Challenges

and ChoicesSan Francisco Bay Area Long

Range Plan

Therese W. McMillanDeputy Executive Director, Policy

Metropolitan Transportation Commission

Siemens Mobility Press Tour

February 2, 2008

Now to the Year 2035Now to the Year 2035

Challenges• Growth• Cost of Housing• Cost of Transportation• Health• Community Stability• Sustainability• Climate Change

Choices • Planning for a

Better Future• Targets• Infrastructure • Focused Growth• Transport Pricing• Assessing the Difference• Moving Forward

GrowthGrowth• Nearly 2 million

more people

• 1.8 million new jobs

• Need for over 700,000 new homes

• A tripling in freight volumes

C h a l l e n g e s

Cost of HousingCost of Housing

C h a l l e n g e s

Median Home Prices, 2007

First-time Homebuyer

Growth in Interregional Commuting2000-2030

+83%+83%

+64%+64%

++9090%%

+120%+120%

Cost of TransportationCost of Transportation

• Longer distances

• Increasing delay

103% Increase in Delay, 2000 - 2030

200

400

600

800

2000 2030

Dai

ly D

elay

(00

0s o

f h

ou

rs)

C h a l l e n g e s

103% Increase in Delay2000-2030

Community StabilityCommunity Stability• Distressed communities in

the region’s core

• Concentrations of poverty

• Urban and suburban violence

• Schools in crisis

• Growing income gap

• Fear of gentrification and

displacement

United Way

Neighborhoods with Concentrated PovertyC h a l l e n g e s

CO2 Per Capita

Bay Area

World

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Metric Tons/Year

CO2 Per Capita

Bay Area

World

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Metric Tons/Year

Climate ChangeClimate Change• Impact on Bay Area

• Rising sea levels

• More hot, smoggy days

• Vanishing Sierra snow pack; Water shortages

• More wild fires with pollution

• Bay Area’s impact on the globe

• Per capita carbon footprint 3 times the world average

• 50% from transportation

C h a l l e n g e s

Planning for a Better FuturePlanning for a Better Future

C h o i c e s

REDUCE CONGESTION

IMPROVEAFFORDABILITY

REDUCE EMISSIONS

& VMT

Infrastructure

EconomyEconomy EnvironmentEnvironment EquityEquity

GOALSGOALS

TARGETSTARGETS

Pricing & Focused Growth

STRATEGIESSTRATEGIES

Infrastructure Infrastructure Freeway Operations

Capital cost: $600 million

• Complete ramp metering and

traffic operations system

• Limited carpool lane gap closures

• Complete traffic signal coordination

C h o i c e s

Infrastructure Infrastructure High-Occupancy/Toll (HOT) Lanes and Bus Enhancements

Capital cost: $10 billion

• Complete HOV/HOT network

• Expand express and local bus

• Park & ride lots

• Transit hubs

• Direct ramps

• Priority treatments to

increase speed and reliability

C h o i c e s

Infrastructure Infrastructure Regional Rail and Ferry

Capital cost: $60 billion

• Regional Rail

• Improvements and extensions

• Build on California High-Speed Rail

• Ferry

• New and enhanced routes

C h o i c e s

Focused GrowthFocused Growth

• Alternative Land-Use Scenario

• For “what-if” analysis

• More concentrated and transit-oriented

than Projections 2007

• Better jobs-housing balance

C h o i c e s

Transport PricingTransport Pricing

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Parkingsurcharge

Congestionsurcharge

Auto operatingCarbon/VMT tax

Current autooperating charge

• Pricing package increases auto operating costs five-fold, with focus on peak congested times

Cen

ts p

er m

ile (

2007

$)

Note: Represents cost for typical commute trip. Does not reflect discounts for low-income travelers.

C h o i c e s

Cost Increase for Typical Commute

Assessing the DifferenceAssessing the Difference

Environment: Reduce CO2 to 52,000 tons per day

C h o i c e s

Note: Trend assumes current state laws and regulations, including fuel efficiency standards called for under state law passed in 2002, though currently in litigation (AB 1493, Pavley, 2002)

Trend

Best Infrastructure

2035 Target

Add Pricing and Land Use

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

To

ns

pe

r d

ay

of

CO

2 (

x1

00

0)

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 20352000

Assessing the DifferenceAssessing the DifferenceEnvironment:

Reduce fine particulate emissions (PM2.5) to 18 tons per day

Note: Trend assumes current state laws and regulations that would reduce emissions from heavy-duty diesel engines (trucks)

C h o i c e s

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

To

ns

PM

2.5

pe

r d

ay

Trend

Best Infrastructure

2035 Target

Add Pricing and Land Use

Assessing the DifferenceAssessing the DifferenceEnvironment:

Reduce coarse particulate emissions (PM10) to 38 tons per day

C h o i c e s

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

To

ns

PM

10 p

er

da

y

Trend

Best Infrastructure

2035 Target

Add Pricing and Land Use

Assessing the DifferenceAssessing the DifferenceEnvironment: Reduce daily VMT to 17.1 miles per person

C h o i c e s

16.0

16.5

17.0

17.5

18.0

18.5

19.0

19.5

20.0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Da

ily

Ve

hic

le M

ile

s T

rav

ele

d p

er

Ca

pit

a

Trend

Best Infrastructure

2035 Target

Add Pricing and Land Use

Assessing the DifferenceAssessing the DifferenceEconomy:

Reduce congestion delay per person to 21.3 hours a year

C h o i c e s

Trend

Freeway Operations

2035 Target

Add Pricing and Land Use

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

An

nu

al

Ve

hic

le H

ou

rs o

f D

ela

y p

er

Ca

pit

a

Assessing the DifferenceAssessing the DifferenceEquity:

Reduce share of earnings low- and lower middle-income households spend on housing and transportation to 61%*

* Includes households with annual income less than $70,000

** Alternative land use assumes direct housing subsidies to low- and lower middle-income households totaling $2.1 billion annually

C h o i c e s

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Pricing (with Land Use**)

Trend

2035 Target

Land Use**

Moving ForwardMoving Forward

Summary Conclusions

• Requires an integrated strategy• No single silver bullet

• Policies and investments must reinforce

one another

• Infrastructure alone is not

nearly enough

C h o i c e s

Moving ForwardMoving Forward

• Pricing and Focused Growth can

make a big difference

• Pricing near-term; land use longer-term

• Must design pricing to address equity

• Auto trips diverted with pricing and

focused growth

• + 2.1 million bike/pedestrian trips

• +700,000 new transit trips

• Need to be aggressive ─

Are we ready?

C h o i c e s

Moving ForwardMoving ForwardBut we still need more if we want to meet ambitious targets

• Fuel efficiency and alternative fuels

• Telecommuting and employer

strategies

• Other changes in attitude

and behavior

C h o i c e s

Moving ForwardMoving Forward

Next Steps

• Develop comprehensive, realistic strategy

for pricing and land use changes

• Create a supporting investment package

• Develop policy-based criteria to

evaluate projects

• Move forward with vision

and purpose

C h o i c e s