CBO's Economic Projections
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Transcript of CBO's Economic Projections
Congressional Budget Office
Presentation at the NYU Stern Economic Outlook Forum New York City, New York
Wendy Edelberg Assistant Director, Macroeconomic Analysis
CBO’s Economic Projections
September 8, 2015
CO NGRES S IO NA L BUDGE T O F F IC E 1
CO NGRES S IO NA L BUDGE T O F F IC E 2
Growth of Real GDP
CO NGRES S IO NA L BUDGE T O F F IC E 3
Contributions to the Growth of Real GDP
CO NGRES S IO NA L BUDGE T O F F IC E 4
Real Total Compensation of Employees
CO NGRES S IO NA L BUDGE T O F F IC E 5
Business Investment
CO NGRES S IO NA L BUDGE T O F F IC E 6
Household Formation
CO NGRES S IO NA L BUDGE T O F F IC E 7
Growth of Trade
CO NGRES S IO NA L BUDGE T O F F IC E 8
CO NGRES S IO NA L BUDGE T O F F IC E 9
Rates of Short- and Long-Term Unemployment
CO NGRES S IO NA L BUDGE T O F F IC E 10
Underuse of Labor
CO NGRES S IO NA L BUDGE T O F F IC E 11
Employment Shortfall
The employment shortfall is the number of people who would be employed if the unemployment rate equaled its rate in December 2007 (the light blue bars) and if the labor force participation rate equaled its potential rate (the dark blue bars).
CO NGRES S IO NA L BUDGE T O F F IC E 12
The Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment
CO NGRES S IO NA L BUDGE T O F F IC E 13
Labor Force Participation Rates
CO NGRES S IO NA L BUDGE T O F F IC E 14
Hourly Labor Compensation
CO NGRES S IO NA L BUDGE T O F F IC E 15
CO NGRES S IO NA L BUDGE T O F F IC E 16
GDP and Potential GDP
CO NGRES S IO NA L BUDGE T O F F IC E 17
Inflation
CO NGRES S IO NA L BUDGE T O F F IC E 18
Forecasts of Interest Rates by CBO, the Federal Reserve, and Federal Funds Futures
CO NGRES S IO NA L BUDGE T O F F IC E 19
Interest Rates
CO NGRES S IO NA L BUDGE T O F F IC E 20
Nominal and Real 10-Year Treasury Notes
*Calculated using the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
CO NGRES S IO NA L BUDGE T O F F IC E 21
Spread Between 10-Year Treasury Notes and 3-Month Treasury Bills
CO NGRES S IO NA L BUDGE T O F F IC E 22
Interest Rates on 10-Year Treasury Notes