Census 2016

Dermot Corcoran

Census Overview

1841-1911: every ten years

1926-1946: every ten years

1951 to-date: every five years with two exceptions:

1976 census cancelled on cost grounds - headcount subsequently taken in 1979

2001 census postponed to 2002 because of foot and mouth disease in

March/April 2001

2016 cost €55m

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A history lesson..

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1672 1841 1861 1881 1901 1926 1946 1956 1966 1979 1986 1996 2006

Millions

First

population

estimates in

1672 1.1m

1821 the

first full

census of

Ireland

1841 ‘Great

Census’ first

modern census

of Ireland 6.5m

The Great Famine

1911 last Census

under British

system of

administration

3.1m

1926 first

census taken in

new

independent

Ireland 3.0m

1956 Census

becomes 5

yearly

2016

Population at

4.76m.

Highest

population

since 1851

Why do we need a Census?

Dynamic nature of population change & migration

No centralised population register

Evidence based policy

EU regulation (every 10 years)

2016 and into the future?

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Need for census – Legislative context

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Ministerial order under Statistics Act 1993 specifying

General nature of the information to be collected

Persons to be covered

Legal obligation on all persons covered to participate

Article 16 of the Constitution

Dáil representation of 20,000-30,000 people per TD

Determined by preceding Census

Every household in the country obliged by law to

complete and return a census form

Two key principles

Confidentiality Officers of Statistics

All aspects of Census cycle

Public confidence

Coverage100%

Credibility

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Census 2016 – The Life Cycle

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Census Day

April 24

2014 2015

Government

decision Designation Recruitment

Field

operationFrom design

2016

Processing

2017

Dissemination

Census 2016 – how it worked

Designate 4,660 enumeration areas

Recruit field staff – 4,660 enumerators + 430 field supervisors etc.

Field operation - deliver / collect every census form by hand

Target is complete enumeration of dwellings, households and persons

Scan, capture, code and process the data

Publish the results

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• Enumeration Areas built on Small Areas

⁻ For Census 2011, criteria for creation based on the number of

households according to GeoDirectory and Census 2006.

⁻ Creation of 4,866 Enumeration Areas with average of 415

GeoDirectory address points

• Methodology tweaked for Census 2016

⁻ Rely more on estimated enumerator pay

⁻ Low growth in construction, only 540 EAs from 2011 needed

to be reconfigured

⁻ Used free add-in tool (called Districting) in ArcGIS

GIS Use: EA Designation

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• Undertaken by CSO directly

• Enumerators maps with red dots for GeoDirectory address points with 4

digit ID number within EA (D.No).

• Using ESRI ArcGIS and maplex to Overcome label overlap

• Output to PDF, QC and print

• Maps for all CSO social surveys done by Census geography section (EU-

SILC, PIACC, QNHS, HBS)

GIS Use: Map production

Census 2006 Map

Census 2016 Map

The Irish address database created in 1998

The postal address of most address points (approx 2.2

million) in the State

The co-ordinates and geographical position of each

building (accurate to 1m, building centre)

Whether a building is commercial, residential or mixed

residential/commercial or has single or multiple addresses

40% of addresses are non-unique

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GeoDirectory

GeoDirectory used to underpin fieldwork in 2016

census

Main purpose was to to spatially reference census 2006 file

Flexible geographical outputs for existing and new administrative boundaries

Comparative analysis at address point level with future censuses

Save costs at Census processing stage

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GeoDirectory use in Census 2016

Processing the data

Processing centre Swords – some 2 million forms

Scan and capture data

45 million scanned pages in 120 days

375,000 pages a day

150 HQ staff involved in repair, coding and cleansing

Quality of forms coming in from the field has a huge impact on processing

Processing will be completed by end of 2016

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Census 2016 – Results and dissemination

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Preliminary results June/July 2016

Publication programme to commence March 2017

Varied dissemination products

Thematic publications

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2 summary publications

Population distribution and internal migration

Age profile

Employment, industry and occupations

Housing

Households and families

Migration and diversity

Travellers, ethnicity and religion

Health, disability and carers

Education and Irish language

Commuting

Report on homelessness

Census 2016

Preliminary Results

14th July 2016

Summary Results

Table A - Change in population 2006-2016

Census Year Population

Actual change

since previous

census

Average annual

percentage

change since

previous

census

2006 4,239,848 291,116 2

2011 4,588,252 348,404 1.6

2016 4,757,976 169,724 0.7

Historic change

Change by county

Overall change 2011 – 2016 +3.7%

Varies widely across the country

Low -1.5%

High +8.1%

Change by ED

Table C - Top 10 Electoral Divisions ordered by population increase, 2011-2016

Electoral Division CountyPopulation

2011

Population

2016Actual change

Percentage

change

1Blanchardstown-

Blakestown Fingal 36,057 38,924 2,867 8.0

2 GlencullenDún Laoghaire-

Rathdown 17,381 19,743 2,362 13.6

3 Lucan-Esker South Dublin 29,820 32,134 2,314 7.8

4 Maynooth Kildare 13,617 15,905 2,288 16.8

5 The Ward Fingal 8,241 10,470 2,229 27.0

6 Tallaght-Springfield South Dublin 9,123 11,068 1,945 21.3

7 Navan Rural Meath 26,657 28,081 1,424 5.3

8Portlaoighise

(Maryborough) Rural Laois 14,676 16,058 1,382 9.4

9 Balbriggan Rural Fingal 15,140 16,479 1,339 8.8

10Blanchardstown-

Abbotstown Fingal 4,870 6,204 1,334 27.4

Components of change

Total change 169,724

Natural increase 198,282

(Births 70,000 / year)

(Deaths 30,000 / year)

= Net migration-28,558

Annual average -5,712

Net migration by county

-6,731

+7,257

+4,380

Population per TD

Electoral (Amendment) (No.7) Act 2013

40 constituencies, 158 TDs

2016 average 30,114

Above constitutional limit of 30,000

25 constituencies above 30,000

Preliminary

No statutory basis, await definitive results

32,299

Population per constituency

Housing

Table F - Housing Stock 2011-2016

State totals 2011 2016Actual

change

%

change

Housing stock 2,003,914 2,022,895 18,981 0.9

Occupied

households1,669,180 1,718,465 49,285 3

Temporarily absent 45,283 44,868 -415 -0.9

Vacant holiday

homes59,395 61,204 1,809 3

Other vacant

dwellings230,056 198,358 -31,698 -13.8

Households and Population

Housing

Table F - Housing Stock 2011-2016

State totals 2011 2016Actual

change

%

change

Housing stock 2,003,914 2,022,895 18,981 0.9

Occupied

households1,669,180 1,718,465 49,285 3

Temporarily absent 45,283 44,868 -415 -0.9

Vacant holiday

homes59,395 61,204 1,809 3

Other vacant

dwellings230,056 198,358 -31,698 -13.8

Vacancy rates 2016

Vacant dwellings 2016

Electronic release

CSO.ie

Interactive mapping

Population by ED, 2011 / 2016 change

Housing

Total housing stock

Holiday homes

Other vacant dwellings

Demographic statistics

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Any questions?