Car accident repairshops

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  1. 1. Data Collection Vehicle Crashes Collected 1,048,575 records of vehicle crashes in New York from 2009 to 2012. (https://data.ny.gov/Transportation/Motor-Vehicle-Crashes-Case-Information-Beginning-2/e8ky-4vqe) Queens New York Bronx Hempstead # of crashes in 2012 (Group by municipality)
  2. 2. Day of Week vs. Time in a Day (Weekday) Vehicle crashes in weekday has two peaks in a day (about 8:00 and 17:00)
  3. 3. Day of Week vs. Time in a Day (Weekend) Vehicle crashes in weekend has only one peak in a day (after 12:00 pm)
  4. 4. Collision Type vs. Weather Condition The part of a car is hit the most under the normal weather condition (clear, cloudy, rain) are in Rear and Right Angle
  5. 5. Collision Type vs. Weather Condition The part of a car is hit the most under the unclear weather (snow, sleet, fog) have the same ratio of collision types
  6. 6. Data Mining Problem: What factors cause multiple vehicle crashes Output variables: If this crash has more than 3 cars involved Input variables: Lighting Conditions Road Descriptor Traffic Control Device Road Surface Conditions Year, Day of Week, Time Modeling: Bayes Point, Logistics Regression, Decision Forest, Neural Network, SVM
  7. 7. Model Result Bayes Point as an Example RecallROC Curve Precision Top 3 variables: Traffic Control Device, Time and Lighting condition Variable Contribution
  8. 8. Model Result Comparison SVM Neural Network Logits Regression Decision Forest Choose Logistic Regression as the optimal model Lighting Conditions and Traffic Control Device are the most important factors Variable Contribution
  9. 9. Number of Repair Shops in New York Collected 3,836 records of repair shops in New York