Carbon, Development and Growth

©Ed McMahon

Urban Land Institute

April 27, 2011

ULI Mission

The mission of the Urban Land Institute is to provide leadership in the responsible use of land and in

creating and sustaining thriving communities world wide

“If you’re not changing business as

usual, you’re failing.” -- Brent

Toderian, Planning Director,

Vancouver, B.C

What is Sustainable

Development and

why is it vital?

“Sustainable development is development

that meets the needs of the present without

compromising the ability of future

generations to meet their own needs.”

Source: United Nations, Bruntland

Commission Report

It is about our children

-Aldo Leopold

“Conservation is a state of

harmony between man and

nature.”

Sustainability Goals

• Healthy Environment

• Vigorous Economy

• Vibrant Community

Sustainability in Action

Sustainability is about more than technology

• At its most basic, “sustainable” means enduring.

Sustainable communities are places of enduring

value.

• Sustainability is about affordability, walkability,

place-making, community building.

Why Sustainability Now ?

• Climate Change

• Energy Issues

• Infrastructure

Deficit

• Unsustainable

Land use

• Population Growth

• Makes Business

Sense

Climate Change

• “Global Warming is

unequivocal, and

human activity is the

main driver, very

likely causing most of

the rise in

temperatures since

1950” • Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change – Feb. 2007

Climate Change Impacts on Oregon

• More summer droughts

• More and bigger forest fires

• More frequent and harmful

floods

• Greater vulnerability of forests to

insects and disease

• Less snow at ski resorts

• Source: “The Economic Impacts of

Climate Change in Oregon, 2005

Moral Imperative?

Regulatory Imperative?

• 33 states representing 70% of US population are developing climate action plans.

• 21 states including have set carbon reduction targets.

• 1060 US Mayors, representing over 100 million people have adopted the Kyoto Protocol.

• The US EPA is starting to regulate greenhouse gas emissions

• Sources: Newsweek, US Conference of Mayors,

High Energy Prices?

• In 1970 the US imported

24% of its oil from foreign

providers

• In 1990 the US imported

42% of its oil

• In 2008 the US imported

70% of its oil

• The cost of imported oil

reached over $600 billion

per year in 2008

Do you think the

long term trend

for energy prices

is to go up or

down?

Energy Efficiency

• We need to nurture all

the cost effective

energy efficiency

measures we can,

right now, because

that is always

cheaper than

generating new

power.

Improving Energy Efficiency is Far Less

Costly than Building New Power Plants

Energy Efficiency

• A 10 percent increase in

air conditioner efficiency

equals =

• Twelve 400-megawatt

power plants

• Source: US Energy Administration

California Energy Efficiency

• After the 1973 oil price shock, California

instituted the highest efficiency standards of any

state for buildings and appliances.

• The net result: Per capita electricity consumption

in California has stayed almost flat for past 30

years, even though the California economy has

vastly expanded.

• Per capita electricity consumption in rest of US

has grown by 50 percent, over the same period.

California Energy Efficiency

• If California energy

use had grown at the

same rate as the rest

of the US, it would

have needed 25,000

additional megawatts

of power, equal to 50

large power plants.

50 Power Plants Avoided

Unsustainable Land Use in USA

Large Lot Subdivisions Strip Commercial

Taking Up More Space

Household vs. Lot Size

Lot

Size

Family

Size

Even though the number of people per household has

decreased from 3.57 to 2.62 over the last 50 years, the

amount of land that each individual home consumes

has increased by nearly 60 percent.

Growth Trends Reinforce Driving

Infrastructure Deficit

• US needs $220 billion per

year for needed repairs to

roads, bridges & other

infrastructure

• Fed. state & local

government spend less than

half this amount

• Federal gas tax hasn’t been

raised since 1993

• We’re falling behind our

global competitors

I-35 Bridge Collapse Minneapolis

Train Service in Europe & Asia

• FAST

• Frequent

• Goes

Everywhere

Train Service in US

• Slow

• Infrequent, or

• Non-Existent

Population Growth

• 100 Million New

Residents by 2050

• 44 Million New Housing

units

• 1.1 Million Units per year

• Demographic shifts and

Immigration

• Decline of Traditional

Households

Demographic Shifts

• Baby Boomers and Retirees – 80 million

• Immigrants – 40 million

• Millennials (18 to 30 year olds) – 80 million

• Women (single-parent households) - 30

million

• 75 % of American households do not have

school age children

Green Buildings – A Key to

Sustainability

• Energy Efficiency

• Water Conservation

and Reuse

• Indoor Air Quality

• Materials

• Site Planning and

Waste Management

• 3rd Party Verification

Test

7748

LEED Certified

Projects

31,975+ LEED Registered Projects

LEED

Projects in

USA total

30,000+ in

2010

CBF HQ – Annapolis, MD

LEED Platinum, 2000

Office Buildings

Hearst Building, NY LEED Gold, 2006

AT&T Bldg., Los Angeles, LEED

Gold 2009

Genzyme Bldg. Cambridge, LEED

Platinum, 2010

Palazzo Resort and Casino – Las

Vegas, Nevada

LEED Silver – Largest green building in US

Ford Truck Plant – Dearborn, MI

10 Acre Green Roof – Largest in the World

Washington Nationals - Baseball

Stadium

LEED Silver 2008

1st LEED Certified McDonald’s

Savannah, Georgia

LEED Silver -2007

Green Buildings in Oregon

• 221 LEED Certified

projects

• 325 LEED Registered

projects

• Source: US Green Building

Council, 2011

REI, Portland, LEED Gold

“The recession will slow, but not

fundamentally alter the market shift to

sustainable real estate.”

RREEF Research, San Francisco, CA, 2009

“In the next construction cycle in

the US, virtually all new major

office buildings will be green and

tenants will be better informed.”

“This is likely to have a negative impact on the value of existing Class A buildings that are not compliant and boost the retrofitting

of existing buildings.”

Source: Ernst and Young, Business Risk Report, 2009

Green Retrofits

• 98% of building stock is existing buildings

• 75% of commercial buildings are more than 20 years old

• There is a $400 billion market for energy efficiency rehabs in coming years

• Empire State Building is retrofitting to reduce energy use by 40% - with a 3 year payback

Empire State Building , New York

Green Historic Rehab

• Catholic Relief

Services Headquarters

• Former Stewart’s

Department Store

• Built in 1899

• Historic rehab with new

addition

• Certified LEED Gold

Catholic Relief Services, Baltimore, MD

The Limitations of LEED

• You can’t walk here

• It is surrounded by

asphalt

• Purveyor of industrial

food

• Plastic plates, cups,

utensils

• Look-a-like architecture

KFC/Taco Bell, Northampton, MA – LEED Gold

• “Green buildings in wrong location are not truly

green. “ - Jonathan Rose

• “Where you build is just as important as what

you build.” - Peter Calthrope

Location Matters

115

125

81

83

115

28

69

20

42

20

0

50

100

150

200

250

Million BTU

per Year

Suburban

Avg (240

MBTU)

Suburban

Green

(164 MBTU)

Urban Avg

(143 MBTU)

Urban Green

(89 MBTU)

Urban

Multifamily

Green (62

MBTU)

Single Family Household Type

Transportation Use

Household Use

© Jonathan Rose Companies, LLC

Why is VMT Important?

• We can not address CO’2 emissions without addressing VMT (i.e. driving)

• VMT has grown 3 times faster than population since 1980

• Many Americans spend more time driving than vacationing.

• US DOT predicts driving will increase 59% by 2030 if trends continue.

The three-legged stool

MPG Fuel

carbon content

Vehicle

Miles

Travelled

We need progress on all 3 legs, but climate policy discussions have mostly ignored VMT

The total distance

we all drive

Why do we drive so much?

…Does it look like we have any other

choice?

Tyson’s Corner Today

Americas 1st edge city – Nation’s 10th largest CBD – 3 rush hours daily

Tysons Corner - Tomorrow

• Tysons Corner, VA just

received APA’s 2011

Daniel Burnham Award

for a adopting a visionary

Comprehensive Plan that

will transform Tysons

from America’s first edge

City into a walkable,

mixed use downtown

served by 4 rail transit

stations.

Compact Development vs. Sprawl

Sprawl

• Low densities

• Single uses

• Strip development

• Poorly connected streets

• Auto-oriented design

Compact development

• Medium to high densities

• Mixed uses

• Centered development

• Interconnected streets

• Pedestrian & transit

friendly design

Community design influences

travel behavior • Density

• Mix of land uses

• Street design

• Compactness

• Distance to transit

• Parking (supply, mgt. and

pricing)

Source: Cool Planning: A Handbook on

Local Strategies to Slow Climate

Change, Oregon Transportation & GMP

25% difference in compact

vs. sprawling metros

Average Daily

Vehicle Miles

Traveled

Why do communities differ in

driving behavior? • New York - 3658 VMT per capita

• Portland – 4403 VMT per capita

• Jackson – 8182 VMT per capita

Projected 2030 Savings from

Compact Development

• Shifting 60% of new growth to compact

patterns saves 85 million tons of CO’2 by 2030

• Would be equal to a 28% increase in CAFÉ

Standards to 32mpg by 2020 (but benefits would

extend well beyond)

• Fuel cost savings annually by 2030 – at

least $24 billion (cumulative $250 billion)

• Source: Smart Growth America

Affordability: Where the Rubber Meets the Road

Source: A Heavy Load: The Combined Housing & Transportation Burdens of Working

Families, Center for Housing Policy, October 2006

Other reasons to choose compact

development as a GHG strategy

• Energy independence

• Better public health

• Community revitalization & preservation

• More living options and choices

• A net economic benefit

• We have the technology!

Many climate change solutions are theoretical,

very expensive or potentially dangerous

Walkable Development is a Low

Cost Climate Change Strategy

• Compact development can cut driving by 20 % to 40% percent.

• We already have the technology to build walkable communities.

• Pursuing compact development involves shifting investments that have to be built anyway.

• Walkable communities can save people money and improve public health.

Source: Growing Cooler: Evidence on Urban Development & Climate Change,

Urban Land Institute, October, 2007

Trend - Transit

• “Highways will continue to play a major

role in American life, but rail transit could

be the glue that makes or breaks cities in

the near future.”

• Builder Magazine, January, 2010

TOD May Outperform Green Buildings

• “Transit oriented development

is the key to cutting energy

consumption – even more so

than Energy Star construction

or green cars according to a

peer reviewed study just

released by the US EPA.”

• Source: Location Efficiency

and Housing Type – Boiling it

Down to BTU’s, US EPA, 2011

Pearl District, Portland, OR

Mixing Uses –

A Key

to Sustainability

Here is the good news!

• “People who live in walkable mixed use communities drive almost 30 percent less than people who live in conventional settings.”

• Sources: Georgia Tech

University and University of British Columbia

Reasons for Market Demand for Walkable, Mixed

Use Neighborhoods

• Rising costs for gasoline & transportation

• Baby boomers becoming empty nesters

• 75% of households have no school age

children

• Boredom with conventional development

• Demand greatly exceeds supply

• Gen Xers like urban lifestyles (short

commutes, nightlife, etc.)

Americans favor walkable, mixed-

use neighborhoods

• 77% want neighborhoods with abundant sidewalks

and other pedestrian facilities.

• 88% placed more value on quality of neighborhood

than the size of the house.

• 59% would choose a smaller house, if it meant less

driving.

• 73% of young adults (35 or younger) favor

neighborhoods with a mix of house and businesses

over areas with housing only.

• Source: National Association of Realtors Survey, February, 2011

The Pendulum Swings on How America Invests

40% of our wealth

Walkable

Urbanity Choice Drivable

Suburban

Post 1945

Mid 1990’s

Source: University of Michigan, Graduate Real Estate Program

The Changing Market ?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

East

West

North

• Pent-up demand for urban

living is evident in housing

prices.

• Urban residential space goes

for 40 to 200 percent more per

sq. foot than traditional

suburban space in cities all

across US

• Walkable suburban

neighborhoods command large

price premiums over driveable

suburbs.

• Source: Christopher Leinberger,

Atlantic Monthly – March 2008

What’s the future of suburbia?

Barnes & Noble, Rockville Pike, MD Barnes and Noble, Bethesda, MD

“Going forward the distance between where we

live and work will matter more and attractive mixed

use places (in both cities and suburbs) that offer

more convenient lifestyles will benefit.”

Rockville, MD – Town Center

Walkable Suburbs

• Workers in Bethesda, MD walk or use transit for 74% of their non-commute trips (errands, lunch, shopping, etc)

• Workers in Germantown, MD (an auto oriented suburb) use the car for 90 % of their non-commute trips.

• Source: US Department of

Transportation

Driving or Walking?

• Source: Belden, Russonello &

Stewart – Americans Attitudes

Toward Walking and Creating

Better Walking Communities,

Surface Transportation Policy

Project, 2005

Community Amenities Sought by Homebuyers

Walking trails/bike paths - 36%

Parks/natural areas - 26%

Playgrounds - 21%

Daycare - 14%

Soccer Fields - 9%

Golf Course - 6%

- April 2004

National Association of Realtors

National Assn. of Homebuilders

The Opportunity

The New Promised

Land?

Tear Up Parking Lot, Rebuild Paradise

• Large, flat, well drained site

• Major infrastructure in place

• 4 lane highway frontage, transit ready

• Saves rural land

• Committed to mixed use

• Can turn NIMBY’s into YIMBY’s

• 2.8 million acres of greyfields will be available in next 15 years

We Can Go From This:

Spread Out

Single Use

Drivable Only

To This!

Compact

Mixed-Use

Walkable

We Can Go From This

To This

But will Americans accept the

higher densities that come with

more compact, mixed use

Development?

Americans Don’t Like 2 Things

• Too Much Sprawl • Too Much Density

Overcoming Opposition to Density

Requires

• High Quality Design • Greening Our Cities

Density Requires Good Design

& Compensating Amenity

Density Comparisons

Charleston, SC – 8.3 units per acre Sun City, AZ – 5.0 units per acre

Density Comparisons

Las Vegas, 37.4 Units per acre New Orleans, 38.9 units per acre

Higher-Density Can Be Attractive &

Valuable

As we densify our communities we

must simultaneously green our

communities

Minneapolis Park System Metro St. Louis Greenway Plan

How Do We Green A City? Street Trees Green Parking Lots

Green Roofs Greenways

How Do You Green A City? Green Sound Walls Community Gardens

Rain Gardens Urban Agriculture

Urban Parks

Where is the most valuable land in New York ?

Arlington, VA – Before & After

Arlington, VA - 1960 Arlington, VA - 2000

5 Metro Stations in Arlington, VA

Undisturbed

Undisturbed

Undisturbed

Undisturbed

5 Metro Stations in Arlington, VA

Outcomes in Arlington

• 73% of Metro patrons walk to transit; almost

60,000 daily trips.

• 43% of residents near stations take transit to

work.

• 14% of Arlington residents do not own cars;

triple the regional average.

• Rosslyn-Ballston Corridor produces 40% of

county real estate tax revenue from 8% of land.

• Arlington County has lowest unemployment rate

in nation.

Keys to Success in Arlington

• Took full advantage of transit investment.

• Put a rope around density.

• Engaged citizens and responded to them for

the long-haul.

• Responded to the market (Gen Y, retirees,

single women, couples with no children)

• Demanded high quality design (underground

utilities, public art, neighborhood parks,

tough sign control, etc.)

Lessons Learned

• Green Development has many dimensions: building design, site planning and design, and community design.

• There have been 15 years of experimentation & exploration in the US. Costs go down as experience goes up.

• Sustainability can not be accomplished with a business as usual approach.

• The marketplace – consumers, lenders and approval agencies are increasingly interested in sustainability and will pay for it, especially if it provides a return on their investment

• Communities and projects that go green will have a competitive advantage going forward.

Horatio Nelson Jackson - 1903

• 8000 cars

• No Gas Stations

• No Parking lots

• No highway departments

• No paved roads

• Horses were the primary

mode of travel

1st cross country trip by auto

Twenty Years later - 1923

• 10 million cars

• 100,000 miles of

paved roads

• Every state had a

highway department

• Gas stations and

parking lots transform

cities

• Horses a thing of the

past Traffic Jam , New York City - 1923

Thank you

Ed McMahon

Urban Land Institute

emcmahon@uli.org