CEEH Energy System Optimisation Kenneth Karlsson Risø DTU, National Laboratory for Sustainable...
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Transcript of CEEH Energy System Optimisation Kenneth Karlsson Risø DTU, National Laboratory for Sustainable...
CEEH Energy System Optimisation
Kenneth Karlsson
Risø DTU ,
National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy
Technical University of Denmark
Optimisation loop
Energy System model
EmissionsExternalities
Economic development etc.
Centre for Energy, Environment and Health
Energy System Modelling – 2005 to 2050
Energy demand:
Transport energyElectricityHeatFuels
- from all sectors
Energy supply:
Power plantsBoilersEnergy storageHydrogen productionBio-fuels
Macro economic factors
Fuel pricesHardware pricesExternalities
System priceselectricitydistrict heathydrogenbiofuels
Energy demand
System optimization by minimising total system costs
Costs of health related externalities
Costs of other externalities(climate change, nature etc.)
• Geography– Countries– regions– areas
• Time resolution– e.g. 5 years step simulation– 52 weeks with 5 time steps
• Endogenous investments– power/heating plants– heat storage– electrolysers, heat pumps– transmission lines …etc.
Balmorel
D K - E
D K - WS E-S
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FI
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• Linear optimisation model of the energy system• Minimising total yearly costs in the system
• Constraints – balance equations, like:– power balance (at any time step production has to equal demand)– heat balance– hydrogen balance etc.
and limitations, like:– resource limits (e.g. max available biomass resource)
Balmorel
Electricity
District heat
Hydrogen
Bio-fuels
Energy productionCarBusTrainAirSea
TrucksVansTrainSeaAir
people
goods
Transport
Household
Industry,trade and service
AppliancesHeat lossHeat supply
AppliancesHeat lossHeat supplyProces energy
Air emissions and waste products
Fuel costs, investment costs, taxes, externalities
Linear optimisation models
• Will always choose the cheapest solution• If no restrictions/constraints, there will be one dominating
technology
• Example of change in costs for power producing technologies when including externalities –
using www.recabs.org
www.recabs.org
Biomass
Offshorewind
Gas CC CHP
Coal CHP
www.recabs.org
Biomass
Offshorewind
Gas CC CHP
Coal CHP
CO2-price = 300 DKK/t ~ 40 €/t
Some Balmorel results
Win
d and b
iom
ass
CO2-price = 150 DKK/t ~ 20 €/t
Some Balmorel results
Win
d and c
oal
Some Balmorel results
Tank you for your attention
Seeking Collaboration Partners
Global energy andemission scenarios
Global/regionalair pollutionmodelling
Regional/local air pollutionmodelling
Effects in Denmark
regional energy/emission
scenarios
Within CEEHOutside CEEH
“Optimal” future energy system
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D K - WS E-S
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Balmorel (www.balmorel.com)
Global scenariosIPCC
Boundaryconditions