Cars next frontier in tech profits
Transcript of Cars next frontier in tech profits
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The next frontier in technology profits: Cars
Jim JubakJubakPicks.com (free)
JubakAM.com (subscription)[email protected]
Author of Juggling with Knives (order at Amazon.com)
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My new book on volatility
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Watch the car ads—what do you see?
• Sure BMW and LandRover are still selling the driving experience and Lincoln is selling life-changing Zen
• But everybody else is selling—• #1 communications/entertainment
electronics• #2 vehicle autonomy—self-braking,self-
steering lane guidance, self-parking etc.
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Where are the growth $$$ in cars?
• Global vehicle sales by 2030 $4 trillion, up from $2.75 trillion in 2015 (McKinsey)
• Global unit growth to 2% annual rate by 2030 from 3.75% annual rate over last 5 years
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More of the $$ to chips
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Three biggest chip growth categories?
• Safety: $4 billion in 2010 to projected $8 billion in 2019
• Driver info: $5 billion 2010 to projected $7.5 billion in 2019
• Powertrain: $5 billion 2010 to projected $10.5 billion in 2019
• Source (and on previous chart) Strategy Analytics)
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Cars top growth area for chips
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So who?
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Look at market share/ pure play
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That’s (auto) infotainment
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The emerging auto-drive vehicle
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The auto market is starting to look like the smartphone market • A few companies make all the money—
automakers want to avoid being sidetracked by Apple/Google
• Automakers don’t want to be just hardware players
• Ford effort to create “auto standard run by automaker”
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What’s the key advantage in this these markets
• NVidia (NVDA) processing, processing, processing
• Nidec (NJ) if it buys Renesas—motors plus chips
• NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) market share after buying Freescale (Auto rev up 37% y/y in Q4)
• Mobileye (MBLY) no autonomous driving without data base
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More on volatility in my book