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Transcript of CB Predictor 1 - Predictor User...¢  CB Predictor User Manual 1 1 Welcome to CB...

  • CB Predictor™ 1.6 User Manual

  • This manual, and the software described in it, are furnished under license and may only be used or copied in accordance with the terms of the license agreement. Information in this document is provided for informational purposes only, is subject to change without notice, and does not represent a commitment as to merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose by Decisioneering, Inc.

    No part of this manual may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, for any purpose without the express written permission of Decisioneering, Inc.

    Written, designed, and published in the United States of America.

    To purchase additional copies of this document, contact the Technical Services or Sales Department at the address below:

    Decisioneering, Inc. 1515 Arapahoe St., Suite 1311 Denver, Colorado, USA 80202

    Phone: +1 303-534-1515 Toll-free sales: 1-800-289-2550 Fax: 1-303-534-4818

    © 1988-2006, Decisioneering, Inc.

    Decisioneering® is a registered trademark of Decisioneering, Inc.

    Crystal Ball® is a registered trademark of Decisioneering, Inc.

    CB Predictor™ is a trademark of Decisioneering, Inc.

    OptQuest® is a registered trademark of Optimization Technologies, Inc.

    Microsoft® is a registered trademark of Microsoft Corporation in the U.S. and other countries.

    FLEXlm™ is a trademark of Macrovision Corporation.

    Chart FX® is a registered trademark of Software FX, Inc.

    is a registered trademark of Frontline Systems, Inc.

    Other product names mentioned herein may be trademarks and/or registered trademarks of the respective holders.

    MAN-CBPM 010600-2 4/25/06

  • Contents

    Welcome to CB Predictor™ Who should use this program? ................................................................. 1 How this manual is organized .................................................................. 2

    Additional resources........................................................................................ 3 Technical support ..................................................................................... 3 Training .................................................................................................... 3 Consulting ................................................................................................. 4

    Conventions used in this manual .................................................................... 4 Screen capture notes ................................................................................. 5 Example file names ................................................................................... 5

    Chapter 1: Getting Started with CB Predictor What is time-series forecasting? ...................................................................... 8 Shampoo Sales tutorial.................................................................................... 9 How CB Predictor works ............................................................................... 16 Toledo Gas tutorial ....................................................................................... 17

    Using regression ..................................................................................... 19 Selecting results ...................................................................................... 21 Previewing results ................................................................................... 24 Summary ................................................................................................. 26

    Chapter 2: Understanding the Terminology Forecasting .................................................................................................... 34 Time-series forecasting ................................................................................. 35

    Nonseasonal smoothing methods ........................................................... 36 Single moving average ..................................................................... 36 Double moving average .................................................................... 36 Single exponential smoothing (SES) ................................................ 37 Holt’s double exponential smoothing (DES) ................................... 37 Nonseasonal smoothing parameters ................................................ 38

    Seasonal smoothing methods ................................................................. 39 Seasonal Additive Smoothing .......................................................... 39 Seasonal Multiplicative Smoothing .................................................. 39 Holt-Winters’ Additive Seasonal Smoothing .................................... 40 Holt-Winters’ Multiplicative Seasonal Smoothing ........................... 41 Seasonal smoothing parameters ...................................................... 41

    Time-series forecasting error measures ........................................................ 42 RMSE ......................................................................................................42 MAD ........................................................................................................ 43 MAPE ......................................................................................................43

    Time-series forecasting techniques ............................................................... 43 Standard forecasting ............................................................................... 43

    CB Predictor User Manual i

  • 4Contents

    Simple lead forecasting .......................................................................... 44 Weighted lead forecasting ...................................................................... 44 Holdout .................................................................................................. 45

    Time-series forecasting statistics................................................................... 46 Theil’s U ......................................................................................... 46

    Multiple linear regression............................................................................. 46 Regression methods...................................................................................... 48

    Standard regression ............................................................................... 48 Forward stepwise regression .................................................................. 48 Iterative stepwise regression ................................................................... 49

    Regression statistics ...................................................................................... 50 R2 .................................................................................................. 50 Adjusted R2 ............................................................................................ 50 SSE .......................................................................................................... 50 F statistic ................................................................................................. 51 t statistic .................................................................................................. 51 p .............................................................................................................. 51 Durbin-Watson ....................................................................................... 51

    Historical data statistics ................................................................................ 52 mean ....................................................................................................... 52 standard deviation .................................................................................. 52 minimum ................................................................................................ 53 maximum ............................................................................................... 53 Ljung-Box statistic .................................................................................. 53

    Chapter 3: Forecasting with CB Predictor Overview........................................................................................................ 56 Creating a spreadsheet with historical data.................................................. 56 Loading and starting CB Predictor .............................................................. 57 Guidelines for using CB Predictor................................................................ 58

    Selecting historical data ......................................................................... 59 Automatic data selection .................................................................. 60 Manual data selection before starting CB Predictor ....................... 60 Manual data selection within CB Predictor ..................................... 60

    Specifying data arrangement ................................................................. 61 Viewing your historical data ................................................................... 61 Identifying time periods and seasonality ............................................... 63 Using multiple linear regression ............................................................ 64 Selecting time-series forecasting methods ............................................. 66

    Selecting error measures ................................................................. 69 Selecting forecasting techniques ..........