Case shiller-indexes-report-q1-2013

CoreLogic�®

Case-Shiller Indexes® Report

FIRST QUARTER 2013

CORELOGIC® CASE-SHILLER INDEXES® REPORTFIRST QUARTER 2013

© 2013 CoreLogic — Proprietary and confidential. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission. 22

CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEXES – MAJOR MARKET OVERVIEW

► Home Prices Surged in the First Quarter of 2013, the First Double-Digit Gain Since

the Peak of the Housing Bubble

► Nationally, Home Prices Are Still Signifi cantly Below Their Peak, Reducing

Concerns of a New Housing Bubble

► Price Appreciation Is Projected to Moderate in 2014 As Home Prices and

Mortgage Interest Rates Rise and Home Inventories Increase

U.S. HOME PRICES

10.2%IN Q1 2013

Home prices surged by 10.2 percent in the fi rst quarter

of 2013, the fi rst double-digit gain since the peak of the

housing bubble in 2006. Prices in metro areas at the center

of the housing bubble rebounded sharply, with Phoenix up

23 percent, Sacramento up 21 percent, Detroit up 18 percent

and Miami up 14 percent. Extremely limited inventory in

each of these metros is boosting prices. Similarly, Bismarck,

N.D., is up 13 percent due to strong demand from oil and

natural gas workers, which is outpacing supply.

PRICES ROSE IN

296OUT OF 384 METROS IN Q1 2013

Home prices increased year over year in 296, or 77 percent,

of metropolitan areas (Core Based Statistical Areas) in the

fi rst quarter of 2013. Although some metro areas are still

posting year-over-year decreases, it is likely that all metro

markets will post positive annual appreciation by year’s end.

“Record levels of affordability, a slowly improving job market, and very small

inventories of new and existing homes for sale will continue to drive U.S. home

price appreciation during the summer.”

Dr. David Stiff , chief economist for CoreLogic Case-Shiller

The CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes cover more than 380 U.S. markets. This

includes thousands of ZIP codes, counties, metro areas and state markets.

Proprietary CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price trend information is

supplemented by Federal Housing Finance Agency data.



HOME PRICE PROJECTIONS*

► ONE-YEAR TREND

HOME PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE BY

6.5%from the fi rst quarter of 2013 through the same quarter of 2014.

Record levels of aff ordability, a slowly improving job market, and tight inventories of new and

existing homes will continue to drive double-digit appreciation through the summer. The supply

of active listings ranges from three months in Detroit, Phoenix and Sacramento to fi ve and a half

months in Miami, indicating sellers’ markets. As home prices rise in lagging markets, the national

rate of appreciation also increases.

“We expect strong buying activity this spring will lead to stabilization of home prices in most lagging markets, resulting in rising home prices in nearly every metro area by the end of 2013.”


*The CoreLogic Case-Shiller forecasts are produced by CoreLogic and Moody’s Analytics.

CONTINUED ON PAGE 4



HOME PRICE PROJECTIONS*

► LONGER-TERM TRENDS

THE CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER INDEXES PROJECT A CONTINUED TREND OF RISING HOME PRICES OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS. HOME PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AT AN ANNUALIZED RATE OF

4.0%from the fi rst quarter of 2013 through the fi rst quarter of 2018.

Price gains are projected to decelerate from a double-digit pace in 2014 as increasing mortgage

rates and home prices decrease aff ordability.

Better balance between supply and demand also moderates price increases. Homeowners whose

properties had been underwater before the recent price surge may consider selling to lock in

gains. With more favorable pricing, developers also ramp up building activity, which adds to

available supply.

Home price appreciation is projected to slow to 5.6 percent between the fi rst quarter of 2014 and

the fi rst quarter of 2015.

*The CoreLogic Case-Shiller forecasts are produced by CoreLogic and Moody’s Analytics.



U.S. METROS HOME PRICE HIGHLIGHTSPOPULATION 950,000+

► Five metro areas recording largest year-over-year gains through the fi rst quarter of 2013

SAN JOSE PHOENIX SAN FRANCISCO SACRAMENTO LAS VEGAS

+23.7% +22.8% +21.1% +21.0% +20.9%

► Five metro areas with year-over-year declines or smallest gains through the fi rst quarter of 2013

LONG ISLAND KANSAS CITY, MO HARTFORD NEWARK EDISON, NJ

-1.4% -0.4% +1.2% +1.2% +1.4%

► Five metro areas with largest three-year home price gains through the fi rst quarter of 2013

DETROIT PHOENIX SAN JOSE WARREN, MICH HOUSTON

+36.5% +18.8% +18.5% +14.5% +14.3%

► Five metro areas with largest three-year home price declines through the fi rst quarter of 2013

VIRGINIA BEACH CAMDEN, NJ TUCSON CHICAGO EDISON, NJ

-9.0% -8.5% -7.0% -6.5% -6.5%

“Although a small number of metropolitan areas show year-over-year declines, it is likely that home prices in these cities will turn positive by the end of the year.”




U.S. METROS HOME PRICE PROJECTION HIGHLIGHTSPOPULATION 950,000+

► Five metro areas with highest one-year projected increase through the fi rst quarter of 2014

SAN FRANCISCO HARTFORD BALTIMORE LOS ANGELES SACRAMENTO

+10.5% +9.8% +9.6% +8.4% +7.8%

► Only four metro areas have projected declines through the fi rst quarter of 2014

MIAMI FT. LAUDERDALE ORLANDO HOUSTON

-2.7% -2.6% -1.6% -0.1%

“Building activity has increased more slowly than expected, mostly because of the uneven economic recovery. Builder confi dence, which leads to construction activity, has been soaring, so the pace of new construction is expected to increase more rapidly.”




Forecast

Actual

MAJOR MARKETS HIGHLIGHTS

► Year-Over-Year Home Price Changes

U.S. Single-Family

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

52

06

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Average annual appreciationsince 1976 (5%)

Sources: CoreLogic Case-Shiller, Moody’s Analytics

► Metro Area 3-Year Price Changes (Q1 2010 – Q1 2013)

Sources: CoreLogic Case-Shiller, FHFA, Moody’s Analytics

10% Increase or More

0% to 10% Increase

-5% to 0% Decline

-5% Decline or More



CONTINUED ON PAGE 9

SELECTED METRO AREAS

METRO AREA POPULATION (2012)

CHANGE IN HOME PRICES (Q1 2012 TO

Q1 2013)


Q1 2013)

FORECAST CHANGE IN

HOME PRICES (Q1 2013 TO

Q1 2014)

San Jose, Calif. 1,894,388 23.7% 18.5% 7.4%

Phoenix 4,329,534 22.8% 18.8% 5.1%

San Francisco 1,821,243 21.1% 13.3% 10.5%

Sacramento, Calif. 2,196,482 21.0% 6.6% 7.8%

Las Vegas 2,000,759 20.9% 6.2% 5.6%

Atlanta 5,439,950 19.2% -5.4% 4.9%

Detroit 1,792,365 18.2% 36.5% 5.7%

Los Angeles 9,962,789 17.6% 11.0% 8.4%

Riverside, Calif. 4,350,096 15.0% 10.0% 0.2%

Orlando, Fla. 2,223,674 14.6% 6.3% -1.6%

Miami 2,591,035 14.2% 13.7% -2.7%

Warren, Mich. 2,499,695 12.9% 14.5% 2.8%

Houston 6,204,161 12.2% 14.3% -0.1%

Tampa, Fla. 2,842,878 11.9% 2.2% 2.3%

Salt Lake City 1,161,715 11.5% 7.0% 5.9%

W. Palm Beach, Fla. 1,356,545 11.4% 1.2% 0.6%

Tucson, Ariz. 992,394 11.0% -7.0% 7.2%

Jacksonville, Fla. 1,377,850 9.9% -3.3% 1.4%

Fort Lauderdale, Fla. 1,815,137 9.5% 8.0% -2.6%

San Antonio 2,234,003 9.2% 9.6% 3.9%

Chicago 7,945,578 8.6% -6.5% 6.5%

Nashville, Tenn. 1,644,703 7.5% 4.3% 1.2%

Indianapolis, Ind. 1,798,634 7.4% 2.6% 0.7%

Austin, Texas 1,834,303 7.0% 8.9% 2.3%

Virginia Beach, Va. 1,694,900 6.0% -9.0% 2.8%

New Orleans, La. 1,205,374 5.9% 3.1% 3.3%

U.S. METROS Q1 2013

3-year change: 3.5%

1-year change: 10.2%

1-year forecast:6.5%



METRO AREA POPULATION (2012)


Q1 2013)


Q1 2013)

FORECAST CHANGE IN

HOME PRICES (Q1 2013 TO

Q1 2014)

Richmond, Va. 1,282,305 5.8% -3.9% 3.3%

Milwaukee, Wis. 1,566,981 5.0% -3.9% 4.8%

St. Louis, Mo. 2,845,721 5.0% -6.2% 2.6%

Columbus, Ohio 1,878,714 4.9% 3.6% 3.9%

Baltimore 2,753,149 3.9% -3.1% 9.6%

Fort Worth, Texas 2,213,738 3.4% 6.5% 3.6%

Camden, N.J. 1,254,461 2.4% -8.5% 5.5%

Raleigh, N.C. 1,188,564 2.0% -0.6% 0.7%

Philadelphia 4,050,793 1.9% -4.7% 5.4%

Edison, N.J. 2,360,602 1.4% -6.5% 3.9%

Hartford, Conn. 1,214,400 1.2% -6.5% 9.8%

Kansas City, Mo. 2,064,630 -0.4% 0.8% 0.7%

Nassau-Suff olk (Long Island), N.Y. 2,848,506 -1.4% -3.4% 2.8%

SELECTED METRO AREAS

U.S. METROS Q1 2013

3-year change: 3.5%

1-year change: 10.2%

1-year forecast:6.5%



CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER INDEXES METHODOLOGYTHE LONGEST-STANDING, MOST HIGHLY RECOGNIZED BRAND OF HOME PRICE INDEXES

CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes use the repeat sales method for index calculation, analyzing data

on single-family properties that have two or more recorded sales transactions. Changes in housing

types and sizes, or changes in the physical characteristics of houses are specifi cally excluded

from the calculations to avoid incorrectly aff ecting the index value. The principal variable used

for index calculation is the price change between two arms-length sales of the same single-family

home. Sales pairs with approved data are aggregated with all other sales pairs found in a particular

Census division, state, metro area, county, or ZIP code market to independently calculate each

Case-Shiller index. The national index is a composite of the Case-Shiller Census division indexes.

Diff erent weights are assigned to diff erent changes in home prices, based on their statistical

distribution in that geographic region. The weighting schemes include price anomalies, high

turnover frequency, time interval adjustments and initial home value. Case-Shiller Indexes include

data covering thousands of ZIP codes, counties, metro areas and state markets.

ABOUT CORELOGIC

CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading property information, analytics and services provider in

the United States and Australia. The Company’s combined data from public, contributory, and

proprietary sources includes over 3.3 billion records spanning more than 40 years, providing

detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy,

location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include

real estate and mortgage fi nance, insurance, capital markets, transportation and government.

CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workfl ow technology,

advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth

opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic

operates in seven countries. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

CoreLogic, the CoreLogic logo and CoreLogic Case-Shiller are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.

CONTACT

For more information, contact Dave Hurt at 301-365-0407 ([email protected]) or Brian Gunn at

415-536-3537 ([email protected]).

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