CAPRI CAPRI

EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen

Content

• What is CAPRI ?

• CAPRI data base

• Data Sources

• Data Compilation

• Data Coverage

• The economic Model

• Structure

• Projection approach

• Some results

CAPRI CAPRI

EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen

What is CAPRI ?

• Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact analysis

• on regionalised level (NUTS II)

• on whole agricultural sector:

all outputs/inputs covered

• based on a quantitative economic modelling system

• developed and maintained

by an independent network of research institutions

• mainly funded by DG-RSRCH framework programs

CAPRI CAPRI

EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen

CAPRI Modelling system

• Modelling system consists of

• Regionalised data base

• Supply Module

• Market Module

• Exploitation and Reporting tools

CAPRI CAPRI

EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen

CAPRI data base

• Combines consistently time series

• at EU/national/regional/farm type level

• on herds/acreages, production, market balances

• on prices, economic accounts

• on input & output coefficients

• on policy instruments

CAPRI CAPRI

EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen

Data sources• As far as possible uniform sources

• EUROSTAT: market balances, slaughtering statistics,

land use statistics, herd countings

• Farm Accounting Data Network:Production program for farm type module,Estimation of input demand functions

• Gaps closed by regional and national statistics

• Input/Output relations, emission coefficients etc. from different sources

CAPRI CAPRI

EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen

Data compilation

• Own “base model” ensures consistent and closed data base

• Gaps are closed and inconsistencies removed

• by simultaneous estimation techniques

• under constraints capturing consistency requirements

CAPRI CAPRI

EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen

Data coverage for Herd Sizes I

• Animal herds for• dairy cows, other cows• cattle raising (male & female calves, raising heifers)• sows• milk sheep & goat• laying hens

yearly averages over all available countings

CAPRI CAPRI

EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen

Data coverage for Herd Sizes II

• Slaughtered heads for

• calves fattening (male/female)• male adult fattening (male/female)• pig fattening• sheep & goat fattening• poultry fattening

• estimates regarding the length of production cycle allow calculation of herd sizes

CAPRI CAPRI

EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen

Consistency requirements

• Intertemporal flow model for herds: Slaughtered + herd size changes + exported animals = raised/born animals in t(-1) + imported animals

• Slaughter weight * slaughtered heads = production

• Market balances for meats, milk, eggs

• Fat and protein balances for milk and milk products

• Plausible number of siblings (cows, sows, mother sheep&goat)

• Male/Female relationship for calves

• Plausible slaughter weights and output coefficients

CAPRI CAPRI

EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen

Herd flow model for cattle

Beef

Beef

Veal

RaisingfemaleCalves

Fatteningmale

Calves

BreedingHeifers

Milk Cows Suckler

Cows

Male adultcattle

High/Low

FatteningHeifers

High/Low

FatteningfemaleCalves

Raisingmale

Calves

MaleCalf

Youngheifer

Youngbull

Youngcow

FemaleCalf

CAPRI CAPRI

EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen

Ammonia Emissions

Nitrogenfrom animals

CropN Need

NH3Mineral N

Grazing

stableNH3

NH3

storageNH3

Organic Napplication

NH3

CAPRI CAPRI

EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen

Market Module

SpatialMulti-Commodity Model11 regional aggregatesplus all EU MS States

Young AnimalMarket Module

Linked MSProgramming Models

Supply Module

200 Regional or1050 Farm Type

Programming Models

Perennial Sub-Module

Policy Modules

CAP Premiums(base areas, ...)

AggregatedSupply &

Feed demand

AggregationHerds

Acreages

PricesPremiums

Exploitation

Env. IndicatorsWelfare analysisFEOGA budget

Modelling system

CAPRI CAPRI

EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen

Projections

• “Baseline”:

developments of agricultural markets, prices,yields, input demand, cropping patterns, herd sizes ...

under continuation of current policy setting

• model mechanism + trend analysis+ judgement + careful look at other projections

• model ensures closed balances for inputs and outputs (including nutrients, feed and young animals)

• and matching price developments

CAPRI CAPRI

EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen

Reporting

• Java based Mapping tool

• HTML reporting tools (XML + XSL)

• Tables in DBMS

CAPRI CAPRI

EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen

Stocking density with cattle

heads/ha UAAR, average 1994

CAPRI CAPRI

EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen

Methane emissions from animals

In kg/ha UAA, average 1998

CAPRI CAPRI

EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen

Methane emissions from animals

Kg/ha UAAPercentage change, 2009/1998