Career Point Infosystems Ltd. -...
Transcript of Career Point Infosystems Ltd. -...
September 28, 2011
Career Point Infosystems Ltd.
Educating India…
CMP Rs. 262 Target Rs. 331 Initiating Coverage - Buy
SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 1 of 15
Analyst: Vikesh P. Mehta
Tel No.:+91 22 2281 9012, Mob: +91 9819 602 602
Email: [email protected]
COMPANY PROFILE Career Point Infosystems Ltd. (CPIL) is a leading test preparatory service
provider, the company primarily focuses on providing tutorial services for
various competitive entrance examinations like AIEEE, IIT-JEE, AIPMT and
PDT. The company provides these services through company operated
training centres, franchisee centres and distance learning programmes. The
company has recently forayed into K-12 schools and higher education.
Key Share Data
Face Value (Rs.) 10
Equity Capital (Rs. Mn.) 181
M Cap.(Rs. Mn.) 4,704
52-wk High / Low (Rs.) 711 / 255
Avg. Daily Volume (NSE) 9,124
BSE code 533260
NSE code CPIL
Reuters code CARP.BO
Bloomberg code CRPT IN
Shareholding Pattern (as on 30th June, 2011)
Financials (Consolidated) (Rs. mn)
Particulars FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
Operating Rev 617 786 843 1,329
Growth (%) 36.6 27.5 7.2 57.7
EBIDTA 238 296 311 498
PAT 178 233 243 341
Growth (%) 18.7 30.9 4.2 40.7
CEPS (Rs.) 12.8 13.6 15.2 21.6
EPS (Rs.) 12.3 12.8 13.4 18.8
Key Ratios FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
Div. Yield (%) - - - -
P / E (x) 21.3 20.4 19.6 13.9
P / BV (x) 2.8 1.8 1.6 1.5
P / CEPS (x) 20.5 19.3 17.3 12.1
M.Cap/Sales(x) 7.7 6.1 5.6 3.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 19.0 15.3 14.6 9.2
ROCE (%) 11.2 7.1 6.4 9.1
ROE (%) 13.3 8.7 8.4 10.5
EBITDA M. (%) 38.6 37.7 36.9 37.5
NPM (%) 28.9 29.6 28.8 25.7
Debt-Equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
I year Performance CRPT v/s BSE SMALL CAP
INVESTMENT RATIONALE
Strong foothold in the test preparatory market…
CPIL is an established player in the test preparatory service business
and a leading brand in the AIEEE segment, which is displayed by the
increasing number students enrollments with Career Point for
AIEEE.
In order to expand its footprints in its core business, CPIL aims to
open 10 company operated training centres and 5 franchisees each
year till FY14E at strategic locations to create hubs like Kota.
CPIL is a market leader in the engineering tutoring market hub
– Kota, as it coaches more than 25% of the students enrolled in
Kota each year. To address such immense demand, CPIL plans to
incur a capex of Rs. 650 mn and build an integrated campus for 3000
occupants.
Formal education…. subsequent focus area
CPIL forayed into formal education through its educational
consulting and management services (ECAMS) business unit of late
to provide ECAMS to privately and / or government-run schools,
colleges and universities. It also intends to enter into partnerships
with the governments under the PPP model to manage schools,
colleges and universities in rural and/or urban areas. CPIL shall
charge ECAMS fees for the same.
It also leverages upon its rich experience in understanding the
dynamics of infrastructure requirements in the education sector and
provide Infrastructure Support Services (ISS) by setting-up physical
infrastructure including land, building, furniture and computers for
the asset light institutions by outsourcing their capital intensive
infrastructure requirements and allied services.
CPIL offers this support service through its wholly owned subsidiary
- Career Point Infra Limited (CP Infra). Initially, CP Infra will incur
the capex for building up the required infra and provide the same to
the trust / society for lease rentals.
Promoter
59.9%Bodies
Corp.
12.2%
DII
15.4%FII 0.2%
Other
12.3%
Source: Company
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
CRPT IN BSE_SMALLCAPVALUATION At CMP the stock trades at 19.6x and 13.9x earnings of FY12E and FY13E
respectively. We have valued CPIL based on DCF at CMP and arrived at
a target price of Rs. 331 yielding a potential upside of 26% (15 months),
valuing the stock at 24.7x and 17.6x P/E on FY12E, FY13E EPS of Rs.
13.4 and Rs. 18.8 respectively.
Career Point Infosystems Ltd.
SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 2 of 15
Third largest education
system globally.
largest education market
in the world.
largest services market
in India.
Government increasing
focus and spending.
30% Gross Enrollment
Ratio targeted by 2020.
At US$ 5.1 billion, the
tuitions market forms
80% of the coaching
class opportunity
INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
India has the third largest education system globally, after China and
the US, with over one million schools and over 26,000 higher
education institutions. With a population of approximately 572 million
in the 0-24 age bracket, it is also the largest education market in the
world. Education sector is the largest services market in India with a
market size of more than 450 million students and $ 57 billion per
annum (as of 2009). The landscape is primarily dominated by central
and state government funded and managed institutions with ~79% of
all schools being government schools.
India’s Gross Enrolment Ratio is at 13%, which is less than half the
global average. The Government has set itself a highly aggressive
target of achieving 30% GER by 2020.
In 2009, the Core / formal / regulated segment accounted for USD 45
billion and the Non-core / informal / unregulated segment for USD 12
billion of the total education market. This is expected to grow to USD
65 billion and USD 20 billion by 2012 at a CAGR of 13% and 18%
respectively.
The highly fragmented and regional coaching classes market accounts
for a sizeable chunk of the informal education market in India. Most
coaching classes run under the aegis of individuals or informal
partnerships. At US$ 5.1 billion, the tuitions market forms 80% of the
coaching class opportunity, and are inherently difficult to scale up.
A highly fragmented market, the business is person-centric and
individual teachers attached to schools/colleges are in great demand.
The coaching class market is growing at 15%, led by a scarcity of
quality institutions in India and stiff competition for entry into
professional colleges. Notably, 80% of the market lies in subject-based
tutoring in schools and colleges – highly dependent on local teachers.
The GOI allocated Rs. 420 billion to regulate and internationalise the
education system in the budget 2011-12.
Career Point Infosystems Ltd.
SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 3 of 15
Exhibit 1: Framework of Indian Education
Source: Company, SKP Research
formal education space
is regulated and forms
80% of the overall
education market.
The formal education space is regulated and has a dominant share of
~80% in the overall education market. Whereas, the informal segment
is largely unregulated.
Low levels of regulation have been a catalyst in creation of quality
education in developed countries, but Indian education systems are
archaic and act as a hurdle in promoting the increase in capacity and
improvement in quality.
Currently, the government regulates who can teach, what you can teach
them and what you can charge them. It also has huge regulatory
bottlenecks. There are considerable entry barriers: Universities can be
set up only through acts of legislation, approval procedures for starting
new courses are cumbersome, syllabi revision is slow, and accreditation
systems are extremely weak and arbitrary.
Develop Technology based
assessment solutions
a2zfeedback.com,
Indian Education
System
Core / FormalNon-core /
Informal
Schools (K-
12)
Higher
Education
Pre-
schools
Multimedia
Vocational
Training
Books
Coaching
Classes
Career Point Infosystems Ltd.
SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 4 of 15
Career Point
Infosystems Ltd. (CPIL)
has progressively
emerged as one of the
leading test preparatory
service provider
As on Q1FY12, the
company operated 12
company owned centres
and 11 franchisee
centres
COMPANY PROFILE
Incorporated in March 2000 by the Maheshwari family, Career Point
Infosystems Ltd. (CPIL) has progressively emerged as one of the
leading test preparatory service provider since it was founded in the
engineering tutoring market hub - Kota in 1993. With a 17 year history
of providing education solutions, its CMD and CEO Mr. Pramod
Maheshwari has played a pivotal role in building the strong brand
equity that CPIL enjoys in the education sector.
Hitherto, the company primarily focuses on providing tutorial services
to high school and post high school students for various competitive
entrance examinations like All India Engineering Entrance
Examination (AIEEE), Indian Institute of Technology-Joint Entrance
Examination (IIT-JEE) and All India Pre-Medical (AIPMT) and Pre-
Dental Test (PDT). The company provides these services through
company operated training centres, franchisee centres and distance
learning programmes.
As on Q1FY12, the company operated 12 company owned centres and
11 franchisee centres. Moreover, CPIL recently appointed 4 franchisees
for CPLive wherein it provides live tutorial services and interactive
two-way communication mode over internet broadband.
The company has recently forayed into formal education by managing
K-12 building up technical campuses and universities.
Exhibit 2: Key Management Team
Name Designation Profile
Mr. Pramod Maheshwari Chairman, Managing Director & CEO
B.Tech from IIT Delhi, been a founder director of Career Point since
March 2000 and has over 17 years of experience in developing and
implementing training methodologies
Mr. Om Prakash
Maheshwari Wholetime Director & CFO
Co-founder of Career Point and is responsible for all project
implementation as well as financial and legal matters
Mr. Nawal Kishore
Maheshwari Wholetime Director
Associated with the Company since incorporation and is in-charge of
various functions including administration, liasoning and other day to day
affairs of the Company
Mr. Shailendra
Maheshwari
Sr. Vice President –Academics &
Product Development
With Career Point group since 1995, Working experience of 13 years in
the teaching field, Formulates and monitors the implementation of an effective academic system Company wide.
Mr. Mithilesh Dixit Sr. Vice President -School & Vocational Education
Over 27 years experience in the army, academic and corporate sector with
specific exposure to corporate affairs, Current responsibilities include
managing the formal and vocational education departments
Mr. Rajnish Goyal Vice-President Academics -Test
Preparation
Spent nine years in the field of education, Currently, he is overall in
charge of the mathematics department.
Source: Company
Career Point Infosystems Ltd.
SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 5 of 15
a prevailing brand in
the AIEEE segment
CPIL now aims to
revive its waning
AIPMT segment. The
company recently
appointed a strong
faculty team for AIPMT
INVESTMENT RATIONALE
Strong foothold in the test preparatory market…
CPIL is an established player in the test preparatory service business
and a prevailing brand in the AIEEE segment, which is displayed by
the increasing number students enrollments with Career Point for
AIEEE (Exhibit 4).
Notwithstanding the fact that enrollments are volatile in the IIT-JEE
segment, the average realization per student has increased with CPIL
primarily by hiking fees across various segments due to its pricing
power, increasing volume in the AIEEE segment and its discretion to
shut down loss making franchisees.
Exhibit 3: Trend in enrollments and avg. realisation
Source: Company, SKP Research
Subsequent to establishing a market share in the AIEEE segment, CPIL
now aims to revive its waning AIPMT segment. The company recently
appointed a strong faculty team for AIPMT and the success of this
decision is evident from the sudden spurt in the enrollments for AIPMT
(Exhibit 4).
Availability of quality teachers determines the success of the tutorial
business. In order to reduce the risk of dependence on any one
particular tutor, CPIL has bifurcated its subjects into topics and each
topic is thought by many tutors.
24,682 28,016 27,710 31,798 32,766
11,779 13,572
16,294 19,201
23,653
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
Total no of students Avg. Realisation / Student (Rs.)
Career Point Infosystems Ltd.
SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 6 of 15
CPIL aims to open 10
company operated
training centres and 5
franchisees each year
till FY14E
plans to incur a capex
of Rs. 650 mn to build
an integrated campus
for 3000 occupants
Exhibit 4: Students enrollments with various segments
Source: Company, SKP Research
We believe CPIL’s test preparatory business will perform well owing
to few well prominent brands operating in the sector, ever increasing
number of students appearing for the tests and primarily due to intense
competition among the students attributable by the limited availability
of seats for the respective segments.
Exhibit 5: Stats for competitive exams
Source: SKP Research, IIT-JEE website, Industry
In order to expand its footprints in its core business, CPIL aims to open
10 company operated training centres and 5 franchisees each year till
FY14E at strategic locations to create hubs like Kota.
CPIL is a market leader in the engineering tutoring market hub –
Kota, as it coaches more than 25% of the students enrolled in Kota
each year. To address such immense demand, CPIL plans to incur a
capex of Rs. 650 mn and provide better amenities like lodging, canteen,
accommodation for visiting parents, etc. to its captive students and
build an integrated campus for 3000 occupants and charge a nominal
fee of Rs. 7000 – 8000 pm. This facility will start contributing to
CPIL’s top line by the end of FY12E.
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11
AIEEE 15,628 16,730 20,640 18,645
IIT-JEE 5,164 4,296 5,560 6,310
AIPMT 1,643 1,141 908 4,117
Distance Learning 5,581 5,543 4,690 3,694
Total 28,016 27,710 31,798 32,766
9,618
27,752
6,429
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
IIT-JEE AIEEE AIPMT
Students Appeared (LHS) Seats Available (RHS)
Career Point Infosystems Ltd.
SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 7 of 15
Apart from this the company plans to leverage on technology, such as
CPLive, to target markets where it is not viable to open company
operated training centres.
Another such pivotal initiative to obtain access to broader student base
is Synchro School - wherein CPIL provides tutoring for entrance
examination integrated with school education through association with
schools as a corollary CPIL saves on infra costs, incurs minimal
marketing costs and has relatively less investment.
Exhibit 6: Gamut of offering in CPIL universe
Source: Company
CPIL forayed into
formal education to
provide ECAMS to
privately and/or
Government-run
schools, colleges and
universities.
Formal education…. subsequent focus area
CPIL forayed into formal education through its educational consulting
and management services (ECAMS) business unit of late to provide
ECAMS to privately and/or Government-run schools, colleges and
universities. It also intends to enter into partnerships with the
governments under the PPP model to manage schools, colleges and
universities in rural and/or urban areas. CPIL shall charge ECAMS fees
for the same.
Tutorial services to high school and post high school
students for competitive examinations like:
●All India Engineering Entrance Examination (AIEEE)
●State Level Engineering Entrance Examination
(SLEEE)
●Indian Institute of Technology -Joint Entrance
Examination (IIT-JEE)
●All India Pre-Medical Test (AIPMT)
●Test preparation services
●Distance Learning Program
●Synchro-School Program
●Pre-Foundation Courses
●Technology based learning through:
●CPLive Centers (Live Interactive classes over
internet broadband)
●ecareerpoint.com: Online Test Series
●ISS: Infrastructure Support Services through a whollyowned
subsidiary rendering infrastructure and allied services for setting
up educational institutions
Key Focus
Reaching out
through
●Proseed Business School at Kota
●Technical Campus at Rajsamand, Rajasthan comprising of an
Engineering college, MBA College and MCA College *
●Technical Campus at Mohali, Punjab comprising of an
Engineering college and MBA College
●Career Point University at Kota *
●Career Point University at Hamirpur, Himachal Pradesh *
* Proposed
●K-12 - Global Public School, Kota
●K-12 - Global Public School, Jodhpur *
Catering to K-12 and Higher Education segments
Formal Education
Tutorial Services
Informal Education
●ECAMS: Education Consultancy and Management Services
provides necessary management services for administration of
institutes
Education Consultancy and Management Services (ECAMS) and
Infrastructure Support Services (ISS)
Career Point Infosystems Ltd.
SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 8 of 15
CPIL offers ISS through
its wholly owned
subsidiary CP Infra
Under ECAMS, CPIL provides necessary management services which
include laying strategic plan, human resource management services,
administrative services, advisory services and information technology
related services.
Moreover, they also assist in:
Identification of appropriate locations for opening of the
schools, universities and institutes, preparation of strategies for
new schools / universities / institute.
Human resource management service for teaching as well as
non-teaching staff, administrative services, IT related services
including training to the staff, marketing, branding and
education development activities, management and
maintenance of complete financial system.
Advising and conducting cultural, social and sports activities;
advisory services including facilitation and assistance in
securing licenses, clearance and ’no-objection certificates’
required for carrying on the activities.
It also leverages upon its rich experience in understanding the
dynamics of infrastructure requirements in the education sector and
provide Infrastructure Support Services (ISS) by setting-up physical
infrastructure including land, building, furniture and computers for the
asset light institutions by outsourcing their capital intensive
infrastructure requirements and allied services.
CPIL offers this support service through its wholly owned subsidiary -
Career Point Infra Limited (CP Infra). Initially, CP Infra will incur the
capex for building up the required infra and provide the same to the
trust / society for lease rentals.
Career Point Infosystems Ltd.
SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 9 of 15
Exhibit 7: CPIL’s projects for ECAMS and ISS
Source: Company, SKP Research
Exhibit 8: Corporate Structure and Revenue Model
Source: Company, SKP Research
to open engineering,
MBA and MCA colleges
in its Career Point
Technical campuses in
Rajsamand and Mohali
We believe, CPIL can fund its capex through internal accruals and may
neither raise debt nor dilute its equity.
CPIL plans to open engineering, MBA and MCA colleges in its Career
Point Technical campuses in Rajsamand and Mohali to cater to the
unmet demand for higher education in the state, while leveraging on its
strong brand, as a leading education solutions provider.
Projects Status Total Capex
(Rs. mn)
Students
Capacity
K-12 - Global Public School,
KotaOperational at present - 1,550
K-12 Global Public School,
Jodhpur
Operational by the end of
FY12E100 2,400
Career Point Technical
Campus Rajsamand,
Rajasthan
Operational in FY13E 250 540
Career Point Technical
Campus Mohali, Punjab
Operational by the end of
FY12E250 420
Career Point University,
Kota Operational in FY13E 1,200 7,000
Career Point University,
Hamirpur Operational in FY13E 1,200 7,000
Provides Test
Prep & ECAMS
Services
Develop Technology based
assessment solutions
a2zfeedback.com, a2zexam.com
Provides infrastructure
related services
Career Point
Infosystems
Ltd.
Career Point
Edutech Ltd.
Career Point
Infra Ltd.
Private
University,
Colleges etc
K - 12
Schools
Trust /
Society
Career Point Infosystems Ltd.
SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 10 of 15
CPIL shall be able to
cater to a market of $
48.3 bn and $ 73.4 bn
by 2013 and 2018
respectively
It plans to offer Science and Technology, Business courses, Law,
M.com, Diploma in engineering, Allied Science, Allied Healthcare and
Humanities courses and vocational courses from its Career Point
University in Kota. Moreover, Science and Technology, Allied Science
and Allied Healthcare courses from its university in Hamirpur.
CPIL’s recent entry in the formal education space is likely to
immensely inflate its addressable market. CPIL shall be able to cater to
a market of $ 48.3 bn and $ 73.4 bn by 2013 and 2018 respectively.
Exhibit 9: Private Education in India – size and projected growth
Source: Industry reports
$ Mn
Segments 2008 CAGR 2013 CAGR 2018
Schooling
Pre-School 1,200 20%-25% 3,500 10%-15% 5,800
K-12 21,000 5%-10% 30,800 5%-10% 43,200
Tutorial 5,000 8%-13% 8,000 5%-10% 11,800
Books 1,700 5%-10% 2,400 3%-8% 3,000
Stationery 1,380 5%-10% 2,000 3%-8% 2,600
Education CD-ROMs 120 25%-30% 390 20%-25% 1,100
Multimedia in School 25 60%-70% 320 50%-60% 3,300
Sub Total 30,425 47,410 70,800
Higher Education
Higher Education 6,700 8%-13% 11,200 7%-12% 18,100
Preparatory 1,600 13%-18% 3,200 10%-15% 5,900
Sub Total 8,300 14,400 24,000
Vocational Education & Skill Development
Child skill enhancement 740 20%-25% 2,200 17%-22% 5,600
IT training 195 35%-45% 1,050 33%-38% 4,700
E-Learning 45 35%-45% 240 33%-38% 1,100
Finishing school 25 50%-60% 235 45%-55% 1,800
Vocational 1,500 15%-20% 3,100 10%-15% 6,200
Teacher training 15 50%-60% 140 45%-55% 1,100
Sub Total 2,520 6,965 20,500
Grand Total 41,245 68,775 115,300
Career Point Infosystems Ltd.
SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 11 of 15
PEER COMPARISION
Source: Bloomberg, SKP Research
KEY CONCERNS
CPIL derives its major revenues from tutorial services which is
unregulated till date. But in light of increasing market for private
education centre’s and tutorials, the government may introduce a
regulation or legislation providing mandatory guidelines regarding
functioning, operation, opening of centre, enrollment of students and
fees chargeable. Such legislation would curtail the operating freedom
that CPIL enjoys and might adversely impact our estimates.
Test preparatory business is highly fragmented and competitive. CPIL
competes with various institutes that offer courses similar to theirs and
some of them have greater brand recall, better financials and other
resources than CPIL, which may enable them to compete more
effectively for future enrollments. CPIL may also face competition
from new entrants. These competitive factors may force CPIL to reduce
their tuition fees or increase their spending in order to retain or attract
faculty members and students and to pursue new market opportunities
which may have an adverse impact on enrollments, revenues and
profitability.
CPIL has recently forayed into the formal education space and is
expanding rapidly, any inability to roll in students or delay in executing
the projects could hamper our estimates.
VALUATIONS & OUTLOOK
CPIL has an unparalleled business as it operates in non-core as well as
core education space considering this and the fact that it has a stable
business model, we have used DCF to value CPIL to arrive at a price
target of Rs. 331 yielding a potential upside of 26% (15 months).
At CMP the stock trades at 19.6x and 13.9x earnings of FY12E and
FY13E respectively.
Company FY11 FY12E FY13E FY11 FY12E FY13E FY11 FY12E FY13E FY11 FY12E FY13E FY11 FY12E FY13E
CPIL 15.3 14.6 9.2 8.7 8.4 10.5 6.1 5.6 3.6 20.4 19.6 13.9 1.8 1.6 1.5
Educomp 5.9 5.1 3.9 17.4 14.6 16.2 1.6 1.3 1.1 6.5 6.1 4.7 1.0 0.9 0.7
Everonn 5.4 3.9 3.1 18.0 18.2 18.8 1.8 1.4 1.1 11.5 8.9 7.0 1.4 1.4 1.2
NIIT 5.8 5.4 4.5 16.2 16.0 17.9 0.6 0.5 0.5 8.3 6.9 6.0 1.2 1.2 1.0
P / E (x) P / BV (x)P / S (x)EV / EBITDA (x) ROE (%)
Career Point Infosystems Ltd.
SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 12 of 15
We believe a price target of Rs. 331 is plausibly justified for CPIL,
owing to +35% EBITDA margins, robust growth in income from
operations primarily due to low base effect and foray in new avenues.
Exhibit 10: Valuing CPIL based on DCF
Exhibit 11: Valuation Matrix
Terminal growth rate (%)
331 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5%
WA
CC
9.9% 453 489 531 583 646 725 827
10.9% 380 405 435 469 509 558 618
11.9% 325 344 365 389 417 450 489
12.9% 283 297 313 331 351 374 401
13.9% 250 261 273 287 302 319 338
14.9% 223 232 241 252 263 276 291
15.9% 201 208 216 224 233 243 254
Source: SKP Research
Key Assumptions
Risk free rate (Rf) 8.4%
Beta 1.0x
Risk premium 4.6%
Cost of equity (Ke) 12.9%
Cost of Debt (Kd) 0.0%
Debt Ratio 0.0x
WACC 12.9%
TV growth 5.0%
Discounted Cash Flow (Rs. Mn) FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E
EBIT 278.9 447.2 558.6 767 917 1,067 1,205 1,321 1,403 1,444
EBIT (1-T) 185 297 370 508 608 707 799 876 931 958
Add: Depreciation 32 51 65 80 97 114 130 145 157 165
Less: Capex 749 784 602 540 477 415 352 290 227 165
Less: Change in Working Capital (82) 45 (21) (28) 47 48 47 42 33 21
FCFF (450) (482) (146) 77 181 359 531 690 827 936
Terminal Value 12,471
PV of FCFF (423) (401) (107) 50 105 184 241 278 295 4,233
EV 4,454
Add : Marketable Securities 1,322
Add : Cash 226
Less : Total Value of Debt (1)
Less : Minority Interest (0)
Value of Equity 6,001
Value / Share (Rs.) 331 17.6
Career Point Infosystems Ltd.
SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 13 of 15
FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
Income from operations to grow by 30% CAGR between FY11-FY13E
CPIL’s top-line is expected to grow by 30% CAGR between FY11-
FY13E to Rs. 1,329 mn. Moreover, we expect tutorial services
share to come down from 98.6% in FY11 to 71.4% in FY13E, as
income from formal education shall contribute towards the rest.
Exhibit 12: Revenue Break-up
Source: Company, SKP Research
Nevertheless, it is highly improbable to factor into our estimates the
exact quantum of revenues from tutorial business, owing to the fact that
every year new set of students have to be ploughed in. However,
considering the strong brand equity that CPIL commands we
expect the tutorial business to grow at 10.6% CAGR between
FY11-FY13E.
Brief contraction in EBITDA margins…..
We anticipate a brief suppression in CPIL’s EBITDA margins
during its initial years of foraying into formal education. But as
revenues from formal education start contributing, EBITDA
margins shall normalize.
Exhibit 13: Stabilizing Margins
Source: Company, SKP Research
775 833 948
75 66
346
- -
329
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
FY11 FY12E FY13E
Tutorial Services ECAM fees CP Infra
38.6%
37.7%
36.9%
37.5%
36.0%
36.5%
37.0%
37.5%
38.0%
38.5%
39.0%
FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
Career Point Infosystems Ltd.
SKP Securities Ltd www.skpmoneywise.com Page 14 of 15
CONSOLIDATED FINANCIALS
(All data in Rs. mn unless specified, Y/e March)
Profit & Loss Statement FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Cash Flow Statement FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
Operating Revenues 617 786 843 1,329 Earnings before tax 273 350 365 514
Operating Expenses 378 490 532 830 Depreciation 7 13 32 51
EBITDA 238 296 311 498 Changes in Working Capital (134) (51) 82 (45)
Depreciation 7 13 32 51 Direct taxes paid (100) (119) (123) (173)
EBIT 232 283 279 447 Others (6) (34) (1) -
Other Income 42 67 87 68 Cash Flow from Operations 39 160 355 346
Financial Charges 0 1 1 1 Capital Expenditure (141) (339) (802) (798)
Earnings before Tax 273 350 365 514 Investments (357) (944) 426 400
Tax 95 118 123 173 Others 19 40 - -
Adjusted Profit After Tax 178 232 242 341 Cash Flow from Investments (480) (1,243) (376) (398)
Equity raised incl. premium 600 1,150 - -
Balance Sheet FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Inc / (Dec) in Debt (51) (1) 0 1
Dividend payout - - - -
Share Capital 144 181 181 181 Others (13) (68) 0 0
Reserves and Surplus 1,196 2,474 2,717 3,059 Cash Flow from Financing 536 1,082 0 1
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 Net Change in Cash 95 (1) (20) (51)
Deferred Tax Liability 2 3 3 3
Total Debt 1 1 1 2 Ratios FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
Total Liabilities 1,344 2,659 2,902 3,245
Return Ratios (%)
Net block 409 541 1,258 1,991 EBITDA Margin 38.6 37.7 36.9 37.5
Capital WIP 72 267 321 336 Net Profit Margin 28.9 29.6 28.8 25.7
Net fixed assets 481 808 1,579 2,327 Valuation Ratios (x)
Investments 382 1,326 900 500 ROE 13.3 8.7 8.4 10.5
Cash & Cash Equivalents 227 226 206 155 ROCE 11.2 7.1 6.4 9.1
Inventories 17 17 15 24 P / E 21.3 20.4 19.6 13.9
Accounts Receivable 5 10 12 18 P / BV 2.8 1.8 1.6 1.5
Loans/Advances 321 394 337 465 M.Cap / Sales 7.7 6.1 5.6 3.6
Current Assets 571 647 570 662 EV / EBITDA 19.0 15.3 14.6 9.2
Current liabilities and Provisions 106 121 146 244 Growth ratios (%)
Net current assets 465 525 423 418 Revenue 36.6 27.5 7.2 57.7
Misc. expenses 16 1 - - EBITDA 11.1 24.5 5.0 60.1
Total Assets 1,344 2,659 2,902 3,245 Net Profit 18.7 30.9 4.2 40.7
Operating Ratios (%)
Per Share Data FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Other Income / PBT 15.3 19.3 23.7 13.1
NWC / Total Assets 16.4 10.8 7.1 7.5
EPS 12.3 12.8 13.4 18.8 Asset Turnover Ratio (x) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4
CEPS 12.8 13.6 15.2 21.6 D/E (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
BVPS 93.0 146.5 159.8 178.7
Career Point Infosystems Ltd.
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INB/INF: 230707532, BSE INB: 010707538, CDSL IN-DP-CDSL-132-2000, DPID: 021800, NSDL IN-DP-NSDL: 222-2001, DP ID: IN302646, ARN: 0006, NCDEX: 00715, MCX: 31705, MCX-SX: INE 260707532