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Transcript of CENTCOM Update
CENTCOM UpdateCenter for a New American Security
GEN David H. Petraeus11 June 2009
2
Agenda
• CENTCOM Strategic Approach• Three Major Challenge Areas• Understanding the Surge• Counterinsurgency Guidelines• Anaconda Strategy versus Al Qaeda in Iraq• Security Trends in Iraq• Afghanistan Security Trends• Situation in Pakistan• Full Spectrum Operations• Battle of Sadr City• Questions
3
CENTCOM Strategic Approach
Prevent Proliferation
ProtectTrade Routes
Deter Aggression
Counter Piracy
Defeat Extremist Networks
Enable Partners
Enable Partners
Enable Partners
Build Multi-lateralPartnerships
Defeat Extremist Networks
Build Multi-lateralPartnerships
Enable Partners
Defeat Extremist Networks
Build Multi-lateralPartnerships
Counter Weapons Smuggling
4
Three Major Challenge Areas
Iraq:• Substantial progress since surge... • Still fragile and reversible...• Less fragile since provincial elections.
Afghanistan:• Situation has deteriorated over last two years…• Must reverse downward trends…• Requires well-resourced, comprehensive counterinsurgency approach.
Pakistan:• Significant challenges from extremists…• Major operations in NWFP and FATA…• Recognition of need to “clear—hold—build” in order to sustain gains.
5
Understanding the Surge In Iraq
Signal of commitment
Increase in US forces
Growth in Iraqi Security Forces
Employment of counterinsurgency concepts
Surge =
6
Counterinsurgency Guidelines
Secure and serve the people
Live among the people
Employ a comprehensive approach
Generate unity of effort
Pursue the enemy relentlessly
Hold cleared areas
Separate “irreconcilables” from “reconcilables”
Promote reconciliation
Conduct conditions-based transitions
Be first with the truth
Live our values
Exercise initiative
Learn and adapt
7
Anaconda Strategy versus Al Qaeda in Iraq
Ansaral Sunna
OtherGroups
Al Qaeda in Iraq
AQI Needs
Ideology
Weapons
MoneyForeignFighters
SafeHavens
PopularSupport
Commandand Control
ConventionalForce Ops
Counter-TerroristForce Ops
Iraqi Conventional& Special Force Ops
Sons of Iraq
PoliticalReconciliation(Laws/policies)
ReligiousEngagement
InformationOperations
Jobs Programs
Services
Internet
Armed Unmanned Aerial VehiclesIntel, Surveillance& Recon PlatformsIntel Fusion
Education
Work withSource Countries
Border Ports of EntryImprovements
AQ Senior LeaderGuidance
TribalAwakenings
Interagency
DetaineeReleases
Strategic Communications
SyriaEngagement
Non-kinetics
DetaineeOps
Kinetics
Intelligence
Politics
Counterinsurgencyin Detention Facilities
Counter Ethno-Sectarian Pressures
8
0
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09-J
an-0
420
-Feb
-04
02-A
pr-0
414
-May
-04
25-J
un-0
406
-Aug
-04
17-S
ep-0
429
-Oct
-04
10-D
ec-0
421
-Jan
-05
04-M
ar-0
515
-Apr
-05
27-M
ay-0
508
-Jul
-05
19-A
ug-0
530
-Sep
-05
11-N
ov-0
523
-Dec
-05
03-F
eb-0
617
-Mar
-06
28-A
pr-0
609
-Jun
-06
21-J
ul-0
601
-Sep
-06
13-O
ct-0
624
-Nov
-06
05-J
an-0
716
-Feb
-07
30-M
ar-0
711
-May
-07
22-J
un-0
703
-Aug
-07
14-S
ep-0
726
-Oct
-07
07-D
ec-0
718
-Jan
-08
29-F
eb-0
811
-Apr
-08
23-M
ay-0
804
-Jul
-08
15-A
ug-0
826
-Sep
-08
07-N
ov-0
819
-Dec
-08
30-J
an-0
913
-Mar
-09
24-A
pr-0
905
-Jun
-09
Attacks Against Iraqi Infrastructure and Government OrganizationsBombs (IEDs and Mines), Both Found and ExplodedSniper, Ambush, Grenade, and Other Small Arms AttacksMortar, Rocket, and Surface to Air Attacks
Militia Uprising and First Fallujah
Baghdad Security Plan,15 February 2007
Ramadan16OCT-14NOV04
5OCT-4NOV0524SEP-23OCT0613SEP-13OCT071 SEP-29SEP08
Samarra mosque bombing,
22 February 2006
Parliamentary elections,
15 December 2005
Iraqi elections,30 January 2005 Basrah and Sadr
City Operations,25 March 2008
Surge of Offensives
Second Fallujah
Battle of Najaf Constitutional
referendum,15 October 2005
Diyala Operations
Mother of Two Springs II
15 Oct 2008
Security Incidents in Iraq
Source: SIGACTS (CF reports) as of 06-Jun-09.
Ramadan18 OCT – 14 NOV 04
5 OCT – 4 NOV 0524 SEP – 23 OCT 0613 SEP – 13 OCT 071 SEP – 28 SEP 08
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
9
Violent Civilian Deaths
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000Ja
n-06
Feb-
06M
ar-0
6A
pr-0
6M
ay-0
6Ju
n-06
Jul-0
6A
ug-0
6Se
p-06
Oct
-06
Nov
-06
Dec
-06
Jan-
07Fe
b-07
Mar
-07
Apr
-07
May
-07
Jun-
07Ju
l-07
Aug
-07
Sep-
07O
ct-0
7N
ov-0
7D
ec-0
7Ja
n-08
Feb-
08M
ar-0
8A
pr-0
8M
ay-0
8Ju
n-08
Jul-0
8A
ug-0
8Se
p-08
Oct
-08
Nov
-08
Dec
-08
Jan-
09Fe
b-09
Mar
-09
Apr
-09
May
-09
Iraqi and Coalition DataCoalition Data
Sources: SIGACTS III Coalition and Iraqi reports as of 06-Jun-09.
10
High Profile Attacks (Explosions)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140M
ay-0
6Ju
n-06
Jul-0
6A
ug-0
6Se
p-06
Oct
-06
Nov
-06
Dec
-06
Jan-
07Fe
b-07
Mar
-07
Apr
-07
May
-07
Jun-
07Ju
l- 07
Aug
-07
Sep-
07O
ct-0
7N
ov-0
7D
ec-0
7Ja
n-08
Feb-
08M
ar-0
8A
pr-0
8M
ay-0
8Ju
n-08
Jul-0
8A
ug-0
8Se
p-08
Oct
-08
Nov
-08
Dec
-08
Jan-
09Fe
b-09
Mar
-09
Apr
-09
May
-09
TotalCar BombsSuicide Car BombsSuicide Vests
Source: SIGACTS (CF reports) as of 06-Jun-09.
11
Al Qaeda in Iraq and Sunni Insurgents
Winter 2006-2007 Winter 2008-2009
Baghdad Baghdad
12Sources: Afghanistan SIGACTS. Info Cutoff: 3 Jun. Retrieved through WEBTAS on 8-JUN-09
Security Incidents in Afghanistan
2008 20092007200620052004
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jan-
04Fe
b-04
Mar
-04
Apr
-04
May
-04
Jun-
04Ju
l-04
Aug
-04
Sep-
04O
ct-0
4N
ov-0
4D
ec-0
4Ja
n-05
Feb-
05M
ar-0
5A
pr-0
5M
ay-0
5Ju
n-05
Jul-0
5A
ug-0
5Se
p-05
Oct
-05
Nov
-05
Dec
-05
Jan-
06Fe
b-06
Mar
-06
Apr
-06
May
-06
Jun-
06Ju
l-06
Aug
-06
Sep-
06O
ct-0
6N
ov-0
6D
ec-0
6Ja
n-07
Feb-
07M
ar-0
7A
pr-0
7M
ay-0
7Ju
n-07
Jul-0
7A
ug-0
7Se
p-07
Oct
-07
Nov
-07
Dec
-07
Jan-
08Fe
b-08
Mar
-08
Apr
-08
May
-08
Jun-
08Ju
l-08
Aug
-08
Sep-
08O
ct-0
8N
ov-0
8D
ec-0
8Ja
n-09
Feb-
09M
ar-0
9A
pr-0
9M
ay-0
9
Presidential Elections
October 04
Parliamentary Elections
18 September 05
Transfer ofAuthority to ISAF
31 July 2006
Serena Hotel Attack14 January 2008
Victory Day Attack
27 April 08
Sar-e Poza Prison Break13 June 2008
Attacks Against Afghanistan Infrastructure and Government OrganizationsBombs (IED and Mines), Both Found and ExplodedAmbush, grenade, RPG, and Other Small Arms AttacksMortar, Rocket, and Surface to Air Attacks
Ramadan18 OCT – 14 NOV 04
5 OCT – 4 NOV 0524 SEP – 23 OCT 0613 SEP – 13 OCT 071 SEP – 28 SEP 08
13
Afghanistan Security Incidents: 2008
13
14
TF HELMAND
RC W (HERAT)
(-)
RC E (BAGRAM)
X
XX
TF ORUZGAN
TF KANDAHAR
III
(-)X RC N (MAZARI SHARIF)
X
X
II
TF ZABOLII
TF SPARTANX
TF WHITE EAGLE
TF Tigre
RC S (KANDAHAR)
XX
III
1 COMBAT AVIATION BRIGADE (Kandahar, Qalat, Tarin Kowt)
1
Current Dispositionand Planned Additional US Forces
2
2 MARINE EXPEDITIONARY BRIGADE (Bastion, Garmsir, Eastern Farah)
TF CURRAHEE
TF DUKE
X
X
XXXX
XRC C (KABUL)
HQ ISAF/USFOR-A
4 AIRBORNE BRIGADE COMBAT TEAM + ADVISORS
3 STRYKER BRIGADE COMBAT TEAM (Spin Boldak, Qalat, Shah Wali Kot, Maywand)
34
Legend
X
X In Theater at Start of 2009Additional Forces
X
XX
X X4/82
CSTC-A
US Forces in Afghanistan
48th
15
Situation in Pakistan
AFGHANISTAN
Kabul
200 km
1000
Bannu
FC400km
Thal
Peshawar
XXXHQ
Miram Shah
Wana
FC
Khar
FC
MingoraKhwazakhela
Frontier Corps Wing(s)
FCRegular Army
Ongoing or Recent Operations
Kohat
KohatHangu
X
Jandola
Kalam
BunerLower
Dir
Swat
Dera Ismail Khan
Islamabad
XXXX
XX
XX
FC
FC
FC
FC
FC
FC
FC
FC
X
XX
AFGHANISTAN
Kabul
200 km
1000
Bannu
FC400km
Thal
Peshawar
XXXHQ
Miram Shah
Wana
FC
Khar
FC
MingoraKhwazakhela
Frontier Corps Wing(s)
FCRegular Army
Ongoing or Recent Operations
Kohat
KohatHangu
XX
Jandola
Kalam
BunerLower
Dir
Swat
Dera Ismail Khan
Islamabad
XXXXXXXX
XXXX
XXXX
FCFC
FCFC
FCFC
FCFC
FCFC
FCFC
FCFC
FCFC
XX
XXXX
16
SPECTRUM OF CONFLICTIncreasing ViolenceStable Peace
GeneralWarInsurgencyUnstable
Peace
Offense
Defense
Defense
Offense
Defense
Offense Offense
Defense
FULL SPECTRUM OPERATIONS
OPERATIONAL THEMES
FM 3-0: Full Spectrum Operations
17
ISF ISF
RAVEN
X
3/4 ID
RAVEN RAVEN
The Battle of Sadr City: March-April 2008
GMLRSSOF
Tact
ical
Ope
ratio
nal
S
trat
egic
2 PREDATORS
JSTARS
GLOBAL HAWK
EP-3/EPX
U2
National
Other Assets: Other Government Agencies, SIGINT Elements, Deployable Ground Station, Sniper Teams, SOF ISR, Phased Array Radar Pods on CAS
SOF ISR
COUNTERFIRE RADAR
SHADOW SHADOW
AIR WEAPONS TEAM
SHADOW
AEROSTAT
RAID
Green Dart UAV
17
24/7 CLOSE AIR SUPPORT
AIR WEAPONS TEAM
AIR WEAPONS TEAM
AEROSTAT
18
4th of July Reenlistment Ceremony
Questions
20
Yemen, the Gulf of Aden, and the Red Sea
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Jan
-04
Ap
r-0
4
Jul-
04
Oct
-04
Jan
-05
Ap
r-0
5
Jul-
05
Oct
-05
Jan
-06
Ap
r-0
6
Jul-
06
Oct
-06
Jan
-07
Ap
r-0
7
Jul-
07
Oct
-07
Jan
-08
Ap
r-0
8
Jul-
08
Oct
-08
Jan
-09
Ap
r-0
9
Successful Hijackings/Acts of PiracyUnsuccessful Attemps / Other Attacks
Monthly Acts of Piracy off Somali Coast
Source: US Navy Central, through 14 May 09
21
Joint Campaign Plan Design
NEAR TERM LONG TERM(NLT JUL 09)(NLT JUL 08)
INTERMEDIATE TERM
Supporting ActivitiesEngagement for Reconciliation
Capacity BuildingRule of Law Development
Good Governance PromotionStrategic Communications
Lead Conditions-basedtransitionsPartner
Overwatch
PartnerLead
OverwatchOverwatch
SUSTAINABLESECURITY
NATIONAL
Development
Conditions-basedtransitions
ReconciliationLOCALIZEDSECURITY
Lines ofOperation
POLITICAL
SECURITY
ECONOMIC
DIPLOMATIC
POLITICAL
SECURITY
ECONOMIC
DIPLOMATIC
INFO
RM
ATIO
NA
L M
EAN
S
22
DEC 06 APR 07 SEP 07
DensityLeast Most
Ethno-Sectarian Violence in Baghdad
Density plots depict incidents of ethno-sectarian deaths.
75% Shi’a 75% Sunni51% Shi’a / 25% Sunni 51% Sunni / 25% Shi’aSunni, Shi’a, Christian Mixed - Muslim
Shi’a, Christian
MAY 09
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
May
-06
Jun-
06Ju
l-06
Aug-
06Se
p-06
Oct
-06
Nov-
06De
c-06
Jan-
07Fe
b-07
Mar
-07
Apr-0
7M
ay-0
7Ju
n-07
Jul-0
7Au
g-07
Sep-
07O
ct-0
7No
v-07
Dec-
07Ja
n-08
Feb-
08M
ar-0
8Ap
r -08
May
-08
Jun-
08Ju
l-08
Aug-
08Se
p-08
Oct
-08
Nov-
08De
c-08
Jan-
09Fe
b-09
Mar
-09
Apr-0
9M
ay-0
9
Ethno-Sectarian Deaths All of IraqBaghdad Security Districts
Sources: CIOC Trends (CF and Iraqi reports) as of 06-Jun-09; weekly beginning 01-May-06
23
Jaysh al Mahdi and Shi’a Extremists
Winter 2007-2008 Fall 2008
Baghdad
Basra
Baghdad
Basra
24
Infantry, Armor, Special Operations, National Police, and Emergency Response Unit Battalions
Over 81% or 149 of 183 Iraqi Army Combat Battalions are “in the lead” for operations
ISF Combat Battalion Operational Readiness Assessment
Source: Iraqi Assistance Group. As of 20 APR 09.
Current184 Total BNs
2 Years142 Total BNs
1 Year132 Total BNs
Baseline89 Total BNs
ORA = Operational Readiness Assessment
0
50
100
150
200
Jun-
05Ju
l-05
Aug
-05
Sep-
05O
ct-0
5N
ov-0
5D
ec-0
5Ja
n-06
Feb-
06M
ar-0
6A
pr-0
6M
ay-0
6Ju
n-06
Jul-0
6A
ug-0
6Se
p-06
Oct
-06
Nov
-06
Dec
-06
Jan-
07Fe
b-07
Mar
-07
Apr
-07
May
-07
Jun-
07Ju
l-07
Aug
-07
Sep-
07O
ct-0
7N
ov-0
7D
ec-0
7Ja
n-08
Feb-
08M
ar-0
8A
pr-0
8M
ay-0
8Ju
n-08
Jul-0
8A
ug-0
8Se
p-08
Oct
-08
Nov
-08
Dec
-08
Jan-
09Fe
b-09
Mar
-09
Apr
-09
May
-09
April 2006—43% in the lead or 52 of 121 Battalions
ORA 1 ORA 2 ORA 3 ORA 4
3 Years185 Total BNs
25
Lessons Learned: The Strategic COIN Command
Multi-National Force-Iraq is a strategic-level HQ optimized with an arsenal of COIN tools/subordinate commands:•An operational command (MNC-I)•A command to generate, train, and equip indigenous security forces (MNSTC-I)•A reconstruction command (Gulf Region Division, Army Corps of Engineers)•A detention command conducting “COIN inside the wire” and helping with the Iraqi corrections system (TF-134)•A Force Strategic Engagement Cell (FSEC) to facilitate reconciliation with hostile factions and take them off the battlefield, supported by a Strategic Debriefing Element (SDE) to “map” the enemy
•A robust Pol-Mil and Econ staff to reinforce Embassy partners and help execute the Joint Campaign Plan (CJ9)•An element to fight the war of information (IO Task Force) and an element to “be first with the truth” (Strat Comms/Media OpsCenter)
•Fusion cells (joint MNF-I/USEMB elements) for Energy, Medical, and other critical areas•An intel structure to support all of the above (CIOC, DIA Forward Element, etc.)
Fully partnered and in coordination with:•US Embassy and all its interagency elements
•A counterterrorism command (TF-714)•An embedded JIATF that includes a threat financing cell
•The United Nations Mission in Iraq (UNAMI)•An element dedicated to commercial development (“Brinkley Group” – TF Business Stabilization Ops)
COMMNF-I
SCJS
Coordination
MNSTC-IMNC-I GRD JCC-IA
CJ1/4/8
CHAPCOS JASGSJA
CJ6CJ2
CIOC/DFE/SDE
CJ3 CJ9 FSECCJ5
JIATF Threat Financing TFBSO
CT Command(TF-714)
TF-134
UNAMI
Strat Comms/MOC
US Embassy
IOTF
Traditional staff augmented for strategic C2 of a COIN campaign as it evolved in Iraq—Afghanistan HQs will require similar optimization
26
ISAF/USFOR-A Organized for a COIN Campaign
Coordination
Proposed Sections
CSTC-A JCC-IA
J4 J6J2
CIOC
J3/5/7 J1
JIATF
Opnl HQsCT Command
(TF-714)
UNAMA
Strat Comms/MOC
US Embassy
Augmentation of ISAF/USFOR-A HQs would provide Commander, ISAF/USFOR-A and US Ambassador, Kabul with the additional staff tools
necessary to ensure a comprehensive COIN approach.
CDR USFOR-A
CJ5 CJ1/4/8CJ9 CJ2 CJ3
TFBSO
FSEC
Detention
ISAF USFOR-A
Strat CommsAEngDist
Senior Civilian Rep
CN JIATF
Threat Financing
DIA Fwd Elem
Strat Debrief
IO TF
COM ISAF
27
RC-Central Security Incidents
Sources: Afghanistan SIGACTS. Info Cutoff: 3 Jun. Retrieved through WEBTAS on 8-JUN-09
0
5
10
15
20
Jan-
04Fe
b-04
Mar
-04
Apr
-04
May
-04
Jun-
04Ju
l-04
Aug
-04
Sep-
04O
ct-0
4N
ov-0
4D
ec-0
4Ja
n-05
Feb-
05M
ar-0
5A
pr-0
5M
ay-0
5Ju
n-05
Jul-0
5A
ug-0
5Se
p-05
Oct
-05
Nov
-05
Dec
-05
Jan-
06Fe
b-06
Mar
-06
Apr
-06
May
-06
Jun-
06Ju
l-06
Aug
-06
Sep-
06O
ct-0
6N
ov-0
6D
ec-0
6Ja
n-07
Feb-
07M
ar-0
7A
pr-0
7M
ay-0
7Ju
n-07
Jul-0
7A
ug-0
7Se
p-07
Oct
-07
Nov
-07
Dec
-07
Jan-
08Fe
b-08
Mar
-08
Apr
-08
May
-08
Jun-
08Ju
l-08
Aug
-08
Sep-
08O
ct-0
8N
ov-0
8D
ec-0
8Ja
n-09
Feb-
09M
ar-0
9A
pr-0
9M
ay-0
9
Attacks Against Afghanistan Infrastructure and Government OrganizationsBombs (IED and Mines), Both Found and ExplodedAmbush, grenade, RPG, and Other Small Arms AttacksMortar, Rocket, and Surface to Air Attacks
28
RC-East Security Incidents
Sources: Afghanistan SIGACTS. Info Cutoff: 3 Jun. Retrieved through WEBTAS on 8-JUN-09
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
Jan-
04Fe
b-04
Mar
-04
Apr
-04
May
-04
Jun-
04Ju
l-04
Aug
-04
Sep-
04O
ct-0
4N
ov-0
4D
ec-0
4Ja
n-05
Feb-
05M
ar-0
5A
pr-0
5M
ay-0
5Ju
n-05
Jul-0
5A
ug-0
5Se
p-05
Oct
-05
Nov
-05
Dec
-05
Jan-
06Fe
b-06
Mar
-06
Apr
-06
May
-06
Jun-
06Ju
l-06
Aug
-06
Sep-
06O
ct-0
6N
ov-0
6D
ec-0
6Ja
n-07
Feb-
07M
ar-0
7A
pr-0
7M
ay-0
7Ju
n-07
Jul-0
7A
ug-0
7Se
p-07
Oct
-07
Nov
-07
Dec
-07
Jan-
08Fe
b-08
Mar
-08
Apr
-08
May
-08
Jun-
08Ju
l-08
Aug
-08
Sep-
08O
ct-0
8N
ov-0
8D
ec-0
8Ja
n-09
Feb-
09M
ar-0
9A
pr-0
9M
ay-0
9
Attacks Against Afghanistan Infrastructure and Government OrganizationsBombs (IED and Mines), Both Found and ExplodedAmbush, grenade, RPG, and Other Small Arms AttacksMortar, Rocket, and Surface to Air Attacks
29
RC-South Security Incidents
Sources: Afghanistan SIGACTS. Info Cutoff: 3 Jun. Retrieved through WEBTAS on 8-JUN-09
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
Jan-
04Fe
b-04
Mar
-04
Apr
-04
May
-04
Jun-
04Ju
l-04
Aug
-04
Sep-
04O
ct-0
4N
ov-0
4D
ec-0
4Ja
n-05
Feb-
05M
ar-0
5A
pr-0
5M
ay-0
5Ju
n-05
Jul-0
5A
ug-0
5Se
p-05
Oct
-05
Nov
-05
Dec
-05
Jan-
06Fe
b-06
Mar
-06
Apr
-06
May
-06
Jun-
06Ju
l-06
Aug
-06
Sep-
06O
ct-0
6N
ov-0
6D
ec-0
6Ja
n-07
Feb-
07M
ar-0
7A
pr-0
7M
ay-0
7Ju
n-07
Jul-0
7A
ug-0
7Se
p-07
Oct
-07
Nov
-07
Dec
-07
Jan-
08Fe
b-08
Mar
-08
Apr
-08
May
-08
Jun-
08Ju
l-08
Aug
-08
Sep-
08O
ct-0
8N
ov-0
8D
ec-0
8Ja
n-09
Feb-
09M
ar-0
9A
pr-0
9M
ay-0
9
Attacks Against Afghanistan Infrastructure and Government OrganizationsBombs (IED and Mines), Both Found and ExplodedAmbush, grenade, RPG, and Other Small Arms AttacksMortar, Rocket, and Surface to Air Attacks
30
RC-West Security Incidents
Sources: Afghanistan SIGACTS. Info Cutoff: 3 Jun. Retrieved through WEBTAS on 8-JUN-09
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Jan-
04Fe
b-04
Mar
-04
Apr
-04
May
-04
Jun-
04Ju
l-04
Aug
-04
Sep-
04O
ct-0
4N
ov-0
4D
ec-0
4Ja
n-05
Feb-
05M
ar-0
5A
pr-0
5M
ay-0
5Ju
n-05
Jul-0
5A
ug-0
5Se
p-05
Oct
-05
Nov
-05
Dec
-05
Jan-
06Fe
b-06
Mar
-06
Apr
-06
May
-06
Jun-
06Ju
l-06
Aug
-06
Sep-
06O
ct-0
6N
ov-0
6D
ec-0
6Ja
n-07
Feb-
07M
ar-0
7A
pr-0
7M
ay-0
7Ju
n-07
Jul-0
7A
ug-0
7Se
p-07
Oct
-07
Nov
-07
Dec
-07
Jan-
08Fe
b-08
Mar
-08
Apr
-08
May
-08
Jun-
08Ju
l-08
Aug
-08
Sep-
08O
ct-0
8N
ov-0
8D
ec-0
8Ja
n-09
Feb-
09M
ar-0
9A
pr-0
9M
ay-0
9
Attacks Against Afghanistan Infrastructure and Government OrganizationsBombs (IED and Mines), Both Found and ExplodedAmbush, grenade, RPG, and Other Small Arms AttacksMortar, Rocket, and Surface to Air Attacks
31
RC-North Security Incidents
Sources: Afghanistan SIGACTS. Info Cutoff: 3 Jun. Retrieved through WEBTAS on 8-JUN-09
0
5
10
15
20
Jan-
04Fe
b-04
Mar
-04
Apr
-04
May
-04
Jun-
04Ju
l-04
Aug
-04
Sep-
04O
ct-0
4N
ov-0
4D
ec-0
4Ja
n-05
Feb-
05M
ar-0
5A
pr-0
5M
ay-0
5Ju
n-05
Jul-0
5A
ug-0
5Se
p-05
Oct
-05
Nov
-05
Dec
-05
Jan-
06Fe
b-06
Mar
-06
Apr
-06
May
-06
Jun-
06Ju
l-06
Aug
-06
Sep-
06O
ct-0
6N
ov-0
6D
ec-0
6Ja
n-07
Feb-
07M
ar-0
7A
pr-0
7M
ay-0
7Ju
n-07
Jul-0
7A
ug-0
7Se
p-07
Oct
-07
Nov
-07
Dec
-07
Jan-
08Fe
b-08
Mar
-08
Apr
-08
May
-08
Jun-
08Ju
l-08
Aug
-08
Sep-
08O
ct-0
8N
ov-0
8D
ec-0
8Ja
n-09
Feb-
09M
ar-0
9A
pr-0
9M
ay-0
9
Attacks Against Afghanistan Infrastructure and Government OrganizationsBombs (IED and Mines), Both Found and ExplodedAmbush, grenade, RPG, and Other Small Arms AttacksMortar, Rocket, and Surface to Air Attacks
32
Civilian, ANSF and ISAF Casualties
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Jan-
04
Apr
-04
Jul-0
4
Oct
-04
Jan-
05
Apr
-05
Jul-0
5
Oct
-05
Jan-
06
Apr
-06
Jul-0
6
Oct
-06
Jan-
07
Apr
-07
Jul-0
7
Oct
-07
Jan-
08
Apr
-08
Jul-0
8
Oct
-08
Jan-
09
Apr
-09
Civilian KIAANSF KIAISAF/US KIA
Yearly Totals 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Civilian 125 101 429 534 718 225
ANSF 24 114 335 757 695 340
ISAF 11 29 78 103 249 93
Sources: Afghanistan SIGACTS. Info Cutoff: 20 May. Retrieved through WEBTAS on 25-May-09
33
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-
04Fe
b-04
Mar
-04
Apr
-04
May
-04
Jun-
04Ju
l-04
Aug
-04
Sep-
04O
ct-0
4N
ov-0
4D
ec-0
4Ja
n-05
Feb-
05M
ar-0
5A
pr-0
5M
ay-0
5Ju
n-05
Jul-0
5A
ug-0
5Se
p-05
Oct
-05
Nov
-05
Dec
-05
Jan-
06Fe
b-06
Mar
-06
Apr
-06
May
-06
Jun-
06Ju
l-06
Aug
-06
Sep-
06O
ct-0
6N
ov-0
6D
ec-0
6Ja
n-07
Feb-
07M
ar-0
7A
pr-0
7M
ay-0
7Ju
n-07
Jul-0
7A
ug-0
7Se
p-07
Oct
-07
Nov
-07
Dec
-07
Jan-
08Fe
b-08
Mar
-08
Apr
-08
May
-08
Jun-
08Ju
l-08
Aug
-08
Sep-
08O
ct-0
8N
ov-0
8D
ec-0
8Ja
n-09
Feb-
09M
ar-0
9A
pr-0
9M
ay-0
9
High Profile Attacks (Explosions)
Yearly Totals 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Person Borne 3 10 44 64 74 31
Suicide Vehicle 4 13 79 74 95 22
Vehicle IED 9 11 24 25 42 14
TotalPerson Borne IEDSuicide VehicleVehicle IED
Sources: Afghanistan SIGACTS. Info Cutoff: 20 May. Retrieved through WEBTAS on 25-May-09
34
Pakistan
35
Security Incidents in Pakistan
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Mar
-08
Apr
-08
May
-08
Jun-
08Ju
l-08
Aug
-08
Sep
-08
Oct
-08
Nov
-08
Dec
-08
Jan-
09F
eb-0
9M
ar-0
9A
pr-0
9M
ay-0
9
Attacks Against Infrastructure and Government Organizations IEDs, Mines, Suicide Attacks Small Arms Engagements, RPG, Grenades Indirect Fire Attacks, Mortars, Rocket
PakMil Operationsin Bajaur
Swat PeaceAgreement
PakMil Operations inDir, Buner, and Swat
Source: WebTAS Pakistan SIGACTS as of 03 June 09
36
Situation in Pakistan
AFGHANISTAN
Kabul
200 km
1000
Bannu
x3FC
XX7 HQ
X23
X22
400km
Thalx11FC
x6FC
Peshawar
X26
x7FC
XXX11 HQ
X102
x1FCx1FC
X6
X27
Miram Shah
X327
X117
X116
Wana XX9 HQ
x8FC
x9FCX
73
Khar
x5FC
MingoraKhwazakhela
XX37 HQ
X107
X88
X313
x4FC
Frontier Corps Wing(s)FC
Regular Army
Ongoing or Recent Operations
x2FC
x2FC
Kohat
KohatHangu
XX19 HQ
X54
X28
X1AK
Jandola
Kalam
BunerLower
Dir
Swat
Dera Ismail Khan
AFGHANISTAN
Kabul
200 km
1000 200 km
1000
BannuBannu
x3FC x3x3FC
XX7 HQ
XX7 HQ
X23
X23
X22
X22
400km
Thalx11FC x11x11FC
x6FC x6x6FC
Peshawar
X26
x7FC
X26
X26
x7FC x7x7FC
XXX11 HQ
X102
x1FC
XXX11 HQ
XXX11 HQ
X102
X102
x1FC x1x1FCx1FC x1x1FC
X6
X6
X27
X27
Miram Shah
X327
X327
X117
X117
X116
X116
Wana XX9 HQ
x8FC
XX9 HQ
XX9 HQ
x8FC x8x8FC
x9FC x9x9FCX
73X
73
Khar
x5FC x5x5FC
MingoraMingoraKhwazakhelaKhwazakhela
XX37 HQ
X107
X88
X313
x4FC
XX37 HQ
XX37 HQ
X107
X107
X88
X88
X313
X313
x4FC x4x4FC
Frontier Corps Wing(s)FC
Regular Army
Ongoing or Recent Operations
x2FC x2x2FC
x2FC x2x2FC
Kohat
KohatHangu
XX19 HQ
X54
X28
X1AK
XX19 HQ
XX19 HQ
X54
X54
X28
X28
X1AK
X1AK
Jandola
Kalam
BunerLower
Dir
Swat
Dera Ismail Khan
Islamabad
37
Counterinsurgency Campaign Design
Combat Operations
Civil Security Operations
Essential Services
Governance
Economic Development
Information Operations
Starting Conditions
Atti
tude
of P
opul
ace
End State
Insurgent Insurgent
Neutral or
Passive
Neutral or
Passive
Support Government
Support Government
Whole of Government Approach: An effective counterinsurgency campaign requires a comprehensive and fully integrated use of non-military and military institutions to
defeat the insurgency and address its root causes.
The Engine of Change
GEN David H. Petraeus
3939
Doctrine(Theory)
Combat/ContingencyOperations
Knowledge Management
LeaderDevelopment(Understanding)
CollectiveTraining
(Application)
LessonsLearned
(Feedback)
A Learning Organization(Leaders and Troopers who “get it”)
Engine of Change
40
Pre-9/11:Combat Operations
Today:Full Spectrum Operations
Doctrine(Theory)
Updated Doctrine
2006 Counterinsurgency
Operations (with Marine Corps)
Changes in Doctrine
2006 Army Leadership
“Modern Pentathlete”
2007 Training the
Force
2006 Human Intelligence
Collector Operations
2008 Full Spectrum
Operations
40
41
Pre-9/11:Combat Operations
Lecture-based “What to think”
Now:Full Spectrum Operations
Seminar-based “How to think”
LeaderDevelopment(Understanding)
Leader Development
Initiatives
Counterinsurgency focused curricula
Regional language and culture training
Arabic
Pashto
Contemporary reading lists
To name a few…
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013ACS Slots for Operational Career Field Greater civil schooling
opportunities
Changes in Leader Development
41
42
Pre-9/11:Short, violent force-on
force engagements
Today:Continuous, complex
counterinsurgency operations
CollectiveTraining
(Application)
Training Center
Modifications
Improvised Explosive Devices, car bombs, etc.
Hundreds of native-speaking, role players
Civil affairs essential… and all do it
Looks like Iraq or Afghanistan
Changes in Collective Training
42
43
Pre-9/11:Predominantly hard-copy
publications
Today:Electronic products, virtual communities, and websites
LessonsLearned(Feedback)
Since 2001
• Website averaging 19K “sessions” & 20K documents downloaded per month
• 65 Collection & Analysis Teams deployed since 9/11
• 641 publications (online and print)
• 1,180 requests for information answered in April (broke January’s record of 1,015)
Combat and Counterinsurgency OperationsSustainment OperationsInformation OperationsAdvisor Responsibilities
Full Spectrum products
Changes in Lessons Learned
43
44
Pre-9/11: Today:“Band of Bloggers” Funded virtual
communities
Knowledge Management
Knowledge Management
Tools
Simulations with the “Human Dimension”Language software
and toolsCommand Post
of the FutureBattle Command Knowledge System
Changes in Knowledge Management
44
45
Pre-9/11 Today:Latest equipment & technology, designed for this environment
Rapidly Fielding New Equipment
Vehicles With Better Protection
New Tools for Intelligence Fusion
Changes in Equipping the Force
New Equipment
and Technology
(Tools)
Improved Weapons Systems
IED Defeat Technology
45