Changing Demographics in the U. S. and the Multicultural Education Implications

Philip C. ChinnProfessor EmeritusCalifornia State University, Los Angeles

Multicultural CenterMinnesota State University, MankatoNovember 15, 2012

1912 vs. 2012

1912 2012 2050 ProjectedPopulation 95,335,000 314,159,265 439,010,000MN Population 2,075,708 5,344,861 7,609,503CA Population 2,377,000 37,700,000 59,507,000Ave. Income $1,033 year $50,054 (family of four)Life Expectancy 47 (Men) 75.96 83 to 86Homes with phone 8% 19% third graders cell phonesStates allowing medical marijuana 0 19States allowing gay marriage 0 9*Women in Congress 0 97

•*Plus D.C., two American Indian tribes. Maryland and Rhode Island recognize same sex marriages performed in other jurisdictions. California on a conditional basis.

2012 Elections- First Hindu in Congress, First Openly Gay U.S. Senator,

First Buddhist and Asian Female in Senate, First Vietnamese American U.S. Mayor

Part I Immigration and Fertility

U. S. IN THE …

19th Century through Mid 20th Century

Immigrants mostly from Europe

21st Century More diverse Immigrants

primarily from Latin America Asia

Immigrants

By 2050, 19% or one in five Americans an

immigrant, compared to one in eight (12%)

in 2005.

GATEWAY CITIES NewYorkPrimarily New York 1800’s thruearly1900’s

California & border states with Latinos & Asians

POPULATION GROWTH

U.S. population increasesby 2.5 million annually

immigration 1 million

80% non-white 70 % Latinos & Asians

birth rate 4 milliondeath rate 2.5 millionnet 1.5 million

U. S. Foreign Born by Place of Birth 2010

Minnesota’s Immigrant Population 43.8% entered 2000 or later Foreign born origins Minnesota U.S

Africa 20.2 % 4.5% (including Oceania)

Asia 37.2 % 28.2% Europe 11.1 % 12.1% Latin America 27.4% 53.1% Northern America 3.6% 2.0% Oceania 0.5 %

Foreign Born Americans 2010, 39,956,000 million foreign-born in U. S. Foreign born 12.9% of population

Naturalized Citizens 17,476,000 Noncitizen 22,490,000

56.49% of foreign born live in: California (10,024,000) New York (4,206,000) Florida (3,441,000) Texas (3,829,000)

Examples of state increases: Nevada 105,000 to 498,000 1990-2010 North Carolina, 115,000 to 630,000 1990-2010 Minnesota 113,039 to 378,483 1990-2010*

*In 2010, 7.1 percent of Minnesota's total population were immigrants,

compared to 5.3 percent in 2000 and 2.6 percent in 1990.

U. S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey

MN’s Leading Countries of Foreign Birth

1990

Laos 12.7% Canada 9% Germany 7%

2010

Mexico 17.4% India 6.2% Vietnam 5.2%

Undocumented Immigrants Estimated 11,800,000 undocumented in 2008,

increase from 8,460,000 in 2005. 11,600,000 in 2010 and 11,500,000 in 2012 Net immigration from Mexico zero or reversed* 95,000 Minnesota 2009**

U. S. Department of Homeland Security, Office of Immigration Statistics, 2008, 2012

* Pew Research Center, Passel,J., Cohn, D., and Gonzolez-Barrera, A., May 2012 **Pew Hispanic Center

FERTILITY RATE SIGNIFICANCE

To maintain the status quo, 2.1 children per woman

One child each to replace the mother and father.

.1 children to provide for infant mortality

FERTILITY IN THE U. S.

U. S. among highest fertility rates in the industrialized world with 1.90 births per woman (2010), compared to 1.4 per woman in Europe. Rates declining since the latest recession.

U. S. Declining Fertility Rate

U. S. Fertility Rate Population Reference Bureau 2012

Part II Census Findings and Projections

ETHNIC/RACIAL REPRESENTATION IN THE U. S. POPULATION

Historically U. S. population predominantly white (European) American. Whites 80.3% of population 1990, 75.1% 2000, 72.4% 2010.

Annual White percentages decrease, while and Hispanic and Asian increase. 2050, whites projected a U. S. minority (47%).

50.4 % U.S. population younger than age 1 are minorities as of July 1, 2011

1990 2000 2010

Total U. S. Population 248,710,000 281,422,000 310,233,000

Whites188,425,000 194,553,000 246,630,000

Blacks 29,285,000 33,948,000 39,909,000

Latino 21,900,000 35,306,000 49,726,000

Asian/Pacific 7,265,000 11,502,000 15,007,000

Am. Ind., Eskimo, Aleut 1,959,000 2,475,956 2,932,248

Two/More Races N/A 4,602,000 5,499,000

U. S. Census Bureau

U.S. Population Growth

2011 Child Population by Race

United States

Non-Hispanic White alone

53%

Non-Hispanic Black alone

14%

Non-Hispanic American Indian and Alaskan Native alone

1%

Non-Hispanic Asian alone

4%

Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone

<.5%

Non-Hispanic Two or More Race Groups

4%

Hispanic or Latino

24%

Total less than 18

100%

Minnesota

Non-Hispanic White alone

73%

Non-Hispanic Black alone

7%

Non-Hispanic American Indian and Alaskan Native alone

1%

Non-Hispanic Asian alone

5%

Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone

<.5%

Non-Hispanic Two or More Race Groups

5%

Hispanic or Latino

8%

Total less than 18

100%

U. S. Public School Enrollments 1990-2010

2010 Census Findings

Hispanics moving to less traditional states:

Arkansas (6.6%) North Carolina (8.6%) Idaho (11.5%, a 75 percent increase from

2000) Georgia (9.1%) Minnesota (4.9%)U. S. Census Bureau

Center of U.S. Population

2010 Texas County, Mo. 1950 Richmond County, IL 1900 Bartholomew County, IN 1850 Wirt County, WV 1790 Kent County, MD

Part III A New (2000)Census Category: Blended Americans

Anti-miscegenation Laws Laws criminalizing marriage and intimate

relations between races After WWII and by 1950’s states repealed,

except in the south Loving v. Virginia (1967) Supreme court

declare law unconstitutional. In all former slave owning states plus Oklahoma.

Mixed Marriages

1980, 6.7% mixed race or ethnicity marriages 2010, 15%

Males Females

Whites 9% no gender difference Blacks 17% 24% 9% Hispanics 26% no gender difference Asians 28% 17% 36%

Increase from 1980, White 2X, Blacks, 3X, Hispanics and Asians no change

Passel, J.S., Wang, W., and Taylor, P., Pew Research Center June 4, 2010

Mixed Marriage Findings West 22%, South 14%, Northeast 13%,

Midwest, 11% Hawaii leads all states with 42% 43% U. S., a change for the better, 11% for

worst, 44% no difference Minorities, younger adults, college-educated

most positive attitudes towards mix marriagePassel, J.S., Wang, W., and Taylor, P., Pew Research Center June 4, 2010

Blended Americans

Census Bureau’s new category in 2000: two or more races

1.6% of 2000 census (4,602,000) 1.8% of 2010 census (5,499,000) Demographers “less than actual,” with

increase mixed race marriages. Estimates of as many as 20% by 2050

Bryan Clay- Black, Japanese

Dwayne Johnson-Black/Samoan

Jimmy Smits- Dutch, Surinamese, Puerto Rican Mariah Carey-African American, Venezuelan, Irish

Cameron Diaz- Cuban, Cherokee, English, German

Keanu Reeves-White, Chinese, Hawaiian

Franklin Ramón Chang-Diaz Former astronaut Former Director,

Advanced Space Propulsion Lab, Johnson Space Center

Four doctorates Costa Rican/Chinese

Bill Richardson Former Governor of

New Mexico Former Energy

Secretary, Former U.N. Ambassador

Mexican, white

Mixed Race Children

Elodie/Sophie-English, German, Chinese, Algerian, Hawaiian, Welsh, Spanish, French

Quinn/Jack-Chinese, Welsh, Hawaiian, Spanish, Cherokee Indian, German, Japanese

Part IV Poverty in the United States

Poverty Concerns The Economy and Poverty Poverty and students Poverty and special education classes

U.S. POVERTY ISSUES

Expectant mothers in poverty less medical coverage and maternity leave

Greater likelihood of “at risk” births Increased stress due to poverty Children possible poor nutrition, marginal

medical care and cognitive stimulation Increased environmental risks & hazards

(e.g. lead poisoning)

2010 Children in Poverty

2010 Poverty Thresholds, Selected Family Types

  Single Individual

Under 65 years  $ 11,344

65 years & older  $ 10,458

  Single ParentOne child  $ 15,030

Two children  $ 17,568

  Two Adults

No children  $ 14,602

One child  $ 17,552

Two children  $ 22,113

Three children  $ 26,023

2012 U. S. Poverty Threshold Family of Four: $23,050

28.4% of American Indians and Alaska Natives were in poverty in 2010.

SOURCE: U.S. Census, American Indian and Alaska Native Heritage Month: November 2011

U.S.Census, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2010, Report P60, n. 238, Table B-2, pp. 68-73.

Children Under 18 Living in Poverty, 2010

Category Number PercentAll children under 18 16, 401,000 22.0

White only, non-Hispanic 5,002,000 12.4

Black 4,817,000 38.2Hispanic 6,110,000 35.0Asian 547,000 13.6

Immigrants and Poverty 19.9% of immigrants compared to 13.5%

native born lived in poverty 43.6% of immigrants, compared to 31.1% of

native born, live in or near poverty*. 59.2% of immigrant children under 18 yrs. live

in or near poverty 34.1% of foreign-born lack health insurance

compared to 13.8%of natives.

* near-poverty defined as income less than 200 percent of the poverty threshold

Part V Religious Changes

U.S. Congress 2011

Protestants 56.65% Catholic 29.20% Jewish 7.30% LDS (Mormon) 2.80%

2 Muslims (including Keith Ellison, MN 5th Congressional District)

2 Buddhists

0 No religious preference

Changing Religious Affiliations

1995 Preferences 2010 Preferences

(data from the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life 10/9/12)

Protestant 58%Roman Catholic 25%Orthodox Catholic 1%Jewish 2%LDS (Mormon) 2%None Given 12%

Implications of Changing Demographics

Population statistics fluid and dynamic, changing continuously with population shifts

In the next two decades we can expect more immigrants, bringing ethnic and religious changes

Immigrants and other groups move into communities seemingly overnight

PREPARING FOR CHANGES

Teacher education programs must continue to: Infuse multicultural education training into their

curriculums Prepare candidates to teach students from diverse

backgrounds with appropriate practicum experiences

Help develop religious as well as racial/ethnic sensitivity

SCHOOL DISTRICT RESPONSES

To respond to the demographic changes, school districts must : Continually monitor real and projected demographic

changes to anticipate rather than simply react Expanded facilities and recruit diverse faculty and

staff for increasing numbers of diverse students Develop bilingual or ESL programs Provide in-service training to help teachers to adjust

for differential language, learning and communication styles, and interracial relationships