Challenges in Urban Meteorology

A Forum for Users and Providers

September 21-23 , 2004

Dr. Sharon LeDuc, Deputy DirectorNational Climatic Data Center

NOAA’s National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service

Weather and climate sensitive industries account for more that 1/3

of the Nation’s GDP or $3 trillion

-Often, this sensitivity is related to urban areas

-Better understanding of the linkages is key to enhancing benefits to society

Urban Economic Impact Examples• Hurricanes:

• Wildfires

• Ice Storms

• Heat Waves

• Blizzards

• Air Traffic Delays

• Construction/Building Safety

• Air Pollution/Haze

The End

Hurricane Isabel – September 2003 Urban Economic Impacts DC Metro Area

Impacts

• Two million lost riders to the Metro

– $2.6 million loss revenue

• 530,000 lost electric customers– $40 million loss revenue

• Two days of lost employment– 2.8 million employees affected– $632.8 million in revenue loss.

Source: Economic Statistics for NOAA, April 2004–Third Edition

NOAA Data Used

GOES Image-Used to track/predict storm movement & strength

Rainfall estimates-Used to assesspost flood damages

Ice Storms – 1990s Urban Economic Impacts Northeast and Southeast U.S.

Impacts Costliest ice storms

in U.S. history

– Northeast U.S.• Jan. 1998 • > $1.4 billion damages

– Southeast U.S.• in Feb. 1994 • > $3 billion damages

Source: Economic Statistics for NOAA, April 2004–Third Edition

NOAA Data Used

Freezing Rain/IceStorm CDROM -# days/hours with freezing rain-ice storm losses-Used to improve design standards

Average # hours ofFreezing Rain (ASOS/1st order In-situ network)

Freezing Rain and Ice Storms

Wildfires Urban Economic Impacts Oakland, CA

Impacts Costliest wildfire of the

past forty years – Oakland Firestorm

• October 1991• $3.5 billion damages• 25 deaths

Source: Economic Statistics for NOAA, April 2004–Third Edition

NOAA Data Used

Polar Orbiter Satellite Image – Fires / Smoke in S. California -Used to track/predict fires affecting populated areas

Heat WavesUrban Economic Impacts Many U.S. Cities

Impacts Heat Waves result in many

deaths usually in urban areas

Recent impacts Deaths– 2000 SE U.S. 140 – 1999 E U.S 502 – 1998 TX to NC 200 – 1995 Chicago > 500 – 1988 central to east U.S. 5-10,000

– 1980 central to east U.S. 10,000

Source: Billion Dollar U.S Weather Disasters 1980-2003

NOAA Data Used

Analysis of the max. temperature at Chicago, IL

Used in: - anticipating future heat wave events - monitoring long-term event changes

BlizzardsUrban Economic Impacts Many U.S. Cities

Impacts Blizzards result in severe

urban impacts related to safety and transportation

Notable Examples:– March 1993 “Storm of the Century”

• Eastern seaboard cities• Snow 2-4 feet, high winds• 270 deaths; $7.6 billion damages

– Dec 26, 1947 New York City Snow• 25.5 inches; most ever Central Park • 27 deaths• 30K people labored for 1 week to

remove snow; cost $6 million

Source: Billion Dollar U.S Weather Disasters 1980-2003

NOAA Data Used

Snowfall return period statistics analysis

Used by: - FEMA for Federal Disaster declarations - Urban budget planning for snow removal

Air Traffic Delays Urban Economic Impacts

Impacts Air Traffic Delays

– $6 billion is lost in economic efficiencies each year

– 70% attributed to weather

Source: Economic Statistics for NOAA, April 2004–Third Edition

NOAA Data Used

NEXRAD Level II(Severe Tstorms affecting airports)-Used in avoiding/ understanding severe weather

Wind RoseAtlanta, GA-Used in runway orientation

Construction/Building Safety Urban Economic Impacts

Impacts

Fire Safety– Inefficient heating systems are

urban building fire safety risks– Climate data used to design for

extreme cold events.

Building Design– Climate data used in the design

for improving the quality of air which is passed through building ventilation systems

NOAA Data Used

Engineering Weather Data CDROM (Ventilation/Infiltration load in building design)

-Used by architects and engineers in designing fresh air circulation to create “healthy” buildings

Air Pollution/Haze Urban Economic Impacts

Impacts Air Pollution

– Increase and exacerbate respiratory diseases

Haze

– Lower visibility affects airline safety

NOAA Data Used

Visibility chart (probability of no obstruction)

-Used in Haze analysis/ forecasting