Carboeurope Update of synthesis of continental carbon fluxes Dourdan carboocean 2008 meeting.
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Transcript of Carboeurope Update of synthesis of continental carbon fluxes Dourdan carboocean 2008 meeting.
Carboeurope
Update of synthesis of continental carbon fluxes
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Dourdan carboocean2008 meeting
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Carboeurope synthesis top-down / bottom upBalance-final
Area (Million km2)
NBP (Tg C yr-1)
Standard deviation NBP (TgG C yr-1)
NBP (Tg C yr-1)
Coeff.of variance (%) or range (Tg C yr-1)
Area (Million km2)
NBP (Tg C yr-1)
Coeff.of variance (%) or range (Tg C yr-1)
Top-downNet atm. Flux -1665 -1272 -1160 to -1477 -947 -940 to -1160Fossil fuels -1870 -1600 - -1060
Trade balance 20 17 to 23 24 21 to 27Top-down CO2
balance 205 630 to -180 328 113Non-CO2 C-gases -76 -38 to -114 -32 -16 to -48
Top-down terrestrial C balance 252 419 to 11 81 125 to -139
Bottom-upforest biomass 157 30% 80 30%
Forest soil 3,39 363 159 47 47% 1,45 29 35%Other wooded land 0,50 14 7 16 45% 0,16 5 60%
Grassland 1,51 101 133 85 135% 0,57 32 135%Cropland 3,26 -300 186 -33 95% 1,08 -11 95%
Undisturbed peat 0,39 13 7 7 1.7 to 17 0,09 3 90%Drained peat 0,16 -30 15 -24 -20 to -42 0,15 -13 90%
Extracted Peat -50 10 -50 10% -7 20%Land use change 60 50% 20 50%
Products and landfills 24 12 24 50% 3 50%Bottom-up CO2
balance 9,21 135 420 to -150 288 66% 3,50 141 66%
CH4-agriculture* -38 -28CH4-industry* -103 -46
Bottom-upterrestrial surface
sink (excl.N2O) 147 49% 67 40%
N2O agriculture* -87 -70N2O industry* -16 -12
Bottom-up terrestrial surface sink (inc.
N2O) 44 98% -15 62%Average (top-down +
bottom-up)/2 (exc.N2O) 200 74
* Russian Federation corrected for Siberia,
25% of area is in European Russia
Continental Europe EU-25
Continental Europe by CarboEurope-IP EU-25
Janssens et al. 2003continental Europe
River fluxes of C of atm origin not counted (NBP or old pools ?)
Coastal seas (Ciais et al. 2008 after Borges et al. 68 TgC sink for European coastal seas)
Ocean - land Northern hemisphere budget
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in the Northern Hemisphere
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More than 70% of the northern land C sink is in forest
Now we have too much land NH uptakeWe need ocean regional C budgets !
Stephens et al. new inversions 1.5 ± 0.6 total NH sink
Total NH land
2 Pg C y-1
ICOSIntegrated Carbon Observing System
Dourdan carboocean2008 meeting
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Objectives of ICOS
• Establish an integrated long-term research infrastructure to understand the biogeochemical cycles of greenhouse gases
• Determine regional fluxes from observations and attribute them to processes (≈10 km each day)
• To enable early detection of surprises
• Provide regional budget information for policy support
• Provide access and services for data and flux products
Objectives
Atmospheric, Ocean and Ecosystem Observations constrain regional fluxes
AtmosphericConcentration Network
Surface Flux dataCarbon pools inventories
Operational informationsystem
Regional fluxes
Long-term observations open new ways to understand the changing carbon cycle
Science, 2003
Nature, 2005
Nature, 2000
Science, 2000
Example, the 2003 heatwave impact on Europe‘s carbon balance
The knowledge challenge
A loss of carbon equivalent to six months of fossil fuel consumption [Ciais et al. Nature, 2005]
Long-term observations help reduce uncertainties of climate-
carbon future projections
Same economic emission scenario[IPCC report, 2007]
Carbon cycle uncertainties Climate uncertainties
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Implementation
Construction2010-2012
R&D , design studies2001-2008
Operational phase> 2012
Carboeurope-IPOther research projectsNational networks
Month 30 :Demonstrationwith few sites
Month 24: Select atmospheric and ecosystem sensors
Month 36 : Draft of legal status & governance
Month 48: Final network assessment stations Implementation Plan
Month 24 Decision on locations of:Central facilities
Month 36: Expenditure and ressource plan
Month 12 : User survey and requirement, data providers, data handling strategy
Preparation2008-2011
Implementation
Previous steps
• ESFRI European Roadmap (2006)• Preparatory Phase program (2008-2011)
– Atmospheric station prototype– Ecosystem station protoytype– Network design– Central facilities design / prototypes– Demonstration experiment– Legal organization and governance– Countries engagement– Ocean component ?
Progress• Active network of National Focal Points• First Meeting with stakeholders (May, 2008)
– Presentation of the project– National cost estimates– First version of network geometry
• Countries Engagement– Proposal submitted in NL– Early engagement in FR– Positive signs in other countries
• Network design– Concept of Level-1 and Level-2 sites established– First idea of network geometry
• Atmospheric instruments testing (Sep, 2008)• Ecosystem parameters/sensors cost estimate (Apr, 2008)• Legal organisation first steps (Sep, 2008)
– Consultations have started– ERI model being analyzed
The ICOS elements
Ecosystem Thematic
Centre
Coordination Office
Carbon Portal
ICOS Stakeholders ICOS Central facilities
Quality controlTrainingSensors developt
Atmospheric stations
CalibrationSampleanalysis
Greenhouse fluxesAssessments
International programs IPCC, WMO, GEOSS
Global Networks GEOSS
Data from connex projectsAnd international networks
Ocean Thematic
Centre
Oceanships
and stations
Ecosystemstations
Central Analytical Laboratory
Atmospheric Thematic
Centre
Ocean implementation
plan being defined
Strategy into ICOS:
• Reduce the cost and increase the accuracy
• Harmonized protocols• All air samples analyzed
in same place• 14C measurements• Standard equipment• Central data processing
Carboocean andCarboeurope atmospheric network
The denseEuropean network …
… has high‚biodiversity‘
Present status
The NOAA/CMDL US networkPresent status
Error reduction on June-to-August fluxes using atmospheric data
Small network (FP-5) Larger network (FP-7)
The ICOS elements: ecosystems
Ecosystem Thematic
Centre
Coordination Office
Carbon Portal
ICOS Stakeholders ICOS Central facilities
Quality controlTrainingSensors developt
Atmospheric stations
Greenhouse fluxesAssessments
International programs IPCC, WMO, GEOSS
Global Networks GEOSS
Data from connex projectsAnd international networks
Ocean Thematic
Centre
Oceanships
and stations
Ecosystemstations
Central Analytical Laboratory
Atmospheric Thematic
Centre
Building a European leadership in the global flux tower network
• Sites in regions of interest to Europe : Africa, Siberia• Collaborations with other countries• The US network AMERIFLUX is moving to operational infrastructure
(NEON)
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Ecosystems Atmosphere
ICOS network 2015, the vision
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Ocean : observation plan A. Watson, 2008
Central analytical laboratories
• Central high-precision gas analysis laboratory reduces „bias“
• Air samples analysis for the whole network
• Provides standards that are essential for abslute calibration of the network
• Radiocarbon central facility, provides high-precision atmospheric 14C analyses for the whole ICOS network
• Ring tests globally
Elements
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Thematic centers• Coordination of data
gathering activities
• Online data processing and QC
• Technical and logistical assistance to the network
• New sensors development and testing
• Atmosphere, land and ocean complementary thematic centers
• Mirror of GMES strategy
ICOS Data Centre (Carbon Portal)• One-stop-shop for GHG data
– User interface– Open access policy
• Ecosystem data– Near real time products– Multi-data visualization interface– Tools for cross sites analysis
• Atmospheric data– Near real time data products– Long term products– Quick look tools
• Ancillary data– Fossil fuel emission maps– Biomass and soil C inventories– Remote sensing– Process studies
• Flux products– Routine flux diagnostics– Trend analysis– Outreach and Policy information
www.icos-infrastructure.eu
Example of flux products
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www.icos-infrastructure.eu
Example of flux products
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ICOS Governance
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Financial engineering
Cost estimate = a 10th of a permil of the natural ‘subsidy’
The ICOS Ocean component
Ocean implementation
plan being defined
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Variables and precision requirementsInstrumentsGroups that will be involvedData architecture and managementData center(s)Governance and funding
Expected uncertainty reductionprovided by OCOfor the estimation of CO2 fluxes1-sig(post)/sig(prior)Chevallier et al., 2007
Forthcoming satellite instruments
NASA OCO
Satellite0 - ~ 100km
10
1
0.01
0.1
Free Troposphere
Stratosphere
Boundary layer
Tall tower (~500m)
Aircraft(0-20km)
Linking surface networks to upper air and space observations
100
alti
tud
e (k
m)
Surface air sampling
OCOGOSAT
CO2
column densityfrom
space & ground
FTIR : GEOMON + IMECC