Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only...

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Transcript of Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only...

Page 1: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Case StudiesCase Studies

Page 2: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Team of Experienced Brand Managers and Retailers who combine our talents and technological expertise to improve the profitability of our Customers.Our solutions simplify the complex world of Inventory and Labor Management by identifying and creating timely and actionable efficiencies for Brands and Retailers.Our patented tools and processes have been successfully utilized for over 20 years.

Who is Park City Group?Who is Park City Group?

Page 3: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

We Are Known By Those We ServeWe Are Known By Those We Serve

Page 4: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

DecisionSupportEngine

DecisionSupportEngine

Store LevelScan Data

Store LevelScan Data

Category Management

• Provide granular visibility• Reduce shrink and out-of-stocks• Increase sales• Improve assortment planning and clustering

• Improve promotional initiatives• Improve supplier collaboration

How PCG Fits Your BusinessHow PCG Fits Your Business

Category Review

Field Merchant

Store Manager

Department Manager

ExecutionPlanning

Park City Group

Decision Support Tools and Consulting

Decision Support Tools and Consulting

Analytic Tools and Consulting

Analytic Tools and Consulting

SynchronizeSynchronize

Operations

• Improve store-level forecasting• Improve production planning• Reduce shrink and out-of-stocks• Optimize labor scheduling• Improve ordering and inventory

control

Page 5: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

PHASE 1 Category

Management and Analytics

PCG Phased ApproachPCG Phased Approach

Item MovementCategory Analysis

Sales / Shrink ReportsPromotion Planning

Out-of-StocksAssortment Planning

PHASE 2Move In-Store to Operations

Forecasting

Production Planning

Shrink Management

PHASE 3 Adjust

Inventory and Ordering

PHASE 4 Align Labor

with Production

Perpetual Inventory

Computer Assisted Ordering

Order Consolidation Planning

Integrated Time & Attendance

Task Management

Labor Analytics

If Needed

If Needed

If Needed

Page 6: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Branded Produce ItemsBranded Produce Items

Regional SupermarketRegional Supermarket

Page 7: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Random Weight Produce Items Opportunity AssessmentRandom Weight Produce Items Opportunity Assessment

Promotional Strategy– Promotional Discount Levels: Running continual deep discount promotions

diluting customer value and producing diminishing returns– Promotional Frequency / Length of Promotional Time Period: Consumer

response dropped significantly in last week of 3 week promotions and stores continually experienced heavy shrink in 3rd week when not adapting to sales pattern

Operational Execution– Promotional Out-of-stocks: Promotional out-of-stocks ranging from .25 % to

21.91 %– Excessive shrink: Location specific trends of continual item specific excess

shrink

Assortment Plan Optimization– High category performance stores missing higher performance items– Items with low and negative performance trends– In process: Location specific - Increase distribution of high consumer

response items and decrease poor performance items

Page 8: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Random Weight Produce Items Action PlanRandom Weight Produce Items Action Plan

Promotional strategy adjusted– Decreased frequency of deep discount promotions– Decreased length of time for promotions

Targeted Shrink Reduction– Adjusted location specific ordering on highest shrink

cost items

Assortment Plan by Location – In process: Location specific - Increase distribution of

high consumer response items and decrease poor performance items

Page 9: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Random Weight Produce Items Results Current Rolling 13 Weeks YOYRandom Weight Produce Items Results Current Rolling 13 Weeks YOY

-21.51%-15.96%1.97%4.71%2.29%-2.32%YOY % Change

-12,361-7,2490.99%2.09%10,389-23,738YOY Change

57,46145,43349.92%44.31%454,1071,024,778Last year PTD

45,10038,18450.90%46.40%464,4971,001,040This Year PDT

ShrinkShrink

QtyGM %CTP %CTPSales13 Week• Increased Contribution 2.29 %• Improved Gross Margin by 1%• Targeted shrink reduction -16% in units -21.5% in cost

• Supplier promo funds reduced and profitability increased

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Sales CTP Shrink

This Year PDT

Last year PTD

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Promotional Strategy Year Over Year Performance ChangePromotional Strategy Year Over Year Performance Change

-10.95%13.29%58.16%101.22%104.70%-14.54%8.73%202.27%-3.67%32.07%27.23%Change %

-5.09%1111161.33%4171222278-6.42%6940489-0.12178274490110Change

46.44%8358732.29%412072127744.15%794666443.245558381800022LY PTD

41.35%9469893.62%829194355537.73%8640701333.127341112290132TY PTD

GM %GMShrink

%ShrinkShrink

QtyCTP %CTPOn SaleAve. Price

Units SoldSalesDate

Increased Promotional Activity at Lower Gross Margins Generating 8.73 % Increase in CTP Dollars

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Multiple Perishable Multiple Perishable DepartmentsDepartments

Regional SupermarketRegional Supermarket

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Regional Supermarket – 100+ Stores Opportunity Assessment and Action PlansRegional Supermarket – 100+ Stores Opportunity Assessment and Action Plans

Opportunity Assessment– SKU Rationalization

• 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink

– Assortment and Production Plan Execution• Random availability: Item selling frequency was proportionate to

production frequencyItems selling less than 80% of time were produced less than 75% of timeItems with lower selling frequency had 2 ½ times the shrink rate of higher frequency selling items

Action Plan– Train department managers in each store on use of ScoreTracker

and Profit Optimization Methodology– Targeted shrink reduction

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Regional Supermarket – 100+ Stores Results - Quarter Ending 10/1/06 YOYRegional Supermarket – 100+ Stores Results - Quarter Ending 10/1/06 YOY

YOY Contribution to Profit up $3,041,848

for These Four Departments

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Assortment Planning Assortment Planning and Labor Schedulingand Labor Scheduling

International SupermarketInternational Supermarket

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International Supermarket Opportunity Assessment and Action PlanInternational Supermarket Opportunity Assessment and Action Plan

Opportunity Assessment– Production Quality

• Stores not producing or maintaining shelf stock to quality standards– Assortment Plan

• Large percentage of Items have low or negative contributions• Stores unable to manage quality and availability of too many items

– Production Labor Staffing• Stores under-staffed to produce right products and quantity to drive

sales

Action Plan– Reduced assortment plan mix– Increased production staff by average of 3 personnel per store– Re-trained stores on production quality standards– Implemented Fresh Market Manager Production Planning and

ScoreTracker KPI reporting

Page 16: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

International SupermarketAverage Result Over 52 Week PeriodInternational SupermarketAverage Result Over 52 Week Period

Average sales of produced items up 20.04% since implementation of program.

Contribution to Profit up $103K USD per monthSales up $194k USD per monthNet cash flow after all costs, labor, software, consulting, personnel, hardware: $22,059 USD per month

In year two sales increases continue at +10%.

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Labor and Task ManagementLabor and Task Management

Regional CRegional C--Store ChainStore Chain

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Regional C-Store Opportunity AssessmentRegional C-Store Opportunity Assessment

Existing Schedules Not Achieving Customer Experience Objectives

– 15% and 18.7% in coverage gaps across the week– Branding strategy adversely effected by prime day parts gaps– Missing sales opportunities from peak opportunity periods

Missing Return on Labor Budget Investments– $742.5k to $1.172m annual savings– $370.2k to $512.5k annual additional unauthorized overtime savings

– $3,048 to $4,602 DAILY OPPORTUNITY COST

Page 19: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Current Scheduling Rules Not Meeting

Customer Experience Objectives – 18.7 %

Coverage Gaps During Week

Impacts BrandStrategy –Insufficient

Coverage During Breakfast

Sandwich Period

Out of Stock or Quality

Issues

Regional C-StoreOpportunity AssessmentRegional C-StoreOpportunity Assessment

Page 20: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Lost Opportunity Sales Lost Opportunity Sales Bakery & Meat DepartmentsBakery & Meat Departments

Regional SupermarketRegional Supermarket

Page 21: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Regional Supermarket – 40+ StoresOpportunity Focus FixRegional Supermarket – 40+ StoresOpportunity Focus Fix

Opportunity:Improve product availability and by store mix to increase missedopportunity sales.

Solution:Start with highest volume stores to provide consistent availability of highest per day performance items and monitor sales impact performance. Adjust mix by store as required and continue trial cycle with medium per day performance items.. Continue process with medium and lower volume stores.

Opportunity Value:Bakery/Bread Category - $1.7mMeat/Beef Category - $10.4m

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Regional Supermarket – 40+ Stores Bakery ObservationsRegional Supermarket – 40+ Stores Bakery Observations

Food Bank shrink is climbing dramatically and the Thrift program needs to be reviewed for extended hours to reduce the more expensive throwaway shrink.Forecasting and ordering for promotions and day-of-week, along with variations in store performance, are the largest contributors to excess shrink.

– Excess inventory load in early in week and at end of promotions is driving higher thrift shrink.

– Moving highest shrink performance stores to the corporate average shrink rate would add $90k to the bottom line.

– Many items are not sold routinely every day in the 76 possible selling days analysis period.

– Based on consistent availability, the potential sales opportunity gap at the average per day / per store sales performance is$1.7m per year.

Page 23: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Regional Supermarket – 40+ Stores Bakery Dept. Shrink $ by Type TrendRegional Supermarket – 40+ Stores Bakery Dept. Shrink $ by Type Trend

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

7/29/06 10/28/06 1/27/07 4/28/07 7/28/07

TOTALSHRINK$ THRIFT$ FB$ TRASH$

Significant increase in Food Bank shrink driving

up total shrink

Page 24: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Regional Supermarket – 40+ Stores Bakery Dept. Shrink PerformanceRegional Supermarket – 40+ Stores Bakery Dept. Shrink Performance

$22,4780.24%6.22%3.12%9.58%Grand Total

$1870.18%6.99%2.70%9.88%437

$3440.09%6.46%3.70%10.24%434

$2310.17%5.76%4.56%10.49%485

$2500.02%6.25%4.32%10.60%482

$3950.00%7.52%3.19%10.72%476

$2310.21%7.46%3.19%10.87%415

$5160.04%6.62%4.26%10.93%499

$6310.00%7.55%3.75%11.30%491

$6880.03%8.32%3.02%11.38%490

$1,0473.00%4.68%3.77%11.45%498

$1,3520.00%5.67%6.46%12.13%487

$1,2030.28%8.31%4.00%12.59%436

$1,7420.00%10.28%4.77%15.05%489

$10,0320.00%19.38%2.11%21.49%470

$3,6290.00%19.65%4.82%24.47%479

Excess Shrink $Trash RateFood Bank RateThrift RateTotal Shrink RateStore #

$90k per yearcan be saved by moving

worst shrink performance stores up to corporate

averageCorporate avg. shrink rate

Page 25: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Regional Supermarket – 40+ Stores Missed Sales Opportunity GapRegional Supermarket – 40+ Stores Missed Sales Opportunity Gap

$ 433,65143 15 $4.58 33 Grand Total

$ 15,072 37 11 $7.89 39 White House Rolls and Biscuit

$ 742 12 20 $3.79 64 Sour Dough Bread

$ 33,187 60 19 $1.28 16 Self Serve Rolls

$ 13,373 18 16 $5.31 58 Sandwich Rolls

$ 77,209 50 14 $3.73 26 Sandwich and Traditional Loav

$ 19,783 48 12 $3.07 28 French\Italian Bread

$ 24,449 34 16 $5.20 42 European\Crusty Bread

$ 8,736 18 18 $5.90 58 Dinner Rolls

$ 8,538 44 12 $4.19 32 Breakfast Loaves

$ 134,678 46 21 $4.92 30 Branded Breads

$ 97,884 39 11 $5.73 37 Artisan Breads

Opportunity Sales Gap

Avg. of OpportunitySales Gap Days

Per StoreAvg. Daily# Stores

Avg. SalesPer Day

Avg.#Days SoldSubcategory

$1.73m annual sales opportunity gap

Page 26: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Regional Supermarket – 40+ Stores Meat Department ObservationsRegional Supermarket – 40+ Stores Meat Department Observations

Shrink is running the same as prior year with Food Bank replacing declines in Thrift shrink.

Forecasting and ordering for promotions and day-of-week, along with variations in store performance are the largest contributors to excess shrink.

– Excess inventory load in early in week and at end of promotions is driving higher thrift shrink.

– Moving highest shrink performance stores to the corporate average

shrink rate would add $167k to the bottom line.– Many items are not sold routinely every day in the 76 possible

selling days analysis period.– Based on consistent availability, the potential sales opportunity gap

at the average per day / per store sales performance is$10.4m per year.

Page 27: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Regional Supermarket – 40+ StoresMeat Dept. Shrink by Day-of-WeekRegional Supermarket – 40+ StoresMeat Dept. Shrink by Day-of-Week

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT

Total Shrink $

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT

Total Thrift Food Bank Trash

Total Shrink $

Early week inventory load in generates highest thrift

WED – FRI. Probable causes are case packs, plus outs,

and/or store ordering accuracy

Shrink Rate

Page 28: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Regional Supermarket – 40+ StoresMeat Dept. Shrink PerformanceRegional Supermarket – 40+ StoresMeat Dept. Shrink Performance

$183,7150.04%0.73%0.79%4.80%6.36%Grand Total

$18,5560.16%0.53%0.79%5.24%6.72%438

$9,7960.00%0.42%0.93%5.38%6.75%499

$7,1270.00%0.48%0.86%5.56%6.90%485

$13,3760.00%0.51%0.64%6.03%7.18%439

$7,5010.00%1.81%0.41%5.25%7.48%479

$12,8200.00%1.49%1.08%5.00%7.57%487

$12,4090.02%0.84%1.35%5.70%7.92%490

$10,6580.03%0.81%1.03%6.11%7.98%492

$13,0200.00%0.60%0.72%6.72%8.03%434

$8,3890.01%3.76%0.79%3.52%8.08%476

$11,0620.07%0.45%0.78%6.89%8.19%496

$22,4660.00%0.15%1.72%6.43%8.30%437

$10,9140.00%0.61%0.96%6.76%8.32%489

$10,4630.00%0.42%0.83%7.10%8.36%436

$1,4180.07%1.51%0.72%7.18%9.48%415

$13,7420.55%0.78%1.10%7.34%9.77%495

Excess Shrink $Above CorporateAve. Shrink Rate

Trash %of Shrink

FB % ofShrink

Promo Thrift% of Shrink

Thrift %of Shrink

Total ShrinkRateStore #

$735k per yearcan be saved by moving

worst shrink performance stores up to corporate

averageCorporate avg.

shrink rate

Page 29: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Regional Supermarket – 40+ Stores Meat Dept. Opportunity GapRegional Supermarket – 40+ Stores Meat Dept. Opportunity Gap

$2,597,245443132Total

$97,869393637SERVICE CASE ANGUS

$56,11171245SERVICE CASE ALL NATURAL

$8,4327492ROUND ANGUS

$54,031345342RIBS SELECT BEEF

$61,663334343RIBS ANGUS

$212,397551221OTHER

$102,565401936NATURAL-MISC. CUTS

$305,218312145NATURAL ROUND

$257,553493327NATURAL RIBS

$298,720382738NATURAL LOIN

$74,513276749NATURAL GROUND BEEF

$84,155361840NATURAL- CHUCK

$456,920385938LOIN SELECT BEEF

$261,309392937LOIN ANGUS

$260,290332643GROUND ANGUS

$5,49974122CHUCK ANGUS

Potential MissedOpportunity Sales

Average of MissedOpportunity Sales

Days Per StoreAverage Sales

Per Day / Per StoreAverage # Days SoldSubcategory

$10.39m annualsales opportunity

gap

Significant missed selling days

Page 30: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Regional Supermarket – 40+ StoresTop 10 Missed Opportunity Sales ItemsRegional Supermarket – 40+ StoresTop 10 Missed Opportunity Sales Items

29232277$9869ANGUS GROUND ROUND 85% LEAN VGROUND ANGUS

292415132$2544SELECT T-BONE STEAKLOIN SELECT BEEF

29252317$14069SELECT NEW YORK STRIP STEAK VLOIN SELECT BEEF

292920412$9764SELECT RIB EYE STEAK VALU PACRIBS SELECT BEEF

293067131$3045SELECT PORTERHOUSE STEAKLOIN SELECT BEEF

293912565$2111BF ROUND EYE ROUND WHOLE SUBNATURAL ROUND

294774045$3831ALL NAT GROUND BEEF 95% LEAN

NATURAL GROUND BEEF

2923133949$16727USDA SELECT WHOLE BEEF TENDELOIN SELECT BEEF

291430946$1130CRCKD PEPPR&GRLIC SEASONED OTHER

292060957$1219BACON CHEDDAR SEASONED BURGEOTHER

Ave #Stores

MissedOpportunity

Sales

Average of Missed

OpportunitySales Days

AverageSales Per

Day

Average # Days

SoldNameSub-Category

Target opportunities for increasing availability and sales potential

Page 31: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Lost Opportunity / Lost Opportunity / Distribution Voids Distribution Voids

Branded Poultry for Branded Poultry for Regional SupermarketRegional Supermarket

Page 32: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Branded PoultryAnalysis ObservationsBranded PoultryAnalysis Observations

Branded Poultry YOY Sales are Up 19% although overall distribution is down over 20%.

– DC4 accounts for a significant portion of the distribution loss with a decline of over 60% in sales and distribution.

Extreme variations in number of stores selling and number of dayssold across items.

– DC7 average days sold across 22 branded items was 69% higher than DC4 with only 14 items.

– Minimal opportunity for branded products to grow premium pricingand margin opportunities.

Pro-rating average per store performance equals an outstanding $32m per year in opportunity sales.

A well balanced promotional strategy with consistent distribution and brand development is needed to increase sales and profits for Retailer and Supplier.

Page 33: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

-100.00%

-80.00%

-60.00%

-40.00%

-20.00%

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

PerdueChicken

PoultryMarinated

Private LabelChicken

Refig. PreparedDinner/Entree

FZPoultry/Poultry

Substitite

Grand Total

Sales Units On Sales Ave # Stores

Branded Poultry Total Stores YOY Performance ChangeBranded Poultry Total Stores YOY Performance Change

921,2835,542,9704,621,687Grand Total

172,292175,0082,717Poultry Substitute

4,279118,087113,807Prepared Dinner/Entree

146,405146,405Private Label Chicken

-26,942297,931324,873Poultry Marinated

625,2484,805,5394,180,290Branded Chicken

YOY ChangeSales TYSales LYCategory

19% Sales Increase Average Distribution

Down 20+%

19% Sales Increase Average Distribution

Down 20+%

BrandedChicken

Page 34: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Branded Poultry Distribution Elasticity During PromotionBranded Poultry Distribution Elasticity During Promotion

20%-65% Distribution Drop When

Not on Promotion

20%-65% Distribution Drop When

Not on Promotion

020406080

100120140160180

PER

DU

E H

NY

DIJ

ON

CH

CKN

PER

DU

EPO

PCO

RN

CH

ICKE

NPE

RD

UE

BOU

RBO

NC

HIC

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PER

DU

E BB

QC

HIC

KEN

PER

DU

EBN

LSBR

EAST

2829

PER

DU

E W

HL

CU

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2804

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SPLI

TBR

EAST

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RD

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BRST

TEN

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STYL

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DU

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BNLS

BREA

STPR

DU

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TOM

ATO

BASI

L ST

YPR

DU

E PP

TER

IYAK

IST

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# Promo Stores # Non-Promo Stores

BR

AN

DE

D H

NY

BR

AN

DE

D

BR

AN

DE

D

BR

AN

DE

D B

BQ

BR

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Page 35: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

8,289,631Total

465,188304,161161,027285130BRANDED JUMBO DRUMSST 2872

843,830594,411249,419561531BRANDED PP TOMATO BASIL STY

527,170254,503341716272,667542639BRANDED PP ITALIAN STYLE

556,957371,791185,166365439BRANDED JUMBO WINGS___2874

601,455280,049353322321,406523450BRANDED PP BNLS BREAST

571,904219,259402515352,645465788BRANDED WHOLE BIRD 2805

730,169235,300371514494,868544395BRANDED SPLIT BREAST 2806

403,844119,5031044919284,3414072120BRANDED BRST TENDERS 2836

3,094,4741,934,0461,160,4281054206BRANDED WHL CUT UP 2804

494,639177,3331224529317,3074184349BRANDED BNLS BREAST2829

Lost Opportunity

Sales#

StoresDays Sold

Daily Sales

Lost Opportunity

Sales#

StoresDays Sold

Daily Sales Total (LOS)

DC4DC7

Name

Branded Poultry Lost Opportunity Sales

$32+ Million Annual

Opportunity Gap

$32+ Million Annual

Opportunity Gap

Page 36: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Assortment PlanningAssortment PlanningBakery DepartmentBakery Department

International SupermarketInternational Supermarket

Page 37: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Bakery Department Assortment PlanningBakery Department Assortment Planning

ProblemAt an international retailer our Business Metrics Group discovered that only 32% of the assortment plan items were available on a consistent basis; 27% of the items were contributing less than 4% of total Contribution to Profit.

Solution / ResultsOver a 52 week period the assortment plan was rationalized resulting in a 20% Departmental Sales Increase and a10% Improvement in Contribution to Profit.

In year two sales increases continue at +10%.

Page 38: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Shrink Management Produce Shrink Management Produce and Deli Departments and Deli Departments

Regional Regional SupermarketSupermarket

Page 39: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

ProblemWith a 100 store regional chain in the Midwest we found significant opportunities to optimize assortment based on findings that some specialty items had very low sales numbers and high shrink levels.

Solution / ResultsBy focusing on excessive shrink levels we were able to Improve Contribution to Profit by $884,000 Annually.At the same chain by focusing on sales mix and shrink for the top 5 items in fresh berries we were able to generate a Contribution to Profit Improvement of $91,000 Annually.

Produce Department Shrink Management

Page 40: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Produce DepartmentPerformance by Sales MixProduce DepartmentPerformance by Sales Mix

519149062.375.53%43.01%24Low

51697692.296.50%41.99%51Med

41167942.2312.58%35.85%26High

Ave # CategoriesAve # SKUsAve SalesAve PriceAve Shrink %Ave CTP %# StoresSales % Index

Stores with a high sales mix 7+% higher shrink rate and 7+% lower CTP %

Page 41: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Produce Department Promotional PerformanceProduce Department Promotional Performance

-15%75%20%1.502.192479.5741476232.2308/14/05

26%124%53%1.502.193655.6153097963.5008/07/05

-6%83%27%1.502.192740.0943376587.6107/31/05

2%94%33%1.502.192955.5546046915.6607/10/05

24%137%62%1.502.193602.2256318445.0007/03/05

20%113%47%1.502.193484.9250557668.4906/26/05

CTP $ Lift %vs. non-promo

average

Sales Units Lift% vs. non-promo

average

Sales $Lift % vs.

non-promoaverage

PromoPrice

Reg PriceCTP $

SalesUnitsSales $Week Ending

Diminishing Return Running Promotion Consecutive Weeks – Driving Higher Shrink In Last Week

Page 42: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Shrink Management / DistributionAt a 105-store retailer in Canada we identified shrink improvement opportunities of $545,000 Annually by moving the worst performing stores to the chain average in their deli and bakery departments.

At the same chain we identified a sales opportunity that will add $4 Million Annually in the deli and bakery departments by isolating SKU’s that are not available for sale on a consistent basis in all stores.

Deli Department Shrink Management

Page 43: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Deli DepartmentSales Opportunity GapDeli DepartmentSales Opportunity Gap

Missed Opportunity Sales Days - 13 Weeks

01020304050607080

DELI ROTIS CHIX DELI SANDWICHES FROZEN WHEATBREAD

FROZEN WHITEBREAD

Grand Total

Possible Sales Days Days Sold Missed Sales Days

Ave. # Days between first

sales date and last sales date

across all stores

Average days sold across all stores reporting activity

Average days not sold across all stores reporting activity

Page 44: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Annual Shrink Reduction Opportunity

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

DELI ROTIS CHIX DELISANDWICHES

FROZEN WHEATBREAD

FROZEN WHITEBREAD

Grand Total

Deli DepartmentShrink Reduction OpportunityDeli DepartmentShrink Reduction Opportunity

Excess shrink $ in stores shrinking above

corporate average $544.5k per Year

Page 45: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Deli DepartmentSales Opportunity GapDeli DepartmentSales Opportunity Gap

Opportunity Sales - 13 Weeks

$0

$1,000,000

$2,000,000

$3,000,000

$4,000,000

$5,000,000

$6,000,000

DELI ROTIS CHIX DELI SANDWICHES FROZEN WHEATBREAD

FROZEN WHITEBREAD

Grand Total

Total Sales $ Opportunity Sales $

Total category sales all stores

Opportunity sales gap all stores. $994k per 13 week period

Page 46: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Shrink and Assortment Shrink and Assortment Analysis Analysis –– Fresh ItemsFresh Items

International Convenience International Convenience StoreStore

Page 47: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

C-Store Fresh Food ItemsNew Market AnalysisC-Store Fresh Food ItemsNew Market Analysis

New Market Analysis– First time opportunity of an international market with high volume,

high quality fresh food items in a market with rapid product turnover and new product availability.

– Multiple daily deliveries with smaller item counts allowed for tighter controls of perishable shelf-life –product analysis by time duration categories

• 16, 24, 30, 48 and 72 Hour Shelf Life categories– Elected to analyze data based on shelf life for an 8 week test

period. – In lieu of active Point-of-Sale data, the transactional sales data was

entered into a spreadsheet for use.• Transaction data included item sales• Reported shrink (making products unavailable for sale to the customer

due to spoilage or damage or loss)– Recommendation for ordering more or ordering less were provided

each week of the test trial period– 24 Weeks of data were used for comparison purposes (16 Weeks

prior to the 8 Week test)

Page 48: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

C-Store Fresh Food ItemsOpportunity AssessmentC-Store Fresh Food ItemsOpportunity Assessment

Impact of No Shrink Categories– No Shrink may indicate an excellent job of determining the right

quantities– No Shrink may also indicate that there are potential lost sales

opportunities because they have run out of a product so the customer cannot purchase it.

– No Shrink with lost sales leads to a level of customer dissatisfaction and possible impact on perceived customer service and satisfaction.

Following Recommended Orders– Some categories and items were managed directly from the

experience of the store manager– Some Forecasting factors were put into place to provide more

meaningful recommended orders – factors included weather, day of the week and special events

– In process: increase distribution of high consumer response items and decrease poor performance items

Page 49: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

C-Store Fresh Food Items 8 Week Test ResultsC-Store Fresh Food Items 8 Week Test Results

151175410SUM

156418458/14 - 8/20

312630218/7 - 8/13

239528237/31 - 8/6

281842177/24 - 7/30

2917319297/17-7/23

3291914387/10 - 7/16

2127212307/3 - 7/9

2715523216/26-7/2

Order determined by manager input

Shrink existed and order

suggested More

Zero Shrink but suggested order

was for less

Shrink Exists but suggested Order would result in

Less

Zero Shrink but suggested order

was for moreWEEK

70% of total orders would have provided cost savings or more sales

Page 50: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

246.2%227.2%233.3%Contribution to Profit

29.1%44.0%34.6%Shrink Percent

2,525,5272,009,0291,974,228Profitability

160422241784Shrink (#)

7,536,9376,826,1556,701,840Sales

Period 3Period 2Period 1Key Metrics

RESULTS:Sales increased (10.25%)

Shrink decreased (24.9%)

Profitability was increased (21.1%)

Percent of Shrink was reduced (10.2%)

Contribution to Profit increased (9.5%)

Period 3 (test trial period)

C-Store Fresh Food Items Period Comparison ResultsC-Store Fresh Food Items Period Comparison Results

Page 51: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Other Successful CategoriesOther Successful Categories

Fresh PorkFrozen PizzaMagazines

Bottled WaterPet FoodCrusty Bread

PotatoesRotisserie ChickenSandwiches

Cut FruitBananasEggs

Bagged SaladsFrozen BreakfastFluid Milk

Salty SnacksGround BeefMushrooms

YogurtRefrigerated JuiceCat Litter

Refrigerated Baked Goods

Page 52: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

TestimonialTestimonial

“This data portal will ultimately provide our biggest strategic customers with the daily sales data that we are analyzing every day…

As a major retailer, we long for the day when a vendor can come to us proactively and make educated recommendations based upon what they are seeing in our own scan data. The more eyes on our data the better.”

Category Manager1,000+ Store Regional Supermarket Chain

Page 53: Case Studies - Jim Prevor's Perishable Pundit · – SKU Rationalization • 44% of items only generating 2.29% of contribution while accounting for 8.1 % of shrink – Assortment

Right Product…Right Quantity…

Right Time…

Right Product…Right Quantity…

Right Time…For more information contact:Randy FieldsChairmanPark City [email protected]