台灣對於大陸在 1995-96 年及 - nccu.edu.tctung/Documents/P-34.pdf · 2 ꒤ꓥ멋굮ꅇ ꖻꓥ뗻꛴ꕸ왗ꗁ늳ꅂ걆ꩶ뗗굞ꅂꝑ꽱많엩ꅂꥍꡍ떦맯꧳ꑪ뎰Ꙣ1995-96
當前台灣經濟成長動能減緩原因與對策 · 台灣出口高度集中大陸場且多為...
Transcript of 當前台灣經濟成長動能減緩原因與對策 · 台灣出口高度集中大陸場且多為...
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104.8.20
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1.56% ..................................................................................................... 11
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2 .......................................................... 14
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2 ....................................................................................... 15
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(entrepreneurship) .............................................................................................. 25
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-
1
GDP
%
/GDP 69.6 51.6 187.6 24.0 18.7 13.5
/GDP 58.8 44.0 142.0 21.7 15.2 9.4
/GDP 10.8 7.6 45.6 2.2 3.5 4.1
/GDP 129.2 97.2 350.9 45.2 40.2 29.8
GDP () 1.0 2.7 0.6 19.5 8.7 32.9
GDP (2014 )
GDP 1.2.
IFS IHS Global Insight
-
2
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
-60
-30
0
30
60
2000Q1 2003Q1 2006Q1 2009Q1 2012Q1 2015Q2
()
% %
0.82
IHS Global Insight
-
3
IMF 1
1. 1/3
2.
(1) 5
(2)
1986~2000 GDP 1% 2.18%
2001~2013 GDP 1% 1.31%
2013 GDP 1% 0.7%
1990 GDP
2000
Constantinescu et al. (2015)
1
(1)
(2)
-
4
2000 GDP
2000
2 1993 60% 2012
35%
World Bank (2015) What Lies Behind the Global Trade
Slowdown? Global Economic Prospects, January.
% (=/)
60%
35%
-
5
3
1. 2014 1,250
2. 2015 2025
3~5 3
1.
2.
IEK (2015/08)
-
6
1. 1IC 2
50%
2.
1.
2.
3.
IC
1.
2.
1.
2.
3.
1.
2.
3.
LED
IEK(2015/08)
/
-
7
1.
-13.4
-12.5
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015Q1
Q2
%
-
8
0.364
0.422
0.441 0.426
0.314
0.306
0.349
0.307
0.285
0.308
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
2000 2005 2010 2015/1-6
%
() 38.9 30.9 20.1
18.3 14.0 27.3
12.4 13.6 7.3
6.7 5.1 4.0
World Trade Atlas
2. 38.9%30.9%
20.1%
(2015 2 )
-
9
2015Q2
(%) (2.9) (4.8) (1.1) (12.5) (47.2) (6.0) (18.5)
-4.4
-11.3
-5.2
31.3
-2.7 -1.2 -4.8
-21.0
-12.5
-6.9
-13.0
6.6
-13.3 -13.2
9.4
-17.1
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2015Q1 2015Q2
%
1. 2
13.2% 13.3%
2. 12
20%
-
10
0.349
0.368
0.320
0.340
0.410
0.388
0.416
0.433
0.491
0.380
0.392
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
2000 2005 2010 2015/1-6
%
4.7 6.7 22.3
6.6 6.6 14.9
7.7 6.7 5.7
4.1 2.8 0.2
9.1 8.7 1.7
10.5 12.2 13.3
39.9 25.3 17.0
4.1 20.4 1.6
() 6.7 6.4 4.9
FTA ITA
39.9%25.3%
17.0%
(2015 2 )
-
11
: %
2015/(p) 2.14 3.19 -1.29 0.59 -1.89 1.06 2.27 2.43
(3.21) (2.64) (-1.01) (1.47) (-5.39) (2.79) (4.55) (2.44)
(f) 1.01 2.92 -1.53 2.60 -3.23 4.26 0.52 1.52
(3.34) (2.89) (-1.44) (2.50) (-7.31) (5.27) (4.83) (3.28)
2015 (f) 1.56 3.05 -1.42 1.62 -2.68 2.65 1.35 1.96
(3.28) (2.76) (-1.24) (2.00) (-6.52) (4.02) (4.69) (2.88)
: (5/22)
:
1.56%
5 3.28% 1.72
-
12
: %
2015/Q1 (r) 3.84 3.53 -2.66 -0.20 -11.55 1.76 6.13 2.71
Q2 (p) 0.52 2.85 0.05 1.33 6.05 0.38 -1.30 2.15
(3.05) (2.75) (0.14) (2.54) (-0.06) (3.11) (3.27) (2.41)
Q3 (f) 0.10 2.94 -1.42 4.14 3.21 4.36 -0.39 1.64
(3.14) (2.80) (-1.15) (2.49) (-5.53) (4.21) (5.38) (3.57)
Q4 (f) 1.90 2.90 -1.64 1.04 -7.60 4.14 1.39 1.40
(3.53) (2.98) (-1.72) (2.51) (-8.50) (6.48) (4.29) (2.99)
2015 (f) 1.56 3.05 -1.42 1.62 -2.68 2.65 1.35 1.96
(3.28) (2.76) (-1.24) (2.00) (-6.52) (4.02) (4.69) (2.88)
(5/22)
:
*
/
2.14% 5 3.21% 1.07
1.01% 5 3.34% 2.33
1. (1)(2)
(3)
2. (1)(2)
-
13
:
(1)=(2)+(3) (2) (3)
2015/Q1 (r) 3.84 1.25 1.94 -0.38 -0.04 -0.36 0.32 -0.27 2.59 4.21 1.62
Q2 (p) 0.52 2.72 1.52 0.01 0.29 0.23 0.06 0.91 -2.20 -0.92 1.28
(3.05) (2.18) (1.46) (0.02) (0.55) (0.00) (0.56) (0.14) (0.87) (2.30) (1.44)
Q3 (f) 0.10 1.36 1.56 -0.20 0.90 0.12 0.78 -0.90 -1.25 -0.28 0.97
(3.14) (1.49) (1.48) (-0.16) (0.54) (-0.21) (0.75) (-0.37) (1.65) (3.78) (2.13)
Q4 (f) 1.90 1.78 1.50 -0.25 0.22 -0.43 0.65 0.31 0.12 0.98 0.86
(3.53) (2.28) (1.54) (-0.26) (0.53) (-0.49) (1.01) (0.47) (1.25) (3.04) (1.79)
2015 (f) 1.56 1.78 1.62 -0.21 0.35 -0.11 0.46 0.01 -0.22 0.95 1.17
(3.28) (1.70) (1.47) (-0.18) (0.43) (-0.26) (0.70) (-0.02) (1.57) (3.29) (1.72)
: (5/22)
*
:
/
3. 3 0.1%
-
14
%
1 1
2014 -3.5 6.1 2.3 -0.2 -1.5 3.2 1.8 -0.4 2.4 2.7
2015
Q1-6.0 4.6 -3.0 -11.5 -17.2 2.3 -10.2 -4.7 -11.1 -4.2
Q2 -10.2 -2.2 -7.21 -14.7 -17.6 -1.9 -15.7 -5.0 -14.9 -9.8
1~ 6 -8.1 1.0 -5.2 -13.2 -17.4 0.1 -13.2 -4.8 -13.1 -7.1
7 n.a. -8.3 -3.4 -12.4 -16.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. -11.9
Datastream
2. n.a.
()
1.1.4%50.6%
2
-
15
: %
() -
0.52 2.72 1.52 0.01 1.20 -2.20 -0.92 1.28
2.2 3.2 0.8 0.5 1.9 -1.0 -0.5 0.5
1.8 -0.7 1.3 -2.0 0.0 2.5 1.2 -1.3
:
20152
2
1 2
2
2015/Q1 2015/Q2
3.84 0.52
2.5 2.2
2.8 1.8
2015 %yoy
-
16
%
-9.81 -7.77 -2.04 -3.21
-7.21 -9.85 2.64 -2.24
-14.74 -12.88 -1.86 -0.50
-14.90 -16.07 1.17
-15.60 -20.48 4.88
-18.89 -17.53 -1.36 1.
2.
Datastream
1.
(1)
(2)
(3)
2015 2
()
-
17
718.0 587.7 130.3 102.1 1,435.1 1,085.8 349.3 264.3 1,068.0 808.1 260.0 91.8
142.5 122.8 19.7 27.3 233.4 273.5 -40.1 -18.4 338.3 334.5 3.9 -10.4
2014
GDP(%)
*
7.6 45.6
*
10.8
2.
(1) GDP 45.6%
(2) 1.1
5.0
(3) MERS
(4)
2015 2
-
18
: %/
0.52 2.72 1.52 0.24 0.01 0.23 0.97
2.2 3.2 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.4 1.5
1.8 -0.7 1.3 -- -2.0
:
0.0
()
3.
(1) 22.720.91
(2) 2 2015
38.4% 0.9
2015 2
-
19
7
1. 1-6 M2 6.47% 2.14%
2. 8 13
M2
-
20
1.
(1)
(2)
2. 3,179 3,596 13.1%
984 1,033 4.9%
3.
(1) IMF 0.5 IMF 4 1
(2) IMF20145 3
(3)
GDP 1 GDP
4
() GDP 0.4% GDP 1.5%
GDP 1.5% GDP 3.0%
IMF (2014), Chapter 3: Is It Time for an Infrastructure Push? The
Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment, World Economic
Outlook, Oct..
-
21
Q1 Q2
8.8 12.9 10.1 3.6 -20.3 34.8 12.3 -2.3 1.4 2.7 -4.2 -9.8
() 4.6 5.8 5.0 -0.3 -6.2 15.2 3.4 -1.8 0.9 1.1 -1.7 -5.0
1.8 1.9 2.3 1.1 -3.2 5.5 3.4 1.6 0.7 0.2 -2.0 -2.0
-0.1 1.3 1.1 0.5 -2.9 3.3 0.7 -0.8 -0.3 0.3 -1.0 -1.2
0.2 1.6 -0.1 -0.5 -2.8 3.9 1.8 -1.1 -0.1 0.8 0.7 -0.2
2.3 2.3 1.8 2.9 -5.2 6.9 3.0 -0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.3 -1.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 20152009 20102005 2006 2007 2008
1.
2.
1 6 6 8.7% 10.5%
-
22
%
%
%
2005 29.20 23.89 5.31 3.6 3.0 0.7
2010 33.14 24.23 8.92 4.8 3.5 1.3
2014 31.76 21.30 10.46 5.3 3.5 1.7
2005-2014 30.94 22.58 8.35 44.1 32.2 11.9
2015
-
23
LG
1.
2.
3.
RTAs
IMF 6RTAs 25%
TPPRCEP
-
24
()
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, UNCTAD (2015)
skill mismatch
OECD
-
25
(entrepreneurship) 7
1. 2011
2. 2013
3. 2015 9
-
26
: %
(GDP)*
2009 -1.57 -0.09
2010 10.63 9.84
2011 3.8 -0.63
2012 2.06 1.92
2013 2.23 3.63
2014 3.77 5.73
2015/Q1 3.84 8.76
Q2 0.52 5.95
:
2013
TOT
8
* = GDP
+
+
-
-
+
T = M(1
1
)
T = E(1
1
)
()
()
T T M/PM M/PE E/PM E/PE
-
27
A. Y=C+I+G+X-M
B. 1 Y=(C-Cm)+(I-Im) +(G-Gm)+(X-Xm)
2015 2
: %
(A) (B)
(Y) 0.52 0.52
2.73 0.92
(C) 1.52 0.55
(I)2 0.97 0.37
(G) 0.24 0.00
-2.20 -0.40
(X-M) -2.20
(X-Xm) -0.40
1. CmImGm Xm CIG X M=Cm+Im+Gm+Xm 2011
2.
-
28
2015
: %
(A) (B)
(Y) 1.56 1.56
1.78 0.84
(C) 1.62 0.89
(I)2 0.47 0.23
(G) -0.32 -0.28
-0.22 0.71
(X-M) -0.22
(X-Xm) 0.71
1. CmImGm Xm CIG X M=Cm+Im+Gm+Xm 2011
2.
-
29
1. Constantinescu, C, A Mattoo and M Ruta (2015), The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural? IMF Working Paper, Jan..
Flanders, Stephanie (2015), The Warning Signs of Trade Stagnation, Financial Times, July 28.
2. 200855.0%201372.8%
55.7% 66.1%
3. IEK (2015/08)
()
4. IMF Blanchard IMF IMF
IMF Giles, Chris (2015), IMF Chief Economist
Olivier Blanchard to Retire, Financial Times, May 14.
5. IMF (2014), Chapter 3: Is It Time for an Infrastructure Push? The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment, World Economic Outlook, Oct..
6. Kpodar K. and Iman P. (2015) Does a Regional Trade Agreement Lesson or Exacerbate Growth Volatility? An Empirical
Investigation, IMF working paper No. 15/177
7. Narea, Nicole (2015), Dell Pushes UN To Adopt Entrepreneurship In Its New Global Development Agenda, Forbes, Aug. 6.
Smith, Daniel (2010) The Role of Entrepreneurship in Economic Growth, Undergraduate Economic Review: Vol. 6: Iss.1, Article
7.UNCTAD (2004), Entrepreneurship and Economics Development, May.
8. 100 () 1 5 50 10