Center of Ocean-Land-Atmosphere studies

Projected Regional ChangesProjected Regional Changes

Jagadish ShuklaJagadish Shukla

Lecture18: Oct 30, 2008

CLIM 101: Weather, Climate and Global Society

Main threat to a sustainable Earth• Arctic summer sea ice likely to disappear in

second half of century• Dynamic instability of Greenland ice sheets • Very likely increase in heat waves • Likely increase in intensity of tropical storms• Etc…

SST

Main threat to a sustainable Earth

• Damages from business-as-usual scenario would be at least 5% and up to 20% of Global GDP a year

• Costs of removing most of the climate risk are around 1% of GDP per year

• This is equivalent to paying on average 1% more for what we buy

• “We can grow and be green”Sir Nicholas Stern

Main threat to a sustainable Earth

• According to IPCC AR4/WGIII, the cost of avoiding the worst would be only a fraction of what Stern Report projected

Trajectories towards

stabilization levels

(ppm CO2-eq)

MedianGDP reduction

(%)

Range of GDP reduction

(%)

Reduction of average annual GDP growth

rates (percentage points)

590-710 0.2 -0.6 – 1.2 < 0.06

535-590 0.6 0.2 – 2.5 <0.1

445-535 Not available < 3 < 0.12

Sustainability issues – LDCs• China, India and Brazil: now among the

main drivers of the world’s economy

Nepstad et al., Conservation Biology (2006)

China’s GDP has grown on average 9.6% per year in the last quarter century

China replaced EU as the main importer of Brazilian soybeans

Sustainability issues – LDCs

• Cultivated land area went from 1,307,400 km² in 1991 to 1,282,400 km² in 2000

• Construction accounted for 56.6% of reduction

• 60% of China’s 669 cities face water scarcity

Economic losses due to pollution in China amounted to US$ 12.8 billion annually – 1.4% of GDP (1990-1998)

Source: Gaoming Jiang & Jixi Gao, 2007

Sustainability issues - LDCs• 2006: 2.6% increase in global CO2 from fossil fuel• Mainly due to 4.5% increase in coal consumption• China contributed more than two-thirds• China’s CO2 emissions surpassed those of the USA by 8%

LDCs are now part of the problem and part of the solution

Total emissions

Sustainability issues - LDCs

But LDCs: small contribution to climate change, at least in per capita terms

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

CO

2 e

mis

sio

ns

pe

r c

ap

ita

(m

etr

ic t

on

s o

f c

arb

on

)

Brazil

China

France

Germany

I ndia

I ndonesia

J apan

Russian Federation

United Kingdom

United States

Per capita emissions

US

China

Remember 1992 UNFCCC: “Common but differentiated responsibilities”

Equality: impacts will hit the poor hardest and earliest

Impacts hit the poor hardest• 30 to 200 million people at risk of hunger with temperature rises of 2 to 3°C

• 0.7 to 4.4 billion people will experience growing water shortages with a rise of 2°C

Yields across Africa and Western Asia may fall by 15% to 35%

Impacts hit the poor hardest Climate impacts will decrease water

availability and drought in semi-arid latitudes“It’s exactly what we don’t want; it makes the world

much less even, more inequitable”Martin Parry, co-chair IPCC WGII

Challenges to be addressed

• Purification of air and water• Mitigation of droughts and floods• Preservation of soils• Pollination of crops and vegetation• Dispersal of seeds

• Cycling and movement of nutrients• Control of potential agricultural pests• Maintenance of biodiversity• Protection of coastal shores erosion• Stabilization of climate etc.

ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

Sustainability issues – LDCs• Under threat: Cerrado, Brazilian savanna

• One of Brazil’s two biodiversity hotspots

• At the current rate of loss, gone by 2030

CI/Nature

Impacts hit the poor hardest

• Adaptation will cost LDCs $10 bns anually• Even more for the necessary infrastructure

Main threat to a sustainable Earth

Source: Gordon et al., 2004

Impacts hit the poor hardest

• Nearly 200 million people live in coastal flood zones at risk

• South Asia alone: more than 60 million people

Future climate change will affect water availability, increasing water stress in already stressed regions...

ImpactsImpacts

Extreme rainfall variability: the case Extreme rainfall variability: the case of Kenyaof Kenya

Kenya: extreme rainfall variability around mean

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

Kenya’sKenya’s 97-98 flood & 1998-2000 drought97-98 flood & 1998-2000 drought

Hirji et al, World Bank (2003)

10/97-02/98 flood infrastructure damage $ 2.39 b

10/98-05/00 drought crop loss $ 0.24 b

livestock loss $ 0.14 b

reduc. HP production $ 0.64 b

reduc. industr. production $ 1.39 b

total $ 2.41 b

10/97-05/00 cost of climate variability $ 4.8 b

approx (annual) GDP ($9b/yr) $ 22 b

impact as % GDP/annum 22%

Mozambique’sMozambique’s 2000 floods2000 floods

Real GDP - 23%

 

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

Years

Real

GDP

gro

wth

(%)

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Varia

bilit

y in

Rai

nfal

l (M

eter

)

Real GDP grow th (%)

Variability in Rainfall (Meter)

Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe

RRainfall affects growth…. ainfall affects growth…. the case of Zimbabwethe case of Zimbabwe

Temperature and Temperature and PPrecipitation recipitation CChanges over Africa hanges over Africa ((A1B A1B ))

Anomaly of Mean Monthly Precipitation Downscaled from Anomaly of Mean Monthly Precipitation Downscaled from GCMsGCMs

Temperature and Temperature and PPrecipitation recipitation CChanges over hanges over Europe(Europe(A1B A1B ))

Temperature and Temperature and PPrecipitation recipitation CChanges over Ahanges over Asisia a ((A1B A1B ))

Temperature and Temperature and PPrecipitation recipitation CChanges over hanges over North North AAmericamerica ((A1B A1B ))

Percent Snow Depth Changes in MarchPercent Snow Depth Changes in March

Temperature and Temperature and PPrecipitation recipitation CChanges over hanges over South AmericaSouth America ((A1B A1B ))

PROJECTED SCENARIOS OF DEFORESTATION ...PROJECTED SCENARIOS OF DEFORESTATION ...Control 20% 40% 50%

60% 80% 100%

or Soybean

Source: Soares-Filho et al., 2006 and Amazon Scenarios Project, LBA Sampaio et al., 2007

Vegetation classification

Dorman and Sellers (1989)

Temperature and Temperature and PPrecipitation recipitation CChanges over Ahanges over Australiaustralia ((A1B A1B ))

Annual Surface Annual Surface Temperature Temperature CChanges hanges ((A1B A1B ))

2080 to 2099 minus 1980 to 1999

Global dust deposition Global dust deposition

Jickells et al. (2005)

GEC goes beyond climate change

• 2003

• Heat wave hits

Europe

• 30,000 people die

in Western EuropeobservationsHadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2)

2003

2040s

2060sT

emp

erat

ure

an

om

aly

(wrt

196

1-90

) °

C

GEC is more acute than everGEC is more acute than ever

Main threat to a sustainable Main threat to a sustainable worldworld

• Arctic summer sea ice likely to disappear in second half of century

• Very likely increase in heatwaves • Likely increase in intensity of tropical storms

SST

Case study: Summer heat wave Case study: Summer heat wave 20032003

Schär et al. 2004

Rebetez et al. 2006 August 2003

Precipitation Max. temperature

• Heat stress• Drought stress• Wildfires

THANK YOU!

ANY QUESTIONS?

Center of Ocean-Land-Atmosphere studies