CARBON FREE ELECTRICITY: CAN TECHNOLOGY BEAT GLOBAL WARMING?

04/19/[email protected]

1

CARBON FREE ELECTRICITY: CAN TECHNOLOGY BEAT

GLOBAL WARMING?

A Cost Analysis of Fossil, Nuclear, & Renewable Energy Options and how they

can evolve in the 21st Century.

Predictions of Doom merely point out avoidable futures.

Brendan McNamara, Leabrook Computing,2006MIT January 2007

UKAEA Culham March 2007


2

SUMMARY

•Motivated by UK Energy Review of 2006.

•Fair comparison basis of all costs for Coal, Gas, Nuclear, Wind, & Solar

• 3 Cost Comparisons: Costs for kW-hours, Power Stations, and 50 year Power Systems

HOMEWORK

•Examine Technical Solutions for problems of each option.

•Discuss Local, National, and International actions to beat Global Warming.


3

CARBON DIOXIDE

Atmosphere 2800 Gt

Ocean 143,000 GtAbsorbs 8.5 Gt/yr

Land 9170 GtAbsorbs 3.8 Gt/yr

Fossil Fuels Emit 24 Gt/yrFOSSIL RESERVESOil 542 GtGas 347 Gt

Coal 2454 GtCoal 2454 Gt


4

UK ENERGY REVIEW 2006“CANYON HORIZON”

WITH 3 MISSING MATTERS

• NO NEW TECHNOLOGIES

• PEAK OIL IGNORED

• IMPACT OF POVERTY ON ENERGY SECURITY UNMENTIONED

Note:Australian Review, Nov. 2006 is very similar.


5

PEAK OIL & GAS• ASPO

predictions.

• Pre-2005 is jagged. Economy follows.

• US DoE: Massive mitigation needed 20 yrs before peak.

• We MUST avoid resource wars!!


6

CO2 SCENARIOS• Population 8Bn

• A1F1: Business as usual Meltdown

• B1: Service & IT economy. Low technology.

• A1T: Technolgy growth with equity.

• Peak Oil, War, Poverty ignored.


7

YOUR ENERGY BILLS

English home uses ~3500kWh per year at 8.5 p/kWh

&~30,000kWh of Gas Central Heating at

2.4 p/kWh

Annual Cost ~ £1021( x 1.85 in US $)

EU Car: 10,000m @ 30 mph & 30mpgUses 30,000 kWh for £1200


8

COSTS I: 8 ENERGY SYSTEMSpence/kWh (RAE)

Fig. 1. ELECTRICITY COST COMPONENTS

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

20.00

PWR GT-MHR WindOnshore

Coal 2006 GasCCGT

WindOffshore

MicroWind

MicroSolar PV

2006StreetPrice

p/k

Wh

r

PLANT FUEL EXTRA FUEL WASTE/CO2 BACKUP


9

PV SOLAR ROOFTOP

Panels: £4k – £6k /kWp

UK Annual kWh : 1004 kWh/kWp

Service Life : 20 years

Solar Electricity : 19-30p/kWh

SHELL SOLAR

M.P. Peter Hain, ‘Doing his bit.’ Sunshine in Oxford & Mallorca


10

ROOFTOP WINDMILL

Windmill: £1874 for 1 kWp

UK Annual kWh : 1000 kWh

= 1 MWh

Service Life : 10 years

Windmill Electricity is 18.7 p/kWh


11

WELSH WINDMILLS


12

WELSH WINDMILL SITE

• Windmill farms occupy far more land than just their windmill footprints.


13

A 632MW WINDMILL FARM• ENERGY

ASSESSMENT OF TAN 8 WIND ENERGY STRATEGIC SEARCH AREAS for Welsh Development Agency

• 316 x 80m high Windmills at 2MW each.

• 35% duty factor? Output is spiky & intermittent, average 221 MW.

• Roads, services, forest clearance.


14

DANISH WIND FARMS

• 5240 windmills• 3.1 GWe peak• 80% Exported

to Norway.• Norway uses

98% Hydro

• No CO2 displaced


15

COAL & GAS

GAS: Depends on the price of gas.

GAS power was cheap in 2003. Now it is more expensive than Coal.

COAL: The dirtiest fuel.

Neither should be built without CO2 WASTE DISPOSAL.


16

CARBON CAPTURE & STORAGE

•IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – CCS Costs, 2006

•Supercritical boilers make Coal up to 50% efficient.

•Capture equipment for ALL emissions (SO2, NO, CO2 …) is expensive.

•Pipelines in densely populated UK are the most expensive.

•CO2 burial in DISTANT MARINE oilfields is the most costly.

•IS CCS TOO COSTLY FOR THE UK?


17

BP PETERHEAD CCS• Global annual Government support for CCS is ~£100M


18

CCS + EOR in BOURNEMOUTH BAY

BP Wytch Farm 1 Gb OilfieldIn Depletion.

Closes in 2015 without some Extended Oil Recovery

3GW Coal Station with CCSPumps CO2 to recover3 Barrels oil per tonne.


19

CCS TOO LATE?

D.Hawkins, NRDC, 2006This reflects current policy and is not inevitable


20

- LIQUID FUELS -MORE VALUABLE THAN

ELECTRICITY?Coal-to-Diesel

1 tonne Coal Syngas Fischer-Tropf 2 Barrels Diesel +

2.7 tonnes CO2Montana/Wyoming

$35/barrelAustralia + CCS

$50/barrelNuclear Process Heat converts all Coal to

Diesel. (Forsberg, ORNL)Opencast Coal Mine in Transvaal


21

FRENCH EPR REACTOR

PROBLEM: SPENT FUEL TREATED AS WASTEPROBLEM: SPENT FUEL TREATED AS WASTE


22

‘SPENT FUEL’ IS STILL FUEL

SPENT FUEL IS 94.5% FUEL.

PWR FUEL

4.5% 235U

95.5% 238U

SPENT FUEL1.1% 235U

92.0% 238U

0.12% Acts.

1.3% Pu

5.5% ASH


23

MILLION YEAR TRISO FUEL

Contains all fission Products for 1 million years

Any Fuel: U, Pu, Actinides enriched to 20%

No Pu leakage to contaminate structures No long lived ILW


24

DEEP BURN GT-MHR

4842

3630

24

General Atomics: Inflammable – No Meltdown –

Burns U, Pu, Actinide Waste – High Temperature (900 C)

50% Thermal Efficiency – No Pu leakage – 300 year ILW.

Weapons Pu Burner in RussiaGA, Framatome, Minatom, Toshiba


25

UK NUCLEAR HISTORYSIZEWELL-A

MAGNOX

SIZEWELL-B PWR

14 YEAR FILIBUSTER

CANCELLED 8 NEW REACTORS

500 Mt CO2

SIZEWELL-CFRENCH EPR


26

AGR CORE ASSEMBLYMAGNOX RUN ON NATURAL URANIUM.

AGRs USE LOW ENRICHMENT – 3.5%.

HARD TO MAINTAIN.

SIZEWELL PWR – end of the line for UK AGRs.

ALL UK NUCLEAR INFRASTRUCTURE CLOSED OR SOLD AT GIVEAWAY PRICES


27

COSTS II. For GWe YEARS

Fig. 2. CAPITAL COSTS FOR GWe-YEAR PLANTS. Micro Wind £16Bn & Micro Solar £35Bn not shown.

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

PWR GT-MHR Wind Onshore Coal 2006 GasCCGT

Wind Offshore

£Bil

lio

n

PLANT WITH CO2 Capture & Store


28

CONSERVATION

Vital to slow the decline of oil & gas.

Electrify Public TransportEfficient engines, New Fuels, Carpools

Enforce efficiency in all appliances, buildings, and industries.

Cut waste from your energy budget.Woollen Sweaters, Cold Showers.


29

COSTS III. UK 10GWe x 50 Years

Fig. 3. TOTALS FOR 10 GWe SYSTEMS FOR 50 YEARS

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

PWR GT-MHR Wind Onshore Coal 2006 Gas CCGT Wind Offshore

£ B

illi

on

s

PLANT WASTE FUEL BACKUP EXTRA FUEL CO2 CAPTURE & STORE


30

NUCLEAR FUELS

All Thorium, Uranium, Plutonium, Neptunium, & higher Actinides can be transmuted and fissioned.

Each tonne yields 1000 MWth-days

DT Fusion fuel gives 5000 MWth-days

+DEPLETED 0.3% 235U

NATURAL 0.7% 235U

ENRICHED 4.5 %


31

DEPLETED URANIUM

ENERGY VALUE$1.5 Bn EACH


32

20 Mt URANIUM: IAEA RED BOOK

Uranium: Assured, Expected, Speculative

0.42 0.251

2.559 2.040.5643

0.2102

0.914 1.833

0.47460.1044

0.1044

1.178

0.615

0.0996

0.18

2.6

0.242

0.219

0.5826

4.476

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

RAR EAR-I EAR-2 SPEC

Decreasing Confidence

U3O

8 M

ton

nes

N.A FSU Aus Africa Rest

750 PWRs WILL USE ALL THIS URANIUM


33

6 URANIUM RESOURCE MODELS

• W. Schneider, LANL: All 6 models assume supply driven by price.

• WNA (SC-O) gives S ~ P 3.35 Over 1000x DANESS model at $250/kg.

• Gen IV FCCG-E model allows $200/kg for seawater extraction at 1t per billion tonnes water.

• Conclusion: All guesswork with too little data. Must have exploration.


34

FAST BREEDER REACTORS

• High power density ~100MW/m3 . Fast neutrons• Breeds 15% more Pu then U-235 burned.


35

MOLTEN SALT THORIUM BREEDER

232Th + n 233Pa + - + 233U + -


36

A US NUCLEAR PLAN


37

NUCLEAR FUEL STOCKPILES• The UK will have 106,000 tonnes of Depleted

Uranium in stock by 2020

• This is enough to meet all current UK electricity & transport need for 600 years.

• Over the next 50 years the Nuclear Powered countries may capture all the mineable Uranium on the planet.

• This is enough to run 10,000 reactors for 1000 years.


38

• Propose geological storage for all spent fuel, depleted Uranium, and ILW.

• WRONG• Should build Nuclear Fuel Vaults good for

1000 years.• Should build Advanced Fuel Cycle &

TRISO reprocessing plants.• Should reserve all 300 year ‘waste’ of

valuable metals.• Should put the small amounts of ash and

long lived waste in deep disposal.

UK Committee on Radioactive Waste Management


39

SAFETY TECHNOLOGYCOMPUTERISED OPERATIONS

WIRELESS INSTRUMENTATION, RADIATION MONITORING

GPS & ID TAGS ON ALL NUCLEAR MATERIALS

DISTRIBUTED COMPUTING, REAL TIME SYSTEMS, HAND HELD MAINTENANCE MONITORS

FLY-BY-WIRE PLANT CONTROL

IAEA REMOTE CONTROL & MONITORINGSATELLITE NETWORKING, COMPLETE SURVEILLANCE

STRONG ENCRYPTION

- PERSONNEL –

THE MOST DANGEROUS COMPONENTSBIOMETRICS, CCTV, LOCATION TRACKING

LAYERED ACCESS CONTROL, ACTIVE SECURITY


40

JET – FUSION BREAKEVENWorld’s most successful Fusion machine

Programme lost 10 years to politics.

JET Completed thanks to the Bader-Meinhof gang

Proved Fusion Physics with global inputs

.


41

ITER – A 40 YEAR EXPERIMENTITER: International Tokamak delays: 15 yrs to design+ 10 to build +10 to run = 35 yrs.

Can this be ACCELERATED?

No Meltdowns

No bomb materials

No long lived waste


42

CONTRIVED ‘MARKETS’, EMISSIONS TRADING

& CARBON TAXES•EuroTS: Misguided social engineering•UK company paid China £400M to capture refrigerant waste. Carbon Abatement Certs. Sold at £500M to run UK Coal stations.•ETS == Cash Capture & Storage•Carbon Taxes are just government revenue. Not Energy Neutral.•Market Forces are about maximum profit, not minimum pollution.


43

Energy Research funding in the US & EU fell by 90% in the 1980s.

UK Stern Economic Review of Climate Change (2006) suggests

Energy R&D should now be doubled

Society needs Energy.

Utilities are businesses.

Society must pay for Energy R&D&D

ENERGY R&D&D


44

3 ENERGY TREATIES

1. OIL DEPLETION PROTOCOL –ASPO

2. FOSSIL CARBON & CCS TREATY – Kyoto II

3. NUCLEAR ENERGY AND WEAPONS PROLIFERATION TREATY – ‘NEWPT, RUN BY IAEA


45

UNILATERAL ACTIONPOLICY DEMONSTRATIONS

•CALIFORNIA: First on Vehicle Emissions

•CALIFORNIA: No long term contracts with polluting electricity vendors - 2006

•CONGESTION CHARGING - London

•CARPOOLS – Big Employers, Schools

•TOLL ROADS – Free to low emission vehicles.

•100X MOTORWAY BUSES (Monbiot: ‘Heat’)


46

LOCAL INITIATIVESLIFESTYLE CHANGES

•COVER CARPARKS for Sunday Markets of local and State products.

•HOME DELIVERY Same day service at all shopping centres with improved bus services

•FREE PARKING for diesel & Low emissions vehicles & local Carpools. Adjust fees to maintain revenues.

DEVELOPMENT•NO NEW COMMUTER DEVELOPMENTS – must be self sufficient.

•50% HOUSING TAX REDUCTIONS for Passivhaus homes.

•SELECT LOCAL WINDMILL FARM SITES

•SELECT LOCAL NUCLEAR PARK SITES


47

CARBON FREE ELECTRICITY

WINNING TECHNOLOGIES

BASE LOAD• COAL with CCS 100-200 years• NUCLEAR 1000-3000 years• FUSION Indefinite

INTERMITTENT• WIND Indefinite• SOLAR Indefinite

TRANSPORT

• ELECTRIC, BIOFUELS,H2 Indefinite


48

WE CAN WIN THIS ONE•But we are on our own 5 yard line•On fourth down•Our best players are on the bench•And Cheerleaders for Conservation are only a pretty distraction.

•The defense has fielded their heaviest political & corporate players

•So we must pull out all the stops•Cover all the bases•And go for the long bomb.

•Go Team!


49

GET IT RIGHT FOR THEM!

Rich English girl, Zoe(2)

On the back of a $3/day porter

mountaineering in Nepal.

THANK YOU


50

REFERENCES1. ASPO. Association for the Study of Peak Oil. www.peakoil.net2. BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 20063. C. J. Campbell. ‘Oil Crisis’. Multi-Science Publishing, 2005. The definitive work on Peak Oil.4. CORWM: Committee on Radioactive Waste Management. ‘Managing Our Radioactive Waste Safely’, August 2006. www.corwm.or.uk5. Deutch, D., Moniz, A. “The Nuclear Option”, Scientific American 2006. Special Issue on ‘Energy’s Future: Beyond Carbon’6. DTI Energy Challenge. www.dti.gov.uk7. C. W. Forsberg, “Assessment of Nuclear-Hydrogen Synergies with Renewable Energy Systems and Coal Liquefaction Processes“,

ORNL/TM-2006/114, Oak Ridge Natl. Laboratory. 8. E. Lahoda, C.W. Forsberg, D. McGloghlin. “A Low-Greenhouse-Impact Hydrogen-based Fuels Future” AICE, San Francisco,Nov. 2006.9. Hawkins, D., Natural Resources Defense Council, New York. www.nrdc.org. G8-IEA-CSLF Workshop, August 2006, San Francisco10. IAEA General Conf., 2006. “New Framework for the Utilization of Nuclear Energy in the 21st Century:11.Assurances of Supply and Non-Proliferation”12.John Houghton. ‘Global Warming’. Cambridge Press, 2004. Definitive briefing on the science of global warming.13.House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee (EAC) ‘Keeping the Lights On: Nuclear, Renewables, and Climate Change’ April 2006. 14. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). ‘Special report on Carbon Capture and Storage’, 2006.15.Christian N. Jardine,1 Gavin J. Conibeer2 and Kevin Lane. Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, 5, South Parks Road,

Oxford, OX1 3UB.16. ‘PV-COMPARE: Direct Comparison of Eleven PV Technologies at Two Locations in Northern and Southern Europe’17.Brendan McNamara. ‘ Nuclear Power – Facing Opposition’, June, 2005. Exposes the exaggerations used by Storm van Leeuwen & Smith

on CO2 emissions from Nuclear Power. Google – “Brendan McNamara” nuclear.18.Brendan McNamara. ‘ Nuclear Power in the UK 21st. Century Energy Mix’, Submitted to the UK DTI Energy Review 2006. Shows how Deep

Burn has been missed by the Review process. Google – “Brendan McNamara” nuclear.19.Brendan McNamara. ‘ Uranium: What is to be done?, Submitted to the UK DTI Energy Review 2006. Shows how Uranium supplies can be

reprocessed to supply 10,000 1 GWe reactors for 1000 years. Google – “Brendan McNamara” nuclear.20.MIT: ‘The Future of Nuclear Power’, 200321.Nirex. ‘The Implications of Declaring UK Uranium Stockpiles as Waste’, 2002.22.Royal Academy of Engineering (RAE). ‘The Cost of Generating Electricity’, 2004.23.Hugh Sharman, 24.http://ior.rml.co.uk/issue4/co2/inco2/summary.htm)25.Hugh Sharman. ‘Why UK Wind Power should not exceed 10GW’, Proc. Inst. Civil Eng., pp 161-169, 2006.26.A.Tjernshaugen, Centre for International Climate & Environmental Research – Oslo. ’ Political commitment to CCS in Europe and North

America:Evidence from government RD&D budgets’, May 2006


51

SUPLEMENTARY


52

THORIUM REACTOR CYCLE• 232Th captures

thermal neutron. Transmutes to fissile 233U.

• Other transmutations happen by neutron capture, - decay, and decay.

• No high actinides – Cm, Am.

• Only non-weapons Pu isotope created.

• Radiotoxic 232U limits illicit diversion.


53

WEAPONS PROLIFERATION

• Proliferation is not really about Plutonium

• It is about politics, power, people, pride, property ….


54

ASSISTED PROLIFERATION

• Manhattan: Allies & Spies - Fuchs• McMahon Act Excluded Allies, 1946• H-bombs: USA ’52, USSR ’53, UK ‘57 ,

China ‘67, France ‘67 , India ’98, Pakistan?, Israel?

• Atoms for Peace, TRIGA reactors• Candu – Argentina, India, …• Israel – France, UK, US • Pakistan – France, China• Libya, Iran – Russia, Pakistan (Khan)• Iraq – France (Bombed by Israel)

CARBON FREE ELECTRICITY: CAN TECHNOLOGY BEAT GLOBAL WARMING?

Documents

Transcript of CARBON FREE ELECTRICITY: CAN TECHNOLOGY BEAT GLOBAL WARMING?