CFS 45 Ceres2030 Side Event...
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CFS 45 Ceres2030 Side Event Materials 1 CFS 45 Ceres2030 Side Event Materials Activity 1.1 Building Consensus on SDG2 Modeling Deliverable 1.1.l. Ceres2030 Side Event at CFS45 Due date October 2018 Leading Partner IFPRI Authors David Laborde; Jaron Porciello; Carin Smaller Contact information [email protected] Version 1.0 Status Public Abstract Materials for the Ceres2030 Side Event at CFS45 in Rome in October 2018. Materials include the flyer for the event, the list of attendance, the PowerPoint presented at the event, the displays used at the event, and PowerPoints used at related meetings at CFS45.
Transcript of CFS 45 Ceres2030 Side Event...
CFS 45 Ceres2030 Side Event Materials
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CFS 45 Ceres2030 Side Event Materials
Activity 1.1 Building Consensus on SDG2 Modeling
Deliverable 1.1.l. Ceres2030 Side Event at CFS45 Due date October 2018 Leading Partner IFPRI Authors David Laborde; Jaron Porciello; Carin Smaller Contact information [email protected] Version 1.0 Status Public Abstract Materials for the Ceres2030 Side Event at CFS45 in Rome in October 2018.
Materials include the flyer for the event, the list of attendance, the PowerPoint presented at the event, the displays used at the event, and PowerPoints used at related meetings at CFS45.
CFS 45 Ceres2030 Side Event Materials
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LINK TO CFS 45 EVENT WEBPAGE
http://www.fao.org/cfs/home/plenary/cfs45/side-events/012/en/
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FLYER FOR THE EVENT
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Ceres2030: Sustainable solutions to end hunger Building the evidence base to achieve the SDGs
Date: Tuesday 16 October 2018 Time: 18h – 19h30 Location: Red Room, FAO, Rome, Italy Abstract: What is the most effective way to end hunger sustainably? And what would it cost? These are the two central questions of a new initiative by Cornell University, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD). This side event will present state-of-the-art modeling techniques and systematic review processes for how to measure and build consensus on sustainable development goal 2 (SDG2). Panelists will present initial findings followed by an interactive session with donors and participants. Panelists: Jaron Porciello, Cornell University David Laborde, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Ammad Bahalim, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Stefan Schmitz, Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), Germany Yusuf Jonga Hinna, Ambassador of Nigeria to Italy Phyllis Mends, Alternate Permanent Representative to FAO, IFAD, and WFP, Ghana Moderator: Carin Smaller, International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) Interpretation into French and Spanish.
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Ceres2030: solutions durables pour éradiquer la faim Sous-titre: Construire la base de preuves pour atteindre les ODD
Date: mardi 16 octobre 2018 Heure: 18h - 19h30 Lieu: Salle rouge, FAO, Rome, Italie Résumé: Quel est le moyen le plus efficace pour éradiquer durablement la faim? Et combien cela coûterait-il? Telles sont les deux questions au centre d’ une nouvelle initiative de l'Université Cornell, l'Institut international de recherche sur les politiques alimentaires (IFPRI) et l'Institut international du développement durable (IISD). Cet événement parallèle présentera des techniques avancées de modélisation et des processus d'examen systématique sur la manière de mesurer et de dégager un consensus sur l'objectif de développement durable 2 (ODD 2). Les panélistes présenteront les premières conclusions de l’étude qui sera suivi par une session interactive avec les donateurs et les participants. Panélistes: Jaron Porciello, Université de Cornell David Laborde, Institut international de recherche sur les politiques alimentaires (IFPRI) Ammad Bahalim, Fondation Bill & Melinda Gates Stefan Schmitz, Ministère fédéral de la Coopération économique et du Développement (BMZ), Allemagne Yusuf Jonga Hinna, Ambassadeur du Nigeria en Italie Phyllis Mends, Représentant permanent suppléant auprès de la FAO, du FIDA et du PAM, Ghana
Modératrice: Carin Smaller, Institut international du développement durable (IISD) Interprétation en français et espagnol.
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LIST OF ATTENDANCE
Attendees CFS 45 Ceres2030 Side Event, 16 October 2018
Rosa.Rolle @fao.org
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CERES2030 SIDE EVENT POWERPOINT
A Partnership
Ending Hunger: What would it cost? [2016]
• We are not on track
for SDG2
• But we can reach it if
we
• Have more resources
• Use better
interventions
• Realign priorities
To build consensus
on the interventions
needed to end
hunger and
transform the lives
of the world's
poorest farmers—
while protecting the
environment.
Our mission
We combine state-
of-the-art
modelling
techniques with
expert evidence to
support a donor
roadmap to achieve
SDG 2 (focusing on
targets 2.1, 2.3 and
2.4)
Our strategy
We are here
How do we develop
rigorous evidence?
The HLPF reported a dearth of
evidence for SDG 2.3 and 2.4
in a review of SDG 2 in 2017.
Ceres2030 conducted a
scoping study to evaluate this
claim and finds similar
results.
110105
64
37
SDG 2.3 SDG 2.4 Both 2.3 and
2.4
Neither 2.3
and 2.4
Systematic reviews &
meta analyses by
indicator
No
of s
tud
ies
Our framing question
What does the research baseline look like?
What do we mean by
evidence?
• Meeting the SDGs requires
“better” evidence
• Intervention effectiveness
information is scattered
• Research is abundant
• Many scientists are trained to
write research, not evidence
• Clearly defined standards of
evidence can help promote
common ground and
consensus building
Our workNature will publish 7-10
evidence reviews of “best
bets” for SDG 2.3 and 2.4
A global advisory board will
guide topic and author
selection
Baseline instruments from the
cost models will inform
intervention topics
We will generate media and
policy relevant materials from
the findings
Tools like risk of bias
assessment and protocols help
scientists to contribute
evidenceOur integrated dashboard
combines research across
siloes to generate better
analytics
Proactive Engagement strategy (2018)
Science
Policy
Donors
May: Policy and Science (Ithaca)
July: ICAE (Vancouver)
August: AAEA (Washington)
August: SDG2 (Wageningen)
October: Science Policy Forum (South Africa)
November: IFPRI/FAO (Thailand)
September: UNGA (New York)
September: G20/T20 (Buenos Aires)
October: CFS (Rome)
December: AERC Biannual Conference (Kenya)
April: SDG2 Roadmap Initiative (Washington D.C)
September: G7 food security working group (Ottawa)
October: SDG2 Roadmap Initiative (Rome)
Divider (just a line)
Belay Begashaw, Sustainable Development Goals Center for
Africa (Rwanda)
Catherine Bertini, Rockefeller Foundation Fellow, Chicago
Council (USA)
Joachim von Braun, Bonn University (Germany)
Ronnie Coffman, Cornell University (USA)
Boaz Keizire, Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA)
(Kenya)
Segenut Kelemu, International Centre of Insect Physiology
and Ecology (ICIPE) (Kenya)
Uma Lele, International Policy Expert (USA/India)
Leslie Lipper, Independent Science and Policy Council (FAO)
(Italy)
Lindiwe Majele Sibanda, Farmer and Food Systems Champion
Njuguna Ndung'u, African Economic Research Council
(Kenya)
Will Martin, International Food Policy and Research
Institute (IFPRI) (USA)
Prabhu Pingali, Cornell University (USA)
Martin Piñeiro, Director CEO Group, Chair, Committee on
Agriculture, Argentine Council of International Relations
Ruerd Ruben, Wageningen University
Maximo Torero, World Bank (USA)
Paul Winters, International Fund Agricultural Development
(IFAD) (Italy)
Scott Vaughan, International Institute for Sustainable
Development (IISD) (Canada)
Li Xiaoyun, China Agricultural University (China)
Journal Advisory Board
What is the impact on crop yields and water use when farmers use ICTs
to manage irrigation?
What is the mix of interventions that contribute to poverty reduction
while improving market access and off-farm employment opportunities?
What is the impact of early warning climate and famine systems on
crop loss and economic resilience?
Potential questions
Modeling Framework
Existing SDG2 Costing
Exercise
IFPRI Brief: Quantifying the cost and benefits of ending hunger and undernutrition: Examining the differences among
alternative approaches
265 billionAchieving Zero Hunger
(FAO, IFAD, WFP)
52 billionIMPACT (IFPRI)
11 billionMIRAGRODEP
(IFPRI-IISD)7 billionInvestment Framework
for Nutrition (World Bank)
Existing SDG2 Costing
Exercise
IFPRI Brief: Quantifying the cost and benefits of ending hunger and undernutrition: Examining the differences among
alternative approaches
265 billionAchieving Zero Hunger
(FAO, IFAD, WFP)
52 billionIMPACT (IFPRI)
11 billionMIRAGRODEP
(IFPRI-IISD)7 billionInvestment Framework
for Nutrition (World Bank)
What are the additional
transfers and investments
needed to end poverty and
hunger in all countries by
2030?
How much would hunger
decrease given investments
to achieve target yield
increases by 2030?
What is the minimum cost to
end hunger for vulnerable
households in all countries
by 2030?What is the minimum cost to
meet the World Health
Assembly (WHA) goals on
reducing undernutrition
by 2025?
Ceres2030 Model Overview
QUESTIONS
Targets for SDG 22.1 Target
2.3 Targets
2.4 Targets
Ceres2030 Model Overview
Achieve Goals,
Minimize Cost
QUESTIONS
Targets for SDG 22.1 Target
2.3 Targets
2.4 Targets
OUTPUT
Ceres2030 Model Overview
Achieve Goals,
Minimize Cost
QUESTIONS
Targets for SDG 22.1 Target
2.3 Targets
2.4 Targets
Total Costto accomplish SDG 2 targets
Optimal Funding
Allocationby kind of intervention
Micro LevelHousehold Variablesfood and nutrition security, agricultural productivity, …
Comprehensive Modelling
Micro LevelHousehold Variablesfood and nutrition security, agricultural productivity, …
Meso Level
Micro Level
Regional and Sectoral Variablesfood prices, wages, water use, …
Comprehensive Modelling
Micro LevelHousehold Variablesfood and nutrition security, agricultural productivity, …
Meso Level
Micro Level
Regional and Sectoral Variablesfood prices, wages, water use, …
Macro Level
Meso Level
Micro Level
International Macroeconomic VariablesInternational trade linkages, fiscal balance, …
Comprehensive Modelling
Micro LevelHousehold Variablesfood and nutrition security, agricultural productivity, …
Meso Level
Micro Level
Regional and Sectoral Variablesfood prices, wages, water use, …
Macro Level
Meso Level
Micro Level
International Macroeconomic VariablesInternational trade linkages, fiscal balance, …
Macro Level
Meso Level
Micro Level
Integrated, multi-level approach
Model: MIRAGRODEP Computable General
Equilibrium with household-level data
Comprehensive Modelling
Selecting Indicators for Targets
Select indicators that reflect our SDG 2 subgoals…
Selecting Indicators for Targets
…given limited consensus on definitions and data.
Select indicators that reflect our SDG 2 subgoals…
?
Where do I belong?
Monitored And Targeted Population
The
FarmerThe
Poor
The
Hungry
I
Well-defined indicator,
directly used in model
Not used, insufficient data
Used, some limitations
Not defined by UN
Alternative indicators used
Used, some limitations
UN-Proposed Indicators
Selecting Indicators for Targets
Subgoals
SDG 2.1
End Hunger
SDG 2.3
Smallholder
Productivity
SDG 2.4
Sustainability
Prevalence of
Undernourishment
Production
per Labor Unit
% of Agricultural Area
that Is Sustainable
Food Insecurity
Experience Scale
Average Income by Sex
and Indigenous Status
UN Tier
1
2
3
3
3
In Model?
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
Proposed Indicators in Model
Summary of Indicators
Subgoals
SDG 2.1
End Hunger
SDG 2.3
Smallholder
Productivity
SDG 2.4
Sustainability
Prevalence of Undernourishment Household Only Caloric Hunger
LimitsScale
Proposed Indicators in Model
Summary of Indicators
Subgoals
SDG 2.1
End Hunger
SDG 2.3
Smallholder
Productivity
SDG 2.4
Sustainability
Prevalence of Undernourishment
Net Income for smallholder farmers
Household
Household
Only Caloric Hunger
LimitsScale
Strong Overlap with
SDG 1
Proposed Indicators in Model
Summary of Indicators
Subgoals
SDG 2.1
End Hunger
SDG 2.3
Smallholder
Productivity
SDG 2.4
Sustainability
Prevalence of Undernourishment
Net Income for smallholder farmers
Household
Household
Only Caloric Hunger
LimitsScale
Strong Overlap with
SDG 1
?
SDG 2.4?
SDG 2.4
AdaptationIncluded in
2.1 and 2.3
Mitigation:
GHG Emissions
Economic dimension
Model rationality
Social Dimension
No One Left Behind
(2.1, 2.3)
Water Needs
Monitoring
Energy Use
Land Use
Fertilizer
Use
Proposed Indicators in Model
Summary of Indicators
Subgoals
SDG 2.1
End Hunger
SDG 2.3
Smallholder
Productivity
SDG 2.4
Sustainability
Prevalence of Undernourishment
Net Income for smallholder
farmers
Household
Household
Only Caloric Hunger
LimitsScale
Strong Overlap with
SDG 1
Total GHG emissions in agriculture
Fertilizer Use | Energy Use | Land Use
+ Water Requirements
National Have to be
considered with
other indicators
Proposed Indicators in Model
From Indicators to Quantitative Targets
Subgoals
SDG 2.1
End HungerPrevalence of Undernourishment
Target
5%
Proposed Indicators in Model
From Indicators to Quantitative Targets
Subgoals
SDG 2.1
End Hunger
SDG 2.3
Smallholder
Productivity
Prevalence of Undernourishment
Smallholder productivity
Target
5%
X2
Proposed Indicators in Model
From Indicators to Quantitative Targets
Subgoals
SDG 2.1
End Hunger
SDG 2.3
Smallholder
Productivity
SDG 2.4
Sustainability
Prevalence of Undernourishment
Total GHG emissions in agriculture
Fertilizer Use | Energy Use | Land Use
+ Water Requirements
Smallholder productivity
Target
5%
X2
NDC
Thank you
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DISPLAYS FOR THE CERES2030 SIDE EVENT
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POWERPOINT FOR MEETING WITH DONOR GROUP AT CFS 45
A Partnership
Your opinion matters
Get online (phone, tablet, laptop):
www.menti.comCode: 93 69 90
We are here
What we have done so far
• Deeper integration of the three teams
• Journal advisory board (composition and initial gathering)
• Implementation of SDG2.3 and 2.4 in the modeling framework
• Evidence review & stakeholder involvement
• Briefing note on gender & climate issues in Ceres2030
More details available in the Donor update newsletter
The Road to Costing
Country Coverage Phase I Countries Phase II Improvements
Scheduled:
Bangladesh in 2018
Guatemala in 2019
Rwanda in 2018
Ethiopia in 2019
Additional Countries could be included
More information in CERES2030 Technical Note #l11e
• Senegal
• Ghana
• Nigeria
• Uganda
• Tanzania
• Malawi
• Zambia
Where do I belong?
Monitored And Targeted Population
The
Farmer
The
Poor
The
Hungry
ISmallholder Definition• Area based definition
• 2 Ha
• Based on country distribution (40%:
0.5Ha for Malawi, 3.5Ha for Senegal)
• Income based definition (poor household
with mainly farm related income)
Well-defined indicator,
directly used in model
Not used, insufficient data
Used, some limitations
Not defined by UN
Alternative indicators used
Used, some limitations
UN-Proposed Indicators
Selecting Indicators for Targets
Subgoals
SDG 2.1
End Hunger
SDG 2.3
Smallholder
Productivity
SDG 2.4
Sustainability
Prevalence of
Undernourishment
Production
per Labor Unit
% of Agricultural Area
that Is Sustainable
Food Insecurity
Experience Scale
Average Income by Sex
and Indigenous Status
UN Tier
1
2
3
3
3
In Model?
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
Proposed Indicators in Model
Summary of Indicators
Subgoals
SDG 2.1
End Hunger
SDG 2.3
Smallholder
Productivity
SDG 2.4
Sustainability
Prevalence of Undernourishment
Total GHG emissions in agriculture
Fertilizer Use | Energy Use | Land Use
+ Water Requirements
Option 3: Net Income for farm activities
Household
Household
National
Only Caloric Hunger
Only part of the
Sustainability agenda
1: focus on quantity
LimitsScale
2: no inclusion of cost
3: no non farm income
4: overlap with SDG1
Option 2: Gross Income for farm activities
Option 1: Value of production at constant prices
Option 4: Net Income for smallholders
Per
un
it o
f
farm
lab
or
Proposed Indicators in Model
From Indicators to Quantitative Targets
Subgoals
SDG 2.1
End Hunger
SDG 2.3
Smallholder
Productivity
SDG 2.4
Sustainability
Prevalence of Undernourishment
Total GHG emissions in agriculture
Fertilizer Use | Energy Use | Land Use
+ Water Requirements
Smallholder productivity
Target
5%
X2
NDC
Evidence
Proactive Engagement strategy (2018)
Science
Policy
Donors
May: Policy and Science (Ithaca)
July: ICAE (Vancouver)
August: AAEA (Washington State)
August: SDG2 (Wageningen)
October: Science Policy Forum (South Africa)
November: IFPRI/FAO (Thailand)
September: UNGA (New York)
September: G20/T20 (Buenos Aires)
October: CFS (Rome)
December: AERC Biannual Conference (Kenya)
April: SDG2 Roadmap Initiative (Washington, D.C.)
September: G7 food security working group (Ottawa)
October: SDG2 Roadmap Initiative (Rome)
Divider (just a line)
An integrated evidence dashboard
Reviewing the global evidence base
New analytics dashboardInterventions Articles related to
Prices 2,384
Extension Services 805
Post harvest storage loss 361
Market policies 120
Fertilizer subsidies 77
Volume
Maize Rice Wheat
Millet Barley Oats
Sorghum
Belay Begashaw, Sustainable Development Goals Center for
Africa (Rwanda)
Catherine Bertini, Rockefeller Foundation Fellow, Chicago
Council (USA)
Joachim von Braun, Bonn University (Germany)
Ronnie Coffman, Cornell University (USA)
Boaz Keizire, Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA)
(Kenya)
Segenut Kelemu, International Centre of Insect Physiology
and Ecology (ICIPE) (Kenya)
Uma Lele, International Policy Expert (USA/India)
Leslie Lipper, Independent Science and Policy Council (FAO)
(Italy)
Lindiwe Majele Sibanda, Farmer
Njuguna Ndung'u, African Economic Research Council
(Kenya)
Will Martin, International Food Policy and Research
Institute (IFPRI) (USA)
Prabhu Pingali, Cornell University (USA)
Martin Piñeiro, Director CEO Group, Chair, Committee on
Agriculture, Argentine Council of International Relations
Ruerd Ruben, Wageningen University
Maximo Torero, World Bank (USA)
Paul Winters, International Fund Agricultural Development
(IFAD) (Italy)
Scott Vaughan, International Institute for Sustainable
Development (IISD) (Canada)
Li Xiaoyun, China Agricultural University (China)
Journal Advisory Board
What is the impact on crop yields and water use when farmers use ICTs
to manage irrigation?
What is the combination of interventions to target poverty through
improved market access and off-farm employment opportunities?
increase smallholder farm income more than those that focus on
agricultural production and closing yield gap?
What is the impact of early warning climate and famine systems on
crop loss and economic resilience?
Potential questions
Impact & assessment experts provide feedback on
tools for author teams
Advisory board feedback on topics and author
candidates
Invite authors to contribute to the focused
collection with Nature
2018 next steps
Thank you
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POWERPOINT FOR MEETING ABOUT BASELINES AND SCENARIOS AT CFS 45
A Partnership
SDG 2: Business-As-Usual Scenario
2.4 GHG Emissions in Agriculture
2.3 Smallholder Productivity
2.1 Prevalence of Undernourishment
2015 2030
Role of assumptions
2015 2030
?
Phase I
Phase II Additions
SDG 2: Target Scenario
2.4 GHG Emissions in Agriculture
2.3 Smallholder Productivity
2.1 Prevalence of Undernourishment
2015 2030
Keep under Maximum Level
Double
Reduce to 5%
Baseline or Scenarios
• Highly relevant for costing
• Strong political messages: what has been committed so far vs what is
additional?
• Important for :
• Donor expenditures: ODA (Level and pattern)
• Country expenditures: CAADP ?
• Policy reform: feedback with 2.b, 2.c
• Beyond SDG2 and a silo approach: cross SDG interactions
Illustration
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150
110
170
110
50
70
9080
100
15%
8%
12%
5% 5%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
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2015 2030 - Business As
Usual
2030 - Paris Agreement 2030 - 5% POU 2030 - SDG2.1+SDG2.4
Pre
vale
nce
of U
nd
ern
ou
rish
men
t
Volu
me
GHG Investments POU
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