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Varietal Forestry:Technology, Performance, Value
Arkansas Forestry AssociationOctober 5, 2011John Pait
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Topics
• Varietal Forestry Overview• Field Performance • Financial Analysis & Valuation
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CellFor
• Overview: global leader in varietal seedlings for reforestation
• Business Model: Seed technology company serving all timberland owners and managers.
• Company: 100 employees with locations in Victoria BC, Atlanta, Savannah, GA Conway AR, Columbia, SC, Lufkin, TX, Denver, CO
• Structure: Privately held by investors including: ATP, CSFB, BDC, Growth Works, DuPont, and others.
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CellFor’s Global Footprint
British ColumbiaSpruce, Doug Fir
South East USALoblolly, Slash
ChileRadiata
New ZealandRadiata
AustraliaRadiata
South AfricaPatula
> 7,000 varietal lines in trials
Brazil/ArgentinaLoblolly
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Drivers for Productivity Gains
0
50
100
150
200
250
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Establishment period
Vol
ume
at h
arve
st (
tons
/acr
e)
Clonal andbiotechnology
Tree improvement
Weed control
Fertilization
Site preparation
Planting
Natural stand
Adapted from Fox, T.R., E.J. Jokela, and H.L. Allen, 2004
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Power of Genetics Proven in other Agricultural Crops
Open-Pollinated Varieties1866 to 1933
Double-Cross Hybrids1934 to 1955
Single-Cross Hybrids1956 to 2001
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service.
Corn Yields 1866 to 2001
Current phase of conifer genetics
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Genetic Options for Reforestation
• Bulk Orchard Seed by generation of advancement– 20 to 40 improved mother trees– Thousands of male genotypes and pollen contamination– Lowest gain and cost
• Open Pollinated ½ Sib Families by generation– Single improved mother tree – Thousands of male genotypes and pollen contamination– Better gain and slight cost increase
• CMP: mass controlled pollination Full Sib families– Single improved mother and father trees– Thousands of genotypes– Higher gain and higher cost
• Varietals: best single tree from best families– Single genotype– Highest gain and highest cost– Holy Grail of Forest Tree Improvement
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What is Varietal Forestry?
Variety (aka clone, line)– Collection of individuals all with the same
genotype (same DNA)– Methods:
• Tissue culture, rooting, grafting, etc.• No genetic engineering involved
Varietal Forestry– Operational deployment of tested varieties– Reforestation on an operational scale– Usually 1 variety per forest stand– Limited number of varieties deployed
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First Patent Issued for A Tree for Reforestation: Varietal CF L3791
US PP19,447, P3 Pait , et al. November 11, 2008 Loblolly pine tree named‘CF L 3791
US PP19, 793, P3 Pait et al. March 3, 2009 Loblolly pine tree named ‘CF Q7766’
US PP21,973, P3 Pait et al. June 14, 2011Loblolly pine tree named‘CF LP17696’
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CellFor Plantings 2000 – 2010
Over 1,000 Forest Stands in +175 Counties
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CellFor Production Overview
Produce Plantable Germinants
Grow Plantable Germinants into Miniplugs
Grow Miniplugs into Finished Seedlings
CellFor Labs
(BC, Canada)
Contract Nurseries
(Canada & USA)
Process completed in 12 to 18 Months
Contract Nurseries
(USA)
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Germplasm Capture and Testing
Selected Parents
Seeds
Embryo Cultures
A BB C D A B C D
Establishment of statistically designed Field Trials
Frozen Storage of Cultures
Somatic EmbryogenesisProduction of selected variety
Field Trials
Create an elite family and then select the very best individual from that family
Selection of best performing variety
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CellFor’s lab process starts with a green cone and immature seed
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Young embryo resides within the megagametophyte
Zygotic Embryo
Embryonal Cavity
Megagametophyte
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Embryogenic tissue from dissected seed
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Embryogenic tissue is multiplied and cryopreserved for long term storage
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Embryo and Germinant Production
Transfer to GerminationMature Pine Embryos Plantable Germinant
Cryo Preserved Tissue Tissue Initiation Tissue Bulk-up
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Germinants from Somatic Embryos
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Seedlings Ready for Transplant
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Miniplugs Await Transplanting
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Containerized Seedling Nursery
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Bareroot Nursery Crops
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Key Drivers to Varietal Value Creation
• Growth & Productivity• Stand Uniformity & Sawtimber Potential• Disease Resistance• Survival
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Q7766
18 months old
Resource Mgmt. Service
Bolton, NC
Growth
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GROWTH:Q7766: 24 months
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Growth:New CellFor Variety Winning by 47% in CellFor Line Trial
in Argentina at Age 2
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Growth: Q7766 Age 2 North Carolina
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Outstanding Growth: CF O3621 Age 6 R.O. Martin
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Uniformity in 20 Year Old Stand Varietal trial
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Disease ResistanceAge 6 years: Rust Impacts STP
Q3802 0% Stem Rust
OP Family22% Stem Rust
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Rust Average Site Rust-Prone Site
0%2%
7%
33%
Ste
m R
ust (
%)
Varietal Mean Check Mean
Reduced Risk: Disease Resistance is Dramatic
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Uniformity in Varietal Loblolly Pine
UniformityQ3802
Age 5, Alabama 5
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Log Quality
Q3802Small Branches
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CF Q3802
Q3802 showing smaller and less frequent branches resulting in fewer and smaller knots
Check
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Varietal Branch Diameter (Future Knots) is Small & Stable
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1 Very Small2 Small3 Small to Avg.4 Average5 Avg. to Large6 Large7 Very Large
75% score 3or better
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Log Quality:Pulpwood vs SawTimber
7-56 CellFor CF Q380237
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Crown Characteristics Can Be Selected
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Loq QualitySampling for Wood Density Analysis
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Log Quality: Densitometry of Varietals vs Seedlings
O39
71N
3977
L361
5Q
3875
N34
07L3
412
Q33
40Q
3831
N34
55N
3748
L369
1K
3973
N38
52L3
480
L363
5K
3690
Q38
46N
3960
Q34
72L3
642
L359
8Q
3802
Q38
80N
3759
L378
9L0
000
Q00
00O
3621
OP
7056
N35
59N
0000
L326
3Q
3606
L351
9N
3818
Q35
07N
3903
OP
2300
1Q
3469
OP
2206
3
Wood specific gravity at age 5 SE clones and checklots
Spe
cific
gra
vity
0.40
0.42
0.44
0.46
0.48
FS checklotsOP checklotsSE clones
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Clonal height and wood specific gravity
Wood specific gravity age 5
0.41 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.48
Hei
ght a
ge 5
(ft)
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Growth Rate & Wood Density: Independent Traits with Varietals
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Containerized Seedlings & Varietal Seedling Survival
• CellFor varieties are available in bare root or containerized stock types.
• Containers:– Risk Reduction: High survival rates: – Widest Planting Window: October to May– Lower TPA: – Plantability:
• Hand: Consistent seedling size facilitates hand planting
• Machine: Yes
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Operational Survival of Containerized Varietal seedlings VS Bareroot OP seedlings in a droughty year Data from Central Arkansas, 2007
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Survival of Containerized CellFor Variety compared to Bareroot OP seedlings on the same site. North Louisiana 2009
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Operational Survival of Containerized Varietal seedlings VS Bareroot CMP seedlings in a droughty year Data from the Florida Panhandle, 2011
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Operational Survival of Containerized Varietal Seedlings VS Bareroot OP and CMP seedlings Data from Central South Carolina, 2011
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• Fast Growth Rust Free Straight Low Forking Small Limbs Narrow Crowns
Good Wood Density
Only with Varieties can all these value traits be
stacked and exhibited in every tree on every acre planted
CellFor Elite Varieties = Stacked Value Traits
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• Q3802: Age 12 & 70 feet tall• Stacked Traits
• Superior growth• Disease free• Highest log quality & value
Varietals: Combine Traits in One Tree
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Topics
• Varietal Forestry Overview• Field Performance • Financial Analysis & Valuation• Sustainability
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Operational Performance Plots of CellFor Varieties
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Reduced Risk: 7% Average Increased Survival
Average difference 7%; n=66
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Height Advantage of Varieties Increases Year over Year (15 Tests With Repeated Measures)
Average Tree Height (ft) in January 2010 and January 2011
3.5 ft difference
4.1 ft difference
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Average Height Gain 13% Over Improved Genotypes: (%) over comparison genotypes by variety and test
N= 61
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Georgia
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Loblolly Pine Variety O3621 vs. OP 7-56 Jeff Davis Co, GA, Operational Planting, Age 6 Data
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CellFor Varietal Stand vs OP Family Age 6: GA
CellFor 7-56
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CF O3621 vs. OP 7-56 , Tree Volume Age 6 Jeff Davis Co, GA
17%
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CF L3514, O3621 vs. OP 7-56 Check Tree Volume of STP Trees Only, Age 6
Jeff Davis Co, GA
61%63%
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CF O3621 vs. OP 7-56 Tree Volume of STP Trees Only
Age 6 Jeff Davis Co, GA
54%
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CF O3621 vs. Adjacent OP 7-56 Survival, STP and Stem Defects, Age 6
Jeff Davis Co, GA
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CellFor Varietals: High SawTimber Potential
Q3802 OP Family Crop Tree
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Spatial Distribution of Stem Defects in O3621 and Adjacent OP 7-56 PlotJeff Davis Co, GA, Age 6
100 STP tree0 Non-STP tree
O3621 OP 7-56
100 100 100 100 Dead 100 100 100100 100 100 100 Dead 100 100 0100 100 100 100 Dead 100 0 Dead100 100 100 100 0 100 0 Dead100 100 100 100 0 Dead 100 Dead100 100 100 100 100 100 0 100100 100 100 100 0 100 100 100100 100 100 100 100 100 100 0100 100 100 100 0 100 100 100100 100 Dead 100 0 0 100 100100 100 0 100 100 100 Dead 100100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100100 100 100 100 100 0 100 1000 100 100 100 0 100 Dead 100
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100100 100 Dead 100 100
100 0 1001000
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Spatial Distribution of Stem Defects in OP 7-56 PlotsJeff Davis Co, GA, Age 6
0 100 100 0 Dead 100 100 1000 100 100 100 Dead 100 100 00 100 0 100 Dead 100 0 Dead
100 Dead 100 100 0 100 0 Dead100 100 0 0 0 Dead 100 Dead100 100 100 100 100 100 0 100100 0 Dead 0 0 100 100 100100 100 100 100 100 100 100 0100 100 0 100 0 100 100 100100 100 0 100 0 0 100 100100 0 0 100 100 100 Dead 100100 0 Dead 0 100 100 100 1000 100 100 0 100 0 100 1000 0 100 0 0 100 Dead 100
100 100 100 0 100 100 100 100100 100 0 100 Dead 100 100
100 0 1001000
100 STP tree0 Non-STP tree
Plot 1 Plot 2
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O3621 and Adjacent OP 7-56 Plot Before and After Hypothetical Thinning
Thinning OP 7-56 plot: all non-STP trees resulting in 314 TPAThinning O3621 plot: all non-STP and the smallest trees resulting in 314 TPA
O3621 OP 7-56
100 100 100 100 Dead 100 100 100100 100 100 100 Dead 100 100 0100 100 100 100 Dead 100 0 Dead100 100 100 100 0 100 0 Dead100 100 100 100 0 Dead 100 Dead100 100 100 100 100 100 0 100100 100 100 100 0 100 100 100100 100 100 100 100 100 100 0100 100 100 100 0 100 100 100100 100 Dead 100 0 0 100 100100 100 0 100 100 100 Dead 100100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100100 100 100 100 100 0 100 1000 100 100 100 0 100 Dead 100
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100100 100 Dead 100 100
100 0 1001000
100 100 100 100 100100 100 100 100 100 100
100 100 100100 100100 100 100 100 100100 100 100 100 100100 100 100 100 100 100100 100 100 100 100 100100 100 100 100 100 100 100100 100 100100 100 100 100 100 100100 100 100 100 100 100 100100 100 100 100 100 100 100
100 100 100 100 100100 100 100 100 100 100 100100 100 100
100 100100
100 STP tree0 Non-STP tree
Tree removed
O3621 OP 7-56Vol/tree ft3 = 5.91 5.05Gain in Vol/tree = +17%
O3621 OP 7-56Vol/tree ft3 = 6.59 5.04Gain in Vol/tree = +31%
O3621 OP 7-56
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Louisiana
65
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April 29, 2011
Loblolly Pine Variety CF Q3802 vs. OP Check Columbia Land and Timber, Merryville, Beauregard Parish, LA,
Operational Planting
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37%
CF Q3802 vs. OP 2nd Gen Check, Height Age 4Columbia Land and Timber, Beauregard Parish, LA
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151%
CF Q3802 vs. OP 2nd Gen Check, Tree Volume Age 4Columbia Land and Timber, Beauregard Parish, LA
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230%
CF Q3802 vs. OP 2nd Gen Check, Volume per Acre Age 4
Columbia Land and Timber, Beauregard Parish, LA
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R.O. Martin
CF O3621
Age 5,
Provencal, LA
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Height (ft) Age 5
+ 31% (4.9 ft)
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Volume (ft3/tree) Age 5
+ 113%
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DBH Class Distribution per AcreAge 5
O3621_Prov. 1st Gen OP TPA = 445 421 HT = 20.8 15.9 DBH = 3.4 2.7 STP = 96% 88% Gain in Vol/tree = +113%Gain in Vol/acre = +125%
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Outstanding Growth: CF O3621 Age 6 R.O. Martin
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April 29, 2011
Loblolly Pine Variety CF Q3802 vs. OP Check Columbia Land and Timber, Merryville, Beauregard Parish, LA,
Operational Planting
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37%
CF Q3802 vs. OP 2nd Gen Check, Height Age 4Columbia Land and Timber, Beauregard Parish, LA
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151%
CF Q3802 vs. OP 2nd Gen Check, Tree Volume Age 4Columbia Land and Timber, Beauregard Parish, LA
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March 25, 2011
Loblolly Pine Variety CF Q3802 vs. 2nd Gen Family
Deltic Timber, Union Pa, LA, Operational Planting, Age 6
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CellFor Q3802: Age 6, Deltic Timber
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22.7
29.3
18.6
23.5
15
20
25
30
He
igh
t (f
t)
CF Q3802 Check
+6.6 ft
+4.9 ft
25%
CF Q3802 vs. 2nd Gen OP, Height at Age 5 and 6Deltic Timber, Junction City, Union Pa, LA
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2.7
4.7
1.9
3.4
0
1
2
3
4
5
Tre
e V
olu
me
(ft
3)
CF Q3802 Check
+2.0 ft3
+1.5 ft3
38%
CF Q3802 vs. 2nd Gen OP , Volume at Age 5 and 6Deltic Timber, Junction City, Union Pa, LA
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92%
82%
100%
76%
0%
15%
0% 0% 0%
10%
0% 0%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Survivalrate
STP Crooked Forked Rust Suppr.
CF Q3802 Check
CF Q3802 vs. 2nd Gen OP Survival, STP and Stem Defects
Deltic Timber, Junction City, Union Pa, LA, Age 6
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Arkansas
83
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Variety CF Q3802 vs. 2nd Gen Family Molpus Operational Planting, El Dorado, Union Co, AR,
Age 6 Data
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Q3802
2nd Gen Family
Molpus, Union County AR: Age 6
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25.1
26.9
20.0
21.7
19
24
He
igh
t (f
t)
CF Q3802 Check
+1.8 ft
+1.7 ft
27%
Height Gain: CF Q3802 vs. 2nd Gen FamilyMolpus, El Dorado, Union Co, AR
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4.3
5.1
2.6
3.0
2
3
4
5
Tre
e V
olu
me
(ft
3)
CF Q3802 Check
+0.8 ft3
+0.4 ft3
68%
Volume Gain:CF Q3802 vs. 2nd Gen FamilyMolpus, El Dorado, Union Co, AR
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90%88%93%
75%
0%
18%
4% 2% 0% 0% 2% 5%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Survivalrate
STP Crooked Forked Rust Suppr.
CF Q3802 Check
Survival, STP and Stem DefectsCF Q3802 vs. 2nd Gen Family
Molpus, El Dorado, Union Co, AR, Age 6
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Financial Analysis
• Discounted Cash Flows• IRR• Valuation: pre-merchantable analysis
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Varietals vs 2nd Gen Benefits
Financial Criteria
Varietal Seedlings
2nd Gen Seedlings
Net Benefits
BLV $1,696/ac $935/ac + $761/ac
NPV $1,225/ac $676/ac + $549/ac
IRR CellFor Seedling
13.0% 0.0% + 13.0%
Revenue@ Rotation
$6,299/ac $3,783/ac + $2,516/ac
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Varietals vs CMP Benefits
Financial Criteria
Varietal Seedlings
CMP Seedlings
Net Benefits
BLV $1,696/ac $1,078/ac + $618/ac
NPV $1,225/ac $779/ac + $446/ac
IRR CellFor Seedling
16.8% 0.0% + 16.8%
Revenue@ Rotation
$6,299/ac $4,474/ac + $1,825/ac
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Value of Varietal Traits
57% Value Accretion
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Marginal Return on CellFor Investment
Marginal Rate of Return Initial SI 70, T12CC22, Three levels of genetic gains
NoTax, 500TPA & Discount rate 6%
13.0%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
0.30 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.38 0.40 0.42 0.44 0.46 0.48 0.50
$/seedling
Mar
gin
al I
RR
40% Gain 50% Gain 60% Gain
Gain by + Growth & Yield
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
0.30 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.38 0.40 0.42 0.44 0.46 0.48 0.50
Gain by + Growth & Yield + Rust Reduction + Forking Reduction
Marginal Rate of Return Initial SI 70, T12CC22, Three levels of genetic gains
NoTax, 500TPA & Discount rate 6%
14.6%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
0.30 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.38 0.40 0.42 0.44 0.46 0.48 0.50
$/seedling
Mar
gin
al I
RR
40% Gain 50% Gain 60% Gain
Gain by + Growth & Yield + Rust Reduction
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
0.30 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.38 0.40 0.42 0.44 0.46 0.48 0.50
Gain by + Growth & Yield + Rust Reduction + Forking Reduction + Improved Straightness
Marginal Rate of Return Initial SI 70, T12CC22, Three levels of genetic gains
NoTax, 500TPA & Discount rate 6%
15.0%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
0.30 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.38 0.40 0.42 0.44 0.46 0.48 0.50
$/seedling
Mar
gin
al IR
R
40% Gain 50% Gain 60% Gain
Gain by + Growth & Yield + Rust Reduction + Forking Reduction
Marginal Rate of Return Initial SI 70, T12CC22, Three levels of genetic gains
NoTax, 500TPA & Discount rate 6%
16.8%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
0.30 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.38 0.40 0.42 0.44 0.46 0.48 0.50
$/seedling
Mar
gin
al IR
R
40% Gain 50% Gain 60% Gain
Gain by + Growth & Yield + Rust Reduction + Forking Reduction + Improved Straightness
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Timber & Housing Market Pricing: Are we there yet?
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Varietal Seedlings and Stumpage PriceRegime: LCP, 484/434TPA, SI 60, One Thinning, 40% Volume Gain, Seedling Prices at $0.05 and $0.40
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New Markets: Biomass
• Georgia Biomass began operation April 2011• 750,000 tons of pellets per year• 1,500,000 tons of pine per year
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Practice Good Silviculture
• Address Limiting Factors: Site Specific• Weed Control• Hardwood Control• Nutrition Management• Planting Quality• Thinning Execution
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Planning is Critical
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Silviculture & Varietal Stocking Rate Cost Per Acre…..Not Cost Per Seedling• Varieties have much higher STP with uniform
straightness, stable crown width and limb size.– Crop tree focus– Wider row spacing at establishment– Lower stocking rate
• Less tillage• Less herbicide • Lower planting costs• Use of containerized seedlings enhances survival and
seasonal flexibility
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Varietal Silvicultural System: Higher Value for Equivalent Cost
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Summary
• Varietal forestry is operational in the southern US with loblolly pine.
• CellFor varietals are thoroughly tested.• Varietal silviculture system uses fewer trees per
acre and allows for more flexibility.• Varietal operational performance is high and
stable.• Financial analysis indicates substantial gains in
NPV, IRR and Revenue.
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