Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy Alan Berube ... · 10/30/2003 · Pittsburgh St. Louis....

BROOKINGS INSTITUTION CENTER ON URBAN AND METROPOLITAN POLICY

Census 2000: Key Trends & Implications for Cities

Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy Alan Berube, Senior Research Analyst

The Brookings Institution

Presentation to the Knight Center for Specialized Journalism “Cities, Suburbs, and Beyond” October 30, 2003


About Census 2000

Overview

4 Major Trends in the 1990s (and beyond) II.

I.

How Cities Stack Up III.

What to Look For IV.


I. About Census 2000

Conducted in April 2000

One in six U.S. households answers additional ?s

Every household in the U.S. answered a few basic ?s

Place of birth; place of work; occupation; education; income; rent/mortgage

# people; age; race/ethnicity; sex; relationship; housing tenure

About Census 2000 ?

Census provides counts for numerous types of areas States, metro areas, cities & towns, neighborhoods, zip codes, Cong. Districts


Population Revitalization & Decentralization 1.

Growth of the “New Sunbelt”

Immigration

Widening Inequality (Among People & Places)

Urban Center

2.

3.

4.

II. Four Major Trends in the 1990s (and beyond)


1. Revitalization and Decentralization


Large cities grew faster in the 1990s than they did in the 1980s and 1970s

6.3%

9.8%

-1.6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1970s 1980s 1990s

I. Revitalization & Decentralization

50 largest cities, population 1970-2000

Source: Brookings calculations of U.S. Census Bureau data


Several large cities gained population during the 1990s after losing population in the 1980s

-7.4%-5.1% -5.5%

5.7% 6.5%

-7.3%

4.0%

18.6%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Atlanta Chicago Denver Memphis

1980s 1990sSelected cities, population 1990-2000




Still, population is decentralizing in nearly every U.S. metropolitan area

4%

19%

7%9%

44%

16%18%

6%

22%

37%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Atlanta Chicago Denver Memphis Top 100

City SuburbsSelected cities and suburbs, population 1990-2000




Even in growing cities, most population increase is occurring far from the core

San Antonio, population: 1990-2000


Source: Berube and Forman, “Living on the Edge,” October 2002


2. Growth of the New Sunbelt


Most population growth in the 1990s occurred in Southeastern and Western states—the “New Sunbelt”

States with above-average population growth: 1990-2000

II. Growth of the New Sunbelt

Source: Bill Frey calculations of U.S. Census Bureau data


New Sunbelt growth is largely attributable to domestic migration, often from the “Old Sunbelt”

1.9% 1.6%

-7.2%

12.2%10.0%10.4%

7.4% 8.1%8.6%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

California Colorado Georgia

Immigration Migration Natural Increase

Selected states, components of growth, 1990-2000


Source: Bill Frey calculations of U.S. Census Bureau data


New Sunbelt cities are larger geographically, and often incorporate a more “suburban-like” population

Household types, selected cities, 2000


Married with kids

Married withoutkids

Single parent

Other family

Singles andnonfamilies

Phoenix Philadelphia



3. Immigration


Immigration to the U.S. increased in the 1990s & the foreign-born share of population approaches that in the early 1900s

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%Population Percentage of Population

Number of foreign-born and share of population, United States, 1900-2000

III. Immigration

Source: Lindsay and Singer, “Changing Faces: Immigrants and Diversity in the Twenty-First Century,” June 2003


If not for immigration, several of the nation’s largest cities would not have grown during the 1990s

9.4%

4.0%2.6%

-1.4%-3.9%

4.6%

18.1%

1.7%

-1.7%

-3.9%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Dallas New York Minneapolis-St. Paul

Chicago Boston

Overall Without immigration

Selected cities, population with and without foreign-born, 1990-2000

III. Immigration



Destinations for the foreign-born are shifting – “Former Gateways” have declining immigrant shares…

III. Immigration


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Years

Perc

ent

BuffaloClevelandDetroitMilwaukeePittsburghSt. Louis


“Continuous Gateways” remain significant ports of entry for the foreign-born….

III. Immigration


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Perc

ent

Boston Chicago New YorkSan Francisco


The foreign-born are growing rapidly in “Emerging Gateways” that have little history as immigrant destinations…

III. Immigration


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Perc

ent

DallasWashington DCAtlantaFt. Worth


And also in “Re-Emerging Gateways” where the foreign-born presence was very low just 30 years ago

III. Immigration


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Perc

ent

San Jose Portland

Seattle Phoenix Denver Tampa


In Emerging Gateways, the locus of immigration is the suburbs, not the central city

III. Immigration

Washington region, share foreign-born by census tract, 2000

Source: Singer, “At Home in the Nation’s Capital,” June 2003

D IST R IC T O FC O L U M B IA

A R L IN G T O N

A L E X A N D R IA

U Q U IE R

C H A R L E S

O U D O U N

F A IR F A X

M O N T G O M E R Y

P R IN C E G E O R G

C AP R IN C E W IL L IA M

O N

I 66

I 95

I 270

I 495

Route 50

I 95

Percent Foreign Born (by Census Tract)

Less than 5%

5% - 15%

16% - 25%

26%- 35%

Greater than 35%


Changing the picture of immigrant business districts from this (Washington Heights)…

III. Immigration

Source: Singer Studios


…to this (Buford Highway outside Atlanta)

III. Immigration

Source: Singer Studios


4. Widening Inequality


Midwestern and Southern cities had broad income gains in the 1990s; Northeastern and CA cities lagged

Detroit +17%

Chicago +9%

San Antonio +14%

Cleveland +8%

Atlanta +16%

Baltimore -7%

New York -4%

Boston +1%

Los Angeles -12%

Twin Cities +9%

San Diego +4%

Sacramento +1%

Nashville +9%

Income and Poverty

% change in median household income: 1990-2000 Source: Brookings calculations of U.S. Census Bureau data


Many cities—like Philadelphia—have an unbalanced distribution of incomes

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

200,000

Low-Income Moderate-Income

Middle-Income

Upper-Middle-Income

Upper-Income

Hou

seho

lds

1990 2000

Philadelphia households by income quintile, 1990-2000

IV. Widening Inequality



Even in cities where incomes rose generally, the size of the middle class often shrank

-8,000

-7,000

-6,000

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0Cleveland Detroit Milwaukee St. Paul San Francisco

Change in middle-income households ($34k to $52k): 1990-2000




Income growth tracks educational attainment - and some places are “pulling away” from the pack

28.726.6

19.1

12.4

35.2 34.6

22.4

16.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Minneapolis-St. Paul

Atlanta Kansas City Miami

1990 2000

% adults w/ bachelor’s degree, selected cities, 1990-2000




Urban Center

“Coastal” Giants Talent Magnets

Regional Hubs Challenged Cores

III. How Cities Stack Up


Urban Center “Coastal” Giants

Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, San Diego, San Francisco, Washington

Examples

• Stable/Increasing Population • Strong Immigration • Employment Centers • High Inequality - Income and Educational Attainment • Very High Housing Costs

Dominant Census Characteristics

• Retain and Build Middle Class - Schools, Safety • Promote Postsecondary Education, Entrepreneurship • Preserve Affordable Housing

Key Challenges


Urban Center Talent Magnets

Atlanta, Austin, Denver, Minneapolis-St. Paul, Portland, Raleigh-Durham, San Jose, Seattle

Examples

• Increasing Population, but Significant Decentralization • High Domestic Migration and Immigration • “Two Economy” Workforce • Rapidly Escalating Housing Costs


• Balanced Metropolitan Growth • Pathways to Colleges & Universities for Workers • Metro-wide Affordable Housing Strategies • Connect Residents to Income Supports (Tax Credits, Health Insurance)

Key Challenges


Urban Center Regional Hubs

Columbus, Dallas, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Louisville, Oklahoma City, Nashville, San Antonio

Examples

• Moderate to High Growth • Significant Decentralization Metro-Wide and Within City • Lower, but Growing Immigration • Strong Middle Class • High Levels of Work • More Affordable Housing


• Balanced Metropolitan Growth • Revitalization Beyond Downtown • Regional Employment/Skills Strategies for Low-Wage Workers • Move Families Toward Asset-Building, Homeownership

Key Challenges


Urban Center Challenged Cores

Baltimore, Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Hartford, Miami, Newark, New Orleans

Examples

• Significant Population Loss • Highly Segregated Metros • Little to No Immigration • Employment Suburbanized • Very Low Education Levels; Mostly Low-Wage Workforce • Moderately-Priced Housing Out of Reach for Residents


• Fix Basics – Safety, Vacant Land, Adult/Child Literacy • Build on Assets – Location, Sectoral Strengths • Create Quality Neighborhoods – Market Housing Affordability • Balanced Metropolitan Growth

Key Challenges


IV. Metropolitan Definitions Have Changed!

“Metropolitan area revised from eight to 13 counties” The Tennessean (Nashville), June 13, 2003

What to Look For ?

“Changes muddy metro area numbers; Fort Wayne MSA grew or shrank, depending on new definitions”

Fort Wayne News Sentinel, June 10, 2003

“Roanoke, New River Valleys still separate” The Roanoke Times, June 23, 2003

“Feds give Long Island an identity crisis” Newsday (New York), June 12, 2003


Some areas have been combined

What to Look For ?

Ellis

HuntWise Collin

Dallas

Cooke

Parker

Denton

TarrantPalo Pinto

Kaufman

Johnson

Henderson

Hood

Delta

Somervell

RockwallDALLAS-FORT WORTH-ARLINGTON METRO SA

2003 CSAMetroMicro

2003 Metro SA2000 PMSA - Forth Worth2000 PMSA - Dallas

N

EW

S

Changes to the Dallas-Ft. Worth metro area, 2000—2003


Some areas have grown…and changed names

What to Look For ?

Changes to the Atlanta metro area, 2000—2003

Hall

Fulton

Troup

Carroll

Polk

Bartow

Cobb

Coweta

Chambers

JasperHenry

Upson

Pike

Gwinnett

Heard

Walton

Meriwether

Cherokee

Butts

Newton

Paulding

De Kalb

Forsyth

Haralson

Pickens

Lamar

Fayette

Dawson

Douglas

Barrow

Spalding

Clayton

Rockdale

GAINESVILLE METRO SA

ATLANTA-SANDY SPRINGS-MARIETTA METRO SA

2003 CSAMetroMicro

2003 Metro SA2000 MSA

N

EW

S

,


Population shifts in response to definitional shifts

What to Look For ?

Increases

New York, NY PMSA 9.3 million New York-Newark-Edison, NY-NJ-PA Metro 18.3 million

Miami, FL PMSA 2.2 million Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL Metro 5.0 million Decreases

Boston, MA-NH PMSA 6.1 million Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metro 4.4 million

Cleveland-Lorain-Elyria, OH PMSA 2.3 million Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH Metro 2.1 million


Where to Look for Census 2000 Info: The Brookings Urban Center!

Urban Center

1. Living Cities Databooks (this fall) - compilation of tables, maps, charts depicting key comparative Census trends for 23 of the nation’s largest cities 2. Our website (this fall) - interactive, downloadable Census data for nation’s 100 largest cities 3. The Living Cities Census Series (ongoing) - analyses by leading demographers of key demographic/economic trends across nation’s largest metro areas


Upcoming Releases

Urban Center

The Trajectory of Poor Neighborhoods in Southern CA Paul Ong, UCLA Integrated Neighborhoods in the 1990s David Fasenfest and Kurt Metzger, Wayne State Low-Income Housing Tax Credit Neighborhoods Lance Freeman, Columbia University Reversal of Fortune: Black Migration to the South in the 1990s Bill Frey, Brookings Who Lives Downtown Today? Genie Birch, University of PA Concentrated Homelessness in Metropolitan Areas Barry Lee, Penn State


www.brookings.edu/urban

Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy Alan Berube ... · 10/30/2003 · Pittsburgh St. Louis....

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