

53 54 55 56 57 58 59

% of Class ABC1

52 w/e July 17 2005

Demographic Profiles of Chilled Fish Sectors

Age of Housewife vs. Social Class - Spend %Younger

More Affluent

OlderMore Affluent

OlderLess Affluent

YoungerLess Affluent

Added value products appeal to the more affluent consumer versus shellfish consumers who are more downmarket and younger.

Smoked

Shellfish

NaturalBreaded

Battered

Added Value Products

Total Chilled Fish

53 54 55 56 57 58 59

% of Class ABC1

52 w/e July 17 2005

2.70.207.607.40Price per Vol

-2.6-0.010.40.5Trip Vol

0.00.003.423.41Trip Spend

4.40.317.26.9AWP (Vol per Buyer)

7.33.7254.8551.12AWP (Spend per Buyer)

7.21.0816.115.0Purchase Frequency

0.90.7283.582.8Penetration %

5.57646147821140175Volume (000s Units)

8.38628211237161037435Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

2.70.207.607.40Price per Vol

-2.6-0.010.40.5Trip Vol

0.00.003.423.41Trip Spend

0.90.7283.582.8Penetration %

5.57646147821140175Volume (000s Units)

8.38628211237161037435Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-50000 0 50000 100000 150000

Penetration % Purchase FrequencyTrip Vol Price per Vol

Key Performance Indicators for Total Chilled Fish –Value up 8.3% worth £86.3m

Expenditure (£000s)

Volume (000s Units)

Penetration % *

Purchase FrequencyTrip Vol

AWP (Vol per Buyer)

Price per Vol

£1123.7m +8.3%Increase of £86.3m

147.8m vol +5.5%Contribution = £58.1m

83.5% +0.9%Contribution = £10.1m

16.1 trips +7.2%Contribution = £75.1m

0.4 vol -2.6%Contribution = -£27m

7.2 vol +4.4%Contribution = £48m

£7.6 +2.7%Contribution = £28.2m

* Pen Contribution includes Population

growth of 0.1%

2.70.207.607.40Price per Vol

-2.6-0.010.40.5Trip Vol

0.00.003.423.41Trip Spend

0.90.7283.582.8Penetration %

5.57646147821140175Volume (000s Units)

8.38628211237161037435Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

2.70.207.607.40Price per Vol

-2.6-0.010.40.5Trip Vol

0.00.003.423.41Trip Spend

0.90.7283.582.8Penetration %

5.57646147821140175Volume (000s Units)

8.38628211237161037435Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-50000 0 50000 100000 150000

Volume (000s Units)

Penetration % *

AWP (Vol per Buyer)

Price per Vol

£1123.7m +8.3%Increase of £86.3m

growth of 0.1%

2.70.207.607.40Price per Vol

-2.6-0.010.40.5Trip Vol

0.00.003.423.41Trip Spend

0.90.7283.582.8Penetration %

5.57646147821140175Volume (000s Units)

8.38628211237161037435Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

2.70.207.607.40Price per Vol

-2.6-0.010.40.5Trip Vol

0.00.003.423.41Trip Spend

0.90.7283.582.8Penetration %

5.57646147821140175Volume (000s Units)

8.38628211237161037435Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-50000 0 50000 100000 150000

Volume (000s Units)

Penetration % *

AWP (Vol per Buyer)

Price per Vol

£1123.7m +8.3%Increase of £86.3m

growth of 0.1%

2.70.207.607.40Price per Vol

-2.6-0.010.40.5Trip Vol

0.00.003.423.41Trip Spend

0.90.7283.582.8Penetration %

5.57646147821140175Volume (000s Units)

8.38628211237161037435Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

2.70.207.607.40Price per Vol

-2.6-0.010.40.5Trip Vol

0.00.003.423.41Trip Spend

0.90.7283.582.8Penetration %

5.57646147821140175Volume (000s Units)

8.38628211237161037435Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-50000 0 50000 100000 150000

Volume (000s Units)

Penetration % *

AWP (Vol per Buyer)

Price per Vol

£1123.7m +8.3%Increase of £86.3m

growth of 0.1%

2.70.207.607.40Price per Vol

-2.6-0.010.40.5Trip Vol

0.00.003.423.41Trip Spend

0.90.7283.582.8Penetration %

5.57646147821140175Volume (000s Units)

8.38628211237161037435Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

2.70.207.607.40Price per Vol

-2.6-0.010.40.5Trip Vol

0.00.003.423.41Trip Spend

0.90.7283.582.8Penetration %

5.57646147821140175Volume (000s Units)

8.38628211237161037435Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-50000 0 50000 100000 150000

Volume (000s Units)

Penetration % *

AWP (Vol per Buyer)

Price per Vol

£1123.7m +8.3%Increase of £86.3m

growth of 0.1%

2.70.207.607.40Price per Vol

-2.6-0.010.40.5Trip Vol

0.00.003.423.41Trip Spend

0.90.7283.582.8Penetration %

5.57646147821140175Volume (000s Units)

8.38628211237161037435Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

2.70.207.607.40Price per Vol

-2.6-0.010.40.5Trip Vol

0.00.003.423.41Trip Spend

0.90.7283.582.8Penetration %

5.57646147821140175Volume (000s Units)

8.38628211237161037435Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-50000 0 50000 100000 150000

Volume (000s Units)

Penetration % *

AWP (Vol per Buyer)

Price per Vol

£1123.7m +8.3%Increase of £86.3m

growth of 0.1%

2.70.207.607.40Price per Vol

-2.6-0.010.40.5Trip Vol

0.00.003.423.41Trip Spend

0.90.7283.582.8Penetration %

5.57646147821140175Volume (000s Units)

8.38628211237161037435Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

2.70.207.607.40Price per Vol

-2.6-0.010.40.5Trip Vol

0.00.003.423.41Trip Spend

0.90.7283.582.8Penetration %

5.57646147821140175Volume (000s Units)

8.38628211237161037435Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-50000 0 50000 100000 150000

Volume (000s Units)

Penetration % *

AWP (Vol per Buyer)

Price per Vol

£1123.7m +8.3%Increase of £86.3m

growth of 0.1%

2.70.207.607.40Price per Vol

-2.6-0.010.40.5Trip Vol

0.00.003.423.41Trip Spend

0.90.7283.582.8Penetration %

5.57646147821140175Volume (000s Units)

8.38628211237161037435Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

2.70.207.607.40Price per Vol

-2.6-0.010.40.5Trip Vol

0.00.003.423.41Trip Spend

0.90.7283.582.8Penetration %

5.57646147821140175Volume (000s Units)

8.38628211237161037435Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-50000 0 50000 100000 150000

Volume (000s Units)

Penetration % *

AWP (Vol per Buyer)

Price per Vol

£1123.7m +8.3%Increase of £86.3m

growth of 0.1%

2.70.207.607.40Price per Vol

-2.6-0.010.40.5Trip Vol

0.00.003.423.41Trip Spend

0.90.7283.582.8Penetration %

5.57646147821140175Volume (000s Units)

8.38628211237161037435Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

2.70.207.607.40Price per Vol

-2.6-0.010.40.5Trip Vol

0.00.003.423.41Trip Spend

0.90.7283.582.8Penetration %

5.57646147821140175Volume (000s Units)

8.38628211237161037435Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-50000 0 50000 100000 150000

Volume (000s Units)

Penetration % *

AWP (Vol per Buyer)

Price per Vol

£1123.7m +8.3%Increase of £86.3m

growth of 0.1%

-0.8-0.057.087.13Price per Vol

0.70.000.40.4Trip Vol

-0.10.002.982.98Trip Spend

1.10.6154.153.5Penetration %

8.025303417731647Volume (000s Units)

7.216177241892225715Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-0.8-0.057.087.13Price per Vol

0.70.000.40.4Trip Vol

-0.10.002.982.98Trip Spend

1.10.6154.153.5Penetration %

8.025303417731647Volume (000s Units)

7.216177241892225715Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000

Key Performance Indicators for Added Value Chilled –Value up 7.2% worth £16.2m

Volume (000s Units)

Penetration % *

AWP (Vol per Buyer)

Price per Vol

£241.9m +7.2%Increase of £16.2m

34.2m vol +8%Contribution = £17.9m

54.1% +1.1%Contribution = £2816k

6.1 trips +6%Contribution = £13.5m

0.4 vol +0.7%Contribution = £1555k

2.6 vol +6.7%Contribution = £15.1m

£7.08 -0.8%Contribution = -£1717k

growth of 0.1%

-0.8-0.057.087.13Price per Vol

0.70.000.40.4Trip Vol

-0.10.002.982.98Trip Spend

1.10.6154.153.5Penetration %

8.025303417731647Volume (000s Units)

7.216177241892225715Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-0.8-0.057.087.13Price per Vol

0.70.000.40.4Trip Vol

-0.10.002.982.98Trip Spend

1.10.6154.153.5Penetration %

8.025303417731647Volume (000s Units)

7.216177241892225715Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000

Key Performance Indicators for Added Value Chilled –Value up 7.2% worth £16.2m

Volume (000s Units)

Penetration % *

AWP (Vol per Buyer)

Price per Vol

£241.9m +7.2%Increase of £16.2m

34.2m vol +8%Contribution = £17.9m

6.1 trips +6%Contribution = £13.5m

£7.08 -0.8%Contribution = -£1717k

growth of 0.1%

3.60.267.567.30Price per Vol

-2.8-0.010.50.5Trip Vol

0.70.033.753.73Trip Spend

2.11.1254.653.5Penetration %

5.529935775454761Volume (000s Units)

9.236828436650399822Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

3.60.267.567.30Price per Vol

-2.8-0.010.50.5Trip Vol

0.70.033.753.73Trip Spend

2.11.1254.653.5Penetration %

5.529935775454761Volume (000s Units)

9.236828436650399822Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-20000 -10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

Key Performance Indicators for Natural Chilled –Value up 9.2% worth £36.8m

Volume (000s Units)

Penetration % *

AWP (Vol per Buyer)

Price per Vol

£436.7m +9.2%Increase of £36.8m

growth of 0.1%

3.60.267.567.30Price per Vol

-2.8-0.010.50.5Trip Vol

0.70.033.753.73Trip Spend

2.11.1254.653.5Penetration %

5.529935775454761Volume (000s Units)

9.236828436650399822Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

3.60.267.567.30Price per Vol

-2.8-0.010.50.5Trip Vol

0.70.033.753.73Trip Spend

2.11.1254.653.5Penetration %

5.529935775454761Volume (000s Units)

9.236828436650399822Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-20000 -10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

Key Performance Indicators for Natural Chilled –Value up 9.2% worth £36.8m

Volume (000s Units)

Penetration % *

AWP (Vol per Buyer)

Price per Vol

£436.7m +9.2%Increase of £36.8m

growth of 0.1%

2.70.228.278.05Price per Vol

-2.3-0.010.30.3Trip Vol

0.30.012.502.49Trip Spend

2.00.8140.239.4Penetration %

8.914261751316088Volume (000s Units)

11.815291144765129473Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

2.70.228.278.05Price per Vol

-2.3-0.010.30.3Trip Vol

0.30.012.502.49Trip Spend

2.00.8140.239.4Penetration %

8.914261751316088Volume (000s Units)

11.815291144765129473Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000

Key Performance Indicators for Shellfish Chilled –Value up 11.8% worth £15.3m

Volume (000s Units)

Penetration % *

AWP (Vol per Buyer)

Price per Vol

£144.8m +11.8%Increase of £15.3m

40.2% +2%Contribution = £2810k

0.3 vol -2.3%Contribution = -£2988k

£8.27 +2.7%Contribution = £3543k

growth of 0.1%

2.70.228.278.05Price per Vol

-2.3-0.010.30.3Trip Vol

0.30.012.502.49Trip Spend

2.00.8140.239.4Penetration %

8.914261751316088Volume (000s Units)

11.815291144765129473Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

2.70.228.278.05Price per Vol

-2.3-0.010.30.3Trip Vol

0.30.012.502.49Trip Spend

2.00.8140.239.4Penetration %

8.914261751316088Volume (000s Units)

11.815291144765129473Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000

Key Performance Indicators for Shellfish Chilled –Value up 11.8% worth £15.3m

Volume (000s Units)

Penetration % *

AWP (Vol per Buyer)

Price per Vol

£144.8m +11.8%Increase of £15.3m

40.2% +2%Contribution = £2810k

growth of 0.1%

3.60.308.588.28Price per Vol

-4.3-0.010.30.3Trip Vol

-0.8-0.022.462.48Trip Spend

4.82.4052.049.6Penetration %

6.714862367922194Volume (000s Units)

10.519359203136183777Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

3.60.308.588.28Price per Vol

-4.3-0.010.30.3Trip Vol

-0.8-0.022.462.48Trip Spend

4.82.4052.049.6Penetration %

6.714862367922194Volume (000s Units)

10.519359203136183777Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-10000 0 10000 20000 30000

Key Performance Indicators for Smoked Chilled –Value up 10.5% worth £19.4m

Volume (000s Units)

Penetration % *

AWP (Vol per Buyer)

Price per Vol

£203.1m +10.5%Increase of £19.4m

52% +4.8%Contribution = £9110k

growth of 0.1%

3.60.308.588.28Price per Vol

-4.3-0.010.30.3Trip Vol

-0.8-0.022.462.48Trip Spend

4.82.4052.049.6Penetration %

6.714862367922194Volume (000s Units)

10.519359203136183777Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

3.60.308.588.28Price per Vol

-4.3-0.010.30.3Trip Vol

-0.8-0.022.462.48Trip Spend

4.82.4052.049.6Penetration %

6.714862367922194Volume (000s Units)

10.519359203136183777Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-10000 0 10000 20000 30000

Key Performance Indicators for Smoked Chilled –Value up 10.5% worth £19.4m

Volume (000s Units)

Penetration % *

AWP (Vol per Buyer)

Price per Vol

£203.1m +10.5%Increase of £19.4m

52% +4.8%Contribution = £9110k

growth of 0.1%

Chilled Fish Key Points Top performing fresh protein over the last 5 years

Growth has been driven by consumers shopping more frequently and increase in price per kg

Added value products and shellfish are key growth sectors which both appeal to different consumers

Spend within independents and fishmongers has declined substantially over the last 10 years through loss of buyers to multiple retailers

Remaining independent buyers are significantly older, less affluent and from smaller households

they are also more traditional consumers who have time to spend cooking

Chilled Fish Key Points Top performing fresh protein over the last 5 years

Growth has been driven by consumers shopping more frequently and increase in price per kg

Added value products and shellfish are key growth sectors which both appeal to different consumers

Spend within independents and fishmongers has declined substantially over the last 10 years through loss of buyers to multiple retailers

Remaining independent buyers are significantly older, less affluent and from smaller households

they are also more traditional consumers who have time to spend cooking

Agenda

Lifestyles changes

Chilled v Frozen

Chilled

Frozen

Retailer Issues

Frozen Proteins – 10 year trendsFrozen Fish, the dominant sector, is the only sector to show growth over the last 10 years. Poultry has experienced the most significant decline.

MATs to July

Frozen Proteins – 10 year trendsFrozen Fish, the dominant sector, is the only sector to show growth over the last 10 years. Poultry has experienced the most significant decline.

MATs to July

Frozen Fish Sector Performance - Value Share %

All Other

Battered & Breaded fillets have over performed and gained share. Fish main meals continue to decline has consumers preferences changes to chilled meals.

Frozen Fish Sector Performance - Value Share %

All Other

Battered & Breaded fillets have over performed and gained share. Fish main meals continue to decline has consumers preferences changes to chilled meals.

< << <

Frozen Fish Sector Trends - Value YOY Change %

52 w/e 29 Feb 2004 vs. 52 w/e 27 Feb 2005

Children’s products and innovation driving ‘Other Fish Products’ – Smoked and Battered Fillets driven by promotions

1.20.064.824.76Price per Vol

2.70.020.60.6Trip Vol

4.00.123.022.91Trip Spend

-0.10.006.86.8AWP (Vol per Buyer)

-2.7-0.3010.811.1Purchase Frequency

-0.6-0.5488.589.1Penetration %

-0.6-850146864147715Volume (000s Units)

0.74662707686703024Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

1.20.064.824.76Price per Vol

2.70.020.60.6Trip Vol

4.00.123.022.91Trip Spend

-0.6-0.5488.589.1Penetration %

-0.6-850146864147715Volume (000s Units)

0.74662707686703024Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-30000 -20000 -10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000

Key Performance Indicators for Total Frozen Fish –Value up 0.7% worth £4662k

Volume (000s Units)

Penetration % *

AWP (Vol per Buyer)

Price per Vol

£707.7m +0.7%Increase of £4662k

146.9m vol -0.6%Contribution = -£3991k

88.5% -0.6%Contribution = -£3624k

10.8 trips -2.7%Contribution = -£19.4m

growth of 0.1%

1.20.064.824.76Price per Vol

2.70.020.60.6Trip Vol

4.00.123.022.91Trip Spend

-0.6-0.5488.589.1Penetration %

-0.6-850146864147715Volume (000s Units)

0.74662707686703024Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

1.20.064.824.76Price per Vol

2.70.020.60.6Trip Vol

4.00.123.022.91Trip Spend

-0.6-0.5488.589.1Penetration %

-0.6-850146864147715Volume (000s Units)

0.74662707686703024Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-30000 -20000 -10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000

Volume (000s Units)

Penetration % *

AWP (Vol per Buyer)

Price per Vol

£707.7m +0.7%Increase of £4662k

88.5% -0.6%Contribution = -£3624k

growth of 0.1%

1.20.064.824.76Price per Vol

2.70.020.60.6Trip Vol

4.00.123.022.91Trip Spend

-0.6-0.5488.589.1Penetration %

-0.6-850146864147715Volume (000s Units)

0.74662707686703024Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

1.20.064.824.76Price per Vol

2.70.020.60.6Trip Vol

4.00.123.022.91Trip Spend

-0.6-0.5488.589.1Penetration %

-0.6-850146864147715Volume (000s Units)

0.74662707686703024Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-30000 -20000 -10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000

Volume (000s Units)

Penetration % *

AWP (Vol per Buyer)

Price per Vol

£707.7m +0.7%Increase of £4662k

88.5% -0.6%Contribution = -£3624k

growth of 0.1%

1.20.064.824.76Price per Vol

2.70.020.60.6Trip Vol

4.00.123.022.91Trip Spend

-0.6-0.5488.589.1Penetration %

-0.6-850146864147715Volume (000s Units)

0.74662707686703024Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

1.20.064.824.76Price per Vol

2.70.020.60.6Trip Vol

4.00.123.022.91Trip Spend

-0.6-0.5488.589.1Penetration %

-0.6-850146864147715Volume (000s Units)

0.74662707686703024Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-30000 -20000 -10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000

Volume (000s Units)

Penetration % *

AWP (Vol per Buyer)

Price per Vol

£707.7m +0.7%Increase of £4662k

88.5% -0.6%Contribution = -£3624k

growth of 0.1%

1.20.064.824.76Price per Vol

2.70.020.60.6Trip Vol

4.00.123.022.91Trip Spend

-0.6-0.5488.589.1Penetration %

-0.6-850146864147715Volume (000s Units)

0.74662707686703024Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

1.20.064.824.76Price per Vol

2.70.020.60.6Trip Vol

4.00.123.022.91Trip Spend

-0.6-0.5488.589.1Penetration %

-0.6-850146864147715Volume (000s Units)

0.74662707686703024Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-30000 -20000 -10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000

Volume (000s Units)

Penetration % *

AWP (Vol per Buyer)

Price per Vol

£707.7m +0.7%Increase of £4662k

88.5% -0.6%Contribution = -£3624k

growth of 0.1%

1.20.064.824.76Price per Vol

2.70.020.60.6Trip Vol

4.00.123.022.91Trip Spend

-0.6-0.5488.589.1Penetration %

-0.6-850146864147715Volume (000s Units)

0.74662707686703024Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

1.20.064.824.76Price per Vol

2.70.020.60.6Trip Vol

4.00.123.022.91Trip Spend

-0.6-0.5488.589.1Penetration %

-0.6-850146864147715Volume (000s Units)

0.74662707686703024Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-30000 -20000 -10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000

Volume (000s Units)

Penetration % *

AWP (Vol per Buyer)

Price per Vol

£707.7m +0.7%Increase of £4662k

88.5% -0.6%Contribution = -£3624k

growth of 0.1%

1.20.064.824.76Price per Vol

2.70.020.60.6Trip Vol

4.00.123.022.91Trip Spend

-0.6-0.5488.589.1Penetration %

-0.6-850146864147715Volume (000s Units)

0.74662707686703024Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

1.20.064.824.76Price per Vol

2.70.020.60.6Trip Vol

4.00.123.022.91Trip Spend

-0.6-0.5488.589.1Penetration %

-0.6-850146864147715Volume (000s Units)

0.74662707686703024Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-30000 -20000 -10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000

Volume (000s Units)

Penetration % *

AWP (Vol per Buyer)

Price per Vol

£707.7m +0.7%Increase of £4662k

88.5% -0.6%Contribution = -£3624k

growth of 0.1%

1.20.064.824.76Price per Vol

2.70.020.60.6Trip Vol

4.00.123.022.91Trip Spend

-0.6-0.5488.589.1Penetration %

-0.6-850146864147715Volume (000s Units)

0.74662707686703024Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

1.20.064.824.76Price per Vol

2.70.020.60.6Trip Vol

4.00.123.022.91Trip Spend

-0.6-0.5488.589.1Penetration %

-0.6-850146864147715Volume (000s Units)

0.74662707686703024Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-30000 -20000 -10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000

Volume (000s Units)

Penetration % *

AWP (Vol per Buyer)

Price per Vol

£707.7m +0.7%Increase of £4662k

88.5% -0.6%Contribution = -£3624k

growth of 0.1%

1.20.064.824.76Price per Vol

2.70.020.60.6Trip Vol

4.00.123.022.91Trip Spend

-0.6-0.5488.589.1Penetration %

-0.6-850146864147715Volume (000s Units)

0.74662707686703024Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

1.20.064.824.76Price per Vol

2.70.020.60.6Trip Vol

4.00.123.022.91Trip Spend

-0.6-0.5488.589.1Penetration %

-0.6-850146864147715Volume (000s Units)

0.74662707686703024Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-30000 -20000 -10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000

Volume (000s Units)

Penetration % *

AWP (Vol per Buyer)

Price per Vol

£707.7m +0.7%Increase of £4662k

88.5% -0.6%Contribution = -£3624k

growth of 0.1%

1.20.043.723.68Price per Vol

2.20.010.60.5Trip Vol

3.40.072.051.98Trip Spend

-1.3-0.032.42.4AWP (Vol per Buyer)

-0.2-0.018.968.97AWP (Spend per Buyer)

-9.9-4.7342.847.6Penetration %

-11.0-31452531728462Volume (000s Units)

-10.0-1045894180104638Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

1.20.043.723.68Price per Vol

2.20.010.60.5Trip Vol

3.40.072.051.98Trip Spend

-9.9-4.7342.847.6Penetration %

-11.0-31452531728462Volume (000s Units)

-10.0-1045894180104638Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000

Key Performance Indicators for Frozen Fish Ready/Main Meals –Value down 10% worth £10.5m

Volume (000s Units)

Penetration % *

AWP (Vol per Buyer)

Price per Vol

£94.2m -10%Decrease of -£10.5m

25.3m vol -11%Contribution = -£11.7m

42.8% -9.9%Contribution = -£10.3m

4.4 trips -3.4%Contribution = -£3618k

growth of 0.1%

1.20.043.723.68Price per Vol

2.20.010.60.5Trip Vol

3.40.072.051.98Trip Spend

-9.9-4.7342.847.6Penetration %

-11.0-31452531728462Volume (000s Units)

-10.0-1045894180104638Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

1.20.043.723.68Price per Vol

2.20.010.60.5Trip Vol

3.40.072.051.98Trip Spend

-9.9-4.7342.847.6Penetration %

-11.0-31452531728462Volume (000s Units)

-10.0-1045894180104638Expenditure (£000s)

% Change

Actual Change

52 w/e 17-Jul-05

52 w/e 18-Jul-04

-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000

Key Performance Indicators for Frozen Fish Ready/Main Meals –Value down 10% worth £10.5m

Volume (000s Units)

Penetration % *

AWP (Vol per Buyer)

Price per Vol

£94.2m -10%Decrease of -£10.5m

25.3m vol -11%Contribution = -£11.7m

42.8% -9.9%Contribution = -£10.3m

4.4 trips -3.4%Contribution = -£3618k

growth of 0.1%

Agenda

Lifestyles changes

Chilled v Frozen

Chilled

Frozen

Retailer Issues

Chilled Fish - Multiples versus Independents Value %The share of independents & fishmongers has gradually declined over the last 10 years. Multiples now account for almost 90% of all chilled fish sold.

‘Multiples’ includes Co-Op and M&S – MATs to July

Branded vs. Private Label – Frozen Fish

£681m £703m £708m3%

Private Label is only driver of any growth in frozen fish

Branded vs. Private Label – Chilled Fish

£962m £1,037m £1,124m8%

Private Label dominates this category although growth in branded has accelerated over the last year

The Fish Index

Total Co-op

Iceland

Morrisons

Waitrose

Kwik Save

Somerfield

Sainsbury

TOTAL GROCERS

30 35 40 45 50 55 60

52 w/e Mar 27 2005

The Fish Index

Total Co-op

Iceland

Morrisons

Waitrose

Kwik Save

Somerfield

Sainsbury

TOTAL GROCERS

30 35 40 45 50 55 60

52 w/e Mar 27 2005

The Fish Index

Total Co-op

Iceland

Morrisons

Waitrose

Kwik Save

Somerfield

Sainsbury

TOTAL GROCERS

30 35 40 45 50 55 60

52 w/e Mar 27 2005

The Fish Index

Total Co-op

Iceland

Morrisons

Waitrose

Kwik Save

Somerfield

Sainsbury

TOTAL GROCERS

30 35 40 45 50 55 60

52 w/e Mar 27 2005

People are starting to do more small trips…

Overall Trip Growth: +5.6%

One need shop (General) +8%One need shop (Fresh): +10%

Top-up shop (Fresh) +6%

And Tesco are grabbing a bigger share of this increased frequency

21% - last year

23% - this yearOccasions - % - 52w/e Feb

Source: Companies

..because Tesco have moved into Convenience by acquiring T&S and Adminstore – this has boosted their selling space

Source: IGD

…and their store numbers - giving them a big increase in easily accessible local outlets

Source: IGD

…and their store numbers - giving them a big increase in easily accessible local outlets

Source: IGD

The Source Of Occasions Growth For TescoHuge Increase For Tesco In Occasions Coming From Smaller Shops

Growth Millions Of Occasions By Shopper Mission – Tesco – 52 w/e 22nd May 2005

+14.6m

+24.7m

+13.7m

+34.0m

+102.2m

Market Trading IndicesBase: Grocers

Agenda

Lifestyles changes

Chilled v Frozen

Chilled

Frozen

Retailer Issues

There is significant country by country variation in Private Label levels

34 33 3328 27 26 26

1915 13 13 11

7 7 7 74 4 4 3 1 0 0 0

nd UKGe

nd Italy

There is significant country by country variation in Private Label levels

34 33 3328 27 26 26

1915 13 13 11

7 7 7 74 4 4 3 1 0 0 0

nd UKGe

nd Italy

There is significant country by country variation in Discounter levels

17 1716 15 14 13 13 11 11

85 5 4

Italy GB

There is significant country by country variation in Discounter levels

17 1716 15 14 13 13 11 11

85 5 4

Italy GB

Reminders

LifestyleChanges

Reminders

Chilledv

Frozen

Reminders

LifestyleChanges

Reminders

LifestyleChanges

Chilledv

Frozen

Chilled

Frozen

Reminders

LifestyleChanges

Chilledv

Frozen

Chilled

Reminders

RetailerIssues

LifestyleChanges

Chilledv

Frozen

FrozenChilled

EuropeanContext

Reminders

LifestyleChanges

Chilledv

Frozen

FrozenChilled

RetailerIssues

Thank you

[email protected]

Changing Lifestyles – Changing Marketplace The UK...

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