CCS: Trends and possible futures - RITE Trends and possible futures 2 Schlumberger Carbon Services...

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CCS: Trends and possible futures AK Booer, RITE CCS Workshop

Tokyo, Sept 26, 2008

CCS Workshop, 2008

CCS: Trends and possible futures2

Schlumberger Carbon Services

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• Unwanted trends and futures• CCS Technology

• CCS: The story so far• Possible futures

• Technology trends – CO2 monitoring• The way forward

Introduction

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Unwanted trends / CCS / Not just a technology problem

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Some trends and possible futures we do not want…

30-Oct-2006

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Some trends we cannot avoid…

• Renewables are still very expensive

• Demand is growing rapidly

• Fossil Fuels will dominate the next 30 years

• Need to manage CO2 Emissions

Total Primary Energy Supply

0

4

8

12

16

20

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mtoe

0

20

40

60

80

100

Oil p

rices

($/b

bl)

Coal OilGas NuclearHydro Biomass and wasteOther renewables Oil Prices

Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, Reference scenario

Joint Science Academies’ Statement, June 10, 20086


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Climate Change Adaptation and the Transition to a Low Carbon Society

• Academia Brasileira de Ciéncias, Brazil• Royal Society of Canada, Canada• Chinese Academy of Sciences, China• Académie des Sciences, France• Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina,

Germany• Indian National Science Academy, India• Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei, Italy• Science Council of Japan, Japan• Academia Mexicana de Ciencias, Mexico• Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia• Academy of Science of South Africa, South Africa• Royal Society, United Kingdom• National Academy of Sciences, United States of America

Conclusions:

“We urge all nations, but particularly those participating in the 2008 G8 Summit in Hokkaido, Japan, to take the following actions:

• Call on G8+5 governments to agree, by 2009, a timetable, funding, and a coordinated plan for the construction of a significant number of CCS demonstration plants.

• Prepare for the challenges and risks…• Take appropriate economic and policy

measures…• Promote science and technology co-operation…• Urge governments to support research…As national science academies, we commit to

working with our governments to help implement these actions.”

http://www.theodora.com/maps/china_map.html

http://www.theodora.com/maps/france_map.html

http://www.theodora.com/wfb/russia/russia_maps.html

http://www.theodora.com/wfb/south_africa/south_africa_maps.html

Joint NGO statement, August 22, 20087


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Summary:“We call on the Government to implement the

following recommendations:• Focus on renewables and energy efficiency• Introduce greenhouse gas emission

standards for new power plant• Introduce emission standards for existing

plant from 2020• Keep a clear focus in any CCS

demonstration programme• Introduce strong legislation on CO2 storage

and transport.”

• Greenpeace• World Wildlife Fund• Royal Society for the Protection of Birds• Friends of the Earth

Joint statement on coal and carbon capture and storage

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IEA launch the latest edition of Energy Technology Perspectives

• “A global energy technology revolution is both necessary and achievable; but it will be a tough challenge.”,

• “…on average per year 35 coal and 20 gas-fired power plants would have to be fitted with CO2 capture and storage (CCS) technology, between 2010 and 2050 …”

From statement by Mr Nobuo Tanaka, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency,Tokyo, 6 June 2008

CCS technology

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Capture / Transport / Storage

CCS : CO2 Capture, TRANSPORT and Storage10


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CapturePower PlantsOther industrial processesAssociated Gas production

Geological StorageDepleted oil/gas reservoirsSaline Aquifers

TransportPipelinesShips

Capture Options11


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Post Combustion Combustion

Air

Fuel SeparatorCO2

~15%

CO2

Oxyfuel Combustion

O2

Fuel ~90%CO2

Pre Combustion CombustionO2

Fuel ReformerH2O

~99% CO2

H2

Other options – eg. Algae ???

Transport options12


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• Pipelines• Permanent

infrastructure• Short to medium

distance

• Shipping• Flexible option• Medium to long

distance

Tanker image courtesy of IM Skaugen

Storage Options13


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TWO KEY POINTS:

Reservoirs are NOT huge caverns……but ‘solid rocks’ acting like a sponge.

CO2 is NOT a gas, at these temperatures and pressures, but like a dense liquid.

• Depleted oil or gas fields• Deep saline reservoirs• Unmineable coal seams

• “Deep” means 1 – 4 km

• Use of oilfields nearing the end of their normal production offers the chance for ‘enhanced oil recovery’

What’s special about CO2 storage ?14


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• Demonstration of containment• Unlike oil & gas, there is no de facto demonstration of containment• CO2 is not a hydrocarbon• Pressures in the storage reservoir likely to increase• Long time scales• Crucial interest in the overburden & surrounding environment• Different legislative regime requirement to monitor

CO2 is not a hydrocarbon15


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Phase Diagram of Carbon Dioxide

Storage mechanisms & containment16


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Storage sites evolve over time...

• Structural & stratigraphic trapping• Residual – in pore space• Solubility – in water• Mineralisation – “turned to stone”

• Oil/gas fields and natural analogues demonstrate storage time of millions of years.

• Most injected CO2 dissolved or fixed to minerals after ~10,000 years.

from IPCC, 2005

Finding the Right Storage Site17


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What do we need ?

Capacity

The amount of CO2that can be safely stored in the field

Injectivity

Expresses the ease with which the CO2can be injected

Containment

The ability of the formation to store safely and permanently the CO2

Other Criteria

• Environment• Infrastructure• Legal• Public opinion• Economics

Enhanced Oil (Gas) Recovery – not really storage ?18


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www.ieagreen.org.uk

Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) compared to CO2 Storage19


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Enhanced Oil Recovery• CO2 rate depends on production

strategy• Design to minimise amount of CO2

used• Significant volumes of CO2 are

produced and re-injected• Legislation under petroleum industry• No requirement to monitor CO2 fate• Revenues from additional hydrocarbon

produced• Most CO2 used at present comes from

natural geological deposits

Storage• CO2 rate determined by source

(eg. power station)• Designed to store of all the CO2

supplied• Designed for permanent storage over

very long time• Legislation under new CO2 regime• Requirement for long-term monitoring• Revenues from value of carbon –

emissions trading schemes• CO2 sourced from fossil fuel power

station and other industry

CCS: The story so far…

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Projects: Industrial scale / successful / unsuccessful / lessons learned

Some CCS Projects around the world21


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Some R&D Consortia

AII

CCP2

MGSC

Mountaineer

PCORMRSCP

Frio

Weyburn II

Gorgon

Otway

Callide

COACHLacq

InSalah Hassi Touareg

KarniowKetzinSleipner

MOVECBM

PETRONAS

BG Thailand

• CO2ReMoVe• CO2GeoNet• MOVECBM• COSMOS• ANR Monitoring• SURENL• SSC-Ramore• COACH

• CO2STORE• SACS• CO2 SINK• GRASP• Scotland CO2

Consortium • CASSEM• …

Snohvit

CCS on an industrial scale … 22


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SleipnerWeyburn

In SalahCourtesy of IEA Weyburn CO2 Storage and Monitoring Project , BP, and StatoilHydro

Statoil: Snøhvit23


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• The Snøhvit Field, the first offshore gas field found in the Barents Sea and the point of supply for Europe’s first LNG export project.

• Total of 21 production wells will be drilled, along with a single CO2 injection well.

• Offshore, subsea facilities are connected to the shore via a 160 km long pipeline.

• The Snøhvit facility is the first subsea development where all functions will be controlled remotely from a land-based operations centre.

http://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/snohvit/index.html

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BP DF1 : Miller / Peterhead

• BP is proposed a project to generate electricity using hydrogen manufactured from natural gas to create “decarbonised” fuels

• CO2 emissions would be reduced by around 90%.

• The project will take natural gas from the North Sea fields and convert it into hydrogen and carbon dioxide.

• The Hydrogen would be used as a fuel at the Peterhead power station in Scotland, UK

• CO2 transported by an existing pipeline and injected in the Miller Field for CO2-EOR and long-term geological storage.

• Partners: Scottish & Southern Energy, Shell, Conoco-Phillips

CANCELLED

http://www.bp.com/home.do?categoryId=1&contentId=2006973

Shell / Statoil : Draugen / Heidrun25


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CANCELLED

• Statoil and Shell plan for a project to utilise CO2 captured from a large natural gas fired power plant and methanol production facility at Tjeldbergodden in Mid-Norway

• Enhanced oil recovery offshore at the Shell operated Draugen field and later at the Statoil operated Heidrun field.

• Store CO2 to reduce emissions, whilst at the same time achieving increased oil recovery and electricity supply to large industrial consumers.

Lessons so far (1)26


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• There IS currently no full-scale coal-fired power station with CCS• Full-scale “demonstration” projects are needed to show system integration

• There IS over 30 years of industry expertise in pumping CO2 into geological formations• There is a lot of existing technology, the safety issues are manageable• EOR (Enhanced Oil Recovery using CO2) is NOT the same as long-term storage

• Sleipner• Offshore storage is feasible• Importance of monitoring during injection to understand reservoir structure• Carbon taxes work!

• In Salah• Remote regions have fewer public acceptance issues

Lessons so far (2)27


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• Weyburn• CO2 from industrial processes can be piped long distances• CO2 injection in an area familiar with oilfield operations has public acceptance

• Otway Basin• Landowners and pipelines are a difficult mix

• Research projects / universities / consortia• There are still important questions to study• Technology will continue to develop

• Miller and Draugen• EOR revenues are not necessarily sufficient financial incentives• The window of opportunity for North Sea EOR is closing

• On-going commercial activities• The business has already started

Possible futures

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Mature vs Emerging industries / key drivers / four possible futures

A classic approach to (technology) strategy…29


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Mature Industries

A clear future

Industry & Competitor Analysis

Porter’s 5 ForcesEconomic surplusValue chain analysis

Option Generation

Financial Analysis Execute

TimingR

isk

Where/how to competeDelivery systems

Cas

hfl

ow

NPV, DCFIRR, ROI, ROCEEVA

StrategicPlan

5-YearPlan

Time

Classic Strategy

…but CCS is not a mature industry

CCS is an emerging industry…30


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Emerging Industries

A range of futures

PossibleFutures

???

?

Trends & uncertaintiesPossible futuresSignposts

Strategy Under Uncertainty

Portfolio ofActions

$ Big Bets

O Options

♠No-Regretsmoves

see McKinsey “Strategy Under Uncertainty” 1997

Forces that shape the outcome (‘drivers’)31


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Extent of regulation

Big Industries

Retail

Includes Power, large emitters, heavy industry

Includes in addition aviation, road, small businesses

Type of regulation

cap-and-trade

Regulation based policies

i.e., EU Emissions Trading Scheme

Feed in tariffs, technologies standards, tax abatements..

Strong

Weak

Meaningful targets

with financial penalties, strong monitoring and reporting

Weak targets / no financial penalties / poor monitoring

International alignment

Global

Fragmented

USA and China on Board

USA or China only, or neither of them

World economic

growth

High

Low

> 4 % (for Example)

< 4% (for example)

Four Possible Futures32


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Meaningful Targets

“Don’t act together”

“Finally, nothing

happens”

World accepts binding emissions

targets before 2020

World delays acceptance of binding emissions

targets

“We all agree to do a little”

“International teamwork”

Strong and meaningful emissions reduction

targets

Weak targets, leading to small emissions

reductions

No targets and no emissions reduction in

most countriesInternational

Alignment

32

Portfolio of Actions33


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• Big bets• Options• No-regrets moves

Technology trends – CO2 monitoring

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Monitoring objectives / challenges / technologies

CO2 Monitoring – 3 Objectives35


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CO2 Plume

CaprockReservoir

Drinkable Aquifer

Well

Follow the CO2 Plume Migration

Monitor the Environment (To prove that the environment is unharmed)

Watch the possible Escape Routes (for early detection of a leakage)

Monitoring challenges36


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• Detection versus quantification• Range of scales

• Time - from the very short to the very long• Space - from the very small to the very large

• You can’t directly measure what you want to…• Spatial distribution and concentration of CO2• Sealing boundaries, capacity, permeability.

• You can’t measure where you want to…• Confined to the surface or wells

• …hence you measure what you CAN and construct models• consistent with available information• some predictive power

Monitoring methods37


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• Geophysical Techniques • Timelapse Seismic• Electromagnetic• Gravimetry • Microseismics

• Well Logging Techniques• Well Logging – CO2 Saturation,

temperature, pressure• Sampling• Well Logging – Wellbore Integrity:

cement, casing

• Environmental Monitoring• Aquifers• Surface• Atmospheric

Technological challenges for monitoring 38


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• Methodology to estimate quantitatively the CO2 in place (with uncertainty) for independent verification and validation of carbon credits (CDM or ETS)

• Complete understanding of CO2 geochemistry and geomechanics• Calibration of long-term processes (mineralization) • CO2 front monitoring in heterogeneous media• Uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis• Selection of optimum remediation options• Improvements in fluid flow modelling…

• …BUT, modelling can NEVER predict effects of missing features(eg. small fractures)

The way forward

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The CCS challenge / demonstration and deployment / barriers & incentives / the role of industry / conclusion

The CCS Challenge40


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• International Energy Agency:“…on average per year 35 coal and 20 gas-fired power plants would have to be fitted

with CO2 capture and storage (CCS) technology, between 2010 and 2050 …”• But it is said that:

“CCS technology is unproven”• Professor Martin Rees,

President of the Royal Society (Guardian Newspaper 7 Aug): “It seems ridiculous to have to remind people that all technologies are unproven until

they are proven. People said electricity could not work on a commercial scale.”• …so the challenge is

• How to prove them ?• How to get from NONE to 55 per year ?

“Two-tranche model” for demonstration and deployment41


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• Several ‘waves’ of demonstration and deployment before commercial roll-out

• Early plants require special incentives and regulatory support

• Commercial plants fully supported by carbon and energy prices

• “Learning through doing”

From J. Gibbins, H. Chalmers / Energy Policy 36 (2008) 501–507

Overcoming Barriers42


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• Regulatory framework• International framework• National regulations

• Public Acceptance• Informed debate• Gaining confidence and experience through

full-scale demonstrations• Funding

• A value for Carbon• Technology

• Learning through doing• Industry’s role

Regulatory framework

Public acceptance

Funding

Technology

Japan CCS Co Ltd43


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“A grouping of 24 Japanese firms, mainly utilities and energy companies, will work with government on feasibility studies for carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects, an official said on Monday.”

"We now have a firm that brings together all the technologies in this field," Toshihiro Mitsuhashi, who handles environmental policies for Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), told reporters.

Participating in the venture called "Japan CCS Co Ltd" are 11 utilities, including Tokyo Electric Power Co, five oil refiners, four engineering firms, two oil and gas developers, one steelmaker and one chemical firm.

TOKYO (Reuters) Jun 30, 2008

Joint NGO statement on coal and carbon capture and storage44


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• “Carbon capture and storage may have a role in future to deliver the deep emission reductions that are needed to avoid climate chaos…”

• “It is vital that a strong regulatory framework is established to ensure that transport and storage of CO2 is safe, environmentally benign and subject to strong independent scrutiny. Key elements must include robust provisions for storage site monitoring and aftercare, and mechanisms to manage liability for any CO2 leakage.”

“The science of climate change is unequivocal – to avoid catastrophic impacts, industrialised countries like the UK must make steep and urgent reductions in their carbon dioxide emissions.”

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Joint Science Academies’ Statement: Climate ChangeAdaptation and the Transition to a Low Carbon Society

• “Technologies should be developed and deployed for carbon capture, storage and sequestration (CCS), particularly for emissions from coal which will continue to be a primary energy source for the next 50 years for power and other industrial processes.”

• “This will involve governments and industry working collaboratively to develop the financial and regulatory conditions needed to move CCS forward and international coordination in the development of demonstration plants.”

“Given the time-lags inherent in the global energy system, actions need to be taken now to reach the desired target by 2050.”

CCS: Trends and possible futures - RITE Trends and possible futures 2 Schlumberger Carbon Services...

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