ChallengesChallengesChallengesChallengesLoksabha

‘09

Present Civil SocietyPresent Civil SocietyStrengths Motivation, source of hope, few small successesWeakness Emotional-zero understanding of politics No ground strength(little in Juhu-Bandra) No ability to work togetherOpportunity Anger against existing political parties Define alternative political culture Bring together NBVThreat Jumping into fray w/o resources, agenda,

understanding Marginalize and become irrelevant, impotent

again

Votes polled - MumbaiVotes polled - Mumbai

2004 Total 83,10,541 - Polled 39,29,708

(47%) Cong-NCP – 5 seats- 19,39,524 (49%)

BJP –SS -1 seat – 17,43,108 (44%)

1999Total 84,45,768 -Polled 37,97,889

(45%) Cong-others – 1 seat- 14,81,563 (39%)

BJP –SS -5 seat – 18,15,710 (48%)

Polarization increasing (93% in 2004, 87% in ’99)

Mumbai South Mumbai South COLABA, MUMBADEVI, MALABAR COLABA, MUMBADEVI, MALABAR

HILL,BYCULLAHILL,BYCULLAWORLI, SEWRIWORLI, SEWRI

2004 – total 6,20,431, polled 2,74,360 (44%) Milind Deora INC 1,37,956 (50%) Jayawanti Mehta BJP 1,27,710

(47% ) Amin Solkar SP 3,957 BSP- 1,701

1999- total 7,19,281, polled 3,03,022 (42%)

Jayawanti Mehta BJP 1,44,945 (48%) Murli Deora INC 1,34,702 (44%) Aziz Lalani SP 19,128  (6%)

Deposit threshold – 50,000 votes

Mumbai South -notesMumbai South -notes1. 97% in ‘04 and 92% in ‘99 to main parties

2. Cong - Muslim votes-Mohd Ali area, slums – Colaba,Cuffe Parade

3. BJP candidate - Middle class Marathi (SS), Guj, Rajasthani votes

4. SP, BSP has tried unsuccessfully to get Muslim votes

5. Non-vote bank (NVB) has never voted

6. No citizen movement here

New scenario1. Delimitation has brought Parel and other areas in Mumbai South

2. This time Mohan Rawle(SS)- winning from 17 years- will have advantage as slum votes, mill workers will be added

3. Added area does not have strong Cong leader – Sachin Ahir (NCP) will not work for Milind.

4. MNS may not cut into SS too much as Marathis may back Rawle

5. Muslim votes will still go to Cong – SP, BSP wont have impact

6. Arun Gawli may cut into Cong votes

7. NVB may not come out to vote

NO CHANCE

Mumbai South CentralMumbai South Central MAHIM, WADALA, SION – KOLIWADA,DHARAVI,ANUSHAKTI NAGAR MAHIM, WADALA, SION – KOLIWADA,DHARAVI,ANUSHAKTI NAGARCHEMBURCHEMBUR

2004 – total 7,04,452, polled 3,47,976 (49%)

Mohan Rawale SS 1,28,536 (37%) Sachin Ahir NCP 1,06,348 (31%) Arun Gawli ABHS 92,210 (26%)

1999- total 812576, polled 369130 (45%) , Mohan Rawale SS 176323 (48%) A Majeed Memon SP 97287 (26%) Dada Samant BBM 77747 (21%)

Deposit threshold – 60,000 votes

Mumbai South Central-Mumbai South Central-notesnotes

1. Dharavi is strong for Eknath Gaikwad with Mohan Rawale moving

2. Strong Marathi base for SS3. Non-vote bank (NVB) has never voted4. No citizen movement here

New scenario1. Delimitation has brought Parel and other

areas in Mumbai South

NO CHANCE

Mumbai North CentralMumbai North CentralKURLA, BANDRA – EAST. BANDRA – WEST, VILE PARLE. CHANDIVILIKURLA, BANDRA – EAST. BANDRA – WEST, VILE PARLE. CHANDIVILI

2004 – total 11,17,487, polled 5,14,598 (46%)

Eknath Gaikwad INC 2,56,282 (50%) Manohar Joshi SS 2,42,953 (47%)

1999- total 812576, polled 369130 (45%) , Manohar Joshi SS 2,94,935 (56%) Raja Dhale BBM 1,25,940 (24% ) Adv B C Kamble IND 56,684 (11%)

Deposit threshold – 80,000 votes

Mumbai North Central-Mumbai North Central-notesnotes

1. Priya Dutt will get almost all slum votes2. Shifting of Sanjay Nirupam will improve Cong

chances3. Madhukar Sarpotdar will not get middle class votes4. Sure shot chances for Priya5. Non-vote bank (NVB) can be a factor if civil society

gets its act together6. Reasonable civil societyNew scenario1. Delimitation has broken Bandra into South Central

and Andheri in NW

CHANCE- meagre

Mumbai North EastMumbai North EastMANKHURD, GHATKOPAR – EAST, GHATKOPAR – WEST ,VIKHROLIMANKHURD, GHATKOPAR – EAST, GHATKOPAR – WEST ,VIKHROLIBHANDUP,MULUNDBHANDUP,MULUND

2004 – total 19,74,560 , polled 9,25,681 (47%)

Gurudas Kamat INC 493420 (53%) Kirit Somaiya BJP 394020 (43%)

1999- total 1990340, polled 929549 (47%) Kirit Somaiya BJP 4,00,436 (43%) Gurudas Kamat INC 3,93,160 (42%) Dr Ram Manohar NCP 1,02,513 (11%)

Deposit threshold – 1,55,000 votes

Mumbai North East-notesMumbai North East-notes

1. Mulund is strong for Kirit – BJP2. Other areas are strong for Gurudas Kamat3. MNS may cut into BJP votes4. High chances for Cong5. Non-vote bank (NVB) irrelevant6. No citizen movement

New scenario1. Delimitation has lost Chembur etc in this

Constituency

NO CHANCE

Mumbai North WestMumbai North WestANDHERI WANDHERI WEST, EST, ANDHERI EAST, VERSOVA, JOGESHWARI EASTANDHERI EAST, VERSOVA, JOGESHWARI EASTGOREGAON, DINDOSHIGOREGAON, DINDOSHI

2004 – total 15,15,745, polled 7,47,726 (49%)

Sunil Dutt INC 3,85,755 (52%) Sanjay Nirupam SS 3,38,397 (45%)

1999- total 1553015, polled 713586 (46%) Sunil Dutt INC 3,66,669 (51%) Madhukar Sarpotdar SS 2,81,130 (39%) Ramesh Dube NCP 41,947 (6%)

Deposit threshold – 1,20,000 votes

Mumbai North West-notesMumbai North West-notes1. Sanjay Nirupam probable Cong Candidate2. Subhash Desai will not get middle class votes3. Good chance for Sanjay Nirupam4. Non-vote bank (NVB) can be a factor if civil society

gets its act together5. Reasonable civil society6. Weak candidatesNew scenario1. Delimitation has broken Bandra into South Central

and Andheri in NW

CHANCE – possible to make some impact

Mumbai NorthMumbai NorthMALAD WEST, KANDIVILI EAST,CHARKOP, BORIVALIMALAD WEST, KANDIVILI EAST,CHARKOP, BORIVALIDAHISAR, MAGHATHANE (POISUR)DAHISAR, MAGHATHANE (POISUR)

2004 – total 23,77,866, polled 11,19,367 (47%)

Govinda INC 5,59,763 (50%)Ram Naik BJP 51,14,92 (46%)

1999- total 2222240, polled 954260 (43%) Ram Naik BJP 5,17,941 (54%)Chandrakant Gosalia INC 3,63,805 (38%)

Deposit threshold – 1,75,000 votes

Mumbai North -notesMumbai North -notes

1. Interesting fight, do not know who will be Cong candidate

2. Ram Naik is very strong and been winning all through

3. Congress discredited with Govinda’s election4. Non-vote bank (NVB) can be a factor if civil

society gets its act together5. Zero civil society movementNew scenario1. Delimitation has broken part of original

constituency

NO CHANCE

Some quick infoSome quick info

Security Deposit lost < 1/6th of polled votes

Maximum spending – 25 lakhsNot necessary to get registered Regd parties will get recognised only

if ◦5 years activity, plus1 elected out of 25

in General Election or 1 out of 30 in assembly, or

◦Votes should be 6% of total votes polled

Quick factsQuick factsIn recent Delhi Assembly polls 90-97% lost

deposit, BPD party of 20 IITians, 15000 members and good donations got total 162 votes

Post 26/11, in an epoll for AP, as on 11th feb ‘09◦ Loksatta which is 13 year old, has 600000

members (most internet savvy)and excellent agenda and leadership has got 49 votes out of 2458(3%)

Electioneering Electioneering Offices

Each constituency consists of minimum 4 constituencies, thus Four PR offices One head office

Manpower – for 30 days – 85 volunteers 10 volunteers per office – 50 nos 25 volunteers with candidates 10 volunteers working in back office

Manpower – for 10 days – 1000 volunteers Volunteers to give voter slip and campaign – 1: 1500

Manpower – on Election day – 3000 volunteers 400 booths x 5 volunteers 1000 volunteers to get 300 voters each

PublicityPublicity

Media & Endorsement by Stars, VIPs and prominent personalities

Materials◦ Voter slips – 15 lakh◦ Flags / Symbols – 10,000 nos◦ Posters – 500 – 1,000 nos◦ Appeal ledgers – 30,00,000 nos◦ CDs , presentation team and equipments◦ Badges, T Shirts - 1000◦ Other Items

FundsFundsOffice Establishment – Rs 5 lakhsOffice Operation (day to day) – Rs 3 lakhsPublicity materials – Rs 30 lakhsVolunteer expenses (Travel, food, out-of-pocket) – Rs 3 lakhsLogistic expenses, incl. election day – Rs 5

lakhsMiscelleneous – Rs 4 lakhs

Total – Rs 50 lakhs

Case studyCase study

Present MLAS (4 nos)

Congress Suresh Shetty Baldev Khoja

Shivsena Gajanan Kirtikar Subhash Desai 

Present Corporators (37 nos)Shiv Sena 16BJP 3Congress 13NCP 2Samajwadi Party 1MNS 1Ind. 1

NOTE: 97% of the polled votes went to the main

two candidates, only 23574 votes went to the rest

 Other Candidates1.Loksatta Party has already made Public

announcement of putting up all six candidates.

2.PPI, Jago alliance will put up a Candidates.

3.There may be around 25 party candidates including SP, BSP, many new parties, rebel candidates etc

4.Around 25 / 30 independent candidates5.Therefore CITIZEN CANDIDATE’S will

have to fight against all these forces. 

Our Resourcesa) ManpowerAs far as Manpower resource is concerned except

Juhu, we don’t have any assured organizations and volunteers. Juhu and Bandra volunteers do not think that this time Loksabha is the right time and place for putting up candidate.

 b)Finances Regarding financial Resources we will need to assess

separately. c)MediaHow much Media help we can genuinely generate will

be very decisive?

Please note Lok Satta with all its Funds, P.R. and Clout could get very minimal publicity for J.P’s press conference.

 The media support will have to be consistent during

the entire campaign in order to be effective. 

d)Celebrity endorsement

This is one important factor which can play major role if we get the proper backing.

 

e)Back office

We need to study the voters list Building by Building.

 

We need contacts in each Ward / building to give us links to the voters.

f) Management

A proper war zone needs to be created with some excellent managers who understand ground situations

Other parties - ShivsenaOther parties - ShivsenaReleased 10 page booklet (50000

copies) saying that Voter list is its Bhagwad geeta

Aim of booklet◦Knowing all voters in one’s division◦Meeting each voter again and again◦Bringing floating voters towards the party◦Making our voter list error-free◦Getting voter cards to all our voters◦Our voters to have 100% voting◦Increasing number of our voters from last

elections

Shivsena - IIShivsena - IIContains instructions on the voter listUnderstanding voters’ list w.r.t errorsTraining and group activity on reading

and deciding on activity.Command structure for activitiesBehavior pattern during training

sessions Campaigning processInformation gatheringConverting voters to SSMarking 100% SS voters to 0% SS

votersEtc. etc

He that fights and runs away, may turn and fight another day; but he that is in battle slain, will never rise to fight again.

-Taciturn

The unforgivable crime is soft hitting. Do not hitat all if it can be avoided; but never hit softly. -Theodore Roosevelt