CBRFC Updates
description
Transcript of CBRFC Updates
Outline
• CBRFC Climate Services• ET project• Migration to CHPS• Status of HEFS efforts• Linkage to USBR mid-term probabilistic
Climate Services currently offered by River Forecast Centers-Partial List-
Water Supply Forecasts• Probabilistic forecasts for amount of spring melt in western USA• Forecasts issued at least monthly January through June• Support water management and drought decision making• Joint responsibility with NOAA/RFCs and NRCS/NWCC• wateroutlook.nwrfc.noaa.gov
Weather and Climate Analysis• Hourly, daily, and monthly analysis – both real time and retrospective• In situ and remote sensing data merged through manual QC process• Weather and climate datasets downscaled to basin scales• Mosaic precip analysis webpage (water.weather.gov/precip) one of NWS’s most popular
Peak Flow Forecasts• Probabilistic forecasts snowmelt peak flow in western USA• Forecasts issued at least monthly March until peak flow occurs• Support water management and emergency management decision making• www.cbrfc.noaa.gov for example
Stakeholder Decision Support• Established working relationships with many major water agencies• Many stakeholders receive climate services already from RFCs• Operational center staffed 365 days per year with real time support• Water Supply Webinars
Potential New Climate Services based on RFC capabilities
Climate Change Hydrologic Sensitivity • RFCs have well calibrated models covering every major watershed in the country. These models may be used to assess basin sensitivities to modified temperatures and/or precipitation
Water Resources Outlook• RFC models simulate real time soil moisture, snow, and streamflow• Streamflow forecasts – coupled with weather and climate forecasts - may be used to generate outlooks for water resources nation wide
Hydrologic Expertise• NOAA envisions RFCs becoming centers for water resources information• Hydrology, climate, and meteorology expertise at RFCs is extensive and applied
What’s Needed?• Historical RFC focus on flood forecasting is important and needs to continue• RFCs need to be engaged in the dialogue on climate and drought services.
2. Dynamic evaporative demand in the Sac-SMA model across CBRFC•replacing the current, static ET driver of the Sac-SMA model with a physically based,accurate, and temporally dynamic driver;•improving ET-treatment in river forecast operations;•improving streamflow forecast skill at water-supply seasonal (and daily) time-scales;•CBRFC operational questions:
- calibration of basins: parameter choice, optimizations scheme, time-scales, skill statistic- water supply forecast time-scales // seasonal volumes- daily operations // low flows, peak flows, peak-flow timing
-incorporation of seasonal drivers (e.g., Climate Forecast System)
1. Forecasting reference crop ET (ETrc) across NWS Western Region• providing ETrc forecasts that are scientifically sound, web-disseminated, fine-resolution,
accurate, and daily-to-weekly;• CBRFC developed a 30-year, CONUS-wide climatology to add value to these forecasts;• primarily for use in agriculture – irrigation scheduling• significant promise in drought analyses:
• ongoing drought monitoring and forecast drought development• examining historic drought trends• as a US Drought Monitor input:
• monitor currently has no explicit ET-related input• its PDSI input has a temperature-based Ep driving its bucket model
• also useful for utility districts’ demand-planning; trans-mountain diversions;reservoir operations; hydrologic science community
ET project goals and accomplishments:
Forecasting ETrc
Climatology surface, specific to date and tailored to WFO
Forecast surface,generated at WFO
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NLDAS: North American Land Data Assimilation System
• Air temperature at 2 m• Specific humidity at 2 m• Down-welling SW radiation• Down-welling LW radiation• Station pressure• Wind speed at 10 m
• Hourly input• Daily output• CONUS-wide•0.125-deg (~12 km) resolution
NDFD: National Digital Forecast Database
• Air temperature at 2 m• Dewpoint temperature at 2 m• Wind speed at 2 m• Areal extent of cloud cover
• Hourly, 3-hourly, or 6-hourly time-steps• 2.5-km / 5-km resolution HRAP grid
FRET website for Sacramento, CAhttp://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecast/evap/FRET/FRET.php?wfo=sto
Streamflow at Animas R,1983
Mean annual Epan, 1980 -2009Dynamic evaporative demand across CBFC: Animas River test-basin
mean, max, min daily Epan (1980-2009)
current, static E0
Epan across Animas R, 1980 - 2009 (& 1983)
1983 daily Epan
Community Hydrologic Prediction System - CHPS
• New modeling structure at all RFCs• Facilitate testing new model components• Facilitate research to operations• More insight into the model used
• Implementation complete by end of 2011
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Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS)Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS)Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System
Atmospheric Ensemble Pre-Processor
Hydrologic Ensemble Post-Processor
Hydrology and Water Resources Models
Hydrology and Water Resources Ensemble Product Generator
Parametric Ensemble Processor
Land Data Assimilator
EnsembleForecastProducts
H
Least Likely
Forecast Legend
Likely H
Least Likely
Forecast Legend
Likely H
Least Likely
Forecast Legend
Likely
Most Likely
_Median Fcst
? ObservedStage
Flood Stage
Verification Products
Forecasters Users
Ensemble Verification
System
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Current HEFS Test Basins Current HEFS Test Basins at NWS River Forecast Centersat NWS River Forecast Centers
Pre-Processor, Post-Processor, HMOS
Data Assimilation
Example Testing at
CBRFC
Lake Powell inflow forecast
A 30-day ensemble forecast for entire upper basin is generated daily (219 points)
Based on GFS reforecast and CFS ensembles
Coordinated Forecast(single number)
24 month study
Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System
Mid-Term Probabilistic Model
Stakeholders
Seasonal water resources forecasting and modeling in the
Colorado Basin circa 1980 - 2010
Seasonal water resources forecasting and modeling in the
Colorado Basin Near future
CBRFC and the USBR Mid-Term Probabilistic Model (MTPM) Development
•USBR UC and LC regions developing a probabilistic operations model to augment (and possibly replace) the 24 month study•MTPM will produce probabilistic forecasts for major USBR reservoir operations based on:
•Objective operating criteria•CBRFC ensemble forecasts•Multiple model iterations (one per each CBRFC ensemble member – currently 30 members)
•MTPM and CBRFC ESP/HEFS will support risk based decision making•CBRFC began providing ESP forecasts to USBR in Oct 2010•CBRFC will work with USBR as CBRFC transitions to HEFS
Bottom line…• CBRFC is an operational
office. This means:– Staffed and issue forecasts
365 days/year– Support stakeholder
decisions and maintain relationships with stakeholders
– Conduct and facilitate R&D to improve forecasts and products February Water Supply Forecast
CBRFC and NIDISCBRFC ForecastsClimate and
Weather Forecasts
Hydro Models
Research
Decision Makers
Value
NIDISNIDIS
NIDIS
Michelle Schmidt
CBRFC Hydrologist in ChargePhone: 801.524.5130
Email: [email protected]
Feedback, Questions, Concerns always welcome….
www.cbrfc.noaa.gov