Carpenter Reports Q3 2012
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Transcript of Carpenter Reports Q3 2012
The momentum in the central Indiana housing market continued through the third quarter of 2012 but at a slower pace. The good news is that the inventory levels, numbers of houses on the market, have continued to decline, down 12.7% year-over-year. That’s good news. Fewer houses on the market means stronger prices. We suspect the decline in bank-owned (foreclosed) properties hitting the market continues to drive this decline. Again, good news.
The increased sales activity in housing continues from earlier quarters as well albeit a bit slower. Pended Sales were up 7% year-over-year for the third quarter. That is a bit slower than the 9.2% we saw in the second quarter and the 13.2% in the first quarter.
We saw Closed Units, homes that have pended and closed, increase by 10.9% year-over-year in the third quarter. While that’s good, it does reflect a decline from the 13.9% increase in the second quarter and the 13.6% in the first quarter of 2012. Again, indicating a possible slowdown in the momentum of the housing recovery in central Indiana.
The year-over-year Average Sales Price (ASP) is slightly down, and the current actual ASP slipped from $160,484 in the second quarter to $154,026 in the third quarter.
It’s too early to tell, but this apparent pause in the momentum experienced earlier in the year may well be in reaction to the pending elections and the uncertainty of the year-end “fiscal cliff.”
As I am writing this summary, I note that the September Consumer Confidence Index report showed a strong increase to over 70. This is the highest level year-to-date. That’s a positive indicator for housing. In addition, an early look at homes pended in central Indiana for the first ten days in October shows the strongest level of seasonally adjustedactivity since April of 2010 when we saw the last of the Federal housing incentives. Both of these may well indicatethe pause in the third quarter of 2012 was short-lived and the housing recovery is building momentum again in central Indiana.
The next issue of Carpenter Reports is out in early January. By then, we’ll be able to quantify the impact of both the elections and the pending “fiscal cliff” on home buyers in central Indiana. Hindsight will provide us a clear view of what’s ahead. We’ll just have to wait and see.
Is The Momentum in Housing Slowing?
Warm Regards,
David CavenessSenior Vice PresidentCarpenter Realtors®
October, 2012
3Rd Qtr ‘11 3Rd Qtr ‘12 2011-2012 2011-2012Units Closed Units PendingListing Inventory UnitsAverage Sale Price(closed Units) Avg. Price per sq.ft.
Central Indiana Summary
Average Residential Sale Price - Closed Units
CoUnTy 3Rd Qtr ‘11 3Rd Qtr ‘12 2011-2012 2011-2012Boone HamiltonHancockHendricksJohnsonMadisonMarionMontgomeryMorganPutnamShelby
UnIT CHAnge % CHAnge
TOTALS $158,288 $154,026 -$4,262 -2.7%
page 3
doLLAR CHAnge % CHAnge
$247,787$253,653$136,178$160,501$152,926
$81,514$121,703
$89,959$136,775$122,519$101,189
$254,313$244,147$143,590$155,365$158,270
$76,427$124,317$101,889$138,142$126,748$108,217
+$6,526-$9,506+$7,412-$5,136+$5,344-$5,087+$2,614
+$11,930+$1,367+$4,229-$7,028
+2.6%-3.7%+5.4%-3.2%+3.5%-6.2%+2.1%
+13.3%+1.0%+3.5%+7.0%
6,4186,250
13,643$158,288
$83.30
8,536 6,686
11,914$154,026
$80.64
+699+436
-1,729-$4,262
-$2.66
+10.9%+7.0%
-12.7%-2.7%
-3.2%
Pending Residential Sales - Units
CoUnTy 3Rd Qtr ‘11 3Rd Qtr ‘12 2011-2012 2011-2012Boone HamiltonHancock Hendricks JohnsonMadisonMarionMontgomeryMorganPutnam Shelby
UnIT CHAnge % CHAnge
MARIon TwPS 3Rd Qtr ‘11 3Rd Qtr ‘12 2011-2012 2011-2012Center neCenter SedecaturFranklinLawrencePerryPikewarrenwashingtonwayne
UnIT CHAnge % CHAnge
TOTALS
TOTALS 6,250 6,686 +436 +7.0%
page 4
144102109218316297240295442293
2,763
185108115231393333242307447338
2,699
+28.5%+5.9%+5.5%+6.0%
+24.4%+12.1%
+0.8%+4.1%+1.1%
+15.4%
-2.3%
+41+6+6
+13+77+36
+2+12
+5+45
-64
2171,169
248550508292
2,763126204
69104
2471,402
235571520415
2,699123229121124
+30+233
-13+21+12
+123-64
-3+25+52+20
+13.8%+19.9%
-5.2%+3.8%+2.4%
+42.1%-2.3%-2.4%
+12.3%+75.4%+19.2%
Listing Inventory Units
CoUnTy oCT 1, 2011 oCT 1, 2012 UnIT CHAnge % CHAngeBooneHamiltonHancockHendricksJohnsonMadisonMarionMontgomeryMorganPutnamShelby
MARIon TwPS oCT 1, 2011 oCT 1, 2012 UnIT CHAnge % CHAngeCenter neCenter SedecaturFranklinLawrencePerryPikewarrenwashingtonwayne
TOTALS
TOTALS
page 5
530299234458785630491689830704
5,650
465265176446707503431620668568
4,849
-65-34-58-12-78
-127-60-69
-162-136
-801
-12.3%-11.4%-24.8%
-2.6%-9.9%
-20.2%-12.2%-10.0%-19.5%-19.3%
-14.2%
5772,429
5681,1211,047
8075,650
280569297298
13,643
5002,005
4971,064
891760
4,849270538276264
11,914
-77-424
-71-57
-156-47
-801-10-31-21-34
-1,729
-13.3%-17.5%-12.5%
-5.1%-14.9%
-5.8%-14.2%
-3.6%-5.4%-7.1%
-11.4%
-12.7%
Average Sales Price Per Sq. Ft.
AveRAge SALe PRICe PeR $/SQ.FT. CoUnTy 3Rd Qtr ‘11 3Rd Qtr ‘12 yR. oveR yR.Boone HamiltonHancockHendricksJohnsonMadisonMarionMontgomeryMorganPutnamShelby
AveRAge SALe PRICe PeR $/SQ.FT. MARIon TwPS 3Rd Qtr ‘11 3Rd Qtr ‘12 yR. oveR yR.Center neCenter SedecaturFranklinLawrencePerryPikewarrenwashingtonwayne
page 6
TOTALS
Note: These statistics are compiled by Carpenter Realtors® from data provided by the MetropolitanIndianapolis Board of Realtors® through the BLC. While deemed reliable, neither Carpenter Realtors®
nor the Metropolitan Indianapolis Board of Realtors® guarantees the accuracy of the data or the analysis.“Homes Pended” means property was placed under contract to sell, but not necessarily yet closed.
“Homes Pended”is used in the report to provide a more current measure of market conditions. Marion County data includes partial data for Center Township. Listing inventory data represents single
family homes only.
Founded in 1970, Carpenter Realtors® is one of Indiana’s largest residential real estate companies with 30 branch locations and nearly 600 sales associates serving 13 central Indiana counties.
$106.48$103.74
$70.56$79.18$79.86$48.78$70.59$53.17$75.57$71.27$61.59
$83.30
$105.61$103.41
$70.66$76.27$80.02$46.63$72.36$61.60$78.45$75.49$62.05
$80.64
-0.8%-0.3%+0.1%-3.7%+0.2%-4.4%+2.5%
+15.9%+3.8%+5.9%+0.8%
-3.2%
TOTALS
$63.30$37.63$52.04$64.16$78.54$60.94$68.85$45.88
$106.53$47.40
$70.59
$72.53$39.12$53.73$70.85$81.26$63.11$66.52$49.71
$106.54$48.66
$72.36
+14.6%3.9%
+3.3%+10.4%
+3.5%+3.6%-3.4%+8.4%+0.0%+2.7%
+2.5%