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HalHinkleMylesMcGinleyTravisHargettSkyeDasche

CarbonFarmingwithTimberBamboo:ASuperiorSequestrationSystemComparedtoWood

Whythetimeisnowfortheworldtotakeadvantageofnature’sfastestgrowingstructuralfiber

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ExecutiveSummary

Ourearthisontracktocrashthroughthe1.5°Cglobalwarmingbudgetsetfor2030andwilllikelyevenexceedthe2°Cworst-casebudget.Hugenegativechangeswillresultforhumanhealth,livelihoods,foodsecurity,watersupply,physicalsecurity,andglobaleconomicgrowth(IPCC2018).EverypathwaytheIPCChasproposedtofightclimatechangerequiresimmediateandsignificantcarbondioxideremoval(CDR)fromtheatmosphere,i.e.sequestration.Yetnearlynothingisbeingpursued,becausenearlynothingworksthatissensible,otherthanpossiblywood-basedforestsequestrationthroughafforestationandreforestation.Intheorythesecanwork,butonlywhentheharvestisturnedintolong-livedharvestedwoodproducts.Buteventhisistooslow,waytooslow.Webelievethattimberbamboo’sfastgrowthandshortannualharvestcyclecanspeedupforestsequestrationandturntimberbambooplantationsintoperpetualcarbonfarmsthatproduceanewstrongergradeofstructuralfiber.Andweneedboththecarbonremovalandthestructuralnow!Thevastmajorityofbamboo’scarboncaptureoccursinthefirst15years,decadesearlierthantrees.Timeisoftheessence;however,thetimingofmitigationeffortsisgenerallyignoredinpolicyandinpractice.

Toconfirmorrefuteourbeliefthattimberbambooisasuperiorsequestrationoptioncomparedtowood,webuiltadynamicmodelofbamboogrowth.Wethenconstructedamethodicaldecisionframeworktocomparetheannualcarbonflowsoftimberbambooandwood,includingrobustsensitivityanalysis,timevaluingthecarbonflowsandacomprehensivecomparisonmetriccalledtheCarbonBenefitMultiple(CBM).ThefinalCBMsshowedthattimberbamboowithregularharvestsofdurableproductssequestersbetween4.5and6timesthecarbonthatwooddoes.

Thetimeisnowfortheworldtotakeadvantageofnature’sfastestgrowingstructuralfiber.

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Table of Contents

1. AddressingClimateChangeThroughCarbonDioxideRemoval...............................................1

2. CarbonCapturethroughWoodandBambooAfforestation....................................................4

WoodAfforestation..........................................................................................................................4

BambooAfforestation/Reforestation..............................................................................................5

ClimateChangeMitigation(Sequestration)asanA/RDriver..........................................................6

3. ProjectingCarbonFlowsfromWoodandTimberBambooA/R...............................................7

Modelingforest/plantation-basedcarbonflows(CF1)....................................................................7

ModelingHarvestOccurrenceandHWPProduction(CF2)..............................................................8

ModelingHWPFinalDisposition,LandfillandMethane(CF3).......................................................10

CarbonFlowProjections(ExpectedCase)forEachSpecies-Location............................................12

4. RationalDecisionMakingBetweenWoodandTimberBambooAR–theCarbonBenefit

Multiple.................................................................................................................................13

AlternativeCases............................................................................................................................14

1.Expected,LowandHighCaseProjections.............................................................................14

2.TimeValuingCarbonFlows....................................................................................................15

3.WeightedScenarioAnalysis...................................................................................................16

4.TheBottomLine:TheCarbonBenefitMultiple.....................................................................16

Implications....................................................................................................................................18

5. ProductizingTimberBamboointoDurableCarbonStoringProducts....................................19

BamCore’sPrimeWallSystem.......................................................................................................19

BeyondWoodFraming-Concrete&Steel.......................................................................................20

FramingwithConcrete...................................................................................................................20

FramingwithSteel..........................................................................................................................21

6. AboutBamCore......................................................................................................................23

7. References.............................................................................................................................24

8. Appendix:InternationalForestationCommitments..............................................................26

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1. AddressingClimateChangeThroughCarbonDioxideRemovalMankindlargelyacceptstherealityofglobalclimatechange,butthestarkerrealityisthatcollectivelyweshowlittlelikelihoodofstayingwithinthe1.5oCoreventhe2oCcarbonbudgetsadoptedintheParisclimatetreatyin20151(IPCC,2018).Werecognizethatprivatesectortechnologicalinnovationismakingimportantmitigationcontributions(Bloomberg&Pope,2017).Still,thebroadgoalofcombining(1)thedevelopmentofmorerenewableenergysourceswith(2)improvedenergyefficiencywillnotbeenoughtopreventmankindfrompassingthepresumptivesafeharborbudgetofthe1.5oCincrease,orworse,theredlinebudgetof2oCglobaltemperatureincrease(New,etal.,2011),(Rogerlj,etal.,2016).ThiswastheconclusionreachedbytheUnitedNationIPCCintheirspecialstudyGlobalWarming1.5oC.“Allpathwaysthatlimitglobalwarmingto1.5oC…usecarbondioxideremoval(CDR).”Therefore,wemustalsoincludesignificantandnear-termcarbonsequestrationinthesolutionsetortheearth’sclimatesystemswillfacepowerfullyharmfulandirreversiblefeedbackcycles2.Asthesefeedbackcyclesactivateandclimatechangeaccelerates,manybelievethatlifeonearthcouldfacemoredrasticchangesthanwecanpreparefor.

Intheefforttounderstandandlimitclimatechange,littlefocusisgiventothetimingofmitigationoutcomes.EventhePariscarbonbudgetitselfisexpressedsimplyasatotalamountofCO₂(andothergreenhousegases)thatcanbereleasedintotheatmospherewithoutregardtodiscreteperiodictimingofthereleases.Butfightingclimatechangeisnotacontestthatwecanwinwithalate-in-the-gamereversal.Ifwedon’tgetaheadinthecontestearly,thelikelihoodofprevailingreducestonil.Better-suitedfirefightersshowinguponcethebuildingisinfullconflagrationcan’tsavethebuilding.Timeisoftheessencebecauseoftheirreversibleclimatefeedbackcycles.Yetintheabundantresearchandinthedevelopmentofplansandpoliciestomitigateclimatechange,ingeneralonlytheprojectedcumulativeamountofmitigationisconsidered,whilethetimingofthemitigationeventsishardlyeverformallyincorporated--conceptuallyoranalytically.Tomakesounddecisions,individuallyorcollectively,aboutactionsthatcanleadtosignificantcarbonsequestration,wemustdevelopbetterdecisiontoolsthatincorporatethediscretetimingofcarbonflows.AmongclimatechangeCDRopportunities,capturingatmosphericcarbonthroughafforestation/reforestation(“A/R”)3sequestrationprojectsisproven,safeandimmediatelyavailable.However,thesequestrationbenefitofA/Rislargelylimitedtotheinitialyearsofforestgrowth.Thisisbecause,onceaforestreachesmaturityitsnetcarbondioxideremovalslowsandmayapproachzeroasitscontinuedgrowthisoffsetbynaturalforestatrophy,whichcanresultinanearlybalancedcarbonfluxofthesystem.But,onceaforestismature,ifsomeofthecarbon-ladenfiberisharvestedfromtheforest’sstandingstockandstored(orsequestered)off-siteinharvestedwoodproducts(“HWP”)4,theforestcanresumenetcapturingofcarbonasitregrows.Harvestedwoodproductsrangefrompaperandpulpwithshortproducthalf-livestofurniturewithintermediatehalf-livesandtoconstructionmaterialsembeddedinbuildingswithverylonghalf-lives.5Onlywhenaforestisperiodicallyharvested,andtheharvestedproductputinuse,canaforest(orplantation)6stayinaperpetualcycleofregrowthtocontinuecapturingadditionalatmosphericcarbon.BystoringcarbonfromeachharvestintodurableHWP,aone-timeA/Rprojectcanbecomeaperpetualcarbonfarm.Byextension,thefasterormorefrequentlytheA/Rprojectisharvested,themorecarboncanbefarmedfromtheatmosphereandthemorecarboncanbestoredindurableHWP.ItispreciselythefastgrowthandshortharvestcycleoftimberbamboothatmakesittheidealcandidateforcarbonfarmingthroughA/Rprojects.However,asdiscussedbelow,globalclimatemitigationA/Rprogramsandpoliciesgenerallyignore

1OnOctober8,2018theUN’sIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC),aftertwoyearsofwork,releasedtheSpecialReport:ClimateChangeof1.5oC.Thebroadconclusionwithhighconfidencewasthat“Globalwarmingislikelytoreach1.5oC”asearly2030.2Positivefeedbackcyclesinglobalclimatechangeacceleratetherateofclimatechangewhentheyareactivated,e.g.risingtemperaturesthatmelttheGreenlandandpolaricecovers,whichreducessolarreflectance,whichthenfurtherincreasestemperaturegains,orthethawingofthesub-articpermafrostthatreleasesCO2,whichfurtherwarmstheatmosphere,whichreleasesmoreCO2fromthepermafrost.3Afforestationandreforestation,whilefactuallydifferent,havenearlyidenticalcarbonfootprintsbythetimeawoodorbamboosystemismature.Accordingly,weusethetermsinterchangeably,notingthemsimplyas“A/R”.Amongclimatepolicyprofessionals,afforestationappliestolandthathasnothadaforestonitin50years,whilereforestationappliestolandthathasbeenconvertedtonon-forestusespriortoyear-end1989.4HarvestedWoodProductsareexplicitlyincludedintheUN’sFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeasacontributiontothemitigationresultsachievedthroughA/Rprojects.HWPsincludelumber,panels,paperandpaperboardaswellaswoodusedforfuel.Forthepurposesofthisanalysis,wedonotmakeadistinctionbetweenwood-orbamboo-basedHWP.5WedonotdiscussbiocharasanHWP,eventhoughitspresumptivehalf-lifeismanyhundredsofyearsbecausetheglobalmarketdemandforbiocharisrelativelysmall,thuslimitingitsroleasasubstituteproduct.6Characteristicdistinctionsbetweenforestsandplantationsaresmallforourpurposes.Forestsmaybenaturallyorculturallyestablishedbutwillhaveahigherdegreeofbiodiversity.Plantationswillbenaturallyestablishedandmanagedwithmorefocusontheimmediatelyproductivevalue.Themannerofharvestlikelyhasthebiggestimpactonthebiodiversitywithclear-cuttingsignificantlydisruptingbiodiversityandinter-cuttingimpactingbiodiversityfarless.

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timberbambooinfavorofwood-basedA/R.Thisishardlysurprising.Treeforestsandwoodproductsareexhaustivelyresearchedandanalyzedbothgenerallyandregardingtheirclimatemitigationpotential.Incontrast,thelimitedclimatemitigationresearchthathasbeenpublishedontimberbambooA/Rismodestinamountandrigor.Moreover,tomakeeffectivedecisionsbetweenwoodandtimberbamboo-basedA/Rstrategiesrequiresknowingmorethanjustthecarboncontentofthestandingstockofamatureforestorwhatportionsoftheharvestedfiberarestored,landfilled,burnedorotherwisedisposedof.AneffectivedecisionrequiresprojectingthetimingofeachdiscreteannualcarbonflowduringbothforestgrowthandHWPservicelifeforboththewoodforestandtimberbambooforestorstand.Forwood,theseannualcarbonflowsarereadilyavailablethroughmultiplesources.TheUNIPCChasevenpublishedguidelinesforcalculatingandprojectingthesecarbonflowsinitsGuidelinesforNationalGreenhouseGasInventories(IPCC,2006).However,fortimberbamboo,therearenoguidelinesforprojectingperiodiccarbonflows.Further,todatetherehavebeennomulti-speciesprojectionsoftimberbambooannualcarbonflowstoenableanycomprehensivecomparisonwithwood.Toremedytheabsenceofannualtimberbamboocarbonflowprojections,wehaveseparatelybuiltAGeneralizedModelofTimberBambooCarbonFlowsthatisco-publishedwiththispaper(Hinkle,etal.,2018).ThemodelhasbeencarefullybuiltfromtheavailablepublishedresearchbyextractingreportedannualgrowthdataforthreedistincttimberbamboospeciesthatarealreadyusedfordurableHWP.Theoutputsofthemodelarenetannualcarbonflowprojectionsthatcanbecompareddirectlywiththoseofvariouswoodforestsoverafull100-yearhorizon.Oncelongitudinalcarbonflowscanbeprojectedforbothwoodandtimberbamboo,arationalcomparisonmustobjectivelyweightearliersequestrationresultsgreaterthanlaterresults.Howeverobviousthismightbeconsideringouracceleratinginterruptionoftheclimatefeedbackcycles,objectivelytimeweightingthebenefitsofmitigationresultsisbroadlynotdone.Accordingly,toremedytheabsenceoftimevaluingmitigationbenefits,wehaveapplieddiscountratestotheprojectedannualcarbonflowsofbothwoodandtimberbamboo.Becausethisapproachofapplyingtimediscountratesisnovelinclimatemitigationdecisionmaking,wehaveappliedarangeofdiscountratestoreflectthreepossiblelevelsofconcernaboutclimatechange(Moderate,SeriousandExtreme).ToassureabalancedandrationalcomparisonoftimberbambooandwoodA/R,wethenconstructedLow,ExpectedandHighCasetimberbambooprojectionsacrossthethreeconcernlevels.Finally,thesecasesaresubsequentlyweightedacrossfourseparatescenarios,basedonoutcomelikelihoods.Mankind’sgoalmustbetochooseandestablishmaximalpotencyA/Rprojectsasquicklyaspossible.Bysimplelogic,maximumsequestrationpotencyresultswhenthegrowthcycleisshortandwhenthehalf-lifeofthecarbonstoredintheresultingHWPislong.SincetimberbambooA/Rprojectspossessbothattributes,itistemptingtoconcludethattimberbambooisasuperiorA/Rsolutioncomparedtowood.However,wearenotawareofanygeneralizedormulti-speciescomparisonbetweenwoodandtimberbambooA/Rthathasbeendevelopedtotestthishypothesis.Bydevelopingageneralizedgrowthmodelfortimberbamboo,wearenowabletomakeadirectcomparisonandtotestthathypothesis.ThepurposeofthispublicationistoanalyzethepotentialroleoftimberbambooinclimatemitigationA/Rprojectsincomparisontowood-basedA/Rprojects.Wedothisfromtheperspectiveofcommercialorrationaldecisionmakingwherethebenefitbeingmaximizedisneartermcaptureandlong-termstorageofatmosphericcarbondioxide.7Wepresentourresearchintotheradicalbenefitofcarbonfarmingwithtimberbamboointwopublications.Thepresentpublication,whichaddressespolicyanddecision-makingissues,andtheco-publishedpaper,whichaddressesdetailconstructionandprojectionsoftheGeneralizedModelofTimberBambooCarbonFlows.Thefollowingoutlinestheremainingsectionsofthepresentpublication.Section2:CarbonCaptureThroughWoodandBambooAfforestation.

First,wereviewthestateofexistingmultinationalwood-ortree-basedA/Radoptionprogramsandreportthreeobservations:First,thereisasignificantshortfallbetweenthebroadgoalsoftheprogramsandthespecificcommitmentsoftheparticipants.Second,thereisonlyfalteringprogressagainstthelimitedspecificcommitmentsthathavebeengiven.Andthird,thereisageneralindifferencetotimingconsiderationswhenimplementingtheschemes.Againstthisbackdrop,wearguethattimberbambooisastronglysuperiorA/Rsolution.Asnature’sfastestgrowingstructuralfiber,

7Theanalysisisnotconductedusingtheapproachofanyparticularcarbonsequestrationcertificationorcomplianceprogram(e.g.CertifiedDevelopmentMechanisms(CDMs)orVerifiedCarbonStorage(VCS)).

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timberbambooA/Rprograms,whencomparedtowood-basedA/Roptions,isfarmorepotentatgeneratingneartermcarbondioxideremoval.

Section3:ProjectingCarbonFlowsfromWoodandTimberBambooAfforestation/Reforestation.

Next,weintroduceamodelingframeworkthatallowsustoprojectandthencompareannualcarbonflowsfrombothwoodandtimberbambooA/Rprojects.

a. Forwood,weadoptthecomprehensivecarbonflowprojectionmodeldevelopedbytheUSForestService(“USFSmodel”;Smith,etal,2005),whichprojects100-year+carbonflowsfor5woodspeciesandplantinglocations.

b. Fortimberbamboo,nomodelisavailablethatprojectsanylongitudinalcarbonflows,yetlessforcomparable100-yearcarbonflows.Accordingly,wedevelopedAGeneralizedModelofTimberBambooCarbonFlowsthatprojects100-yearcarbonflowsacrossarangeoftimberbamboospecies(“BCmodel”;Hinkle,etal,2018).Themodelanditsdevelopmentarediscussedintheco-publishedpaperofthesamename.

Withthesetwoprojectionmodelscomplete,weillustrateandthenwecomparetheannualcarbonflowsfromwoodandtimberbambooA/Rprojects,includingallHWPcarbonflows(production,storage,anddisposition),butwithoutregardtotimevaluingthecarbonflows.BecausetheBCmodelisnecessarilymorespeculativethantheUSFSmodel,weconstructfourscenariosfortheBCmodeloutputstoallaytheriskofadominatingassumptiondrivingtheresultsfortimberbambooA/R.

Section4:RationalDecisionMakingbetweenWoodandTimberBambooA/R–TheCarbonBenefitMultiple.

Then,basedontheabovecarbonflowprojectionmodels,weestablisharationaldecisionframeworkthatevaluatestherelativecarbonsequestrationpotencyoftimberbambooversuswoodA/R.Theframeworkincludeselementscommonlyfoundincommercialorfinancialdecision-makingincludingtestingthesensitivitytospecificassumptions,timevaluingthebenefitflows,andweighingtheoutlookacrosspossiblescenarios.Toreachacomprehensivebutsingularbottomlineconclusion,wecreateasinglemetricoftherelativepotency,theCarbonBenefitMultiple.Totesttherobustnessofthedecisionbetweentimberbambooandwood,westresstesttheCarbonBenefitMultipleforthreecasesofprojectedbamboopotency,forthreelevelsofconcernaboutclimatechange(i.e.discountratesreflectingtimingurgency),acrossfourscenariosofcertaintyabouttheindividualmodelinputs.

Section5:ProductizingTimberBamboointoDurableCarbonStoringProducts.

Finally,basedontimberbambooA/R’shighlypositiveCarbonBenefitMultiplecomparedtowoodA/R,wediscusstheroleandimportanceoftheearlyandregularextractionofHWPtostorecapturedcarbonindurableproducts.Weexplainhowtheproductizationoftimberbamboointodurablebuildingproductswillhelpsupplymankind’sgrowingneedforanon-tree-basedfiberwhilealsodrivingperpetualcarbonfarmingthroughdemandformoretimberbambooA/Rinvestments.Wedemonstratehowsuperiorbamboo-basedbuildingproductscaneconomicallydrivetheestablishmentofagenerationoftimberbamboocarbonfarmsthat,inturn,candeliverbamboo’scarbonsequestrationbenefitswithoutgovernmentsubsidyormandates.

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2.1GlobalForestCoverandBonnChallengeGoals

2. CarbonCapturethroughWoodandBambooAfforestation

WoodAfforestation.Inourpriorpublication,“BamCoreandGlobalWarming”,June2017,weconcludedthatamongtherangeofoptionsforcarbonsequestrationonlyafforestation8,anditsnear-equivalentreforestation,is“ready,capableofscaling,lowcost[with]fewcollateralnegatives”(Hinkle,etal.,2017).ThemultiplepotentialbenefitsofA/Rwererecognizedin2011whentheoriginal2020BonnChallengewasadoptedinBonn,Germanyin2011(Bonn,2018)9.TheChallengeisastructuredmulti-nationalcommitmentthatsettargetsforreforestationby2020.In2014,theNewYorkDeclarationonForestsaddedasecondtrancheoftargetsfor2030.Theadoptedgoalsare:

• 150millionhectaresofreforestation/restorationby2020and• 350millionhectaresofreforestation/restorationby2030.

Globally,totalforestcoverisapproximate4billionhectares(FAO,2010).Thus,successinthesegoalswouldadd4%and9%,respectively,tototalforestcover.(SeeFigure2.1.)

Todate,however,only40countriesandsevenotherpartieshavemadecommitmentsundertheBonnChallenge.(SeeAppendixOne.)Thepresentcommitmentstotalonly94millionhectaresby2020(63%ofthe2020goal)and168millionhectaresby2030(46%ofthe2030goal).(SeeFigure2.2)ThetotalBonnChallengegoalsandeventhepartialcommitmentsagainstthosegoalsmightseemlikeencouragingobjectives.Thatisuntiltheyareputinthecontextofcontinuingannualdeforestation.In2016,theearthexperiencedrecordnetdeforestationofnearly30millionhectares.Saiddifferently,ifthetotal168millionnominalcommitmentisachievedby2030,butdeforestationratescontinuenearthatof2016,attheendof2030,theearthwillstillhaveanetreductionof221millionhectaresofforestorabout10%oftheearth’sremainingforests.

UndertheBonnChallenge,eachparticipantisfreetodetailitsreforestationandrestorationasfitsitslocalclimate,growingconditionsandeconomicexigencies.Unfortunately,manyparticipantshavebarelybeguntheirimplementationandmanyparticipantsstilllackthefundingtopursuetheiradoptedgoals.Interestingly,despitetherealitythatdifferenttreespecieswithdifferentgrowthratescanserveasthebasepopulationforreforestation,noparticipantreportsplansthatincorporatethespeedofreforestation.Itispossiblethatthedesiretopreserveorrestoreperceivedhistoricalbiodiversityisinhibitingtreespeciesselectionotherthanasisfoundinthelegacypopulation.Moreover,fastgrowingtimberbambooisnotexplicitlyincludedintheBonnChallenge.Regionally,Initiative20x20,adoptedinLima,Peruin2014,sets2020reforestationandconservationgoalsfor17LatinAmericanandCaribbeancountriesandthreeregionalauthorities.(SeeAppendixOne.)Unlikeotherregions,nearlyhalfofgreenhousegasemissionsinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanderivefromdeforestation,land-usechangeandagriculture.Thus,thepartiesinthisregionsoughtareforestation/conservationapproachthatmoreaptlyfitsthembutstillcountstowardstheirtargetsintheBonnChallengetotals.Presentlyabout50millionhectaresaretargeted(WRI,2018).(SeeFigure2.2.)Littleinformationisavailableonthespecificsofeachparticipant’splan,butnoparticipanthighlightsthespeedofforestgrowthorofcarboncapture.Moreover,eventhoughmanyoftheLatinAmericancountriesarenativehabitatsformultiplespeciesoffast-growingtimberbamboo,timberbambooisalsonotexplicitlyincludedintheInitiative20x20. 8Afforestation,strictlyspeaking,isthenetadditionofforestcovercomparedtothatwhichexiststoday.Inits2020BonnChallengeandInitiative2020forms,itisoperationalizedasanincreaseinforestcoverlargelythroughreforestationandrestorationofdeforestedanddegradeecosystems.9TheBonnChallengederivesfromtheEarthSummitin1992andwasadvancedbytheGermangovernmentandtheInternationalUnionforConservationofNature.TheIUCNiscomprisedof216statesandgovernmentagenciesandover1100Non-GovernmentOrganizations.

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2.2ReforestaoonCommitments

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CommittedGoals

BambooAfforestation/Reforestation.TheonlydirectinclusionoftimberbamboointoA/RmitigationplanshasbeenthroughmembersofINBAR,theInternationalNetworkforBambooandRattan.INBAR,whichcounts44-membernationsincludingCanada,butnottheUnitedStates,ispartNGOandpartdiplomaticanddevelopmentcampaignsponsoredbythePeople’sRepublicofChina.Ofthe44members,18haveexpressedplansforbamboo-basedreforestationtotaling3.7millionhectaresby2020,whichrepresentsanincreaseofabout10%ofthepresentstandingstalkofbambooforests.(SeeAppendixOne.)Ofthese3.7millionhectaresnearly2.2millionareinAfrica.AsurveyofINBARmembersrevealedthatmorethanhalfoftheINBARrespondentswereimpededintheireffortstopursuetimberbamboorestorationdueto(1)insufficientfinancialresources(94%),lackofknowledgeofbambooprocessingtechnologies(83%),andlackoftechnicalknowledgeofbamboospecies,nurseryestablishmentandplantationandmanagement(72%)(INBAR,2018).Obviously,totheextentthatthereismarketratecommercialdemandfortheharvested“wood”productsfromatimberbambooplantationthemostsignificantoftheseimpedimentslessenordisappear.In“BamCoreandGlobalWarming,”wecomparedtimberbambooafforestationwithtreeafforestation.Wenotedthattreeafforestationwasimmediatelyavailableandpossibleacrossawiderangeofhabitats,butthatitstotalcarboncapturewassmallerperland-areausedandwasslowerthantimberbamboosequestration.OuranalysisshowedthatwhenregularlyharvestingstandsofaLatinAmericantimberbamboospecies,Guaduaangustifolia,(byintercutting,notclearcutting)foruseindurablebuildingproductsthattimberbambooA/RsubstantiallyoutpacedthesequestrationachievedbythreeNorthAmericantreespeciesalsousedfordurablebuildingproducts.(SeeFigure2.3.)

Researchbyothershasreachedasimilarconclusion,includingthatAsiantimberbamboo(Moso),comparedtoseveralfast-growingAsianwoodspecies,isatleast2.5xmorepotentasasequestrationenginethanwood(Nath,etal.,2015)(INBAR,2010).Iftimeisoftheessenceinfightingclimatechangeandiftimberbambooisamorepotentsequestrationmediumthattrees,thenwhyhasn’ttherebeenabroaderadoptionofbambooA/R?Besidessomeoftheanswersreportedabove,wealsothinkthatthereisabroadlackofawarenessabouttheopportunityformankindtoharnessnature’sstrongestandfastestgrowingbotanicalfiber.Inpartthelackofawarenesscouldresultfromthefactthattodaybamboooccupiesonly33.1millionhectaresofglobalforestcoverorless

than1%(FAO2010)10.Moreover,bamboohabitatsarepredominantlyinthedevelopingworld,inthetropicsandsubtropics,whilemuchoftheclimatechangeresearchandpolicydirectivesderivefromthetemperateclimate,developednations.Asa

10TheareareportedinGlobalForestResourcesAssessment2010isonly31.1millionha,towhichwehaveadded2millionhasforIndonesiawhichwaseliminatedfromthe2010reportbutpresentinpriorreports.

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result,bamboosimplyhaslessresearch,fewerpublicationsanddiminishedresourcesfocusedonitsopportunisticexploitationcomparedtowood. ClimateChangeMitigation(Sequestration)asanA/RDriver.ThetwointernationalA/RinitiativesdiscussedabovederivetheirimpetusfromtheRiodeJaneiroEarthSummitof1992andaremoredirectedatsustainabledevelopment,biodiversityandecosystemrestoration,thantheyareatclimatechangeorcarbonsequestration.(UN,1992)IftheBonnChallengeandInitiative20x20areeffectiveasoriginallyconceived,atmosphericcarboncapturewillmostlybeacollateralbenefit.TheInternationalUnionforConservationofNature,asponsoroftheBonnChallenge,estimatedthatachievingthe2020goalwouldsequester270milliontonnesofatmosphericcarboncaptureperyear.Thiscontrastswiththe28to280billiontonsthattheIPCCrecentlyprojectedwillbeneededfromallsequestrationoptionslikeA/Rpriorto2100.(IPCC,2018)Thatis,evenifalltheBonnChallenge2020commitmentswerekeptaswoodA/Rprojectstheywouldonlybe1%oftheabsoluteminimumthatIPCCindicatesisneededfromsequestration.Specifically,relativetocombinedsequestrationresultsfromagricultural,forestryandland-use(“AFOLU”)projectsneedingtocaptureCO₂equivalents,theIPCCsuggestedthatweneed(IPCCC2018):

• Upto5billiontonnesperyearbyyear2030,• From1to11billiontonnesperyearbyyear2050,and• From1to5billiontonnesperyearby2100.

Incontextthatmeansthatthefailed2020commitmentsdon’tcoverevenoneyearofwhattheIPCCsuggestedisneededfromforestryandotherAFOLUsequestrationprojects. Inthe26yearssincetheEarthSummit,theneedtomitigateacceleratingclimatechangehasbecomeparamount.OurviewisthatimplementingA/Rschemesmustnowintentionallyanticipateandincorporatetheneedforneartermcarboncapture.Tothisendconsiderationoftimberbamboo,whichhassignificantsequestrationtimingadvantages,needstobeembraced,studiedandincluded.Regrettablythegreatergoodoftheearth,maynotsensiblyaccommodatebothareturntoprecisehistoricalbiodiversityandtheimminentneedforcarboncaptureandstorageinA/Rprojects. InthenextsectionwecomputeestimatesoftheabsolutevaluesofcarbonflowsfromtimberbambooandwoodA/R.Todothis,weemployarigorousmodeldevelopedbyateamofresearchersattheUSDepartmentofAgricultureForestService.Thecomparisonwillshowthesubstantiallygreatersequestrationpotentialoftimberbambooinabsolute,nottimediscounted,terms.Inthefinalsectionweevaluatetheabsolutecarbonflowsbytimeweightingthemtohighlightthecriticalityofearlyactioninfightingclimatechange.Oncetime-weighted,wecompleteasetofScenarioAnalysestotesttherobustnessofthetime-weightedconclusion.

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3. ProjectingCarbonFlowsfromWoodandTimberBambooA/RTheurgencytochoosethemostpotentandeffectiveA/RalternativetoachieveneartermCDRisclear.Butthetoolstocomparealternativeshavenotbeenavailable.CommercialwoodforestryiswellstudiedandhasadeeppublishedliteraturethathasproducedrobustmodelswithprojectionsoflongitudinalcarbonflowsfromwoodA/Rprojects,suchastheUSFSmodel.TheclimatepolicyandclimatesciencecommunitiesassumethatwoodA/RisareadyandcapableengineofCDR,buttheyhavenotaskedifitisourmostpotentA/Ralternative.TimberbambooA/RhasbeenoverlookedbymainstreamclimatescienceandthereexistsnoknowntimberbambooA/RmodelthatcanprojectlongitudinalcarbonflowsacrossmultiplespeciestocomparetowoodA/R.ToconstructthecomparisonoftimberbambooandwoodA/Ralternatives,webeginwiththeUSFSForestService’scarbonflowmodelforwoodA/RandthenbuildacarbonflowmodelfortimberbambooA/RthatcanbedirectlycomparedtothewoodresultsfromtheUSFSmodel.ThisnewlybuiltA/Rmodelfortimberbambooisco-publishedasAGeneralizedModelofTimberBambooCarbonFlows(Hinkle,etal.,2018).TheUSFSmodel“MethodsforCalculatingForestEcosystemandHarvestedCarbonwithStandardEstimatesforForestTypesoftheUnitedStates”isbuiltfromtenforestry-derivedcarbonpoolsconstructedundertheIPCCguidelinespublishedin2003(Smith,etal.,2005).TheUSFSmodelisintendedtoprovideopenaccessforanalysisof“otherharvestquantities,standagesandforesttypes,”whichallowsustodirectlycompareUSFSmodeledwood-basedcarbonflowswithBCmodeledtimberbamboo-basedcarbonflowsacrossmultiplespeciesandgrowinglocations.ThecalculationframeworkofboththeUSFSandtheBCmodelsincorporatesallthreesetsofcarbonflowsthatareattributedtoanA/Rproject.(SeeFigure3.1.)Becausebambooisagrass,timberbamboogrowsverydifferentlythanwood,generatingverydifferentforest-basedcarbonflows(CF1).Thisgrowthanddevelopment-baseddifferencethendrivesearlierbutregularpartialharvestsandstorageintoHWP(CF2).WhenassumedHWPistakenoutofservice,thedispositionofcarbonflowsisthesame,exceptfortheearliertimingofbambooHWP(CF3).Inpresentingtheresultsinthissection,weuseinputstothemodelsthatweexpecttobethemostlikely.ThepresentedresultsarethereforetheExpectedorBaseCaseresults.InSection4,wewillalsopresentLowandHighCasestoreflectanunderstandingofthesensitivitytovariousinputsandthenconstructedScenarioAnalysistoreflectweightingsofthevariouscases.ModelingForest/Plantation-basedCarbonFlows(CF1). Fortimberbamboo,asdescribedintheBCmodel,weusedavailableannualgrowthdataforthreespecies(Guaduaangustifolia,DendrocalamusasperandBambusabambos)andbuiltageneralizedmodeloftimberbambooA/Rcarbonflows.Themodelwasthencross-fittedtoanadditionalfivelocationsforthethreespeciesforatotalofeightspecies-locationsprojections.Byfittingthemodelofonespeciestomultiplelocationswearebroodinglythereliabilityandapplicabilityofthegeneralizedcarbonflowprojections.Forwood,wechosethreespeciesfromtheUSFSmodel:Douglasfir,thelargestgrowingcommercialtimberspeciesinNorthAmerica,Loblolley,thefastestgrowingandmostwidelyplantedcommercialspeciesinNorthAmericaandPonderosaPine,acommonlyplantedandwidelyusedspecies.Usingthesethreespecies,weextractedwood-basedcarbonflowsfromtheUSFSmodelforatotalofsevenspecies-locations.

8

Figure3.2belowshowstheaccumulatedcarbonduringthegrowthperiodsforthethreetimberbamboospeciesaveragedacrosstheeightlocationsandthethreecommercialwoodspeciesaveragedacrossthesevenlocations.Noticehowmuchfasterthetimberbambooplantationcanaccumulatesequesteredcarbonperhectare.Bytheninthyear,allthreespeciesofbamboohaveaccumulatedmorethan100tonnesofC/ha.Incontrast,Loblolley,thefastestgrowingcommercialspeciesdoesn’taccumulate100tonnes/hectareuntilyear18,whichistwiceaslongastheslowestofthethreetimberbamboospecies.The

largestgrowingwoodspeciesdoesn’taccumulatethe100tonnes/hauntilyear27,whichisthreetimeslongerthantheslowestofthethreetimberbamboospecies.Andthethirdcommercialwoodspecies,PonderosaPine,hasn’treachedthe100tonnes/hamarkbyyear75whentheplantationispresumedtobeharvested.Immediately,theseforestorplantationlevelcomparisonspointtotimberbambooasembodyingapotenttimingbenefitcomparedtowoodinA/Rprojects.Tomodelthecarbonflowscomingfromgrowthandaccumulationinthecommercialplantation,weusetheUSFSmodelasconfiguredforeachspecies-location,butwithoutharvesteventsorHWPproduction.Tomodelthecarbonflowscomingfromthebambooplantations,butwithoutharvesteventsorHWPproduction,theBCmodelincorporatesatotalof42variables.Ourintentistomanagealltheknowngrowthandaccumulationdynamicsthathavebeenobservedinbothnaturalandcommercialbambooplantingswhilefocusingoncommercialplantings.Amongthe42growthandaccumulationinputsseparatelymodeledare:

• Annualgrowthandaccumulationofbiomass(andthuscarbon)aboveandbelowgroundseparately,• Distributionofgrowthandaccumulationofbiomassbyplantorgan,• Groundlitterdevelopmentlagandprevalence,• Ageoffirstharvestablebiomassfromplantingandageofculmwhenfirstharvested• Gregariousormastfloweringbypercentage,includingpre-emptiveharvestabilityandlagtoreplant• Postmaturitygrowthandaccumulationratesandcapsfrommaximumaccumulationduring“equilibrium”

ModelingHarvestOccurrenceandHWPProduction(CF2).Harvestcyclesforwoodareasprojectedinthesevenselectedharvestlocationsandrangefrom25to75years.IntheUSFSmodeleachofthesevenlocationshasadifferentallocationofthespecificHWPproducedbasedonhistoricaldataavailabletotheUSFS.However,toachievecomparabilitywithbamboo,weconstrainbothwoodandtimberbambootoonlytwoHWPoptions--paperandorientedstrandboardOSB.These

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3.2Avg.CumulaoveCarbonGrowthinBambooandWoodSpeciesPre-Harvest

Loblolley DouglasFir PonderosaPine B.Bambos Guadua D.Asper

2030:BonnChallenge–350milha

2050:IPCCTarget–1.5°C

Wood Bamboo

9

5,933

1,7951,6701,161

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3.3HarvestEfficiency:Bamboovs.Wood

TotalCarbonCaptured

CarbonEmisedDuringHarvestandProducoon

twoHWPhavemaximallydifferentservicehalf-lives.ThisallowsustovarytherelativeportionofpaperandOSBtotestimpactofHWPhalf-lifeoncarbonflowsandtoisolatetheprojectedCDRfromlocationspecificHWPhistoriesforwood.Harvestcyclesforbambooacrosstheeightlocationsarealwaysannual,startingbetweensixandnineyearsafterinitialplantingandgrowingtoasteadystateuponthestandreachingfinalmaturity,allofwhichisspeciesdependent.Asexplainedabove,bothtimberbambooandwoodstands(forestsorplantations)exhibitdecliningannualnetbiomassaccumulationoncetheyentertheirmaturephase.OnlyiffiberisharvestedandstoredindurableHarvestedWoodProducts,canaforestorcommercialplantationcontinuetocapturesignificantamountsofcarbonintheregeneratedbiomass.TherearethreesignificantdifferencesbetweentimberbambooandwoodrelativetotheharvestoccurrenceandanyresultingHWPproduction.

(1) Commercialsoftwoodsareharvestedinmuchlongercyclesrangingfromseldomlessthan25yearstooftenmorethan75years.Incontrast,onceabamboostandreachesinitialmaturitybetweensevenand10years,matureculmsthataretwoyearsoroldercanbeharvestedfrompaperandpulp,whileculmsthreeyearsoroldercanbeharvestedformoredurableHWPproduction,suchasbuildingmaterials.

(2) Commercialsoftwoodsaremostfrequentlyharvestedbyclear-cuttingorverysignificantpartialcutting.Admittedclearcuttingaccountsfor40%ofallUSforestryharvestsand90%ofallCanadianforestryharvests.InNorthAmerica,approximately2.6millionhectaresareclearcutannually.(Masek,etal.,2011)Partialandselectivecuttingmaystillbefollowedbyaclear-cutting.Incontrast,timberbambooisneverclear-cut.Onceabamboostandismature,itisusuallyintercutannuallyorbienniallywhenstructurallymatureculmsareharvestedindividuallyfromclumpsofculms.Thisallowstherhizometocontinuepushingupnewshootstoreplacetheharvestedculm.Fortrees,successfulcompetitionforsunlightisamaindeterminantofgrowthsinceclearcuttingallowsalltreesinagivenareatobereplantedwithoutanycompetingcanopy.Incontrast,bamboo,likeallgrasses,regeneratesanewplantfromthesameundergroundrhizomethathasalreadyaccumulatedtherequirednutrientstopushthenextshootuptoafullheightculm.

(3) TheefficiencythatharvestedsoftwoodsareturnedintoHWPislowcomparedtotimberbamboo.Thisisanimportantdifferencebetweenwoodandtimberbamboothatisdifficulttooverstate.Thelowertheconversionefficiencythehigherthecarbonemissionsattimeofharvest.

Forwood,theUSFSmodeldirectlyincorporatesthesethreeelementsforeachofthespeciesandforesttypescovered.FortimberbambootheBCmodelincorporatestheseelements.TheUSFSmodelincludestwostagesofconversionefficiency.Thefirststageoccursinthefieldatthetimeofharvest.Thatis,whatportionofthefelledtreeisconvertedtoroundwoodthatistakentothemillversuswhatportionsareleftonthegroundtodecayorotherwiseemitcarbon.ThesecondstageisthewastethatisproducedduringtheproductionoftheHWP.ByrestrictingourHWPoptionstoparallelrelativeamountsofpaperandOSB,weavoidconfoundingfactorsfromspecificHWPproductionallowingustofocusonthecorewoodversustimberbamboocomparison.

ThegeneralperceptionisthatwoodefficientlycapturesandstoresCO₂whenharvestedandconvertedtoHWP.WhilewoodA/Riscriticalasanearth-wideCDRmechanism,itsharvestandHWPconversionefficiencyarefarfromthegeneralperception.Itisalsofarfromtheprojectionsoftimberbamboo.Figure3.3showsthegrossandnetcaptureandemissionforharvestingwoodandtimberbambooplantationsinourBaseCase.

WoodBamboo

Efficiency=72%

Efficiency=33%

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3.4SummaryCarbonDisposioonofOSBandPaperProducts

CarboninProductsinLandfill

CarboninProductsinUse

CarbonEmissionsasCO₂Equivalents(CO₂andCH₄)

TomodelthecarbonflowscomingfromwoodharvestandHWPproduction,weusetheUSFSmodelasconfiguredforeachofthesevenspecies-locationsbutconstrainHWPtopaperandOSBasdiscussedabove.TomodelthecarbonflowscomingfromtimberbambooharvestandHWPproductionandemissionwaste,theBCmodelspecifies:

• Thevintageoftheculmsbeingharvestedannually,• Theportionsoftheculmandabovegroundbiomassthatwillbeproductizedversusemittedaswaste,• Atransitburdentotransporttimberbamboorawmaterialfromharvestlocationsinthetropics,and• Theproportionofmastfloweringasappropriatebyspecies,andwhenoccurringtheportionofculms

harvestablefollowedbyaconfigurableplantinglag.ModelingHWPFinalDisposition,LandfillandMethane(CF3).BecauseweconstrainHWPtoonlypaperandOSBinthesameproportionsforbothtimberbambooandwood,themodelingofHWPcarbonflowsisidenticalforwoodandtimberbamboo.TheBCmodelandtheUSFSmodelbothusetheUSFShalf-lifefunctionsforHWPservicelifeandtheendoflifeallocationsbetweenemissionsandlandfilldeposition.Fortheportioninlandfills,however,weupdatetheemissionprojectionsbasedonresearchthatbecameavailablefollowingthepublicationoftheUSFSmodel.TheUSFSmodel,aspublished,usedsimplisticassumptionsfor:(1)theportionofHWPthatwasdegradableinlandfills,(2)whenthedegradationinitiatesand(3)howlongthedegradationoccursbeforereachingthenon-degradableresidualstate.MorecurrentresearchallowedustomakeprojectionsthattreatedeachofthesethreeinputsindependentlyforpaperversusOSB.(Ximenes,etal.,2015)Inaddition,theUSFSmodelassumedalllandfillemissionswereCO₂,resultingfromcommonlyobservedaerobicdigestioninlandfills.However,methane,afarmorepowerfulgreenhousegasthanCO₂,isknowntobeemittedfromlandfillsasaresultofanaerobicfermentation.ThepresumedpotencyofmethaneisafunctionoftheframeworkanalyzedandisnotcurrentlyresolvedinIPCCInventoryGuidelinesorintheclimatescienceliterature.MethanepotencyismostfrequentlystatedintermsofCO₂equivalents.TheCO₂equivalentofmethanerangesfromonemoleculeofmethaneequalingonemoleculeofCO₂to72moleculesofCO₂.GiventhislargerangeandthefactthattimberbambooisproducingHWPthatendsupinlandfillfarsoonerthanwoodHWPdoes,wefeltitcriticaltotesttheimpactofpossiblemethaneemissionsresultingfromHWPlandfillaccumulations.TheresultofsensitivityanalysisonmethanetoCO₂equivalentswasrevealingbutgenerallydidnotdiminishtheconclusionbelowabouttheoverallperformanceoftimberbamboocomparedtowoodA/Rprojects.Figure3.4showsthedispositionofcarbonacrosstheentirecradle-to-graveoftimberbambooandwoodprojectsforourBaseCaseScenario.Carbonflowsthroughtheproductecosystemasanin-useproductbeforebeingdiscardedtoeitheralandfillorburnedandimmediatelyemittedasCO₂.

Oncecarboninadiscardedproductentersalandfill,itwillbegintheaerobicdegradationprocess,emittingcarbondioxidebasedonaspecifieddecayfunctionoritwillremainintactiftheHWPisnon-degradable.BecausethesameproportionsofpaperandOSBareusedforbothtimberbambooandwood,oncetheHWPisinlandfillthehalf-lifefunctionsareidenticalforresidualandemissionproportionsforbothtimberbambooandwood.Figure3.5Aand3.5Bdescribethedispositionofcarbonin,andemittedfrom,alandfillforbothOSBandPaperproduct,respectively.NoticeonlyasmallfractionofOSBdegrades.In

11

realityverylittle(3%)ofwoodproductsandonly(26%)ofpaperproductsdegradeinlandfills(Micales&Skog,1996).Forfurtherdiscussion,pleaserefertotheGeneralizedModel.

TomodelthecarbonflowsduringHWPservicelifeandlandfilldegradation,weusetheUSFSmodelasconfiguredforeachofthesevenspecies-locationsbutconstrainHWPtopaperandOSBasdiscussedabove.TomodelthecarbonflowscomingfromtimberbambooharvestandHWPproductionandemissionwaste,theBCmodelspecifies:

• TheportionsofpaperandOSBthatarediscardedtolandfillsversusemittedfollowingusebybeingburned,• TheportionsofpaperandOSBthataredegradableversusthefinalinertlandfillresiduals,• Theseparatehalf-lifeassumptionsforthedegradableportionsofpaperandOSB,• Theseparatelagperiodsbeforedegradationbegins,• TheportionsofthedegradableportionsthatwillbeemittedasCO₂versusmethane,and• TheCO₂equivalentlevelforthemethaneemittedportion.

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3.5BCarbonDisposioonofPaperProductsinLandfill

CarboninProductsinLandfill

CO₂LandfillEmissionsCH₄LandfillEmissions(1:1CO₂equivalent)

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3.5ACarbonDisposioonofOSBProductsinLandfill

CarboninProductsinLandfill

CO₂LandfillEmissionsCH₄LandfillEmissions(1:1carbonequivalent)

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3.6BAnnualWoodCarbonFlows

LoblollySE LoblollySC PonderosaPinePWE PonderosaPineRMSDouglasFirPWE DouglasFirPWW DouglasFirRMN

CarbonFlowProjections(ExpectedCase)forEachSpecies-Location.ThefinaloutputoftheUSFSandBCmodelsisannualnetcarbonflows.Recognizingthatnumerousinputsarerequiredforbothmodels,wepresentonlytheExpectedorBaseCaseprojectioninthissection,andsubsequentlypresentadditionalLowandHighCasesinSection4.Thenetcarbonflowscanbepresentedvisuallyinthreeways:thenetannualflows,theaccumulationoftheannualflowsorasapresentvaluesummary(seeCarbonBenefitMultiple,Section4).InFigures3.6A&Bwepresentthenetannualcarbonflowsseparatelyfortimberbambooandwood.TheeightindependentcurvesinFigure3.6Aand3.7AandthesevenindependentcurvesinFigure3.6Band3.7Bdepictthenetannualcarbonflowprojectionsforeachofthespecies-locationsfortimberbambooandwood,respectively.ForthetimberbambooannualcarbonflowprojectionsshowninFigure3.6A,theprotrudingpositiveprojectionsshowthecarboncaptureduringearlyperiodinitialgrowthouttoaboutyear16.Sincethesethreespeciesarenotknowntomastflower,therearenoobservablenegativeflowsintheprojections(thoughmastfloweringiscapturedintheLowCase,seebelow).11

ForthewoodannualcarbonflowprojectionsshowninFigure3.6B,therearenoearlypositiveprotrudingprojectionsbecauseoftheslowergrowthofthewood.Thelargenegative(downward)protrudingprojectionsforwooddepictthesignificantnetcarbonemissionsthatoccuratthetimeofharvestforwood.

11 Mast flowering or gregarious flowering, which has been observed in some bamboo species and not others, is the infrequent simultaneous flowering of a species across a large geographic area, following which the flowering members of the species die. Species known to mass flower do in long cycles ranging from 30 to over 100 years. (See Hinkle 2018 for more discussion.)

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3.6AAnnualBambooCarbonFlows

D.Asper D.Asper D.Asper Guadua Guadua Guadua B.Bambos B.Bambos

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InFigures3.7A&Bwepresenttheaccumulationoftheabovenetannualflows.TheeightindependentcurvesinFigure3.7AandthesevenindependentcurvesinFigure3.7Bdepicttheaccumulationofnetannualcarbonflowsforeachofthespecies-locationpairingsfortimberbambooandwood,respectively.FortimberbambooshowninFigure3.7A,theaccumulationbeginsearlyandiscontinuousduetothepresenceofregularHWPandtheabsenceofanymastfloweringintheExpectedCase(noneofthesethreespecieshavedocumentedmastflowering).Foramorecompletediscussionoftheprevalenceofmastfloweringseetheco-publishedpaper.Noticethatthesixoftheeightspecies-locationsexceeda200MT/habenchmarkbyyear12.

Forwood,showninFigure3.7B,theaccumulationofcapturedcarbontakesfarlongerandremainsalowerlevelthanfortimberbamboo.Theprecipitousdeclinesincumulativecarboncapturearetheresultofemissionsthatoccuratharvestthatsubstantiallyoffsettheotherwisecumulativecarboncapture.Noticethatnoneofthesevenspecies-locationsforwoodreachthe200MT/habenchmarkuntilyear45(orapproximately2065,whenCDRisoffarlessvalue)andthenonlythesamespecies-locationexceeds200MT/haagainanother45yearslater.

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3.7BCumulaoveWoodCarbonFlows

LoblollySE LoblollySC PonderosaPinePWE PonderosaPineRMSDouglasFirPWE DouglasFirPWW DouglasFirRMN

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4. RationalDecisionMakingBetweenWoodandTimberBambooAR–theCarbonBenefitMultiple

AssumingthecarbonflowmodelspresentedaboveproducerealisticprojectionstocomparemultiplespeciesoftimberbambooandwoodA/Ralternatives,inordertocompletearationaldecisionbetweenthealternatives,weneedtoconstructaframeworkthatcanincorporatethefollowing:

1. AlternativecasesthatarehigherandlowerthanthebaseorExpectedcase,tostresstestthespecificinputs, 2. Timevaluesofprojectednetcarbonflowstoweighearliercarboncapturemoresignificantly,accordinglytoadecision

maker’slevelofconcernaboutclimatechange, 3. ArangeofcompoundscenariosthatincludeallthreeBase,LowandHighCases,butinvariousweightingstoreflecta

fullerrangeofpossiblefutureoutcomesthanjusttheExpectedcase,and 4. Asinglepoint,bottom-line,metricthatscalestherelativebenefitoftimberbambooversusA/Rprojects.

Inthebodyofthissection,weintroduceeachoftheseelementsinthedecisionframework.Together,theyallowustoreacharobustandrationaldecisionbetweentheabilityoftimberbambooandwoodA/Rintheirrespectiveabilitytodeliverneartermcaptureandlong-termstorageofatmosphericcarbondioxide.AdiscussionoftheimplicationsofthedecisioncloseSection4.AlternativeCases1. Expected, Low and High Case Projections. Forourtimberbamboocarbonflowprojections(BCmodel)wehavesetthevariousinputstolevelsthatbestfitourcurrentunderstandingandexpectations.WecallthistheExpectedCaseorBaseCase.But,becausetheBCmodelisnovel,wealsoconstructedtwooutlyingcaseswhereinputsareadjustedtoincreaseanddecreasetheCDRcomparedtotheBaseCaseprojection.WecallthesetheLowandHighCaseprojections.Figure4.1detailsprincipalinputsfortheBaseCaseandchangesfromthebasecasefortheLowandHighCases.Theco-publishedpaperdetailseachoftheseandadditionalinputsandhowtheyareadjustedacrossthethreecases.

4.1PrincipalInputsforLow,Expected(Base)andHighCaseBambooCarbonFlowProjectionsPrincipalInputs Low Base HighMastflowering Emit100%ofstandingCarbon

Stockatspecifiedintervalsafterplanting.Guaduaat60years,D.asperandB.Bambos

at40and82yearsrespectively.

Nomastflowering Nomastflowering

%ofmaturecarbonharvested

30%(↓50%) 60% 85%(↑41%)

%ofharvestedcarbonproductizedoremittedinfield

70%,30%(↓13%) 80%,20% 90%,10%(↑13%)

%ofcarboninharvestedculmsturnedintoOSB,Paper,oremittedduringproduction

70%,15%,15%(↓18%) 85%,10%,5% 95%,5%,0%(↑12%)

%ofnon-culmabovegroundcarbonturnedintoOSB,paper,oremittedduringproduction

0%,50%,50%(↓38%) 0%,80%,20% 0%,90%,10%(↑13%)

Equilibriumgrowthratescalar(%ofthegrowthrateinthefinalyearoftheinitialgrowthperiod)

30%(↓53%) 64% 64%(↑0%)

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4.2DiscountRatesbyDifferentConcernLevels

2. Time Valuing Carbon Flows.Agreatmanyoflife’sdecisionsreflectthehighervalueofnear-termbenefitsandthelowervalueofmoredistantbenefits.Generally,thisdisproportionatetemporalvaluationreflectshavinghigherusefulnessorconfidenceinneartermbenefitsandlowerusefulnessorconfidenceinmoredistantbenefits.Surprisingly,decisionmakingbetweenclimatemitigationalternativestypicallydoesnotembracethisimpactoftime.“MostLCAstudies[includingcarbonflowsandfootprints]arebasedonastaticcalculation,wherelifecyclebalancesarecalculatedincludingsummationofallflowsthatoccurduringthestudytimehorizon,regardlessofwhentheyoccur.VeryfewLCAstudiesusingtimedependentapproacharereportedintheliterature.”(Glasare&Haglund,2016)Advancedclimatemodelsimplicitlyincorporateatimingrecognitionwhencomparingalternativescenarios,buttimediscountedvaluesareoddlynotusedintargeteddecisionmakingbetweentwospecificalternatives.Moreover,climatemodelsarehighlycomplex,andlittleunderstoodby“informed”policymakersandthebillionsofindividualsmakingdecisionsdailythatincrementallyimpactourcollectivecarbonfootprints:smallandlarge.PresentValues.Toincorporatetimevalue,eachannualnetcarbonflow(captureoremission)isreducedbyapercentagediscountrate,compoundedforthenumberofyearstheflowisinthefuture.Thesumofallthediscountedcarbonflowsresultsinapresentperiodvalueofalltheforwardflows.Thepresentvalueofdifferentlytimedcarbonflowalternativescanthenberationallycomparedastraditionallyhappensinfinanceandcorporatecapitalinvestmentdecisionmaking.DiscountRates.Thechoiceofthediscountrateappliedtothefuturecarbonflowsisobviouslyimportant.Discountratesinfinancevarybymarketcycleandperceivedriskoftheanticipatedmonetaryflows.Broadly,higherdiscountsratesareusedtoreflectgreaterperceivedriskorlevelsofconcernaboutfutureevents.Relativetoclimatechange,ifyouconsidertheriskmoderate,youwouldspecifylowerdiscountrates,perhapsrangingfrom5-10%.Ifyouconsiderthelevelof

concernseriousbutnotlifethreatening,youwouldspecifyhigherdiscountrates,perhapsbetween15and25%.Andifyouconsiderthelevelofconcernextremeandpossiblyexistentialforhumanity,youwouldspecifyaseverediscountrate,perhaps50%ormore.Notethough,thespecifieddiscountratedoesnotneedtobeafixedpercentagefortheentiretimehorizon.Itcanchangewithtimetoemphasizethesignificanceofearlierorlateroutcomes.Ifyouthinkthatimmediateactionisvitalanddistantactionisfutile,thenyouwouldspecifydiscountratesthatstepsteeplywithtime.Alargestepfunctionisconsistentwithconcernabouttheacceleratingandharmfulfeedbackcyclespresentinclimatedynamics,namely,meltingthepolaricecapsandtheGreenlandicecoverorthawingthepermafrostsoilinthenorthernhemisphere. Inourmodeling,weconstructthreepresentvaluescenariostoreflectthelevelofconcernofthedecisionmakeraboutclimatechange.Foreachlevelofconcern,thediscountratesincreasewithtime(SeeFigure4.2above.)

ExtremeConcern(highdiscountrates)

SeriousConcern(mediumdiscountrates)

ModerateConcern(Lowdiscountrates)

16

3. Weighted Scenario Analysis.Whenadecisionmakerisnotcertainthatasingleorparticularfutureprojectionwillactuallyoccur,itissensibletocombinearangeofthepossibleprojectionsorcasesbyweightingtheirrespectivelikelihoods.12

Infinancethisiscalledscenarioanalysis–awaytosensitizeresultsnotonlyonasingleassumedinputbutonacombinationofinputs,whichmightotherwiseoperateindependentlyofeachother.Differentweightingscanbeappliedtoreflectthedecisionmaker’sexpectationanduncertainty.Equalprobabilitiesassignedtoeachscenariosuggestspureuncertaintyaboutwhichprojectioncasemightoccur.Weightingtheoutliersasymmetricallyimpliesanidentifiedbiasacrosstheprojections.TocompletetheScenarioAnalysis,weconstructedfourscenarios,oneforcompleteuncertainty,oneforuncertaintybutadegreeofconfidenceintheBaseCaseScenario,onethatbiasestowardhighertimberbambooCDRandonethatbiasesagainsttimberbamboo,whilewoodprojectionsremainconstant.(SeeFigure4.3.)4. The Bottom Line: The Carbon Benefit Multiple.Thecorequestionweareaskingis:DoessubstitutingtimberbambooA/Ropportunitiesproducesuperiorcarboncaptureandstorage(CDR)comparedtowoodA/R?Toanswerthisquestion,wedevelopedtheabovemodelinganddecisionframeworkthat:

1. Generatesfullycomparablelongitudinalcarbonflowprojectionsfortimberbamboothatcanbecomparedtowoodprojectionsforforestgrowth,harvestandHWPproduction,andforfinaldisposition,

2. Combinesmultiplespeciesfrommultiplelocationsforbothtimberbambooandwood,toavoidcherrypickingwinnersandlosers,

3. ProjectsthetimberbamboocarbonflowsacrossExpected,LowandHighCases,4. Timevaluesthefulllongitudinal,multi-speciesnetcarbonflowsacrossModerate,SeriousorExtremelevelsof

concernforclimatechangebyusingdifferenttimediscountrates,5. Constructsandweightscompoundscenariostorepresentdifferentdegreesofconfidenceorbiasinthe

projections.Yet,intheend,policyanddecisionmakersfamouslyrequiresimplebottomlinecomparisonsbetweenalternatives,asin,“Canwejustgettothebottomline,please.”Thisfinalbottom-linecomparisonisreflectedinourCarbonBenefitMultiple(CBM),whichexpressesaratioofthemulti-species,time-weighted,andscenario-weightedcarbonflowprojectionsfortimberbambooA/RcomparedtothesameforwoodA/R.Themultiplesimplydividestheresultsof1-5abovefortimberbamboo,by1-5aboveforwood.Whentheratioisgreaterthanone,timberbambooA/RismorepotentatdeliveringCDRthanwoodA/Ris.Whentheratioislessthanone,woodA/RismorepotentatdeliveringCDRthanbambooA/Ris.Forexample,iftheCBMis1.15,thentimberbambooA/Ris15%morepotentdeliveringtimeweightedCDRthanwoodA/Ris.IftheCBMis2.75thentimberbambooA/Risgenerating175%moreCDRthanwoodA/R.UsingonlytheBaseCaseforillustrativepurposes,Figure4.4showshowtheCarbonBenefitMultipleisderivedbycomparingtheCDRfortimberbambooacrosseachofthefourconcernlevels.Inabsoluteterms,noticehowlargetheCarbonBenefitMultipleisfortimberbamboocomparedtowoodacrossallpossibleconcernlevels(timevaluing)fortheBaseorExpectedCase.

12Intheextremecaseofmultiplescenarios,theweightedscenarioanalysiscanbecomeaMonteCarlosimulation,whichisacommonoptionpricingmethodologyinfinance.

33%

17% 15%

60%

33%

66%

25% 25%33%

17%

60%

15%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

A.CompleteUncertainty B.SomeUncertainty C.BambooOverperforms D.BambooUnderperforms

Likelihood

4.3ScenarioProbabilityWeighongsbyCase

Low Base High Low Base High Low Base HighLow Base High

17

555

143101 72

112

27 18 12

4.9CBM

5.4CBM5.6CBM

5.9CBM

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

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0

200

400

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Zero Modest Serious Extreme

CBMC/HA(MT)

4.4BaseCase:CarbonBenefitMulople

TheseresultssuggestthattimberbambooA/RsystemscanbefiveormoretimesaspotentaswoodA/Rsystems,whenbothsystemsareundergoingHWPextraction.WhencomparingtheBaseCaseresultsforthethreelevelsofconcern,noticethefollowingobservations:(1)inthe“Zero”timevaluingcomparison,timberbambooA/RhasaCBMof4.9xthatofwood,(2)inthe“Modest“to“Extreme”comparisons,theoveralleffectoftimevaluingistosignificantlylowertheCDRofbothtimberbambooandwoodbyaboutthree-quarters,(3)acrossthethree“Modest”to“Extreme”levelsofconcern,theCBMrisesinfavoroftimberbambooasthelevelofconcernaboutclimatechange(usinghigherdiscountrates)increases.ThislastobservationreflectsthatprevalenceofneartermcarbonflowsfromtimberbambooA/RcomparedtowoodA/R.

WhendevelopingandtestingtheGeneralizedModelofTimberBambooCarbonFlows,wedidnotanticipatethattimberbambooA/RwouldoutperformwoodA/Rsosignificantly.Accordingly,whenwesawtimberbamboo’srelativelydominatingresults,weaddedtheScenarioAnalysistothedecisionframeworktomakesurethecomparisonwascompletedacrossaverywiderangeofinputs.Figure4.5showsthecompletedCBMprojectionsforthefourscenarios,whichweightoutvariouslikelihoodsfortheLow,ExpectedandHighCases.

ThefigurepresentseachweightedScenarioresultwiththethreeLevelsofConcern(timevaluing).TheScenarioresultsagainshowtimberbambooA/RisrobustlysuperiortowoodA/RforallScenariosA-D,generallyproducingfivetimesthetime-valuedCDR/hectareofland,whenHWPextractionisincludedforbothA/Rsystems.ThisremainsthefindingeveninD.BambooUnderperformsScenario,whererepeatedmastfloweringisassumedtooccurforallthreespecies.Asexpected,withineachofthetripletsforallScenarios,thegreatertheLevelofConcern(highertimevalue)thegreatertheCBMfortimberbamboo.BecauseofthecriticalimportanceofHWPinA/Rsystems,wenextdiscussourcompany’sproductcontributiontoHWPthatcanhelpturnbambooplantationsinperpetualcarbonfarms.

5.35.3

5.6

5.1

5.55.6

5.8

5.4

5.85.9 6.0

5.8

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0

6.2

A.CompleteUncertainty B.SomeUncertainty C.BambooOutperforms D.BambooUnderperforms

CBM

4.5CBMComparisonBetweenScenarios

Moderate

Serious

Extreme

18

ImplicationsWecompletedourworktoestablisharobustframeworktoanswerthecorequestion:DoessubstitutingtimberbambooA/Ropportunitiesproducesuperiorcarboncaptureandstorage(CDR)comparedtowoodA/R?Wedidnotexpecttheresultstonecessarilyfavortimberbambooandcertainlydidnotexpectthemagnitudenorrobustnesstobeaswehavenowreportedabove.Moreover,thepotencyoftimberbamboo’sCDRissogreatthatthecarefulconstructionofourdecisionframeworkdoesnotalterthisbasicconclusion.ThisisseenwhencomparingtheCBMcalculatedontheundiscountedBaseCasecarbonflowsinFigure4.4withallthefinalCBMsinallScenariosAtoDinFigure4.5.Ineverycase,timberbambooA/RwithregularharvestintodurableHWPprovides4.5xto6xtheamountofcarbondioxideremovalthatasimilarwoodA/Rprojectdoes.Earliercommentersfamiliarwithbamboo’sfastgrowthhavepointedtotimberbambooasasuperiorsequestrationsystemcomparedtowood.Buttheseassertionshavebeensinglepointcomparisonsnotsubjectedtosensitivityanalysis,nottimevaluedandnotgeneralizable.Throughourworkwehavebuiltamodelthatcancompareannualcarbonflowsoftimberbambooandwoodwithinacomprehensivedecision-orientedframeworktoreachA/Rdecisionsthatreliablydeliverthebenefitofnear-termcaptureandlong-termstorageofatmosphericcarbon.Critically,theseresultsdependontheregularextractionofHarvestedWoodProductsandtheirplacementintolong-termstorage,likethebuiltenvironment.Accordingly,wenextaddresstheuseoftimberbamboointhebuilt-environment.

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5.ProductizingTimberBamboointoDurableCarbonStoringProducts.Timberbamboo’snaturalregenerationadvantageoverwoodhaslongbeenknown.However,asexplainedinSections3and4,theabilitytoturnanA/RprojectintoaperpetualcarbonfarmrequiresregularpartialharvestingandmanufacturingofHWPwithlongservicelives.Byitsfastgrowthandearlyandregularharvests,timberbamboodoesthis.Byextension,todriveanewindustryofcommerciallyviableperpetualcarbonfarmsrequiressubstantialdemandforlong-livedbamboo-basedHWP.Withthatdemand,bambooplantationswillbecomecommerciallyattractiveandgainincrementalA/Rinvestments(whereappropriate),thusbecomingperpetualcarbonfarmswhileprovidingvaluableHWP.TheUNFCCChasincorporatedHWP“contributions”intothereportingofnationalGHGinventories.Andmanyscientistshavealreadyhighlightedtheimportanceoflong-livedHWPtoachievingA/Rsequestration.OnestudyreportedthatHWPcontributionsintheUSalreadyequaledabout20%ofallforestcarboncaptureand“couldbeincreasedby…increasingthefractionofwoodusedintheUnitedStatesthatisstoredinlong-livedproducts.”(IPCC,2006)Thebuiltenvironmentwithitslongservicelivesandenormoussizeprovidesthemostpotentcarbonstorageoptionforbamboo-basedHWP.Todate,eventhoughbambooflooringhasbecomepopularinmanydevelopedcountries,itsimpactremainsmicroscopic.Evenwhencombiningbambooflooringanddecorativepanels,bamboo-basedHWPimportedintotheUSannually(nearlyallfromChina)remainslessthan304million.(INBAR,2015)Besidesbeingasmallmarket,flooringandpanelingaresubjecttotastedrivendesigndecisionsandtheynearlyalwayshaveasubstantiallyshorterservicelifethanthestructuralshellofthebuilding.Thus,USdemandfor(mostlyChinese)flooringanddecorativepanelingisnottheenginetohelpdrivetimberbambooA/R.Incontrasttothelimitedsizedflooringmarket,theoverallUSconstructionmarketisinexcessof$1trillion.BamCore’smissionistodevelophighvalue,durableproductsforthelargestsegmentoftheoverallconstructionmarket,low-risestructuralframing,whichexceeds$100billionannuallyintheUS.AcrosstheUSandCanada,low-risebuildingaccountsforabout90%ofthebuiltenvironment.Woodtimberbasedstructuralframing,inturn,accountsforover90%ofalllow-riseframing.WhenHWPisusedinstructuralframing,asopposedtodecorativepanelsorflooring,thestructuralandoperatingperformanceandnotdesignpreferencecandrivethespecificationdecisiontowardsuperiorperformingtimberbamboo.Moreover,onceincorporatedintothebuilding’sstructure,thebamboo-basedcomponentsenjoythelongestpossibleservicelife.Typicalestimatesoftheservicelifeoflow-risebuildingsintheUSrangefrom50to75yearsormore.WhileourfocushereistodemonstratethepotencywithwhichtimberbambooHWPcandrivecarbonfarmingandcarbonsequestration,thatbenefitalonewillnotdrivelarge-scalesubstitutionfromwoodtobamboobuildingandframingproducts.Todrivelarge-scalesubstitutionrequiresthatbamboo-basedproductsbecompletelycostcompetitivewithwoodwhilealsoofferingarangeofadditionalbenefits,beyondjustthecarbonfootprintbenefit.BamCore’sPrimeWallSystem.BamCore’srecentlylaunchedPrimeWallSystemisbothcostcompetitiveandoffersawiderangeofadditionalbenefits,beyondthecarbonfootprint.Bydesigninghigh-performanceloadandshear-bearingpanels,BamCorewasabletointroduceahollow-wallsystemthateliminatesthemostofthecross-cavityandverticalstudsinthelow-riseconstructionmarket.Whenusingthebamboo-basedpanelsinahollow-walldesign,severaladditionalbenefitsandattributesbecomeevident.Acrossnearlyeveryperformancecategory,BamCore’sPrimeWalloffersasuperiorproduct. Figure5.1illustratesthesuperiorperformancethatiscapturedinBamCore’sPrimeWallSystemforfivequantifiableattributeswhencomparedtoconventionalbuildingproducts. Basedonitstimberbamboocore,thePrimeWallprovidesmorecompressivestrengththanaconventional2x6Douglasfirwall.Forthermalperformance,thewallassemblythermalresistance(“R”)ratingsubstantiallyexceedsaconventional2x6wallthathasstandardbattinsulationinbothcoldandwarmclimatesettings.Airleakage,whichalsoimpactthermalperformance,issubstantiallylessforthePrimeWallinbothlowandhigh-pressuresettings.TheFlameSpreadratingisnearlyClassAandsignificantlyexceedsDouglasfirandOSB.AndthemoldriskinherentinnewconstructionissubstatiallylesswhenPrimeWallisusedincomparisontoaconventionalwall.

20

Inadditiontotheaboveattributes,thePrimeWallprovidesanextremelyhighlevelofsoundisolationcomparedtoaconventionalwallsystem.ItenjoysaLevel1ratingfromtheNationalInstituteofJusticeforresistancetosmallhandguns.ThePrimeWallSystemalsosavessubstantialconstructionlaborandlowersjobsitewaste.Withthisbroadcollectionofperformanceattributes,whenownerssubstitutethe

BamCorePrimeWallforaconventionalwallfortheirbuilding,buildingownersnotonlyimprovetheirindividualcarbonfootprintsignificantlycomparedtoconventionalwoodframing,buttheyalsobenefitfromimprovedattributesforeachofthesefeatures.Thecombinationofthermal,airleakageandmoldriskattributeswillimmediatelydrivesuperioroperatingperformance,thusloweringoperatingcosts.PassivScience,abuildingperformanceengineeringfirm,completeda12NorthAmerican-citysimulationoftheperformanceofBamCore’sPrimeWall.Thissimulationshowedthatsingle-familyhomeownerscouldsaveanaverageof$1850annuallyor$32,500presentvaluedfor30yearsinlowerheatingandcoolingbills.Thus,buildingsconstructedwithBamCorePrimeWallswillenjoybothloweredembodiedenergyandoperatingenergy,resultinginanunmatchedlowcombinedcarbonfootprintwithgreateroperatingperformance.Moreover,thespeedandaccuracywheninstallingthecustomizedfactorypre-fabricatedwallsystemlowerstheconstructioncostinputoftotalcosts.Ofcourse,anybamboo-basedbuildingproduct,BamCoreorotherwise,thatissubstitutedforwoodwilllowertheembodiedenergyandconstructioncarbonfootprint.However,asstatedabove,todriveadoptionintheconstructionmarket,loweringtheembodiedcarbonfootprintaloneisnotsufficient.Byprovidingfasterandeasierconstructionandbycapturingoperatingadvantages,theadoptiondecisionbecomesfareasier.BeyondWoodFraming-Concrete&Steel.ThemainconclusionfromouranalysisinSection4isthatbysubstitutingtimberbambooforwoodinlong-livedHWPframingproducts,wecandriveanewgenerationofpotentcarbonfarmsasbambooA/Rprojectsgrow.Butthisbamboo-for-woodsubstitutionisreadilyobviousonlyinthoseeconomieswherewood-basedframingdominates,namelyNorthAmerica.IntheUSandCanadianresidentialbuildingmarket,woodframingcommandsabout95%ofthemarket(USCensus,2017).Elsewhereintheworld,concreteandothercementitiousmaterialsare“themostcommonconstructionmaterialadoptedforresidentialconstruction”(Dodoo,2009)innon-ruralmarkets.Inasmallpercentageofinstances,framingisevencompletedwithsteelstuds.Inbothcases,abundantresearcharguesforthecarboncaptureandperformancesuperiorityofwoodcomparedconcreteandsteel.Belowweillustratethebenefitsofwoodcomparedtoconcreteandsteel.GiventhesuperiorityofBamCore’sPrimeWalltoconventionalwoodframing,comparedtoconcreteandsteelthecarbonandoperatingperformanceadvantagesoftheBamCorePrimeWallareevengreaterstill.FramingwithConcrete.Globally,themanufacturingofcementcontributesabout5%ofglobalGHGemissions.Themanufacturingprocessreleasesnearlyequalamountsofcarbondioxidefromthethermalinputrequirements(cementkilnsoperateatnearly1500oC)andfromcalcination,thechemicalreactiontheproducescementandCO₂fromlimestone.(Dodoo,etal.,2014)Dozensofpublishedresearcharticlesnearlyuniformlydecrycement’sinordinatelyhigh-embodiedenergywhenusedasabuildingwallsystemwherewoodiseasilyabetteroption.Concrete,whichcontains12%to15%cement,doesn’ttypicallyofferasufficientlysuperioroperatingperformancetoovercomethishigh-embodiedenergy.“Comparedtowoodconstruction,concreteconstruction[results]insignificantlyhigherconsumptionofenergy(+38%),emissionsofgreenhousegases(+80%),emissionstoair(+46%),andgenerationofsolidwastes(+164%).”(Bowyer,etal.,2008)

21

40

62

76

94

0

25

50

75

100

BamCorePrimeWall

Wood SheetMetal Concrete

Carbon(MT)

Mateial

5.2EmbodiedEnergyinAverageResidenoalHomeThemainthermalperformancebenefitcitedforconcreteframingisitsmuchhigherthermalmasscomparedtowoodframing.Thermalmasscanhelpsaveoperatingenergy,butonlyinlimitedinstances.Typicallyforthermalmasstolowerenergycostsitrequiresverycarefuldesignandplacementaswellaslesscommonlocalclimateconsiderations.Itisdifficulttoachievethermalbenefitsfromthermalmassincolderclimateswithoutelongatedeast-westfloorplans.Overall,researchersfromOakRidgeNationalLaboratoriesconcludedthathighthermalmassconcretewallsmostlyperformbetterinwarmerclimatesandnotincolderclimatesbuteveninwarmerclimatesanticipateddiurnaltemperatureswingsmustencompassthehumancomfortzoneandwhentheydon’tsignificantenergycanberequiredtore-establishtherequiredtemperatures(Kosny,etal.,2001).Overall,multiplestudieshavefoundthatwood-framedbuildingshavelowernetcarbonemissionsthanconcreteafterconsideringhigherembodiedenergy,comparablenominaloperatingperformanceandthermalmass((Koch,1992),(Borjesson&Gustavsson,2000)(Pingoud&Perala,2000)(Gustavsson,etal.,2006)).Astheclimatechangefocusbeginstobearonthebuiltenvironment,policymakersandcommercialdecisionmakerswillraisethebarforconcretewalledstructurescomparedtowood.Manyofthelocations,whereconcretestructureshavebeenhistoricallypreferred,areinorneartonaturalhabitatsfortimberbamboo.Therisingavailabilityofengineeredbamboobuildingproducts,likeBamCore’sPrimeWallSystems,providesanopportunitytoshiftdirectlyfromhighembodiedenergyconcretetotimberbamboo.Theresultwillbeextremelycompellingcarboncapturingbenefitswithoutanylossoffunctionorperformance.FramingwithSteel.Thecomparisonofsteeltowood-basedbuildingmaterialsisevenmorefrightfulthanforconcrete.Thecarbonfootprinttoproducesteelframingproductsisabout20timesthatofwood(Lippke,etal.,2004).EachtonneofsteelmadereleasestwotonnesofCO₂.Atypicalhouseusingsteelframinghasreleasedabout3.5tonnesofcarbonintotheatmosphere,whilewoodframingstoresover3.1tonnesofcarbon.Moreover,theinternalcarbonefficiencyofproducingwoodframingisquitehigh.Whenincorporatingtheenergycoststoharvest,millandmanufacture,woodframingproductsstoreupto15timesmorecarbonthantheamountofcarbonreleasedinitsproduction(Ferguson,etal.,1996).Onceinoperation,steelisalsoanotoriouslypowerfulthermalbridge,thusrequiringadditionalinsulationmaterialsandneededlabortoreachacomparablethermalperformancetostandardwoodframing.Resourceconservationisthemainenvironmentalargumentforsteelinframingbuildings,sincesteelis100%recyclable.However,whentheobjectiveweighsclimatechangemitigationtheconclusionisclear:steeldoesn’twork.Anyeffectiveresponsetoclimatechangereliesdirectlyontimelymitigationresults,waitinguntiltheendofaservicelifetoaccruethebenefitofsteel’sperfectrecyclabilitycompletelydefeatsthetimingimperativethatwenowfacefightingclimatechange.Moreover,notfactoreddirectlyintotheclimatemitigationoutcomesisthefactthatsteelproductionproducestentimestheamountofSO₂,threetimestheamountofparticulatesandnearly40timestheamountoftaintedwatereffluents(Lawson,1996).Whilesteelframingconstitutesonly1-2%ofthelow-riseframingmarket,steelframingmembersarefrequentlyincludedinotherwisewoodframedbuildingsbecausewooddoesn’tpossesstherequisitetensileorcompressivestrengthtoeasilyspanlongdistancesorserveasmomentframes.Sincebambooenjoysfarhighertensilestrengthandcompressivestrengththanwood,properlyengineeredtimberbamboocanhelptosupplantthiscommonuseofsteelinlow-riseframing.BamCore’sPrimeWallSystemhasbeenengineeredtoeliminatetheneedforadditionalsteelmomentframes,incertaindesigns.Thus,thegeneralsubstitutionofBamCorePrimeWallsfortraditionalwoodframing,canalsoeliminatetheneedforhighcarbonfootprintandSO₂pollutingsteel.

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Mankind’sprevailingclimatecrisisisindireneedofsolutions.Ifimplementedsuccessfully,timberbamboo-basedA/Rprojectscanbepowerfulperpetualcarbonfarmswithfargreatersequestrationpotencycomparedtowood.Inordertobesuccessful,however,theremustbeawaytoproductizeharvestedbamboointoproductswithlongusefullivesthatwillstorethefiberoutsidetheatmospohere.BamCore’sbuildingproductscanbeasignificantdriverofthissolution.Ourbamboo-basedPrimeWallsystemisnotonlygreener,butitsattributesalsoperformfarbetterthantraditionalwoodframingacrossallcategories.Thetimeisnowfortheworldtotakeadvantageofnature’sfastestgrowingstructuralfiber.

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AboutBamCore

24

ReferencesBloomberg,M.&Pope,C.,2017.ClimateofHope:HowCities,Businesses,andCitizensCanSavethePlanet.1ed.NewYorkCity:St.Martins.

Bonn, 2018. Bonn Challenge. [Online] Available at: www.bonnchallenge.org

Borjesson, P. & Gustavsson, L., 2000. Greenhouse gas balances in building construction: wood versus concrete from life-cycle and forest land-use perspectives.. Energy Policy, Volume 28, pp. 575-588.

Bowyer, J. et al., 2008. How does it compare to wood, steel?, Minneapolis: Dovetail Partners, Inc.

Dodoo, A., Gustavsson, L. & Sathre, R., 2014. Lifecylce carbon implications of conventional and low-energy multi-storey timber building systems. Energy and Buildings, pp. 194-210.

FAO, 2010. Global Forest Resources Assessment 2010, Rome: FAO.

Ferguson, I. et al., 1996. Environmental Properties of Timber, Victoria: Forest and Wood Products Research and Development Corporation.

Glasare, G. & Haglund, P., 2016. Climate impacts of wood vs. non-wood buildings, Stockholm: The Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions.

Gustavsson, L., Pingoud, K. & Roger, S., 2006. Carbon dioxide balance of wood substitution: comparing concrete and wood-framed buildings, Ostersund: S.N.

Hinkle, W., Hargett, T. & Bailon, W., 2017. BamCore and Global Warming, Windsor: BamCore.

Hinkle, W., McGinley, M., Hargett, T. & Dascher, S., 2018. A Generalized Model of Timber Bamboo Carbon Flows, Windsor: BamCore.

INBAR, 2010. Bamboo and Climate Change Mitigation : A comparative analysis of carbon sequestration, Bejing: INBAR.

INBAR, 2015. Trade Overview 2015: Bamboo and Rattan Products in the International Market, Bejing: INBAR.

INBAR, 2018. Updates on INBAR BONN Challenge Committments, Bejing: INBAR.

IPCC, 2006. Guidlines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Geneva: IPCC.

IPCC, 2018. Global Warming of 1.5 C, Incheon: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Koch, P., 1992. Wood versus nonwood materials in U.S. residential construction: Some energy-related global implications. Forest Products Journal, 42(5), pp. 31-42.

Kosny, J. et al., 2001. Thermal Mass- Energy Savings Potential in Residential Buildings, Oak Ridge: Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

Lawson, B., 1996. Building materials, energy, and the environment: Towards ecologically sustainable development. , Red Hill: Royal Australian Institute of Architects.

Lippke, B., Perez-Garcia, J., Bowyer, J. & Wilson, J., 2004. CORRIM: Life-Cycle Environmental Performance of Renewable Building Materials. Forest Products, 54(6).

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Lobovikov, M., Paudel, S., Piazza, M. & Wu, J., 2005. World Bamboo Resources: A thematic study prepared in the framework of Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005, Rome: FAO.

Masek, J. G. et al., 2011. Recent rates of forest harvest and conversion in North America. Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 116.

Micales, J. & K.E. , S., 1996. The Decompostion of Forest Products in Landfilles , Madison: USFS.

Nath, A. J., Lal , R. & Kumar Das, A., 2015. Managine Woody bamboos for carbon farming and carbon trading. Global Ecology and Conservation, Volume 3, pp. 654-663.

New, M., Livereman, D., Schroder, H. & Anderson, K., 2011. Four Degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperatur increase of four degrees and it implications. Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society, pp. 6-19.

Pingoud, K. & Perala, A., 2000. Studies on greenhouse impacts of wood construction. 1. Scenario analysis of potential wood utilization in Finnish new construction in 1990 and 1994. 2. Inventory of carbon stock of wood products in the Finnish building stock in 1980, 1990, and 1995., Espoo: Technical Research Center of Finland.

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Appendix:InternationalForestationCommitments

BonnCommitments BambooReforestationProjects(INBAR)2020 2030 Total Since2014 Planned(2018-2020)

LatinAmerica&Caribbean

Argentina 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000BelizeBosquesModelo 1,600,000Brazil 12,000,000 12,000,000 22,000,000Brazil'sAtlanticForestRestorationPact 1,000,000 1,000,000Chile 500,000 500,000 500,000Colombia 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000ConservacionPatagonica 1,000,000CostaRica 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000CubaDominicanRepublic 89,000Ecuador 500,000 500,000 500,000ElSalvador 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000Guatemala 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,200,000GuatemalaPrivateNaturalReserves 40,000 40,000Honduras 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000Jamaica 2 20,000Mexico 8,470,000 8,470,000 8,470,000Mexico(Campeche) 350,000 350,000Mexico(Chiapas) 180,000 180,000Mexico(QuintanaRoo) 400,000 400,000Mexico(Yucatan) 300,000 300,000Nicaragua 2,700,000 2,700,000 2,800,000Panama 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000ParaguayPeru 3,200,000 3,200,000 3,200,000 2,660 1,000SurinameUruguay 2,500,000

Total 23,610,000 13,230,000 36,840,000 49,859,000 2,662 21,000

NorthAmericaAmericanBirdConservancy 100,000UnitedStates 15,000,000 15,000,000

Total 15,000,000 15,000,000 100,000Asia

AsiaPulpandPaper 1,000,000 1,000,000Armenia 260,000Bangladesh 750,000 750,000 730 8,340Benin 200,000 300,000 500,000Georgia 10,000China 1,000,000India 13,000,000 8,000,000 21,000,000 100,000 200,000IndonesiaKazakhstan 1,500,000Kygyzstan 320,000Malaysia 1,000Mongolia 600,000 600,000Nepal 1,500Pakistan 100,000 100,000Pakistan(KPK) 350,000 250,000 600,000Phillipines 6,257 225,746SriLanka 200,000 200,000 1,000 15,000Tajikistan 70,000Uzbekistan 500,000Vietnam 95,000

Total 16,200,000 11,210,000 27,410,000 109,487 1,545,086

AfricaBurundi 2,000,000 2,000,000 300 345Cameroon 12,060,000 12,060,000CentralAfricanRepublic 1,000,000 2,500,000 3,500,000Chad 5,000,000 5,000,000Côted'Ivoire 5,000,000 5,000,000DemocraticRepublicofCongo 8,000,000 8,000,000Ethiopia 15,000,000 15,000,000 500,000Ghana 2,000,000 2,000,000 14,100 46,000Guinea 2,000,000 2,000,000Kenya 5,100,000 5,100,000 200Liberia 1,000,000 1,000,000Madagascar 2,500,000 1,500,000 4,000,000 150 1,600,000Malawi 2,000,000 2,500,000 4,500,000Mozambique 1,000,000 1,000,000 120 1,600Niger 3,200,000 3,200,000Nigeria 4,000,000 4,000,000 36,000RepublicofCongo 2,000,000 2,000,000Rwanda 2,000,000 2,000,000 100 300Tanzania 90 5,000

Uganda 2,500,000 2,500,000 60 3,000

Total 39,200,000 44,660,000 83,860,000 14,920 2,192,445Totals

TotalCommitment 94,010,000 69,100,000 163,110,000 49,959,000 127,069 3,758,531TotalGoal 150,000,000 350,000,000 500,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000%Commitment 63% 20% 33% 3% 75%NumberofParties 33 26 47 18 14 19

Country/Party Initiative20x20