Challenge on Population Centered Development:

Toward a Bright New Prosperity

By:Dr. Sugiri Syarief, MD, MPA

National Population and Family Planning Board

• The focus on population issues particularly population growth has been lost, although global population is projected to grow to between eight and 10.5 billion by 2050;

• 99 percent of the global population growth till 2050 will take place in developing countries;

• More than 90 percent of population growth in developing countries will be concentrated in the poorest countries;

• The International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo, declared to “meet the family planning needs as soon as possible and seek to provide universal access to a full range of safe and reliable family planning methods;

Introduction

• Following the ICPD, funding and attention for family planning collapsed;

• The use of contraception in many poor countries has stalled and it affected to birth rates;

• The unmet need for family planning also increased. Over 125 to 200 million people would like to be able to control their fertility but are not using contraception;

• Serious long term implication, once population growth gains a certain speed it is difficult to slow.

Continued…

Global Population Trends• Rapid population increased

is starting in 1950;

• Before the 20th century, world population was 1 billion and it became 2 billion in 200 years later;

• Now the addition of a population of 1 billion only occurs below 20 years;

• In October 2011 the world population reached 7 billion;

• According to the medium projection variant is expected to reach 8 billion in 2025 and 9 billion in 2045;

• The global population growth rate peaked in the period from 1965 to 1970 at 2 per cent. For 2005-2010 was 1.17 per cent per year, and it is projected to reach a low 0.36 per cent per year in 2045-2050;

• Population trends vary at the country level;

• Population in developed countries will slightly increase from the current 1.23 billion to 1.25 billion in 2050 due to net in-migration;

continued

• The population of the least developed and developing countries are growing;

• Population in the least-developed and developing countries will increase from 2.2 billion to 5.74 billion to 7.9 billion inhabitants in 2050;

• From 2009 to 2050, population in developing countries is projected to increase by 2.3 billion, from 5.6 billion to 7.9 billion;

• The population of the least developed countries is expected to double, reaching 1.7 billion in 2050.

continued

• Three possible future paths of world population until the year 2300 illustrate the implications of extremely small differences in average family size on population size over time.

• These high, medium and low experimental scenarios are assumed to maintain, after an initial drop to lower levels, average family sizes of 2.35, 2.05 and 1.85 children per mother.

continued

The impact of Population Dynamics on Millennium Development Goals

The New Path of Global Development Strategy• Current economic and political challenges are the

sustainability of the environment, the stabilization of the world's population and the end of extreme poverty;

• Major discussion of development during 1990s and 2000 are Rio Earth Summit in 1992, ICPD Cairo in 1994 and New York Millennium Summit in 2000;

• Rio Earth Summit brought crucial environmental treaties. ICPD Cairo emphasizes the critical relationship of population aspects such as births, deaths, sexual and reproductive health services, education, gender equity and others with sustainable development. The Summit committed to fight extreme poverty;

• The eight Millennium Development Goals: (1) Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, (2) Achieve universal primary education, (3) Promote gender equality and empower women, (4) Reduce child mortality, (5) Improve maternal health, (6) Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases, (7) Ensure environmental sustainability, (8) international partnership;

• The Rio declaration, the ICPD program of action and the Millennium Development Goals are our promise for sustainable development. The future generations have the hope to live much better to the current generation and not worse. The promise that the condition of the planet we live did not become worse.

Continued

The Progress of MDGs Achievement

• The United Nations Secretary General stated that the eight Millennium Development Goals were a breakthrough - a blueprint for ending extreme poverty - achievable targets and timetables - a framework That all partners;

• More development success stories than ever before. However the picture is mixed;

• What has been outlined and achieved by the MDGs must be maintained. There is still much work to be done. Many achievements are still fragile.

Population and the Achievement of MDGs

• Population dynamics is not the only cause, or even the leading cause but a critical factor;

• Population growth and high fertility rates are strongly linked to the MDGs. In many regions, the MDGs are simply not attainable without a greater focus on slowing population growth;

• The former Secretary General of the United Nations, Mr. Koffi Annan Stated that the Millennium Development Goals, particularly the eradication of extreme poverty and hunger, cannot be achieved if questions of population and reproductive health are not squarely addressed. And that means stronger efforts to promote women’s rights, and greater investment in education and health, including family planning;

• Prof. Jeffrey Sachs, the advisory of the Secretary General of the United Nations for MDGs explained three important things to achieve the MDGs, first, developing sustainable technologies that improve the welfare of mankind but a low impact on environmental damage. Second, maintaining the stability of population growth mainly in developing and underdeveloped countries to synergize economic growth with environmental sustainability. Third, assisting countries or groups of a very poor to escape from the 'poverty trap'.

Continued

Integrating Population Issues into National Development Plan

Strategies

Why it is important to integrate population issues to national development strategies

• Many policy makers have a false view of population. First, the view simplifies and breaks population problems into its aspects. Second, the view to see population problems in the scope of micro - they are view either as a national or local issue;

• The problems of population and development are basic problems in providing a better living condition for the human race: for this generation and the next;

• Population dynamics should be well integrated in the national development policies and strategies; both population and development planning affect each other reciprocally;

• The ideal goal is to develop a population to be qualified human resources via population influencing policies. At the same time to formulate the development policies and strategies promptly to be responsive to the population dynamics;

• To achieve that goal, there needs leaders who posses long-termed vision, a comprehensive approach and know well the social-cultural aspect of the people.

Continued

Lesson Learned from Indonesian Experience

• Indonesia’s economic takeoff was preceded by a fall in the fertility rates;

• When Indonesia decided to introduce the family planning program, many people showed skepticism. Indonesia was too poor, too rural, and lack of infrastructure which included health infrastructure;

• The former President of Indonesia, Soeharto (1966-1998) views that without stabilizing the number and growth of population, the economic growth cannot be sustained and influence the people’s welfare;

Continued

• Two major population policies were population growth’s management through family planning and population distribution through population resettlement and regional planning;

• The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) dropped from 5.6 in 1965-70 to 5.2 in 1970-75 to 4.7 in 1975-80 to 4.11 in 1980-85. Currently the Total Fertility Rate is around 2.3;

• The success of the Indonesian government in implementing the population program was supported by several factors among them are political support of the higher government officials to the lower level, to include stakeholders such as religious leadership and the effective management of the program;

Continued

• Indonesia achieved well positioned for its golden period of economic growth in 1985 to 1995, when the income per ca pita grew by 70 per cent;

• The family planning program has successfully averted around 100 million births according to the Indonesian population projection made in early 1970;

• An acceptable population growth rate translates into a higher gross domestic product (GDP) per ca pita, and this translates into higher incomes, higher savings, and higher investments;

• The combination of effective population growth management and rapid economic growth was the key in triggering poverty eradication;

Continued

• Population living in poverty was reduced from 40 per cent in the late seventies to around 11 per cent in the mid-nineties (before the Asian Crisis), or an overall reduction of almost 75 per cent in two decades;

• The economic crisis in 1997 followed by political turbulence and the change of government system from centralized into decentralized, have influenced the performance of family planning program. However the government of Indonesia is still committed to reach the stable population;

• Under the current long term development plan (2005-2025), it is targeted that Total Fertility Rate of 2.1 will be reached in 2014 and then maintain until 2025.

• The problems of humanity in the future will be the problem of the seizing of energy resources, food and water;

• Technologically breakthroughs may overcome these problems but the headways of technology may become their own obstacles, if are not supported by the implementation of population policies;

• Democracy, rights based approach, governmental decentralization, and the increase of the role of civil society, globalization and economic liberalization are huge obstacles in the implementation of population centered development at this time and in the future;

• The measure of the success of development at this time is more dominated by a more traditional economic thinking which focuses on economic growth, income per ca pita which includes GNP or GDP;

End Note

• The need for a revolution to indicate the success of economic development from just the measure economic growth, GDP number or income per capita;

• The OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) by adopting eleven economic dimensions such as housing, income, jobs, community, education, environment, governance, health, life satisfaction, safety, work-life balance. This type of revolution will change the global views on how to measure the economic success of a country;

• The real challenge is the new thinking paradigm and success indicator on an economic development from the traditional view economic growth to a more comprehensive welfare - from growth to development.

Continued

Thank You