CBRFC April 2010 Water Supply Webinar
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Transcript of CBRFC April 2010 Water Supply Webinar
CBRFCApril 2010
Water Supply Webinar
10am, May 7, 2010
Kevin Werner
These slides: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/present/present.php
PLEASE MUTE YOUR PHONES
Outline
• April Weather Review
• Snow States• Weather / Climate
forecast• Water Supply
Forecasts• Peak Flow Forecasts
Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/pub2/map/html/cbrfc.3.2009.html
Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/precip/qpe/mapsum/mapsum.cgi??cbrfc?M?2009?02
Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?scon=checked
Snow:Apr 6 (above)May 6 (right)
Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open
Snow: Upper Green Basin (above Flaming Gorge)
Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open
Snow:Colorado Mainstem (above
Cameo)
Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open
Snow:San Juan Basin
Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open
Snow:Bear River
Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open
Snow:Six Creeks in Salt Lake County
Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/station/sweplot/sweplot.cgi???open
Snow:Lower Colorado
Web Reference: Waterwatch.usgs.gov
Last 5 days…
Web Reference: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/RFC_Precip/
Forecast Precipitation
Web Reference: www.hpc.noaa.gov
• Dry for the weekend• Storm pattern expected for early next week for northern half of basin.
Forecast Precipitation:Next Week’s Storm
Storm pattern centered on Monday / Tuesday (May 10-11).Total precipitation amounts up to 1.5 inches
El Nino Update
Web Reference: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov and iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO
Web Reference: http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/climate/climoForecasts.cgi
Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked
May 1, 2010Water Supply Forecasts
Highlights:• Some improvement particularly in northern Great Basin, parts of Green and upper Colorado• Improvements on the order of 5-10% from April storm activity• Gunnison, San Juan, and southern Great Basin essentially unchanged from April
Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked
Web Reference: waterwatch.usgs.gov
Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked and waterwatch.usgs.gov
Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked and Waterwatch.usgs.gov
Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked
Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked
Lake Powell SWE vs Inflow• Below is a scatter plot of the % average of the snow water equivalent for this index for April 7 and the %
average of the April-July volumes for the years 1987-2009. As you can see by the diagonal line, the snow index is not necessarily a good indicator of run-off volume. In fact, as the % average snow decreases the resulting volume becomes much less. This is likely due to losses such as sublimation, evaporation, and bank storage which can become more pronounced in drier years. Our ESP model (see below) takes these, and other hydrologic factors, into consideration. Plugging this year’s current index value into the equation gives a result of 62%, or 4.9 maf.
Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked and waterwatch.usgs.gov
Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?wcon=checked and waterwatch.usgs.gov
Online Publication
Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/pub2/map/html/cpub.php
May 1, 2010Peak Flow Forecasts
Still in developmentComing Soon (probably later today)
• Low flood risk potential in upper basin• Likely peak flows have increased (up to ~15%) since April•Weather patterns over the next month will greatly influence actual peak flows
Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?pcon=checked
Web Reference: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapm.php?pcon=checked
Email Updates: Automatic email update customized to what you need.
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/govdelivery.html
More Resources• www.cbrfc.noaa.gov• Wateroutlook.nwrfc.noaa.gov
• Podcast versions of webinars available (CBRFC homepage -> podcasts
• Tentative June water supply & peak flow webinar: 1pm June 7• Separate Peak Flow Forecast webinar as required or requested
• 2010 forecast verification webinar and 2011 look ahead webinars will be scheduled in October / November
CBRFC Open House
• Objective: Improve understanding / communication of forecast process and forecast usage
• August 18, 2010– Lower Basin Focused section: Aug 19– Upper Basin Focused section: Aug 17
• Salt Lake City, UT• More details to come• www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/openhouse.html
Kevin Werner
CBRFC Service Coordination HydrologistPhone: 801.524.5130
Email: [email protected]
Feedback, Questions, Concerns always welcome….