Carbon Emissions Primer Black 121109 - Home | PNUCC Emissions Primer Black...Carbon Emissions Primer...
Transcript of Carbon Emissions Primer Black 121109 - Home | PNUCC Emissions Primer Black...Carbon Emissions Primer...
11/8/2012
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Carbon Emissions Primer
Presentation to PNUCCPresentation to PNUCCSystem Planning Committee
Charlie BlackPower Planning Division Director
Northwest Power & Conservation Council
November 9, 2012Portland, OR
Measures of Weight
Short Ton = 2 000 lbs Short Ton = 2,000 lbs
Metric Ton (Tonne) = 2,204.6 lbs
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CO2 Chemistry
1 molecule of CO2 = 1 atom C + 2 atoms O1 molecule of CO2 1 atom C + 2 atoms O
Atomic mass of CO2• C = 12 grams/mole
• O = 16 grams/mole
12+ (2*16) = 44 grams/mole CO2
Carbon content per tonne of CO2 (12/44)*2,204.6 = 601.2 lbs C/tonne CO2
CO2 Content by Fuel (lbs CO2 per MMBtu of Fuel)
Coal (subbituminous) 212.7
Natural gas 117.1
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Fuel Conversion Efficiencies (MMBtu of Fuel per MWh of Power)
Coal-fired generation• Conventional (existing PNW fleet) 10.70
Natural gas-fired generation• Combined-cycle combustion turbine 6.93
• Single-cycle combustion turbine 9.37g y 9 37
• Large reciprocating engine 8.85
Emissions by Generation Type (lbs CO2 per MWh of Power)
Coal-fired generation• Conventional (existing PNW fleet) 2,277
Natural gas-fired generation• Combined-cycle combustion turbine 812
• Single-cycle combustion turbine 1,097g y , 97
• Large reciprocating engine 1,036
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CO2 Costs by Generation Type ($/MWh)
CO2 Tax or Price$10/ $40/$ / $4 /tonne tonne
Coal-fired generation• Conventional (existing PNW fleet) $10.33 $41.30
Natural gas-fired generation• Combined-cycle combustion turbine $3.68 $14.73• Single-cycle combustion turbine $4.98 $19.91• Large reciprocating engine $4.70 $18.81
Regulatory Approaches to Reduce CO2 Emissions
Mandates (e.g., emissions performance standards renewable portfolio standards)standards, renewable portfolio standards)• Simple, somewhat inflexible
Carbon taxes• Use market forces to achieve compliance
• Costs are known, effects are uncertain
C d t d Cap and trade programs• Use market forces to achieve compliance
• Effects are known, costs are uncertain
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National CO2 Emissions(Electric Power Sector)
3,000Millions of Tonnes
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
NG
Coal
Total
0
500
1980 1990 2005 2011
National CO2 Emissions (Electric Power Sector)
1200
1400Millions of Tonnes
400
600
800
1000
1200
NG
Coal
Total
0
200
400
2011 (Jan‐Jul) 2012 (Jan‐Jul)
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Forces Driving the Reduction in CO2 Emissions
Energy intensity of economy is decreasinggy y y g• Product mix
• Energy efficiency
Recession? • GDP in 2011 was 5 6% higher than 2005GDP in 2011 was 5.6% higher than 2005
Forces Driving the Reduction in CO2 Emissions
Power plant dispatch costs have shifted –natural gas is now competitive with coalnatural gas is now competitive with coal• Lower natural gas prices• Higher coal prices (coal growing as export
commodity)
Coal plant retirementsp• State emissions performance standards• More stringent regulation of non-CO2 emissions• Aging coal fleet, needs for refurbishment
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The U.S. Coal Fleet Is Aging
75% of nameplate capacity > 30 years old 75% of nameplate capacity > 30 years old
50% of nameplate capacity > 37 years old
40% of nameplate capacity > 40 years old 40% of nameplate capacity > 40 years old
Carbon Intensity of the Northwest Power System is Low
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…and Becoming More So
70 0
Sixth Plan Carbon Emissions
20 0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
ion
To
ns P
er
Year
1990 Level: 44 Million Tons
15
0.0
10.0
20.0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028
Mill
Coal is Becoming a Smaller Share of Northwest Power Resources
Hydropower46%
Energy Efficiency16%
Geothermal<1%
Natural Gas11%
Nuclear4%
Wind4%
Biomass1%
Petroleum & Pet Coke<1%
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Coal18%
Does not reflect announced coal plant closures
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Announced Coal Plant Retirements in the Northwest
Centralia: 2 x 670 megawatt unitsg• First unit closure 2020
• Second unit closure 2025
Boardman: 550 megawatts• Closure 2020C osu e 0 0
Federal Estimates of Social Costs of CO2 Emissions
Interagency “Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis”
Social Cost of CO2, 2010 – 2050 (2010$/tonne)
Discount RateYear
5%Average
3%Average
2.5%Average
3%95th Percentile
2010 4.7 21.4 35.1 64.9
2015 5.7 23.8 38.4 72.8
2020 6 8 26 3 41 7 80 7
Impact Analysis
2020 6.8 26.3 41.7 80.7
2025 8.2 29.6 45.9 90.4
2030 9.7 32.8 50.0 100.0
2035 11.2 36.0 54.2 109.7
2040 12.7 39.2 58.4 119.3
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Avista 2011 IRP
Idaho Power 2013 IRP (Draft)
$90.00
$ per Ton Co2 (2012$)
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
High Case
Planning
No Carbon
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
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PacifiCorp 2013 IRP
Puget Sound Energy 2013 IRP (Draft)
180
200
80
100
120
140
160
Nom
inal $/Ton
2013 IRP High
2013 IRP Mid
2011 IRP High
2011 IRP Mid
2013 IRP Low
‐
20
40
60
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