Car accident repairshops
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Transcript of Car accident repairshops
Data Collection – Vehicle Crashes Collected 1,048,575 records of vehicle crashes in New York from 2009 to 2012.(https://data.ny.gov/Transportation/Motor-Vehicle-Crashes-Case-Information-Beginning-2/e8ky-4vqe)
Queens
New York
Bronx
Hempstead
# of crashes in 2012(Group by municipality)
Day of Week vs. Time in a Day (Weekday) Vehicle crashes in weekday has two peaks in a day (about 8:00 and 17:00)
Day of Week vs. Time in a Day (Weekend) Vehicle crashes in weekend has only one peak in a day (after 12:00 pm)
Collision Type vs. Weather Condition The part of a car is hit the most under the normal weather condition (clear, cloudy, rain) are in Rear and Right Angle
Collision Type vs. Weather Condition The part of a car is hit the most under the unclear weather (snow, sleet, fog) have the same ratio of collision types
Data Mining
Problem: What factors cause multiple vehicle crashes
Output variables:
If this crash has more than 3 cars involved
Input variables:
Lighting Conditions
Road Descriptor
Traffic Control Device
Road Surface Conditions
Year, Day of Week, Time
Modeling: Bayes Point, Logistics Regression, Decision
Forest, Neural Network, SVM
Model Result – Bayes Point as an Example
RecallROC Curve
Prec
isio
n
Top 3 variables: Traffic Control Device, Time and Lighting condition
Variable Contribution
Model Result Comparison
SVM
Neural Network
Logits Regression
Decision Forest
Choose Logistic Regression as the optimal model
Lighting Conditions and Traffic Control Device are the most important factors
Variable Contribution