Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program · 2017-02-24 · tion in the composition of the...

The Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program (CAEWDP) is a knowledge and technical assistance multi-donor trust fund (MDTF) administered by the World Bank. CAEWDP’s mission is to build energy and water security for the countries of Central Asia—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—through enhanced regional cooperation. Since its inception in 2010, CAEWDP has received support from bilateral and multilateral donors including the Government of Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Economic A!airs (SECO), the European Commission (EC), the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID), the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), and the World Bank Group.

WWW.WORLDBANK.ORG/ECA/CAEWDP

Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program

PROGRESS REPORT 2014

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© 2015 The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433Telephone: +1 (202) 473-1000Internet: www.worldbank.org

The 2014 CAEWDP TeamDaryl Fields, CAEWDP Program Manager; Energy-Water Linkages Pillar LeadSunil Kumar Khosla, Energy Development Pillar LeadIJsbrand De Jong, Water Productivity Pillar LeadAbena Aku!o-Akoto, Partnership SpecialistRegina Nesiama, Senior Program Assistant

AcknowledgmentsAbena Aku!o-Akoto prepared and coordinated production of this report with assistance from Susae Elanchenny (Consultant). The report was drafted in large part by Mary Mugala (Consultant) and Bradley Hiller (Consultant). Editorial review was provided by Nansia Constantinou (Communications O"cer) and Heather Worley (Senior Communications O"cer). Document design was created by Debra Malovany (Graphic Designer).

DisclaimerThis work is a product of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors or the governments they represent.

The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.

Rights and PermissionsThe material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given.

Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the O"ce of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: +1 (202) 522-2422; email: [email protected].

PHOTO INFORMATIONUnless otherwise noted, all photos are ©World Bank.

FRONT COVER: Water pipe. Ferghana Valley, Uzbekistan.

p. 1: Boys gather water. Kyrgyz Republic.

p. 7: Construction of the Intumak Dam. Kazakhstan.

p. 11: Participants at CAEWDP’s Second Climate Knowledge Forum in Almaty, Kazakhstan, May 2014.

p. 14: A boy doing homework by candlelight. Tajikistan.

p. 15: Moinak Substation. Kazakhstan.

p. 18: Women collect water. Tajikistan.

p. 19: Water treatment plant. Dushanbe, Tajikistan.

p. 20: An irrigation facility. Kyrgyz Republic.

p. 21: Nurek Dam. Tajikistan.

p. 23: A flooded village. Kazakhstan.

p. 24: Pamir Mountains. Tajikistan.

p. 25: A farmer plants crops. Tajikistan.

p. 27: CAEWDP workshop participants test the Spatial Agent app in Almaty, Kazakhstan.

p. 32: A CAEWDP workshop on IWRM in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, November 2014.

p. 33: A CAEWDP workshop on IWRM in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, October 2014.

p. 39: Agriculture field. Tajikistan.

BACK COVER: Pamir Energy Public-Private Partnership Project. Badakhshan, Tajikistan. Photo Credit: Pamir Energy Company.


(CAEWDP)


ii CAEWDP PROGRESS REPORT 2014

CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

THE CHALLENGE OF WATER AND ENERGY SECURITY IN CENTRAL ASIA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Water . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Understanding the Linkages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

A Balanced Approach to Energy and Water Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Pillars, Outcomes, and Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

2014 PROGRAM HIGHLIGHTS & ACHIEVEMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

The Energy Development Pillar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Analytical Development: Upgrading the Knowledge Foundation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Institutional Strengthening: Shaping the Right Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Investment preparation: Exploring Investment Possibilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

The Water Productivity Pillar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17



Investment Preparation: Exploring Investment Possibilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

The Energy-Water Linkages Pillar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21



Investment Preparation: Exploring Investment Possibilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

TRUST FUND MANAGEMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

Program Administration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

Donor Engagement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

Donor Commitments and Contributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

Financial Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

Portfolio Summary for the Multi-Donor Trust Fund . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

Outreach and Communications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

LOOKING FORWARD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

iii

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

AralDIF Aral Sea Basin Dynamic Information Framework

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

ADB Asia Development Bank

ASBmm Aral Sea Basin Management Model

ASBP-3 Third Aral Sea Basin Plan

BEAM Basin Economic Allocation Model

BT Barki Tajik

CA Central Asia

CAEWDP Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program

CAMP4CA Climate Adaptation & Mitigation Program for Central Asia

CAREC Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation

CASA-1000 1000 Electricity Transmission and Trade Project for Central Asia and South Asia

CA-WaRM Central Asia Water Resources Management

CDKN Climate and Development Knowledge Network

CER Center for Economic Research

CoP Community of Practice

CPF Country Partnership Framework

CSOs Civil Society Organizations

C4D Collaboration for Development

DCC Energy Donor Coordination Committee

DFID UK Department for International Development

DG DEVCO Directorate-General for International Cooperation & Development (European Commission)

EAP Energy Action Plan

EC European Commission

ECA Europe and Central Asia

iv CAEWDP PROGRESS REPORT 2014

EC-IFAS Executive Committee of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea

ESA European Space Agency

ESCC Energy Sector Coordinating Committee

ESW Economic Sector Work

EU European Union

GEF Global Environment Facility

GIZ German Society for International Cooperation

HPP Hydropower Plant

ICSD Central Asia Interstate Commission on Sustainable Development

ICT Information and Communication Technology

IDA International Development Association

ITS Information Technology Services

IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management

M&E Monitoring and Evaluation

MDTF Multi-Donor Trust Fund

MTPP Implementing Medium-Term Priority Projects

NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration

QER Quality Enhancement Review

SDC Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation

SECO The Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs

TA Technical Assistance

TTL Task Team Leader

TWG Central Asia Technical Working Group on Climate Change

UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for Europe

UNRCCA United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia

USAID United States Agency for International Development

USGS United States Geological Survey

WPO Web Program Office

WSS Water Sanitation and Supply

WUA Water User Association

Executive SummaryEXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2 CAEWDP PROGRESS REPORT 2014

This Progress Report describes activities, accomplishments, and management of the Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program (CAEWDP)1 for

the period of January 1 to December 31, 2014.

THE IDEACAEWDP was formally established as a trust fund in 2010 by the Government of Switzerland and the World Bank. The Program supports the Central Asian (CA) countries (Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) and the World Bank’s twin goals to reduce poverty and ensure shared prosperity through long-term economic growth and sustainability. By balancing donor support with national and regional objectives, CAEWDP is able to enhance cooperation and the promotion of integrated energy and water develop-ment initiatives at the regional as well as national levels. The Program activities address the three pil-lars of Energy Development, Water Productivity, and Energy-Water Linkages by producing three outcomes: support for diagnostics and analysis, preparation of investments, and the strengthening of national and regional institutions.

In 2014, CAEWDP underwent a transformational change, as the focus of CAEWDP activities evolved from diagnostics and analytics to technical assistance (TA) and investment identification.

THE CHALLENGESCAEWDP’s role is particularly important given the geographical and institutional complexities of the CA energy-water nexus. Surface water resources are concentrated in two major rivers—the Syr Darya and Amu Darya—which are key drivers of regional eco-nomic growth and development, but which contain complex hydrological characteristics and are increas-ingly vulnerable to the e!ects of climate change. Upstream countries, generally endowed with rich water sources, typically prioritize hydropower energy generation in the winter to supply domestic and industrial users, while downstream countries are particularly reliant on summer flows for agricultural and other purposes. The uneven distribution of water within the region is compounded by a grow-ing population, a highly fragmented institutional system, and the di"culty in attaining consensus over

1 Also referred to in this Progress Report as “The Program.”

resource management. In turn, this has led to sig-nificant losses in economic welfare, periods of water and energy shortages and related tensions, as well as continuous environmental degradation. However, there are opportunities to increase regional agri-cultural production e"ciency, such as by improving production infrastructure and technology and by strengthening water productivity.

In theory, each country can import and export the most appropriate energy form at the appropriate time to mutual advantage, and di!erences in energy services can be optimally combined to reduce costs and mitigate supply risks. However, the current reality of the energy-water nexus in Central Asia is far o! from this theory. E!orts to enhance water and energy security in the region are thus crucial. Increasing energy and water security will also reduce the e!ects of water-related disasters, which impact the safety and livelihoods of the countries’ popula-tions. Hence, addressing energy and water linkages is a critical component in achieving regional secu-rity and stability, as well as in promoting economic growth and shared prosperity.

PROGRAM HIGHLIGHTS AND KEY MESSAGES CAEWDP underwent significant expansion dur-ing 2014, reaching a total of 32 activities at the national (Tajikistan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan) and regional levels—up from 22 activi-ties in 2013—and covering five World Bank sectors: Agriculture and Rural Development; Energy; Social Development; Environment; and Urban. This evolu-tion in the composition of the program allowed for steady achievements in the results framework objec-tives across the Energy Development and Energy-Water Linkages pillars. With 28 activities under implementation and another 22 approved under the May 2014 Call for Proposals, the Program is fast becoming a driver of progress in energy-water man-agement in CA. New activities in 2014: (i) leveraged CAEWDP-funded diagnostic stud-ies into technical assistance with CA counterparts, building core capacity for energy and water security in the region; (ii) expanded the program’s reach into new and innovative areas, including social account-ability; (iii) deepened linkages with the World Bank and development partners’ investment portfolios; and (iv) increased and improved partnerships with beneficiaries through recipient-executed grants and collaboration with regional institutions.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3

Consistent with its commitment to invest-ment preparation, CAEWDP has also supported four significant regional projects by accessing regional International Development Agency (IDA) resources as well as grant funding from programs such as the Global Environment Facility (GEF). These four regional projects are; the Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (CAHMP); the CASA-1000 regional power trade project; and two projects currently under preparation on regional climate change adaptation and regional water resources management. Similarly, the World Bank’s improved partnership with the Executive Committee of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (EC-IFAS) resulted in the identification of a water resources management project that will help implement the five-country Third Aral Sea Basin Plan (ASBP-3) under a Memorandum of Understanding signed between the two institutions. A fifth invest-ment project in the Tajikistan energy sector is also under preparation. These projects o!er the oppor-tunity to simultaneously strengthen national and regional investments, institutions, and capacities.

CAEWDP is not managed as an isolated pro-gram; it is increasingly linked to, complements, and leverages the World Bank’s national lending portfolio in CA. CASA-1000 is a prime example of the deep-ened linkages between the Program and the World Bank’s investment portfolio. Beyond diagnostics, the Program provides technical assistance for capac-ity building in the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan to enable the implementation of the CASA-1000 project. Donor partnerships and collaborations have also been instrumental in helping to achieve results. With the addition of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) to the Multi-Donor Trust Fund (MDTF), the Program was able to expand sup-port for activities in climate change that helped to move the climate agenda forward on the regional and national stage in Central Asia. Other key part-nerships are evolving—in particular with the United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA) on high-level trans-boundary dialogue and agreements—and opportuni-ties are arising to further expand coordination with partners, such as the Swiss Government on building on the meeting of all five Central Asian countries at the November 2014 Basel Conference on Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM); the German Society for International Cooperation (GIZ) on

strengthening knowledge platforms; and USAID on joint research initiative and climate change. CAEWDP welcomes opportunities to co-finance and coordinate energy and water initiatives in the region.

The 2014 achievements in each of the Program’s three pillars are highlighted below.

ENERGY DEVELOPMENT PILLAR Central Asia’s mixed energy resource system com-prises significant oil, gas, and coal reserves in the downstream countries and substantial hydropower potential in the upstream countries. The region’s hydropower resources in particular have the poten-tial to help all CA countries meet their electricity needs on a seasonal basis and in the most cost e!ec-tive and environmentally friendly manner, while also serving as a source of export revenue.

The Energy Development Pillar of CAEWDP aims to promote and study high-value energy investments that focus on energy security, energy e"ciency, trade and accountability, infrastructure planning, and insti-tutional development. This pillar’s activities also pro-mote better coordination among the development partners working in this region.

Some pillar activity highlights from 2014 include:

�Z The Tajikistan Energy Sector Dialogue activity assisted Tajikistan’s national integrated power company with financial management through the production of a note on the Financial Assessment of the company and the prepara-tion of a Quasi-Fiscal Deficit Assessment of the power sector, both of which have served as an analytical basis for discussing the macroeco-nomic impact of the energy sector with the Government and development partners.

�Z The Tajikistan: Long Term Sustainable Energy Sector Strategy & Continuing Role of CAEWDP study provided an overview of a long-term sus-tainable energy strategy for Tajikistan based on analysis, actions, and roles of key development partners, particularly CAEWDP. The finalized document will serve as a basis for discussion with the Government of Tajikistan and other development partners, as well as for reaching an agreement on milestones where CAEWDP can play an increasingly important role.

�Z The Heating and Energy E!ciency Assessment for the Building Sector of the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan activity identified viable heating


solutions, including energy e"ciency measures such as insulation of attics or replacement of windows, for the urban building sector of both countries to help address winter power short-ages. All the key results and findings of the assessment were summarized in a final report for each country that will be published in early 2015.

�Z The Enhancing Regional Power Trade in Central Asia activity supported preparation of materi-als on international experience with regional power trade as well as a series of consulta-tions with CA countries and the regional Coordination Dispatch Center. The activity brought together the technical experts from the CA countries engaged on this issue and may help the relevant decision-makers to prioritize the technical issues that must be addressed to facilitate enhanced regional power trade.

WATER PRODUCTIVITY PILLARThe CA water sector faces many challenges, includ-ing 50 percent (96 percent in Turkmenistan) of irrigated lands a!ected by salinization and water logging as a result of poor irrigation and drainage systems. CA countries are struggling to rehabilitate aging water infrastructure and to implement mod-ern technologies in irrigation, all of which has had adverse e!ects on agricultural productivity and envi-ronmental protection in the region.

The Water Productivity Pillar aims to enhance the productive and e"cient use of water in the agricul-tural and energy sectors through capacity building, institutional strengthening, and investment planning.


�Z The Strengthening Irrigation Governance TA activity gathered data that found a large varia-tion in the performance of local water man-agement institutions. A number of factors that appear to influence performance of local institutional arrangements were identified and successful practices recommended. The findings should be able to generate discussions around what can be done to further scale-up factors for success, and how they can be tracked strategi-cally at the national or project level in order to ensure conditions for good local water manage-ment are in place across the countries.

�Z The Social Impact Analysis of Water Supply and Sanitation in Central Asia TA activity assessed consumer experiences with water supply and sanitation (WSS) services across a range of selected sites in Uzbekistan and determined consumer readiness for reform. Data on con-sumer perceptions and impacts of current WSS service access and quality were collected and analyzed. A consultation draft that summarizes findings has been shared with the Government of Uzbekistan and the Center for Economic Research (CER), a key Uzbek think tank. Discussions were held with the CER to organize a seminar in March 2015 to debate methods and findings with policy-makers and researchers.

ENERGY!WATER LINKAGES PILLARThe Energy-Water Linkages Pillar aims to improve the understanding of linkages between energy and water at national and regional levels through dialogue, strengthening information and analysis, and explor-ing the future impact of regional climate change.


�Z The CAEWDP Riparian Dialogue activity achieved, with considerable international sup-port, the 5th and final set of consultations on the two Rogun hydropower plant (HPP) assess-ment studies. This involved active participa-tion from all six riparian countries (including Afghanistan) and brought together over 60 civil society organizations and more than 40 members of the development and diplomatic communities. The meetings concluded with a request to continue the dialogue at a higher level of engagement.

�Z The Central Asia Water and Energy Portal activity seeks to improve public domain access to basic spatial information related to water and energy resources in a regional setting, using modern online tools to reach out to stakeholders. The activity has made substantial progress in this regard, especially through the development and promotion of a new mobile application (app)—called Spatial Agent—that provides access to such data.

�Z The Central Asia Climate Change Knowledge Forum activity continued to build on ear-lier e!orts to create a platform to promote

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5

knowledge exchange and information shar-ing on a number of issues around climate-resilient development and green growth. The preparation of the forum was cited as a lead-ing example of team work and collaboration across the World Bank Group. As a result of the five-country forum, a CA Technical Working Group on Climate Change (TWG) and the Climate Adaptation & Mitigation Program for Asia (CAMP4CA) project were both initiated. CAMP4CA’s objective is to enhance collabora-tion among CA stakeholders to improve national and regional resilience to climate change.

�Z The Central Asia Energy-Water Modeling activity aims to develop a strengthened energy-water model and analytical framework for CA. A road-map was established based on extensive con-sultations and inputs from national specialists, as well as a first-ever six-country workshop on strengthening analysis of IWRM. Several activi-ties identified in the roadmap were initiated in 2014, ensuring continuity in the long-term task of building an e!ective knowledge platform.

THE RISING TIDEIn 2014 the multi-donor partnership was o"cially extended from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2016 to enable the completion of program activi-ties. With the addition of the United States to the partnership in November 2014, total Program pledges now amount to US$11.3 million (Figure 1). 91 percent of pledged funds have been allocated to specific activities, significantly increasing disburse-ments (Figure 2). The impact on Program profile, confidence, and breadth is reflected in a dramatic expansion of program activities and a transition from diagnostics to action. In addition to processing new activities and monitoring the completion of oth-ers, program management focused on: exploring a partnership with the IFAS; reviewing the Results Framework; fundraising; and communications. Communication materials included the produc-tion of a mid-term newsletter highlighting program updates for the first half of the year and the 2014 Progress Report.

LOOKING FORWARDThe evolution of the Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program has been significant over the

last year, with identifiable results. The number of activities has increased by 50 percent from 22 to 32 between 2013 and 2014, and the reach of sectors and issues have broadened. Importantly, new activi-ties are building on previous CAEWDP initiatives and findings, moving up the “value added ladder.” This is

FIGURE 1: Multi-Donor Trust Fund Partners

0

1,000,000.00

2,000,000.00

3,000,000.00

4,000,000.00

5,000,000.00

6,000,000.00

SECO DFID USAID EuropeanCommission

Pledges Contributions to date

As of December 31, 2014

*Note: Contribution refers to funding received. Pledge refers to the amount donors have agreed to provide during the course of the administrative agreement.

FIGURE 2: CAEWDP Disbursements by Pillar by Year

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

EnergyDevelopment

Energy-WaterLinkages

WaterProductivity

0 0 0 102 225

0 116

404

19

Thou

sand

s

2011 2012 2013 2014

294

2258

507


particularly apparent in the three core components of energy security, the water knowledge platform (and decisions support), and climate change, all of which are preparing investment projects based on CAEWDP-funded analysis and technical assistance.

In 2015, the Program management will strengthen this trend, completing some 10 analytical and technical assistance activities and supporting the investment projects (both in implementation and preparation) that demand a strong focus, given their complexity and need to simultaneously address national and regional priorities.

The evolution of the Program o!ers additional opportunities to leverage the World Bank’s active investment portfolio in Central Asia, currently

estimated at US$5.99 billion. It also opens new opportunities to link capacity and technical assis-tance initiatives of development partners (e.g., GIZ, USAID) with investment lending instruments for additional benefit to the countries.

An interim review of the Program, to be initi-ated in 2015, will provide important insights on early program results and possible course corrections over the next 24 months. Supported by new communi-cations products, the review will enhance discus-sion with Central Asia governments, development partners and stakeholders on the next steps for the Program in its goal to strengthen energy and water security for the people of Central Asia.

THE CHALLENGE OF WATER AND ENERGY SECURITY IN CENT!L ASIA


EnergyCentral Asia is endowed with significant natural energy resources. In pwarticular, the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan have abundant low carbon hydro-power potential; Kazakhstan has significant reserves of oil, gas, and coal; Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have substantial gas reserves as well as some reserves of oil; and Uzbekistan also contains coal resources. Central Asia’s resources, if fully exploited, exceed domestic demand and represent key devel-opment strengths of the region. In addition, a well-functioning and interconnected energy system could enable the region to manage di!ering cost patterns, fuel mixes, and risk profiles (including reliability and fuel supply, such as hydrological variability). There is also the potential for o!setting demand patterns with cost and reliability benefits and for creating a positive environmental impact with an improved and better-connected energy system. Energy export potential both within and outside the region is also high. While some of the potential of gas and oil is already exploited and new transmission lines (e.g. linking north and south Kazakhstan, and north and south Tajikistan) have improved the energy distribu-tion situation, winter shortages continue to be per-vasive in the region. These are most pressing in the upstream countries of the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan, which mostly depend on hydropower, but also extend to Uzbekistan and the southern part of Kazakhstan.

WaterThe Amu Darya and Syr Darya, which once had a combined flow equal to that of the Nile, are slowly shrinking. This, coupled with increasing demand for water for multiple uses, presents the region with significant challenges. Allocating water among dif-ferent uses and users requires evaluating choices and tradeo!s as well as opportunities and syner-gies. Alongside large existing and potential water storage capacity, the role of hydropower resources extends beyond power generation to meet other needs such as drinking water and irrigation. Of par-ticular concern is agriculture, a mainstay of several national economies, which needs irrigation water during the summer season. The timing of river flows is projected to shift from summer to spring, with

adverse consequences for water availability in criti-cal crop-growing periods.2 Decisions in managing water have both domestic and regional implications for water quality, ecological protection, and water quantity / availability. Irrigation water demand is likely to increase by up to 25 percent by the middle of the century, while water availability could decline by up to 30–40 percent during the same period.3 At the same time, water management has feedback implications for energy security and system stabil-ity through the management of reservoirs and their potential role in ancillary services such as power fre-quency regulation and reserve capacity.

Climate ChangeClimate change is also expected to exacerbate pressures on hydrological systems, with an overall reduction in volume of water available, continu-ing changes in temporal and spatial patterns, and increased variability and extreme events. Rising tem-peratures and reducing precipitation in the region may hasten the disappearance of the Southern Aral Sea, while CA’s glaciers face accelerated melting caused by higher temperatures. Expectations are for an increase in extreme conditions and a long term decline in water resources (after 2050) as the mod-erating role of glaciers give way to dependence on rain and snow alone. The CAEWDP-funded Climate Change Technical Working Group (TWG), which includes experts from all five Central Asian countries, identified water and agriculture as the top climate-related concerns. Even without climate change, the pressures of economic and population growth are likely to increase water stress by 2030. Thus, energy-water linkages are inextricable from regional stability and growth. Without the strengthening of regional cooperation, winter energy shortages and summer water conflicts dominate the current Central Asia picture, and cast a shadow on long-term develop-ment in the region.

2 World Bank Group. 2014. Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate Normal. pg. 173. Washington, DC: World Bank. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/han-dle/10986/20595 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO. 3 Ibid.

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/20595

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/20595

THE CHALLENGE OF WATER AND ENERGY SECURITY IN CENTRAL ASIA 9

Energy Development Water Productivity Energy-Water Linkages

Promote high value

energy investments

and management.

Focus:

• Winter energy security

including infrastructure

planning.

• Energy trade.

• Energy accountability.

• Energy e!ciency.

Enhance the productivity and

e!ciency of water use in both

agriculture and energy sectors.

Focus:

• Third Aral Sea Basin

Management Program.

• New and rehabilitated

infrastructure for

irrigation e!ciency.

• New technologies

and e!cient water

supply services.

Improve the understanding of

linkages between water and energy

at the national and regional levels.

Focus:

• Energy-water modeling.

• Regional hydrometeorology.

• Climate vulnerability.

• Energy-water dialogue.

• Knowledge portal (web-based

open access data).

Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program: Three Pillars

FIGURE 3: The CAEWDP Pillars

Understanding the LinkagesDuring the Soviet era, water and energy manage-ment was designed according to a regional approach and was centrally managed: organized systems were set up for energy and energy-water exchanges to reap the benefits of coordination. However, the political dynamic in the region is now characterized by increasing forms of national self-su"ciency and tensions between neighboring countries, exacer-bated by the co-dependent infrastructure legacy of the Soviet era. CA currently lacks robust systems, institutions, and infrastructure to jointly manage regional energy and water resources.

The current state of energy and water manage-ment in the region is further confounded by factors that go beyond institutional di"culties, such as, weak financial/commercial frameworks for financing energy trade; under-investment in energy resulting in generation deficits; constraints on transmission and related infrastructure; strong economic growth that has increased demand and exacerbated deficits; and di"cult natural conditions characterized by harsh winters and low precipitation. These circum-stances amount to a vicious cycle that creates an especially complex environment. There is value in

strengthening institutional capacity and supporting institutions. It is this recognized need that presents the best opportunity for engaging decision-makers in the region who are actively looking for solu-tions to achieve energy and water security for their respective populations, especially the poor and most vulnerable.

A Balanced Approach to Energy and Water SecurityCAEWDP works to build long-term energy and water security in the CA countries, combining national activities with e!orts to promote regional coordina-tion. CAEWDP’s role is particularly important given the geographical and institutional complexities of CA’s energy-water linkages. By establishing sound energy-water diagnostics and analytical tools, identifying priority infrastructure investments, and strengthening regional institutions, the Program’s long-term goals are to eliminate winter energy shortages, enhance water productivity, and increase electricity trade within and outside the region.


PILLARS, OUTCOMES, AND RESULTSThe Program is based on three pillars (Figure 3):

Under each pillar, the Program focuses on three outcomes:4

1� Analytical Development: Upgrading the Knowledge Foundation;

2� Institutional Strengthening: Shaping the Right Strategies; and

3� Investment Preparation: Exploring Investment Possibilities.

The Program funds activities at the country, multi-country, and regional levels. In so doing, it supports e!orts by the countries to take advantage of their natural resources, and respects national pri-orities while promoting regional prosperity. It fosters dialogue across borders in order to reap the benefits of regional coordination and cooperation. Priorities include addressing severe shortages of energy in upstream countries and reducing the vulnerability of downstream countries to hydrological variability.

4 In this report, pillar activities are presented according to the three outcome areas.

To achieve these outcomes, the Program devel-oped a comprehensive Results Framework, with the following overall objectives:

1� At least three investment or policy options (two of which are targeted at Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic) to strengthen the stability and predictability of power supplies;

2� At least two investment decisions on national level water or energy projects including a clear understanding of their transboundary implica-tions; and

3� Sustainable institutions for improved water dia-logue across Central Asia stakeholders.

A fourth overall objective, to establish a Multi-Donor Trust Fund, was achieved in 2011.

2014 PROG!M HIGHLIGHTS & ACHIEVEMENTS


.

In collaboration with the European Commission (EC), the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic A!airs (SECO), USAID and the UK Department for International Development (DFID), the

CAEWDP work program expanded from US$1.2 million in 2013 to US$4.2 million in 2014. Notable successes lie in climate change risk management, strengthening the energy policy environment in Tajikistan, and building the foundations of a modern knowledge platform for water management. Leading the six-country5 consultation process on the Rogun Assessment studies, CAEWDP served as a model for applying modern standards consistent with international conventions to transboundary dialogue. Through CAEWDP’s continued support for energy dialogue across all five countries, the World Bank hosted the first meeting of First Deputy Prime Ministers on transboundary water management in more than four years, and was subsequently invited to facilitate successive discussions.

CAEWDP is increasingly linked with, comple-ments, and leverages the World Bank’s national lending portfolio in CA, which consists of over 30 energy and water investment projects and two development policy operations. These include: a study to improve the management of Tuyamuyun

5 Hereafter, “six countries” refers to the five CA countries plus Afghanistan.

Reservoir involving Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan; a project to restore a portion of the Aral Sea in Kazakhstan; a joint venture with the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) to upgrade the water management and data system in the Kyrgyz Republic; and the establishment of an energy savings investment program at TALCO, Tajikistan’s largest aluminum company. The Program’s contributions to new investments lie in analysis and investment preparation, such as modeling investment options; convening regional dialogue to, for example, iden-tify joint investments); and strengthening the policy environment in the energy sector. CAEWDP also complements and leverages the portfolios of other development partners. For example, CAEWDP funds donor coordination e!orts in Tajikistan on energy policy with its key partner, the Asian Development Bank (ADB); produced the Road Map for Strengthening IWRM Analysis jointly with the SDC and United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE); and partners with the UNRCCA in the Rogun consultations and the UNRCCA’s regional dialogue on a cooperative framework for trans-boundary water management. Program highlights and achievements for each pillar are outlined in the following chapters.

US$4.2 MILLION:

VALUE OF CAEWDP WORK

PROGRAM IN 2014, ALMOST 3X THAT IN 2013

US$11.3 MILLION:

TOTAL AMOUNTOF DONOR PLEDGES TO

CAEWDP AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2014

32:

NUMBER OF CAEWDP ACTIVITIES UNDER

IMPLEMENTATION AT THE NATIONAL AND

REGIONAL LEVEL IN 2014

2014 PROGRAM HIGHLIGHTS & ACHIEVEMENTS 13

BOX 1: Ongoing Challenges for CA’s Energy Development

Current energy systems are becoming less reliable as the CA power system deteriorates. The region is trading 90 percent less energy than it did in the early 1990s. Although new transmission lines linking the north and south in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan have improved distribution, regional domestic needs are still not being met, with 2 million households across the region a!ected by winter heat and power shortages each year. The Central Asian countries did not utilize opportunities to go after the “low-hanging fruit” of increasing benefits through increased cooperation, which would have helped in the rapid modernization of aged, Soviet-era infrastructure. The main challenges are to maintain and rehabilitate existing infrastructure, provide new generation infrastructure for energy-hungry, growing economies, and explore new models for energy trade—both within and outside the region.

"e Energy Development PillarIn 2014, a number of Energy Development Pillar activities were implemented, with a particular deep-ening of linkages with the World Bank’s and devel-opment partners’ investment portfolios. The main analytical activities focused on heating and energy e"ciency in the building sector. Meanwhile, institu-tional strengthening was concentrated in Tajikistan via an ongoing energy sector dialogue and by outlin-ing a long-term sustainable energy sector strategy for discussion. Additionally, there was a strong focus on enhancing regional power trade, particularly via advisory support and investment preparation for the CASA-1000 project for the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan. Box 1 outlines some of the ongo-ing energy development challenges. Several new and important initiatives were launched in 2014, including the preparation of an investment project for mitigating the winter energy crisis in Tajikistan; the improvement of the district heating system in the Kyrgyz Republic; the study of energy markets in Kazakhstan and their lessons for the region; and an assessment of subsidies in the Uzbekistan energy sector and their impact.

CAEWDP’s Energy Development Pillar aims to promote and study high-value investments that focus on winter energy security, energy e"ciency, enhancing trade and accountability, infrastructure planning, and institutional development. In 2014, progress was made with regard to the overall pillar objectives of:

�Z National energy plans in at least two countries that take inter- and intra-regional energy into consideration;

�Z Pre-investment analysis for two options for stable and predictable winter power supply in Tajikistan & the Kyrgyz Republic;

�Z National energy decisions that take into account regional implications of national investments;

�Z Strengthened institutional development (energy trade institutions);

�Z Increased political and financial support for transmission infrastructure planning; and

�Z At least one new investment decision that includes inter-/intra-regional implications.

A synopsis of analytical development, institu-tional strengthening, and investment preparation activities in the Energy Development Pillar is pro-vided below.

ANALYTICAL DEVELOPMENT: UPGRADING THE KNOWLEDGE FOUNDATION

Heating and Energy E"ciency Assessment for the Building Sector of the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan

(Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: US$170,000; Task Team Leader (TTL): Ani Balabanyan)The development objective of this activity is to identify viable heating solutions, including energy-e"ciency measures, for the urban building sector of the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan to help the two countries address winter power shortages.

As part of the activity, a detailed situational analysis for each of the two target countries was conducted. This included a detailed overview of the physical, institutional, and regulatory characteristics of the urban heating and buildings sector in each of


the two countries, with specific focus on four rep-resentative cities. The stocktaking of ongoing initia-tives and lessons learnt was used to include specific case studies in the final report to highlight relevant implementation experience and lessons for moving forward. A second intermediate report evaluated the various supply and demand-side heating options and investment measures that are available for dif-ferent customer segments. A third intermediate report highlighted the specific investment and policy recommendations for each of the two countries. The key findings and recommendations were summa-rized in two draft final reports in 2014, one for each country, including an update of some of the data/analysis to take into account recent developments in the heating sector. The final reports will be published in 2015.

In terms of follow-on activities, the World Bank is preparing an investment-lending Winter Energy Project in Tajikistan, which is based on the find-ings and recommendations of the Heating Report and other activities related to managing the winter energy deficit. This work would also be funded by the CAEWDP trust fund. In the Republic, the state regulator is developing a transparent tari!-setting methodology and a clear performance and report-ing framework for the heating sector based on policy recommendations included in the draft report (and also supported by a parallel TA activity and

development policy operation conducted by the World Bank). At the request of the Ministry of Energy and Industry, and based on the results and recom-mendations of the assessment, the World Bank also initiated a follow-up TA activity with the District Heating company in Bishkek to support the develop-ment of a detailed investment and implementation plan. This investment plan will help development partners to have inputs for their investment project in district heating access and e"ciency improvement in the Kyrgyz Republic.

INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHENING: SHAPING THE RIGHT STRATEGIES

Tajikistan Energy Sector Dialogue

(Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: US$170,000; TTL: Yuriy Myroshnychenko)The strategic objective of the Tajikistan Energy Sector Dialogue is to support Tajikistan’s e!orts in reducing winter energy shortages and improving the perfor-mance of the energy sector. This activity builds on the CAEWDP-funded Tajikistan Winter Energy Crisis study and supports three areas, including (i) assis-tance to Barki Tajik (BT) on financial management; (ii) participation in the Energy Donor Coordination Committee (DCC); and (iii) assessment of the energy sector’s macroeconomic impact and contingent liabilities on the state budget.


All activities were largely implemented during 2014. The key activity outcomes are as follows:

(i)�The development partner community position on key issues in the energy sector is aligned and, as a result, coordination among donors has improved. Development partners have a consolidated position on Tajikistan energy issues that is reflected in their respective energy sector dialogues with the Tajikistan authorities;

(ii)�A note on the Financial Assessment of BT and Quasi-Fiscal Deficit of the Tajikistan Power Sector has been prepared and will serve as an analytical basis for discussing the energy sector; and

(iii)�Valuation of BT fixed assets and inventory has been completed, and evaluation of BT payables and receivables is at an advanced stage of prog-ress and should be completed in February 2015.

Tajikistan: Long-Term Sustainable Energy Sector Strategy & Continuing Role of CAEWDP

(Activity Status: ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: US$40,000; TTL: Sunil Kumar Khosla)The objective of this report was to provide an over-view of a long-term sustainable energy strategy for Tajikistan. The report synthesized a recommended long-term sustainable energy strategy—based on the analysis, actions, and roles of key development partners, particularly CAEWDP—to serve as a basis for discussion between development partners and the Government of Tajikistan and for agreeing on milestones.

Four key long-term challenges for Tajikistan’s energy sector were identified, namely: (i) strength-ening energy security; (ii) improving governance, transparency, and accountability; (iii) ensuring finan-cial viability; and (iv) meeting and managing con-sumer (residential and industrial) needs. A general roadmap for addressing these long-term challenges was presented, while specific goals and actions for addressing each challenge were also outlined. Finally, CAEWDP’s role and contribution to energy-sector challenges in Tajikistan and regionally were described. CAEWDP has played an important role to date as a regional facilitator (between countries and development partners) and in the provision of diagnostics (e.g., the Tajikistan Winter Energy Crisis study). In the longer term, it is anticipated that CAEWDP will help to open up further opportunities

to handle greater challenges as crucial infrastructure needs emerge to solve development challenges.

Enhancing Regional Power Trade in Central Asia

(Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: US$180,000; TTL: Yuriy Myroshnychenko)The objectives of the Enhancing Regional Power Trade in Central Asia activity are (i) to explore options for, and facilitate discussions on, power trade and cooperation between CA countries with a view to increase e"ciency of their respective power systems, enhance reliability and security of electric-ity supply, reduce power shortages, and avoid GHG emissions; and ii) to enhance knowledge among power-sector stakeholders in CA countries of inter-national best practices in regional trade.

The activity objectives have partially been met. The knowledge of power-sector stakeholders in CA countries has improved. International best prac-tices were shared during bilateral consultations and the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC)’s Energy Sector Coordination Committee (ESCC) meetings in 2014. Power-sector stakehold-ers were familiarized with the lessons learned with respect to regional power trade models and experi-ence in the EU, the Balkans, and Central America. A list of technical issues that hamper regional power trade was produced through consultations with indi-vidual CA countries.

This activity supported preparation of materials on international experiences with regional power trade and a series of consultations with CA countries and the Coordination Dispatch Center (which helped identify priority technical issues to be addressed to


allow for enhanced regional power trade in CA). All countries supported the idea of a regional work-shop to learn from international experience and discuss CA specific solutions to the technical issues. In preparation for the workshop, a note on the cur-rent status of key technical issues such as metering, transit methodology, energy and capacity pricing was prepared. However, a workshop has not yet taken place because of the importance placed on CA governments’ ownership. While the knowledge base of steps needed to be addressed at the technical experts level and exposure to international experi-ence have been enhanced, without endorsement of power trade at the highest political level of CA coun-tries, energy-sector counterparts have been reluctant to commit resources and truly engage in taking meaningful steps in this endeavor. We hope the recent lead taken by Kazakhstan in this respect will encourage other CA governments to actively engage on this topic, providing momentum for this activity.

INVESTMENT PREPARATION: EXPLORING INVESTMENT POSSIBILITIES

CASA-1000 Advisory Support for the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan Regional Trade Initiatives Project

(Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: US$600,0006; TTL: Mirlan Aldayarov)The objective of this activity is to facilitate the preparation of the CASA-1000 project7 and other possible regional energy trade initiatives for the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan. The CASA-1000 project would help make the most e"cient use of clean hydropower resources in the CA countries by enabling them to transfer and sell their electricity surplus during the summer months to electricity-deficient countries in South Asia.

This activity has resulted in the strengthened capacity of the Governments of the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan to negotiate commercial framework agreements, resulting in the signing of two core commercial agreements for the project, a Master

6 This amount is comprised of US$300,000 for the Tajikistan Advisory Support for Regional Trade Initiatives Project and US$300,000 for the Kyrgyz Republic Advisory Support for Regional Trade Initiatives Project.7 The objective of the CASA-1000 project is to create the con-ditions for sustainable electricity trade between the Central Asian countries of Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic and the South Asian countries of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Agreement and Power Purchase Agreement. The advisors are now working on finalizing the remaining agreements.

The other expected results from this activity are: (i) benefit-sharing schemes and construction and operation contracts for electricity trade within the CASA-1000 project; and (ii) improved knowledge about energy trade, enabling the Governments to negotiate and participate as equal partners in other regional energy trade initiatives. The activity will achieve these results by implementing the main components of the activity, which are to provide:

�Z Technical Assistance to support the Kyrgyz and Tajik governments and the working groups to advance CASA-1000 groundwork by financing country advisors with technical, commercial, legal, environmental, social, and other neces-sary expertise; and to support other inter- and intra-regional energy trade initiatives by financ-ing relevant assessments, studies, consultations with stakeholders, and public outreach pro-grams; and

�Z Logistic support for the several face-to-face meetings needed to agree on multi-country international agreements. It will also assist Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic to facilitate dialogue and the development of regional energy trade initiatives (ongoing or future), as well as incremental operating expenses for the Project Implementation Unit.

Capacity building activities were carried out in 2014 under the CASA-1000 Advisory Support activity and have to date: (i) provided grants to Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic to support the governments with their groundwork on the CASA-1000 project through the financing of advisory services from legal, com-mercial, and other relevant experts, and (ii) equipped the beneficiary governments with the technical expertise to negotiate the CASA-1000 agreements. The activities are ongoing and will continue through-out the duration of the CASA-1000 project.

Energy Vulnerability to Climate Change

(Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: US$50,000; TTL: Daryl Fields)The overall objective of this activity is to support beneficiary countries in CA in understanding climate change-induced energy sector vulnerabilities and


in building resilience through the development of coordinated adaptation policies. The project con-solidates a vulnerability assessment of the impacts, risks, and the adaptive capacity of the energy sector. The assessment will help guide decision-makers on options for current and future investments in and management of power generation and transmission/distribution assets.

The activity is divided into three parts:

�Z Part 1 focuses on consolidating and critically reviewing existing studies for consistency, potential for aggregation, and robustness;

�Z Part 2 includes a country-level analysis of Tajikistan based on the HEAT methodology of previous country-level studies, augmenting specific aspects based on existing studies and addressing gaps; and

�Z Part 3 includes a CA regional-level study con-solidating descriptions of risks across CA, high-lighting commonalities and di!erences.

The objective of the funding from CAEWDP is to complement the analysis carried out under the project financed by a Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN) grant of US$500,000, thereby ensuring that the overall development objective will be met. The CAEWDP grant will (i) allow adding one more climate marker scenario, enabling analysis of more variability of runo!

projections; (ii) augment the analysis of water hydrology and glacial melting; and (iii) enable an integration of hydrologic economic optimization modeling into the study.

"e Water Productivity Pillar2014 marked an important transition for CAEWDP by including water supply and sanitation studies into its analytical foundation in response to strong demand for improved WSS services, and in view of the importance of satisfying demand for good qual-ity drinking water. Pillar activities were expanded into new and innovative areas, including social accountability. The scope of institutional strengthen-ing and investment preparation activities focused on irrigation e"ciency and governance. Box 2 out-lines some of the ongoing challenges in the Water Productivity Pillar.

The CAEWDP Water Productivity Pillar seeks to increase productivity and the e"ciency of water use in the water and energy sectors. In 2014, progress was made with regard to the overall pillar objectives of:

�Z The strengthening of IFAS’ capacity in agricul-tural water management and improving communication between national agricultural water specialists;

BOX 2: Ongoing Challenges for CA’s Water Productivity

Water resources management in CA is arguably even more complex and challenging than energy. Water resources currently support economic and social activity, including hydropower development and agriculture, as well as provide for basic consumer needs, however, there are a number of development challenges.

Across Central Asia, over 10 million hectares of agricultural land depends on irrigation. On average, agriculture contributes 11 percent to national GDP, and accounts for 20–25 percent of employment, depending on the country. While large-scale irrigation development occurred in the 1970s and 1980s, the canal infrastructure has since come to the end of its economic life. Looking ahead, population growth, climate change, and the need for increased agri-cultural production will lead to increased competition over the region’s water resources. With irrigated agriculture accounting for over 80 percent of all water use, water savings to satisfy future competing demand from other sectors will need to be generated by using irrigation water more e"ciently. In addition, irrigation ine"ciency comes at high costs: in Uzbekistan, 60 percent of the budget of the Ministry responsible for irrigation is allocated to electricity costs to run the many pumping stations that lift water from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya. It is estimated that a 10 percent increase in e"ciency could potentially save US$188 million in reduced electricity costs at the regional level. For the national governments in Central Asia, the rehabilitation of hydraulic assets and the introduction of innovative irriga-tion technologies are therefore key priorities for improving food security and livelihoods, and for increasing the resil-ience to hydrologic variability.


�Z The identification of infrastructure and manage-ment opportunities (including investments) for increased agricultural water productivity;

�Z The preparation of national action plans for increasing agricultural water productivity; and

�Z The incorporation of an understanding of regional water productivity in the national plans, policies and / or investments of at least two countries.

A synopsis of analytical development, institu-tional strengthening, and investment preparation activities in the Water Productivity Pillar is provided below.


Analysis of Water Supply and Sewerage Services in Central Asia

(Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: US$270,000; TTL: Pier Francesco Mantovani)The objective of the Analysis of Water Supply and Sewerage Services in Central Asia study is to provide a diagnostic of the current status and challenges of water supply and sanitation (WSS) in four key CA countries—Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan—and to outline policy priorities towards improved access, quality, e"ciency, and sus-tainability of WSS services. The study will achieve this by analyzing the infrastructure, service, institutional framework, and financial dimensions of WSS sector development, in part based on primary data collec-tion across countries sharing common sector legacies

from the Soviet era. The study will contribute to informing country governments on prioritizing WSS-sector reform and investment needs. The expected outcomes of the activity include:

� i.�Improving sector knowledge and outlining pos-sible strategic policy reforms to better inform governments and donors’ policy/strategy; and

ii.�Participation and engagement of stakehold-ers in the final activity workshop scheduled for September 2015.

The selection and contracting of a well-qualified consulting consortium to conduct the study was completed as of December 2014. The launch of the study was announced to countries and prelimi-nary data gathering also began in December 2014. Services will commence in full in January 2015.

Upon completion of data collection and analy-sis, a report is expected as the final activity output. Consultation and dissemination of the study are expected to deepen WSS policy dialogue with governments towards strengthened sector partner-ships, spurring support for institutional reform and increased investments.

Social Impact Analysis of Water Supply and Sanitation Services in Central Asia

(Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: US$170,000; TTL: Robertus Antonius Swinkels)The objective of the Social Impact Analysis Water Supply and Sanitation in Central Asia TA activity is to promote the engagement of consumers and the use of evidence in developing WSS policies and plans for equitable access. This activity was carried out in Uzbekistan and was achieved by: (i) conducting an assessment of consumer perceptions and impacts of current WSS service access and quality; and (ii) strengthening the capacity of country counterparts in engaging customers and stakeholders in policy development and social accountability in WSS ser-vice and investments.

This study assessed consumer experiences with current WSS services across a range of selected sites in Uzbekistan and determined consumer readiness for reform. First, the study analyzed how surveyed consumers currently meet their WSS needs and what proportion of their household budget is spent on meeting those needs. Second, it assessed the inter-action between consumers and service providers. Third, it examined stakeholder views and positions


on service modernization needs and assessed con-sumer willingness to pay for quality networked WSS services. Comparisons were made across consumers in a selection of cities, small towns, and rural areas; between consumers who are connected to a net-worked service and those who are not; and between households in the bottom 40 percent and top 60 percent of the income distribution (as estimated through a wealth index).

As of December 2014, the collection and analysis of the data on consumer perceptions and impacts of current WSS service access and qual-ity has been completed. A consultation draft that summarizes findings was prepared and shared with the Government of Uzbekistan and a key Uzbek think tank, the Center for Economic Research (CER). Verbal feedback has been obtained from the Minister of Finance, and comments are expected from the Minister of Economy and the Utility Agency (Uzkummunizmat). Discussions have also been held with CER to organize a discussion seminar in March 2015 to debate methods and findings with policy-makers and researchers, provided permission from the Uzkummunizmat is obtained.

For 2015, planned follow-up activities include: (i) incorporating solicited feedback from the Uzkummunizmat in the final draft; (ii) organizing a dissemination event with CER to debate findings; (iii) raise awareness of the Poverty Social Impact Analysis (PSIA) methodology; and (iv) explore interest for fur-ther capacity building activities on the methodology.


Strengthening Irrigation Governance

(Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: US$170,000; TTL: Robertus Antonius Swinkels)The development objective of the Assessment of Factors that Influence the Quality of Local Irrigation Governance TA activity is to contribute to better irrigation water management in CA through the fol-lowing expected activity outcomes: (i) identifying factors and innovative practices that positively a!ect performance of local irrigation water management institutions; (ii) preparing an associated diagnostic tool that will help in the design of program interven-tions for ongoing or future irrigation operations; and (iii) facilitating exchange of good practice experi-ences and knowledge of what works among relevant

stakeholders across the region. Uzbekistan was iden-tified as a pilot for this activity.

Current distribution and management systems for irrigation water pose significant challenges to e!ective and e"cient water allocation in Uzbekistan and other CA countries. Irrigation water reforms face a number of governance deficiencies as water man-agement structures at both local and national levels frequently su!er from issues around transparency, accountability, and division of responsibility. Local and national governing institutions also tend to face financial sustainability challenges, being unable to finance repairs and maintenance, let alone invest-ment. At present, a low-level equilibrium (whereby most farmers settle for sub-optimal outcomes) appears to be the norm.

While considerable research has been carried out on Water User Associations (WUAs), much of it assumes that participation is the cornerstone to success, while insu"cient attention has been paid to incentives, costs, and benefits. Change in local level institutional arrangements is not easily induced through outside interventions, and more can be done to learn from existing innovations and to promote their scaling up. Despite the urgent need for practical solutions for irrigation water gov-ernance and management, significant knowledge gaps remain. Systematic analysis to identify factors of success and scaling up of good practices is rare. Irrigation and drainage schemes in Uzbekistan and other CA countries require better methods for diag-nosing local institutional arrangements for water management arrangements, identifying shortcom-ings, and proposing ideas for program interventions.

Progress has been made towards the first and second components of the objective. Data has been


gathered from eight case study sites on factors that influence the quality of local institutional arrange-ments for management of irrigation and drainage water. The data suggests that there is a large variation in performance of local water management institu-tions. A number of factors that appear to influence performance of local institutional arrangements have been identified. The findings should generate discus-sions around what can be done to further scale up the presence of these factors, and how they can be tracked on a more strategic scale at the national or project level to help ensure that the conditions for good local water management are in place.


Promoting Irrigation E"ciency

(Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: US$250,000; TTL: IJsbrand Harko de Jong)The overall project development objective of this activity is to assist the five CA countries in improving irrigation e"ciency by conducting thematic studies at the national level, strengthening capacities and institutions, and preparing National Action Plans for improving irrigation e"ciency.

The activity supported a study in Tajikistan to assess the economic and financial costs of inef-ficiency, improve understanding of the causes of wasteful water use, and identify opportunities to improve e"ciency. Strong interest in engaging with the Bank on similar studies has been expressed by Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, and it

is expected that these studies will be initiated in FY16. The Tajikistan study provided a number of important findings:

�Z Irrigated areas are currently under-supplied and irrigation e"ciency is as low as 30 percent. Improving irrigation e"ciency will therefore not lead to reduced abstractions or reduced pump-ing costs. Rather, improving e"ciency will lead to better irrigation and higher crop yields;

�Z Some of the most important sources of inef-ficiency are pump outages as a result of unreli-able electricity and excessive wear because of high silt loads;

�Z E!orts to transfer management responsibility to WUAs first need to ensure a reliable supply of water to the command area;

�Z Improving irrigation e"ciency from 30 to 60 percent would generate US$983 million in reduced Operations and Maintenance (O&M) costs and higher agricultural productivity for Tajikistan; and

�Z Irrigation e"ciency is a strategic resource to satisfy future demand, and is intricately associ-ated with water security at the national level. Improving water security might provide the best incentive to improve irrigation e"ciency.

The study included consultations with the donor community in CA on topics such as water sector reforms and how these can contribute to more e"-cient use of irrigation water. The final Tajikistan report identifies constraints and opportunities for improving irrigation e"ciency and is scheduled to be dissemi-nated in 2015. It is intended that the analytical work will strengthen capacities and assist in the prepara-tion of National Action Plans for improving irrigation e"ciency, which can be incorporated into investment operations. In addition to investments (in particular in improving the reliability of electricity supply and reducing the sediment load of the pumped water), follow-up activities may include capacity strengthen-ing of farmers, WUAs, and public irrigation service providers. The findings will be used in the design of future Bank-financed investment programs.


"e Energy-Water Linkages PillarIn 2014, several significant activities were concluded and a major e!ort on climate change accelerated. New activities were focused on leveraging diagnostic studies to build core capacity on energy and water security in the region, expanding Program activi-ties into new and innovative areas, and increas-ing and improving partnerships with beneficiaries and collaboration with regional institutions. Major concluded activities include the Rogun consulta-tions and a “Roadmap” for strengthening regional energy-water modeling and analytics as decision support systems. Multiple climate change activi-ties were funded, covering knowledge foundations, institutions, and investment preparation. There were also a number of important innovations and some strategic “starts,” such as an expansion of the knowl-edge network through student competitions and mobile applications for an open source data portal for water data. New activities pushed completed CAEWDP grants up the “value-added ladder,” includ-ing: implementation of the Roadmap in four sepa-rate activities, scoping of a new regional investment project under the ASBP-3, and a national workshop

in Turkmenistan that identified several opportunities for future partnership. Of particular note, the World Bank, in partnership with the UNRCCA, convened the First Deputy Prime Ministers meeting of the five CA countries to discuss water management. The discussions resulted in a request to host a subsequent gathering.

CAEWDP’s Energy-Water Linkages Pillar seeks to improve understanding of the interconnections between energy and water at the national and regional levels, through exploring the future impact of climate change, facilitating regional dialogue, and strengthening the information base. In 2014, progress was made with regard to the overall pillar objectives of:

�Z Expanding data management to enhance energy/water analysis;

�Z Supporting regional dialogue on at least two priority water and energy issues facilitated by regional and national organizations;

�Z Strengthening regional organizations capacity to facilitate regional dialogue; and

�Z Recognizing climate change adaptation impli-cations for both energy and water.


A synopsis of analytical development, institu-tional strengthening, and investment preparation activities in the Energy-Water Linkages Pillar is pro-vided below. Box 3 outlines the energy-water link-ages in CA in the context of climate change.


ECA Deep Dive: Leveraging Turn Down the Heat III ESW for Europe and Central Asia

(Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: US$300,000; TTL: Philippe Ambrosi)The objective of the ECA Deep Dive TA activity is to help initiate and/or strengthen an evidence-based dialogue on climate action among key stakeholders (e.g. policy makers, youth, and media) and lever-age the latest scientific analysis provided at the sub-regional level (Western Balkans, CA and Russia) under the Turn Down the Heat III report. While the main focus of Turn Down the Heat III is on deliver-ing a scientific diagnostic by drawing on latest vali-dated literature, the ECA Deep Dive TA contributes a region-specific background review, disseminates scientific findings from Turn Down the Heat III, and supports institutional capacity building in select ECA sub-regions (the Western Balkans, CA, and Russia).

This activity is expected to catalyze policy and operational dialogue on climate change by:

�Z Improving understanding of climate vulnerabili-ties, supporting institutional capacity develop-ment and helping to mobilize national/regional expertise, strengthening national and regional coalitions, and creating public demand for cli-mate actions.

�Z Facilitating the identification of additional proj-ect and analytical work to be carried out in the future and informing the region’s pipeline and country strategy designs (e.g., designing cross-sectoral climate-smart policies, programs, and actions under the umbrella of a CA Regional Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR+) and the planning of the second Central Asia Climate Change Knowledge Forum held from May 13–15, 2014).

The ECA Deep Dive is making a substantial contribution in CA towards the objective of catalyzing policy and operational dialogue on climate change. Progress towards this objective has

BOX 3: Energy-Water Linkages in the Context of Climate Change

Central Asia is one of the regions of the world most vulnerable to climate change. The World Bank’s 2009 report, Adapting to Climate Change in Central Asia, notes that average temperatures in the region have already increased by 0.5°C and are pro-jected to increase by 1.6° to 2.6°C sometime between 2030 and 2050. Regionally, climate change is projected to lead to higher tem-peratures, changes in precipitation patterns, increased incidents of flooding, and more severe and prolonged droughts, with cor-responding variable water availability. The region’s vulnerability to climate change is exacerbated by ine"cient resource use and aging infrastructure, limited enforcement of regulations, and degraded environment in some areas, such as the South Aral Sea.

Climate change a!ects all sectors vital to economic growth and development in the region, including energy, agriculture, and disaster risk management that also cut across national borders. Weather-related disasters are currently estimated to cost 1 percent of GDP per year in Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic. Adaptation will sooner rather than later become a requirement, rather than an option, for the region.

Policies and interventions to address cli-mate change vulnerabilities have the poten-tial to drive innovation, open up new areas of investment and private sector activity, and promote plant-level e"ciencies and eco-nomic savings. For example, in the agricultural sector, a clear plan to align agricultural poli-cies, develop capabilities of key agricultural institutions, and make needed investments in infrastructure and on-farm improvements could help o!set risks. In the energy sector, energy e"ciency and diversification could provide both immediate economic benefits and help build long-term climate resilience. Water demand in both sectors will emphasize the need for e!ective national and trans-boundary water management.


been achieved across the three dimensions of the activity’s results framework:

i. Knowledge Deepened: The activity is helping improve understanding of climate vulnerabili-ties and options to enhance climate resilience, notably through i) a comprehensive background review (e.g., mobilization of sectoral/country experts, both Bank and non-Bank) of CA spe-cific analysis in the Turn Down the Heat report; and ii) preparation of the document, entitled Towards Climate-Smart Solutions for Central Asia, which proposes no-regret measures in achieving climate resilience at the water-energy-agricul-ture nexus. The activity is also helping to mobi-lize and strengthen regional expertise on climate change, as evidenced by the March 2014 capac-ity building workshop in Potsdam, Germany that was attended by several delegates from CA and who are also part of the TWG.

ii. Strategy and Policy Informed: The background review of the Turn Down the Heat III report, an early draft of the report, and discussions with experts have provided scientific and technical input to the Climate Change Issues Note for Tajikistan, a knowledge product that will inform the new Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Tajikistan (2015–2018).

iii. Development Financing Informed: Early find-ings from the Turn Down the Heat III report, as well as a final draft of Towards Climate-Smart Solutions for Central Asia, were discussed with representatives from client countries at the Second Central Asia Climate Knowledge Forum held in May 2014 in Almaty, Kazakhstan and informed the design of the Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Central Asia (CAMP4CA). The findings also support climate-smart investments and capacity building for cli-mate vulnerable communities in these countries.

Assessment of the Role of Glaciers in Stream Flow from the Pamir and Tien Shan Mountains

(Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: US$150,000; TTL: Winston Yu)The objectives of this activity are to i) undertake a baseline assessment of the role of the glaciers in the volume and timing of the stream flow of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers, at the scale of the

glacierized mountain basins, with an ablation gradi-ent model; ii) assess the implications of a potential retreat of glaciers for the water resources of the Aral Basin; and iii) analyze GIS hypsometry and satellite imagery. This data could provide the fundamental organized information bases needed to evaluate findings of supply-use and climate change studies of the Amu and Syr Darya river basins.

The Assessment of the Role of Glaciers in Stream Flow from the Pamir and Tien Shan Mountains is based on available period-of-record stream flow data, a digital elevation model (DEM)-derived area-altitude distribution of the glaciers of each basin, Landsat-5 satellite imagery-derived basin and glacier extents, and an ablation gradient model. Since no current mass-balance measurements are available for these glaciers, an assumption of steady-state equilibrium was used in estimating current water and ice budgets. Regional values from studies in the high mountains of Asia are used to estimate values for the ablation gradient, equilibrium line altitude, and glacier net balance. The non-glacier compo-nents of runo! were approximated based on the seasonality of precipitation.

The assessment was not without its challenges. A major problem faced in attempting an assess-ment of the climate, glaciers, and stream flow of the upper Amu Darya Basin is the lack of a common data foundation on which to base the assessments. Conclusions from the study around mapping uncer-tainty included:

�Z Presently, there is no consensus on the amount of glacier ice at the headwaters of the Amu Darya River, a very fundamental factor in any


attempt to assess the potential impact of their retreat on the water resources of the river;

�Z Most existing studies do not su"ciently report on type of source used (map, aerial, satellite, etc.), source acquisition year, model type (vec-tor or raster), mapping approach, error assess-ment, catchment basin area, etc. Hence, any comparison of results from existing studies is di"cult and must be done with great caution: di!erent glacier area results will produce di!er-ent results in hydrologic models;

�Z Glaciers are only one example of the lack of organized data sets describing baseline condi-tions of climate, stream flow, and glacier mass balance characteristics. Without such data sets, operational forecast modeling is di"cult.

The activity has improved understanding of regional glacier/snow extent and its role in the hydrology of the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. This has helped to inform World Bank supply-use and climate change studies of the basins. The draft report was submitted in October 2014. The findings were presented at a UNRCCA-hosted regional work-shop in Dushanbe, Tajikistan in December 2014. The report will be disseminated in 2015.

Legal Analysis of the Transboundary Water Management Frameworks in Central Asia

(Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: US$100,000; TTL: Victor Bundi Mosoti)The objective of this activity is to contribute to a bet-ter understanding of the legal instruments regulating the use of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Rivers.

Di!erent riparian countries have expressed their views on the interpretation and application of legal

instruments regulating the use of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Rivers. This activity was created to provide a legal analysis of the regulatory framework for transboundary water management, including the rights and obligations of each riparian under the rel-evant instrument (e.g.,the 1995 Nukus Declaration, the 1987 Protocol 566). A draft report currently under review provides useful information regarding the regulatory frameworks for transboundary man-agement in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Rivers.

Central Asia Water Management Study

(Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: US$500,000; TTL: Benoit Paul Blarel)The objective of this activity is to communicate the key water resource management imperatives in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya riparian countries of CA. To do this, the activity assesses the economic, environmental, and social costs of inaction under a business-as-usual scenario, including limited regional cooperation among riparian countries, and identifies the key drivers for actions addressing water management.

Using the Basin Economic Allocation Model (BEAM)8, this study analyzes the economic incen-tives for improving water management in the five Central Asian countries located in the Aral Sea basin. It quantifies the physical and economic impacts of various policy and investment decisions in the energy, agriculture, water supply and sanitation, and power sectors under cooperative or non-cooperative water management frameworks. The study also analyzes the economic impacts of climate variability and climate change under di!erent policy and investment decisions made by the countries in the region. Finally, the study looks at the economic incentives to engage in cooperative optimization of water management both in terms of net benefits to the whole basin and in term of incidence of costs and benefits among countries.

The main report, sectoral notes, and country notes for this study are being prepared. They will inform water sector investments and policies in the

8 BEAM is a multi-country, multi-sector economic model custom-ized for the Aral Sea Basin and the five CA countries that optimizes water allocation across di!erent uses (irrigated agriculture, power generation, water supply & sanitation, and the environment) in order to maximize economic welfare derived from these water-related services under various investment and policy choices and exogenous shocks. Initially developed by the Executive Committee of IFAS with the support of USAID, it was significantly expanded and upgraded with World Bank and CAEWDP funding.


CA countries and promote regional cooperation for sustainable water resources management in the region. The upgraded BEAM model will be returned to IFAS as an open source application. A training component, funded by CAEWDP, will accompany this transfer.

Central Asia Energy-Water Modeling

(Activity Status: Completed; CAEWDP Grant: US$350,000; TTL: Daryl Fields)This objective of this activity was to develop a strengthened energy-water model and analytical framework for CA. The first phase—completed in 2014—identified the needs and scope of work for energy-water modeling and analysis. A second phase will undertake the identified work.

The overall objective of Phase 1 was to establish a “Roadmap” for strengthening regional energy-water modeling and analytics (decision support systems) that all countries accepted. The “Roadmap” was based on two sub-tasks: (i) a consultative process to identify needs and parameters for modeling (and possible associated institutional frameworks), incor-porating input from each country into a joint view of a regional energy-water analytical framework; and (ii) a demonstration “first generation” model of the basin’s water resources based on publicly available data (e. g., remote sensing, satellite imagery).

With the exception of the first, all outcome indicators associated with Phase 1 of this activity were achieved:

i. Establish a common vision of modeling needs and reach agreement on model architecture (see Box 4);

ii. Establish a foundation for trust and incentive at the national levels for further development;

iii. Identify institutional principles to support fur-ther model development;

iv. Begin a process to even capacity across national experts; and

v. Enhance awareness of new modeling technol-ogy and approaches.

Outputs included:

i. Establishing needs and priorities for model and analytical development through reconnaissance consultations, national workshops, a regional workshop, liaising with regional organizations, and an inventory and comparative analysis of existing regional models;

ii. A six-country workshop (including all five CA countries plus Afghanistan);

iii. Eight agreed-upon principles for cooperation on a strengthened knowledge platform for energy-water linkages;

iv. A regional “Roadmap” for improving analysis for IWRM encompassing 12 activities in data, mod-eling and analysis, and governance and capacity; and

v. First generation (demonstration) model to improve energy/water analysis—by establish-ing a Dynamic Information Framework (DIF), a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and a sub-basin model to illustrate water-energy and infrastructure.

Of the seven “Roadmap” activities assumed by the World Bank (another five were taken up by partners SDC and UNECE), five are underway and two are being planned. Significantly, the “Roadmap” and its activities are also being followed up by the preparation of a regional investment project focused on the knowledge/information platform for water management, encompassing both national and regional-scale work programs. This activity helped the work program leverage additional resources and establish partnerships with SDC, USAID, and UNECE for the regional workshop. Box 4 elaborates on “Roadmapping” and reflection on the broader process.

Central Asia Water and Energy Portal

(Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: US$300,000; TTL: Nagaraja Rao Harshadeep)The objective of the Central Asia Water and Energy Portal activity is to improve public domain access to


basic spatial information related to water resources and energy in a regional setting, using modern online tools to reach a wide variety of stakeholders. It is one of the activities identified in the Roadmap for Strengthening Analysis of IWRM.

Key sub-activities within this activity include: i. Scoping-Level Activities: The first activity is to

develop a more detailed understanding of available spatial and temporal data already in the public-domain from global, regional, and national sources (including from Bank and partner-financed activities) relevant for energy and water, as well as other data sources that can potentially be included. This activity will also build on the initial scoping of key institutions that could also serve as part of a potential network to supply, manage, and/or utilize infor-mation from the portal and the other knowl-edge products proposed. The activity will also explore case studies of how such public-domain portal information could be of use to di!erent typologies of users especially related to energy and water.

ii. Development of a Public-Domain Online Portal: This activity will aim to develop a state-of-the-art public domain online mapping portal to access basic spatial information relating to water resources and energy in CA. This will include an online GIS service for accessing information relating to a number of themes (e.g. administra-tive, climate, water resources, energy systems, and other environmental, social, economic, and institutional aspects) and visualizing these in innovative ways. The information would include existing public domain information services from a number of global knowledge providers (e.g., NASA, NOAA, USGS, ESA), as well as addi-tional data in the public domain from the World Bank, other development partners, and regional and national organizations.

iii. Improving Portal Use and Scaling Up: This activ-ity will aim to support the sustainable use and enhancement of the knowledge base and tools developed as part of this e!ort (see Box 5).

The activity has made substantial progress towards improving public-domain online access of the relevant spatial data especially through the development and promotion of a new Mobile app. In addition, this activity is now also geared

BOX 4: Roadmapping” and Reflection on the Broader Process

Roadmapping: The “Roadmap” was produced based on extensive consultations and inputs from national spe-cialists, as well as the first-ever six-country workshop on Strengthening Analysis of Integrated Water Resources Management. The “Roadmap” outlined a new set of prin-ciples, constituting a paradigm shift in regional coordina-tion, and introduced the use of modern technologies. It opened a dialogue on modeling that specifically highlighted national perspectives, broadening the focus from existing regional institutions. As such, it helped establish a founda-tion for trust and incentivizing cooperation at national levels. The “Roadmap” also initiated a process to build the capacity of national experts, which is recognized as an essential element of e!ective transboundary dialogue.

The activity fell short of its sub-objective to establish a common vision of modeling needs and reach agreement on model architecture for a Basin energy-water model because (i) conditions for a regionally cooperative approach were much weaker than anticipated; (ii) there was a direct request by counterparts not to develop another model; and (iii) the need for a system of models (including operational models) emerged, rather than a single basin-wide model. The “Roadmap” specifically responds to the strengthening of enabling conditions and exploring complementary opera-tional models.

Reflection on the Broader Process: On reflection, this grant exposed the depth of need in modeling and analytical work in the Aral Sea Basin to support evidenced-based dia-logue. Early reconnaissance was important as it enabled the team to build a base for the regional workshop and guide discussions on relevant principles and national perspectives that were not previously fully expressed at the technical level. Early reconnaissance, followed by national workshops, avoided costly investments in new models that were not priorities for the countries. The findings of the 2012 World Bank report “Reaching across the Waters: Facing the Risks of Cooperation in International Waters” by Subramanian et. al., which included a CA case study, lend support to CAEWDP’S shift of focus to reducing disparities in capacity and involve-ment among national experts and regional institutions.

The introduction of state-of-the-art technologies for data and modeling was well received and provided new ave-nues for strengthening the knowledge platform. Establishing a base for further work, follow up (Phase 2) is essential to reap the benefits of this activity and in encouraging more extensive investment per the proposed regional project.


towards inspiring even more public data access relating to water resources as part of the prepara-tion of the proposed Central Asia Water Resources Management (CA-WaRM) project. Consultants were engaged and a number of public-domain datasets and services relevant to this activity were identified. A primer document was drafted to showcase key public-domain datasets and services, and a mobile application called ‘Spatial Agent’9 was developed and launched10 (with co-financing from other funds) to provide access to public-domain datasets. The work was showcased11 in several fora in the region to a wide array of stakeholders (e.g., regional organiza-tions, national ministry o"cials, academies of sci-ences, academia, and development partners).

The activity is now being rolled into the prepara-tion of a new activity—a flagship regional project on

9 The Spatial Agent App can be downloaded from http://apps.worldbank.org.10 The app was launched on iOS for Apple iPad and iPhone and is downloadable from the AppStore; an Android version that has been fully developed is now under review by the World Bank ITS and WPO teams and is expected to be in the Google Store shortly. A web ver-sion is also being developed for launch in 2015.11 A demonstration video (showing an early version of this tool in a GIS Conference Plenary (before an audience of 16,000 people) can be viewed at the following link (see the last ten minutes of the video): http://video.esri.com/watch/3660/open-access-with-arcgis-open-data.

Ca-WaRM (see section on “Investment Preparation” below). The CA-WaRM project has a strong focus on regional and national activities relating to informa-tion sharing, use, and modernization of associated water resources and hydrometeorology agencies. It is also inspiring greater IT elements of another regional project, the CAMP4CA. The products devel-oped as part of this activity have been invaluable in facilitating discussions and providing a visualization of how enhanced shared data could be communi-cated and used. Client and development partner sta! feedback on demonstrations of these products

BOX 5: The Improving Portal Use and Scaling Up Sub-Activity

This sub-activity aims to support the sustainable use and enhancement of the knowledge base and tools developed as part of this e!ort, including:

# Development of knowledge products (including thematic Atlases, 3-D maps, interactive tools, reflections from potential users, improved social media linkages);

# Development of an innovative Mobile app to allow easy access through an emerging generation of new tablet devices to reach a growing generation of tech-savvy stakeholders;

# Interaction with users: Capacity building and training activities conducted in coordination with other CAEWDP-related training activities and events will promote exchanges of experiences. The aim would not only be to dis-seminate and improve utilization of the portal and its associated datasets and knowledge products, but also to strengthen the capacity of the community of practice (CoP). Additionally, this could encourage other regional/national participants and partners to help improve the portal and to also provide some of these services on their own portals on a demand-driven basis. The regional CoP would also be nurtured and networked in this regard (e.g., consultation group composed of key regional/national stakeholders and partners); and

# Development of a scaling up action plan, building on the roll-out experiences and outlining the next phase of possible activities (e.g., improving incentives for public-domain access to available data, supporting hydrome-teorology services and linkages with existing relevant projects, supporting integration with planning and manage-ment decision support tools, and financing knowledge partnerships) and improving sustainability.

http://apps.worldbank.org

http://apps.worldbank.org

http://video.esri.com/watch/3660/open-access-with-arcgis-open-data

http://video.esri.com/watch/3660/open-access-with-arcgis-open-data


has generally been positive with regard to their potential.


Central Asia Knowledge Network

(Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: US$300,000; TTL: Tatyana Leonova)The overall development objective of the Central Asia Knowledge Network is to foster cooperation and knowledge exchange among local and regional insti-tutions and practitioners, thus establishing a regional network of knowledge institutions and CoPs of tech-nical specialists. It is one of the activities identified in the Roadmap for Strengthening Analysis of IWRM.

The Knowledge Network (KN) o!ers advice to its members through di!erent forms of knowledge shar-ing, experience exchange, collaboration, and out-reach. The Network helps equip national knowledge institutions with cutting-edge curriculum/knowledge and skills to build the capacity of government o"-cials and other professionals in water, energy, agricul-ture, and climate change-related issues.

Activity outcomes in 2014 included:

i. Virtual CoPs and the umbrella knowledge net-work in CA established and activated;

ii. Water-Energy-Climate sector specific learn-ing and capacity building activities within the CAEWDP program facilitated and delivered; and

iii. Regional student competition of master thesis implemented.

To date, the umbrella KN platform, the Central Asia Knowledge Alliance for Development, (CAsKADe) was established, with CoPs created and active in the Collaboration for Development (C4D) platform. Box 6 outlines some of the KN and CoP activities undertaken in 2014. The activities of the CoP on transboundary water monitoring and disaster early warning in Kazakhstan have been sup-ported, with the aim to expand this CoP work to other CA countries.

United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA) Cooperation

(Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: US$122,000; TTL: Daryl Fields)

The objective of this activity is to provide incremen-tal financing to the UNRCCA’s dialogue initiative on a framework agreement for sharing transboundary waters.

The goal of the UNRCCA is to assist and support the CA Governments in building their conflict pre-vention capacities through enhanced dialogue, con-fidence building measures, and genuine partnership in order to respond to existing threats and emerging challenges in the CA region. Within its Program of Action for 2012–2014, the UNRCCA:

�Z Supports initiatives designed to prevent conflict and strengthen bilateral and regional coopera-tion, particularly in relation to transnational threats, water management, and promoting border security;

�Z Helps to develop an early warning system in relation to water management in Central Asia, taking into account the interests of all Central Asian states; and

�Z Works closely with the EC-IFAS to promote early warning and cooperation in relation to preventing transboundary water disputes.

CAEWDP’s financing supported the attendance of international experts at a five-country dialogue to improve understanding of options for dispute reso-lution as part of a legal framework for the manage-ment of transboundary waters in the Aral Sea Basin, based on norms and principles of international law.

CAEWDP Riparian Dialogue

(Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: US$610,000; TTL: Daryl Fields)Since 2008, the Central Asia Energy-Water Riparian Dialogue has engaged the governments of the Aral Sea Basin (Central Asia and Afghanistan), civil societies, and diplomatic and development agen-cies in a program to share information and analysis from the assessment studies of the proposed Rogun Hydropower project. The consultation process is unique and innovative for CA and has vastly increased the transparency and scrutiny of the stud-ies in a highly charged political environment. It dem-onstrates alternative, good-practice approaches to energy-water dialogue.

Demonstrating international good practice in consultation on transboundary projects, stakehold-ers were provided with information on the study


findings (on technical, social, and environmental issues) and were invited to comment on the studies at each key step. Face-to-face consultations were also held across all six countries. CAEWDP-funded International Panels of Experts attended all consulta-tions and were responsible for translating comments into formal recommendations to the Government of Tajikistan. These comments were tracked through the process.

The results of the dialogue were measured in terms of engagement, transparency, impacts on the studies, and political tensions. Stakeholders repeat-edly expressed appreciation for the process. A large community of stakeholders (over 60 civil society organizations, all 6 riparian governments, and over 40 members of the development and diplomatic communities) became better informed of the stud-ies and more knowledgeable about the potential benefits, impacts, and risks of the proposed project. All country governments attended the final set of consultation meetings. Specific topics raised by stakeholders were incorporated into the study, in particular related to dam safety and downstream flow impacts, and several project design aspects were changed as a result.

The fifth and final round on consultations held in June/July 2014 focused on the draft final Techno-Economic Assessment Study (TEAS) and the draft final Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA). The outputs of the fifth assessment (as well as all previous consultations) are available at www.worldbank.org/eca/rogun. The meetings concluded with a request to continue the dialogue at a higher level of engagement.

Central Asia Regional Economic Program (CAREC) Engagement12

(Activity Status: Phase 1 Completed, Phase 2 Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: US$310,000; TTL: Yuriy Myroshnychenko, Daryl Fields)The CAREC Energy Sector Coordination Committee (ESCC)13—co-chaired by the ADB and the World Bank—is a key regional platform for energy issues in CA. It provides a platform to convene energy experts and decision-makers of CAREC countries and is instru-mental in implementing CAREC’s energy strategy.

The development objective of the ESCC is to facilitate dialogue among energy specialists in CA along with other neighboring countries, with a goal of increasing cooperation and energy security in the region. The ESCC oversees implementation of an energy action plan and specific analytical and capacity-building initiatives through its committee and sub-committee meetings. The ESCC provides a unique forum for countries to discuss and explore options to strengthen trade in the region.

Presentations delivered during two ESCC meet-ings held in April 2014 in Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic, and September 2014 in Beijing, China spurred a substantial exchange of information and ideas. The country delegations expressed great interest

12 This activity description represents two successive grants: the first from 2010 to 2013 and the second from 2013 to 2016, worth US$60,000 and US$250,000, respectively.13 The ESCC is one of four working committees of the CAREC pro-gram, an ADB-hosted partnership of ten countries (Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, China, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) supported by six multilater-al institutions (ADB, Islamic Development Bank, JICA, USAID, UNDP and World Bank) working together to promote accelerated growth and poverty reduction through cooperation.

BOX 6: Knowledge Network and Communities of Practice Activities in 2014

To foster cross-country student / academic / practitioner cooperation and dialogue, the knowledge network and CoPs organized the following in 2014:

# Student Competition: A regional Master’s thesis competition and student conference to foster the exchange of ideas, approaches, and cross-sector linkages. 40 participants from the CA countries attended the regional conference.

# Academic CoP: A platform was created for academics to engage in electronic discussions to build cooperation and dialogue around riparian and energy issues in the region. Face-to-face training of the trainers involved 32 participants from CA countries.

# CoP on Transboundary Risk Monitoring: Multiple face-to-face and e-discussions on regional transboundary risk monitoring activities informed public debate and decision-making. 25 participants from the Central Asian coun-tries attended the face-to-face meeting.


in learning about international experiences. For instance, a session on knowledge sharing on regional power exchanges in the Balkans elicited an extensive exchange of information and ideas. The CA countries endorsed proposed next steps, subsequent bilateral technical discussions, and a regional workshop.

With the conclusion of CAEWDP’s work on the 2010–2012 ESCC Energy Action Plan (EAP), a follow-on activity, CAREC’s Energy Sector Coordination and Cooperation activity, was developed to engage and provide continued support to ESCC.

An Energy Work Program for 2013-2015 was pre-pared, building on the 2010-2012 ESCC EAP achieve-ments and addressing its constraints. Several new CAEWDP activities are included in the work program. The new program includes four CAEWDP activities:

i. Developing the Central Asia—South Asia Energy Corridor: This component extends the focus from the five CA countries to South Asia, including cross-border projects and programs for the sale of energy from CA to South Asia, all transiting Afghanistan.

ii. Resolving Regional Energy Dispatch Issues: As a follow up to the recommendations of the economic study of electricity trade undertaken under the EAP, more detailed country-specific studies and consultations will be undertaken.

iii. Managing Energy-Water Linkages: This com-ponent will implement the roadmap for

strengthening analysis of energy-water linkages prepared under the EAP.

iv. Capacity Building and Knowledge Management: The EAP will deliver a revised program of capac-ity building, developed by ESCC members.14

The ESCC and the CAEWDP remain well coor-dinated, and supporting the continued existence of the ESCC is a cornerstone activity for CAEWDP.

Central Asia Climate Knowledge Forum

(Activity Status: Completed; CAEWDP Grant: US$435,000; TTL: Philippe Ambrosi)The development objective of the knowledge forum activity was to foster knowledge sharing, maintain and improve dialogue with client countries, and to encourage greater collaboration, clarity, and cohe-sion on future climate-related activities in the region and on emerging strategic priorities among bilateral/multilateral donors and client countries.

Building on the successful experience from the first Central Asia Climate Knowledge Forum, the

14 Components of the new Energy Work Program not funded by CAEWDP include: (i) mobilizing funds for building energy assets, encompassing an assessment of the capacity of each country to finance projects from its own resources and, if necessary, the iden-tification of other potential sources of financing, including private investment and regional project development facilities; and (ii) implementing Medium-Term Priority Projects (MTPP), which will finalize an ESCC list of priority projects to be implemented over the medium-term (2012-2014), taking into account the project prioritiza-tion plan outlined in the RPMP.

Participants of the May 2012 CAREC ESCC meeting, including CAEWDP Program Manager Daryl Fields (front row, third from left) and Energy Development Pillar Lead Sunil Kumar Khosla (second row, third from right). Photo credit: CAREC.


proposed activities in FY14 and FY15 aimed at con-tinuing e!orts towards the creation of a platform to promote knowledge exchange and information shar-ing on a number of issues around climate-resilient development and green growth. Additionally, vari-ous tools and knowledge products were developed to address and incorporate climate change consider-ations into policy design and planning. The prepara-tion of the Forum was cited as a good example of team work and collaboration across sectors, net-works, and World Bank Group institutions. CAEWDP aims to make the Central Asia Climate Knowledge Forum a flagship regional event, supporting all the CAEWDP pillar activities.

This activity made progress towards the objec-tive of fostering knowledge sharing, maintaining and improving dialogue with client countries, and encouraging greater collaboration, clarity, and cohe-sion on future climate-related activities among development partners. Development partners sup-ported a regional approach to climate resilience in CA. During a session entitled “Development Partner Roundtable on Financing Options,” it was acknowledged that development partners are mak-ing substantial contributions to climate change adaptation and mitigation e!orts through regional and national programs. The Forum also drew nearly 200 participants from CA national governments, regional organizations, CSOs, national and regional universities and research centers, the World Bank, and other development partners active in the region—twice as many participants as in the inau-gural Forum. The Forum’s session on “Civil Society Participation for Climate Resilience” showcased sev-eral success stories, demonstrating that champions within civil society are already at work in the region. CSOs announced the establishment of the Central Asia CSO Climate Association, a coalition of envi-ronment and climate CSOs from all five countries, and expressed readiness and strong interest to be included in the national TWG teams for developing the Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Central Asia (CAMP4CA).

This activity helped mobilize and strengthen regional expertise for multi-sector, cross-country collaboration on climate change. The World Bank facilitated regional expertise by forming the Central Asia Technical Working Group (TWG) on Climate Change. The TWG is helping to convene a durable network of experts across CA, who can work

collegially across borders and sectors to provide advice and champion climate-smart solutions at both national and regional levels. The group met for the first time in March 2014 and has since estab-lished itself as an e!ective counterpart to advance thinking on collaborative solutions for climate action in the region. In short, the TWG has dem-onstrated vision, expertise, and passion in helping shape the concept for collectively addressing climate change in CA. In collaboration with development partners, CAEWDP established the building blocks for a regional program for climate resilience with CAMP4CA.

Capacity Strengthening for IWRM Modeling

(Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: US$365,000; TTL: Daryl Fields)The development objective of the Capacity Strengthening for Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) Modeling TA activity is to strengthen knowledge and modeling skills leading to a more e!ective base on which to identify mod-eling architecture options and priorities for IWRM modeling in CA. With the outcomes of strengthened capacity and increased knowledge, awareness, and confidence, the TA contributes to creating a more level playing field and a more transparent dialogue across the six countries, and to mitigating recognized risks to transboundary water cooperation - namely capacity and knowledge. These risks manifest in two major ways: either countries perceive they have less negotiating capacity than their co-riparians have; or countries perceive they do not have adequate or accurate information about the basin. Thus, knowledge and skill expansion, training, and studies help to meet gaps in capacity and knowledge, and provide support for developing new skills. This activ-ity was identified in the Roadmap for Strengthening Analysis for IWRM.

Partnering with the Global Water Partnership (GWP)15, the CA-WaRM activity was initiated in May 2014 through consultations in each of the five countries to clarify objectives. The concept was well received as a necessary step to begin capac-ity strengthening and understanding the value of

15 The GWP’s vision is for a water secure world. Its mission is to support the sustainable development and management of water resources at all levels. GWP was founded in 1996 by the World Bank, the United Nations Development Programme, and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency to foster integrated water resource management.


modeling and other analytical tools. Three major tasks were completed over the period:

i. The five-day Russian-language BasinIT course was piloted with participants from academia and middle-management technical specialists from all six countries (including Afghanistan);

ii. National engagement on strengthening IWRM was achieved in Turkmenistan, with water specialists at a cross-sectoral and inter-agency workshop on IWRM;

iii. With the Scientific Information Centre of the Interstate Committee on Water Coordination, the basin organizations and national representa-tives convened senior modeling experts from across the region to (i) review the most cur-rent river basin models (specifically the BEAM, ASBmm and AralDIF models); and (ii) advise on the design and structure of a longer term training program. The meeting produced a draft curriculum to be pilot tested in 2015. This “Model Experts Group” planning meeting was one of the first opportunities for a select group of specialists from all six Aral Sea Basin countries to discuss, across national lines, the appropriate direction and scope for modeling and training.


Climate Adaptation & Mitigation Program for Central Asia (CAMP4CA)

(Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: US$150,000; TTL: Angela Armstrong)The objective of this activity is to increase meaning-ful collaboration among CA stakeholders (govern-ment representatives and technical experts from line ministries/agencies from the CA countries, regional institutions, knowledge and learning institu-tions, CSOs, and development partners) to improve national and regional resilience to climate change. The activity is supporting the preparation, appraisal, and early implementation of the proposed Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Central Asia (CAMP4CA), building on CAEWDP’s Central Asia Climate Knowledge Forum activity.

CAMP4CA will enhance regional coordination and access to improved climate change knowledge services for key stakeholders and support vulnerable communities in implementing climate investments. To date, the activity has supported preparation and delivery of a face-to-face meeting of the CAMP4CA TWG in Almaty, Kazakhstan, held from November 13-14, 2014 (the first output). Continued engagement among other stakeholders, including Development Partners and CSOs active in the field of climate change in CA, has also been carried out. The objective of the TWG meeting was to review CAMP4CA’s scope and activities, monitoring indica-tors, and institutional arrangements (including World Bank fiduciary and safeguard requirements). Overall, there was broad consensus among all countries on CAMP4CA design and implementation arrange-ments. Next steps include:

i. Consultation between the TWG and mem-bers of the CA Interstate Commission on Sustainable Development (ICSD) on options for ICSD’s participation in CAMP4CA’s regional implementation;

ii. A face-to-face meeting of the TWG (second out-put under the activity) in January 2015; and

iii. A workshop with development partners in early February 2015 to discuss options for collabora-tion around CAMP4CA, as well as review of ongoing development partner activities, such as the CAEWDP Riparian Dialogue.


The project is currently scheduled for World Bank Board decision in June 2015.

Central Asia Water Resources Management Project

(Activity Status: Planned; CAEWDP Grant: TBD; TTL: Nagaraja Rao Harshadeep)A Memorandum of Understanding between the EC-IFAS and the World Bank prescribes a new regional investment project as part of the implemen-tation of the ASBP-3. Specifically, the World Bank, supported by CAEWDP, will facilitate the techni-cal analysis, dialogue, and investments needed to strengthen the information and knowledge base for water resources monitoring, planning, and coor-dination. The project, which was initiated on Bank budget resources, will leverage several completed CAEWDP activities, including support for the original preparation of ASBP-3, the “Roadmap” for strength-ening the analysis of IWRM, and a data portal and model capacity building.

TRUST FUND MANAGEMENT

Participants of a World Bank Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and Middle East and North Africa (MNA) trust fund administration workshop— including Abena Aku"o-Akoto from CAEWDP (first row, second from right)—in Montpelier, France, March 2014.

TRUST FUND MANAGEMENT 35

Program Administration

Risks to the Program are regularly monitored, as is the ongoing validity of the objectives, results framework, and program structure (i.e., the three pillars

and their components). As of the end of 2014, the Program objective remains valid, and its structure has proved well suited to capturing the range of relevant activities, while providing flexibility to integrate new sectors such as water supply and bal-ancing national and regional agendas (e.g., specific focus on Tajikistan sustainable energy).

Human resources added in late 2013 have improved coordination e!orts, accelerated activ-ity initiation, and further strengthened cooperation between CAEWDP and the World Bank’s internal work plan. The present team is led by a Program Manager and includes one Partnership Specialist, three Pillar Leaders, and one Program Assistant with cross support from the World Bank communications unit. In 2014, the team continued to provide support to CA activities in project formulation, implementa-tion, monitoring and evaluation (M&E), as well as facilitating the undertaking of various other capacity-building activities.

Donor EngagementThe Program hosted two Donor Advisory Committee (DAC) meetings in 2014. The May 2014 DAC meeting focused on the financial and narrative update of the Program, with particular reference to the strategic direction of the Program in the next two years. The World Bank’s Country Director for Central Asia led a discussion on the strategic direction and vision of the Program, providing an overview of (i) country priorities; (ii) strategic priorities; and (iii) high value-added opportunities for CAEWDP. Key messages from this meeting were as follows:

�Z CAEWDP symbolizes the sharpening intellec-tual basis for the World Bank Energy and Water Program in Central Asia;

�Z CAEWDP plays a role in increasing investments in the region’s water resources management; and

�Z CAEWDP should continue to strengthen its focus on regional institutions.

The message was well received by the CAEWDP stakeholders in attendance, who also provided a response to the World Bank’s vision and a summary of their experiences and activities in the region.

The November 2014 DAC meeting focused on the implementation of activities, new activities, and understanding development partners’ work in

TABLE 1: MDTF Total Pledges 2014

Donor Currency USD

Date Currency Amount Pledged Amount Received Amount Received

United Kingdom (DFID)

9/22/2011 GBP 940,000 940,000 1,450,420

4/2/2013 GBP 2,330,000 330,000 498,597

12/2/2013 GBP 500,000 821,450

12/19/2013 GBP 500,000 816,850

12/18/2014 GBP 500,000 781,100

GBP 3,270,000 2,770,000 4,368,417

Switzerland (SECO)

2/28/2014 USD 3,710,000 3,710,000 3,710,000

USD 3,710,000 3,710,000 3,710,000

European Union (DG DEVCO)

9/5/2013 EUR 1,000,000 500,000 659,650

EUR 1,000,000 500,000 659,650

United States (USAID)

11/13/2014 USD 1,000,000 — —

USD 1,000,000 — —


the region. Much of the discussion was around the exchange of ideas and program learning from the field to improve implementation. A Program evalu-ation was discussed and the terms of reference was shared with the DAC. The evaluation will be review-ing the initial single donor funding by SECO and par-ticular attention will be paid to the results framework of the MDTF to strengthen and augment it.

DONOR COMMITMENTS AND CONTRIBUTIONSTotal funds pledged through a signed legal agree-ment by Program donors in the MDTF represent close to 28 percent of the total funding target of US$40 million over ten years. As of 31 December 2014, the MDTF pledges totaled US$11.3 million (Table 1). Notably, in 2014, USAID made their first pledge of US$1 million, joining previous pledges by DFID, SECO, and the European Union (DG DEVCO).

Financial ManagementPORTFOLIO SUMMARY FOR THE MULTI!DONOR TRUST FUNDThe MDTF grant allocation and disbursement details—as of December 31, 2014—are presented below.

AllocationsBy the end of 2014, CAEWDP MDTF-approved grants totaled just over US$6.9 million for 31 activi-ties, up from US$4.1 million and 22 activities in the preceding year (Table 2).

DisbursementsThe financial picture was very encouraging in 2014 as the aim at the start of the year to ramp up dis-bursement was achieved (see Figure 4). Based on the allocations detailed above, the approved activities undertook disbursements as agreed in the respective legal agreements and payment calendars, for a total of US$4.21 million in 2014, representing 61 percent

of total allocations (Table 3). Disbursements have increased year-on-year.

Among program pillars, Energy-Water Linkages accounts for about 58 percent of program grants while Energy Development accounts for 23 per-cent. The remaining grants fund Water Productivity (12 percent) and strategic program management. Overall expenditures (disbursements plus commit-ment) were 79 percent of approved grants.

Outreach and CommunicationsAt this point in the program, strong and e!ective communication to stakeholders on progress towards the complex goals and objectives of CAEWDP will solidify confidence and engagement of govern-ments, stakeholders, and partners in the Program. In line with the Program’s focus on clear outcomes and results, the management team has focused on capturing and communicating results at regional and national levels. CAEWDP is in the process of updat-ing an external and internal webpage to allow pro-gram activities to be shared and disseminated with a wider audience. A communications strategy is also being developed to support program delivery and to boost impact-focused outreach activities.

In 2014, CAEWDP produced communication materials that were disseminated to partners, stake-holders, and the wider development community and were profiled at international and regional events. With the completion of a formal CAEWDP brochure and logo, the Program significantly increased its presence in international events: the program logo featured at Stockholm Water Week (Stockholm); the Second Climate Knowledge Forum (Almaty); the 11th Annual Meeting of the International Water Resource Economics Consortium (Washington, D.C.); and the Rogun consultations (CA).

TRUST FUND MANAGEMENT 37

TABLE 2: MDTF—Approved Grants 2014

Activities Grants

Power Supply Options Study (TAJ) 151,880

Tajikistan Energy Sector Dialogue 170,000

Kyrgyz Republic: E"ciency improvements of the DH System* 80,000

Heating and Energy E"ciency Assessment for the Building Sector of the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan 170,000

Energy Vulnerability to Climate Change 50,000

Kazakhstan: Electricity Market Options * 200,000

Enhancing Regional Power Trade in CA 180,000

Tajikistan - Advisory Support for the Regional Trade Initiatives Project 300,000

Kyrgyz Republic - Advisory Support for the Regional Trade Initiatives Project 300,000

Central Asia Energy-Water Modeling 350,000

Central Asia Water Management 500,000

Central Asia Knowledge Network 300,000

Central Asia Water and Energy Portal 300,000

Capacity Strengthening for IWRM Modeling 365,000

CAEWDP Riparian Dialogue 610,000

Central Asia: CAREC Energy Sector Coordination 250,000

Central Asia Energy Sector Coordinating Committee 60,000

UNRCCA Cooperation 122,000

Legal Analysis of the Transboundary Water Management Frameworks in Central Asia 100,000

Exploration of Technical and institutional Options for Water Resources Development in the Vaksh Cascade 30,000

ECA Deep Dive: Leveraging Turn Down the Heat III ESW for Europe And Central Asia 300,000

Assessment of the Role of Glaciers in Stream Flow from the Pamir and Tien Shan Mountains 150,000

Central Asia Climate Change Knowledge Forum 435,000

Climate Adaptation & Mitigation Program for Central Asia 150,000

Promoting Irrigation E"ciency in Central Asia 250,000

Strengthening Irrigation Governance 170,000

Social Impact Analysis of Water Supply and Sanitation Services in Central Asia 170,000

Analysis of Water Supply and Sewerage Services in Central Asia 270,000

Program Management and Administration 454,480

Total 6,938,360

*These grants were created late in 2014 as a result will be reported in the 2015 Progress Report.


TABLE 3: MDTF Disbursements 2014

Activities Disbursement CommitmentsAvailable Balance

Power Supply Options Study (TAJ) 151,880 - -

Tajikistan Energy Sector Dialogue 146,016 - 23,984

Kyrgyz Republic: E"ciency improvements of the DH System* - 31,500 48,500

Heating and Energy E"ciency Assessment for the Building Sector of the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan

149,024 13,000 7,976

Energy Vulnerability to Climate Change 6,225 6,440 37,335

Kazakhstan: Electricity Market Options * - - 200,000

Enhancing Regional Power Trade in CA 59,211 - 30,789

Tajikistan - Advisory Support for the Regional Trade Initiatives Project - - 300,000

Kyrgyz Republic - Advisory Support for the Regional Trade Initiatives Project - - 300,000

Central Asia Energy-Water Modeling 346,270 - 3,730

Central Asia Water Management 451,492 6,627 41,881

Central Asia Knowledge Network 117,557 16,428 166,015

Central Asia Water and Energy Portal 163,248 77,607 59,145

Capacity Strengthening for IWRM Modeling 129,361 105,534 130,105

CAEWDP Riparian Dialogue 578,684 24,011 7,305

Central Asia: CAREC Energy Sector Coordination 119,936 - 5,064

Central Asia Energy Sector Coordinating Committee 57,314 700 1,986

UNRCCA Cooperation 109,392 - 12,608

Legal Analysis of the Transboundary Water Management Frameworks in Central Asia 21,295 8,748 69,957

Exploration of Technical and institutional Options for Water Resources Development in the Vaksh Cascade

17,247 1,124 11,629

ECA Deep Dive: Leveraging Turn Down the Heat III ESW for Europe And Central Asia 160,954 21,335 17,711

Assessment of the Role of Glaciers in Stream Flow from the Pamir and Tien Shan Mountains

72,376 - 77,624

Central Asia Climate Change Knowledge Forum 434,786 - 214

Climate Adaptation & Mitigation Program for Central Asia 107,458 17,421 25,121

Promoting Irrigation E"ciency in Central Asia 198,870 - 51,130

Strengthening Irrigation Governance 158,854 11,084 62

Social Impact Analysis of Water Supply and Sanitation Services in Central Asia 168,730 - 1,270

Analysis of Water Supply and Sewerage Services in Central Asia - 205,880 64,120

Program Management and Administration 288,343 27,235 54,902

Total 4,214,523 233,115 1,750,163

*These grants were created late in 2014 and thus will be covered in the 2015 Progress Report.

LOOKING FORWARD

The Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program has evolved substantially over the last year, with identifiable results.

In 2014, the number of CAEWDP activities increased from to 32 (from 22 in 2013), and the reach of sectors and issues broadened. Importantly, new activities are building on previous CAEWDP initiatives and findings, thus moving the activities up the “value-added ladder.” For example, early diag-nostics on energy shortages in Tajikistan supported a more robust engagement in policy dialogue (includ-ing leading the Donor Coordination Committee for energy) and technical assistance for policy reform, followed by identification of an investment proj-ect to specifically address winter energy access. Considerable analysis in the area of climate impacts supported the mobilization of a five-country forum and technical working group that are now preparing a region-wide investment project to increase climate resilience.

In 2015, Program management will strengthen this trend, completing some 13 analytical and technical assistance activities. The investment proj-ects—both implementation and preparation -- will demand a strong focus, given their complexity and need to simultaneously address national and regional priorities.

The evolution of the Program o!ers additional opportunities to leverage the World Bank’s active portfolio in each country and in the region, currently


estimated at US$5.99 billion. It also opens new opportunities to link the capacity and technical assistance initiatives of development partners such as GIZ and USAID with investment lending instru-ments for additional benefit to the countries.

An interim review of the Program, to be initi-ated in 2015, will provide important insights on early program results and possible course corrections over

the next 18 months. Supported by new communica-tions products, the review will help extend the dia-logue with Central Asian governments, development partners, and stakeholders on the next steps for the Program in its goal to strengthen energy and water security for the people of Central Asia.

The Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program (CAEWDP) is a knowledge and technical assistance multi-donor trust fund (MDTF) administered by the World Bank. CAEWDP’s mission is to build energy and water security for the countries of Central Asia—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—through enhanced regional cooperation. Since its inception in 2010, CAEWDP has received support from bilateral and multilateral donors including the Government of Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Economic A!airs (SECO), the European Commission (EC), the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID), the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), and the World Bank Group.

WWW.WORLDBANK.ORG/ECA/CAEWDP



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