Case Study: SyriaKeisuke Fujita, Taro Kimura, George

Chen

Syria

• Population of 22,530,746

• Leader: President Bashar al-Assad

• Muslim is not a state religion, but the president has to be one in the constitution

• Current civil war has ethnic divideso Government leaders

tend to be Alawi Muslims

o Opposition mostly Sunni Muslims

BackgroundOct. 1918 - British backed Arabs end 400 year Ottoman rule, take

Damascus

Jun. 1920 - Syria-Lebanon placed under French rule

1922 - Syria made an autonomous region

1925-26 - uprising against French rule

1936 - Syria independence, but France still has military and economic control

1949 - Adib al-Shishakhli takes power in 3rd coup of the year

1954 - army leads coup against Al-Shishakhli, returns power to civilian gov.

Mar. 1963 - coup by army officers - Amin al-Hafez becomes president, internal coup in 3 years and again in 1970

Mar. 1971 - Hafez al-Assd elected president

Background 21980 - Muslim uprisings in Aleppo, Homs, and Hama

Feb. 1982 - military suppresses Muslim uprising in Hama - human rights org. accuse military of killing tens of thousands of civilians

Tensions with Israel and helping US with Iraq

Jun 2000 - Assad dies, second son Bashar takes over

Sep. 2001 - parlimentarians and activists arresting begins (throughout rest of decade)

May 2004 - US sanctions Syria on supporting terrorism and allowing miltants to enter Iraq

May 2007 - dissident Kamai Labwani and writer Michel Kilo jailed - h.r. lawyer Anwar al-Bunni soon after

May 2010 - US renews sanctions despite thawing relations for terrorist support

Overview of the current situation in Syria

According to NY times, at this time...

40,000 deaths estimated more than 400,000 registered as refugee 1.2 million of internally displaced people 2.5 million Syrian need humanitarian aid

The course of the situation in Syria in 20111/26 2011

Inspired by similar events across the region, protests began against the ruling regime in Syria.

March 2011

Protest actions escalated across Syria. On 15 March, state security forces responded with violent repression.

4/21 2011

Although emergency which had been in effect for nearly 50 years law was lifted, Assad introduced a new executive order to restrict demonstration.

4/29 2011

The Human Rights Council adopted a resolution to condemn Assad's military actions to respond demonstrations

The course of the situation in Syria in 20116/8 2011

UK, France, Germany and Portugal circulated a draft resolution which condemned Syria, but Russia, China, India, South Africa, and Brazil hesitated to discuss it concerning excessive interference by the Security Council

6/24 2011

Europe Union imposed further economic sanctions on Syria

7/29 2011

A group of defected officers announced the formation of the Free Syrian Army (FSA)

August 2011

Islamic countries began to criticize Assad Government

The course of the situation in Syria in 20118/3 2011

The Security Council adopted a presidential statement which condemned Syria. This was the first action by the Security Council

8/23 2011

A coalition of anti-government groups was formed, the Syrian National Council.

10/4 2011

China and Russia vetoed a draft resolution, sponsored by France, Germany, Portugal and the UK, which condemned the Syrian crackdown on protestors. Brazil, India, Lebanon and South Africa abstained.

11/28 2011

Arab League imposed economic sanctions on Syria

Response from the UN in 2011

UNSC6/8 2011 the first draft resolution was submitted to the Security council and it

failed to pass

10/4 2011 the second draft resolution was submitted. it demanded Syria to cease violations of human rights, allow the full exercise of human rights and fundamental freedoms, cease the use of force against civilians,

Human Rights Council4/29 2011 it strongly condemned military response to peaceful demonstrations,

urged Syria to do so, and called upon release of political prisoners

General Assembly12/19 2011 it condemned the violence in Syria and called upon the Syrian

authorities to implement the Plan of Action of the League of Arab States

Plan of Action of the League of Arab States

1. Stop all acts of violence committed by any side in order to protect Syrian citizens.

2. Release all detainees arrested from the beginning of the crisis.

3. Withdraw all military equipment and artillery from cities and residential neighborhoods.

4. Allow Arab League-affiliated organizations as well as Arab and international media outlets full access to move freely in Syria to monitor the situation on the ground.

The course of the situation in Syria in 20122/4 2012

UNSC draft resolution condemning the violence in Syria was vetoed by China and Russia with all other Council members voting in favor

2/16 2012

The General Assembly adopted a resolution which additionally requested the Secretary-General to appoint a special envoy for Syria

2/29 2012

Kofi Annan was appointed as the UN-Arab League Joint Special Envoy for Syria

4/14 2012

Resolution 2042 was adopted and had authorised the deployment of 30 unarmed military observers to Syria and offered "six-point proposal"

4/21 2012

Resolution 2043 to authorize the establishment of United Nations Supervision Mission in Syria (UNSMIS) was adopted

Six point proposal by Annan-work with the Envoy to address the legitimate

aspiration and concerns of the Syrian People

-stop the fighting and achieve ceasefire under UN supervision

-ensure provision of humanitarian assistance

-release unjustly detained people

-ensure freedom of movement for journalists

-respect freedom of association and the right to demonstrate peacefully as legally guaranteed

The course of the situation in Syria in 20127/19 2012

A draft resolution under Chapter VII was vetoed by China and Russia with Pakistan and South Africa abstaining

7/20 2012

The Council adopted resolution 2059 renewing UNSMIS for a final period of thirty days and conditioning any further renewal on the cessation of the use of heavy weapons by the Syrian government and a reduction in violence by all sides

7/22 2012

The Arab League called on Assad to renounce power for a safe exit

8/2 2012

Kofi Annan announced his resignation as Special Envoy

8/3 2012

the General Assembly adopted a resolution deploring the Security Council’s failure to act on Syria and calling for a political transition (there were 133 votes in favour, 12 against and 31 abstentions)

8/17 2012 Lakhdar Brahimi was appointed as the Joint Special Representative for Syria

8/19 2012 The UNSMIS mandate expired and was not renewed

The course of the situation in Syria in 2012October 2012

UN-brokered ceasefire during the Islamic holiday of Eid al-Adha breaks down as government continues attacks.

11/11 2012

Several major opposition forces unite as National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces at meeting in Qatar, including the Syrian National Council

12/13 2012

The United States would formally recognize the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces as that country's legitimate representative

Response from the UN in 2012

UNSC・ Resolution 2042

It authorised the deployment of 30 military observers to Syria and called upon Syria to cease troop movements, all use of heavy weapons in population centers. It offered "six-point proposals"

・ Resolution 2043

It established United Nations Supervision Mission in Syria (UNSMIS) comprised by 300 unarmed military observers to monitor ceasefire.

・ Resolution 2059

It extended UNSMIS for a final period of 30 days

Response from the UN in 2012

UNSC

・ Draft resolution on 4 February in 2012five key aspects: an end to all acts of violence; release of detainees; withdrawal

of armed forces from civilian areas; guarantee of the freedom of peaceful demonstrations; and freedom of access to the UN, NGOs and human rights monitors. in the event of non-compliance, UNSC would consider further measures.

without any arms embargoes and sanctions on Syria

・ Draft resolution on 19 July in 2012under the chapter 7 of the UN Charter, it implied further measures would be

imposed in the case that Syria could not fulfill ceasefire and complete pullback from population centers.

without any arms embargoes and sanctions on Syria again

Response from the UN in 2012

General AssemblyA/RES/66/253

it condemned the violence in Syria, endorsed the Arab League’s 22 January on a Syrian political transition, and requested the Secretary-General to appoint a special envoy for Syria.

A/RES/66/253 B

it deplored the Security Council’s failure to act on Syria and called for a political transition

Human Rights CouncilA/HRC/RES/20/22

The Human Rights Council adopted this resolution which condemned the gross human rights violations and indiscriminate targeting of civilians in Syria by government authorities and the Shabiha.

Individual government responses

Turkey6/22 2012 a Turkish fighter was shot down

10/3 2012 a skirmish between borders happened

Turkey is one of the strongest countries on Syria

Russia1/8 2012 a fleet sailed into Syria

2/8 2012 the foreign minister talked with Assad

Russia persists in protection of Assad government

United States5/29 2012 deported diplomats

12/13 2012 recognized opposition party as formal representative of Syria

US (Obama) persists in trying to solve the problem by talks unless chemical weapons are not used

R2P Clauses

• Theoretical Stage - no action taken yeto even when clauses that enable embargoes and

sanctions were removed, major UN resolutions blocked

• Another check of R2P to guide international action

• Guatemalan and French Ministers of Foreign Affaris Harold Caballeros and Alain Juppé both referenceo "the obligation of all States to observe norms of

conduct in relation to their own populations"o "responsibility to protect its civilian population"

R2P - Just Cause -

• 26000 - 35000 civilians deado 4000-5000 rebel fighters

• 9500 Syrian regime forces

• 500 unidentifiable

• Loss of life, excessive force, ignoring international community

R2P - Proportional Means

• No direct interventiono loss of life continued for 2 years after initial protest

• Sanctions from U.S., E.U., and even Arab League but not directly from U.N.o blocked by Russia and China

R2P - Right Intention -

• Strong humanitarian motive for action

• Even League of Arab Nations critical of Syria

• Delays because legality and sovereignty, politicized situationo Mission, Russia's links to Syria - Tartus baseo General Assembly condemning Security Council's

on Feb. 4 and Jul. 9 Drafts

• Failure to act on "Uniting for Peace"

R2P - Right Authority -

• No intervention yet, so still respecting sovereignty of Syria via Art. 2o Effort to respect authority of Arab League and local

politicso UNSMIS and Arab League mission

• Generally a solid grounds for R2P interventiono legacy backlash of Libya and Arab Spring

• Failed to move promptly

R2P - Last Resort -

• Not applicable

• Use of resolutions and special U.S. Envoy UNSMIS

• Worked with local Arab leagueo vetoed resolutions by Russia and China

• Tensions have continued for two years ultimately still not acting to directly interfere with a dangerously tense situation for better or worse

R2P - Reasonable Prospects -

• General Assembly condemned the Security Council

• Support of Arab League

• Concerns about actual process and aftermatho comparison to Libya

Libya's aftereffects

• R2P still has tension from Libya where NATO authority overreached - similar to Bush-era concerns with Darfuro China's concern with regime change

• Possible need to reform Security Council for when dealing with mass atrocity

Syria Now - International positions

• EU tabling more severe measures - change embargo to supply rebels suggested by Britaino blocked - wait until Jan 28 for further discussion

• Recognition of Syrian National Councilo US, UK, France, Egypto 114 countries total

• Russia's support - concerned about rebels - Dec. 13

Syria Now - Locally

• Nov - Regime forces leave Kurdish areas, allowing Kurds to take over, overwhelmingly in peace

• Opposition setting up a framework to maintain state institutions for if al-Assad falls

• fighting continues - Opposition believes it doesn't need support now - Dec. 13

• al-Assad - chemical weapons - Scud missles - Dec. 12

-Security Council Report, Syria, [Online], [accessed 12/16 2012]

available from http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/syria/

-International Coalition for the Responsibility to Protect, Crisis in Syria, [Online], [accessed 12/16 2012]

available from

http://www.responsibilitytoprotect.org/index.php/crises/crisis-in-syria#back

-International Coalition for the Responsibility to Protect, UN Security Councils Fails to Uphold its Responsibility to Protect in Syria, [Online], [accessed 12/16 2012]

available from http://icrtopblog.org/2011/10/07/un-security-council-fails-to-uphold-its-responsibility-to-protect-in-syria/

-New York Times, Syria News, [Online], [accessed 12/16 2012]

availabe from http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/syria/index.html?8qa

-Evan Centanni, Political Geography Now, Syria Uprising Map: October 2012 (#7), [Online], [accessed 12/16 2012]

available from http://www.polgeonow.com/2012/10/syria-uprising-map-october-2012-7.html

-BBC, Syria profile - Timeline, [Online]. [accessed 12/16 2012]

avaiable from

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14703995

References

References 2-New York Times, Syria News, [Online], [accessed 12/16 2012]

availabe from http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/syria/index.html?8qa

-Evan Centanni, Political Geography Now, Syria Uprising Map: October 2012 (#7), [Online], [accessed 12/16 2012]

available from http://www.polgeonow.com/2012/10/syria-uprising-map-october-2012-7.html

-BBC, Syria profile - Timeline, [Online]. [accessed 12/16 2012]

avaiable from

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14703995

References 3- Vivienne Walt, Syria's Body Count: Meet the Exile Tracking the Death Toll

[Online]. [accessed 12/16 2012]

available from http://world.time.com/2012/11/13/syrias-body-count-meet-the-exile-tracking-the-death-toll/

Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/14/us-syria-crisis-eu-idUSBRE8BD0HN20121214

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/13/us-syria-crisis-usa-idUSBRE8BC1I820121213

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/15/us-syria-opposition-state-idUSBRE8BE0D320121215

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/14/us-syria-crisis-eu-idUSBRE8BD0HN20121214

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/13/us-syria-crisis-russia-idUSBRE8BC1AW20121213

Thank you for listening!!