CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data B.V. Jackson, H.-S. Yu, P.P....
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Transcript of CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014 3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data B.V. Jackson, H.-S. Yu, P.P....
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
B.V. Jackson, H.-S. Yu, P.P. Hick, A. BuffingtonUniversity of California at San Diego, LaJolla, California, United States
Masayoshihttp://smei.ucsd.edu/ http://ips.ucsd.edu/
D. OdstrcilGeorge Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, United States
S. Hong, J. KimKorean Space Weather Center, Jeju, South Korea
M. TokumaruNagoya University, Japan
(Email: [email protected])
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data for Space Weather Forecasting
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
B.V. Jackson, H.-S. Yu, P.P. Hick, A. BuffingtonUniversity of California at San Diego, LaJolla, California, United States
Masayoshihttp://smei.ucsd.edu/ http://ips.ucsd.edu/
D. OdstrcilGeorge Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, United States
S. Hong, J. KimKorean Space Weather Center, Jeju, South Korea
M. TokumaruNagoya University, Japan
(Email: [email protected])
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data for Space Weather Forecasting
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
Data Sets/Analyses:Interplanetary scintillation (IPS) mainly from STELab, Japan, Thomson scattering from the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI)
Heliospheric Tomography:3-D Heliospheric Tomography (a fit to data – a time-dependent heliospheric view from a single observer location)
Speeds and densities from the IPS, vector fields from solar surface magnetic field maps
Current Applications:A technique used to drive 3D-MHD models – ENLIL
Future:Accurate, autonomous, continuously verifiable analyses.
Introduction:
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) analysis
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
STELab IPS array near Mt. Fuji
DATA
STELab IPS array systems
IPS Heliospheric Analyses (STELab)
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
IPS line-of-sight response
DATA
STELab IPS array systems
IPS Heliospheric Analyses (STELab)
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
New STELab IPS array in Toyokawa (3,432 m2 array now operates well – year-round operation began in 2011)
Current STELab Toyokawa IPS System
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
Other Current Operating IPS Radio Systems
The Pushchino Radio Observatory 70,000 m2 110 MHz array, Russia (summer 2006) Now named the “Big Scanning Array of the Lebedev Physical Institute” (BSA LPI).
The Ootacamund (Ooty), India off-axis parabolic cylinder 530 m long and 30 m wide (15,900 m2) operating at a nominal frequency of 326.5 MHz.
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
MWA (Western Australia)
Other and Potential Future IPS systems
(32 tiles are now operating. The full array 128 tiles can
obtain some IPS data.)
LOFAR (Western Europe)
(Some parts of the system are now operating - Richard Fallows, Mario Bisi are
involved. IPS/FR tests are ongoing.)
MEXART (Mexico) KSWC (South Korea)
Dedicated IPS 700 m2 327 MHz IPS radio 32 tile array,
Jeju Island
Dedicated IPS IPS 9,600 m2 140 MHz IPS radio array near Michoacan, Mexico
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
Sample outward motion over time
Heliospheric C.A.T. analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3D reconstruction.
IPS line-of-sight response Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339-360.
STELab IPS
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
IPS C.A.T. AnalysisBastille Day Event 14 July 2000
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31
IPS Density Remote View
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
IPS C.A.T. AnalysisBastille Day Event 14 July 2000
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31
IPS Density Ecliptic Cut
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
IPS C.A.T. AnalysisBastille Day Event 14 July 2000
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31
IPS Velocity Ecliptic Cut
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data Zhao, X. P. and Hoeksema, J. T., 1995, J. Geophys. Res., 100 (A1), 19.
http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Magnetic Field Extrapolation
1. Inner region: the CSSS model calculates the magnetic field usingphotospheric measurements and a horizontal current model.
2. Middle region: the CSSS model opens the field lines. In the outer region.
3. Outer region: the UCSD tomography convects the magnetic field along velocity flow lines.
Dunn et al., 2005, Solar Physics 227: 339–353.
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2012, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115.
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
UCSD IPS analysis
Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.
http://ips.ucsd.edu/
UCSD Web pages
Real-Time Forecasts Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115.
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
Forecast
Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.
http://ips.ucsd.edu/
One CME just passed 2013/05/14 4-6 UT increase by ~8 Np/cc
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115.
Fit to CELIAS data
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
One CME just passed 2013/05/14 4-6 UT increase by ~8 Np/cc
Forecasthttp://ips.ucsd.edu/
Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.
One CME just passed 2013/05/14 4-6 UT increase by ~8 Np/cc
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115.
Fit to CELIAS data
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
Pearson’s r correlation coefficient, day to day forecast verification Pearson’s r correlation coefficient, day to day forecast verification
Correlations (from UCSD forecast)
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2010, Solar Phys., 265, 245-256.
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115.
Five day behind “aftcast” One day ahead forecast
Velocity Density Velocity Density
Velocity matched to ACE, density matched to CELIASRemote velocity from STELab IPS three-site
Remote density from STELab IPS g-level
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.
http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Earth Radial and Tangential Magnetic Field
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2012, Adv. in Geosciences, (in press).
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
Pearson’s r correlation coefficient, day to day forecast verification
Correlations (from UCSD forecast)
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115.
Five day behind “aftcast” One day ahead forecast
Bradial Btangential Bradial Btangential
RTN coordinates
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data Current Forecasts
UCSD KSWC
http://ips.ucsd.edu/ http://www.spaceweather.go.kr/models/ips
Fit to CELIAS Fit to ACE L0
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
a comprehensive modelingToward
that Includes 3D-MHD
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
WSA-ENLIL-CONE model IPS Tomography model
Time-dependent 3D MHD model
inner boundary 21.5 solar radii to
adjustable outer boundary
Boundary condition from WSA model
3D kinematic solar wind model
Tomographically fit to ground-based
interplanetary scintillation (IPS) data
Solar wind /CME prediction models now operating at the Korean Space Weather Center
In operation
- RRA KSWC (Korea)
- UCSD CASS (USA)
- CCMC (USA)
24 CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
In operation
- RRA KSWC (Korea)
- NOAA SWPC (USA)
- CCMC (USA)
- Met office (United Kingdom)
- BOM IPS (Australia)
Ground observation of real time IPS
- STELab, Nagoya Univ. (Japan)
- RRA, KSWC (Korea)
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
KSWC Manpower for Model run• Total 7 staff working for ENLIL and IPS model run
(3 operators designated to model running and forecasting)
Forecasting Division Model Operator
Lee, J.H.
Park, S.R.
Yun, J.H.
ENLIL and IPS model run / forecast
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
KSWC ENLIL model outputGenerate the output of the WSA-ENLIL-Cone model as an image
Archive the output (image and binary), the most recent results are on the web.
home
rrajeju
enlil_images
Year(YYYY)
Month(MM)
Day(DD)
Run time(YYYYmmddHH)
latest
26http://www.spaceweather.go.kr/models/enlil
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
KSWC IPS model output- Run the IPS model everyday at 02:00 UT (11:00 KST)
Enlarge with animation
27http://www.spaceweather.go.kr/models/ips
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
IPS-Derived Boundaries for 3D-MHD Models (Yu, H-S., et al., 2012, AIP Conference Proc. 1500, pp. 147-152.)
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
• Subject: SOHO/LASCO HALO CME 140418ab (Kevin Schenk)UCMEO 93001 40418 1930/40418 61325 81742 1771/ 170// 333// 4120840418 61233 81318 33118 12036 1112/99999
(Frontsided)SOHO/LASCO observed two (2) HALO CMEs in close succession April 18, 2014. The events are first seen in C2 at 13:25 UT as a bright loop in progress over the Southwest. The front expands with extensions to a full HALO CME by 13:36 UT. The event continues into the C3 field beginning 13:30 to 17:42 UT leaving the C3 field of view at 30Rsun in the South.
April 18 2014 halo CME
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
UCSD IPS Data Fit ModelEcliptic Cuts
Kinematic Model Iterative Data Fit
ENLIL 3D-MHD forward modeling from a 21.0 Rs3D time-dependent IPS tomography boundary
Density
http://spaceweather.gmu.edu/projects/enlil/ipsbd/density.html
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
UCSD IPS Data Fit ModelEcliptic Cuts
Kinematic Model Iterative Data Fit
ENLIL 3D-MHD forward modeling from a 21.0 Rs3D time-dependent IPS tomography boundary
Density
http://spaceweather.gmu.edu/projects/enlil/ipsbd/density.html
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
bnd.nc
coho2bc
In-Situ Data
UCSD Model
UCSD Data
ucsd2bc
bnd.ncbnd.nc
wsa2bc
WSA Data
WSA Model
a3d2bc
bnd.nc
ENLILbnd.nccone2bc
At the KSWC there can be two different models (yellow) that can drive ENLIL (green) Computational system shares data sets (grey), uses couplers (blue)
ENLIL Model Drivers
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
SMEI Webpages - http://smei.ucsd.edu
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data All sky view to within 2º (7.5Rs) of the Sun
Cut-away and schematic Characteristics
Jackson,B.V., et al., 2004, Solar Phys., 225, 177-207.
Jackson,B.V., et al., 2010, Solar Phys., 265, 257–275.
SMEI heritage
ASHI – A Light-weight All Sky Heliospheric ImagerASHI – A Light-weight All Sky Heliospheric Imager
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
ASHI tests with a cooled CCD camera
Night skythroughput tests
Optic before diamond turning
Diamond turned optic
Optic stray light tests
Buffington, A., et al., 2009, Proc. of SPIE, Vol. 7438, 74380O-1-12, doi: 10.1117/12.825362
Jackson, B.V. et al., 2014, Space Weather Workshop, NOAA
ASHI – A Light-weight All Sky Heliospheric ImagerASHI – A Light-weight All Sky Heliospheric Imager
Now “baselined” on NOAA’s DSCOVR follow-on spacecraft
CASS/UCSD KSSS 2014
3D Analysis of Remote-sensed Heliospheric Data
IPS-ENLIL remotely-sensed analyses:
A ground-based technique. Can provide low-resolution velocity and density analysis, and accurate forecasts of time-variable heliospheric structure.
The IPS analysis can provide input to 3D-MHD models.Better, and more abundant IPS data, should be available in the near future.
Currently both the IPS and ENLIL with cone model inputs can complement one another.
In the future higher-resolution autonomous systems are available.
Summary: