第一章 緒論 - ir.lib.pccu.edu.twir.lib.pccu.edu.tw/retrieve/62288/陳有霞03.pdf · modified...
Transcript of 第一章 緒論 - ir.lib.pccu.edu.twir.lib.pccu.edu.tw/retrieve/62288/陳有霞03.pdf · modified...
- 1 -
Ball and Brown (1968)
Beaver, Clark, and Wright (1979) Ball and Brown (1968)
(cumulated
abnormal returns, CAR)
(Stronger and Walker, 1993;
DeFond, Hung, and Trezevant, 2007; 1992)
(Jones, 1991; Schipper, 1989; Watts and Zimmerman, 1978;
2002) Watts and Zimmerman (1978)
(2002)
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Davidson, Stickney, and Weil (1987)
(generally accept accounting
principles, GAAP)
Schipper (1989)
(GAAP)
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Healy and Wahlen (1999)
Watts and Zimmerman
(1978) (positive accounting theory)
: (the bonus plan
hypothesis) (the debt covenant hypothesis) 3.
(the political cost hypothesis)
( )
Healy (1985)
( )
(big bath)
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( )
:
(Healy, 1995)
,
(DeAngelo, 1986; De-
chow, Sloan, and Sweeney , 1995; Healy, 1985; Jones, 1991;
Kothari, Leone, and Wasley, 2005)
( )Healy model
Healy (1995)
Healy
2-1 2-2
TTANDAtt / (2-1)
ttt NDATADA (2-2)
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tNDA : t
tDA : t
tTA : t
T: 1, 2, 3…T
T:
( ) DeAngelo model
DeAngelo (1986)
Healy (1985)
2-3
2-4
1 tt TANDA (2-3)
ttt NDATADA (2-4)
tNDA : t
tDA : t
tTA : t
t:
( ) Jones Model
Jones (1991) Healy (1995) Deangelo (1986)
Jones model
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2-5 2-6 2-7
)/()/()/1( 131211 tttttt APPEAREVANDA (2-5)
)/(ˆ)/(ˆ)/1(ˆ131211 tttttt APPEAREVANDA (2-6)
tttt NDAATADA 1/ (2-7)
tNDA : t
1tA : t
tREV : t
tPPE : t
tDA : t
tTA : t
1̂ 2̂ 3̂ :
( )modified Jones model
Dechow, et al., (1995) Jones model
2-8 2-9 2-10
)/(/)()/1( 131211 ttttttt APPEARECREVANDA (2-8)
)/(ˆ/)(ˆ)/1(ˆ131211 ttttttt APPEARECREVANDA (2-9)
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tttt NDAATADA 1/ (2-10)
tNDA : t
1tA : t
tREV : t
tPPE : t
tREC : t
tDA : t
tTA : t
1̂ 2̂ 3̂ :
( ) modified Jones model
Jones model modified Jones model
(Dechow et al.,1995; Guay, Kothari, and Watts, 1996)
Kothari et al., (2005)
Jones model
modified Jones model (return on asset,
ROA)
2-11 2-12
]/)[(ˆ)/1(ˆ1211 ttttt ARECREVANDA
)ˆ/(ˆ413 ttt ROAAPPE
(2-11)
tttt NDAATADA 1/ (2-12)
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tNDA : t
1tA : t
tREV : t
tPPE : t
tREC : t
tROA : t
tDA : t
tTA : t
1̂ 2̂ 3̂ :
( ) (performance-matched approach)
Kothari et al., (2005)
Kothari et al., (2005) modified
Jones model
Ball and Brown (1968)
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Ball and Brown (1968)
Beaver (1966)
Ball and Brown (1968)
,
1946 1965 261
(abnormal
performance index, API)
API
API API
Ball and Brown (1968)
(Scott, 2003)
(slope
coefficient) 2-13 2-14
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2-15
ititit UECAR 10 (2-13)
T
t
itit ARCAR1
(2-14)
1, tiitit EEUE (2-15)
itCAR : i t
itAR : i t
itUE : i t
0 :
1 :
itE : i t
1, tiE : i t-1
Beaver et al., (1979) Ball and Brown (1968)
1965 1974 276 Ball and
Brown (1968)
25 Spearman
Freeman (1987) 1966 1982
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t Wilcoxon
sign rank
(size effect)
Atisase (1985) 1969 1972 200
( )
(over-the-counter market, OTC)
(size effect)
Kormendi and Lipe (1987) 1947 1980 145
ERC
ARIMA (2, 1, 0)
Stronger and Walker (1993)
1971 1986 146
Collins, Maydew, and Weiss (1997) Ohlson (1995)
1953 1993 40
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Collins et al.
1.
2. 3. 4.
Xie (2001) Jones model
1971 1992 7,506
Christensen, Smith, and Stuerke (2004) 1989 1992
41
(ERC)
ERC
Ghosh, Gu, and Jain (2005)
1980 2000 92,783
Defond et al., (2007) 1995 2002 53
53,197
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(mean-adjusted returns model) 2.
(market-adjusted returns model) 3. (market model)
4.GARCH ( 2000) :
( )
(ex ante)
: i t
2-16
1
11
1)ˆ(Tt
itit RT
RE (2-16)
)ˆ( itRE : i t
itR : i t
( )
mR
(
)
2-17
mtit RRE )ˆ( (2-17)
)ˆ( itRE : i t
itR : i t
( )
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Markowitz , Sharpe
i t Rit
(ordinary leas suaremodel,
OLS) 2-18
2-19
itmtiit RR 1 (2-18)
itR : i t
mtR : t
1 : i
i : i
it : i t
mtiiit RRE )ˆ( (2-19)
)ˆ( itRE : i t
mtR : t
i : i
i : i
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( )GARCH
Engel (1982)
autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticty estimation,
ARCH Bollerslev
(1986) (generalized
autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity, GARCH)
ARCH
(GARCH)
GARCH(1,1) ARCH
GARCH (1, 1) 2-20 2-21
2-22
itmtiit RR 1 (2-20)
),0(~/ 1 ittit hN (2-21)
2
1,1,10 titiit rhh (2-22)
itR : i t
mtR : t
1 : i
i : i
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(Ball and Brown, 1968; Defond et
al., 2007)
Choi and Salamon (1989)
(ERC)
Holthansen and Verrecchia (1998)
(noise)
Penman and Zhang (2002) 1975 1997
38,540
(1994) 1983 1992
(CAR)
ERC
( ) ERC
ERC
(2006)
2003 2004
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Ball and Brown (1968)
(Beaver, Clarke, and Wright, 1979; Choi and Salamon,
1989; Holthansen and Verrecchia, 1998; 1994
2008)
(Watts and Zimmerman, 1978; Schipper, 1989;
Kothari et al., 2005; 2009) (2009)
?
(1994) 1983 1992
DeAngelo (1986)
(2008)
2002 2006
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DA < 0)
1,444 1,568
3,012
3-1
3,629
(395)
(26)
(31)
(165)
3,012
3-2
2004 257 (17.80%) 265 (16.90%) 522
2005 273 (18.91%) 307 (19.58%) 580
2006 285 (19.73%) 331 (21.11%) 616
2007 284 (19.67%) 350 (22.32%) 634
2008 345 (23.89%) 315 (20.09%) 660
1,444 (100%) 1,568 (100%) 3,012
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(CAR)
(UE) (ADA)
(UE ADA)
(SG) (LEV) (OCF)
(IH) (MH) (NB) (SIZE)
(β)
(CAR)
(AR)
3-1 10
260 250
3-1 3-2
)ˆ( ititit RERAR (3-1)
t
t
itit ARCAR1
, (3-2)
:
itCAR : i t
itAR : i t
( ) (UE)
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Stronger and Walker(1993)
(ERC)
3-3
1
1
it
ititit
TA
NINIUE (3-3)
itUE : i t
itNI : i t
1itNI : i t-1
1itTA : i t
( ) (ADA)
Kothari et al., (2005) modified
Jones model
( ) (UE ADA)
( ) (SG)
(2007)
( ) (LEV)
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Dhaliwal (1991)
( ) (OCF)
(Becker et al., 1998; Dechow et al., 1995;)
( ) (IH)
( 2008)
(
1999)
( ) (MH)
Jenson and Meckling (1976)
( ) (NB)
( 2002)
( ) (SIZE)
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3-3
CAR
UE
ADA Kothari et al. (2005)
Modified Jones Model
( )
UE ADA
UE ADA
SG
LEV
OCF
IH
MH
NB
SIZE
i
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ERC
(Atiase, 1985; Collins, Kothari, and
Ryburn, 1987; Gelb and Zarowin, 2002) 3-4
3-4
ijijijijijijij LEVSGADAUEADAUECAR 543210
ijijijijij SIZENBMHIHOCF 109876
ijij 11
(3-4)
ijCAR : i j
ijUE : i j
ijADA : i j
ijij ADAUE : i j
ijSG : i j
ijLEV : i j
ijOCF : i j
ijIH : i j
ijMH : i j
ijNB : i j
SIZE : i j
ij : i j
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4-1 4-2 4-1
4-2 Panel A
4-2 Panel B
( ) 2
6 (CAR_-2, 6) -2.000
1 6
(CAR_-1, 6) -1.886
(UE) 0.006
0.080
: (2008) (SG)
1.102 (LEV) 0.369
(COF) 0.088 (MH) (IH)
2.565(%) 33.589(%)
1.9
(SIZE)
15.010 ( ) 0.934
( )
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4-1
(N=3,012)
Q1 Q2 Q3
CAR(-2,6) -1.886
9.572 -58.38 -6.588 -2.040 2.818 45.28
CAR(-1,6) -2.000 10.043 -62.78 -6.998 -2.210 2.965 49.97
UE 0.006 0.120 -0.66 -0.050 0.000 0.040 2.45
ADA 0.080 0.082 0.00 0.030 0.060 0.110 .81
SG 0.102 0.533 -1.00 -0.100 0.060 0.230 19.05
LEV 0.369 0.166 0.02 0.240 0.360 0.480 .98
OCF 0.088 0.138 -1.67 0.020
0.400
0.08 0.160 1.34
MH 2.565 3.154 0.00 0.400 1.420 3.660 27.81
IH 33.589 20.910 0.00 17.145 29.880 47.565 97.97
NB 1.898 1.514 0.00 0.000 2.000 3.000 7.00
SIZE 15.010 1.342 11.71 14.080 14.820 15.650 20.29
B 0.934 0.348 -1.11 0.710 0.940 1.160 3.29
CAR UE ADA ( ) UE×ADA
( ) SG LEV OCF
MH IH NB SIZE β
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4-2
Panel A (N=1,444)
Q1 Q2 Q3
CAR(-2,6) -1.879 9.775 -54.76 -6.897 -2.073 0.861 45.28
CAR(-1,6) -2.001 10.198 -60.42 -7.133 -2.420 2.971 49.97
UE 0.012 0.136 -0.66 -0.042 0.004 0.047 2.45
ADA 0.0801 0.085 0.00 0.024 0.055 0.108 0.81
SG 0.110 0.679 -1.00 -0.105 0.045 0.230 19.05
LEV 0.377 0.16778 0.02 0.246 0.379 0.488 0.98
OCF 0.043 0.136 -1.67 -0.011 0.046 0.108 0.58
MH 2.616 3.288 0.00 0.410 1.440 3.645 27.75
IH 32.501 19.777 0.00 17.058 29.100 45.840 97.1
NB 1.858 1.523 0.00 0.000 2.000 3.000 7.00
SIZE 14.925 1.216 12.21 14.101 14.757 15.491 19.94
B 0.927 0.348 -1.11 0.709 0.934 1.140 3.29
Panel B (N=1,568)
Q1 Q2 Q3
CAR(-2,6) -1.892 9.384 -58.38 -6.377 -1.982 2.756 43.87
CAR(-1,6) -1.992 9.901 -62.78 -6.896 -2.051 2.966 47.47
UE -0.000 0.103 -0.64 -0.048 -0.002 0.041 0.60
ADA 0.080 0.078 0.00 0.028 0.057 0.105 0.72
SG 0.094 0.348 -1.00 -0.091 0.067 0.224 5.30
LEV 0.360 0.165 0.03 0.228 0.354 0.475 0.97
OCF 0.128 0.127 -0.35 0.049 0.119 0.193 1.34
MH 2.518 3.027 0.00 0.400 1.410 3.680 27.81
IH 34.591 21.860 0.23 17.213 31.080 49.580 97.97
NB 1.935 1.506 0.00 0.000 2.000 3.000 7.00
SIZE 15.089 1.444 11.71 14.066 14.893 15.781 20.29
B 0.940 0.349 -0.96 0.718 0.946 1.172 2.16
CAR UE ADA ( ) UE×ADA
( ) SG LEV OCF MH
IH NB SIZE β
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4-3 4-4 Pearson 4-3
4-4
4-1 (UE)
(LEV) (COF) (MH)
(IH) (NB) (SIZE)
(CAR_-2, 6) (CAR_-1, 6)
(ADA)
(COF) (r=-2.66)
(SIZE)
(ADA) (r=-0.076)
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4-3 Pearson
Panel A (N=3012)
CAR_-2, 6 CAR_-1, 6 UE ADA SG LEV OCF MH IH BN SIZE β
CAR_-2, 6 1
CAR_-1, 6 0.967** 1
UE 0.102** 0.104** 1
ADA -0.025 -0.021 0.109** 1
SG 0.004 0.004 0.242** 0.155** 1
LEV 0.057** 0.060** -0.018 -0.013 -0.086** 1
OCF 0.110** 0.114** 0.055* -0.266** -0.103** 0.134** 1
MH 0.037* 0.039* 0.054** 0.014 -0.009 0.071** 0.014 1
IH 0.053** 0.051** 0.074** 0.105** 0.108** 0.038* 0.184** -0.169** 1
NB 0.064** 0.064** 0.021 0.059** 0.042 -0.003 0.066** -0.025 0.189** 1
SIZE 0.061** 0.065** -0.006 -0.076** 0.085** -0.108** 0.102** -0.180** 0.422** 0.039 1
β 0.006 0.013 -0.034 -0.018 0.002 0.020 0.143** -0.128** 0.106** 0.028 0.400** 1
1. CAR UE ADA ( ) UE×ADA ( ) SG
LEV OCF MH IH NB SIZE β
2. ** 0.01 ( )
* 0.05 ( )
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4-4 Pearson
(N=1,444 ) (N=1,568 )
CAR_-2, 6 CAR_-1, 6 UE DA SG LEV OCF MH IH BN SIZE β
CAR_-2, 6 1 0.967** 0.160** -0.072** 0.014 0.051* 0.142** 0.042 0.077** 0.044 0.088** 0.041
CAR_-1, 6 0.968** 1 0.163** -0.072** 0.001 0.053* 0.130** 0.047 0.077** 0.044 0.091** 0.045
UE 0.057* 0.057* 1 0.016 0.472** 0.025 0.246** 0.054* 0.117** -0.014 0.015 0.002
DA 0.022 0.029 0.181** 1 0.133** -0.003 0.290** 0.017 0.130** 0.067** -0.058* -0.002
SG -0.001 0.006 0.148** 0.176** 1 -0.111** 0.155** 0.018 0.174** 0.004 0.120** 0.091**
LEV 0.063* 0.067* -0.047 -0.022 -0.078** 1 0.232** 0.015 0.050* 0.009 -0.104** 0.014
OCF 0.119** 0.115** 0.116** 0.001 -0.018 0.174** 1 0.051* 0.242** 0.120** 0.126** 0.159**
MH 0.039 0.038 0.037 -0.006 -0.011 0.092** 0.014 1 -0.185** 0.056* -0.164** -0.090**
IH 0.025 0.021 0.042 0.079** 0.081** 0.026 0.106** -0.160** 1 0.109** 0.482** 0.118**
NB 0.063(*) 0.055* -0.024 0.043 0.021 -0.028 0.064* 0.098** 0.159** 1 -0.082** -0.027
SIZE 0.027 0.034 -0.021 -0.100** 0.077** -0.118** 0.042 -0.155** 0.334** -0.088** 1 0.421**
β -0.030 -0.020 -0.062* -0.034 -0.047 0.025 0.130** -0.117** 0.091** 0.014 0.375** 1
1. CAR UE ADA UE×ADA SG LEV
OCF MH IH NB SIZE β
2. ** 0.01 ( )
* 0.05 ( )
3.
4.
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panel
data (CAR)
( )
3 (t=-3) 10 t=10)
(UE)
(ADA) (UE×ADA)
(SG) (LEV) (OCF)
(MH) (IH) (NB)
(SIZE) (β)
4-5 panel A
4-5 panelB
4-5 panelC
2
6 (CAR_-2, 6) 1 6 (CAR_-1, 6)
4-6
F
OLS (F=1.17, p=0.017) Hausman
(H=23.52, p=0.015)
(UE) (CAR_-2, 6)
( =10.059 p=0.003)
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(Kormendi and Lipe, 1987 2005) (ADA)
(CAR_-2, 6) ( =9.892 p=0.055)
(UE ADA) (CAR_-2, 6) ( =-33.917
p=0.075 )
(OCF) (CAR_-2, 6)
( =9.417 p=0.003 )
(IH) (
=-0.169 p=0.000 )
- 44 -
4-5
Panel A p
(N=3,012) UE ADA UE×ADA
CAR_-0, 8 0.093 0.000 0.005 Fixed effects
CAR_0, 10 0.095 0.000 0.000 Fixed effects
CAR_-1, 6 0.028 0.028 0.016 Fixed effects
CAR_-1, 7 0.031 0.010 0.035 Fixed effects
CAR_-1, 8 0.022 0.001 0.019 Fixed effects
CAR_-1, 9 0.031 0.000 0.005 Fixed effects
CAR_-1, 10 0.025 0.000 0.003 Fixed effects
CAR_-2, 6 0.025 0.031 0.021 Fixed effects
CAR_-2, 7 0.027 0.012 0.039 Fixed effects
CAR_-2, 8 0.019 0.002 0.023 Fixed effects
CAR_-2, 9 0.027 0.000 0.007 Fixed effects
CAR_-2, 10 0.022 0.000 0.003 Fixed effects
Panel B
(N=1,444) UE ADA UE×ADA
CAR_-1, 6 0.005 0.044 0.103 Fixed effects
CAR_-2, 6 0.003 0.055 0.075 Fixed effects
CAR_-3, 6 0.000 0.026 0.020 Fixed effects
Panel B
(N=1,568) UE ADA UE×ADA
CAR_0, 6 0.059 0.004 0.000 Random effects
CAR_0, 7 0.071 0.009 0.000 Random effects
CAR_-1, 3 0.042 0.020 0.021 Random effects
CAR_-1, 4 0.026 0.010 0.011 Random effects
CAR_-1, 5 0.042 0.004 0.002 Random effects
CAR_-1, 6 0.012 0.002 0.000 Random effects
CAR_-1, 7 0.016 0.004 0.000 Random effects
CAR_-1, 8 0.045 0.006 0.000 Random effects
CAR_-1, 9 0.029 0.006 0.000 Random effects
CAR_-2, 6 0.032 0.000 0.000 Random effects
CAR_-2, 7 0.038 0.002 0.000 Random effects
CAR UE ADA UE×ADA
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F
OLS (F=1.30, p=0.000) Hausman
(H=14.93, p=0.186)
(UE) (CAR_-2, 6)
( =7.564 p=0.032)
(Kormendi and Lipe, 1987 2005) (ADA)
(CAR_-2, 6) ( =-11.444 p=0.000 )
(UE×ADA) (CAR_-2, 6) ( =79.267
p=0.000)
(
=-2.555 p=0.002)
(
)
(OCF) (CAR_-2, 6)
( =7.833 p=0.000)
(MH)
( =0.145 p=0.099)
(NB)
( =0.294 p=0.094 )
- 47 -
CAR (-2, 6) CAR (-1, 6)
t p t p t p t p t p t p
constant -12.376 -3.736 0.000 -12.328 -3.873 0.000
UE 4.960 2.247 .0246 10.059 2.930 0.003 7.564 2.145 0.032 4.577 2.199 0. 028 9.310 2.812 0.005 8.449 2.514 0.012
ADA -5.983 -2.157 0.031 9.892 1.920 0.055 -11.444 -3.381 0.000 -5.809 -2.197 0.028 10.008 2.014 0.044 -10.111 -3.131 0.002
UE×ADA 30.459 2.315 0.021 -33.917 -1.784 0.075 79.267 3.733 0.000 30.097 2.400 0.016 -29.846 -1.628 0.104 76.419 3.774 0.000
SG -0.963 -2.392 0.017 -0.107 -0.217 0.828 -2.555 -3.091 0.002 -0.933 -2.433 0.015 0.051 0.107 0.915 -2.955 -3.749 0.000
LEV 0.122 1.199 0.231 0.080 0.454 0.650 0.070 0.723 0.469 0.125 1.290 0.197 0.089 0.524 0.600 0.080 0.858 0.391
OCF 2.212 1.227 0.220 9.417 3.010 0.003 7.833 3.413 0.000 2.104 1.225 0.221 10.113 3.353 0.000 6.094 2.778 0.006
MH -0.028 -0.190 0.850 0.182 0.720 0.472 0.145 1.649 0.099 0.021 0.146 0.884 0.135 0.556 0.578 0.164 1.948 0.051
IH -0.048 -2.007 0.045 -0.169 -4.082 0.000 0.008 0.555 0.579 -0.036 -1.571 0.116 -0.145 -3.617 0.000 0.009 0.672 0.502
BN 0.364 1.241 0.215 0.396 0.816 0.415 0.294 1.673 0.094 0.213 0.764 0.445 0.275 0.588 0.557 0.284 1.684 0.092
SIZE 1.196 1.468 0.142 1.829 1.382 0.167 0.610 2.584 0.010 0.721 0.950 0.342 1.864 1.460 0.144 0.604 2.667 0.008
β -2.004 -2.484 0.013 -2.161 -1.605 0.109 -0.172 -0.213 0.831 -1.676 -2.179 0.029 -1.644 -1.266 0.206 0.017 0.022 0.982
N 3,012 1,444 1,568 3,012 1,444 1,568
F(p) 1.37 (0.002) 1.17(0.017) 10.42(0.000) 1.37 (0.002) 1.14(0.038) 10.90(0.000
R2 0.295 0.483 0.072 0.295 0.478 0.075
Adj R2 0.080 0.07 0.065 0.080 0.059 0.068
Model Se-
lection Fixed effects Fixed effects Radom effects Fixed effects Fixed effects Radom effects
CAR UE ADA UE×ADA SG LEV
OCF MH IH NB SIZE β
- 51 -
(2009)
(2002)
(1994)
(2001)
(2008)
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