Caribbean Training Course in Seismology and Tsunami Warnings
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Caribbean Training Course in Seismology and Caribbean Training Course in Seismology and Tsunami Warnings Tsunami Warnings June 25-30, 2007, St. Augustine, Trinidad June 25-30, 2007, St. Augustine, Trinidad TWC Operations for the TWC Operations for the Caribbean Caribbean Dr. Charles McCreery, Director Dr. Charles McCreery, Director NOAA Richard H. Hagemeyer Pacific Tsunami Warning Center NOAA Richard H. Hagemeyer Pacific Tsunami Warning Center Ewa Beach, Hawaii USA Ewa Beach, Hawaii USA
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Caribbean Training Course in Seismology and Tsunami Warnings June 25-30, 2007, St. Augustine, Trinidad TWC Operations for the Caribbean Dr. Charles McCreery, Director NOAA Richard H. Hagemeyer Pacific Tsunami Warning Center Ewa Beach, Hawaii USA. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Caribbean Training Course in Seismology and Tsunami Warnings
Caribbean Training Course in Seismology and Caribbean Training Course in Seismology and Tsunami WarningsTsunami Warnings
June 25-30, 2007, St. Augustine, TrinidadJune 25-30, 2007, St. Augustine, Trinidad
TWC Operations for the CaribbeanTWC Operations for the Caribbean
Dr. Charles McCreery, DirectorDr. Charles McCreery, Director NOAA Richard H. Hagemeyer Pacific Tsunami Warning CenterNOAA Richard H. Hagemeyer Pacific Tsunami Warning Center
Ewa Beach, Hawaii USAEwa Beach, Hawaii USA
Why do you need to know about tsunami Why do you need to know about tsunami warning operations for the Caribbean?warning operations for the Caribbean?
• To better understand the capabilities and To better understand the capabilities and limitations of the systemlimitations of the system
• Speed of systemSpeed of system• Accuracy of systemAccuracy of system• Reliability of systemReliability of system• Effectiveness of systemEffectiveness of system
• To have and to promote expectations To have and to promote expectations accordinglyaccordingly
• To work to improve the systemTo work to improve the system
Some Key DefinitionsSome Key Definitions• Regional Tsunami Watch Provider (RTWP)Regional Tsunami Watch Provider (RTWP)
Center responsible for issuing timely tsunami threat Center responsible for issuing timely tsunami threat guidance to other countries based on their own analysis. guidance to other countries based on their own analysis. PTWC currently acting as the RTWP for the CaribbeanPTWC currently acting as the RTWP for the Caribbean
• National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC)National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC)Center responsible for issuing tsunami warnings to a Center responsible for issuing tsunami warnings to a country. Capabilities can range from acting only on country. Capabilities can range from acting only on RTWP messages to having full analysis capabilities.RTWP messages to having full analysis capabilities.
• National Tsunami Warning Focal Point (TWFP)National Tsunami Warning Focal Point (TWFP)24x7 office designated by a country to receive and act on 24x7 office designated by a country to receive and act on messages from the RTWP. Usually it is the NTWC.messages from the RTWP. Usually it is the NTWC.
• ICG Tsunami National Contact (TNC)ICG Tsunami National Contact (TNC)A person designated by a country as the contact point for A person designated by a country as the contact point for ICG-related matters on tsunami warning and mitigation.ICG-related matters on tsunami warning and mitigation.
PTWC Key Operational ActivitiesPTWC Key Operational Activities• Seismic Detection and AnalysisSeismic Detection and Analysis
Rapidly detect large earthquakes, determine their origin Rapidly detect large earthquakes, determine their origin time, location, depth and magnitude, and otherwise time, location, depth and magnitude, and otherwise evaluate their tsunami generation potential.evaluate their tsunami generation potential.
• Sea Level Monitoring and MeasuringSea Level Monitoring and MeasuringMonitor sea level data to detect, measure and evaluate Monitor sea level data to detect, measure and evaluate tsunami waves.tsunami waves.
• Decision-makingDecision-makingUtilize all available data and decision-making tools such Utilize all available data and decision-making tools such as forecast models to determine if a tsunami threat as forecast models to determine if a tsunami threat exists, the extent of the threat, and when the threat is exists, the extent of the threat, and when the threat is ended.ended.
• Message Creation and DisseminationMessage Creation and DisseminationCreate messages appropriate to the situation and Create messages appropriate to the situation and disseminate them to the area of responsibility.disseminate them to the area of responsibility.
Current PTWC Network of Seismic Stations
(from GSN & USNSN & Other Contributing Networks)
BBGHBBGH
SDDRSDDR
TGUHTGUH
Dom. Rep
Puerto RicoHaiti
Jamaica
Barbados
TobagoTrinidad
GrenadaSt. Vincent
St. Lucia
Aves Is. Dominica
Turks and Caicos Is.
Cocos Is
Proposed GSN StationsProposed USAID/GOTT/UWI Sub-Net
Various Existing local BB Stations
Proposed Cayman Sub-NetProposed Dutch Antillean Sub-Net
Network Proposed at RSNO Workshop
Guadeloupe
Martinique
Panama
ElSalvador
Costa Rica
Colombia
Belize
Nicaragua
Mexico
Honduras
San Andres Is.
Guatemala
Cayman Is.
Bahamas
Existing GSN Stations
U.S. National Ocean Service Coastal Sea Level Gauges
Current Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico DARTs
NOS Sea Level Gauges (1-min samples, 6-min transmissions)
Caribbean Tsunami Scenario
Caribbean Tsunami Scenario
Caribbean Tsunami Scenario
Caribbean Tsunami Scenario
Caribbean Tsunami Scenario
Earth-quakeDepth
Earth-quake
Location
Earth-quake
Magnitude(Mw)
Description of TsunamiPotential
ProductType
< 100 km
Under or very near the sea
6.0 to 7.0Caribbean
Very small potential for a destructive local tsunami
Tsunami Information Statement
6.5 to 7.8Atlantic
Very small potential for a destructive ocean-wide tsunami
Tsunami InformationStatement
7.1 to 7.5Caribbean
Potential for a destructive local tsunami
Local Tsunami Watch
Message
7.6 to 7.8Caribbean
Potential for a destructive regional tsunami
Regional Tsunami Watch Message
≥ 7.9Caribbean& Atlantic
Potential for a destructive ocean-wide tsunami
Ocean-wide Tsunami Watch Message
Inland ≥ 6.0 Carib≥ 6.5 Atlan
No tsunami potential Tsunami Information Statement
≥ 100 km
All Locations
≥ 6.0 Carib≥ 6.5 Atlan
No tsunami potential Tsunami Information Statement
CRITERIA FOR CARTWS PRODUCTS
Shallow Pacific Earthquakes
0
100
200
300
400
500
7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 8 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5
Mw
Nu
mb
er
of
Ev
en
ts p
er
Ce
ntu
ry
Values projected from Harvard CMT Catalog
2500 Events
----------------23
DestructiveLocal
Tsunamis
Cu
mu
lati
ve E
ven
ts p
er C
entu
ry
Mw
Val
ue
Moment Magnitude, Mw
Information Bulletin
Mw = 6.5-7.5
Fixed 1000kmRegional Warning
Mw = 7.6-7.8
Expanding 3+3 hourRegional Warning/Watch
Mw > 7.8
150 Events----------------
20 Destructive
Local or Regional Tsunamis
100 Events----------------
30 Destructive
Local or Regional Tsunamis
8Tele-
Tsunamis
WMO/GTS AND AWIPS IDsFOR CARTWS PRODUCTS
WMO/GTS ID AWIPS ID Product Type
WECA41 PHEB TSUCAX Tsunami Watch Message
WECA43 PHEB TIBCAX Tsunami Information Statement
PTWC Timeline for a Caribbean EventPTWC Timeline for a Caribbean EventMin Event
0 Earthquake occurs
1-5 PTWC Alarm Sounds
Automatic Earthquake Solution
Interactive Earthquake Solution
Observatory Message Issued
Reviewed Earthquake Solution
3-10 PTWC Product Issued
30-120 Sea Level Readings Received
<hourly PTWC Products Issued
Speed of SystemSpeed of System
Initial WarningsInitial Warnings
• Effective if you are at least 30 minutes awayEffective if you are at least 30 minutes away• Faster where denser seismic network availableFaster where denser seismic network available
Tsunami ConfirmationTsunami Confirmation
• At least 30-60 minutes except near Puerto RicoAt least 30-60 minutes except near Puerto Rico
Accuracy of SystemAccuracy of System
Seismic ParametersSeismic Parameters
• Location, Depth and Magnitude sufficient (but Location, Depth and Magnitude sufficient (but there is a trade-off with timeliness)there is a trade-off with timeliness)
Tsunami Evaluation / ForecastTsunami Evaluation / Forecast
• Very limited capabilities due to limited sea level Very limited capabilities due to limited sea level data and forecast model guidancedata and forecast model guidance
Result: Likelihood of Over-WarningResult: Likelihood of Over-Warning
Reliability of SystemReliability of System
PTWC ReliabilityPTWC Reliability
• Many levels of backup to maintain constant Many levels of backup to maintain constant 24x7 operations24x7 operations
NTWC Reliability (Developing)NTWC Reliability (Developing)
• Communication tests and drills to exercise and Communication tests and drills to exercise and improveimprove
End-to-End Reliability (Developing)End-to-End Reliability (Developing)
• For local tsunami, communications may be For local tsunami, communications may be damaged.damaged.
Effectiveness of SystemEffectiveness of System
An Unknown at this Early StageAn Unknown at this Early Stage
• Message products from TWCs need to be understood Message products from TWCs need to be understood and lead to appropriate actionsand lead to appropriate actions
• Communications systems are needed to quickly alert Communications systems are needed to quickly alert those at riskthose at risk
• Exercises are needed to test and improve systemExercises are needed to test and improve system
• Educational programs are needed for public and Educational programs are needed for public and decision-makersdecision-makers
• All stakeholders need to be involvedAll stakeholders need to be involved
Thank YouThank You
