Career Point Infosystems Ltd. -...

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September 28, 2011 Career Point Infosystems Ltd. Educating India… CMP Rs. 262 Target Rs. 331 Initiating Coverage - Buy SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 1 of 15 Analyst: Vikesh P. Mehta Tel No.:+91 22 2281 9012, Mob: +91 9819 602 602 Email: [email protected] COMPANY PROFILE Career Point Infosystems Ltd. (CPIL) is a leading test preparatory service provider, the company primarily focuses on providing tutorial services for various competitive entrance examinations like AIEEE, IIT-JEE, AIPMT and PDT. The company provides these services through company operated training centres, franchisee centres and distance learning programmes. The company has recently forayed into K-12 schools and higher education. Key Share Data Face Value (Rs.) 10 Equity Capital (Rs. Mn.) 181 M Cap.(Rs. Mn.) 4,704 52-wk High / Low (Rs.) 711 / 255 Avg. Daily Volume (NSE) 9,124 BSE code 533260 NSE code CPIL Reuters code CARP.BO Bloomberg code CRPT IN Shareholding Pattern (as on 30 th June, 2011) Financials (Consolidated) (Rs. mn) Particulars FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Operating Rev 617 786 843 1,329 Growth (%) 36.6 27.5 7.2 57.7 EBIDTA 238 296 311 498 PAT 178 233 243 341 Growth (%) 18.7 30.9 4.2 40.7 CEPS (Rs.) 12.8 13.6 15.2 21.6 EPS (Rs.) 12.3 12.8 13.4 18.8 Key Ratios FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Div. Yield (%) - - - - P / E (x) 21.3 20.4 19.6 13.9 P / BV (x) 2.8 1.8 1.6 1.5 P / CEPS (x) 20.5 19.3 17.3 12.1 M.Cap/Sales(x) 7.7 6.1 5.6 3.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 19.0 15.3 14.6 9.2 ROCE (%) 11.2 7.1 6.4 9.1 ROE (%) 13.3 8.7 8.4 10.5 EBITDA M. (%) 38.6 37.7 36.9 37.5 NPM (%) 28.9 29.6 28.8 25.7 Debt-Equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 I year Performance CRPT v/s BSE SMALL CAP INVESTMENT RATIONALE Strong foothold in the test preparatory market… CPIL is an established player in the test preparatory service business and a leading brand in the AIEEE segment, which is displayed by the increasing number students enrollments with Career Point for AIEEE. In order to expand its footprints in its core business, CPIL aims to open 10 company operated training centres and 5 franchisees each year till FY14E at strategic locations to create hubs like Kota. CPIL is a market leader in the engineering tutoring market hub Kota, as it coaches more than 25% of the students enrolled in Kota each year. To address such immense demand, CPIL plans to incur a capex of Rs. 650 mn and build an integrated campus for 3000 occupants. Formal education…. subsequent focus area CPIL forayed into formal education through its educational consulting and management services (ECAMS) business unit of late to provide ECAMS to privately and / or government-run schools, colleges and universities. It also intends to enter into partnerships with the governments under the PPP model to manage schools, colleges and universities in rural and/or urban areas. CPIL shall charge ECAMS fees for the same. It also leverages upon its rich experience in understanding the dynamics of infrastructure requirements in the education sector and provide Infrastructure Support Services (ISS) by setting-up physical infrastructure including land, building, furniture and computers for the asset light institutions by outsourcing their capital intensive infrastructure requirements and allied services. CPIL offers this support service through its wholly owned subsidiary - Career Point Infra Limited (CP Infra). Initially, CP Infra will incur the capex for building up the required infra and provide the same to the trust / society for lease rentals. Promoter 59.9% Bodies Corp. 12.2% DII 15.4% FII 0.2% Other 12.3% Source: Company -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% CRPT IN BSE_SMALLCAP VALUATION At CMP the stock trades at 19.6x and 13.9x earnings of FY12E and FY13E respectively. We have valued CPIL based on DCF at CMP and arrived at a target price of Rs. 331 yielding a potential upside of 26% (15 months), valuing the stock at 24.7x and 17.6x P/E on FY12E, FY13E EPS of Rs. 13.4 and Rs. 18.8 respectively.

Transcript of Career Point Infosystems Ltd. -...

Page 1: Career Point Infosystems Ltd. - breport.myiris.combreport.myiris.com/SKPSEC/CARPOIIN_20110928.pdf · Career Point Infosystems Ltd. ... The highly fragmented and regional coaching

September 28, 2011

Career Point Infosystems Ltd.

Educating India…

CMP Rs. 262 Target Rs. 331 Initiating Coverage - Buy

SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 1 of 15

Analyst: Vikesh P. Mehta

Tel No.:+91 22 2281 9012, Mob: +91 9819 602 602

Email: [email protected]

COMPANY PROFILE Career Point Infosystems Ltd. (CPIL) is a leading test preparatory service

provider, the company primarily focuses on providing tutorial services for

various competitive entrance examinations like AIEEE, IIT-JEE, AIPMT and

PDT. The company provides these services through company operated

training centres, franchisee centres and distance learning programmes. The

company has recently forayed into K-12 schools and higher education.

Key Share Data

Face Value (Rs.) 10

Equity Capital (Rs. Mn.) 181

M Cap.(Rs. Mn.) 4,704

52-wk High / Low (Rs.) 711 / 255

Avg. Daily Volume (NSE) 9,124

BSE code 533260

NSE code CPIL

Reuters code CARP.BO

Bloomberg code CRPT IN

Shareholding Pattern (as on 30th June, 2011)

Financials (Consolidated) (Rs. mn)

Particulars FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E

Operating Rev 617 786 843 1,329

Growth (%) 36.6 27.5 7.2 57.7

EBIDTA 238 296 311 498

PAT 178 233 243 341

Growth (%) 18.7 30.9 4.2 40.7

CEPS (Rs.) 12.8 13.6 15.2 21.6

EPS (Rs.) 12.3 12.8 13.4 18.8

Key Ratios FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E

Div. Yield (%) - - - -

P / E (x) 21.3 20.4 19.6 13.9

P / BV (x) 2.8 1.8 1.6 1.5

P / CEPS (x) 20.5 19.3 17.3 12.1

M.Cap/Sales(x) 7.7 6.1 5.6 3.6

EV/EBITDA (x) 19.0 15.3 14.6 9.2

ROCE (%) 11.2 7.1 6.4 9.1

ROE (%) 13.3 8.7 8.4 10.5

EBITDA M. (%) 38.6 37.7 36.9 37.5

NPM (%) 28.9 29.6 28.8 25.7

Debt-Equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

I year Performance CRPT v/s BSE SMALL CAP

INVESTMENT RATIONALE

Strong foothold in the test preparatory market…

CPIL is an established player in the test preparatory service business

and a leading brand in the AIEEE segment, which is displayed by the

increasing number students enrollments with Career Point for

AIEEE.

In order to expand its footprints in its core business, CPIL aims to

open 10 company operated training centres and 5 franchisees each

year till FY14E at strategic locations to create hubs like Kota.

CPIL is a market leader in the engineering tutoring market hub

– Kota, as it coaches more than 25% of the students enrolled in

Kota each year. To address such immense demand, CPIL plans to

incur a capex of Rs. 650 mn and build an integrated campus for 3000

occupants.

Formal education…. subsequent focus area

CPIL forayed into formal education through its educational

consulting and management services (ECAMS) business unit of late

to provide ECAMS to privately and / or government-run schools,

colleges and universities. It also intends to enter into partnerships

with the governments under the PPP model to manage schools,

colleges and universities in rural and/or urban areas. CPIL shall

charge ECAMS fees for the same.

It also leverages upon its rich experience in understanding the

dynamics of infrastructure requirements in the education sector and

provide Infrastructure Support Services (ISS) by setting-up physical

infrastructure including land, building, furniture and computers for

the asset light institutions by outsourcing their capital intensive

infrastructure requirements and allied services.

CPIL offers this support service through its wholly owned subsidiary

- Career Point Infra Limited (CP Infra). Initially, CP Infra will incur

the capex for building up the required infra and provide the same to

the trust / society for lease rentals.

Promoter

59.9%Bodies

Corp.

12.2%

DII

15.4%FII 0.2%

Other

12.3%

Source: Company

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

CRPT IN BSE_SMALLCAPVALUATION At CMP the stock trades at 19.6x and 13.9x earnings of FY12E and FY13E

respectively. We have valued CPIL based on DCF at CMP and arrived at

a target price of Rs. 331 yielding a potential upside of 26% (15 months),

valuing the stock at 24.7x and 17.6x P/E on FY12E, FY13E EPS of Rs.

13.4 and Rs. 18.8 respectively.

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Third largest education

system globally.

largest education market

in the world.

largest services market

in India.

Government increasing

focus and spending.

30% Gross Enrollment

Ratio targeted by 2020.

At US$ 5.1 billion, the

tuitions market forms

80% of the coaching

class opportunity

INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

India has the third largest education system globally, after China and

the US, with over one million schools and over 26,000 higher

education institutions. With a population of approximately 572 million

in the 0-24 age bracket, it is also the largest education market in the

world. Education sector is the largest services market in India with a

market size of more than 450 million students and $ 57 billion per

annum (as of 2009). The landscape is primarily dominated by central

and state government funded and managed institutions with ~79% of

all schools being government schools.

India’s Gross Enrolment Ratio is at 13%, which is less than half the

global average. The Government has set itself a highly aggressive

target of achieving 30% GER by 2020.

In 2009, the Core / formal / regulated segment accounted for USD 45

billion and the Non-core / informal / unregulated segment for USD 12

billion of the total education market. This is expected to grow to USD

65 billion and USD 20 billion by 2012 at a CAGR of 13% and 18%

respectively.

The highly fragmented and regional coaching classes market accounts

for a sizeable chunk of the informal education market in India. Most

coaching classes run under the aegis of individuals or informal

partnerships. At US$ 5.1 billion, the tuitions market forms 80% of the

coaching class opportunity, and are inherently difficult to scale up.

A highly fragmented market, the business is person-centric and

individual teachers attached to schools/colleges are in great demand.

The coaching class market is growing at 15%, led by a scarcity of

quality institutions in India and stiff competition for entry into

professional colleges. Notably, 80% of the market lies in subject-based

tutoring in schools and colleges – highly dependent on local teachers.

The GOI allocated Rs. 420 billion to regulate and internationalise the

education system in the budget 2011-12.

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Exhibit 1: Framework of Indian Education

Source: Company, SKP Research

formal education space

is regulated and forms

80% of the overall

education market.

The formal education space is regulated and has a dominant share of

~80% in the overall education market. Whereas, the informal segment

is largely unregulated.

Low levels of regulation have been a catalyst in creation of quality

education in developed countries, but Indian education systems are

archaic and act as a hurdle in promoting the increase in capacity and

improvement in quality.

Currently, the government regulates who can teach, what you can teach

them and what you can charge them. It also has huge regulatory

bottlenecks. There are considerable entry barriers: Universities can be

set up only through acts of legislation, approval procedures for starting

new courses are cumbersome, syllabi revision is slow, and accreditation

systems are extremely weak and arbitrary.

Develop Technology based

assessment solutions

a2zfeedback.com,

Indian Education

System

Core / FormalNon-core /

Informal

Schools (K-

12)

Higher

Education

Pre-

schools

Multimedia

Vocational

Training

Books

Coaching

Classes

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Career Point

Infosystems Ltd. (CPIL)

has progressively

emerged as one of the

leading test preparatory

service provider

As on Q1FY12, the

company operated 12

company owned centres

and 11 franchisee

centres

COMPANY PROFILE

Incorporated in March 2000 by the Maheshwari family, Career Point

Infosystems Ltd. (CPIL) has progressively emerged as one of the

leading test preparatory service provider since it was founded in the

engineering tutoring market hub - Kota in 1993. With a 17 year history

of providing education solutions, its CMD and CEO Mr. Pramod

Maheshwari has played a pivotal role in building the strong brand

equity that CPIL enjoys in the education sector.

Hitherto, the company primarily focuses on providing tutorial services

to high school and post high school students for various competitive

entrance examinations like All India Engineering Entrance

Examination (AIEEE), Indian Institute of Technology-Joint Entrance

Examination (IIT-JEE) and All India Pre-Medical (AIPMT) and Pre-

Dental Test (PDT). The company provides these services through

company operated training centres, franchisee centres and distance

learning programmes.

As on Q1FY12, the company operated 12 company owned centres and

11 franchisee centres. Moreover, CPIL recently appointed 4 franchisees

for CPLive wherein it provides live tutorial services and interactive

two-way communication mode over internet broadband.

The company has recently forayed into formal education by managing

K-12 building up technical campuses and universities.

Exhibit 2: Key Management Team

Name Designation Profile

Mr. Pramod Maheshwari Chairman, Managing Director & CEO

B.Tech from IIT Delhi, been a founder director of Career Point since

March 2000 and has over 17 years of experience in developing and

implementing training methodologies

Mr. Om Prakash

Maheshwari Wholetime Director & CFO

Co-founder of Career Point and is responsible for all project

implementation as well as financial and legal matters

Mr. Nawal Kishore

Maheshwari Wholetime Director

Associated with the Company since incorporation and is in-charge of

various functions including administration, liasoning and other day to day

affairs of the Company

Mr. Shailendra

Maheshwari

Sr. Vice President –Academics &

Product Development

With Career Point group since 1995, Working experience of 13 years in

the teaching field, Formulates and monitors the implementation of an effective academic system Company wide.

Mr. Mithilesh Dixit Sr. Vice President -School & Vocational Education

Over 27 years experience in the army, academic and corporate sector with

specific exposure to corporate affairs, Current responsibilities include

managing the formal and vocational education departments

Mr. Rajnish Goyal Vice-President Academics -Test

Preparation

Spent nine years in the field of education, Currently, he is overall in

charge of the mathematics department.

Source: Company

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a prevailing brand in

the AIEEE segment

CPIL now aims to

revive its waning

AIPMT segment. The

company recently

appointed a strong

faculty team for AIPMT

INVESTMENT RATIONALE

Strong foothold in the test preparatory market…

CPIL is an established player in the test preparatory service business

and a prevailing brand in the AIEEE segment, which is displayed by

the increasing number students enrollments with Career Point for

AIEEE (Exhibit 4).

Notwithstanding the fact that enrollments are volatile in the IIT-JEE

segment, the average realization per student has increased with CPIL

primarily by hiking fees across various segments due to its pricing

power, increasing volume in the AIEEE segment and its discretion to

shut down loss making franchisees.

Exhibit 3: Trend in enrollments and avg. realisation

Source: Company, SKP Research

Subsequent to establishing a market share in the AIEEE segment, CPIL

now aims to revive its waning AIPMT segment. The company recently

appointed a strong faculty team for AIPMT and the success of this

decision is evident from the sudden spurt in the enrollments for AIPMT

(Exhibit 4).

Availability of quality teachers determines the success of the tutorial

business. In order to reduce the risk of dependence on any one

particular tutor, CPIL has bifurcated its subjects into topics and each

topic is thought by many tutors.

24,682 28,016 27,710 31,798 32,766

11,779 13,572

16,294 19,201

23,653

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

Total no of students Avg. Realisation / Student (Rs.)

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CPIL aims to open 10

company operated

training centres and 5

franchisees each year

till FY14E

plans to incur a capex

of Rs. 650 mn to build

an integrated campus

for 3000 occupants

Exhibit 4: Students enrollments with various segments

Source: Company, SKP Research

We believe CPIL’s test preparatory business will perform well owing

to few well prominent brands operating in the sector, ever increasing

number of students appearing for the tests and primarily due to intense

competition among the students attributable by the limited availability

of seats for the respective segments.

Exhibit 5: Stats for competitive exams

Source: SKP Research, IIT-JEE website, Industry

In order to expand its footprints in its core business, CPIL aims to open

10 company operated training centres and 5 franchisees each year till

FY14E at strategic locations to create hubs like Kota.

CPIL is a market leader in the engineering tutoring market hub –

Kota, as it coaches more than 25% of the students enrolled in Kota

each year. To address such immense demand, CPIL plans to incur a

capex of Rs. 650 mn and provide better amenities like lodging, canteen,

accommodation for visiting parents, etc. to its captive students and

build an integrated campus for 3000 occupants and charge a nominal

fee of Rs. 7000 – 8000 pm. This facility will start contributing to

CPIL’s top line by the end of FY12E.

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

AIEEE 15,628 16,730 20,640 18,645

IIT-JEE 5,164 4,296 5,560 6,310

AIPMT 1,643 1,141 908 4,117

Distance Learning 5,581 5,543 4,690 3,694

Total 28,016 27,710 31,798 32,766

9,618

27,752

6,429

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

IIT-JEE AIEEE AIPMT

Students Appeared (LHS) Seats Available (RHS)

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Apart from this the company plans to leverage on technology, such as

CPLive, to target markets where it is not viable to open company

operated training centres.

Another such pivotal initiative to obtain access to broader student base

is Synchro School - wherein CPIL provides tutoring for entrance

examination integrated with school education through association with

schools as a corollary CPIL saves on infra costs, incurs minimal

marketing costs and has relatively less investment.

Exhibit 6: Gamut of offering in CPIL universe

Source: Company

CPIL forayed into

formal education to

provide ECAMS to

privately and/or

Government-run

schools, colleges and

universities.

Formal education…. subsequent focus area

CPIL forayed into formal education through its educational consulting

and management services (ECAMS) business unit of late to provide

ECAMS to privately and/or Government-run schools, colleges and

universities. It also intends to enter into partnerships with the

governments under the PPP model to manage schools, colleges and

universities in rural and/or urban areas. CPIL shall charge ECAMS fees

for the same.

Tutorial services to high school and post high school

students for competitive examinations like:

●All India Engineering Entrance Examination (AIEEE)

●State Level Engineering Entrance Examination

(SLEEE)

●Indian Institute of Technology -Joint Entrance

Examination (IIT-JEE)

●All India Pre-Medical Test (AIPMT)

●Test preparation services

●Distance Learning Program

●Synchro-School Program

●Pre-Foundation Courses

●Technology based learning through:

●CPLive Centers (Live Interactive classes over

internet broadband)

●ecareerpoint.com: Online Test Series

●ISS: Infrastructure Support Services through a whollyowned

subsidiary rendering infrastructure and allied services for setting

up educational institutions

Key Focus

Reaching out

through

●Proseed Business School at Kota

●Technical Campus at Rajsamand, Rajasthan comprising of an

Engineering college, MBA College and MCA College *

●Technical Campus at Mohali, Punjab comprising of an

Engineering college and MBA College

●Career Point University at Kota *

●Career Point University at Hamirpur, Himachal Pradesh *

* Proposed

●K-12 - Global Public School, Kota

●K-12 - Global Public School, Jodhpur *

Catering to K-12 and Higher Education segments

Formal Education

Tutorial Services

Informal Education

●ECAMS: Education Consultancy and Management Services

provides necessary management services for administration of

institutes

Education Consultancy and Management Services (ECAMS) and

Infrastructure Support Services (ISS)

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CPIL offers ISS through

its wholly owned

subsidiary CP Infra

Under ECAMS, CPIL provides necessary management services which

include laying strategic plan, human resource management services,

administrative services, advisory services and information technology

related services.

Moreover, they also assist in:

Identification of appropriate locations for opening of the

schools, universities and institutes, preparation of strategies for

new schools / universities / institute.

Human resource management service for teaching as well as

non-teaching staff, administrative services, IT related services

including training to the staff, marketing, branding and

education development activities, management and

maintenance of complete financial system.

Advising and conducting cultural, social and sports activities;

advisory services including facilitation and assistance in

securing licenses, clearance and ’no-objection certificates’

required for carrying on the activities.

It also leverages upon its rich experience in understanding the

dynamics of infrastructure requirements in the education sector and

provide Infrastructure Support Services (ISS) by setting-up physical

infrastructure including land, building, furniture and computers for the

asset light institutions by outsourcing their capital intensive

infrastructure requirements and allied services.

CPIL offers this support service through its wholly owned subsidiary -

Career Point Infra Limited (CP Infra). Initially, CP Infra will incur the

capex for building up the required infra and provide the same to the

trust / society for lease rentals.

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Exhibit 7: CPIL’s projects for ECAMS and ISS

Source: Company, SKP Research

Exhibit 8: Corporate Structure and Revenue Model

Source: Company, SKP Research

to open engineering,

MBA and MCA colleges

in its Career Point

Technical campuses in

Rajsamand and Mohali

We believe, CPIL can fund its capex through internal accruals and may

neither raise debt nor dilute its equity.

CPIL plans to open engineering, MBA and MCA colleges in its Career

Point Technical campuses in Rajsamand and Mohali to cater to the

unmet demand for higher education in the state, while leveraging on its

strong brand, as a leading education solutions provider.

Projects Status Total Capex

(Rs. mn)

Students

Capacity

K-12 - Global Public School,

KotaOperational at present - 1,550

K-12 Global Public School,

Jodhpur

Operational by the end of

FY12E100 2,400

Career Point Technical

Campus Rajsamand,

Rajasthan

Operational in FY13E 250 540

Career Point Technical

Campus Mohali, Punjab

Operational by the end of

FY12E250 420

Career Point University,

Kota Operational in FY13E 1,200 7,000

Career Point University,

Hamirpur Operational in FY13E 1,200 7,000

Provides Test

Prep & ECAMS

Services

Develop Technology based

assessment solutions

a2zfeedback.com, a2zexam.com

Provides infrastructure

related services

Career Point

Infosystems

Ltd.

Career Point

Edutech Ltd.

Career Point

Infra Ltd.

Private

University,

Colleges etc

K - 12

Schools

Trust /

Society

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CPIL shall be able to

cater to a market of $

48.3 bn and $ 73.4 bn

by 2013 and 2018

respectively

It plans to offer Science and Technology, Business courses, Law,

M.com, Diploma in engineering, Allied Science, Allied Healthcare and

Humanities courses and vocational courses from its Career Point

University in Kota. Moreover, Science and Technology, Allied Science

and Allied Healthcare courses from its university in Hamirpur.

CPIL’s recent entry in the formal education space is likely to

immensely inflate its addressable market. CPIL shall be able to cater to

a market of $ 48.3 bn and $ 73.4 bn by 2013 and 2018 respectively.

Exhibit 9: Private Education in India – size and projected growth

Source: Industry reports

$ Mn

Segments 2008 CAGR 2013 CAGR 2018

Schooling

Pre-School 1,200 20%-25% 3,500 10%-15% 5,800

K-12 21,000 5%-10% 30,800 5%-10% 43,200

Tutorial 5,000 8%-13% 8,000 5%-10% 11,800

Books 1,700 5%-10% 2,400 3%-8% 3,000

Stationery 1,380 5%-10% 2,000 3%-8% 2,600

Education CD-ROMs 120 25%-30% 390 20%-25% 1,100

Multimedia in School 25 60%-70% 320 50%-60% 3,300

Sub Total 30,425 47,410 70,800

Higher Education

Higher Education 6,700 8%-13% 11,200 7%-12% 18,100

Preparatory 1,600 13%-18% 3,200 10%-15% 5,900

Sub Total 8,300 14,400 24,000

Vocational Education & Skill Development

Child skill enhancement 740 20%-25% 2,200 17%-22% 5,600

IT training 195 35%-45% 1,050 33%-38% 4,700

E-Learning 45 35%-45% 240 33%-38% 1,100

Finishing school 25 50%-60% 235 45%-55% 1,800

Vocational 1,500 15%-20% 3,100 10%-15% 6,200

Teacher training 15 50%-60% 140 45%-55% 1,100

Sub Total 2,520 6,965 20,500

Grand Total 41,245 68,775 115,300

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PEER COMPARISION

Source: Bloomberg, SKP Research

KEY CONCERNS

CPIL derives its major revenues from tutorial services which is

unregulated till date. But in light of increasing market for private

education centre’s and tutorials, the government may introduce a

regulation or legislation providing mandatory guidelines regarding

functioning, operation, opening of centre, enrollment of students and

fees chargeable. Such legislation would curtail the operating freedom

that CPIL enjoys and might adversely impact our estimates.

Test preparatory business is highly fragmented and competitive. CPIL

competes with various institutes that offer courses similar to theirs and

some of them have greater brand recall, better financials and other

resources than CPIL, which may enable them to compete more

effectively for future enrollments. CPIL may also face competition

from new entrants. These competitive factors may force CPIL to reduce

their tuition fees or increase their spending in order to retain or attract

faculty members and students and to pursue new market opportunities

which may have an adverse impact on enrollments, revenues and

profitability.

CPIL has recently forayed into the formal education space and is

expanding rapidly, any inability to roll in students or delay in executing

the projects could hamper our estimates.

VALUATIONS & OUTLOOK

CPIL has an unparalleled business as it operates in non-core as well as

core education space considering this and the fact that it has a stable

business model, we have used DCF to value CPIL to arrive at a price

target of Rs. 331 yielding a potential upside of 26% (15 months).

At CMP the stock trades at 19.6x and 13.9x earnings of FY12E and

FY13E respectively.

Company FY11 FY12E FY13E FY11 FY12E FY13E FY11 FY12E FY13E FY11 FY12E FY13E FY11 FY12E FY13E

CPIL 15.3 14.6 9.2 8.7 8.4 10.5 6.1 5.6 3.6 20.4 19.6 13.9 1.8 1.6 1.5

Educomp 5.9 5.1 3.9 17.4 14.6 16.2 1.6 1.3 1.1 6.5 6.1 4.7 1.0 0.9 0.7

Everonn 5.4 3.9 3.1 18.0 18.2 18.8 1.8 1.4 1.1 11.5 8.9 7.0 1.4 1.4 1.2

NIIT 5.8 5.4 4.5 16.2 16.0 17.9 0.6 0.5 0.5 8.3 6.9 6.0 1.2 1.2 1.0

P / E (x) P / BV (x)P / S (x)EV / EBITDA (x) ROE (%)

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We believe a price target of Rs. 331 is plausibly justified for CPIL,

owing to +35% EBITDA margins, robust growth in income from

operations primarily due to low base effect and foray in new avenues.

Exhibit 10: Valuing CPIL based on DCF

Exhibit 11: Valuation Matrix

Terminal growth rate (%)

331 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5%

WA

CC

9.9% 453 489 531 583 646 725 827

10.9% 380 405 435 469 509 558 618

11.9% 325 344 365 389 417 450 489

12.9% 283 297 313 331 351 374 401

13.9% 250 261 273 287 302 319 338

14.9% 223 232 241 252 263 276 291

15.9% 201 208 216 224 233 243 254

Source: SKP Research

Key Assumptions

Risk free rate (Rf) 8.4%

Beta 1.0x

Risk premium 4.6%

Cost of equity (Ke) 12.9%

Cost of Debt (Kd) 0.0%

Debt Ratio 0.0x

WACC 12.9%

TV growth 5.0%

Discounted Cash Flow (Rs. Mn) FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E

EBIT 278.9 447.2 558.6 767 917 1,067 1,205 1,321 1,403 1,444

EBIT (1-T) 185 297 370 508 608 707 799 876 931 958

Add: Depreciation 32 51 65 80 97 114 130 145 157 165

Less: Capex 749 784 602 540 477 415 352 290 227 165

Less: Change in Working Capital (82) 45 (21) (28) 47 48 47 42 33 21

FCFF (450) (482) (146) 77 181 359 531 690 827 936

Terminal Value 12,471

PV of FCFF (423) (401) (107) 50 105 184 241 278 295 4,233

EV 4,454

Add : Marketable Securities 1,322

Add : Cash 226

Less : Total Value of Debt (1)

Less : Minority Interest (0)

Value of Equity 6,001

Value / Share (Rs.) 331 17.6

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FINANCIAL OUTLOOK

Income from operations to grow by 30% CAGR between FY11-FY13E

CPIL’s top-line is expected to grow by 30% CAGR between FY11-

FY13E to Rs. 1,329 mn. Moreover, we expect tutorial services

share to come down from 98.6% in FY11 to 71.4% in FY13E, as

income from formal education shall contribute towards the rest.

Exhibit 12: Revenue Break-up

Source: Company, SKP Research

Nevertheless, it is highly improbable to factor into our estimates the

exact quantum of revenues from tutorial business, owing to the fact that

every year new set of students have to be ploughed in. However,

considering the strong brand equity that CPIL commands we

expect the tutorial business to grow at 10.6% CAGR between

FY11-FY13E.

Brief contraction in EBITDA margins…..

We anticipate a brief suppression in CPIL’s EBITDA margins

during its initial years of foraying into formal education. But as

revenues from formal education start contributing, EBITDA

margins shall normalize.

Exhibit 13: Stabilizing Margins

Source: Company, SKP Research

775 833 948

75 66

346

- -

329

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

FY11 FY12E FY13E

Tutorial Services ECAM fees CP Infra

38.6%

37.7%

36.9%

37.5%

36.0%

36.5%

37.0%

37.5%

38.0%

38.5%

39.0%

FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E

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CONSOLIDATED FINANCIALS

(All data in Rs. mn unless specified, Y/e March)

Profit & Loss Statement FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Cash Flow Statement FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E

Operating Revenues 617 786 843 1,329 Earnings before tax 273 350 365 514

Operating Expenses 378 490 532 830 Depreciation 7 13 32 51

EBITDA 238 296 311 498 Changes in Working Capital (134) (51) 82 (45)

Depreciation 7 13 32 51 Direct taxes paid (100) (119) (123) (173)

EBIT 232 283 279 447 Others (6) (34) (1) -

Other Income 42 67 87 68 Cash Flow from Operations 39 160 355 346

Financial Charges 0 1 1 1 Capital Expenditure (141) (339) (802) (798)

Earnings before Tax 273 350 365 514 Investments (357) (944) 426 400

Tax 95 118 123 173 Others 19 40 - -

Adjusted Profit After Tax 178 232 242 341 Cash Flow from Investments (480) (1,243) (376) (398)

Equity raised incl. premium 600 1,150 - -

Balance Sheet FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Inc / (Dec) in Debt (51) (1) 0 1

Dividend payout - - - -

Share Capital 144 181 181 181 Others (13) (68) 0 0

Reserves and Surplus 1,196 2,474 2,717 3,059 Cash Flow from Financing 536 1,082 0 1

Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 Net Change in Cash 95 (1) (20) (51)

Deferred Tax Liability 2 3 3 3

Total Debt 1 1 1 2 Ratios FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E

Total Liabilities 1,344 2,659 2,902 3,245

Return Ratios (%)

Net block 409 541 1,258 1,991 EBITDA Margin 38.6 37.7 36.9 37.5

Capital WIP 72 267 321 336 Net Profit Margin 28.9 29.6 28.8 25.7

Net fixed assets 481 808 1,579 2,327 Valuation Ratios (x)

Investments 382 1,326 900 500 ROE 13.3 8.7 8.4 10.5

Cash & Cash Equivalents 227 226 206 155 ROCE 11.2 7.1 6.4 9.1

Inventories 17 17 15 24 P / E 21.3 20.4 19.6 13.9

Accounts Receivable 5 10 12 18 P / BV 2.8 1.8 1.6 1.5

Loans/Advances 321 394 337 465 M.Cap / Sales 7.7 6.1 5.6 3.6

Current Assets 571 647 570 662 EV / EBITDA 19.0 15.3 14.6 9.2

Current liabilities and Provisions 106 121 146 244 Growth ratios (%)

Net current assets 465 525 423 418 Revenue 36.6 27.5 7.2 57.7

Misc. expenses 16 1 - - EBITDA 11.1 24.5 5.0 60.1

Total Assets 1,344 2,659 2,902 3,245 Net Profit 18.7 30.9 4.2 40.7

Operating Ratios (%)

Per Share Data FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Other Income / PBT 15.3 19.3 23.7 13.1

NWC / Total Assets 16.4 10.8 7.1 7.5

EPS 12.3 12.8 13.4 18.8 Asset Turnover Ratio (x) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4

CEPS 12.8 13.6 15.2 21.6 D/E (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

BVPS 93.0 146.5 159.8 178.7

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The above analysis and data are based on last available prices and not official closing rates. SKP Research is also available on Bloomberg,

Thomson First Call & Investext Myiris, Moneycontrol, Ticker plant and ISI Securities

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