CBRFC May 2014 Water Supply Webinar May 6, 2014 Greg Smith These slides: .
CBRFC February 2014 Water Supply Webinar
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Transcript of CBRFC February 2014 Water Supply Webinar
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CBRFCFebruary 2014
Water Supply Webinar
February 6, 2014
Greg Smith
These slides: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/present/present.php
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February Water Supply Webinar
• Components of the water supply forecast• January weather• Current snow conditions• Water supply forecasts• Upcoming weather
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Components of a Water Supply Forecast
• Current soil moisture– Baseflow– Water stored within the soil (Tension Water)
• Current snow • Future precipitation / temperature
– 5 day precipitation, 10 day temperature– Past day 5, use 30 years (1981-2010) of
observed precipitation and temperature
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Widespread 200 percent of average with a few stations of 300-400 percent. (14 inches in the upper Granby). Resulted in a large increase in soil moisture.
September 2013 Precipitation
Yampa
Colorado Headwaters
Gunnison
San Juan
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Near normal Upper Colorado and well below Great BasinModeled Baseflow
This agrees fairly well with the USGS web site.
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Well above Upper Colorado and well below Great Basin
How will this affect water supply forecasts?
Positive effect on the upper Colorado
Negative affect on the Great Basin and Lower Colorado
Modeled Soil Moisture
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Upper ridge over west coast with generally dry northwest flow over the intermountain west.
A few storms clipped the northeastern portions of the CBRFC area(upper Colorado and Little Snake headwaters)
January 2014 Upper Air Pattern
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January Precipitation
January Precipitation – contributing areas
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January Precipitation
January Precipitation – above 6500 feet
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Seasonal PrecipitationOctober - January
Seasonal Precipitation – contributing areas
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Seasonal Precipitation – above 6500 feet
Seasonal PrecipitationOctober - January
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SnowJanuary 6th Snow February 5th Snow
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The reason is an early start of the accumulation season
Colder than averageOctober
October Temperature
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Basin Snow Groups: Better than 2013
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Basin Snow Groups: Worse than 2013
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February 1st Water Supply Forecasts
Lake Powell: 7.25 MAF / 101%
Flaming Gorge: 815 KAF / 83%
Navajo Res: 660 KAF / 90%
Blue Mesa: 755 KAF / 112%
Colorado-Cameo: 269 KAF / 114%
Yampa-Deerlodge:148 KAF / 119%
Weber-Oakley: 84 KAF / 71%
Virgin-Virgin: 31 KAF / 53%
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Water Supply Forecast TrendChange in the forecast % of average between Jan 1st and Feb 1st
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February 1st Water Supply Forecasts
Little Colorado: 15%
Gila: 45%
Salt: 40%
Feb-May % of Median
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10 %30%50%70%90%
Feb 1st Official Forecast
Daily Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) Model Run & Official Forecast
Available at: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov Select: Water Supply Click: Point of Interest
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ESP before and after the storm Jan 31-Feb 2
Daily ESP Guidance & Official Forecast
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First of the Month Storm
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Future Weather: The weather pattern has changed
January 2014 Early February 2014
High pressure ridge has been replaced by a more moist zonal flow
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5-Day Precipitation Forecast – Input to our Model
Maximum of 2.5-3.5 inches possible:
Upper GreenUpper BearYampa/Little Snake
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Precipitation ProbabilitiesClimate Prediction Center
February 11-15 February 13-19
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
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Long Term Precipitation OutlookClimate Prediction Center
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
February 2014 February-March 2014
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• Soil Moisture Impacts– Positive in much of the Upper Colorado– Negative in the Great Basin / Lower Colorado
• Snow – two vastly different situations • Forecasts
– Above average Yampa, Colorado above Cameo, Gunnison– Near to slightly below San Juan– Below average Great Basin, Duchesne, Virgin, Lower Colorado
• Weather: Pattern is more favorable– Timing, amount, and location of precipitation will vary but favors far
northern areas in the near future– No strong climate signal (ENSO neutral to continue into summer)
Summary
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2014 Forecast Webinar ScheduleMarch 6 at 1pm MT April 7 at 1pm MT May 6 at 1pm MT June 5 at 1pm MT
Registration available:www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/news/wswebinar2014.html
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• Basin focal points / forecasters:– Brenda Alcorn (Upper Colorado)– Ashley Nielson (Green + Yampa / White)– Greg Smith (San Juan + Gunnison + Dolores)– Paul Miller (Great Basin – Bear, Weber, Provo, Six-Creeks/Jordan)– Tracy Cox (Lower Colorado + Virgin + Sevier)
• Other key staff members:– Michelle Stokes (Hydrologist In Charge)– Kevin Werner (Service Coordination Hydrologist)– John Lhotak (Development and Operations Hydrologist)– Craig Peterson (Calibrations, Operations lead, etc)– Cass Goodman (IT Support, web development, etc)– Stacie Bender (Hydrologist)– Brent Bernard (Hydrologist)
Please contact us with any specific questions