Catastrophe Readiness and Response: A New Course Almost Ready for Final Release

Catastrophe Readiness and Response: A New Course Almost Ready for Final Release

Rick Bissell, PhDBrian Maguire, DrPHDavid McEntire, PhD

Gavin Smith, PhD

CatastrophesCatastrophes CNN Report: Climate Change

“Catastrophic”1

- 300,000 excess deaths/year now due to climate change

- 300 million vulnerable to climate change in 2009. This number is set to double by 2030.2

1.http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/05/29/annan.climate.change.human/index.html

2. Global Humanitarian Forum: Human Impact Report: Climate Change --

The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis

New/Enhance Secondary CatastrophesNew/Enhance Secondary Catastrophes

Mass migration from newly uninhabitable lands becomes a catastrophe in itself.- So. Pacific island countries, heavily

populated lowland countries (Bangladesh, Netherlands, etc) and cities (NYC?, NOLA? Miami?)

- Desertification in Asia, Africa, Latin America and North America

Oldies but Goodies, Now More Frequent and PowerfulOldies but Goodies, Now More Frequent and Powerful

Hurricanes Flooding Drought Heat waves Epidemics/pandemics

Oldies but Goodies, Now More ComplexOldies but Goodies, Now More Complex

Networked and articulated electrical power systems

Networked and vulnerable information systems

Networked and articulated supplies delivery and management systems- See work of Lagadec, et al

Expiration of ResourcesExpiration of Resources Petroleum Natural gas Potable and irrigation water Food

Violent ConflictsViolent Conflicts Competition for scarce resources Changing world order Increasingly lethal weapons, with

wider distribution Rise of terrorism “Rogue” states

Cumulative Effects-> More CatastrophesCumulative Effects-> More Catastrophes

Loss of arable land and useable water leads to increased food shortage

Increased desperation leads to mass migration, violence, or both

Increased intensity of storms presents many direct dangers, but also can contribute to loss of arable land, useable water and food.

What to Do? What to Do? Mitigation: many worldwide attempts

to mitigate climate change and its effects

Preparedness:- Many European and Asian countries

preparing for direct effects.- Some intercontinental preparedness

activities (Lagadec, et al)- FEMA, three approaches

FEMA’s Three Approaches to Preparedness for Catastrophes

FEMA’s Three Approaches to Preparedness for Catastrophes

Scenario-based intensive planning for geographic regions, with traditional “top-down” plans and exercises.

Scenario-based intensive planning for geographic regions with “bottom-up” plans and exercises.

EMI course on catastrophe readiness and response.

ChargeCharge Develop a new course for upper

division undergraduates and graduate students on the tasks necessary for planning, preparedness for and response to catastrophes.

AssumptionsAssumptions Catastrophes are fundamentally

different from run of the mill disasters- Lack of immediate mutual aid- Affect interlocked systems of

communications, power, transport, food delivery, health care, national commerce

- Span multiple jurisdictions and levels of government; overwhelming complexity

- Response is not just more of the same

Assumptions - 2Assumptions - 2 Future EMs will face more

catastrophes and more severe ones Political authorities will depend on

EMs for guidance International assistance (US

receiving as well as US providing) will become more common among North Atlantic countries

Assumptions - 3Assumptions - 3 All-hazards planning is not up to

the task; scenario-specific planning is required to deal with hypercomplex events

Flexibility and unconventional responses will be even more important, and they can be learned and planned

ExpectationsExpectations Course instructors may not have

deep background in this field; instructor guidance needs to be comprehensive.

FEMA catastrophe planning provides good examples, but it is rapidly changing.

Students will need to do much background reading (10-15 hrs/wk).

Course StructureCourse Structure 15-week semester 3 credit hours 11 core sessions, 2 case studies, 1

tabletop exercise, 1 summary and final exam, and at least 3 add-on sessions

Each session has some kind of class exercise.

Designed for in-class; easily converted to online.

Sessions 1 & 2 Sessions 1 & 2 1. Course Introduction: Definitions,

Background, Differences Between Disasters and Catastrophes- Lead developer: Bissell- Status: Available for review and comments

2. Mechanisms of Past and Future Catastrophes- Lead developer: Bissell- Status: Available for review and comments

Sessions 3-5Sessions 3-5 Session 3: Variables and Relationships

- Lead developer: David McEntire- Status: Available for review and comments

Session 4: Ethics- Lead developer: Anna Schwab- Status: Will be available 1 July 09

Session 5: Political and Legal Issues- Lead developer: John Pine- Status: Available for review and comments

Sessions 6-7Sessions 6-7 Session 6: Social and Economic Issues

- Lead developer: Kevin Simmons- Status: Available for review and

comments Session 7: Logistics, Critical

Infrastructure and Public Health- Developers: Tricia Wachtendorf, Rick

Bissell, Drew Bumbak- Status: Available for review and

comments

Sessions 8-10Sessions 8-10 Session 8: Mass Relocation

- Lead developer: Anthony Oliver-Smith- Status: Available for review and comments

Session 9: Planning Strategies and Skills: Response- Lead developer: Brian Maguire- Status: Available for review and comments

Session 10: Planning Strategies and Skills: Recovery/Reconstruction- Lead developer: Gavin Smith- Status: Available for review and comments

Sessions 11-13Sessions 11-13 Session 11: Emergent Organizations and

Networks- Lead developer: Tricia Wachtendorf- Status: Available for review and comments

Session 12: NMSZ and New Catastrophe Planning Methods- Lead developers: Scott Wells, Jasmin Ruback- Status: Expected by July

Session 13: Case Study: Pandemic Flu- Lead developers: Bissell and Tom Kirsch- Status: Available for review and comments

Sessions 14-15Sessions 14-15 Session 14: Tabletop Exercise

- Lead developer: Myra Socher- Status: Available for review and

comments Session 15: Summary and Exam

- Lead developer: Bissell- Status: Expected by July

Add-on SessionsAdd-on Sessions Leadership

- Lead developer: TBA North Atlantic Collaboration

- Lead developer: Erwan Lagadec Catastrophe Mental Health / PTSD

- Lead developer: Jeff Mitchell

Institutional PartnersInstitutional Partners Center for Transatlantic Relations

& the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (Lagadec)

Questions???Questions???

Thanks!Thanks!

The Catastrophe Course Team

Contact: Bissell@umbc.edu