Changing Face Of Terrorism New York, July 14, 2010 LATERAL...

LATERAL THINKING

ON CATASTROPHES:

BLACK AND RED SWANS

Dr. Gordon Woo

Changing Face Of Terrorism

New York, July 14, 2010

Changing Face Of Terrorism

New York, July 14, 2010

Singapore, 25 October 2011

CONFIDENTIAL © 2006 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.

TM

Black and Red Swans

Once an event occurs, the impact may depend on random factors.

Wind direction may ameliorate loss from a release of toxic or otherwise harmful material.

– Ash from a volcano may be dispersed over areas with little air traffic.

– Radioactive fallout in a densely populated region depends on wind direction.

2


TM

Black and Red Swans





3


TM

Anak Krakatau: June 4, 2009 Marco Fulle

4


TM

Donald Rumsfeld

Feb 12, 2002, Dept. of Defense news briefing.

As we know, There are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know There are known unknowns. That is to say We know there are some things We do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, The ones we don’t know we don’t know.

Risk Management

Solutions

™


TM

6

There is little that we know in a deterministic sense. This is the rationale for the probabilistic methodology.


TM

Known Unknowns

We don’t know the location of all hazard sources in any given region:

– Active faults

– Volcanic vents

– Terrorists

We don’t know exactly the maximum magnitude or recurrence interval of faults.

Nor do we know the location, size and timing of the next hazard event of any type: earthquake, volcanic eruption, etc..


TM

Darfield earthquake, NZ (M7.1) 4 September 2010

The area was mapped, but the fault that caused this Canterbury earthquake was buried under gravels deposited at the end of the last glaciation, about 16,000 years ago.


TM

Unknown unknowns

Things you think you know, or take for granted as knowing, but actually don’t.

What is an ‘unknown unknown’ to one person may not be to another.

– e.g. US military regarded as liberators in Iraq

‘It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so’.

Mark Twain


TM

Opinionated decision-makers

Dictators

Politicians

Security officials

Financial traders


TM

© 2004 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.

Mindblindness

A state of being blind to the thoughts, beliefs, knowledge, desires and intentions of others.

Simon Baron-Cohen

This can lead to a lack of awareness that some sectors of the population pose a societal risk.


TM

Breivik exploited the lack of Norwegian societal awareness of a domestic terrorist threat.

The Norwegian authorities didn’t know that they didn’t know all their principal threat groups.

Norwegian security service might have had a lead on Breivik through his procurement of chemicals.

According to the PST Director-general, Janne Kristiansen, ‘Not even the STASI could have prevented this attack’.

Network analysis shows that the STASI would have prevented any plot with more than 2 conspirators.

Anders Breivik: Norwegian unknown unknown

12


TM

13

Map of Breivik’s manifesto links to other webpages [Guardian 7/9/11]


TM

14

Anatomy of a spectacular planned Jihadi attack: THE SINGAPORE PLOT 2001

Six large truck bombs to explode simultaneously in Singapore

Targets chosen were symbolic and Western, e.g. embassies

Singapore was substituted for Manila, because the US and Israeli embassies there were difficult to damage significantly.

Attacks were timed between 8 am and 10 am to maximize casualties, perhaps as many as on 9/11.

Most ambitious synchronized planned attack post-9/11 outside the Middle East.

‘The Martyr’s Oath’

Stewart Bell, 2005


TM

15

Ali Khan Islamist

Mohamed Ellias Explosives procurer

MOHAMMED

JABARAH

Fathur Al-Gozi

Bomb maker

Mansour Jabarah

Father: Islamist

Abdul Rahman Jabarah

Brother: terrorist in Saudi

Anas Al Kandari Kuwaiti terrorist

AQ

Leaders

‘The Martyr’s Oath’

Stewart Bell, 2005

Faiz Bafana

JI Regional Council

JI

Leaders

Fathi Bafana

Azzam Marzuki Security expert

Abu Gaith Kuwaiti cleric

recruiter


TM

Cracking the terrorist code

16

Elaborately encoded messages between BA computer staff member, Rajib Karim, and the radical cleric, Anwar Al-Awlaki, were decrypted from December 2009. Karim was attempting to get a bomb on a plane to the USA. He was convicted on 28 February, 2011.

“I am excited by hearing your profession. I pray that Allah may grant us a breakthrough with you".

Intent

Capability

Opportunity


TM

17

The mathematician, Clifford Cocks, discovered public key encryption on his first day at work at GCHQ in 1973.

Mathematical superiority in counter-terrorism


TM

Social network analysis software

i2’s Counterterrorism Analysis-IntelCenter solution (CTAS) is developed to enhance users’ existing intelligence

by combining i2's industry-leading Analyst's Notebook with IntelCenter's intelligence products

in order for organizations to better interdict terrorist operations and reduce the likelihood of future attacks.

18

The frequency of successful terrorist attacks is governed not so much by imponderable human behaviour as by social networks, which are amenable to analysis.


TM

19

Joining the dots: A terrorist’s risk perspective:

To avoid network unravelling, terrorists should seek resilience against random link detection

The more arrests, the greater the strength of prosecution evidence


TM

Single-mindedness or Mindblindness? Operations Research Risk Analysis

Maximize efficiency of business operations

Cut waste and speed production through lean manufacturing

Minimize inventory through scheduling ‘just in time’

Ensure resilience to external shocks

Mitigate the risk through defence in depth

Maintain redundancy in case of a major external shock

20


TM

21

OKLAHOMA CITY

U.S.


TM

22

On 8th May 2003, a tornado swept through Oklahoma City, as the afternoon rush hour was beginning. It ripped roofs off homes and businesses and damaged a General Motors car assembly plant. At least 104 people were injured in the Oklahoma City area.

Oklahoma City car assembly plant

A tornado strike is a classic example of a low-probability high-consequence event


TM

23

Satellite imagery on 24 January 2005 shows rivers of water flowing through the deep valleys around Medina. Dozens died traversing these valleys.

The floods were triggered by a powerful rainstorm on January 22, 2005, during the final days of the annual Hajj pilgrimage, when millions were visiting the region. The heavy rains produced some of the worst flooding in 20 years in Medina.

Flash flood risk in Saudi Arabia


TM

Extreme flood: 25 November 2009

The level of rainfall over 6 hours on 25 November in Jeddah and surrounding areas reached about 72mm. This heaviest rainfall in many years caused flash flooding and the collapse of homes.

Hundreds of people were swept to their deaths in one of the most deadly floods that Saudi Arabia has ever experienced. Many of the victims were drowned in cars.


TM

Extreme November 2009 rainfall in Jeddah

Excess rainfall in November 2009 Standard Deviation Average for November

mm


TM

Urban flood vulnerability

Due to the rarity of extreme rainstorms, Saudi cities lack the infrastructure to deal with heavy rain, such as having effective rain sewers and drainage channels.

Jeddah’s deputy mayor for construction said the city is now only 30% protected against imminent dangers of flooding.

Flood risk mitigation through the construction of new drainage channels will be costly and disruptive.


TM

Black and Red Swans





27

Y2k Millennium pandemic Mad-cow disease mass fatalities Black holes and earthquakes generated by high-energy experiments Hijack of space shuttle Genetically-Modified Foods?


TM

Black swans

The health impacts of nanotechnology are unknown. This

is a new technology, and risk analysts are wary of negative

consequences.

Some medical treatments may be accepted as safe, but

eventually have negative side-effects.

When mobile phones were introduced, there was no

awareness that the radiation

from them might cause tumours.


TM

Catastrophes of the past two years

Haiti earthquake January 2010

Chile earthquake February 2010

Deepwater Horizon explosion April 2010

Eyjafjallayokull eruption April 2010

Darfield earthquake September 2010

Christchurch earthquake February 2011

Tohoku tsunami and nuclear accident March 2011

Arab Spring: emergent phenomenon – black swan for the dictators

Eurozone crisis


TM

Haiti earthquake: 12 January 2010


TM

No surface rupture has been found associated with the

Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault, which was studied

before the earthquake happened.

Haiti earthquake: 12 January 2010


TM

Mohammed Bouazizi triggered the Arab Spring

32


TM

Questions for discussion

What are the black swans in seismology?

Why might corporate risk managers be particularly prone to surprise by black swans?

What should the balance be between worrying about black swans and avoiding red swans?

Changing Face Of Terrorism New York, July 14, 2010 LATERAL...

Documents

Transcript of Changing Face Of Terrorism New York, July 14, 2010 LATERAL...