Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach ...

USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies

(CUWS) Outreach Journal

Issue No.1184, 25 September 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama

http://cpc.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 | Fax: 334.953.7226

CUWS Outreach Journal 1184

25 September 2015

Feature Item: “Indian Nuclear Forces, 2015.” Authored by Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris; published by Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Volume 71, Issue 5; September/October 2015; 7 pages.

http://bos.sagepub.com/content/71/5/77.full

http://bos.sagepub.com/content/71/5/77.full.pdf+html

With several long-range ballistic missiles in development, the Indian nuclear posture is entering an important new phase. After nearly two decades of focusing on nuclear competition with Pakistan, New Delhi seems to now be paying attention to its future strategic relationship with China. India is estimated to have produced approximately 540 kilograms of weapon-grade plutonium, enough for 135 to 180 nuclear warheads, though not all of that material is being used. The authors estimate that India has produced between 110 and 120 nuclear warheads. The country’s fighter-bombers still constitute the backbone of its operational nuclear strike force, but it has made considerable progress in developing credible land-based ballistic missiles as well. They include the Agni-4, which will be capable of delivering a single nuclear warhead more than 3,500 kilometers, and therefore able to strike Beijing and Shanghai from northern India. In 2014, India conducted its first ever sea trial of a nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine.

U.S. Nuclear Weapons

1. USAF Begins Removing Nuclear Role from Some B-52 Bombers 2. US to Bring in New Advanced Nuclear Bombs to Germany – Report 3. US Says Not to Place New Nuclear Bombs in Germany this Year

U.S. Counter-WMD

1. US Completes Missile Defense System Deployment at Naval Station in Spain

U.S. Arms Control

1. Russia Could Scrap INF Treaty If US Deploys New Nuclear Bombs to Germany 2. Kremlin Threatens Response to U.S. Nuclear Bomb Deployment in Germany 3. US Ready to Respond to Alleged Russia INF Violations

Homeland Security/The Americas

1. Y-12 Uranium Shipment Reportedly Violated DOT rules 2. Pentagon Says Chinese Sub that Can Hit U.S. to Go on Patrol Soon

Asia/Pacific

1. U.S., China Won't Accept N. Korea as Nuclear Power 2. S. Korea Undecided yet on Effectiveness of THAAD Deployment 3. NK Looks to Have Replaced Key Party Officials Handling Munitions Industry 4. Xi: Military Adventure "Never Crosses Our Mind" 5. Seoul to Create Special Unit to Attack N.K. Nuke, Missile Assets 6. NK Missile Launch Sites Shrouded 7. CZ-6 Rocket Can Launch 20 Missiles at once, Including DF-5B ICBM

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http://bos.sagepub.com/content/71/5/77.full

http://bos.sagepub.com/content/71/5/77.full.pdf+html

USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama



Europe/Russia

1. Putin Says Financial Stability Should Be Secured for Russian Defence Sector 2. Strategic Weapons: Russia Struggles 3. Labour's Shadow Foreign Secretary Hilary Benn on Scrapping Trident and Leaving Nato: 'I Don't Think That

Is Going to Happen' 4. How Close We Came to Armageddon: Russian Bombers Began to Arm NUKE near UK Airspace 5. Last Chemical Munition Destroyed at Shchuchye Facility 6. Ukraine Wants Help to Build Nuclear Defence Shield - Arseniy Yatsenyuk 7. Jeremy Corbyn Gets Chance to Argue for Scrapping Trident at Labour Conference

Middle East

1. Leader's Top Aide Describes Termination of Sanctions as Necessity for Deal 2. Iran Says IAEA Chief Amano Visits Parchin Military Site 3. Samples Taken at Iran Military Site; No IAEA Inspectors Present: Official 4. IRGC Commander: Iran’s Deterrence Removed War from US Agenda

5. Spokesman: IAEA to Declare Result of Parchin Samplings in 2 Months 6. Iran Says to Meet No Limitations Regarding Missiles 7. Zarif Names Araqchi to Implement Nuclear Deal 8. Iran: Relations with US on Hold, Waiting for Nuke Deal Implementation 9. Defense Ministry Stresses Failure of US, Allies' Scenarios against Iran 10. Amano Confirms Iran's Cooperation within IAEA's Verification Scheme

Commentary

1. How Many Nukes Does North Korea Have? 2. Second Strike N-Capability Key to Stable Deterrence 3. Is Turkey Secretly Working on Nuclear Weapons? 4. Has Russia Violated the INF Treaty?

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IHS Jane’s 360 – London, U.K.

USAF Begins Removing Nuclear Role from Some B-52 Bombers By Gareth Jennings, London - IHS Jane's Defence Weekly

20 September 2015

The US Air Force (USAF) has begun converting nearly half of its Boeing B-52H Stratofortress strategic bombers to the conventional role only, in line with the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) signed with Russia in April 2010, the service announced on 17 September.

Conversion of the first (serial number 61-1021) of 30 operational aircraft into non-nuclear-capable platforms was completed at Barksdale Air Force Base (AFB) in Louisiana over the previous weeks.

The USAF's B-52 fleet currently comprises 76 operational platforms, which are controlled by the Air Force Global Strike command (AFGSC) headquartered at Barksdale AFB. A further 12 non-operational B-52H bombers are stored at the 'boneyard' at Davis-Monthan AFB in Arizona, and these will also be converted (94 B-52G platforms in the boneyard are slated for disposal).

Work to convert the 30 operational and 12 mothballed bombers is scheduled to be complete by early 2017.







Under the New START treaty, which came into effect on 5 February 2011, the United States and Russia are required to have no more than 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads; 800 deployed and non-deployed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launchers, submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) launchers, and nuclear capable heavy bombers; as well as 700 deployed ICBMs, SLBMs, and nuclear-capable heavy bombers. The US Department of Defense announced its force structure in April 2014 to comply with these New START requirements.

Both countries must meet the treaty's central limits on strategic arms by 5 February, 2018.

http://www.janes.com/article/54673/usaf-begins-removing-nuclear-role-from-some-b-52-bombers

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RT (Russia Today) – Moscow, Russia

US to Bring in New Advanced Nuclear Bombs to Germany – Report 22 September 2015

Starting third quarter 2015, the US Air Force is starting preparations to bring in new B61 nuclear bombs to Luftwaffe’s Büchel Air Base, according to ZDF TV channel. German parliament previously called for American nukes to be removed.

The base in Rhineland-Palatinate in western Germany hosts German Panavia Tornado multipurpose aircraft that are capable to deploy the USAF nuclear bombs stored there under a nuclear sharing deal. The base is the only location in Germany that has nuclear weapons since 2007 and has 20 of them, according to the Royal United Services Institute.

The US is currently working on a new variant of the B61, Mod 12, which would be more accurate and have smaller yield than modifications 3 and 4 currently deployed in Europe.

ZDF cites budget documents indicating that in third quarter this year the base would receive funding for the future storage and deployment of the new B61-12s. That includes the upgrade of the Tornado aircraft.

The report notes that nuclear disarmament was part of the 2009 coalition parliament between Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU party and Free Democrats. In 2010, the German parliament called on the government to have the American nuclear weapons removed from its soil, citing public support for such a decision.

Berlin also intended to retire its fleet of Tornados by 2015, with no plans to have a replacement capable of deploying the American nuclear bombs. The F-35 is capable of dropping B61, but Germany doesn’t intend to buy the expensive aircraft and chose Eurofighter Typhoon to be Tornado’s successor.

In 2012, Berliner Zeitung reported that Berlin had quietly decided to keep at least some of the Tornados operational until as far as 2024.

The B61-12 would be more precise and less destructive than its predecessor, which proponents say would be a major benefit. Critics say the weapon would be on the borderline between strategic and tactical and decision makers would be more tempted to use them, which could have unforeseen and grave consequence for the global security.

Former parliamentary state secretary in Germany’s Defense Ministry, Willy Wimmer, told ZDF that the move to upgrade Büchel Air Base nuclear arsenal gave NATO “new attack options against Russia” a constituted “a conscious provocation of our Russian neighbors.”



http://www.janes.com/article/54673/usaf-begins-removing-nuclear-role-from-some-b-52-bombers




Moscow keeps the presence of American nukes in Europe in mind when shaping its own military policies as reflected in Russia’s newest military doctrine published last year, spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova told German television.

“The comprehensive analysis of the situation points to the threat posed by the increasing military capability of NATO and its endowment with global functions, which it performs in violation of the international law, as well as the encroachment of the military infrastructure of NATO members on the borders of the Russian Federation,” she commented.

Moscow has been critical of the entire nuclear sharing program between the US and European countries, saying it breached the spirit of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which forbids the transfer of nuclear weapons to non-nuclear states. Washington insists the NPT does not forbid it to keep nuclear weapons in Europe as long as they remain under control of the US troops.

Russia’s concern about the nukes partially comes from the fact that the US trains troops of European nations, including those not hosting American nuclear weapons at all, to deploy them, which, Moscow says, harms the regional stability and threatens Russia’s national security.

“The so-called practice of ‘joint use of nuclear weapons’ within NATO also gives as concerns,” Zakharova said. “Training (exercises) associated with the preparation and use of nuclear weapons of the armed forces of states that do not possess such weapons, are a direct violation of Articles 1 and 2 of the NPT. This abnormal situation has persisted for more than forty years, but that does not make it more acceptable.”

The German defense ministry would not immediately comment on the ZDF report.

https://www.rt.com/news/316186-germany-us-nukes-upgrade/

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TASS Russian News Agency – Moscow, Russia

US Says Not to Place New Nuclear Bombs in Germany this Year Germany’s ZDF television reported on its website previously that the preparation for the deployment of new American nuclear bombs was beginning at Bundeswehr’s Buchel airbase

September 24, 2015

WASHINGTON, September 24. /TASS/. The United States is not going to place its new nuclear bombs - B61-12 in Germany this year, Shelley Laver, deputy director of the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) public affairs told TASS on Wednesday, commenting on the corresponding German media reports.

She confirmed that in accordance with Washington’s previously announced plans, "The B61-12 won't reach full production until FY20." According to her, "The articles implying deployment to Europe by the end of the calendar year would be inaccurate."

Germany’s ZDF television reported on its website previously that the preparation for the deployment of new American nuclear bombs was beginning at Bundeswehr’s Buchel airbase (Rheinland-Pfalz federal land). Journalists obtained this information based on analysis of the US government's budget documents for the current year. They allegedly say that starting from the third quarter of 2015 the allocation of funds will begin to the US Air Force for equipping Germany’s Tornado jet fighter bombers with new nuclear weapons’ system.

Meanwhile, Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, said that the German media meant that "the Tornados were now in the first phase of a two year integration program." It's "more like a status update, that the Tornados (are) now in the integration program."



https://www.rt.com/news/316186-germany-us-nukes-upgrade/





"All of these things have been in the books for years. The [US] Air Force has reported about the timelines for when these upgrades of the aircraft were going to be made and NNSA and many other agencies, of course, reported about the plans for the bomb itself," Kristensen said.

Referring to the American tactical nuclear weapons deployed in Europe, he said that "Now the estimate is closer to a hundred and eighty," despite his previous estimates of 2011 when it was believed that the United States had 150-200 tactical nuclear weapons in Europe.

http://tass.ru/en/world/823451

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Sputnik International – Russian Information Agency

US Completes Missile Defense System Deployment at Naval Station in Spain The United States completes on Friday the deployment of a missile defense system in the Spanish province of Cadiz as part of its NATO ballistic missile campaign in Europe, Spanish media reported, citing the Ministry of Defense.

25 September 2015

MOSCOW (Sputnik) — The last ship in the campaign, the US guided-missile destroyer USS Carney, is expected to join three other Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers currently deployed at the joint US-Spain Naval Station Rota.

The three ships currently at the base are the USS Porter, USS Donald Cook and USS Ross, La Voz Digital newspaper reported.

While in Europe, the ships will contribute to maritime security operations, bilateral and multilateral training exercises, as well as other NATO operations and deployments.

The United States has launched the campaign in an effort to assure NATO allies they can quickly respond to military threats.

Spain, a NATO member since 1982, maintains two military bases with a permanent US presence – an air base in Seville and a combined air and naval base in Cadiz.

http://sputniknews.com/military/20150925/1027510129/us-missiles-in-spain.html

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http://tass.ru/en/world/823451

http://sputniknews.com/military/20150925/1027510129/us-missiles-in-spain.html





Russia Could Scrap INF Treaty If US Deploys New Nuclear Bombs to Germany Moscow could drop out of a Soviet-era nuclear treaty with Washington if the United States moves new B61-12 guided nuclear bombs to Germany, the chairman of Russia's upper chamber defense and security committee said Wednesday.

23 September 2015

MOSCOW (Sputnik) — German media reported on Tuesday that the United States would station 20 next-generation nuclear weapons at the Buechel military air base in western Germany, information obtained from a line item included in the 2015 US budget.

"Should they follow through on this decision, this could prompt Russia to exit the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty," Viktor Ozerov told RIA Novosti.

The United States and Russia signed the INF Treaty in 1987 to eliminate the threat of nuclear missiles capable of striking targets on the European continent.

Following German media reports, US Department of Defense spokesman Army Lt. Col. Joe Sowers told Sputnik that Washington believed that its nuclear weapon deployments were fully compliant with US treaty obligations.

The Russian Foreign Ministry expressed concern about upgraded US nuclear deployment plans, saying this would also infringe on the 1970 nuclear non-proliferation treaty, ratified by more than 190 states.

http://sputniknews.com/russia/20150923/1027407398.html

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The Moscow Times – Moscow, Russia

Kremlin Threatens Response to U.S. Nuclear Bomb Deployment in Germany By Matthew Bodner

September 23, 2015

The Kremlin on Wednesday lashed out at U.S. plans to modernize 20 nuclear weapons stationed at a German airbase, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov characterizing the move as a potential "violation of the strategic balance in Europe," that would demand a Russian response.

The reaction comes after German television station ZDF on Tuesday cited a Pentagon budget document saying that the U.S. Air Force would deploy modernized B61 nuclear bombs to Germany's Buchel air force base this autumn — replacing the 20 weapons already at the site — as part of a broader nuclear modernization initiative launched by the U.S. in 2010.

"This could alter the balance of power in Europe," Peskov told reporters at a press conference on Wednesday. "And without a doubt it would demand that Russia take necessary countermeasures to restore the strategic balance and parity."

The U.S. nuclear weapons in question are the newest upgrade to the B61 air-dropped nuclear bomb — one of the oldest atomic weapons in the U.S. arsenal — known as the B61-12. They are deployed to bases in several NATO countries, such as Germany and Turkey.



http://sputniknews.com/russia/20150923/1027407398.html





The B61 is a variable yield nuclear device, blurring the lines between so-called tactical and strategic nuclear weapons. In other words, the power of the weapon can be adjusted for use as a small-scale battlefield nuke, or set to detonate at over 300 megatons — true city-busting power.

Unclear Response

Peskov did not specify what sort of reaction or countermeasures Russia might employ if the U.S. proceeds to deploy the weapons as planned, but an unidentified "military-diplomatic" source told the Interfax news agency on Wednesday that Iskander-M tactical missiles could be redeployed to Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave in Eastern Europe that borders Poland and Lithuania.

"The issue is being studied," the source said. "The final decision will be make after a detailed analysis of the potential threats" arising from German Tornado fighter-bomber aircraft armed with modernized U.S.-made nuclear bombs.

Moscow has threatened to deploy Iskander-M missiles to Kaliningrad several times over the past year, as relations between Russia and the U.S. collapsed over the crisis in Ukraine.

Tensions over Ukraine have seen heightened nuclear rhetoric emanating from Moscow. The Iskander missile system is a short-range tactical missile capable of being armed with nuclear weapons.

Neither the Iskander nor the U.S. B61 bombs are governed by any arms control treaties, with the exception of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which stipulates that nuclear weapons cannot be shared with non-nuclear nations.

Non-Proliferation Dispute

ZDF's report quoted Maria Zakharova, a Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson. In the interview given to the station, Zakharova took shots at the U.S. for not dialing back its deployments of tactical nuclear weapons following the end of the Cold War, claiming that "in the 1990s, Russia reduced its non-strategic nuclear weapons arsenal by 75 percent."

The U.S. continues to have tactical nuclear weapons deployed in NATO countries such as Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy and Turkey, Zakharova said, adding that NATO's policy of sharing nuclear weapons with non-nuclear members violates the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Responding to Zakharova's remarks on Wednesday, U.S. Embassy spokesman Will Stevens told The Moscow Times that the deployment of U.S. nuclear weapons in NATO territory "is consistent with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. These weapons remain under U.S. control at all times and are not transferred."

Stevens said that the issue of nuclear weapons deployments among NATO members without nukes of their own "was fully addressed when the treaty was negotiated. In fact, the basing arrangements were made clear to all delegations and were made public. Russia did not object."

Since Sept. 30, 1991, the U.S. has slashed its strategic nuclear weapons stockpile by over 90 percent, Stevens said, adding: "The remaining Russian weapons greatly exceed those retained by the United States."

Modernization Dispute

The U.S. is currently modernizing the B61 arsenal, with $1.2 billion allocated in the 2015 U.S. defense budget for the project. The modernization of these existing weapons is part of a broader U.S. nuclear modernization policy first outlined in the 2010 U.S. Nuclear Posture Review.

"Such plans on the part of the United States raise concern for us," Zakharova was quoted as saying in a full transcript of her interview with ZDF, published on the Foreign Ministry's website on Tuesday.






Russia too is pursuing a full-fledged overhaul of its nuclear forces under the leadership of President Vladimir Putin. In 2011, the government launched a sprawling 20 trillion ruble ($300 billion at current exchange rates) program to rearm Russia's military.

The program aims to replace every nuclear weapon in Russia's arsenal by 2020, and is focusing on new ICBMs designed to overwhelm current and prospective U.S. anti-ballistic missile defenses, adding to nuclear tensions between the two nuclear superpowers.

Material from Reuters was used in this report.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/kremlin-threatens-response-to-us-nuclear-bomb-deployment-in-germany/535106.html

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US Ready to Respond to Alleged Russia INF Violations The spokesperson of US Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security Rose Gottemoeller said that the United States is ready to act in response to Russia’s alleged violations of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.

24 September 2015

WASHINGTON (Sputnik) — The United States is ready to act in response to Russia’s alleged violations of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), however, it wants to avoid an escalation, the spokesperson for US Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security, Rose Gottemoeller, told Sputnik on Wednesday.

On Wednesday, Russian Federation Council’s Defense and Security Committee Chairman Viktor Ozerov told RIA Novosti that Moscow could drop out of a Soviet-era nuclear treaty with Washington if the United States moves new B61-12 guided nuclear bombs to Germany.

"While the United States wants to avoid the action-reaction cycles of the past, the United States and its allies will act to deny Russia any military advantage if it persists in its violation," spokesperson Alexandra Bell said.

She further stated that the deployment of US nuclear weapons on the territories of its NATO allies is "consistent" with the INF Treaty.

"Regarding the threat… about a withdrawal from the INF, it appears to be the latest in a series of attempt to divert the world’s attention away from their violation of the INF Treaty," Bell added.

In 2014, Washington accused Moscow of not complying with the treaty by testing an unarmed ground-launched cruise missile.

Russia has repeatedly dismissed all US claims and expressed concern over the establishment of a US-designed ballistic missile defense system in Europe. A group of European countries, including Poland, Romania, Spain and Turkey, had agreed to deploy elements of the system on their territories.

Bell noted that Washington values the INF Treaty and believes it benefits the security of the United States, its allies, partners as well as Russia.

"The United States is committed to returning Russia to compliance to ensure the continued viability of the INF Treaty," Bell concluded.

On Tuesday, German media reported that the United States would station 20 next-generation nuclear weapons at the Buechel military air base in western Germany, information obtained from a line item included in the 2015 US budget.









The Russian Foreign Ministry expressed concern about upgraded US nuclear deployment plans, saying this would also infringe on the 1970 Treaty of Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), ratified by more than 190 states.

The United States and Russia signed the INF Treaty in 1987, banning nuclear and conventional ground-based cruise and ballistic missiles with a range of 500-5,500 kilometers (300-3,400 miles).

http://www.sputniknews.com/military/20150924/1027432933.html

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Knoxville News Sentinel – Knoxville, TN

Y-12 Uranium Shipment Reportedly Violated DOT rules By Frank Munger

September 22, 2015

A federal spokesman at the Y-12 nuclear weapons plant confirmed that a July shipment did not comply with some Department of Transportation regulations for transporting hazardous materials, and he said Y-12 officials have been in contact with DOT and “are cooperating with their findings.”

Steven Wyatt of the National Nuclear Security Administration also confirmed that the “special nuclear material” shipped from Y-12 to a commercial facility was uranium, although he refused to say if it was highly enriched or weapons-grade uranium and would not specify how much uranium was sent to the unnamed facility.

The NNSA, a semi-independent part of the U.S. Department of Energy that oversees the nuclear weapons complex, confirmed last week that Y-12 inadvertently shipped more nuclear material than intended to a private facility. After the mistake was discovered, a special team from Y-12 reportedly went to the site and secured the material for return to Oak Ridge.

Federal officials last week refused to elaborate on the incident, but Wyatt late Monday, in response to questions, released some additional information about the unusual event that involved material with strict handling protocols and security measures.

But the agency was adamant about not revealing details of the material.

“We are not disclosing how much nuclear material was shipped,” Wyatt said. “While the amount was small, the weight of the material exceeded the amount that should have been shipped.”

Asked how Y-12 could ship the wrong amount of nuclear material, the spokesman said, “Upon a thorough investigation, it has been concluded that the direct cause of the event was human error. Personnel mistakenly placed more material into containers than intended.”

He did not immediately comment on whether the uranium was weighed before it was shipped off-site.

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has not identified the NRC-licensed facility that received the special nuclear material, and Wyatt declined to comment.

Wyatt said the facility was authorized to receive such materials, but added, “We are not disclosing the name or location of the commercial facility.”

He also would not say whether any personnel at Y-12, federal or contractor, were disciplined as a result of the incident. “We do not discuss personnel matters publicly,” he said.

Wyatt said the nuclear material originally was shipped commercially, using a “certified transportation service.”



http://www.sputniknews.com/military/20150924/1027432933.html




He said the material did not leave the United States. He acknowledged that the shipment did not comply with some of DOT’s Federal Motor Carrier Safety and Hazardous Material regulations.

Wyatt said the federal agency worked with Consolidated Nuclear Security, the government’s managing contractor at Y-12, to investigate the incident. He said they had completed the investigation and taken corrective actions.

A spokeswoman with the Department of Energy’s Office of Inspector General refused to confirm or deny whether the IG was investigating the incident. Wyatt said the NRC had not sent any representatives to Y-12.

The timetable of events is still unclear. The NNSA has refused to give the date of the original shipment, except to say July, or specify when the mistake was discovered or the date when the material was returned to Y-12.

“Shipments of this nature require receipt confirmation,” he said. “The receiver followed all appropriate protocols for receiving and storing nuclear materials. Upon receipt and inspection, Y-12 was immediately notified and the material was appropriately secured until returned to Y-12.”

At no time was there a risk to employees, the public or the environment, Wyatt said. He said the NNSA was unaware of any similar incidents involving other shipments of special nuclear materials.

Staff members of U.S. Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., who chairs the Senate Appropriations energy and water subcommittee, were briefed on the incident and provided this statement from the senator: “An incident like this, even if there was never a threat to public health and safety, must be taken very seriously by Y-12 and the National Nuclear Security Administration.”

Tyler Threadgill, communications director for U.S. Rep. Chuck Fleischmann, R-Tenn., whose district includes Oak Ridge and who serves on the House Appropriations energy and water subcommittee, said Friday the congressman was briefed on the event and “is pleased Y-12 officials took quick and thorough action.”

http://www.knoxnews.com/news/local-news/y12-uranium-shipment-reportedly-violated-dot-rules_22839052

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Bloomberg Business News – New York, NY

Pentagon Says Chinese Sub that Can Hit U.S. to Go on Patrol Soon First Jin-class sub to deploy by year's end, U.S. Says

JL-2 missile could hit all 50 U.S. states from east of Hawaii

By Anthony Capaccio and David Tweed

September 23, 2015

A new Chinese nuclear submarine designed to carry missiles that can hit the U.S. will likely deploy before year’s end, the Pentagon said, adding to Obama administration concerns over China’s muscle-flexing in Asia.

China’s navy is expected this year to conduct the first patrol of its Jin-class nuclear-powered submarine armed with JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missiles, the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency said in a statement. It declined to give its level of confidence on when the new boat will be deployed or the status of the missile.

“The capability to maintain continuous deterrent patrols is a big milestone for a nuclear power,” Larry Wortzel, a member of the congressionally created U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, said in an e-mail. “I think the Chinese would announce this capability as a show of strength and for prestige.”

The submarines are part of an effort to modernize China’s military under President Xi Jinping, who will be in Washington Thursday and Friday for a state visit with U.S. President Barack Obama. U.S.-China defense



http://www.knoxnews.com/news/local-news/y12-uranium-shipment-reportedly-violated-dot-rules_22839052





cooperation and competition will be among the topics discussed by the two leaders. The Pentagon and DIA had previously predicted the patrols would start last year.

‘Threat Inflation’

“Don’t discount the likelihood of threat inflation by the Pentagon because of the shift toward the Asia-Pacific in the revised maritime strategy,” said Collin Koh Swee Lean, an associate research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

China set out its ambitions for a bigger naval presence far from its coasts in its 2015 defense white paper released in May this year, saying it would add “open seas protection” to “offshore waters defense” to a list of core naval missions.

Wortzel said his commission’s 2015 report probably will include a comment from PLA Navy Commander Admiral Wu Shengli, who said the submarine-missile combination is “a trump card that makes our motherland proud and our adversaries terrified.”

China’s increased naval might, as well as its assertion to territory in the contested South China Sea and East China Sea, has helped spur the region’s largest military buildup in decades and caused disquiet in the U.S. about its role as the region’s peace keeper.

Missile Range

“The United States is a Pacific power,” U.S. National Security Adviser Susan Rice said in a speech on Sept. 21. “We’ve been the guarantor of stability in the region for the past 70 years. President Obama has made it clear that we have vital interests in Asia and the Pacific, and a good part of our foreign policy has been focused on our rebalance to Asia.”

China currently has at least four Jin-class submarines. Fifty-one years after the country carried out its first nuclear test, patrols by the new submarines will give Xi greater agility to respond to a nuclear attack, according to analysts.

“Of all the PLA strategic deterrence capabilities, the sea-based link is the most closely guarded secret because it is meant to be the most secure of the deterrents for China,” said Koh, who studies China’s naval modernization.

Sending the submarines on patrol is a significant step because JL-2 missiles have a range of about 4,598 miles (7,398 kilometers.) The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission has said the missiles could reach Alaska if launched from waters near Japan and all 50 U.S. states from waters east of Hawaii.

Troop Cuts

“The chances of getting a submarine east of Hawaii at a time when tensions are high, would be relatively low,” said Felix Chang, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia. “But it’s not a possibility you can completely discount.”

Xi earlier this month announced plans to cut 300,000 troops and vowed never to seek “hegemony or expansion.” While the move represents the largest cut to the People’s Liberation Army in almost two decades, it may only accelerate the arms buildup in the Asia-Pacific region.

The move will speed the PLA’s transition from a large, land-based army built over decades of invasions, civil war and border conflicts to a modern, mechanized force able to defend China’s territorial integrity and growing interests abroad.

“The more modern their weapons, the fewer personnel needed,” said June Teufel Dreyer, a University of Miami political science professor, who served as a commissioner on the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission. “Less money spent on personnel means more money for airplanes, submarines, frigates, missiles.”

Still Testing



http://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2014_DoD_China_Report.pdf

https://www.rsis.edu.sg/profile/collin-koh-swee-lean/#.VgNbet-qpBc

https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/09/21/national-security-advisor-susan-e-rices-prepared-remarks-us-china

http://www.fpri.org/taxonomy/term/259/0




The JL-2 “has nearly three times the range” of China’s current sea-launched ballistic missile “which was only able to range targets in the immediate vicinity of China,” the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence said in an April report on China’s Navy. The JL-2 “underwent successful testing in 2012 and is likely ready to enter the force,” it said. “Once deployed it will provide China with a capability to strike targets” in the continental U.S., it said.

Koh said reports indicate the PLA may still be conducting JL-2 tests. “If the missiles aren’t operational yet, there is no reason to send them out on patrol,” he said.

There is speculation that China is developing a new 096 Tang class nuclear-powered submarine that may be able to carry as many as 24 ballistic missiles, twice as many as the Jin-class 094 submarines, Koh said.

“So the most likely scenario is that the JL-2 is likely to be in the final stages of testing, and has been deemed successful, otherwise they wouldn’t be going ahead with the development of the 096,” said Koh.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-24/pentagon-says-chinese-sub-that-can-hit-u-s-to-go-on-patrol-soon

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The Korea Times – Seoul, South Korea

U.S., China Won't Accept N. Korea as Nuclear Power September 22, 2015

WASHINGTON, Sept. 21 (Yonhap) -- The United States and China are working together for a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula and won't accept North Korea as a nuclear weapons country, U.S. National Security Advisor Susan Rice said Monday.

Rice made the remark during a speech previewing a summit between President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping, saying the two countries are "united in demanding the complete and verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula."

"We firmly oppose North Korea's efforts to develop nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles that threaten regional stability and our respective national security interests," she said during an address at George Washington University.

Rice said China is "a fulcrum of influence" for the North, referring to Beijing's status as the main provider of economic assistance and diplomatic support for Pyongyang.

This week's summit between Obama and Xi, set for Friday, will be another opportunity to discuss how we can sharpen Pyongyang's choices between having nuclear weapons and developing economically, Rice said.

"Neither the United States nor China will accept North Korea as a nuclear weapons state," she said.

The summit comes as tensions on the Korean Peninsula flare anew after the North strongly hinted it would conduct a banned long-range rocket launch, possibly around next month's ruling party anniversary. Pyongyang also said its bomb-making nuclear facilities have returned to normal operation and could conduct a nuclear test if necessary.

North Korea has conducted three underground nuclear tests so far, in 2006, 2009 and 2013. The country has also conducted a series of long-range missile or rocket launches since 1998. In its most recent launch in late 2012, the North succeeded in putting a satellite into orbit.

Analysts have warned that it is only a matter of time until the North develops nuclear-tipped missiles. Some experts have recently warned that the communist nation's nuclear arsenal could expand to as many as 100 bombs by 2020.



http://fas.org/irp/agency/oni/pla-navy-2015.pdf







Other agenda items for this week's summit are expected to include thorny issues, such as territorial disputes over the South China Sea, cyber-hacking, China's foreign exchange policy, climate change and human rights.

"We are steadily and methodically expanding the breadth and depth of our cooperation with China. Our story is, overwhelmingly, one of progress. Still, the reality is we face difficult challenges. And, we never shy away from pressing our concerns," Rice said.

She said the U.S. has urged China to carry out market reforms that level the playing field for foreign firms and refrain from competitive currency devaluation. She also noted that Obama has made clear to Xi that "state-sponsored, cyber-enabled economic espionage must stop."

"This isn't a mild irritation. It is an economic and national security concern to the United States," she said of cyber-hacking. "It puts enormous strain on our bilateral relationship, and it is a critical factor in determining the future trajectory of U.S.-China ties."

Speaking of maritime territorial disputes, Rice also said that the U.S. takes no position on competing territorial claims, but will continue to stress the importance of preserving "freedom of navigation and commerce through some of the world's busiest sea lanes."

"The United States of America will sail, fly and operate anywhere that international law permits," she said.

http://www.koreatimesus.com/us-china-wont-accept-n-korea-as-nuclear-power/

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The Korea Observer – Seoul, South Korea

S. Korea Undecided yet on Effectiveness of THAAD Deployment September 22, 2015

By Yonhap News

GYERYONGDAE, South Korea, Sept. 22 (Yonhap) — South Korea is undecided yet whether the potential deployment of the U.S. THAAD system would be effective in defending the country from North Korea’s missile threats, the chief of the Air Force said Tuesday.

“There are many prerequisites to be met for the running of THAAD,” Air Force Chief of Staff Jeong Kyeong-doo said, referring to possible compatibility problems between the U.S. system and the local military’s defense assets.

Jeong made the remarks in response to Saenuri Party Rep. Yoo Seong-min’s question during a parliamentary audit about whether he supports the deployment of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense.

“There are compatibility issues with the local ISR (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) assets,” Jeong said, indicating that South Korea would need to beef up its ISR assets before bringing in THAAD.

The deployment would be effective only when South Korea could establish an integrated system where the detection, recognition and interception of enemy-launched missiles could take place immediately because South Korea has a short distance between the frontline and rear posts, he noted.

Prodded to clarify, the Air Force chief said, “There are pros and cons from the military point of view,” striking a cautious tone over the alliance issue. “The Ministry of National Defense will decide after gauging various security conditions, including national interests.”

Washington is reportedly seeking to deploy the advanced defense system on South Korean soil to counter North Korea’s growing missile threats, although South Korea has said officially there has been neither consultation nor a decision on the issue between the allies.



http://www.koreatimesus.com/us-china-wont-accept-n-korea-as-nuclear-power/

http://www.koreaobserver.com/author/yonhap/




The price for one THAAD battery may reach around 3 trillion (US$2.5 billion), the Air Force chief noted, adding that the military is planning to adopt one more radar for the detection and tracking of ballistic missiles to counter North Korea’s ballistic missile threats.

http://www.koreaobserver.com/s-korea-undecided-yet-on-effectiveness-of-thaad-deployment-50122/

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Yonhap News Agency – Seoul, South Korea

NK Looks to Have Replaced Key Party Officials Handling Munitions Industry September 22, 2015

SEOUL, Sept. 22 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is presumed to have replaced key party officials in charge of the nation's missile and nuclear development with noticeably younger people, an analysis on the North's media reports showed Tuesday.

The North's move is seen as reinforcing its munitions sector at a time when North Korea is raising its missile and nuclear provocations, claiming that the launch of satellites and conducting a nuke test are the North's sovereign rights.

During Kim's field guidances at various munitions industry compounds, the young leader has been often accompanied by Kim Chun-sop, a newly elected member of the North's National Defense Commission, and Hong Yong-chil, deputy director of the machine-building industry department at the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK).

The leader replaced Park To-chun on the 10-member defense commission with Kim at a one-day parliamentary session that convened April 9 in Pyongyang. The 71-year-old Park was a former party secretary handling the North's missile and nuclear development.

Main figures dealing with the North's munitions industry under Kim's regime -- Park and the 87-year-old Ju Kyu-chang, who was a former director of the WPK's relevant department -- appeared to have been replaced by younger officials, according to the analysis on the North's reports.

Park and Ju were among three North Korean individuals designated by the United States in 2013 as those directly linked to North Korea's proliferation activities.

The title of Kim Chun-sop has not been made officially known, but he may have replaced Ju, given a pecking order shown in the North's media reports.

"The North's defense industry is the sector in which the North Korean leader can swiftly conduct personnel reshuffle as its development hinges on technology and achievement," said Chang Yong-seok, a researcher at the Seoul National University Institute for Peace and Unification Studies.

North Korea has recently made missile and nuclear threats as it vowed to launch satellites near the 70th



http://www.koreaobserver.com/s-korea-undecided-yet-on-effectiveness-of-thaad-deployment-50122/





anniversary of the WPK's founding, which outside analysts view as a cover for ballistic missile tests. Pyongyang has also hinted at conducting a fourth nuclear test.

The North has been pursuing a dual policy of developing nuclear weapons as well as boosting its ailing economy, commonly known as the "byeongjin policy."

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2015/09/22/0401000000AEN20150922007200315.html

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The People’s Daily Online – Beijing, China

Xi: Military Adventure "Never Crosses Our Mind" (Xinhua)

September 22, 2015

BEIJING, Sept. 22 -- Chinese President Xi Jinping said that going after some kind of military adventure "never crosses our mind" and reiterated the pledge that China will never practice expansionism or seek hegemony.

"In strengthening our defense and military building, we are not going after some kind of military adventure. It never crosses our mind," Xi said in a written interview with Wall Street Journal.

As a big country that has vast territorial land, sea and airspace and very long borders, China needs to maintain proper investment in defense and keep the troop size at an appropriate level, Xi said.

China has no military base in Asia and stations no troops outside its borders, and has long pledged never to practice expansionism and seek hegemony.

In fact, Xi announced not long ago a troop cut by 300,000. China has also contributed more UN peacekeepers than any other permanent member of the Security Council.

The Chinese military has played important roles in anti-piracy escort operation in the Gulf of Aden and in the shipping of chemical weapons out of Syria for destruction, and also has helped many counties to deal with natural disasters.

Xi vowed to do more within China's capacity to provide public security goods to the international community.

He also called on the United States to enhance cooperation and coordination with China in the Asia Pacific, implementing the principles of mutual respect and win-win cooperation vigorously.

"We welcome whatever that contributes to regional peace and stability, and oppose whatever that may lead to conflict and turmoil in the region," Xi said.

China participated in RIMPAC for the first time in 2014 and the two militaries are stepping up the two Confidence-Building Mechanisms. @ "We hope to identify still more converging ground in the region for the two countries, continuously build up strategic trust and work with other countries in making the region more peaceful, stable, and prosperous," Xi said.

http://en.people.cn/n/2015/0922/c90785-8953662.html

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http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2015/09/22/0401000000AEN20150922007200315.html

http://en.people.cn/n/2015/0922/c90785-8953662.html




The Korea Herald – Seoul, South Korea

Seoul to Create Special Unit to Attack N.K. Nuke, Missile Assets By Shin Hyon-hee

September 23, 2015

South Korea is seeking to create a special unit in the Army tasked with destroying North Korea’s nuclear weapons, long-range missiles and other strategic assets should an emergency break out, military officials said Wednesday.

The brigade-level organization will be installed within the Army’s Special Warfare Command, with its primary mission being to “strike the enemy’s core strategic targets,” the command stated in a report submitted to the National Assembly’s defense committee for a parliamentary audit.

“(The plan) is intended for operations in North Korea,” Commander Lt. Gen. Chang Kyung-suk said during the audit at the Army headquarters in the Gyeryongdae military compound in South Chungcheong Province.

“Work is underway to transform one of the six brigades forming the special forces into a unit that will run independent operations.”

While operable in the North on its own, the envisioned brigade may engage in joint actions with the U.S. such as for combat service support that requires infiltration tools, Chang noted.

The command also said in the report that it was pushing to set up a special aviation unit to boost independent infiltration capabilities by upgrading its aircraft and deploying high altitude infiltration equipment.

To better fend off the communist neighbor’s drone threats, the Army’s Capital Defense Command has established a new squad and beefed up related personnel, it said in a separate document.

A rising number of North Korean drones have encroached on South Korean airspace in recent years.

A year ago, the wreckage of a small unmanned aerial vehicle was collected by a fisherman near a border island in the West Sea. It was similar to drones found months earlier near Baengnyeongdo Island; Paju, Gyeonggi Province; and Samcheok, Gangwon Province.

The discovery has triggered concerns over what critics call porous air defense, especially after some of the drones were found to have taken as many as 200 pictures while flying over Cheong Wa Dae and other parts of Seoul, though the Defense Ministry said they were not sent back to the communist state.

“We’ve improved the capital air defense operation system, while securing more air-raid weapons on standby for combat missions,” the command said.

http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20150923001207

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The Korea Times – Seoul, South Korea

NK Missile Launch Sites Shrouded By Yi Whan-woo

September 24, 2015

North Korea has shrouded parts of a missile launch tower and a train station in Dongchang-ri due to apparent concerns about U.S. satellite monitoring, according to South Korean military and intelligence officials Thursday.



http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20150923001207





This boosts speculation that it may launch a long-range rocket on the occasion of the 70th anniversary of the foundation of its Workers' Party on Oct. 10. South Korea and other U.S.-led allies suspect such a launch would merely be a cover for a ballistic missile test banned by the United Nations.

The officials said covers were draped over the gantry of the missile launch pad, which the military regime has been upgrading and the work on which has been finished.

They added the secretive state has installed fences around Dongchang-ri train station, which is connected to Pyongyang directly by railway.

"It is suspected that North Korea is trying to cover up its work related to launching a long-range rocket not to reveal the size of the rocket and other characteristics," a military official said on condition of anonymity.

It is speculated a rocket will be assembled at a plant in the North Korean capital and shipped to the missile platform in Dongchang-ri, which is 200 kilometers northwest of Pyongyang.

However, it remains to be seen when such a shipment will take place.

Citing satellite images, the intelligence officials said no rocket had been spotted in and around Pyongyang.

Seoul also rejected speculation that Pyongyang's possible launch of a ballistic missile was "imminent" following a related report by CNN, Wednesday.

"We're closely monitoring the case and there are no signs that the launch is imminent," an official at the Ministry of Unification told reporters, asking not to be named. "There has been no particular activity at the missile launch pad in Dongchang-ri."

The announcement came after North Korea invited CNN into the country Wednesday and hinted that a satellite launch was "imminent" although it did not specify a time.

"We have finished the work of perfecting the control system of launching a satellite into outer space," Hyon Gwang-il, director of scientific development at the National Aeronautical Development Association (NADA) said during an exclusive interview with the U.S. media outlet. "And again we have nearly finished our important work of controlling a satellite which will be launched into orbit."

He also said that NADA had prepared multiple satellites and they were in the "final stages of perfecting all operations," CNN reported.

It has been widely speculated that the authoritative regime could celebrate the anniversary of the Workers' Party in an unprecedented fashion.

North Korea said on Sept. 14 that it was "pushing forward on the final phase of the development of a new Earth observation satellite for weather forecasting."

It also said on Sept. 15 that it had restarted operations at its nuclear facility in Yongbyon, the main site for its nuclear program. The U.N. also bans North Korea from carrying out nuclear tests and building weapons of mass destruction.

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2015/09/485_187496.html

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http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2015/09/485_187496.html




Want China Times – Taipei, Taiwan

CZ-6 Rocket Can Launch 20 Missiles at once, Including DF-5B ICBM By Staff Reporter

September 25, 2015

Sunday's successful launch of 20 microsatellites into orbit simultaneously using the Long March 6 carrier rocket indicates that China will now also be able to fire 20 missiles at once using the same technology, reports the Beijing-based Sina Military Network.

The Long March 6 — or CZ-6 — carrier rocket was launched from the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center in northern China's Shanxi province at 7:01am on Sept. 20, setting a new Asian record for the number of satellites launched by a single rocket.

Sina Military states that as microsatellites can be switched to warheads, the successful test means that the CZ-6, at 29.3 meters long and with a take-off weight of 103 tons, will also be able to carry the same number of missiles. While satellites are launched into orbit, missiles re-enter the atmosphere to strike targets, it noted.

Accordingly, a CZ-6 rocket can technically be a multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) for up to 20 missiles, each of which is capable of being aimed to hit one of a group of targets. This offers a distinct advantage over multiple reentry vehicles (MRV), which can carry several warheads which are dispersed but not individually aimed.

However, MIRVs still have their weaknesses, as individual missiles are not as powerful as a batch of warheads all aimed at the same target. The heavier weight also means they cannot be fired using road launchers.

For a missile to reach the range of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) — necessary to strike the US mainland — solid-fuel rockets would not be appropriate, meaning this would rule out China's DF-31 ICBM. On the other hand, the technology would be perfect for the DF-5B three-stage ICBM, which relies on liquid fuel and must be fired from a missile silo.

The ability to simultaneously launch 20 missiles, including the DF-5B, provides a major boost to China's odds of penetrating US missile defense systems, Sina Military said.

http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news/content?id=20150925000067&cid=1101

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TASS Russian News Agency – Moscow, Russia

Putin Says Financial Stability Should Be Secured for Russian Defence Sector Long-term programmes within the framework of the state programme on weapons have been approved in certain, he said

September 19, 2015

DONGUZSKY RANGE /the Orenburg region/, September 19. /TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin has demanded that financial stability should be secured for companies of the Russian defence sector amid negative trends in key macroeconomic indicators.

"The important goal is to ensure financial stability for enterprises of the defence industry," Putin told a meeting of the Military-Industrial Commission on Saturday.



http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news/content?id=20150925000067&cid=1101





Long-term programmes within the framework of the state programme on weapons have been approved in certain, rigid prices and those cannot be altered in the course of the programmes’ implementation, he said.

At the same time, the inflation rate is determined upon the results of the yearend, or in other words when state order commitments should be met, he said.

"Along with this, amid a negative trend in key macroeconomic indicators, the companies are faced with a difficult situation. They lose revenues they might invest in development and then difficulties with the budget emerge," he said. "In this context approaches should be elaborated that would secure the balance for financing state orders. I will underline again: strictly within the allocated resources."

"Everything is clear the [rouble exchange] rate is volatile and the amounts of money can be regarded as somewhat different but we do not need indicators on the paper, we need, as you all often say, ‘things’ - made of metal and supplied to the troops," the president said.

Supplementary investments should be drawn into enterprises of the defence industry to strengthen their economic position, he said noting that finances would allow to upgrade basic military and defence technology and to carry out research work and its applications for creating the most advanced weapons and military equipment.

http://tass.ru/en/defense/822321

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Strategy Page.com

Strategic Weapons: Russia Struggles September 19, 2015

On August 22nd Russia conducted another successful test of its RS-12M (RS-24/ Topol-M) ICBM. While this is an older (late 1980s) ballistic missile design it is still in service. Only about a hundred were built and 72 are installed in silos. As is Russian (and American) custom some silo based ICBMs are periodically fired for quality control purposes. The Russians used to fire the test missiles from their actual combat silos but now follow the American method of moving the missile to a test launch site. In this case it was Kapustin Yar in southern Russia. The RS-12M test sent the missile 10,000 kilometers to a missile testing site rented in Kazakhstan. The test warhead his its target area.

Originally the RS-12M ICBM was going to replace hundreds of older liquid-fueled ICBMs. But the end of the Cold War in 1991 and the sharp cuts in defense spending wrecked that plan. Since then an upgraded version of the RS-12M ICBM was developed and this one is replacing those older Cold War era ICBMs. Russia believes RS-24 is a worthy successor to the venerable, reliable and aging RS-18s. Reinforcing that attitude is a string of successful RS-24 test firings. Russia began deploying RS-24s in 2010. In 2013 the program to replace RS-18s with RS-24s accelerated, indicating a high degree of confidence in the RS-24 and enough cash to retire the RS-18s and build RS-24s to replace them. The 106 ton RS-18 is a 24.5 meter (76 foot) long missile that uses storable liquid fuel, meaning that the missile is inherently more complex than a solid fuel missile. But that also means you don’t require hours of preparation to fuel the missile. The RS-18 entered service in 1975, and it wasn't until the 1980s that Russia began producing reliable solid fuel rocket motors large enough for ICBMs like the 45 ton RS-12M. The last RS-18s were manufactured in 1990 and Russia expects each RS-18 to last 30 years if well maintained, regularly refurbished and needed badly enough.

The RS-18 was developed as a "light" ICBM, in effect, a competitor for the U.S. Minuteman series. The RS-18 was the first Russian ICBM to carry MIRV (multiple independently targeted reentry vehicles). The current RS-18 carries six warheads and has a range of 10,000 kilometers. RS-12M has a max range of 11,000 kilometers. Russia is also



http://tass.ru/en/defense/822321




extending the life of its heavier (217 ton) RS-20 ICBMs to 30 years. This missile carries ten warheads and is also being converted to launch satellites. Eventually RS-12M will probably replace this one as well.

In 2009 Russia announced that the latest version of the Topol series, the RS-24, had entered service. The RS-24 appears to be a slightly heavier version of the 46 ton RS-12M1/M2. The RS-24 is being deployed in silos as well as on wheeled vehicles. The RS-24 carried more warheads (up to ten) than the Topol-M. The Russians developed the RS-24 to enable them to use all the additional warheads to penetrate American missile defenses.

At one point Russia planned to develop a liquid-fuel ICBM to replace its RS-18 and RS-20 (SS-18) ICBMs. The prototype was built but not tested. Russia had also announced plans to replace the old liquid-fuel missiles with the Topol M and this plan is apparently being implemented with the RS-24. This depends on being able to avoid cut to the defense budget despite sanctions and low oil prices. As Russia learned in the 1980s, economic fundamentals win in the end. The Soviet Union dissolved in large part because it was broke.

It was never explained why Russia is sticking with liquid-fuel technology for the Cold War era “heavy” missiles. It might have something to do with the liquid-fuel missiles being able to lift heavier loads, making it possible to use them to also launch satellites. The liquid fueled missiles weighed 100-220 tons and had warhead weights of 5-9 tons. In contrast, all American ICBMs (including those launched from subs) are solid fueled and have a warhead weight similar to the RS-12M (about a ton). Russian SLBMs (Sea Launched ICBMs) also have the one ton warhead.

Russia continues to test launch older RS-18 and RS-20 ICBMs. Russia still has over a hundred (out of a 1980s peak of 360) RS-18s in service and expects to keep some of them active into the next decade or until replaced by the new design. The test firings for most of the last decade have been successful, and other quality-control tests have come back positive. Despite the post-Cold War collapse of the Russian military, cash and quality personnel kept going to the missile forces, which are the final defense of the largest nation on the planet.

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/hticbm/20150919.aspx

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The Independent – London, U.K.

Labour's Shadow Foreign Secretary Hilary Benn on Scrapping Trident and Leaving Nato: 'I Don't Think That Is Going to Happen' The Shadow Foreign Secretary told Andrew Marr that 'there'll be a debate - and Jeremy is encouraging that'

By Loulla-Mae Eleftheriou-Smith

Sunday, 20 September 2015

Labour’s newly-appointed Shadow Foreign Secretary Hilary Benn has revealed he does not believe the party will back nuclear disarmament or Britain’s withdrawal from Nato despite Jeremy Corbyn’s landslide victory for the leadership in which he carried the policies as part of his manifesto.

Appearing on The Andrew Marr Show, Mr Benn was asked whether he would serve in the Shadow Cabinet should the party vote in both the policies, and answered: “I don’t think that is going to happen”.

Mr Benn told Andrew Marr: “My view is that we need to maintain an independent nuclear deterrent. I share with Jeremy the wish to see a world that is free of nuclear weapons but I don’t believe for one second that if Briton were to give up its deterrent any other of the nuclear states would give theirs up.”

He added that Britain needs a “continuous at-sea deterrent, we need to do it in the most cost-effective way, and that is the view which the Labour party, including the Labour party conference, has taken for many years now”.



http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/hticbm/20150919.aspx





The Shadow Foreign Secretary said that ultimately it will be the Labour party conference that decides, “but there’ll be a debate and Jeremy is encouraging that”.

In terms of Labour backing Britain’s withdrawal from Nato, Mr Benn said “I simply don’t see that happening”.

“We have been members of Nato since it was created - in part with the support of the Labour government at the end of the Second World War that created the NHS, and Ernie Bevin was the Foreign Secretary that helped make it happen - and it has been a cornerstone of our security and I simply don’t see that happening.”

Mr Corbyn has recently softened his position on leaving Nato due to the lack of support on the issue and has instead called for a “serious debate” on its powers.

Last week Labour’s new Deputy Leader Tom Watson said he aimed to “convince” Mr Corbyn of the merits of Nato, and touched upon the difference of opinion within the party over Trident, which he believes has “kept the peace in the world for half a century”.

“We have got to find ways of alighting on policy, and if you’re a democratic party you’ve got to have that debate and I’m sure Trident is one of those issues where we’ll do that,” he told Mr Marr.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labours-shadow-foreign-secretary-hilary-benn-on-scrapping-trident-and-leaving-nato-i-dont-think-that-10509712.html

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Daily Express – London, U.K.

How Close We Came to Armageddon: Russian Bombers Began to Arm NUKE near UK Airspace PILOTS in one of the two Russian supersonic bombers intercepted near UK skies last week had started the countdown to arm a nuclear bomb, sources revealed last night.

By Marco Giannangeli, EXCLUSIVE

Monday, September 21, 2015

The discovery was made after RAF specialists analyzed a four-second signal transmitted from one of the Tupolev Tu-160 bombers, known by Nato as "Blackjacks", in the days following Thursday's incursion.

Analysts at RAF Boulmer, Britain's Control and Reporting Centre, confirmed that the Russian bombers had begun the sequence to arm nuclear weapons while carrying out the incursion.

It is not the first time they have done this and comparison with a similar signal transmitted by a TU-95 "Bear" bomber revealed Russian air crew had begun the countdown during an incursion last year, as well.

The Sunday Express revealed that the bomber involved in the February 2014 incident had been carrying a submarine-busting nuclear depth charge designed to attack Britain's Trident-carrying Vanguard submarines.

"All I can say is that we now know it related to the first stage of arming a nuclear device," said a senior RAF source last night.

"There are several additional arming procedures which, thankfully, were not carried out."

Last week's air incursion, which was intercepted by Two RAF Typhoon jets, was the seventh this year by Russian forces.








RAF Boulmer, in Longhoughton. Northmberland, is the headquarters of the Air Surveillance and Control System force and the nerve centre of UK air security operations. Once a target is tracked the information is fed into the NATO network operated by the Combined Air Operations Centre at Uedem, Germany and the RAF's Air Defence Operations Centre at Air Command, High Wycombe.

However it was only when a female analyst decoded last week's transmission that it was realised Russia had carried out a similar exercise last year.

Aviation expert Justin Bronk, of the Royal United Services Institute think tank, said the revelation confirmed a "worrying" development in Russian strategy.

"Putin does not allow his air force to fly with cruise missiles because he is so worried about defections, but dual purpose bombs such as nuclear depth charges are a different matter. And these are designed to be a direct threat to or nuclear deterrent.

"It is entirely probable that Russian crews have been practicing arming drills. The whole process can take several minutes, and it is important to be able to carry out quickly."

He added that the lack of Nimrod maritime surveillance patrol aircraft made the situation more worrying.

Britain's Nimrod fleet, which was scrapped as part of the SDR in 2010, used to perform so-called "delousing" exercises, whereby it would give advanced warning of Russian aircraft when Trident-carrying Vanguard submarines set off on patrol.

"There is no doubt that, by going through even the initial stages of the nuclear arming sequence, Russia is sending Britain clear signals. This is classic Cold War operation, and it is not a game."

Nato aircraft were "scrambled" more than 500 times over Europe in 2014, a fourfold increase over the previous year. Almost 90 per cent of those flights involved Russian incursions. The number of Russian incursions had already reached 300 by the end of last month, suggesting this year will see numbers akin to the height of the Cold War.

Most Russian aircraft fly without transponders so as not to give away their positions, making them a safety hazard to other air traffic.

"Scrambles are launched in response to Russian activity,' said Nato spokesman Lieutenant-Colonel Jay Janzen, recently.

"The sole aim is to preserve the integrity of Nato European airspace and to safeguard Nato nations from air attacks."

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/606505/Armageddon-Russian-bombers-arm-nuclear-bomb-UK-airspace

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Russia Beyond the Headlines (RBTH) – Moscow, Russia

Last Chemical Munition Destroyed at Shchuchye Facility Russian Interfax News Agency

September 22, 2015

All chemical weapons have been destroyed at the Shchuchye facility in the Kurgan region. "Today the last munition was destroyed here. Thus, all stockpiles of chemical weapons at these facilities have been eliminated," Col. Gen. Valery Kapashin, head of the Federation Agency for Safe Storage and Destruction of Chemical Weapons, told Interfax-AVN on Sept.22.



http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/606505/Armageddon-Russian-bombers-arm-nuclear-bomb-UK-airspace





A total of 5,500 tonnes of toxic agents within more than 1.9 million chemical artillery munitions have been destroyed at Shchuchye, he said. "Some of them were complex-structure munitions containing not only toxic but also explosive substances which could not be extracted," the agency said in a press release.

The plant at Shchuchye is the fifth of the seven Russian arsenals to have destroyed all stockpiles of chemical weapons. To date, Russia has destroyed around 91.4 percent of its stockpiles, Kapashin said.

The Shchuchye facility has become the fifth - after Gorny (Saratov region), Kambarka (Udmurtia), Leonidovka (Penza Region) and Maradykovsky (Kirov Region) - to have completed the process of destroying chemical weapons.

Leonidovka was the world's first facility to use an industrial installation to destroy complex-structure chemical munitions. The installation has proved its efficiency and safe operation while being used at Leonidovka. "Very soon the destruction of chemical weapons will also be completed in the Bryansk region [the Pochep facility]," Kapashin said.

Subsequently, the Russian chemical disarmament program will continue at the Kizner facility in Udmurtia, the last one to have been commissioned (in December 2013). By now Kizner has destroyed around 40 percent of its toxic agent stockpiles, Kapashin said.

The facilities which have completed the process will need to be made safe: their equipment will be decontaminated and their land recultivated, he said. "These measures will begin as early as January 2016," the general said.

http://rbth.com/news/2015/09/22/last_chemical_munition_destroyed_at_shchuchye_facility_49464.html

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Ukraine Today.tv – Kyiv, Ukraine

Ukraine Wants Help to Build Nuclear Defence Shield - Arseniy Yatsenyuk September 22, 2015

Ukraine relinquished nuclear arsenal in return for security guarantees agreed with West and Moscow

Ukraine aims to establish military defences capable of protecting against a Russian nuclear attack.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk told a meeting of the National Security Council attended by visiting dignatory NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg that Ukraine needed assistance with developing its defence against Russia.

Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Ukrainian Prime Minister: "We have never asked for offensive weapons. But we have to defend our country. We must defend peace, tranquility and stability, in Europe as well. We need defense capabilities against nuclear power. Russia spent tens of billions of dollars in order to upgrade its army and intimidating today the entire civilized world."

The Budapest Memorandum agreed in 1994 between Ukraine and world powers guaranteed Ukraine's territorial integrity, in return for giving up its nuclear weapons.

http://uatoday.tv/politics/ukraine-wants-help-to-build-nuclear-defence-shield-arseniy-yatsenyuk-498674.html

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http://rbth.com/news/2015/09/22/last_chemical_munition_destroyed_at_shchuchye_facility_49464.html

http://uatoday.tv/politics/ukraine-wants-help-to-build-nuclear-defence-shield-arseniy-yatsenyuk-498674.html




Daily Telegraph – London, U.K.

Jeremy Corbyn Gets Chance to Argue for Scrapping Trident at Labour Conference A debate on the future of Britain's nuclear deterrent is to take place at next week's Labour party conference in Brighton

By Michael Wilkinson, Political Correspondent

22 September 2015

Labour's annual conference is set to debate calls for the UK's Trident nuclear weapons system to be scrapped.

A number of local constituency parties have tabled motions opposing Trident ahead of the conference, which opens in Brighton on Sunday.

It is understood that some of the motions have been accepted as being "contemporary" and are likely to be debated, giving new Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn a chance to set out his position on Trident.

A decision on the future of the Trident nuclear weapons system is due next year, with opponents, including CND, arguing that at a time of public spending cuts, the Government should not be spending billions of pounds on nuclear weapons and over £100 billion on a replacement for Trident.

"It is time to comply with our obligation under international law to accomplish the total elimination of our nuclear arsenal. By doing so we would send a message to the world that spending for peace and development and meeting people's real needs is our priority, not spending on weapons of mass destruction," said a spokesman for CND.

The Liberal Democrats' annual conference has rejected a call to scrap Britain's nuclear weapons.

Gary Smith, the GMB's acting secretary in Scotland, warned that Labour should not "abandon" Britain's defence strategy for "solely political reasons".

He said: "The 40,000 defence workers in Scotland are as vital to our national security as the armed forces. Without the skills of the workforce in the yards on the Clyde and Rosyth the Royal Navy could not defend the nation.

"It makes no sense to abandon our long-standing overall defence strategy unilaterally for solely political reasons. That goes for Trident and the jobs at Faslane and Barrow.

"The truth is the peace dividend from the fall of the Berlin Wall brought unemployment and poverty to towns like Plymouth. Dockyard jobs in Portsmouth have been replaced by zero hours retail work.

"The Labour Party and the Scottish Government need to get real on jobs. Without defence work there will be no Clyde shipyards and Falmouth would probably face closure. The same goes for Barrow. The real casualties will be the communities if these highly skilled, well paid irreplaceable jobs are given up."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/11882517/Jeremy-Corbyn-gets-chance-to-argue-for-scrapping-Trident-at-Labour-conference.html

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FARS News Agency – Tehran, Iran

Saturday, September 19, 2015

Leader's Top Aide Describes Termination of Sanctions as Necessity for Deal TEHRAN (FNA) - Iranian Supreme Leader's top adviser for international affairs Ali Akbar Velayati underscored that as emphasized by the Islamic Republic since the beginning of the nuclear negotiations, the sanctions against Tehran should be terminated.

"The recent emphasis laid by Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei on the termination of the sanctions mirrored the same views he has had since the beginning (of nuclear talks with the world powers) and it should be materialized," Velayati told FNA on Saturday.

He referred to Ayatollah Khamenei's remarks that Iran would act upon its undertakings only if the sanctions were terminated and that if the world powers didn't keep their promises, Tehran would continue nuclear progress irrespective of the agreement, and said, "It is understood from the Supreme Leader's remarks that balance is necessary in the two sides' measures and in case of imbalance, nothing will be done."

His remarks came after Ayatollah Khamenei's September 3 comments on the US officials' claims on the suspension of sanctions, where he stressed that Tehran had always underlined the necessity for the termination and not suspension of embargoes.

"If the sanctions are not due to be removed, then there will be no deal either. Hence, there needs to be a decision to be taken in this regard," he added.

He said Iran had made some concessions during the negotiations with the world powers in order to see a removal of the sanctions in return, otherwise Tehran wouldn't have attended the negotiations and Iran could have increased its 19,000 centrifuges to 60,000 centrifuges, continue 20% uranium enrichment and accelerate its research and development activities.

"If the sanctions are due to be suspended, our actions should also be arranged in the form of suspension and not essential measures on the ground," Ayatollah Khamenei said.

"Of course, the other side says that removal of certain sanctions is not within the US administration's authority; in response we say that those sanctions that fall under the US administration and the European governments' authority should be terminated," he added.

Iran and the world powers reached a final agreement in Vienna on July 14 to end a 13-year-old nuclear standoff.

A week later, the UNSC unanimously endorsed a draft resolution turning into international law the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) reached between Iran and the 5+1 group of countries (the US, Russia, China, Britain and France plus Germany) over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program.

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13940628000604

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Tasnim News Agency –Tehran, Iran

Iran Says IAEA Chief Amano Visits Parchin Military Site September 21, 2015

TEHRAN (Tasnim) – Behrouz Kamalvandi, the spokesman of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), announced on Sunday that the UN nuclear agency’s chief had a visit to Parchin military site, near Tehran.

Kamalvandi said the visit to Parchin by Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Yukiya Amano took place as a formality arranged during his one-day official visit to the country.

“In this visit, Amano visited a number of workshop locations at the complex that have been the subject of unfounded allegations, especially the process of the repair and reconstruction of the access road to the Mamlou Dam near Parchin, which went down in a landslide due to recent rainfall,” he explained.

The West has claimed that alleged secret nuclear activity is underway at the site, an allegation that has categorically been denied by Tehran.

The AEOI spokesman further said that as requested by Iranian lawmakers, arrangements were also made for IAEA chief to participate in a session of the Iranian parliamentary committee to review the recent agreement made between Iran and the Group 5+1 dubbed as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Earlier today, the IAEA had said in a statement that the UN nuclear agency chief's discussions with high-level Iranian officials focused on the continued implementation of the Road-map to resolve all past and present outstanding issues.

Iran and six world powers (Russia, China, the US, Britain, France and Germany) finalized the JCPOA in the Austrian capital of Vienna on July 14.

On the same day, Iran and the IAEA signed a Road-map for the clarification of past and present issues.

As part of the Road-map, the IAEA is required to finish its investigations about Iran’s nuclear activities and submit a report to the agency’s board by December 15.

http://www.tasnimnews.com/english/Home/Single/865922

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Press TV – Tehran, Iran

Samples Taken at Iran Military Site; No IAEA Inspectors Present: Official Monday, September 21, 2015

Iranian experts have taken environmental samples from the Parchin military site near the capital, Tehran, without the International Atomic Energy Agency’s inspectors being present, says an Iranian official.

“Iranian experts took environmental samples from specific locations at Parchin complex without the presence of the Agency’s inspectors,” said Behrouz Kamalvandi, a spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), in an interview with IRNA on Monday.

The samples were taken in accordance with relevant directives and procedures, and were submitted to IAEA experts, Kamalvandi added.

He said the sample-taking followed recent talks between Iran and the IAEA on mutual cooperation within the framework of a “road map” agreed upon by both sides.



http://www.tasnimnews.com/english/Home/Single/865922





“With AEOI-IAEA cooperation continuing within the framework of the road map, IAEA experts traveled to Iran last week and held several technical and legal meetings to discuss the remaining questions and issues,” said the spokesman.

He said the meetings followed a “constructive” trend, and that the two sides agreed to wrap up their discussions by October 15 at the latest.

Two-day expert-level talks between Iran and the IAEA concluded in Tehran last Wednesday. The negotiations are slated to continue in late September.

Kamalvandi said on Sunday that IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano had visited the Parchin military site locatd 30 kilometers (19 miles) southeast of Tehran as a formality arranged during his brief stay in Iran.

Iran has repeatedly denied Western allegations about secret nuclear activity at the site.

Iran and the P5+1 – the US, the UK, France, China and Russia plus Germany – reached an agreement dubbed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in the Austrian capital of Vienna on July 14.

On the same day, Ali Akbar Salehi head of AEOI and Amano signed a road map for “the clarification of past and present issues.” As part of the road map, the IAEA is required to finish its investigations into Iran’s nuclear activities and submit a report to the agency’s board by December 15.

http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2015/09/21/430110/IAEA-AEOI-Parchin-Behrouz-Kamalvandi-Yukiya-Amano-JCPOA

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Mehr News Agency – Tehran, Iran

IRGC Commander: Iran’s Deterrence Removed War from US Agenda

Tuesday, 22September 2015

TEHRAN, Sep. 22 (MNA) – Emphasizing that the Islamic Revolution’s deterrence has taken the war option out of the US agenda, IRGC Navy Commander deemed the nature of Iran-US dispute as analogous to the conflict between Right and Wrong .

Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Navy Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi made a speech at the open session of the Parliament on Tuesday on the occasion on the Sacred Defense Week.

Dividing the war into four time periods, Fadavi stated that, “at the first stage, Iraq made a military attack against Iran while at the second stage Iranians came to push Iraqi forces back at the order of Imam Khomeini”.

“During the third phase, we made plans to expel the invaders from the country and in the fourth stage, which lasted for three or four years, carried out operations to block the possibility of Iraq’s re-invasion”.

Enumerating several astonishing achievements of IRGC Navy Forces during the Imposed War which were all in line with the commands and guidelines of Imam Khomeini, the commander underlined that, “for several years we have possessed an effective deterrence; hence the US dare not carry out even the simplest military operations near the Persian Gulf”.

“The confrontation between Iran and US has a nature similar to the conflict between right and wrong and the juxtaposition of these two is impossible under any circumstances,” he asserted.

He emphasized that IRGC will stand against the US not only in words but also in action.

http://en.mehrnews.com/news/110346/Iran-s-deterrence-removed-war-from-US-agenda

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http://en.mehrnews.com/news/110346/Iran-s-deterrence-removed-war-from-US-agenda





Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Spokesman: IAEA to Declare Result of Parchin Samplings in 2 Months TEHRAN (FNA) - Spokesman of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) Behrouz Kamalvandi said the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will declare the results of the samples taken by Iranian experts from the Parchin site near Tehran in the next two months.

"The IAEA has announced that studying these samples might take one or two months; we insisted that studying the samples should finish sooner in a bid to expedite accomplishing the work within the deadline and if the IAEA cooperates the results will be announced in the next four or five weeks," Kamalvandi, also an AEOI Deputy Chief, said on Tuesday.

He noted that the first step was the IAEA's endorsement of the fact that the Parchin samples are genuine and comply with its standards and fortunately IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano's statements show that the Iranian experts have accomplished their job carefully and in accordance with the preciseness needed.

"What might take more time than anything else is studying these samples otherwise we have responded to all other issues and there is practically nothing left to be done; we should wait for Amano to submit his final report to the board of governors and also the board's final statement," Kamalvandi said, elaborating on future steps within the framework of Iran-IAEA roadmap of cooperation.

He pointed to Amano's visit to Parchin region as an attempt to remove the ambiguities without violating Iran's redlines, and said, "No investigation was made at the site during this visit because the IAEA inspectors usually use tools and equipment which can be troublesome as they could be used for spying purposes."

Kamalvandi reiterated that Amano did not have any equipment, even a mobile phone, when he visited the site on Sunday.

"Visiting Parchin (by Amano) was useful and it will surely result in the removal of ambiguities after years of (media) hypes through satellite images," he added.

He reiterated that there are no plans for the IAEA inspectors' visit to Iran's military sites or interview with the country's nuclear experts and scientists.

On Monday, Kamalvandi said that Iranian nuclear experts had taken environmental samples from Parchin without UN inspectors around.

"Iranian experts took samples from specific locations in Parchin facilities this week without IAEA inspectors being present," Kamalvandi told reporters.

In relevant remarks on Monday, Iran's Ambassador to the IAEA Reza Najafi categorically rejected a news report by the Reuters news agency quoting Amano as saying that the sampling at Parchin military site had been done under IAEA experts' supervision.

"We have not allowed any IAEA inspector into Parchin site to take samples or supervise our sampling; we have taken the samples by ourselves," Najafi told FNA.

Najafi's remarks came in reaction to a Reuters report quoting Amano as saying that the sampling in Parchin was done under the supervision of the IAEA.

Najafi reiterated that Iranian experts have taken all the samples themselves, and said, "These are our redlines and no inspector is allowed to enter a military site for inspection."

The Iranian envoy underlined that the visit by Amano and his deputy was a general visit that was done as a formality, and said, "They did not have any equipment even a mobile phone and their visit (to Parchin) did not last for more than a few minutes."







He said Amano's very brief visit to Parchin was only meant to "show him that there was not anything suspicious about the site and that the claims about Parchin are completely false".

Reuters quoted Amano as saying that "certain IAEA safeguards activities were carried out at the particular location at the Parchin site; these included the taking of environmental samples."

"The agency can confirm the integrity of the sampling process and the authenticity of the samples, which were taken at places of interest to the agency at the particular location in Parchin," Amano told reporters, according to Reuters.

"Authentication by the agency of the samples was achieved through use of an established verification process. The process was carried out under our responsibility and monitoring; the samples have been brought back to Vienna for analysis," he added according to the report.

Also on Monday, a senior Iranian foreign ministry official said that Amano was given a tour of Iran's Parchin military site to show him that all allegations made about the center are no more than lies.

"Yesterday was an important day in the process of the settlement of Iran's nuclear issue and thanks God, the fictions made by ill-wishers against our country about Parchin military site were revealed," Director General for Political Affairs at the Iranian Foreign Ministry Hamid Baeidinejad wrote on his Instagram page.

Amano visited Tehran on September 20, and met with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Vice-President and Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) Ali Akbar Salehi and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. He also met with members of the Iranian Parliament.


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Trend News Agency – Baku, Azerbaijan

Iran Says to Meet No Limitations Regarding Missiles By Mehdi Sepahvand, Trend

22 September 2015

Iran Army Commander Ataollah Salehi has said the country will meet no limitation regarding its missile system.

The official further said that Iran would not allow any foreign authority to access its missile facilities either, Fars news agency reported Sept. 22.

Asked of his opinion about restrictions on Iran’s missile program under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Salehi said the technical terms of the JCPOA are different from media reports claiming such restrictions.

There are reports that the JCPOA contains parts that restrict Iran’s military program, missile capabilities in particular. Some parties in Iran worry that the terms of the deal are arranged so as to weaken the country militarily.

On the possibility of Iran-US cooperation in fighting the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), he said since the US is actually the one that operates the terrorist group, Iran cannot have any cooperation with the US in that regard.

Following Iran’s landmark nuclear deal, there has been talk that Iran and the US may see the deal as a prelude to more cooperation, especially regarding regional crises including terrorism. However, Iranian officials have repeatedly said the deal relates only to the nuclear field and should not create any further implication.







In response to a question about Iran-Russia cooperation in fighting regional terrorism, Salehi said Iran is not bound to any external force in meeting terrorism, but rather pushes its own agenda.

http://en.trend.az/iran/nuclearp/2436150.html

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Tehran Times – Tehran, Iran

Zarif Names Araqchi to Implement Nuclear Deal Tehran Times Political Desk

Wednesday, 23 September 2015

TEHRAN – Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif on Tuesday appointed his deputy Abbas Araqchi as the head of the committee to implement the nuclear deal with the 5+1 group (the U.S., Britain, Germany, France, Russia and China).

The appointment came as the nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, is entering the implementation stage.

The committee is different from the Majlis Special Committee on the JCPOA and is tasked to examine the process of the implementation of the JCPOA.

Iranian nuclear negotiating team, headed by Foreign Minister Zarif, departed for New York early on Tuesday to consult with 5+1 group about legal, technical and executive aspects of the JCPOA.

This will be the first meeting between Iran and 5+1 in the two months since the conclusion of the nuclear talks.

On September 17 U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry tapped a former ambassador to Poland and career diplomat to lead U.S. efforts to implement the nuclear accord.

The nuclear deal was sealed between Iran and the six world powers on July 14 in Vienna.

http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=249605

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Trend News Agency – Baku, Azerbaijan

Iran: Relations with US on Hold, Waiting for Nuke Deal Implementation By Umid Niayesh, Trend

23 September 2015

The Iran-US relation is still in waiting phase, Hooshang Amirahmadi the president of American Iranian Council told Trend Sept. 23.

The expert made the remarks while commenting about the Tehran-Washington ties in the short-term.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has closed all doors to the relations with the US, Amirahmadi said, adding Khamenei is waiting for the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) by the other side, including lifting the sanctions.



http://en.trend.az/iran/nuclearp/2436150.html

http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=249605





If the implementation of the nuclear accord satisfies Khamenei, he will permit for negotiating issues beyond the nuclear case, the expert added.

After several months of talks, on July 14, Iran and the P5+1 (US, Russia, China, France, UK, and Germany) announced a final accord, curbing Iran 's nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of most international sanctions.

Following the deal, Khamenei, who has the last word in the Islamic Republic has emphasized that he did not issue permission for negotiations on other topics with the US and Tehran-Washington talks will never go beyond the nuclear issue.

Meanwhile the country’s pragmatist president Hassan Rouhani has expressed readiness to hold talks with the US on ways to resolve the Syrian civil war.

Amirahmadi believes that if the nuclear deal faces some problems via Iran ’s viewpoint in implementation phase or new sanctions are imposed against Tehran , the mutual ties between Iran and the US will become even worse than the pre-deal period.

He further touched upon the speculations about the possible meeting of Rouhani with his US counterpart Barack Obama in New York on the sidelines of the 70th United Nations General Assembly which will kick off on September 25.

No official visit is scheduled, Amirahmadi said, underlining that materializing of an unplanned, accidental meeting is very unlikely as well.

He further said that if it happens it will be similar to a miracle.

“The Iranian side has neither plan, nor purpose for meeting while Khamenei has not issued any permission for that.”

Iran’s supreme leader has allegedly even banned any phone talk between foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif with his US counterpart John Kerry.

It should be noted that Rouhani and Obama spoke by phone in September 2013 on the sidelines of the annual UN General Assembly. The phone conversation was the first direct communication in decades between the heads of state of the two countries. Iranian conservatives severely criticized Rouhani on the issue.

Amirahmadi said that Rouhani and his top diplomat will most likely carry on a popular diplomacy in their New York visit, trying to convince the US public opinion including the US Iranians about the nuclear deal.

They will also try running a trust-building diplomacy in New York , to assure their nuclear negotiating parts from the EU and US about Iran ’s goodwill in implementing the deal.

Rouhani will leave Tehran for New York on Sept. 24. He will deliver a speech and hold meetings with heads of states and officials of other countries. Rouhani is also scheduled to meet Iranians living in the US and to have interview with different TV networks.

This is the third visit of Rouhani to New York since he took power in August 2013.

http://en.trend.az/iran/politics/2436499.html

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http://en.trend.az/iran/politics/2436499.html





Thursday, September 24, 2015

Defense Ministry Stresses Failure of US, Allies' Scenarios against Iran TEHRAN (FNA) - The Iranian defense ministry expressed confidence that the US and its allies would fail in their plots against the Islamic Republic.

"Despite their the chain of their undeniable defeats and failures in breaking the honorable resistance of the Iranian nation, the devil and arrogant powers have put into action their cruel and hostile scenarios against the Iranian nation once again and similar to the past three decades by utilizing all their regional and trans-regional capacities, elements and streams with the focus of their attention fixed on threat and sanctions," a statement by the defense ministry said on Wednesday on the occasion of the start of the Sacred Defense Week, commemorating Iranians' sacrifices during the 8 years of the Iraqi-imposed war on Iran in 1980s.

Meantime, the statement, underlined that the arrogant powers and their allies' plots against the Iranian nation would prove futile given the presence of a wise Leader and Iran's full defensive preparedness.

The statement was issued after the Iranian Armed Forces publicly displayed 12 long-range ballistic missiles for the first time after Tehran and the world powers reached a nuclear agreement and the UN Security Council issued a non-binding resolution which calls for restrictions on Iran's missile program.

The nationwide parades by various units of the Islamic Republic Army, IRGC, Law Enforcement Police and Basij (volunteer) forces were staged in Tehran and other cities across the country on Tuesday morning.

The parades marked the start of the Sacred Defense Week.

Different units of Iran's military forces marched in uniform before top Army and IRGC commanders and President Hassan Rouhani in a show of military might and defensive power.

Also the latest military and defense achievements made by Iranian experts were put on display at the parades.

During the parades, the Iranian Armed Forces displayed 12 long-range ballistic missiles, including 4 Qadr F missiles with a range of 1,950km, Qadr H missiles with a range of 1,650km and 4 Sejjil missiles with a range of 2,000km.

Also, 4 Khalij-e Fars anti-ship ballistic missiles and 4 Hormoz anti-ship and radar-evading missiles with a range of 300km were among other missiles displayed in today's parades.

The public display of Iran's long-range ballistic missiles was seen as a defiance of the western states' demand and resolution 2231 which calls for restrictions on Iran's missile program.

The resolution was issued after Iran and the world powers reached a nuclear agreement on July 14.

Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Hossein Dehqan underlined in August that the country's defensive and missile capabilities would growingly increase regardless of any foreign pressures and resolutions.

"No element can weaken our resolve in the defensive field," Dehqan said in an interview with state TV.

"We will design and produce any missiles that we want proportionate to threats and we will conduct drills and tests in due time," he added.

Dehqan stressed that Iran would further boost the range of its missiles appropriate to possible threats.

He referred to the UN Security Council 2231 resolution, and said Tehran didn’t and would not have any plans to manufacture missiles with the capability of carrying nuclear weapons but it will bolster its defensive capabilities similar to the past.

The Iranian Armed Forces have test-fired different types of newly-developed missiles and torpedoes and tested a large number of home-made weapons, tools and equipment, including submarines, military ships, artillery,







choppers, aircrafts, UAVs and air defense and electronic systems, during massive military drills in the last few years.

Defense analysts and military observers say that Iran's war-games and its advancements in weapons production have proved as a deterrent factor.

Iran successfully tested second generation of Sejjil missiles and brought it into mass production in 2013.

Sejjil missiles are considered as the third generation of Iran-made long-range missiles.

Also, Iran's 2000km-range, liquid-fuel, Qadr F ballistic missile can reach territories as far as Israel.

Iran's surface-to-surface Sejjil missile, the long-range Shahab-3 ballistic missile which has a range of up to 2,000 km, and Zelzal and Fateh missiles have all been developed by the Aerospace Organization of the Defense Industries.

This is while the solid-fuel, two-stage Sejjil missile with two engines, is capable of reaching a very high altitude and therefore has a longer range than that of the Shahab 3 model.


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Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) – Tehran, Iran

25 September 2015

Amano Confirms Iran's Cooperation within IAEA's Verification Scheme Tehran, Sept 25, IRNA – Secretary of the International Atomic Energy Agency Yukiya Amano confirmed Iran's participation in his agency's verification process.

On Thursday, Amano pushed back against critics questioning the wisdom of letting Iranian experts take samples meant to help determine whether their own country clandestinely worked in the past on atomic arms, saying he is convinced the process was faultless.

Amano's statements came less than a week after confirming that Iranians did the environmental sampling at a site where such alleged experiments took place.

Personnel from his International Atomic Energy Agency normally do the work of swiping equipment and sampling the soil and air at sites they suspect was used for hidden nuclear activities.

Noting that the Iranians were under stringent IAEA monitoring, Amano then said he was confident 'so far' that the samples were genuine.

He appeared to go further on Thursday, however. While declining to say how far his agency's laboratory analysis has gone, he said he is 'very sure that ... the samples are authentic.'

http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81772198/

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http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81772198/




The Diplomat – Tokyo, Japan

OPINION/The Koreas

How Many Nukes Does North Korea Have? Pyongyang confirmed that its nuclear facility is back online, but there’s still a lot we don’t know about the program.

By John Power for The Diplomat

September 18, 2015

With the announcement by state media that its main nuclear facility has resumed normal operations, North Korea’s atomic weapons program is back in the public eye.

The news, reported by the Korean Central News Agency on Tuesday, dovetails with a report released in April by the Institute for Science and International Security, which cited satellite imagery as evidence that the facility’s plutonium reactor was back online.

The Yongbyon nuclear complex was shuttered in 2007 as a result of international denuclearization talks involving the United States, China, Russia, South Korea and Japan. Then, in 2013, at a time of elevated tensions with the U.S. and South Korea, Pyongyang declared its intention to restart the facility.

In a typically bellicose statement on Tuesday, the head of the country’s atomic energy agency warned that Pyongyang was ready to deploy nuclear weapons against the U.S. at “any time” if it didn’t desist with its “reckless hostile policy.”

North Korea definitively answered the question of whether it possesses atomic weapons when it carried out its first nuclear test in 2006. But what remains far less clear to this day is just how many such devices it may have.

Estimates vary significantly: In April, The Wall Street Journal cited unnamed Chinese experts as saying Pyongyang could already possess 20 warheads; the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University has estimated 10-16 devices.

Jeffery Lewis, the founder of Arms Control Wonk.com, told The Diplomat that a dozen warheads is probably a safe bet.

“I just estimate based on the amount of plutonium — call it a dozen weapons with a fair amount of uncertainty,” he said.

Yet, that estimate does not account for North Korea’s parallel uranium enrichment program, which Lewis described as a “major unknown.”

Uranium enrichment facilities are easier to conceal than plutonium-based reactors, according to experts. With access to North Korea heavily restricted and the full extent of its capabilities unknown, precise estimates are beyond reach.

In April, nuclear proliferation expert Siegfried Hecker, who has visited Yongbyon multiple times, outlined some of the challenges of gauging the reality.

“Developing these estimates is not an exact science,” he told the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University. “There are huge uncertainties in estimating the enrichment capacity that is likely present at







covert sites. One particular problem is the difficulty in assessing how much indigenous capacity North Korea has to make the key materials and components for centrifuges.”

John Power is a journalist who has been based in Seoul, South Korea since 2010. His work has appeared in The Christian Science Monitor, The Daily Mail, NK News, Sisa-In Magazine, UCA News, Asian Geographic and The Korea Herald.

http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/how-many-nukes-does-north-korea-have/

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Times of Oman – Muscat, Oman

OPINION/Columnist

Second Strike N-Capability Key to Stable Deterrence September 19, 2015

By Kamran Rehmat

Last week Pakistan claimed that it had acquired a second strike nuclear capability, raising a fresh debate surrounding its much vaunted programme of deterrence. Needless to say, any discussion about such weapons grade capability in this part of the world is in the context of a nuclear neighbourhood.

The claim by Lt.-General (retired) Naeem Khalid Lodhi, a former defence secretary, was made at a seminar at the Strategic Vision Institute, a think-tank based in the capital Islamabad.

Even though it is not the first time speculation on the issue has made its way into the public sphere — US media reports have purported to such development previously — it carries a certain significance coming from someone having more than a nodding acquaintance with the programme’s broader parameters.

Given the secrecy surrounding Pakistan’s nuclear programme, it is not clear how close, if at all is to the deployment of submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), but the recent deployment of Hatf-VII/Babar nuclear-capable cruise missiles and Hatf-VIII/Ra’ad air launched cruise missile lend credence to the new ‘body language’ in Islamabad.

The second strike capability is of great importance in the context of Pakistan’s deterrence regime, for the general consensus until now has been that Islamabad only had a first-use option. In the hypothetical event of its land-based nuclear arsenal being neutralised, the game would have been up. Not so, if the latest claim holds water.

This nuclear parity is what enables Pakistan not to have to contend with the deep cleavage evident in a conventional war scenario. The sheer scale of both men and material on the other side of the border is too vast for Pakistan to match. Small wonder then Islamabad has vigorously pursued the idea of deterrence forced upon it by geographical considerations and certain a historical baggage.

But is the speed turning to greed with regard to need? The statistics would suggest so — but then, statistics can often be misleading as any aficionado will vouch. Consider.

According to the figures trotted out by the US Department of State this year, Pakistan probably has a more robust nuclear arsenal than India with its estimated tally of a 110 warheads to 100 although the two countries use different fissile materials. Two American think-tanks have recently suggested that Islamabad’s current drive could see the country become the world’s third highest nuclear warheads stockpiler behind only the United States and Russia within the next half-a-decade or decade at maximum!



http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/how-many-nukes-does-north-korea-have/




While that prediction would seem as much of an exaggeration as the once-fabled underwhelming projection that Pakistan would never be able to build the bomb, the motivation to reach an impregnable position in terms of security is unmissable.

Should, then, the campaign be a cause of concern to the world, especially considering that Islamabad is not a signatory to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and would unlikely be anytime in the near future? It’s not as straightforward a determinant as is often projected in the global media in the realm of ‘responsible’ use.

The roots lie, as stated earlier, in the theory of deterrence and the need to cover a larger landmass. The US itself is not a signatory to the CTBT. Understandably, Pakistan has linked its decision to India signing up. Having been bitten before as well as faced with a huge disparity in conventional warfare, Islamabad may be doing more than it needs to — although no-one has ever advanced a figure on how much is enough — but it can hardly be blamed for erring on the side of caution as it were.

As it is, the nuclear nonproliferation regime is hardly an unmitigated success, founded as it is on the pivot of ‘might is right’. If there really was a premium on how much was enough, US and Russia need not have accumulated more than 90 per cent of all nuclear stockpiles that they currently boast — despite the agreement to dismantle their respective arsenals substantially.

One of the salient features of any debate on Pakistani nuclear capability centres around safety concerns. The hypothesis routinely advanced is about weapons grade material “falling into the wrong hands”— an oblique reference to militants or their supposed sympathisers in the ranks.

This theory belies how Pakistan’s command-and-control regime is viewed by quarters with the most concernand a bit of intelligence to boot —the US Department of State, for instance, dropped a broad hint when it admitted in 2013 that “Pakistan has a professional and dedicated security force that fully understands the importance of nuclear security”. Reportedly, a highly trained force of 30,000 personnel provides the multiple security layers.

In an ideal world, all this would be unnecessary of course — certainly, is a massive waste of resources — but the bare-knuckle reality, sadly, is that security cannot be built on mere notions of goodwill.

The writer is a senior journalist based in Islamabad.

http://timesofoman.com/article/67904/Opinion/Columnist/The-second-strike-capability-is-of-great-importance-for-Pakistan'-as-the-general-consensus-until-now-has-been-that-Islamabad-only-had-a-first-use-option

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The National Interest – Washington, D.C.

OPINION/Feature

Is Turkey Secretly Working on Nuclear Weapons? While the world worries about Iran's nuclear program, could another nation in the Middle East have atomic desires?

By Hans Rühle

September 22, 2015

Some months ago it became known that the German Intelligence Service (Bundesnachrichtendienst - BND) was spying on Turkey. Turkey's political leadership was none too happy. Yet the BND has good reasons to keep a watchful eye on Ankara. It is not only the crises in Iraq and Syria, drug-smuggling, people-trafficking and the activities of the PKK that make Turkey a legitimate target for German intelligence. For quite some time, evidence is mounting that Ankara is trying to acquire nuclear weapons.









Over the past two decades, discussions within the nuclear community about emerging nuclear powers always centred on the "usual suspects": Iran, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Egypt, Japan, South Korea and Turkey. Not surprisingly, opinions as to the likelihood of a military nuclear program differed. In the case of Iran, for example, the evidence appeared solid. By contrast, the case of Turkey was built on vague indications.

This list of likely nuclear aspirants has not changed since, yet the likelihood of a Turkish nuclear weapons program has increased dramatically. Simply put: the Western intelligence community now largely agrees that Turkey is working both on nuclear weapon systems and on their means of delivery. Iran is the model to emulate. Consequently, Turkey has started a large-scale civilian nuclear program, justified by the country's urgent energy needs. In 2011, Turkey concluded a $20bn contract with the Russian company ROSATOM on a large reactor complex. Two years later, a similar agreement was concluded with a Japanese-French consortium, this time over $22bn. President Erdogan also announced yet another power plant, to be built entirely by indigenous personnel.

So far, so good, one might say. After all, nuclear energy seems like a sensible option to at least partially meet Turkey's demand for affordable energy. However, a thorough analysis of the contracts reveals that these projects are not just about improving Turkey's energy supply. Turkey has also consciously opened the door to a military nuclear option.

Proposals for constructing a light-water reactor usually consist not just of a commitment to build the plant according to agreed specifications and timelines, but also commitments to run the project for sixty years, to provide the required low enriched uranium and to take back the spent fuel rods. Such offers were put forward by both Rosatom and the Japanese-French consortium. However, in both cases, Turkey insisted that the deal would neither include the provision of uranium nor the return of the spent fuel rods. Ankara wanted to deal with this matter separately at a later stage. Turkey never provided an explanation for this decision. However, the intention behind this unusual maneuvering is not difficult to fathom. Turkey wants to maintain the option to run the reactors with its own low enriched uranium and to reprocess the spent fuel rods itself. This, in turn, means that Turkey intends to enrich uranium, at least to a low level.

And there is more. The option to provide low enriched uranium to currently eight agreed reactors—Turkey is planning twenty-three projects in total—indicates the scope of Turkey’s envisioned enrichment effort. The path that Turkey wants to take is clear: to follow in Iran’s footsteps. According to President Rouhani, Iran wants to build sixteen reactors by 2030, which are supposed to be powered by indigenously enriched uranium, although much of this low enriched uranium is earmarked for high enrichment and thus for the production of weapons-grade fuel. Of course, Turkey vehemently denies any intention to enrich uranium. However, Turkey has declared on many occasions that it will always insist on its “rights” deriving from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and that it regards enrichment for peaceful use as perfectly legal. That the Turkish government is at pains to justify its rejection of an external supply of low enriched uranium while not admitting a national interest in enrichment was illustrated by a statement made by the Turkish Minister for Energy, Taner Yildiz, in January 2014. Yildiz argued that the refusal to contractually settle the uranium supply with the aforementioned companies was due to Turkey’s desire to understand the full nuclear fuel cycle. Not only does Yildiz’ explanation appear weak; Turkey’s declaratory nuclear policy also seems to follow the path taken by Iran: one only admits what in light of the facts can no longer be denied.

Turkey’s motives for rejecting the continuous uranium supply by its Russian and Japanese-French business partners may appear dubious; its rejection to return the spent fuel rods to the supplying countries is outright disastrous, as it allows for only one conclusion: Turkey is bent on producing plutonium for making weapons. While reprocessing would indeed allow the reuse of the spent uranium, such an option is merely theoretical, since fuel rods made from reprocessed material are far more expensive than those made from “new” uranium. It is for this reason that reprocessing of spent uranium is hardly being conducted anymore.

With its rejection to return the spent fuel rods, Turkey is embarking on the pathway to the bomb. The common counterargument, according to which the separation of the “dirty” plutonium would require a sophisticated reprocessing plant that currently does not exist in Turkey, remains unconvincing. Studies have shown that such a






plant can be built within half a year and would be the size of a regular office building. Moreover, the widespread belief that in order to build a nuclear weapon, one requires weapons-grade plutonium with an impurity level of at most 7 percent, is long obsolete. Already in 1945, General Groves, the leader of the “Manhattan Project,” noted that due to the shortage of pure plutonium, the United States would soon be forced to use material with an impurity level of up to 20 percent. In 1962, the United States detonated a plutonium bomb in Nevada that had an impurity level of 23 percent. Finally, if the fuel rods of a light water reactor do not remain inside the reactor for several years, which is the economically viable option, but are removed after only six to twelve months, one ends up with weapons-grade plutonium. The Iranian reactor Bushehr offers a telling example. If the reactor were powered down after eight months and the fuel rods removed, Iran would own 150 kilogrammes of plutonium with an impurity level of only 10 percent—the equivalent of twenty-five Nagasaki-category bombs. In short, the weaponization of plutonium has many facets.

The assumption that Turkey is aiming for nuclear weapons is also supported by the country’s activities towards creating the entire nuclear fuel cycle. As has been revealed by a well-connected information service, German intelligence reported that as far back as May 2010, Prime Minister Erdogan had demanded to secretly start preparing for the construction of sites to enrich uranium. Accordingly, Turkey has started to produce Yellowcake, a chemically compressed uranium ore. Yellowcake is converted to gas, which is then enriched in centrifuges. To date, nothing is publicly known about a conversion plant in Turkey, yet according to the BND, Turkey is already in possession of enriched uranium originating from a former Soviet republic and smuggled via Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina with the help of the Mafia. It would not come as a surprise if Turkey already had centrifuges to enrich uranium. After all, Turkey was involved in the activities of Pakistani nuclear smuggler Abdul Qadeer Khan, who between 1987 and 2002 sold thousands of centrifuges to Iran, North Korea and Libya. The electronics of these centrifuges came from Turkey. Khan had even contemplated moving his entire illegal production capacity of centrifuges to Turkey. In 1998, then Pakistani prime minister Nawaz Sharif offered Turkey a “nuclear partnership” on nuclear research. Moreover, there is still an organic partnership between both countries dating back to Turkey’s support for Pakistan’s nuclear program. Back then, many of the components that Pakistan could not acquire openly were shipped via Turkey to Pakistan. With this backdrop, it does not come as a surprise when intelligence services report that to this day there is a dynamic scientific exchange between both countries.

The question of whether Turkey already has centrifuges and where they may have come from can probably be answered without the recourse to any revelations by intelligence services. At the same time, this might help solve one of the last enigmas of the history of nuclear proliferation: the search for the “fourth customer” of A.Q. Khan. In mid-2003, a shipment of centrifuge parts and tools intended for Libya “disappeared” during a journey from Malaysia via Dubai to Tripoli. It had been ordered—and probably already paid for—by President Gaddafi as part of a major deal on 10,000 centrifuges intended to turn Libya into a nuclear power. The sender of the shipment was A.Q. Khan, who had ordered a company in Malaysia to buy the components from all over the world and ship them to Libya.

Although the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) tried for years to solve that case, what happened to this shipment could never be determined. Still, the IAEA could not simply drop that case, since the disappearance of this shipment could only mean one thing: in addition to the well-known three customers of A.Q. Khan, there must have been yet another. Accordingly, many experts refer to a mysterious “fourth customer.”

The enigma about the “fourth customer,” who appears to work on a nuclear option with utmost secrecy, has never been solved, even though a resolution appears to become ever more urgent. If one compares Pakistan’s production volumes with the production that Khan sold to his three customers beyond Pakistan’s own national needs, one finds considerable discrepancies. In other words, the “fourth customer” has received much more from Khan than just the one shipment originally intended for Libya. Khan, however, remains silent. Considering that, according to intelligence sources, Turkey is in possession of a considerable number of centrifuges of unknown origin, and considering that Khan, shortly before he was put under house arrest, had travelled to Turkey, the conclusion that Turkey is the fourth customer does not appear far-fetched.







Yet this may only be one part of the story. Khan not only delivered centrifuges to his customers, he also supplied them with blueprints for the design of nuclear weapons. The CIA uncovered such plans in Libya in 2003, which had been kept in a department store plastic bag. And in the course of investigating Saddam Hussein’s nuclear activities, the IAEA found a one-page document in 1998 that turned out to be a comprehensive offer by Khan to turn Iraq into a nuclear-armed power within three years, for the price of 150 million dollars. This offer explicitly referred to providing Iraq with all necessary components and blueprints for making nuclear weapons.

If Turkey had indeed been the “fourth customer” of the Pakistani nuclear smuggler, one must assume that the country is now in possession of all documentation necessary to build a bomb. And even if Turkey had not been the fourth customer, one must assume that, given the long cooperation on the production of centrifuges, Khan did instruct his preferred partner not just in how to use centrifuges, but also in weaponization.

Given the ambiguities surrounding the level of nuclear expertise of Turkish scientists, it remains difficult to offer clear-cut facts about the current state of Turkey’s nuclear activities. What appears worrying, however, are statements from intelligence circles about an advanced nuclear program. According to some sources, Israeli prime minister Netanyahu informed then Greek prime minister Papandreou on March 15, 2010 that Turkey could become a nuclear power any time it wanted to.

Another indirect piece of evidence for the existence of a Turkish nuclear-weapons program is Ankara’s missile program. For a long time, Turkey appeared content with developing short-range missiles with a range of up to 150 km. However, over the past years, various public statements indicate a change of course. Much publicity was given to a December 2011 statement by President Erdogan, in particular his demand to the Turkish defence industry to develop long-range missiles. While Turkish media interpreted Erdogan’s statement as a plea for intercontinental ballistic missiles, it remained unclear whether the president was really thinking in these terms. However, two months later, Turkey appears to have started developing a medium-range missile with a range of 2500 km. In 2012, Turkey tested a missile with a range of 1500 km, and it also became known that the missile with a range of 2500 km would be operational by 2015.

Even if Turkey will not be able to keep these deadlines, its intention to develop medium-range missiles is clear. This raises the question as to the strategic rationale of such weapons. The answer is fairly simple: Medium-range missiles only make sense with a nuclear payload. Thus, Turkey’s development of medium- or long-range missiles can only be explained in the context of a nuclear-weapons program. In a nutshell, Turkey’s desire to build missiles with longer ranges is a strong piece of evidence for the existence of a nuclear program.

But what are the views of Turkey’s political leadership on this issue? There are, of course, no public statements arguing the case for a national nuclear option. However, some statements can be interpreted as conditioned statements of intent. In August 2011, Turkey’s ambassador to the United States, Namik Tan, said: “We cannot tolerate that Iran obtains nuclear weapons.” This position was made more concrete two years later by President Abdullah Gül. In an interview with the journal Foreign Affairs, Gül said that “Turkey will not allow that a neighbouring country has weapons that Turkey itself does not have.” Since it should be clear by now to Turkish politicians that Iran, irrespective of the deal with the P5+1, will continue to pursue a nuclear program, there is no point anymore in conditioning one’s own nuclear work. Domestic hurdles appear low: In a 2012 poll, 54 percent of the 1500 people interviewed were in favor or Turkish nuclear weapons if Iran went nuclear.

Given these developments, it becomes clear why Turkey is a legitimate target for German intelligence. A NATO ally who appears to increasingly envision its own role as that of a nuclear-armed regional heavyweight is a development of tremendous importance that Germany cannot afford to ignore. Given Erdogan’s vision of Turkey as a self-confident, assertive and potentially independent regional leader in the Middle East, and given the






existence of an established (Israel) and an emerging nuclear power (Iran), Turkey has no real alternative but to acquire nuclear arms as well. If Turkey does not opt for nuclear weapons, it will remain second class—a position that Erdogan cannot and will not accept.

Hans Rühle is a former Head of the Planning Staff in the German Ministry of Defense. He publishes frequently on security and defense matters.

Editor’s Note: This is the modified version of an article that was first published in the German newspaper “Welt am Sonntag"

http://www.nationalinterest.org/feature/turkey-secretly-working-nuclear-weapons-13898?page=show

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Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) – Canberra, Australia

OPINION/The Strategist

Has Russia Violated the INF Treaty? By Rod Lyon

25 September 2015

Since 2013, when rumors first began to circulate in the U.S. media that Russia might have violated the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, analysts have been trying to clarify the nature of the breach and identify the particular missile system involved. To date this has proved an exercise as difficult as the fabled hunting of the snark. Over two years later, and notwithstanding two formal ‘findings’ by the US in its annual compliance reports that Russia is in violation of the treaty, both arms control specialists and the broader public remain mystified about what is supposed to have happened. In this post, I want to explore what we know. And let me warn readers in advance that we don’t know much.

Early reports seemed to suggest that the Russians were working on a new intermediate-range ballistic missile, which they had—apparently—cunningly disguised as an intercontinental ballistic missile. In reality, that was never much of a claim. ICBMs are already caught and limited by the START treaty. And as Stephen Pifer of Brookings noted back in July 2013, it’s not a violation of the INF treaty for a signatory to test a strategic-range ballistic missile system at a shorter range: weapons are defined by their maximum range. Still, the story grew that Russia was violating the INF treaty through its development and testing of the RS-26 ballistic missile.

In late January 2014, that story was overtaken by a second: Michael Gordon reported in the New York Times that concern centered upon the testing of a new ground-launched cruise missile and that earlier speculation about an ICBM flown to shorter-range had caused analysts to fixate upon the wrong system. The hunt began anew—for a Russian cruise missile system that might fit the bill. Towards the end of April 2014, Jeffrey Lewis produced a column in Foreign Policy that examined the possibility Russia might be in violation of the INF treaty either through its RS-26 ‘intermediate-range ICBM’ (to use Lewis’ phraseology) or through its R500, a cruise missile devised for the Iskander weapon system. Part of the problem, Lewis observed, lay in trying to define the range of a missile that could easily use a quarter of its flight-time zigzagging from side to side.

On July 29, 2014, the U.S. State Department noted publicly in its annual report on arms control compliance that the U.S. believed Russia was in violation of the INF treaty, specifically the provisions prohibiting possession, production or flight-testing of a ground-launched cruise missile with a range capability of 500-5,500 kilometers, or the possession or production of launchers of such missiles.

On July 30, 2014, in a piece for the Federation of American Scientists, Hans Kristensen covered the finding, pondering why it had taken so long to call as a violation a system first tested in 2007. He believed the culprit was



http://www.nationalinterest.org/feature/turkey-secretly-working-nuclear-weapons-13898?page=show





the R500 cruise missile. An analysis for CSIS in October 2014 by Paul Schwartz identified the concerns about the RS-26, but focused primarily upon the R500 as the weapon most likely to be behind the violation.

The State Department’s 2015 annual report on compliance, issued on June 5, noted that Russia continued to be in violation of the INF treaty. The report included a rather dry section on compliance analysis which seemed to imply that the violation related to flight-testing of a cruise missile from a land-based launcher that was not ‘fixed’, ‘used solely for test purposes’ and ‘distinguishable’ from GLCM launchers. A piece by Pavel Podvig published in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists on June 22, 2015 started to home in on the possibility of a flight-test violation in relation to a cruise missile typically not deployed in a land-based mode. Podvig believed a long-range submarine-launched cruise missile had been tested without due regard to launcher type.

Subsequently, on June 23, Rose Gottemoeller’s Interfax interview carried a few more clues. The U.S. had been discussing this issue with Russia since May 2013, she said. Asked for specifics about the alleged violation, Gottemoeller said the R500 was not the missile involved. Nor was the RS-26. She said at issue was a ground-launched cruise missile with a range of 500-5,500Km and the U.S. government was confident that Russia knew which missile was meant.

Gottemoeller’s interview has not entirely stopped analysts from arguing the case against the RS-26 and R500—see here and here for examples. But on July 1, 2015, following the Gottemoeller interview, a blogger on the Nuclear Diner rehearsed the Podvig logic as now offering the most plausible case. Jeffrey Lewis at Arms Control Wonk seems to be headed down a similar track, posting a piece by Nikolai Sokov on Russian cruise missiles. Sokov believed that the allegation centered upon a land-based test of a sea-launched cruise missile, the SS-N-30A, known as the Kalibr.

While some might wonder about the utility of the INF treaty—given it doesn’t constrain sea-launched or air-launched intermediate-range missiles—the compliance of signatories is an important issue in its own right. In retrospect, the case against Russia has been blurred by Washington’s unwillingness to provide greater initial detail of the alleged violation. Even now, it’s not clear what actually occurred. We might finally be gaining a better understanding of the problem. But arms control shouldn’t be a guessing game.

Rod Lyon is a senior fellow at ASPI and an adjunct senior research fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute.

http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/has-russia-violated-the-inf-treaty/

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ABOUT THE USAF CUWS

The USAF Counterproliferation Center was established in 1998 at the direction of the Chief of Staff of the Air Force. Located at Maxwell AFB, this Center capitalizes on the resident expertise of Air University, while extending its reach far beyond - and influences a wide audience of leaders and policy makers. A memorandum of agreement between the Air Staff Director for Nuclear and Counterproliferation (then AF/XON), now AF/A5XP) and Air War College Commandant established the initial manpower and responsibilities of the Center. This included integrating counterproliferation awareness into the curriculum and ongoing research at the Air University; establishing an information repository to promote research on counterproliferation and nonproliferation issues; and directing research on the various topics associated with counterproliferation and nonproliferation .

The Secretary of Defense's Task Force on Nuclear Weapons Management released a report in 2008 that recommended "Air Force personnel connected to the nuclear mission be required to take a professional military education (PME) course on national, defense, and Air Force concepts for deterrence and defense." As a result, the Air Force Nuclear Weapons Center, in coordination with the AF/A10 and Air Force Global Strike Command, established a series of courses at Kirtland AFB to



http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/has-russia-violated-the-inf-treaty/




provide continuing education through the careers of those Air Force personnel working in or supporting the nuclear enterprise. This mission was transferred to the Counterproliferation Center in 2012, broadening its mandate to providing education and research to not just countering WMD but also nuclear deterrence.

In February 2014, the Center’s name was changed to the Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies to reflect its broad coverage of unconventional weapons issues, both offensive and defensive, across the six joint operating concepts (deterrence operations, cooperative security, major combat operations, irregular warfare, stability operations, and homeland security). The term “unconventional weapons,” currently defined as nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, also includes the improvised use of chemical, biological, and radiological hazards.

The CUWS's military insignia displays the symbols of nuclear, biological, and chemical hazards. The arrows above the hazards represent the four aspects of counterproliferation - counterforce, active defense, passive defense, and consequence management.



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