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CE-QUAL-W2 Shasta Modeling

Katherine ClanceyLaurel Saito, Ph.D., P.E.

Project Update - July ##, 2015Graduate Program of Hydrologic Sciences

University of Nevada, Reno

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Outline

• Meteorological data for Shasta Lake• Recalibration/verification of CE-QUAL-W2

(W2) Shasta model• Reliability of W2 water temperatures• Selecting segments to simulate temperature

curtains

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Meteorological data• Hourly inputs to W2: – air temperature– relative humidity– wind speed

• Observed data at Shasta Lake: daily air temperature– California Data Exchange Center (

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/)– Stations: Shasta Dam-Water Quality (SHD) & Shasta

Dam-USBR (SHS)

– wind direction– cloud cover

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Meteorological data

• Two datasets available for W2 Shasta model:– Redding Municipal Airport data adjusted to Shasta

Lake• NOAA National Climatic Data Center (

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/)• Station: NOAA AWS 725920

– North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data• National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)

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Redding Municipal Airport data adjusted to Shasta Lake

• Used methods from Saito (1999):– Air temperatures: adjustment uses change in elevation

between Redding and Shasta Lake (~600 ft difference)– Dewpoint: adjustment uses change in elevation – Wind speed: adjustment uses regression equation– Wind direction: uses Redding data without adjustment – Cloud cover: uses Redding data without adjustment

Meteorological data

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NARR data• Output from numerical weather prediction model – assimilate data from various sources:

• upper air soundings• hourly and daily meteorology observations• satellite

• Provides all meteorological data needed for W2 • Used grid cell data nearest to Shasta Dam • Grid resolution is approximately 0.3 degrees (32 km)• 3-hour increments

Meteorological data

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/narr/format.html

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Air temperature for W2 Shasta model vs SHS stationMeteorological data

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Air temperature for W2 Shasta model vs SHD stationMeteorological data

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Wind rose• Wind is predominantly in the NW direction at Shasta Lake

Meteorological data

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Recalibration of W2 Shasta model

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Verification of W2

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Water surface elevation (calibration year): January 1995 to December 1995

Verification of W2

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Water surface elevation (dry year): January 2001 to September 2002

Verification of W2

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Water surface elevation (median year): January 2003 to September 2004

Verification of W2

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Water surface elevation (wet year): January 2005 to September 2006

Verification of W2

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Water temperature at segment 41 on the McCloud River: January 1995 to December 1995

Verification of W2El

evati

on (m

)

Temperature oC

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Water temperature at segment 53/54 on the Sacramento River: January 1995 to December 1995

Elev

ation

(m)

Temperature oC

Verification of W2

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Results and conclusion of meteorological data to use for W2

• Slight differences in performance metrics• Pros of using NARR data:– Currently being used to predict water temperatures

in Sacramento River– All meteorological data needed for W2 is in NARR

dataset• Cons:– Meteorological data is for entire grid which covers a

large area– 3-hour increments – need adjustment

Verification of W2

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Results and conclusion of meteorological data to use for W2

• Pros of using Redding data adjusted to Shasta:– Method used for previous W2 model applications.– Data available in an hourly timestep

• Cons:– Data adjusted through several different methods

• Conclusion: Use NARR data for meteorological input to W2

Verification of W2

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Reliability of W2 water temperatures

• Forebay temperatures– Obtained data for 2001 to 2003 from USBR • No data available for 2004 to 2006

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2001-2002 Forebay temperatures (dry year)El

evati

on (ft

)

Temperature oC

Reliability of W2

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2003 Forebay temperatures (median year)El

evati

on (ft

)

Temperature oC

Reliability of W2

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Overall performance metricsReliability of W2

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CDEC Station ID: PMNLatitude 40.843oN Longitude -122.016oW

Water temperatures comparisons at the most upstream segments of the W2 model

Sacramento River McCloud River

Pit River Shasta Dam

Squaw Creek

Reliability of W2

CDEC Station ID: MSSLatitude 40.958oNLongitude -122.219oW

Not to scale

CDEC Station ID: DLTLatitude 40.93959oNLongitude -122.417oW

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Water temperature (dry year): January 2001 to September 2002

Reliability of W2

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Water temperature (dry year): January 2001 to September 2002

Reliability of W2

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Water temperature comparison (median year): January 2003 to September 2004

Reliability of W2

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Water temperature comparison (wet year): January 2005 to September 2006

Reliability of W2

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Selecting segments to place temperature curtains (dry year): January 2001 to September 2002

All runsNo runs

Fall-run Chinook salmon only

Temperature curtains

Fall and spring-run Chinook salmon only

Sacramento River

McCloud River

Pit River

Shasta Dam

Squaw Creek

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Selecting segments to place temperature curtains (median year): January 2003 to September 2004

Temperature curtains

All runsNo runs

Fall-run Chinook salmon only

Sacramento River

McCloud River

Pit River

Shasta Dam

Squaw Creek

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Selecting segments to place temperature curtains (wet year): January 2005 to September 2006

Temperature curtains

Sacramento River

McCloud River

Pit River Shasta Dam

Squaw Creek

All runsNo runs

Fall-run Chinook salmon only

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References

• Saito, L. S., 1999, Interdisciplinary modeling at Shasta Lake, Fort Collins: Colorado State University (Ph.D. dissertation)

• Caldwell, J., 2015, Shasta Modeling Project Coupling CE-QUAL-W2 and RAFT (Draft), MetStat, Inc.

QUESTIONS?