Captain (Ret) Francisco A. ARIAS-ISAZA Director General

INVEMAR francisco.arias@invemar.org.co

www.invemar.org.co

Future Climate Change Cambios de intensidad y

frecuencia de los eventos climáticos extremos.

Temperature increase by

2100

Disminución en el pH de los océanos

Aumento en el nivel medio del mar

2.6 -4.8°C

Climate change in Colombia: Advances in scientific knowledge

Analysis Vulnerability of the coastal zone sea level.

Vulnerability analysis at the local level (Cartagena city y Tumaco)

Formulation of climate change plans for Cartagena city and San Andres Island

Implementing a National Sub-System of Marine Protected Areas (SAMP Acronym in Spanish)

2000-2003

2008-2009

2010-2014

2011-2017

Contributions to national policy

SISCLIMA (Decreto 298/2016) Intended Nationally Determined Contributions-

INDC National plan for adaptation to climate change

Reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation - REDD+

National Adaptation Project (INAP). 2004-2011

Contributions First National Communication UNFCCCUCC. 2001

Contributions Second National Communication UNFCCCUCC. 2010

Analysis Vulnerability of the coastal zone – Third National Communication UNFCCCUCC.

2014

PACIFIC: 6400 km2≈ 21.000 habitants (28%)

CARIBBEAN: 4900 km2 ≈

590.000 habitants (72%)

Escala 1:300.000Escala 1:300.000Escala 1:300.000Escala 1:300.000

SEAFLOWER: 4.58 km2

Cays 100% affected (deepening coral reefs) Islands of SAI and PVA 73%

1:300.000

VULNERABILITY TO SLR (1M TO 2100)

Tide range 3-4m

Tide range 0.3-0.5m

Climate change and biodiversity in Colombia: main impacts

Escala 1:300.000Escala 1:300.000Escala 1:300.000Escala 1:300.000

60 coastal municipalities at risk of flooding to sea level rise.

Mangrove migration with sea-level rise. Aprox. 5% of mangrove areas at risk of coastal erosion. Most affected áreas: Cienaga Grande of Santa Marta,

gulf of Morrosquillo, Gulf of Uraba Cauca Valley and Cauca.

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) between 1981-2005: 24 - 28°C.

Increase in SST 1 a 2 °C would cause thermal stress on corals (Mumby et al., 2014; Kim et al., 2000).

Most affected areas: Gulf of Morrosquillo, Chocó-Sur, Valle del Cauca and Cauca.

Sea level rise (1m): 2100 Sea Surface Temperature (SST): 1981-2005

Climate change and biodiversity in Colombia: main impacts

Ocean acidification On a global scale, coral reefs are currently in

places where the Omega of Aragonite (Ω) reaches levels> 3.5.

These conditions exist in approximately 50% of the oceans, mainly in the tropics.

In Colombia the Omega of Aragonite (Ω) saturation data, between the years 1999-2013 fluctuate in a range of 3.45-3.9 in the Caribbean and 2.8-3 in the Colombian Pacific, indicating that the calcium carbonate is available in the water column.

Advances to adaptation y mitigation climate change Consolidation of Sub-System of Marine Protected Areas (SAMP)

The SAMP has contributed to improving the Index of health of the oceans.

8.9% of the marine and coastal areas under protection in 35 AMP of which 11 are new areas.

31.10% 25.90%

96.50%

11.60%

29%

1.40%

33.90% 27.83%

96.50%

22.64% 32%

64%

0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%90.00%

100.00%

Mangroves Seagrass Coral reef Beach Coastal Cliff Deep watercoral

Baseline level (2010) 2016

Change in ecological representativeness of key coastal and marine ecosystems in MPA.

Advances to adaptation y mitigation climate change

Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA): New scientific approach and conceptual link between marine ecosystems and coastal planning and Mitigation: REDD+ Methodological approach created and applied in pilot project taking place in DMI Cispatá. Local communities oriented.

Plan REDD+ DMI Cispata

In process of certification from Standard Plan Vivo

CHALLENGES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH IN COLOMBIA Scale of the data - Downscaling. Increase “meteocean stations”.

Develop specific scenarios for SLR, SST, pH, etc. in detail for key coastal areas.

Establish a “sentinel-ecosystems” network-strategy

“Blue carbon” research is urgent in systems like seagrasses (ex. 4,200 and 8,400

million tons of carbon just one meter deep - 8,400 million CO2 is what all human beings emit over a year).

Acidification research must be a priority. Biogeochemical processes high influence in biodiversity stability (ex. Corals, hard shelled organisms).

Describe deterioration patterns of ecosystems (Coral reef, Mangroves, Dunes, Beaches), fish communities, and landuse in relation with climate change impacts.

Improve capabilities for monitoring and analysis on coastal and marine ecosystems at local level (Caribbean and Pacific particularities).

Develop new applications to include local population (ex.“smart devices” in order to exchange data in real time)

Sectoral vs Integrated Planning and Long Term Planning

Integration between decission makers – scientists - local comunities

Investments vs. Sustainablity: not only “hard engineering” ECOSYSTEM-BASED ADAPTATION is the option for developing countries

CHALLENGES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH IN COLOMBIA

Gracias

Contacto: CN Francisco Arias

Director General INVEMAR

francisco.arias@invemar.org.co www.invemar.org.co